CNBC/Eurasia: 80% Probability Starmer Ousted This Year
Eurasia Group analysts have raised the probability of Sir Keir Starmer being ousted this year to 80%, up from 65% previously, with a 35% probability that MPs force a leadership election by September, a 25% probability of an orderly transition and a 20% probability of an immediate election. Jordan Rochester, head of EMEA fixed-income strategy at Mizuho, told CNBC: “For many, the writing is on the wall at this stage, it’s just a matter of how quickly the exit happens.”
Deutsche Bank strategists told CNBC that the rise in UK 10- and 30-year borrowing costs — to 5% and 5.67% respectively on the day of their analysis — reflected market concerns that a new Labour leader “may face pressure to ease the fiscal rules and raise gilt issuance”. Friday’s subsequent sell-off pushed those yields higher still, to 5.18% and 5.85% per The Times. The Eurasia Group framing is the most institutional articulation that markets are now pricing the Labour-leadership question as a binding policy variable, not an internal party dispute, with knock-on consequences for the autumn Budget.