Iran Demands Guarantees Against Future Strikes; CENTCOM Redirects 75 Ships
The Institute for the Study of War’s Iran Update for 15 May assesses that senior Iranian officials “continue to demand guarantees against future US-Israeli attacks as a precondition for negotiations, and the Iranian regime likely views recognised control over the Strait of Hormuz as one such guarantee”. US Central Command announced that US forces have redirected 75 commercial vessels and disabled four since the blockade began on 13 April; Al Jazeera’s Saturday live coverage cited an updated CENTCOM figure of 78 ships redirected.
IRGC Baghiyatollah Sociocultural Headquarters Commander Major General Mohammad Ali Jafari said on 14 May that the United States must satisfy Iranian “confidence-building” measures before Iran will negotiate — his statements reflect the negotiating position of IRGC Commander Ahmad Vahidi. ISW also flags that Iran appears to have deprioritised toll collection at Hormuz to encourage states such as China to cooperate with Iranian transit procedures and implicitly recognise its control. The People’s Republic of China “does not appear to have made a clear commitment to support US efforts to secure freedom of navigation”, despite Trump’s public claims. President Putin held diplomacy-track talks today with UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed.