Evening Briefing
What It Means For You
- Brent fell almost 8% today to about $105 a barrel; if the slide holds, pressure on petrol and heating costs should ease in the coming weeks.
- Economists unanimously expect Bank Rate to rise to 4% on Thursday, which would push up tracker and variable mortgage payments, though savers should see better rates.
- Migrants on the route to settlement now face a default ten-year wait unless they meet earnings or public-service thresholds; those earning over £50,271 can still settle after five years.
GEO Geopolitical
Oil plunges as Rubio signals Washington prefers peaceful end to war
Brent crude fell 7.7% to $104.66 a barrel by midday in New York after Marco Rubio said President Trump “hasn’t made a decision” on renewed military action and that the administration “would prefer to do it peacefully”. West Texas Intermediate slid below $97. Abbas Araghchi said an agreement was achievable if Washington “demonstrates goodwill”.
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Iranian delegation leaves Qatar amid fears of post-midterm strikes
Qatari mediators met Iranian officials on Sunday for a third consecutive day in an effort to restart direct talks with Washington. Tehran says it has a two-day plan to halt attacks on Hormuz shipping and resume negotiations, contingent on the American response. The region is braced for possible US and Israeli strikes shortly after Tuesday’s midterm elections.
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Election chief rejects Likud bid to delay certifying Israeli result
Justice Noam Sohlberg refused a Likud request to postpone certification of the election, ruling that the Central Elections Committee has no authority to withhold results or intervene in an ongoing investigation. Avigdor Liberman said he would not serve with Benjamin Netanyahu “under any circumstances”. Anti-Netanyahu parties hold 67 of 120 Knesset seats.
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Coordinated cyberattacks sabotage supermarket fridges across six European countries
Hackers seized refrigeration control systems at supermarket chains in Sweden, the Netherlands, Belgium, Ireland, Luxembourg and Estonia, switching evaporators to defrost mode and spoiling food. Affected chains include ICA, Coop, Ahold Delhaize, Colruyt and Carrefour; thirteen Musgrave SuperValu stores in Ireland were hit.
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Yotova becomes Bulgaria’s first elected female president
Acting President Iliana Yotova won Sunday’s run-off with 57.6% of the vote against 39.5% for the liberal Andrey Gyurov, who conceded. Yotova said she had voted “for national consensus through dialogue, for institutions that work for citizens”. She will be inaugurated on 22 January for a five-year term.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Mahmood unveils earned settlement, doubling default wait to ten years
Shabana Mahmood set out rules ending near-automatic settlement after five years. The default qualifying period rises to ten years; the highest earners may settle within three, while those earning over £50,271 and some public servants, including doctors, nurses and teachers, keep five. Those who breached immigration rules face at least twenty.
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Bank of England expected to raise rates for first time since 2023
All 35 economists in a Bloomberg survey expect the Monetary Policy Committee to raise Bank Rate to 4% from 3.75% on Thursday, its first increase in more than three years. Ten-year gilt yields fell to their lowest since 22 September, around 5.2%, as oil retreated.
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FTSE 100 edges higher as BP and Shell slide with crude
The FTSE 100 closed up 0.29% at 10,761.33, while the domestically focused FTSE 250 gained 1.4%. BP fell 4.4% and Shell 3.3% as oil tumbled; Ryanair rose 3.5%. Sterling firmed to $1.3415. October manufacturing PMI rose to 52.8, a five-month high.
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Commons committee says government has failed to deliver China strategy
The Business and Trade Committee’s first report on doing business with China concludes the government has not delivered its 2024 promise of a strategic, long-term approach. Ministers began re-engagement “without having finalised its China audit or published a strategy”, the 102-page report says.
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Badenoch rejects slavery reparations, provoking Antigua’s prime minister
Kemi Badenoch said the Chogm summit was “yet another opportunity for people to start asking Britain for money because of the slave trade”, adding that Andy Burnham should not apologise. Antigua’s prime minister told ITV News it was “no wonder” she was not prime minister.
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Morning Briefing
What It Means For You
- If you fly with Ryanair next year: its chief executive expects European fares to rise by 10%, “maybe even 20%”, in 2027 as cheap fuel hedges expire. Unhedged jet fuel is at $170 a barrel, and the airline says higher fares will not fully cover a €2bn rise in its fuel bill.
- If you have a mortgage or savings: the Bank of England announces its next rate decision on Thursday 5 November. Bank Rate stands at 3.75%; three of nine committee members voted for 4% in September, and the Bank says the Iran war has pushed up energy prices and inflation.
- If you are a legal migrant, or employ one: the home secretary puts final settlement rules before MPs today. Most applicants are expected to wait ten years rather than five for indefinite leave to remain, some up to fifteen, with social care workers already in the UK likely to be exempt.
GEO Geopolitical
Iran says two tankers hit mines and caught fire in Hormuz
The Revolutionary Guards say two crude tankers struck mines and caught fire in the Strait of Hormuz, two days after a Qatari gas carrier was attacked. President Trump says the war will end “very soon, one way or the other”: “Either they’ll make a deal, or we’ll just end it.” Abbas Araghchi, the foreign minister, says talks with mediators on a two-day plan to reopen the strait continue.
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Israeli election officials reject Netanyahu’s claim the vote was stolen
Israel’s election chief says last Tuesday’s result stands, after the prime minister’s Likud party claimed without evidence that Arab-led parties “stole” the vote with Qatari money. “Even if the suspicions are substantiated, this would not undermine the integrity of the electoral process,” said Noam Sohlberg, appearing with the Shin Bet chief and the attorney general. Qatar calls the allegation “ridiculous and dangerous”.
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Ukrainian and Russian air-raid alert apps hacked as Kherson truce ends
Ukraine’s air-raid alert app sent fake warnings of nuclear and chemical threats around Kyiv on Sunday evening, including a false report that the Oreshnik hypersonic missile had been launched. Hours later Moscow said its own emergencies app had suffered a “massive cyberattack”. Both followed the end of the localised ceasefire in occupied Kherson, the longest of the war.
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Trump makes final pitch as Americans prepare to vote on Tuesday
President Trump closed his midterm campaign with rallies in Florida, Iowa and Kansas — states he once won easily — as polls suggest Democrats could win at least partial control of Congress. Facing anger over prices, he warned that Democrats would “bankrupt your family” and urged supporters to “pretend I’m on the ballot”. Both final speeches were repeatedly interrupted by hecklers.
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Ryanair warns fares could rise 20% as the war’s fuel shock bites
Ryanair’s half-year profit fell 15% to €2.15bn as the cost of its unhedged fuel doubled, and the airline is weighing temporary pay freezes. “Unless there is a swift resolution of the Middle East conflict, we expect jet-fuel prices to remain elevated well into 2027,” said Michael O’Leary, its chief executive, who expects European fares to rise by up to 20% next year.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Mahmood sets out ten-year wait for migrants seeking settlement
The home secretary puts final rules before MPs today under which most legal migrants are expected to wait ten years, not five, for indefinite leave to remain, and some up to fifteen. Social care workers already in the UK are likely to be exempted after Cabinet objections. “To become a part of this country, permanently, is therefore not a right but a privilege,” Shabana Mahmood said.
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Reeves says Britain’s future lies inside the European Union
Rachel Reeves, in her first major intervention since leaving the Treasury, says Brexit made the country “poorer, weaker and less secure”. “I do believe Britain’s future lies in the European Union,” she wrote. Separately, ministers are prepared to spend up to £450m a year letting EU students pay home fees — but only if Brussels admits Britain to its Made in Europe industrial scheme.
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Healey signals delay to equal minimum wage for younger workers
The chancellor, John Healey, has declined to promise that 18 to 20-year-olds will receive the full adult minimum wage before the next election, putting a Labour manifesto pledge in doubt. “We’ll take one step at a time,” he said. From this year the younger rate rises to £11.27 an hour against £13.21 for over-20s.
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MPs warn Britain is making up China policy as it goes along
A Commons committee says Britain’s failure to set a coherent China strategy since 2024 has “combined the worst of both worlds”, leaving businesses without opportunities and security risks unaddressed. Liam Byrne, its Labour chairman, warns the UK risks being “cut off” from big European manufacturing contracts as the EU turns protectionist.
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King to address slavery at Commonwealth summit in Antigua
The King will speak on the transatlantic slave trade with “unflinching honesty, sincere sorrow” when he addresses Commonwealth leaders in Antigua on Tuesday, the Palace says. Andy Burnham has said he is “open” to a formal British apology, though not to reparations. Kemi Badenoch called “endless talk about apologies” a “distraction”.
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Evening Briefing
What It Means For You
- If you have a mortgage or savings: markets expect the Bank to raise rates to 4% from 3.75% on Thursday, which would be the first rise since 2023. That is an expectation rather than a decision. Inflation was 3.5% in September, the energy cap rose 3.6% on 1 October, and a further rise of about 22% is forecast for January.
- If you are travelling by train at Christmas: book around ten days of engineering works now. Birmingham New Street closes from Christmas Eve to 29 December, Great Western services terminate at Reading from 27 December to 4 January, and the east coast main line is part-closed on Christmas Eve with buses between Newark and York adding two hours.
- If you follow the Gulf: nothing has been agreed and no date exists for anything. Tehran has cut the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz it is offering from seven days to two, mediation is in its third day, and the American president says one or two nuclear sites remain. Oil rose 2.4% on Friday on that uncertainty.
GEO Geopolitical
“One or Two Sites” Left, as Mediators Cut the Hormuz Window
Speaking to reporters at his Florida club on Saturday, the American president said of Iran: “We’ve knocked out their nuclear. We still have to take care of, I would say one or two sites, but we can do that in 10 minutes.” Meanwhile Qatari mediation entered a third day, and Tehran has cut its offered reopening of the Strait of Hormuz from seven days to two.
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Ebola Passes Five Thousand Deaths, With No Vaccine for This Strain
More than 5,000 people have now died in the Democratic Republic of Congo’s deadliest Ebola outbreak, with more than 10,300 confirmed cases across eight of its 26 provinces. The epicentre is a conflict zone. There is no treatment or vaccine for the species responsible, though trials are under way.
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Oleshky Emptied, and the Ceasefire That Allowed It Ends Tonight
The local truce in Kherson region, the most significant between Kyiv and Moscow since the invasion, is expected to end this evening. It allowed a joint evacuation of the besieged front-line city of Oleshky that finished on Saturday. About 2,000 civilians were there when it began; the number who left has deliberately not been published.
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Tusk Says There Can Be No Compromise on the Polish Court
In a prime-time address on Saturday night, after the riot police we reported yesterday, Poland’s prime minister vowed to see the contested overhaul of the constitutional court through: “in certain matters, there can be no compromise”. He said the tribunal in the form his predecessors imposed “was not a genuine court”.
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Sixteen Minutes of Silence, and the Arrest of a Police Chief
Thousands marched in silence through Novi Sad in the rain today, two years after a station canopy collapsed and killed sixteen people — sixteen minutes of silence, sixteen wreaths. Hours earlier, the head of Serbia’s criminal police, whom student groups accuse of brutality against the protests, was arrested over an unrelated case.
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UK Domestic
An Apology Without Reparations, and a Leader Who Rejects Both
The chancellor confirmed this morning that the apology the prime minister is open to would carry no financial liability: considering one “doesn’t mean accepting that British people now should accept the financial liability” for acts “in which they had no role”. The Conservative leader rejects an apology too, calling it a lever to open the door to cash.
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Starmer Says Europe Can No Longer Rely on American Money
The former prime minister told an audience in Dublin on Friday that the change in Europe’s defence relationship with the United States is permanent, not “an aberration of the Trump presidency”, and that Washington will no longer “bankroll” European security. He called for a common security framework with Britain at its centre.
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325 Arrested Outside the Embassy as the Ban Faces Appeal
The Metropolitan Police say 325 people were arrested at a protest supporting the proscribed group Palestine Action outside the American embassy at Nine Elms on Saturday, 320 of them for expressing support for a proscribed organisation under the Terrorism Act. At least 4,000 arrests have now been made over the group.
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Green Party at a Crossroads After the Zionism Motion
A former Green co-leader says the party is at a “crossroads” and should return to its “core values”, weeks after members adopted a motion defining Zionism as a form of racism. The current leader replied that there is “no environmental justice without social, racial and economic justice”.
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Ten Days of Christmas Rail Works Close Paddington and New Street
Engineering works over the holidays will shut London Paddington, disrupting intercity services to the west of England and Wales into January, and close Birmingham New Street for five days. The east coast main line is partly closed on Christmas Eve. Network Rail says most routes stay open and expects to carry out about £152m of work.
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Weekly Roundup
The stories that defined this week View roundup
The Week In Numbers
- John Healey’s first Budget handed about 20 million households a one-off £100 towards energy bills, at a cost of £2.6bn, paid for by doubling the bank surcharge to 6% for 15 months and lifting the tax on savings and property income to 24%, 44% and 49% from April 2027. The OBR cut its 2027 growth forecast to 1% and expects inflation to peak near 3.75%; the IFS identified a £28bn-a-year gap, and the Resolution Foundation expects typical working-age incomes to fall by £1,050, or 3%, by 2029.
- Technology stocks had their worst week of the autumn. Alphabet shed just over $500bn in a single session on Thursday after warning that AI summaries were eroding search advertising; Intel fell 29% on Friday, its worst day since 1974, and US tech lost more than $1tn in value. The S&P 500 slid 1.8% on Friday to 7,580, while the FTSE 100 held near 10,730 on the strength of Shell’s best quarter since 2022. Gold fell to a one-year low of about $3,875, down 5.9% in October. Brent spiked to $115.59 on a Houthi strike claim against Ras Tanura and finished near $113.
- Binance lost $6.3bn in what is likely the largest exchange hack ever, which the FBI has attributed to North Korea’s Lazarus Group; it says 90% has now been replenished and withdrawals began reopening this morning. Israel’s election left Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc on 53 seats and Gadi Eisenkot’s on 48, both short of 61, with Arab-led parties on a record 19. At least 69 people died in Spain’s worst rail crash in 13 years, and Lula won a fourth term in Brazil with 51.79% of the vote.
What Moved Forward
Healey Delivers a Budget of Modest Relief and Deferred Pain
DomesticThe first Budget of Andy Burnham’s premiership came on Wednesday and was built for “breathing space”, not reform. Households in council tax bands A to D get £100 towards winter energy bills, gas standing charges are abolished during 2027, the 5p fuel duty cut runs on to July and the minimum wage rises 3.9%. Banks and savers pay for it: the surcharge doubles to 6% and the tax on savings and rental income rises four points, although the planned cut to the cash ISA allowance was dropped. Burnham then ruled out an election within twelve months. The measures cover less than a fifth of the expected rise in bills, but the government has shown it can get a Budget through without a market revolt.
The Kherson Truce Holds and Oleshky Is Reached at Last
GeopoliticalA ceasefire brokered by Melania Trump and Pope Leo XIV began in occupied Oleshky on Tuesday, two days early, and was soon extended across the Kherson region without a reported breach. On Friday a convoy of 25 buses carried hundreds of residents out of the devastated town. It was the first joint relief operation of the war; several hundred mostly elderly residents chose to stay. Kherson itself had its first quiet days in years. It is a single humanitarian corridor, not a peace process, and the Kremlin still rejects Volodymyr Zelensky’s broader ceasefire offer. Even so, it shows that a negotiated pause can be agreed and kept, which the war had not managed until now.
Voters Topple Vučić and Return Lula
GeopoliticalTwo elections last Sunday ended with decisive results. In Serbia, a leaderless student list that grew out of two years of protest defeated Aleksandar Vučić’s party, which has governed since 2012, on the highest turnout in decades. Vučić conceded before the final count, and the new MPs are already demanding that the police and intelligence chiefs go before the handover is complete. In Brazil, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, now 80, overturned a first-round deficit to beat Flávio Bolsonaro by 4.4 million votes. Bolsonaro demanded the result be annulled, then left the country after his passports were cancelled. In both countries the institutions held up under heavy pressure.
Binance Covers Its Losses as the FBI Names North Korea
MarketsBinance lost $6.3bn on Thursday, a breach wider than first disclosed and the largest exchange hack on record. Chainalysis and TRM Labs blamed the North Korean unit TraderTraitor, and on Saturday the FBI formally attributed the theft to the Lazarus Group. The exchange then moved quickly: it froze about half the funds, set aside more than the stolen sum from its own treasury, and by Saturday said it had replenished 90% of losses, with bitcoin, ethereum and Tether holdings fully restored. Withdrawals began reopening in phases this morning. The theft confirms that Pyongyang is now the most capable thief in crypto, but the industry’s largest firm avoided a run.
What Stalled
Hormuz Diplomacy Circles as the Shooting Resumes
GeopoliticalThe week brought plenty of diplomacy over Iran and no settlement. Defence and intelligence chiefs from the Mecca pact states met President Pezeshkian in Tehran and agreed only “to continue the dialogue”. JD Vance wrote to Iran’s security chief offering direct talks in Istanbul or Doha; Tehran acknowledged the letter but sent no reply and kept its seven conditions. Meanwhile the Houthis fired at Saudi Arabia and claimed a strike on Ras Tanura, and a limpet mine disabled a tanker off Oman, the first such attack of the war. Araghchi’s offer to reopen the strait within two days depends on sanctions relief, a US drawdown and the release of frozen funds, which Washington is unlikely to accept. The strait remains shut.
Israel’s Election Produces Deadlock, Not a Government
GeopoliticalTuesday’s turnout was the highest since records began in the early 1970s, but the result settled nothing. With every vote counted, Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc has 53 seats and Gadi Eisenkot’s 48. Arab-led parties won a record 19 and now hold the balance. Likud has accused them of “stealing” the election, and Shin Bet is investigating claims of illegal Qatari and Turkish funding. Thousands rallied in Tel Aviv on Saturday urging Eisenkot to govern with Arab support, which would give him 67 seats but has no precedent in Israeli politics. President Herzog’s consultations begin this week, and weeks of bargaining or another election look more likely than a quick coalition.
The AI Trade Breaks Down
MarketsResults week tested the AI investment story, and it did not hold up. Alphabet grew revenue 25% but reported a 25% fall in profits and negative free cash flow, and conceded that its own AI summaries were hurting search advertising; it lost $500bn in a day. Amazon fell after hours, and Intel’s 29% collapse on Friday wiped more than $1tn from US technology stocks. Gold, which had been a refuge all year, fell to a one-year low, and the Federal Reserve held rates while two members voted to raise them. For British savers in global trackers, which are heavily weighted to these companies, the week was a reminder of how concentrated their exposure is.
Defence, Welfare and Local Government Reform Postponed
DomesticFor all its short-term giveaways, the Budget put off the hardest decisions. The route to 3% of GDP on defence by 2030 was deferred to next year’s Spending Review, and departments were told to find another 1% of capital savings to cover a £4.7bn hole; Kemi Badenoch called it “a plan to have a plan”. Burnham could not promise a cut to welfare spending, forecast to reach £431bn, before the election. The government withdrew nine of fourteen planned council mergers, including Kent, Devon and Lancashire, while it seeks legal clarity. The DUP also blocked Michelle O’Neill from Burnham’s first National Economic Council for the nations, and the first ministers of Scotland and Wales told him that devolution within their nations is for their own parliaments to decide.
What To Watch Next Week
America’s Midterms and the Strikes Promised to Follow
GeopoliticalAmericans vote on Tuesday. Democrats lead the generic ballot by about eight points, and more than 43 million early votes had been cast with five days to go. Losing the House would leave the second half of Donald Trump’s term exposed to subpoenas and budget fights. The more immediate risk is in the Gulf: Trump has said strikes on Iran would not resume until after polling day, has told Gulf allies to prepare for a short, intense campaign, and insists one or two nuclear sites remain to “take care of”. Watch whether Tehran answers the Vance letter before the polls close. If it does not, Brent could move sharply in either direction soon after.
The Bank of England’s November Decision
MarketsMarkets expect the Bank of England to raise interest rates this month. The OBR’s inflation forecast of about 3.75%, oil above $110 and ten-year gilt yields near 5.3% have all pointed that way, and the two hawkish dissents at the Federal Reserve add to the pressure. A rise would push up the cost of new and remortgaged home loans just as the Budget’s £100 energy payment arrives, and it would erode Healey’s already reduced headroom by raising the cost of servicing nearly £100bn a year of debt interest. Watch the vote split and the Bank’s guidance on how much of the energy shock it expects to persist into 2027.
The King in Antigua and the Slavery Apology Row
DomesticThe King addresses Commonwealth leaders in Antigua on Tuesday and will speak, the Palace says, with “sincere sorrow” about the transatlantic slave trade. The prime minister has expressed “sorrow and regret” and said he is open to a formal state apology while ruling out reparations, a position that satisfies neither Caribbean governments, which want compensation, nor critics at home who accuse him of drawing the monarch into a political dispute. Protests are expected in St John’s. Watch what the communiqué says, whether Burnham commits to an apology at the summit, and how far the King departs from his government-approved script.
Mahmood’s Settlement Rules and Poundland’s Deadline
DomesticShabana Mahmood will put her final decision on indefinite leave to remain before Parliament this week. Most workers would have to wait ten years rather than five, and some lower-paid workers fifteen, though social care staff already in Britain are likely to be exempt. Cabinet colleagues have objected, so watch for further concessions. In the high street, Poundland’s ten-day window to find a rescue deal runs out at the end of the week, with 12,000 jobs at stake after its US owner rejected a takeover offer. Together they will show how Burnham handles immigration and job losses under pressure.
Morning Briefing
What It Means For You
- If you are aged 18 to 20 and on the minimum wage: your rate rises to £11.27 an hour against £13.21 for over-20s, and the chancellor would not promise this morning to close the gap before the next election — “We’ll take one step at a time,” he said.
- If you watch your energy bill: the chancellor says ministers will sign off new offshore wind farms only if the grid can carry their power without raising costs. The National Audit Office warned in September that paying turbines to switch off could cost homes and businesses £7.8bn a year by 2030.
- If you hold Binance funds: the exchange says it has covered 90% of the $6.3bn stolen, with bitcoin, ethereum and Tether holdings fully replenished, and remains on track to reopen withdrawals today. It will confirm details before doing so.
GEO Geopolitical
Iran Offers Two-Day Hormuz Reopening if Washington Meets Its Terms
Abbas Araghchi says talks with Qatari mediators have produced a plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days, down from five, provided America lifts sanctions, cuts its regional forces and releases frozen funds. President Trump said talks were “going fine but you know they’re not very reliable”, while insisting one or two nuclear sites remained to “take care of”.
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German Youth Protests Turn to Looting as France Marches Again
Cost-of-living demonstrations organised by the youth group Gen Z regelt turned violent overnight in Frankfurt, where shops were looted, a gun shop’s windows smashed and molotov cocktails thrown at emergency services. Police used water cannon in Cologne and Hamburg. In France, the interior ministry counted 320,000 protesters, 70,000 of them in Paris.
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Tel Aviv Rally Urges Eisenkot to Govern With Arab Parties
Thousands rallied in Tel Aviv urging opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot to strike a deal with Arab-led parties to remove Benjamin Netanyahu. With all votes counted, Mr Netanyahu’s bloc holds 53 seats and Mr Eisenkot’s 48 — both short of the 61 needed — while Arab-led parties won a record 19. Together, Eisenkot and the Arab parties would command 67.
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Tens of Thousands Rally in Delhi Demanding Election Chief Quit
Rahul Gandhi is leading a Congress rally at Ramlila Maidan demanding the resignation of the chief election commissioner, Gyanesh Kumar, over a voter-list revision that has removed 130 million names from draft rolls. The Election Commission says it is purging the dead and those who have moved; the opposition calls it “vote chori” — vote theft.
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Binance Covers 90% of Losses as FBI Blames North Korea
The FBI said on Saturday that North Korea was responsible for the $6.3bn theft from Binance, naming the Lazarus Group, also known as TraderTraitor. The exchange says it has replenished 90% of the stolen assets from its own treasury and other funds, and remains on track to reopen withdrawals today.
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DOM UK Domestic Politics
Reeves Says Britain’s Future Lies in the European Union
In her first major intervention since leaving the Treasury, Rachel Reeves writes in the Sunday Times: “I do believe Britain’s future lies in the European Union.” She offers no timetable and does not say whether a referendum would be needed. Prime Minister Andy Burnham has said any change would require a mandate at a general election.
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King to Address Slavery With ‘Sincere Sorrow’ as Apology Row Grows
The King will speak with “unflinching honesty” and “sincere sorrow” on the transatlantic slave trade when he addresses Commonwealth leaders in Antigua on Tuesday, Buckingham Palace says. The Sunday papers lead on Mr Burnham’s openness to a formal apology, the Express accusing him of letting the King down.
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Healey Will Not Promise Equal Minimum Wage Before Election
The chancellor, John Healey, has declined to commit to paying 18 to 20-year-olds the full adult minimum wage before the next election, potentially breaking a 2024 manifesto pledge. “There is no question about whether or if, it’s a question of when,” he told the BBC. He also signalled readiness for deep departmental cuts.
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Healey to Veto Offshore Wind Farms That Cannot Lower Bills
New offshore wind projects bidding for subsidy contracts will be signed off only if the grid can absorb their power without pushing up consumer costs, the chancellor says. “There’s no sense building power that can’t connect and then paying to switch it off,” he wrote in the Times.
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Mahmood to Set Out Settlement Rules With Care Workers Spared
The home secretary, Shabana Mahmood, will present her final decision on indefinite leave to remain to Parliament this week. The BBC understands social care workers already in Britain are likely to be exempt from a longer wait, while most other workers would need ten years rather than five before qualifying for settlement.
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Morning Briefing
What It Means For You
- If you hold savings outside an ISA or let out property: from 6 April 2027 the tax on that income rises to 24%, 44% or 49% depending on your band — four points above the rates on earnings. The official estimate is that about 12% of taxpayers pay an average of £113 a year more, and that a basic-rate taxpayer would need over £150,000 in savings at 4% before paying any tax on interest.
- If you have an anxious pet tonight: nothing has changed in the law yet. A government consultation closed this month proposing that the loudest fireworks be sold only to professionals and that the consumer noise limit fall from 120 to 110 decibels, roughly halving loudness. A complete ban on public sales has been ruled out, and any change comes with a six-month transition.
- If you are on a hosepipe ban or near a reservoir: the wettest week in two years has not ended the drought. Most of England and Wales remain in drought, parts of Cornwall, Devon, Dorset, Somerset and Sussex are in severe drought, and up to ten dry days are now forecast. This is England’s third drought in five years.
GEO Geopolitical
America Approves 500 Patriots That May Take Years to Arrive
The State Department has cleared the sale of 500 PAC-3 interceptor missiles to Ukraine at a cost of $2.1bn, the one weapon that reliably downs Russian ballistic missiles. President Zelensky welcomed the decision and then warned that deliveries may begin, in his words, “only in a few years”. The statement gave no delivery date.
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Poland’s President Forces His Way Into the Constitutional Court
Judges elected by the current parliamentary majority moved to suspend the Constitutional Tribunal’s president and vice-president and take procedural control of the court. Riot police were deployed in Warsaw, three people were detained, and the head of state turned his plane around mid-flight, pushed through the police cordon after midnight and was still inside the building at four in the morning.
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Half the Record Crypto Theft Frozen as Investigators Close In
The exchange that lost $6.3bn this week says it has frozen about half the stolen funds and set aside more than that sum of its own money to cover customers. The US Secret Service says it is working around the clock to trace and recover the assets. The breach was wider than first disclosed.
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Yerevan Nature Deal Lands With One Target of 24 on Course
After nearly two weeks of negotiation in Armenia’s capital, governments agreed a new accord on nature and acknowledged they are falling behind. The 2022 framework they are meant to be delivering set 24 targets, including protecting 30% of the world’s land and seas by 2030. The UN says one is on track.
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Democrats Lead by Eight Points With Three Days to the Midterms
Americans vote on Tuesday, and one polling average puts Democrats 8.2 points ahead on the national congressional ballot, 51.4% to 43.2%. A wire-service analysis counted more than 43 million early or postal votes five days out, nearly ten million more than at the same stage in 2022. A separate survey found 44% of registered voters expect Democrats to take the House against 31% for Republicans, with the Senate far closer.
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UK Domestic
Settlement Decision Due Next Week After Cabinet Objections
The home secretary is expected to put her final decision on settlement rules for legal migrants to Parliament in the coming week. Her proposal would double the wait for permanent residence from five years to ten, with some lower-paid workers waiting fifteen. It has drawn objections from inside the government.
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Savers and Landlords Face Four Points More From April 2027
Wednesday’s Budget added two percentage points to the tax rates on savings interest and property income, on top of two already announced by the previous chancellor. From April 2027 the rates become 24% for basic-rate taxpayers, 44% for higher-rate and 49% for the additional rate. The plan to cut the cash ISA limit was dropped.
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Sorrow and Regret Offered, but Reparations Refused
In a signed article before next week’s Commonwealth summit in Antigua, the prime minister called the transatlantic slave trade “a brutal and barbaric violation”, expressed “sorrow and regret”, and said he is open to calls for a formal state apology. He refused financial reparations: “I do not believe that is the right answer.”
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Bereaved Families Win Full Asbestos Compensation From Today
From today, families of people who died of asbestos-related disease before they could claim will receive the same compensation the sufferer would have been entitled to, ending a gap of roughly £7,000. About 300 families a year are affected. For a claimant of sixty, a dependant could now receive £56,656 rather than £24,526.
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Up to Ten Dry Days After the Wettest Week in Two Years
High pressure is returning and the United Kingdom could see as many as ten consecutive days without rain, after an unsettled end to October in which the Environment Agency says England had its wettest week in two years. Halloween evening should stay largely dry, with some rain possible in the Western Isles.
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Evening Briefing
What It Means For You
- If you were planning a heat pump: the boiler upgrade scheme still offers a typical household £7,500, but its funding will now rise only with inflation after the Budget took £741m from it. Installations are expected to stagnate or grow far more slowly than planned.
- If you hold tech funds or gold: Intel fell 29% on Friday and US tech stocks were on course to lose more than $1tn in value. Gold has dropped to a one-year low and is down 5.9% so far this month.
- If you are a Yorkshire Water customer: the Environment Agency has rated the company one star out of four, its lowest rating, after 260 pollution incidents in 2025. Its chief executive, Nicola Shaw, leaves on 1 January.
GEO Geopolitical
Limpet Mines Disable Tanker in First Such Hormuz Attack of War
On Thursday a small boat attached explosives to the hull of the Panama-flagged tanker Louise 1, about 25 nautical miles north-east of Khasab in Oman. The blast started a fire that was later put out. Maritime security sources told Reuters it was the first known successful limpet-mine attack on a tanker in the area since the war began. Separately, the IRGC claimed that three tankers had struck sea mines on a southern route it calls unauthorised.
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Intel Suffers Worst Day Since 1974 as AI Sell-Off Deepens
Intel shares fell 29% on Friday, on course for their worst day since 1974, after the company gave weaker-than-expected guidance. It blamed a plant shutdown in Israel and weak PC demand. US tech stocks were on track to lose more than $1tn in value, a day after Alphabet lost about $500bn. By early evening the S&P 500 was down about 1.8%, and gold had fallen to a one-year low.
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Hundreds Evacuated From Occupied Oleshky Under Kherson Ceasefire
Hundreds of residents left the devastated, Russian-occupied town of Oleshky on Friday. It was the first joint relief operation of the war, made possible by a ceasefire across the Kherson region brokered by Melania Trump. A convoy of 25 buses had four hours to take out up to 750 people. Several hundred residents, most of them older, chose to stay. Those heading for Ukraine must travel through Crimea, Anapa in southern Russia and Belarus.
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G20 Photo Scrapped as Europeans Refuse to Stand With Lavrov
The United States cancelled the traditional ‘family photo’ at the G20 foreign ministers’ meeting in Atlanta after European diplomats, including the UK’s, refused to pose with Russia’s Sergei Lavrov. A US official said Washington had dropped the picture rather than let it become “a diplomatic distraction”. Ukraine was not invited to the meeting, which is hosted by Marco Rubio.
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Novaya Gazeta to Close, Accusing Russian State of Killing It
Novaya Gazeta, Russia’s best-known independent newspaper, announced on Friday that it will close. It had received an eviction order, and at the same time the system it used to collect readers’ donations was disabled. “They’ve killed us,” its statement said, blaming “the repressive state apparatus”. The paper had already lost its licence, and its website was blocked.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
First Ministers Tell Burnham Local Devolution Is Theirs to Decide
Andy Burnham chaired his first National Economic Council for the nations in Glasgow and urged all four nations to “move together” on handing power to regions. John Swinney and Rhun ap Iorwerth agreed to work with him. But both insisted that further devolution within Scotland and Wales was a matter for Holyrood and the Senedd alone. Northern Ireland sent only officials after a row between Sinn Féin and the DUP.
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Streeting Denies Kicking Defence Spending Can Down the Road
Wes Streeting rejected claims that the government is putting off decisions on defence spending. He and John Healey announced that foreign firms winning UK defence contracts worth more than £50m must invest the same amount in Britain. These ‘offset’ rules will apply case by case from April 2027. Critics point out that the Budget set no path to spending 3% of GDP on defence by 2030.
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Budget Takes £741m From Heat Pump Scheme to Help Fund Defence
John Healey’s Budget cut more than £3bn from the energy department, much of it to pay for defence. This includes £741m from the boiler upgrade scheme, which subsidises heat pumps. The scheme’s funding will now rise only with inflation, instead of increasing to just over £700m by 2029–30. Experts warn that the target of 250,000 installations a year by 2030 is slipping out of reach.
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Yorkshire Water Chief Quits a Day After One-Star Rating
Nicola Shaw will step down as Yorkshire Water’s chief executive on 1 January. Her announcement came 24 hours after the Environment Agency gave the company its lowest rating and classed it as ‘poorly performing’. The regulator said the firm was responsible for 260 pollution incidents in 2025, its highest total since 2011. Nicola Medalova, who previously worked at National Grid, will succeed her.
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Number 10 North Advertises 50 Jobs in Manchester Hiring Drive
Andy Burnham’s Manchester office has advertised 50 jobs, including a ‘rewiring the state deputy director’ paid up to £117,000. BBC analysis puts the total basic salaries at up to £2.8m. No10 North already has 120 staff, nearly half the 280 who work in Downing Street. It will move to a permanent office on First Street in spring 2027.
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One To Read
Evacuations begin from Oleshky under Melania Trump-brokered ceasefire — CNN. A detailed account of how a town cut off by mines and drones for years was finally reached, and of the people who chose to stay behind.
Morning Briefing
What It Means For You
- If you rely on public services: the IFS says the Budget leaves a £28bn-a-year gap and points to “a spending review that looks pretty brutal for some departments”, including real-terms cuts. Departments have already been told to find 1% savings to fund defence.
- If you hold crypto on an exchange: Binance says $6.3bn of assets were hit in what may be the largest hack ever, and has pledged to “cover all losses”. Analysts blame a North Korean unit; check your exchange’s security notices.
- If you have a pension or index fund: Alphabet lost just over $500bn in market value on Thursday after warning that AI search summaries are hurting ad sales. Big US technology stocks make up a large share of most global trackers.
GEO Geopolitical
Tehran Holds Vance Letter as US Floats Istanbul or Doha Talks
Iran has confirmed through the Tasnim news agency that it received JD Vance’s letter to its security chief, Mohsen Rezaei, but has not yet replied. Tasnim says Tehran still insists its seven conditions be met. The Washington Post reports that Vance has offered to meet Rezaei, with Istanbul or Doha the likeliest venues.
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Binance Hit by $6.3bn Hack Blamed on North Korea
Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange, says $6.3bn of digital assets were affected in what may be the biggest hack in history. About half has been frozen, and the exchange says it will “cover all losses”. Chainalysis and TRM Labs have attributed the attack to TraderTraitor, a North Korean hacking unit.
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Xi’s Purges Leave Record Empty Seats at China Plenum
China’s Communist Party expelled a record 33 members as its fifth plenum closed. Only 279 of the 376 Central Committee members named in 2022 attended, the most empty seats in modern Chinese history. Those expelled include Zhang Youxia, formerly Xi Jinping’s second-in-command in the military hierarchy, and Ma Xingrui, the former party secretary for Xinjiang.
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Serbia’s Student Victors Demand Police and Intelligence Chiefs Go
Newly elected Student List MPs have called on the heads of Serbia’s police, the BIA security agency and its anti-terror unit to stand down. The demand comes days after the movement ousted Aleksandar Vučić’s party from power. The movement fears that evidence of wrongdoing could be destroyed during the weeks-long handover.
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Alphabet Loses $500bn as AI Weighs on Search Advertising
Alphabet lost just over $500bn in market value on Thursday after it said AI summaries in search were hurting advertising revenue. Its shares fell almost 13% to a six-month low. Revenue rose 25% to $127.6bn, but profits fell 25% and free cash flow turned negative by more than $9bn. Amazon fell 6% after hours.
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DOM UK Domestic Politics
DUP Blocks O’Neill From Burnham’s Economic Council
The DUP has blocked First Minister Michelle O’Neill from attending the National Economic Council with Andy Burnham in Glasgow today. It acted after Sinn Féin joined protests that stopped an Orange Order march along the Garvaghy Road in Portadown. “Her law breaking must have consequences,” said Gavin Robinson. O’Neill called the move “reckless and irresponsible”.
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IFS Warns of £28bn Gap and ‘Brutal’ Spending Review
The Institute for Fiscal Studies says John Healey needed to set aside another £28bn a year to cover inflation and reach 3% of GDP on defence by 2030. IFS director Helen Miller warned of “a spending review that looks pretty brutal for some departments”. Healey has since said there is no timetable for cutting welfare in this parliament.
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Mahmood Angers Ministers Over Asylum Homelessness Impact
Shabana Mahmood has angered Cabinet colleagues by repeatedly refusing to say how much she expects her asylum changes to increase homelessness. Home Office ministers will meet other departments in the coming days to agree a compromise, amid warnings of a staffing crisis in social care. The Home Office insists that ending asylum hotels “will not leave people homeless”.
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MPs Say Government’s Obesity ‘Moonshot’ Is Doomed to Fail
The Commons health and social care committee says the government’s pledge to “end the obesity epidemic” within a decade is “doomed to fail” without a rethink. MPs want a cabinet committee chaired by the prime minister and a cross-government plan within three months. In England, 30% of adults live with obesity, and 66% are overweight or obese.
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Nine Council Mergers Withdrawn as Reorganisation Stalls
The government has withdrawn decisions on nine of 14 planned council mergers, including Kent, Devon and Lancashire, while it seeks “legal clarity”. Only East Sussex, Gloucestershire, Oxfordshire, Warwickshire and Worcestershire will go ahead, after three more weeks of consultation. Shadow local government secretary Katie Lam called it “a farce”.
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One To Read
China expels a record number from Communist party amid Xi’s intensified purges of top officials — The Guardian. A clear account of how far Xi’s discipline campaign has hollowed out the party and military elite ahead of next year’s congress.
Evening Briefing
What It Means For You
- If you are a working-age household: the Resolution Foundation expects typical disposable income to fall by £1,050, or 3%, between now and 2029, and says the Budget’s £100 support payment will not offset higher energy bills.
- If you book GP appointments online: about 500 practices in England, and some in Wales, have lost their websites and online booking after Silicon Practice went into administration. Phone or visit your surgery instead; the NHS app is still working.
- If you shop at or work for Poundland: the chain has filed a notice of intention to appoint administrators, giving it 10 days to find a rescue deal. Its 12,000 staff face an uncertain few days.
GEO Geopolitical
Tehran Weighs Vance Letter as Trump Tells Gulf to Prepare
Iran was expected to reply on Thursday to a letter from JD Vance to its security chief, Mohsen Rezaei, proposing direct talks soon. US reports say the letter, passed on by Qatari mediators, insists the nuclear programme must be on the table from the outset. Trump has meanwhile told Gulf allies to prepare for a short, intense campaign after next week’s midterms.
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Final Count Leaves Netanyahu Short as Arab Lists Become Kingmakers
Final results confirm that neither Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc nor the Jewish opposition has a majority. Netanyahu’s bloc has 53 seats and Gadi Eisenkot’s 48, while the Joint List and Ra’am won a record 19 seats between them. Likud has accused the Arab-led parties of “stealing” the election, and Shin Bet is investigating whether they received illegal funding from Qatar and Turkey.
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Leaked Audio Points to Controllers as Spain Crash Toll Reaches 69
The death toll from Wednesday’s high-speed collision near Urda, south of Madrid, has risen to 69. Leaked recordings published in Spanish media appear to show Madrid’s control centre clearing a Renfe train to move while an Iryo train had stalled about 25km ahead. Pedro Sánchez said the authorities would “get to the bottom of every last detail of this tragedy”.
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Kherson Enjoys Rare Quiet as Six-Day Truce Holds
A six-day ceasefire brokered by Melania Trump to get humanitarian aid into Russian-occupied Oleshky has given Kherson its first quiet days in years. The guns fell silent at 4am Moscow time on Tuesday, two days earlier than planned. Since then, said Ukraine’s human rights ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets, the city has “literally come back to life”.
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Shell Lifts FTSE 100 as Haleon Suffers Record Fall
The FTSE 100 closed up 0.26% at 10,722.07, led by energy stocks after Shell reported its highest quarterly profit since 2022 and raised its share buyback. Shell rose 2.1%, even though oil prices fell. Haleon dropped about 15%, its biggest one-day fall since it listed four years ago, after cutting its organic revenue growth forecast.
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DOM UK Domestic Politics
Think Tanks Warn of ‘Painful’ Years as Living Standards Stall
The Resolution Foundation says typical working-age household incomes will fall by £1,050, or 3%, by 2029. The IFS says this decade will be the worst for household income growth on record. John Healey said his Budget offered “breathing space” but conceded the government could “never remove completely” cost-of-living pressures.
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Burnham Cannot Promise Welfare Cut Before Election
Andy Burnham said he wanted to cut the welfare bill “as soon as we possibly can” but could not guarantee it would happen before the next election. Spending is forecast to rise from £353bn this year to £431bn by 2031/32. Healey told the Today programme there “will be a reduction in the benefits bill”, but Downing Street later said it was “not setting an arbitrary target or timetable”.
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Poundland on the Brink as Owners Reject Rescue Bid
Poundland has filed a notice of intention to appoint administrators after its US owner, Gordon Brothers, cut off funding and rejected a takeover offer from Martin Property Group. The notice gives the chain 10 days to find a rescue deal, with 12,000 jobs at stake. “This is a deeply worrying time for Poundland staff and their families,” Andy Burnham said.
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Hundreds of GP Surgeries Lose Online Booking After Firm Collapses
About 500 GP practices in England, just under 10% of the total, have lost their websites and online booking after Silicon Practice went into administration. Practices in London, Gloucestershire and Norfolk have reported problems, and services in Wales are also affected. NHS England told patients to contact their practice “by phone or in person as usual”.
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Farage and Lib Dem MP Clash Over Alleged Commons Shove
Nigel Farage said he skipped Wednesday’s Budget to avoid a repeat of a “physical altercation” with another MP at May’s State Opening. Caroline Voaden, the Lib Dem MP for South Devon, then said she was that MP, and that the encounter had left her “shocked and bloody angry”. The Lib Dems say Farage “attempted to shove” her; Reform accuses them of “lying”.
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One To Read
‘The city is alive’: A brief peace in Kherson, but residents fear what comes next — BBC News. A vivid report from a front-line city enjoying its first quiet days in years, and a sober account of how fragile that quiet is.
Morning Briefing
What It Means For You
- If your home is in council tax bands A to D: you will get a one-off £100 towards energy bills this winter in England, and Wales will match it. The Resolution Foundation expects bills to average £2,210 across 2027, up £600 on this year, so the help covers less than a fifth of the rise. Gas standing charges go during 2027, but heavy users will pay more per unit.
- If you have savings or rent out property: tax on that income rises to 24% for basic-rate taxpayers from April 2027, rather than the 22% previously planned. The planned cut in the cash ISA allowance from £20,000 to £12,000 has been scrapped, while income tax thresholds stay frozen.
- If you work on the minimum wage or drive for a living: minimum wage rates rise by 3.9% in April, and the temporary 5p cut in fuel duty is extended to July. Markets expect the Bank of England to raise interest rates next month, which would push up the cost of new mortgages.
GEO Geopolitical
Spain’s Worst Rail Crash in 13 Years Kills at Least 68
At least 68 people were killed on Wednesday when a Renfe high-speed train from Madrid to Seville ran into a stationary Iryo train near Toledo. Transport Minister Óscar Puente said a computer failure had halted six trains, after which Madrid’s control centre took an “inexplicable” decision to let them move again without speed restrictions. More than 500 people were on board the two trains.
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Vance Reaches Out to Tehran as Pentagon Readies Post-Election Strikes
JD Vance has written to Mohsen Rezaei, head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, to try to revive negotiations, the Wall Street Journal reports. At the same time, Pete Hegseth has removed the Pentagon’s top military planner, Lt Gen Brett Sylvia, without explanation. US officials have told Middle Eastern states to be ready for possible renewed military action after Tuesday’s midterms. Brent fell 1.23% to $113.90 this morning.
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Israel Heads for Deadlock as Netanyahu Bloc Stalls at 53
With about 90% of ballots counted, Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc is on 53 seats and Gadi Eisenkot’s on 48, both short of the 61 needed in the 120-seat Knesset. Arab-led parties are set for a record 19. Between 430,000 and 480,000 absentee ballots, many from soldiers, are being counted today. Official results are expected next week, when President Isaac Herzog begins consultations.
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Federal Reserve Holds Rates, but Two Members Vote to Raise
The US Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate at 3.75%–4% on Wednesday, a week before the midterm elections. Governor Lisa Cook and the Cleveland Fed’s Beth Hammack dissented in favour of a quarter-point rise. “Inflation remains elevated,” the committee said. The ten-year Treasury yield rose to about 5.03%.
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Putin Hails Musk as Kremlin Rejects Zelensky’s Ceasefire Offer
Vladimir Putin called Elon Musk “a real genius” on Wednesday and said Russia was in “close contact” with him on satellites, during the Russia-Africa summit in Moscow. The Kremlin continues to reject the full or partial ceasefire Volodymyr Zelensky has offered, the Institute for the Study of War reports. Russia fired one ballistic missile and 88 drones at Ukraine overnight into Wednesday.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Healey’s First Budget Taxes Banks to Fund £100 Energy Payment
John Healey’s first Budget gives about 20 million households a one-off £100 towards energy bills, costing £2.6bn. It is paid for by doubling the bank surcharge to 6% for 15 months and raising tax on savings and property income. He promised families “breathing space now” against “global economic storms”, but deferred big decisions on defence and welfare until next year.
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OBR Paints ‘Pretty Grim’ Picture as Growth Forecast Is Cut
The Office for Budget Responsibility cut its 2027 growth forecast to 1% and expects inflation to peak at about 3.75% early next year. The watchdog’s head, David Miles, called the outlook for living standards “pretty grim”. Higher interest rates and inflation leave borrowing, before new policy, about £11bn a year above March’s forecast. The Resolution Foundation calls the Budget “scattergun”.
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Departments Told to Find Further 1% Cuts to Fund Defence
Every Whitehall department must cut its capital budget by a further 1% to fill a £4.7bn hole in the Defence Investment Plan. Healey, who resigned as defence secretary in June over funding, postponed the route to 3% of GDP by 2030 until next year’s Spending Review. Badenoch called it “a plan to have a plan”; Nato’s Mark Rutte called it “a credible path”.
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Burnham Rules Out a General Election Within 12 Months
Andy Burnham has ruled out calling a general election in the next year, after Conservative and Reform claims that he would seek an early mandate. “I can rule out calling a general election in the next 12 months,” he said after the Budget. He also promised to keep Labour’s manifesto red lines on freedom of movement, the single market and customs union “for the whole of this Parliament”.
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Tommy Robinson Convicted of Harassing Two Daily Mail Journalists
A Southwark Crown Court jury has found Tommy Robinson, whose real name is Stephen Yaxley-Lennon, guilty of two counts of harassment causing fear of violence against the Daily Mail journalists Andrew Young and Jacob Dirnhuber. The case followed a 2024 article about him in Cyprus during the post-Southport riots. He was bailed until sentencing on 16 December; the offence carries up to ten years.
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Morning Briefing
What It Means For You
- If you heat your home with gas: the typical annual bill is forecast to rise by £276 in January. The Chancellor has said standing charges, which average £108 a year, will go for about 23 million homes, but unit prices will rise to cover them. The Treasury estimates three-fifths of households save about £45 a year on average; heavier users will pay more.
- If your only income is the state pension: the full state pension is set to rise to £13,036.40, above the £12,570 tax-free allowance, which would draw about a million people into income tax. Today’s Budget is expected to set out a new personal allowance that keeps them out of it.
- If you are saving for a first home in England: more detail is due today on the Your First Home scheme — a 2.5% deposit on a new-build and a loan of 20% of the price, for joint incomes up to £110,000, or £140,000 in London. All of this is expected rather than announced until Healey sits down this afternoon.
GEO Geopolitical
Likud Leads the Count, but Neither Bloc Reaches 61 Seats
With about 55% of votes counted this morning, Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc stood at 56 seats against 49 for Gadi Eisenkot’s alliance — both short of the 61 needed in the 120-seat Knesset. Exit polls make Likud the largest party, on 27 seats to Yashar’s 21, while Arab-led parties are projected to win a record combined 19 on turnout above 77%.
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Houthi Strike Claim on Saudi Refinery Lifts Brent Above $115
Brent crude rose 1.32% to $115.59 a barrel this morning after the Iran-backed Houthis said they had hit Ras Tanura, Saudi Arabia’s largest refinery, with a ballistic missile. That undid most of Tuesday’s fall: Brent had dropped 1.7% to close at $113.88 on hopes of diplomacy. Donald Trump told a Texas rally that the war with Iran would end on his terms.
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Flávio Bolsonaro Reaches the United States After Passports Cancelled
The defeated Brazilian presidential candidate has arrived in the US, sources told the BBC. He left hours after his passports were cancelled for missing a Supreme Court deadline to surrender them in a money-laundering inquiry; he denies wrongdoing and has not been charged. Argentina says he, his wife and two daughters crossed its border and boarded a private flight to Guayaquil, Ecuador, at 11.30pm on Tuesday.
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Oleshky Truce Widened Across Kherson Ahead of Friday Evacuations
A ceasefire agreed to get food and medicine into Russian-occupied Oleshky has been extended across the wider Kherson region, Ukrainian officials say, with no breaches reported. Melania Trump, who brokered it with Pope Leo XIV, said the area had been widened to give humanitarian convoys “safe passage”. Aid deliveries are to be followed by evacuations, planned for Friday, for anyone who wishes to leave.
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Trump Floats Venezuela as a ‘51st State’ at Texas Rally
Donald Trump suggested on Tuesday that Venezuela might one day become the 51st US state, showing off a tanker he said held “one million barrels of oil” under a deal with the country’s US-backed interim government. “We’re celebrating the greatest oil victory in history,” he told a rally in Corpus Christi, with the midterm elections a week away.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Healey Delivers First Budget Promising ‘Breathing Space’ on Bills
John Healey presents his first Budget at about 12:30 today, the first of Andy Burnham’s premiership, conceding that Britain faces “a difficult moment”. Gas standing charges are to go for about 23 million homes and fuel duty is expected to stay frozen. A levy on banks is expected to be the main revenue-raiser, possibly by reversing the cut in the bank surcharge from 8% to 3%.
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Debt Interest Nears £100bn as War Shrinks the Chancellor’s Headroom
About £100bn of the roughly £1.42tn Healey will allocate this year goes on debt interest, with government borrowing costs at multidecade highs since the war on Iran began in February. The Resolution Foundation estimates the £24bn buffer built at the last tax-raising Budget has halved to about £12bn. Manifesto pledges rule out raising income tax, National Insurance or VAT.
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Rosebank Can Be Approved Within Climate Targets, Insiders Say
The Rosebank oilfield could be approved without breaching UK emissions targets, government insiders have told the Guardian, because emissions from exported oil do not count against domestic limits. Energy Secretary Miatta Fahnbulleh had been leaning towards rejection, at odds with cabinet colleagues including the Chancellor. The Treasury has already accounted for billions of pounds in tax revenue from the field.
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MPs Warn Digital Landline Switch Could Leave Remote Areas Cut Off
MPs for remote constituencies have urged the security minister, Dan Jarvis, to make sure the switch from copper landlines to an internet-based network does not leave people unable to call for help in a storm. The switch is due to finish by the end of January. Unlike digital lines, the old network works in a power cut; back-up batteries given to vulnerable customers last an hour or more.
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King Acknowledges ‘Suffering of the Past’ as Caribbean Tour Begins
The King opened his first Caribbean tour as monarch in the Bahamas by acknowledging the “great suffering of the past” amid calls for slavery reparations, saying it was “only right” to recognise historic injustices. In line with government policy, he will not apologise or offer reparations. The nine-day tour ends at the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting, where leaders will discuss slavery’s legacy.
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Evening Briefing
What It Means For You
- If you are 18 to 20 and on the minimum wage: tomorrow’s Budget is expected to raise your rate by the same 3.9% as everyone over 21, rather than by more. The gap therefore stops closing, and the promise to abolish age bands slips. The figures are reported, not yet announced.
- If you are thinking about a heat pump or solar panels: a government-backed loan scheme opened today, with no money upfront and up to thirty years to repay in some cases — up to £15,000 for solar, £20,000 for the common air-to-water heat pump and £35,000 for a ground-source system, stackable with the existing grant.
- If you are waiting to see what the Budget actually does: very little is confirmed. What is on the record is modest — tariffs off 100 food items worth up to £21 a year, fuel duty frozen again, and a carer’s allowance taper that does not arrive until 2030. Almost everything else remains briefing.
GEO Geopolitical
Record Israeli Turnout, and a Fight Over Closing Time
Two-thirds of Israel’s electorate had voted by six o’clock this evening, 66.7%, the highest since such things were first measured in the early 1970s. The prime minister’s party and its coalition partners have asked the electoral authorities to keep polls open past ten; the opposition says that is groundwork for challenging the result.
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Bolsonaro’s Passports Cancelled, His Whereabouts Unknown
Brazilian police have cancelled the passports of the defeated candidate after he missed the 24 hours the Supreme Court gave him to surrender them, in a money-laundering investigation he denies. He has not been seen since Monday and officers are checking border crossings. Argentine authorities say they have no record of him entering their country.
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Emergency Agency Puts Taraba Death Toll at Sixty-Two
At least 62 people were killed and 52 wounded when gunmen attacked the Binnari community in Taraba state, north-eastern Nigeria, on Friday, according to the state head of the national emergency agency. Thousands have been displaced. Fifty-two bodies have been recovered so far, fifteen of them from the Benue River.
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Nordic Leaders Hold a Rare Joint Call With Putin
The president of Finland and the prime minister of Norway spoke to President Putin for ninety minutes from Helsinki, in a call they initiated to discuss ending the war in Ukraine. Norway’s leader said it showed “big differences in views”. Afterwards Putin blamed “confrontational” European and Nato policies for prolonging the war.
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Turkish Committee Clears the Mecca Pact for a Full Vote
Turkey’s parliamentary foreign affairs committee has approved the mutual defence agreement with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, carried by the governing party and its allies over opposition objections. It now goes to the full assembly for debate and a vote. The published text binds the parties for ten years.
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UK Domestic
Minimum Wage to Rise, but the Age Gap Stops Closing
Tomorrow’s Budget is expected to raise the minimum wage by 3.9% for every adult band. That is the point of contention: because younger workers get the same percentage rather than a larger one, the gap between them and older workers stops narrowing, and a manifesto promise to abolish age bands altogether recedes.
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Warm Home Loans Open for Heat Pumps and Solar Panels
A government-backed loan scheme opened today offering households interest-free or low-interest borrowing from £7,500 to £35,000 to fit heat pumps, batteries and solar panels with no money upfront. The government says the full combination can cut a bill by up to £550 a year, and by a further £300 on a time-of-use tariff.
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Minister and Spokesman Give Different Answers on Free Movement
The business secretary says officials will begin discussing the range of future options for the relationship with the European Union, free movement among them, before the summit in Brussels on 20 November. A government spokesman, the same day, said there are no current discussions on free movement. Both are on the record.
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Two Charged Over Alleged Iran-Linked Plot at RAF Fairford
Two British nationals, both 24 and from London, appeared at Westminster Magistrates’ Court today over an alleged plot at the American-operated airbase in Gloucestershire. One is charged with assisting a foreign intelligence service, which police have said they believe to be Iran; the other with entering a prohibited place for a purpose prejudicial to the United Kingdom.
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Two MPs and an MSP Detained and Turned Back by Israel
An SNP member of parliament, a Labour member and a Scottish Greens member of the Scottish Parliament say they were held for eight hours at the crossing from Jordan and refused entry to the West Bank. Israel’s embassy says the group gave false information about the purpose of its visit.
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Morning Briefing
What It Means For You
- If you do the weekly shop: import tariffs come off more than 100 products, from baked beans and chocolate to marmalade. Combined with June’s cuts on pasta, fruit juice and tuna, the government puts the saving at up to £21 a household a year — modest, and dependent on retailers passing it on.
- If you are an unpaid carer who works: earning a penny over the weekly limit will no longer cost you the whole week’s carer’s allowance. Instead £1 tapers away for every £1 earned above it, to be confirmed in Wednesday’s Budget.
- If you drive for work: the 55p-a-mile tax-free rate for the first 10,000 business miles becomes permanent, and the rate above that rises from 25p to 35p. The Treasury says about three million people benefit; fuel duty is also expected to be frozen again.
GEO Geopolitical
Israel Votes With Netanyahu and Eisenkot Neck and Neck
Polls opened this morning in Israel’s first general election since the 7 October attacks, with Benjamin Netanyahu in a near neck-and-neck race against the former military chief Gadi Eisenkot. Neither bloc is projected to reach the 61 seats needed for a majority, so weeks or months of coalition bargaining may follow.
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Tehran Talks End in Pledge as Houthis Fire at Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan agreed with Iran late on Monday “to continue the dialogue” on regional security, after their defence and intelligence chiefs met Iran’s president in Tehran. Within hours the Saudi-led coalition said it had intercepted three Houthi ballistic missiles aimed at the Eastern Province and four drones. Brent eased to about $115 on the diplomacy.
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Melania Trump’s One-City Truce Takes Effect in Occupied Oleshky
A local ceasefire began overnight in the Russian-occupied city of Oleshky, on the Dnipro in Kherson region, a week after it was announced by the US First Lady. Both Kyiv and Moscow say it is holding. It is meant to let aid in and allow civilians out, with an evacuation planned for Friday.
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Western Powers Warn of Famine in Sudan as Nyala Is Struck
The United States, the European Union and 30 countries, Britain among them, warned of an “alarming deterioration” in Sudan’s food security and urged both sides to lift impediments to aid. Hours later a drone strike on a market in Nyala, the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces’ de facto capital, killed at least 21 people.
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Jordan Strikes Syria After Karak Church Attack; Border Shut
Jordanian jets struck what Amman called “terrorist organisations” in Syria’s Daraa province, retaliating for Friday’s shooting at a Christian funeral in Karak that killed nine. Syrian health officials said five people, including women and children, died. Damascus says it was not notified and has closed Nassib, the only passenger and commercial crossing between the two countries.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Healey Cuts Food Tariffs and Freezes Fuel Duty Before Budget
The chancellor, John Healey, has unveiled five “everyday fixes” ahead of Wednesday’s Budget, removing import tariffs on more than 100 food products and making the 55p-a-mile business mileage rate permanent. Fuel duty is expected to be frozen again. “We can’t control global events, but we can act where we can make a difference,” he said.
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Carer’s Allowance Cliff Edge to Be Scrapped
The rule that strips unpaid carers of their whole weekly carer’s allowance for earning a penny over the limit is to be replaced by a taper, with £1 withdrawn for every £1 earned above it. The change follows years of reporting on carers left with debts running into thousands of pounds.
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Alex Chalk to Lead Independent Review Into Henry Nowak Murder
The home secretary, Shabana Mahmood, has ordered an independent review into the murder of Henry Nowak, the 18-year-old student stabbed in Southampton last December, to be led by the former lord chancellor Alex Chalk KC. “We must get to truth of what happened before, during and after that awful night,” she told the Commons.
