Evening Briefing: Saturday 16 May 2026
- Israel launched its first wave of airstrikes on Hezbollah infrastructure in southern Lebanon since Friday’s 45-day ceasefire extension, issuing evacuation orders for nine villages and a Hezbollah drone toward Israel triggered sirens near Meron. The ceasefire is being implemented as a low-intensity, “porous” truce, not a halt in fighting; petrol forecourt prices and energy-related inflation are unlikely to ease before a parallel Iran-track breakthrough.
- The Times reports that the United States and Israel are conducting their most intense preparations to renew the air campaign against Iran “as soon as next week”, citing two Middle Eastern officials. Options under consideration include conquering Iran’s Kharg Island oil hub and putting commandos onto the mainland to extract enriched uranium — with the senior Israeli official telling Israeli television: “We’ll know more in 24 hours.”
- Former Health Secretary Wes Streeting confirmed at the Progress conference in London that he “will be standing” in any Labour leadership contest. With Burnham’s NEC-approved selection process closing on Monday and the Makerfield by-election expected on 18 June, the field is now formally a contest rather than a coronation — markets will price the rival policy programmes through next week’s Treasury yield curve.
IDF Strikes Hezbollah for First Time Since Ceasefire Extension
The Israel Defense Forces said on Saturday that it had launched a wave of airstrikes on Hezbollah infrastructure in southern Lebanon — the first since Friday’s 45-day ceasefire extension. The IDF issued evacuation warnings for nine village…
US and Israel Prepping to Renew Iran War Next Week, NYT Reports
Two Middle Eastern officials said in an interview that Israel and the United States are carrying out their most intense preparations yet to renew attacks on Iran, possibly as soon as next week, the Times of Israel reported. Options reporte…
Hamas Military-Wing Leader Al-Haddad Killed in Gaza Strike
An Israeli airstrike in Gaza on Friday killed Izz al-Din al-Haddad, the leader of Hamas’s military wing and “one of the last surviving architects” of the 7 October 2023 attacks, the Israeli military said on Saturday; Hamas spokesperson Haz…
Iran Demands Guarantees Against Future Strikes; CENTCOM Redirects 75 Ships
The Institute for the Study of War’s Iran Update for 15 May assesses that senior Iranian officials “continue to demand guarantees against future US-Israeli attacks as a precondition for negotiations, and the Iranian regime likely views rec…
Lebanon Civilian Toll Rises to 2,969 Killed, 9,112 Wounded Since March
Lebanon’s Ministry of Public Health updated the cumulative casualty toll on Saturday to 2,969 killed and 9,112 wounded since 2 March, when Hezbollah’s missile fire at Israel three days into the US-Israeli war on Iran triggered the renewed…
Streeting: “I Will Be Standing” in Any Labour Leadership Contest
Former Health Secretary Wes Streeting confirmed on Saturday that he will challenge Sir Keir Starmer in any Labour leadership contest. “We need a proper contest with the best candidates on the field, and I will be standing,” Streeting told…
Sunday Times: Business Fears “Raynernomics” Under Burnham
Business and the markets are “adopting the brace position” in case Angela Rayner’s economic programme — redistributionist, with higher taxes on the better-off and on businesses — becomes a reality under a Labour leader of the soft left. Ec…
Guardian Analysis: Starmer Now Looks Like an “Interim Leader”
Steve Reed, the housing secretary and one of the Prime Minister’s closest cabinet allies, said in an interview: “There is no contest. ‘Moves’ mean nothing. People need 81 nominations to stand against the prime minister.” The Guardian’s wee…
CNBC/Eurasia: 80% Probability Starmer Ousted This Year
Eurasia Group analysts have raised the probability of Sir Keir Starmer being ousted this year to 80%, up from 65% previously, with a 35% probability that MPs force a leadership election by September, a 25% probability of an orderly transit…
Reuters in Makerfield: Voters Split Between Burnham and Reform
Reuters dispatched a correspondent to Ashton-in-Makerfield where voters are split between Andy Burnham and Reform UK. Former miner Anthony McCormack said he would back Burnham because he is “the right man for the job” and would “100%” make…