Evening Briefing
What It Means For You
- Petrol & Prices: Oil fell back below $100 a barrel on Friday, easing the immediate inflation scare, though pump prices remain elevated after this week’s spike. The Bank of England sets interest rates on 30 July.
- Your Money: Reassuring UK data — a jump in retail sales and stronger business activity — lifted the FTSE and steadied borrowing costs, with markets still expecting the Bank to hold rates next week.
- Pubs & the High Street: Business rates for pubs, clubs and music venues will be cut by 20 per cent, worth around £100m, funded by a planned levy on large online retailers — part of the government’s cost-of-living push.
GEO Geopolitical
Spain Declares Emergency as Wildfires Force Tens of Thousands to Flee
Spain declared a national emergency on Friday as wildfires raged across the country, while on the French Atlantic coast fresh mass evacuations drove holidaymakers from their homes — some fleeing by boat. Together the fires in Spain and south-western France have forced tens of thousands to flee, with both governments requesting help from fellow European Union states. Temperatures reached 44C in southern Spain.
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Iran Strikes US Gulf Bases as Trump Weighs a Bigger Attack
Iran launched retaliatory strikes on Friday against American military targets in the Gulf, including the Al-Azraq air base in Jordan, as Bahrain and Kuwait reported intercepting Iranian missiles. President Trump said he was “close to making a decision” on “a massive attack… bigger than ever before”, but had not ordered one. It followed a thirteenth night of American strikes and Iran’s rejection of a US ceasefire proposal.
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Oil Retreats Below $100 as the War-Risk Premium Unwinds
Brent crude fell back below $100 a barrel on Friday, sliding around 4 per cent to roughly $96, as traders unwound part of the war-risk premium that had driven it above $100 on Thursday for the first time in two months. The pullback offered a measure of relief, though oil remained on course for a weekly gain of about 10 per cent as the US–Iran war ground on.
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Russian Strike on a Kyiv Event Kills 10 as Both Sides Trade Blows
A Russian missile strike on a defence-industry gathering in the Kyiv region killed at least ten people and wounded more than a hundred on Friday, Ukrainian officials said, in one of the deadliest attacks of recent weeks. Ukraine struck back deep inside Russia, hitting an arms factory in Kirov, some 1,200km from the border, killing six. It was a bloody day on a front that has barely moved.
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Six Killed in West Bank Gunfight as Israel Raids Nablus
Six people were killed in a gun battle in the occupied West Bank on Friday, among them four Palestinians and two Israeli soldiers, after which Israel launched a wide operation around Nablus. The clash, near the village of Tell, was followed by reprisal raids by Israeli settlers that wounded seven Palestinians, according to local sources. It marks one of the deadliest days in the territory in weeks.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Burnham Launches ‘Number 10 North’ in Manchester
Andy Burnham marked the end of his first week as Prime Minister by launching “Number 10 North”, relocating devolution and local-growth policy functions to Manchester. Working from an interim headquarters in the city, Mr Burnham called it “the nerve centre of a rewired Britain” and “not a gimmick”, insisting the shift would bring government closer to the regions. He described it as “the best day of my life”.
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Burnham Cuts Business Rates for Pubs and Music Venues
The government has announced a 20 per cent cut in business rates for pubs, clubs and grassroots music venues across England, a package worth around £100m, in its latest high-street and cost-of-living measure. Ministers indicated the relief would be funded by a new levy on large online retailers, framing it as shifting the burden from struggling hospitality to “big ecommerce”. The trade gave the move a cautious welcome.
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FTSE Rebounds and Gilts Steady as the Oil Panic Fades
London’s FTSE 100 recovered on Friday, rising around 0.7 per cent to about 10,710, as oil’s retreat from $100 eased the previous day’s inflation scare. Banks led the gains, with HSBC among the risers, while government bond yields dipped and the pound firmed towards $1.334. The rebound clawed back much of Thursday’s sharp, oil-driven sell-off.
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Business Activity Hits a Three-Month High, Survey Shows
British private-sector activity grew at its fastest pace in three months in July, a closely watched business survey indicated on Friday, a further sign that the economy is holding up. The S&P Global flash survey pointed to the first expansion in three months, with firms reporting easing cost pressures, helped by summer spending and the warm weather. The pound firmed on the improved picture.
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Ministers Pressed to Award £2.4bn Satellite Deal to Airbus
The government is under pressure to award a £2.4bn military satellite contract to Airbus rather than an American rival, in a decision that pits industrial sovereignty against the transatlantic relationship, according to reporting on Friday. Supporters of the European bid argue that Britain’s secure communications should not depend on a foreign supplier, particularly amid strains with Washington over defence and energy.
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Morning Briefing
What It Means For You
- Petrol & Inflation: Oil is holding near $100 a barrel as the US–Iran war grinds on, keeping petrol close to 156p a litre and threatening to push inflation back above 3 per cent. The Bank of England sets interest rates on 30 July.
- Your Money: Retail sales rose 1 per cent in June as warm weather boosted spending — a rare bright spot — but UK borrowing costs hit a two-month high, with markets now betting on rate rises rather than cuts, which would lift mortgage costs.
- NHS & Heat: Resident doctors begin a five-day strike on Saturday, risking cancelled operations and appointments, while an amber heat alert covers much of England this weekend — check on elderly or vulnerable neighbours.
GEO Geopolitical
US Strikes Iran for a 13th Night as Trump Vows More Pain
American forces bombed Iran for a thirteenth consecutive night, US Central Command said, striking command centres, drone sites and coastal targets around Bandar Abbas and Khuzestan. Iranian authorities said at least four people were killed and five injured in an overnight strike near Ahvaz. President Trump signalled no let-up, telling Axios that Tehran “haven’t received enough pain yet” and that he was weighing “a massive attack… bigger than ever before”.
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Oil Holds Near $100 as the Gulf War Grinds On
Brent crude held close to $100 a barrel on Friday, easing only slightly after surging past that level on Thursday for the first time since May, and remains up around 13 per cent on the week. The retreat was modest: prices stay elevated as Houthi attacks on Red Sea tankers and nightly American strikes on Iran keep a hefty risk premium on oil. US pump prices have climbed above $4 a gallon.
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Wildfires and Record Heat Grip Spain and France
Wildfires continued to rage across Spain and France on Friday as a punishing heatwave pushed temperatures towards 44C, with thousands evacuated. A blaze in Spain’s Guadalajara region, one of the country’s largest on record, has consumed some 32,000 hectares north of Madrid, emptying dozens of hamlets, while fires in south-western France have forced holidaymakers from coastal campsites and killed two firefighters this week.
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Kremlin Lays Ground for Mobilisation, War Institute Says
Russia is preparing the ground for a fresh wave of mobilisation and bracing for possible domestic unrest, the Institute for the Study of War has assessed, even as President Putin plays down a worsening fuel-shortage crisis. The Washington think tank said the Kremlin was setting the political conditions to call up more troops, a sign Moscow expects a long war despite renewed diplomatic contacts. Ukraine, meanwhile, has continued a shake-up of its military command.
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Israel Strikes Gaza After Fresh Displacement Orders
Israel bombarded parts of Gaza on Friday after issuing new displacement orders, killing at least two Palestinians, according to medical sources cited by Al Jazeera, in the latest strain on a US-brokered ceasefire in place since October. Strikes hit homes in the Bureij and Jabalia refugee camps and the Zeitoun and Tal al-Hawa districts of Gaza City. The truce has held only loosely, with near-daily Israeli operations.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Retail Sales Jump in June as the Warm Weather Lifts Spending
British retail sales rose by 1 per cent in June, official figures showed on Friday, comfortably beating forecasts as the second-warmest June on record drew shoppers out and summer promotions lifted demand. The Office for National Statistics said sales volumes were 4.2 per cent higher than a year earlier, led by clothing and online retailers. It is a rare piece of good economic news for Andy Burnham’s government amid the oil-price squeeze.
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Gilt Yields Hit a Two-Month High as Markets Bet on Rate Rises
British borrowing costs pushed higher again on Friday, with the ten-year gilt yield reaching around 5.1 per cent, a two-month high, as the oil-driven inflation scare prompted traders to bet on interest-rate rises rather than cuts. The reversal, days before the Bank of England’s decision on 30 July, threatens to raise the cost of Mr Burnham’s spending plans and to feed through to mortgages. Sterling slipped towards $1.33.
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Resident Doctors Poised to Strike as Last-Ditch Talks Continue
Tens of thousands of resident doctors in England are due to begin a five-day strike at 7am on Saturday, even as the British Medical Association and the Health Secretary, Wes Streeting, report “constructive” but unresolved talks. The government has offered a 5.4 per cent rise for this year; the union says pay has fallen roughly a fifth in real terms since 2008. Hospital leaders warn of widespread cancellations.
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Amber Heat Alert Covers Much of England This Weekend
An amber heat-health alert came into force across much of southern and central England on Friday morning and will run until Sunday, as a fresh heatwave builds. Issued by the UK Health Security Agency with the Met Office, the alert covers six regions and warns of a likely rise in deaths among the elderly and vulnerable. It is the same warm spell credited with lifting June’s retail sales.
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Labour Narrows Reform’s Lead as Burnham Settles In
Labour has closed much of the gap on Reform UK since Andy Burnham became Prime Minister, polling suggests, though Reform still holds a narrow lead. A YouGov survey put Reform on 23 per cent, the Conservatives on 21 and Labour on 20 — the closest the parties have been in a year. Mr Burnham is also the public’s preferred prime minister, according to Ipsos, ahead of Nigel Farage and Kemi Badenoch.
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Evening Briefing
What It Means For You
- Petrol & Bills: Oil has broken $100 a barrel for the first time since May, driving petrol up around 5p to 155.6p a litre and diesel up 8p, according to the RAC. Pump and energy costs look set to rise further, threatening the recent fall in inflation.
- Savings & Mortgages: UK borrowing costs hit a two-month high, with thirty-year gilt yields near 5.75 per cent, even as the Chancellor pledged fiscal discipline. Higher yields feed through to mortgage and loan rates. The Bank of England decides on rates on 30 July.
- NHS & Appointments: Resident doctors will strike for five days from 25 July, risking cancellations of operations and appointments even as waiting lists fall to a two-year low. Check before travelling for planned hospital care.
GEO Geopolitical
Trump Threatens a ‘Massive’ Strike on Iran as Oil Tops $100
President Trump has threatened “major military punishment” against Iran and told Axios he is weighing “a massive attack… bigger than ever before”, after Yemen’s Houthis struck a second Saudi oil tanker in the Red Sea. Brent crude vaulted above $100 a barrel for the first time since May, settling around $100.70 — up some 7 per cent on the day and roughly 30 per cent across July. The Saudi tanker Layla was hit hours after the Encelia.
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US Presses Its Strikes as Iran Claims Hits on Gulf Bases
American forces pressed on with their bombing of Iran, with US Central Command reporting fresh strikes on “maritime capabilities, missile and drone storage facilities, coastal surveillance sites and air-defence assets”. Two people were killed and eleven injured at Shalamcheh, near the Iraqi border, and a power substation beside the Bushehr nuclear plant was hit, causing outages. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard claimed retaliatory strikes on American bases in Kuwait and Jordan.
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Rubio and Lavrov Meet in Manila to Test Ukraine Peace Hopes
The US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, met Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, on the sidelines of an Asean gathering in Manila for just over half an hour, though the encounter produced no breakthrough. Mr Rubio said Washington was “prepared to play a constructive role in bringing about an end to a senseless war”. Moscow said Mr Lavrov had “reaffirmed Russia’s readiness for a political and diplomatic settlement”.
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Two Firefighters Die as Wildfires Sweep Southern Europe
Two firefighters have been killed battling a wildfire near Bordeaux in south-western France, where more than 10,000 holidaymakers were evacuated from campsites, as an intense heatwave drives temperatures above 40C across the Mediterranean. Fires are burning through France, Spain and Italy; Spain’s Guadalajara blaze has consumed some 32,000 hectares, and Italy has mobilised thousands to fight dozens of blazes.
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Saudi Arabia Halts Some Red Sea Oil as the Blockade Bites
Saudi Arabia has suspended some of its Red Sea oil shipments after Houthi attacks on two of its tankers, with at least five vessels reversing course, deepening the disruption to global energy trade. The Iran-aligned Houthis have declared a blockade of the strategic Bab el-Mandeb strait, opening a second front alongside the throttled Strait of Hormuz. Maritime authorities reported a tanker ablaze some 70 nautical miles off the Saudi coast, its crew unharmed.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Healey Vows a ‘Fiscal Buffer’ as Gilt Yields Hit a Two-Month High
The Chancellor, John Healey, has used his first big set-piece in the City to pledge disciplined public finances, telling executives at Bloomberg’s London headquarters that he would meet the government’s fiscal rules “with a buffer against uncertainty”. Markets were unmoved: the thirty-year gilt yield climbed towards 5.75 per cent, a two-month high, and the ten-year held above 5 per cent, keeping British borrowing costs the dearest in the G7.
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Oil at $100 Sends the FTSE Lower and Rattles Global Markets
London’s FTSE 100 fell 78 points, or 0.7 per cent, to close at 10,639, retreating from a five-month high as oil’s surge above $100 a barrel stoked fears of renewed inflation. The sell-off was sharper on Wall Street, where the S&P 500 dropped 1.2 per cent and the Nasdaq more than 2 per cent, dragged down by heavy falls in Alphabet and Tesla after disappointing earnings. Gold slid around 2 per cent and volatility jumped.
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Pump Prices Jump as $100 Oil Squeezes Burnham’s Cost-of-Living Plan
The surge in oil has begun to bite at the forecourt, with petrol rising around 5p to 155.6p a litre and diesel up 8p to 172.1p, according to the RAC, threatening the centrepiece of Andy Burnham’s cost-of-living agenda. The RAC’s Simon Williams said fuel prices were “shooting up like a rocket on the back of oil being above $90”. The Prime Minister spent Thursday promoting cheaper bills even as the war pushed them the other way.
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Resident Doctors to Strike for Five Days as Waiting Lists Fall
Tens of thousands of resident doctors in England will stage a five-day strike from 25 July after rejecting the government’s pay offer, the British Medical Association has confirmed. The walkout, over a demand to restore pay eroded since 2008, threatens widespread cancellations of operations and appointments. The Health Secretary, Wes Streeting, urged the union to call it off, pointing to NHS waiting lists that have fallen to their lowest level since early 2023.
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Heat Alerts and Hosepipe Bans Widen as the Summer Bakes On
A fresh Thames Water hosepipe ban took effect across London on Thursday, extending restrictions that now cover more than 23 million people, as amber heat-health alerts remained in force across much of England. This year has become the first on record to see temperatures reach 35C in each of May, June and July. Water companies say prolonged heat and the driest spring on record have left reservoirs and rivers depleted.
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Morning Briefing
What It Means For You
- Petrol & Bills: Oil has surged above $95 a barrel — a six-week high — as the Gulf war chokes shipping, threatening to push petrol and diesel prices back up just as UK inflation had eased to a 15-month low of 2.6 per cent. Forecourt costs could rise within weeks.
- Your Water: Around 23 million people in England are now under hosepipe bans after Thames Water restricted its ten million customers, following the driest spring on record. Expect tighter curbs on watering gardens and washing cars as reservoirs run low.
- Mortgages & Savings: UK borrowing costs remain the highest in the G7, with ten-year gilt yields near 5 per cent and the pound below $1.34, as markets question how the government’s giveaways will be funded. The Bank of England is expected to hold rates on 30 July.
GEO Geopolitical
US Bombs Iran for a Twelfth Night as Oil Spikes Anew
American forces struck Iran for a twelfth consecutive night, US Central Command said, hitting “maritime capabilities, missile and drone storage facilities, coastal surveillance sites and air-defence assets”. Explosions were reported across the south, from Bandar Abbas to Bushehr. Iran’s parliament speaker, Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf, was defiant: “The equation for this war is clear: it is all or nothing.” The Pentagon puts its losses at eighteen dead and 482 wounded.
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Oil Tops $95 as a Saudi Tanker Burns in the Red Sea
Brent crude pushed above $95 a barrel, a six-week high and a near-$20 rise since fighting resumed on 7 July, after fresh attacks on Gulf shipping. Yemen’s Houthis said they had struck two oil tankers; the Saudi-linked Encelia was hit and caught fire at the bow, though its crew were reported safe. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard separately claimed a tanker had caught fire after an explosion near the Strait of Hormuz.
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Trump Threatens Iran’s ‘Pickaxe Mountain’ as Tehran Denies Nuclear Work
President Trump has warned that the United States will strike a fortified site south of Natanz known as “Pickaxe Mountain”, which Western intelligence believes shelters Iran’s centrifuge programme. Tehran on Wednesday denied conducting any nuclear activity at the complex. Iran’s top joint military command has threatened to target American and allied interests across the region should its nuclear facilities be hit.
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Zelensky Sacks His Army Chief After Days of Kyiv Protests
President Zelensky has dismissed his commander-in-chief, General Oleksandr Syrskyi, and named the ground-forces commander, Major-General Mykhailo Drapatyi, to lead Ukraine’s army. The move follows nearly a week of protests in Kyiv, sparked by the earlier removal of the defence minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, with demonstrators demanding Syrskyi’s departure. Mr Zelensky has ordered the new command to produce an updated defence strategy.
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Wildfires Rage Across Spain and France Amid Another Heatwave
Spain, France and Italy are battling fierce wildfires as a third heatwave of the summer pushes temperatures towards 44C. A blaze in Spain’s Guadalajara region has consumed some 32,000 hectares, one of the country’s largest on record, while fires in the French Var and on Sicily have forced evacuations. Spain’s prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, said: “Climate change kills and destroys wealth… This isn’t politics. It is science.”
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Burnham Weighs North Sea Drilling in a Manifesto Reckoning
Andy Burnham’s government is weighing approval for drilling at the Rosebank and Jackdaw fields, a move campaigners say would shatter Labour’s 2024 manifesto pledge to issue no new oil and gas licences. Both fields already hold consents granted in 2022–23, but an Edinburgh court voided them last year over unaccounted emissions. The new energy secretary, Miatta Fahnbulleh, is reviewing the schemes as ministers hunt for growth and energy security.
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UK Borrowing Costs Stay Highest in the G7 as Sterling Slips
British government borrowing costs remain the dearest in the G7, with the ten-year gilt yield holding near 5.07 per cent, its highest since May, as investors weigh Mr Burnham’s spending pledges against his talk of fiscal “flexibility”. Sterling has slipped to around $1.337. The FTSE 100, by contrast, touched a five-month high near 10,717, buoyed by its heavy weighting in energy and commodity shares as oil climbs.
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Burnham Governs as Preferred PM but Faces a Sceptical Public
Andy Burnham enters Downing Street as the public’s clear choice for prime minister but with doubts over his readiness, polling suggests. Ipsos found three in ten Britons named him their preferred premier, on 30 per cent, well ahead of Reform’s Nigel Farage on 16 per cent and the Conservatives’ Kemi Badenoch on 13. Yet on raw voting intention Reform still led Labour narrowly, by 26 per cent to 24.
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Millions More Face Hosepipe Bans as England Dries Out
Around 23 million people in England are now under hosepipe bans after Thames Water became the latest supplier to restrict its ten million customers. The curbs follow the driest spring on record for England and Wales and three successive heatwaves. Only 13 per cent of rivers are running at normal levels for the time of year, and several reservoirs are classed as notably or exceptionally low.
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Oil’s Surge Threatens to Undo Britain’s Inflation Relief
The jump in crude prices driven by the Gulf war threatens to reverse the fall in British inflation that has buoyed Mr Burnham’s opening days. Brent’s climb above $95 a barrel feeds quickly into petrol and diesel, the very costs that pushed headline inflation down to 2.6 per cent in June, a fifteen-month low. Forecasters already expected inflation to climb back towards 3.4 per cent by the autumn; the oil spike sharpens that risk.
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Evening Briefing
What It Means For You
- Tax & Bills: Andy Burnham ruled out tax rises at the autumn Budget and stepped back from his hint that he might unfreeze the £12,570 personal allowance, insisting his cost-of-living measures are “fully funded” by cuts elsewhere. Scrapping the digital ID scheme will pay the £850m cost of removing VAT from electricity bills from October.
- Petrol & Energy: Brent crude jumped to a six-week high above $93 a barrel — spiking towards $95 during the session — as President Trump threatened to bomb an Iranian bridge or power plant for every ship attacked in the Strait of Hormuz. Pump and energy costs will keep rising while both the Gulf and Red Sea routes are threatened.
- Savings & Markets: The FTSE 100 closed at a five-month high on the softer inflation figures and a commodities rally, and gold hit a record. But ten-year gilt yields stayed pinned near 5 per cent, the market’s cautious verdict on the new government’s spending.
GEO Geopolitical
Trump Vows to Bomb a Bridge or Power Plant for Every Ship Hit
President Trump unveiled a stark new retaliation doctrine, declaring that the United States would “bomb and destroy one bridge or power plant” — including targets in or beside Tehran — every time Iran fires on a ship in the Strait of Hormuz. The threat followed an eleventh straight night of US strikes and came alongside a renewed vow to hit the fortified “Pickaxe Mountain” nuclear site near Natanz. Iran’s military warned any such attack would trigger a “powerful assault”.
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Oil Hits a Six-Week High as War Chokes Two Sea Routes
Brent crude surged to a six-week high, jumping as much as 4 per cent to around $93 a barrel and spiking towards $95 during the session, as Washington talked down peace prospects and traders confronted a “dual-strait” threat. Iranian attacks have throttled the Strait of Hormuz to a trickle, while a fresh Houthi blockade menaces the Bab el-Mandeb, forcing tankers of Saudi crude bound for Asia to turn back towards Suez. US pump prices ticked up above $4 a gallon.
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Iran Strikes Back Across the Gulf as Rubio Warns Asia on Hormuz
Iran fired a missile at a Jordanian city near Israel and triggered alerts in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, retaliating for the latest American bombardment; Tehran’s health ministry says US strikes have now killed 53 people over eleven days. In Manila, the US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, told Southeast Asian ministers that letting Iran control and tax the Strait of Hormuz would set a “very dangerous precedent”, and held a rare sideline meeting with China’s foreign minister.
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Ukraine Turns Its Drones on Southern Russia’s Oil and Supply Lines
Ukrainian long-range drones struck warehouses, an oil depot and Russia’s biggest online retailer deep inside Krasnodar and Stavropol, injuring at least eight and killing one. President Zelensky confirmed the raids and said thirteen Russian “shadow fleet” vessels had been hit in the Black and Azov seas over 48 hours, part of a campaign Kyiv says is designed to drag Moscow back to the negotiating table.
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Flash Floods Kill 23 and Leave 100 Missing in Afghanistan
Flash floods that tore through Afghanistan’s remote Nuristan province have killed at least 23 people and left more than 100 missing, with rescue crews digging through mud and rubble for a second day. Some 80 people were injured and buildings collapsed when the waters struck; the toll is expected to climb as teams reach cut-off villages, and forecasters warn of further flooding across ten provinces.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Burnham Rules Out Budget Tax Rises and Cools Allowance Talk
The Prime Minister ruled out tax rises at the autumn Budget and stepped back from his own hint that he might unfreeze the £12,570 personal allowance, insisting his cost-of-living measures are “fully funded” by reprioritising existing budgets. “We’ll take decisions on tax at the Budget. This is about reprioritising in this phase,” Mr Burnham said on a walkabout in Bath, hours after unveiling the £2 bus-fare cap.
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Burnham Axes Starmer’s Digital ID Scheme to Fund Cheaper Bills
Downing Street confirmed that the £850m cost of scrapping VAT on household electricity from October will be met by cancelling Sir Keir Starmer’s flagship digital ID programme. It is the first concrete casualty of Mr Burnham’s cost-of-living reprioritisation, killing off one of his predecessor’s signature reforms to bankroll a tax cut worth about £45 per household.
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Burnham Orders Early-Release Review After Harper Killers Outcry
The Prime Minister ordered his new Justice Secretary to review Labour’s prison early-release policy after fury that two of PC Andrew Harper’s killers could walk free halfway through their sentences. Mr Burnham said the ringleader would not qualify but stopped short of guaranteeing the others would serve full terms, promising to examine “every single part” of the scheme before it takes effect in September.
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FTSE Hits a Five-Month High as Gilts Stay Pinned Near 5 Per Cent
London’s blue-chip index closed at its highest since February, powered by miners and oil majors, even as the government-bond market kept the new administration on a short leash. The FTSE 100 finished at 10,716.97, up 1.24 per cent, and gold hit a record. But ten-year gilt yields held near 5 per cent, still the highest in the G7, and sterling slipped below $1.34 despite the softer June inflation figures.
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Burnham Courts Scotland and Wales as Sarwar Heads to the Lords
The new Prime Minister opened a charm offensive with the devolved nations, winning cautious goodwill from the Scottish and Welsh first ministers, who said he seemed readier to listen than Sir Keir Starmer. In a linked move, the Scottish Labour leader, Anas Sarwar, is standing down to take a peerage and a ministerial post, reshaping the party’s leadership north of the border less than a year before the Holyrood election.
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Morning Briefing
What It Means For You
- Cheaper Buses & Bills: Single bus fares in England will be capped at £2 from January, down from £3, in Andy Burnham’s second cost-of-living measure in two days after scrapping VAT on electricity. Inflation has also fallen to 2.6 per cent, a 15-month low, largely on cheaper petrol and diesel.
- Petrol & Energy: The relief may be brief: Brent crude has climbed towards $93 a barrel, its highest in five weeks, as an eleventh night of US strikes on Iran and a Houthi blockade of Red Sea shipping keep the pressure on. Forecasters expect inflation to climb back towards 3.4 per cent by November.
- Savings & Markets: Ten-year gilt yields are holding near a two-month high around 5 per cent and the pound has slipped below $1.34, as investors question how the giveaways will be funded before the autumn Budget. Economists warn tax rises may follow. Gold hit a fresh record.
GEO Geopolitical
US Bombs Iran for an Eleventh Night as Trump Threatens Natanz
American forces struck Iran for an eleventh consecutive night, with air defences firing over Tehran and blasts reported near Bushehr, Tabriz and Chabahar. US Central Command said the barrage was designed to keep degrading Iran’s ability to threaten Hormuz shipping. President Trump threatened to hit a suspected underground enrichment site near Natanz, known as “Pickaxe Mountain”, warning: “We’ll be hitting that area pretty soon, and very heavily.” The American military death toll has reached eighteen.