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Be Ready Call Drives Surge in Radio and Tinned Food Sales
Retailers report sharp rises in emergency purchases since the government urged households to prepare for crises. Iceland saw a 40% jump in tinned goods over the weekend; Robert Dyas a 160% rise in radio sales; Maplin a near-fourfold increase in torches. The defence secretary called it “encouraging that people are taking practical steps to be ready”.
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Second DUP Figure Calls for O’Neill’s Removal as First Minister
The DUP assembly member Diane Forsythe has joined the MP Carla Lockhart in calling for Michelle O’Neill to be removed as Stormont’s first minister over her part in protests that blocked an Orange Order parade at Drumcree. “It is my view that Michelle O’Neill should be removed from office,” she wrote.
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Evening Briefing
What It Means For You
- If you are on a western coast tonight: a yellow wind warning runs from six this evening until three tomorrow morning, with gusts to 65mph, and a second warning covers much of Scotland, northern England and Northern Ireland through Tuesday. Further power cuts are thought likely; keep a torch to hand.
- If you are worried about winter bills: European wholesale gas has hit a four-year high and the British month-ahead contract its highest since December 2022, on cold weather, thin storage and Gulf supply fears. A 16% rise in a typical annual bill in January, to about £2,000, is a forecast rather than an announced cap.
- If you have a hospital appointment in late November: senior doctors in England will strike on the 25th and 26th, staffing emergency care only. Routine and planned work is the part that gets postponed, against a backlog of more than six million patients.
GEO Geopolitical
Gulf Chiefs Meet Iran’s President and Agree to Keep Talking
Saudi Arabia’s defence minister, Pakistan’s army chief and Turkey’s intelligence chief met President Pezeshkian and the secretary of Iran’s supreme national security council in Tehran today. Iranian state television says the four agreed to continue talks after what it called a first meeting. No communique has been issued and the talks were still under way this evening.
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Trump Says He Is Choosing Between a Deal and Finishing It
Asked about Iran in a television interview on Sunday, the American president said he was weighing whether to make a deal or, in his words, “finish them off”. No date is attached to any of it. He has previously said strikes would not resume until after the midterm elections on 3 November, and Tehran responded by saying its policies are unchanged.
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UN-Mandated Inquiry Finds Crimes Against Humanity in West Bank
A three-member commission of inquiry established by the UN Human Rights Council has reported that Israeli authorities and forces have committed the crimes against humanity of extermination, torture, rape and other forms of sexual violence in the occupied West Bank. Israel’s mission in Geneva rejects the findings and demands the commission’s dissolution.
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Church Says More Than Sixty Christians Killed in Oromia
The Ethiopian Orthodox Tewahedo Church says more than sixty people have been killed in a series of attacks on Christians across three areas of the Shirka district in Ethiopia’s Oromia region. A church official called it a massacre and said security forces arrived but could not stop the assault. The regional government says it will act.
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Algeria Approves Its First Such Foreign Deployment Since 1973
Both chambers of Algeria’s parliament have approved sending troops to Niger to protect energy installations in the north, near the Libyan border. It would be the country’s first such deployment since it sent forces to Egypt during the 1973 Arab-Israeli war. Neither the timing nor the number of soldiers has been announced.
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UK Domestic
No 10 Pulls Back From the Prime Minister’s Referendum Answer
Asked by broadcasters whether he could introduce freedom of movement without a referendum, the prime minister answered “no”. Downing Street spent the afternoon qualifying it, saying he “isn’t proposing a return to freedom of movement or any option” and is “crucially not leaning either way”. Sources say no decision on a referendum has been taken.
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Low-Income Pensioners to Be Shielded From Income Tax
The chancellor will use Wednesday’s Budget to protect pensioners on low incomes from income tax through a new allowance, honouring an existing pledge not to tax people whose only income is the state pension. From April 2027 the full new state pension reaches £13,036, above the £12,570 personal allowance frozen since 2021.
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Consultants in England to Strike for Two Days in November
Senior hospital doctors in England will walk out on 25 and 26 November, staffing emergency care only, in a dispute over pay and hours. Seventy-six per cent of those voting backed action on a turnout of just over half. The health secretary calls the strike irresponsible; hospital leaders warn patients face pain and inconvenience.
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Two More Wind Warnings, and a Correction to This Morning
About 22,600 properties were still without power on Monday afternoon, down from 90,000 in the morning. Two further yellow wind warnings follow: one from six this evening until three tomorrow morning on western coasts, and a second across much of Scotland, northern England and Northern Ireland through Tuesday. This morning we called the coming storm Chloe. It has no name, and we were wrong to give it one.
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Britain Sanctions Fifteen Sudanese Commanders Over El Fasher
The government has imposed travel bans and asset freezes on fifteen commanders from both sides of Sudan’s war, suspected of sexual violence during the siege of El Fasher. It falls on the first anniversary of the city’s fall. The Foreign Office says it hopes the action will ensure the horrors there “will be known to the world”.
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Morning Briefing
What It Means For You
- If you are in Scotland, northern England or Northern Ireland: a yellow wind warning for Storm Chloe runs from three tomorrow morning until just before midnight. About 33,500 Scottish properties are still off supply from the last storm, and the larger network says it cannot guarantee everyone is reconnected before Chloe arrives.
- If you are waiting on Wednesday’s Budget: reporting says about a million pensioners will be taken out of income tax by a new allowance, and that the tax-free pension lump sum survives. None of it is confirmed, and published estimates of the chancellor’s headroom range from £12bn to £23.6bn.
- If you are at risk of homelessness or work with people who are: a further £432m takes the rough sleeping commitment to about £874m, extended to the end of this Parliament. It buys an offer of accommodation or support rather than a guaranteed home, and it is the only Budget measure so far published rather than briefed.
GEO Geopolitical
Vucic Concedes to a Student Movement Without a Final Count
Aleksandar Vucic has conceded Serbia’s parliamentary election to the leaderless student list that grew out of two years of protest, telling supporters: “We still do not have final results… it is clear that we have lost these elections.” The electoral commission put turnout at 64.9% two hours before polls closed, the highest in decades.
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Lula Wins a Fourth Term but Bolsonaro Demands Annulment
With every vote counted Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva took 51.79% to Flávio Bolsonaro’s 48.21%, a margin of 4.4 million, having narrowly lost the first round three weeks ago. His opponent has refused to concede and asked for the result to be annulled.
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Hebron Mayor Calls Mass Displacement Collective Punishment
Nearly 2,000 Palestinians — 370 families by the municipality’s count — have been driven from the Ein Deir Baha district of Hebron after two Israeli soldiers were killed at a checkpoint on Friday. The city’s mayor, Yousef al-Jabari, calls it “collective punishment”. The army says those who wished to evacuate were permitted to leave temporarily; residents say they were ordered out.
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Saudi, Turkish and Pakistani Chiefs Fly to Tehran Today
Defence and intelligence chiefs from the three Mecca pact states travel to Tehran today for a joint meeting, confirmed by both Saudi and Iranian officials. It is the first high-level contact between Iran and all three members since the Houthis escalated attacks on Saudi Arabia last month. Riyadh frames the visit as de-escalation and support for mediation.
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Zelensky Says Three-Way Talks Will Happen in November
President Zelensky says a trilateral meeting with Washington and Moscow will take place in November to restart stalled peace talks, speaking in a Sunday interview. Ukraine will not discuss limits on its armed forces or enforced postwar neutrality there, he says. He renewed his call for a direct meeting with President Putin.
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UK Domestic
Two Dead in Boelo as Storm Chloe Arrives Tomorrow
A second man has died in Storm Boelo: a driver in his twenties killed when a tree fell on his car in north London at twenty to one on Sunday, two hours after a 60-year-old was struck near Castle Douglas. About 33,500 Scottish properties are still without power, and a third named storm arrives tomorrow.
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Rough Sleeping Fund Doubles to £874m With a Summit Today
The government will put a further £432m into ending rough sleeping, confirmed at Wednesday’s Budget and roughly doubling the £442m already committed. Support extends beyond March 2027 to the end of this Parliament. The first Downing Street summit on rough sleeping is held today.
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Pensioners Reported Shielded From Tax as Budget Nears
Reporting two days before the Budget says about a million pensioners will be shielded from income tax by a new personal allowance, because the full state pension is set to rise above the £12,570 threshold. The chancellor is also said to have rejected cutting the tax-free pension lump sum. None of it is confirmed.
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Cabinet Reported Split Over the Rosebank Oil Decision
The chancellor is reported to favour approving the Rosebank oil field and the energy secretary to oppose it, with the prime minister deciding if they cannot agree. She holds the decision. Nothing has been published, and her department still says no decision has been taken.
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Board of Deputies Declares the Greens a Racist Party
The Board of Deputies of British Jews has voted by 118 to one to declare that the Green Party has “by adopting an antisemitic platform, become a racist party”, and urged other parties not to make deals with it. The Green leader says he will not overturn the policy.