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Rubio Says Iran Is “Not Serious” About Talks as Strikes Go On
The US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, said Tehran was “not serious” about negotiations as the two sides traded an eleventh night of fire, with a mediator-tabled ten-day ceasefire still unaccepted. Washington is holding out for a longer pause and a guarantee of safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz first. A US official said the strikes would continue until the President decided otherwise, “but talks between our countries are continuing”.
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Oil Nears $93 as the Houthis Turn Back Saudi Tankers
Brent crude climbed towards $93 a barrel, a five-week high, after Yemen’s Houthis enforced a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia, forcing two tankers laden with Saudi crude bound for China and India to reverse course in the Red Sea. With the Strait of Hormuz already throttled, the closure threatens the kingdom’s main alternative export route. Kazakhstan separately halted Black Sea exports after a fourth drone strike on tankers at its Novorossiysk terminal.
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Ukraine Launches a 400-Drone Raid on the Moscow Region
Ukraine struck an oil depot and logistics hubs across the Moscow region in one of its largest drone raids of the war, with Russian officials claiming more than 400 drones approached the capital. President Zelensky said Kyiv had also hit six Russian vessels in the Black Sea, including sanctioned “shadow fleet” tankers. Russia, meanwhile, pressed one of its heaviest ballistic barrages on Kyiv.
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Two Firefighters Die as Record Wildfires Ravage France
Two firefighters were killed battling a blaze near Bordeaux-Mérignac airport as France endures its worst wildfire season on record. More than 42,000 hectares have burned since January, surpassing the 2022 record, with a separate out-of-control fire in the Var forcing evacuations. President Macron said France had not seen so many blazes since the Second World War.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Burnham Caps Bus Fares at £2 in a Fresh Cost-of-Living Blitz
Single bus fares across England will be capped at £2 from January and held there through 2027, the Prime Minister has announced, cutting the current £3 limit by a third for millions. It is Andy Burnham’s second cost-of-living intervention in as many days, after Tuesday’s VAT cut on domestic electricity. The scheme, which he ran as Greater Manchester mayor, is backed by £454m of funding.
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Inflation Slips to 2.6 Per Cent, a 15-Month Low, as Fuel Falls
Inflation fell to 2.6 per cent in the year to June, down from 2.8 per cent in May and below the 2.7 per cent economists had expected, official figures showed. It is the lowest reading since spring 2025, driven chiefly by cheaper diesel and petrol, with food and clothing prices also easing. The figures hand the new Prime Minister an early, if fragile, boost as he presses his cost-of-living measures.
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Economists Warn Burnham’s Giveaways Point to Autumn Tax Rises
As the government trumpets cheaper energy and bus fares, economists warn the spending points to tax rises at the Chancellor’s first Budget. June borrowing came in at £16bn, some £7.9bn below a year earlier but still ahead of official forecasts, and analysts say there is little room for extra borrowing. The Institute for Fiscal Studies has questioned how this year’s giveaways will be sustained beyond 2026.
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Gilts Hold Near 5 Per Cent as Markets Eye the Bank of England
The cooler inflation print offered only limited comfort to bond markets, where British borrowing costs remain the highest in the G7. Ten-year gilt yields are holding around 5 per cent and the pound has slipped below $1.34 to a one-week low, after the Prime Minister’s remarks about fiscal “flexibility” rattled investors on Monday. Attention now turns to the Bank of England’s rate decision on 30 July, where a hold is expected.
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Sacked Starmer Loyalists Nurse Their Wounds on the Backbenches
Mr Burnham’s swift purge of Sir Keir Starmer’s allies has left a restive bloc of former ministers on the Labour benches, testing party discipline in his opening days. Pointed parting shots — the ousted Treasury minister Darren Jones has already needled the government over its “unfunded” energy policy — suggest the peace will be uneasy. Some MPs have dismissed the reshuffle as the “same gang, different seats”.
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Evening Briefing
What It Means For You
- A Cost-of-Living Government: Andy Burnham chaired his first Cabinet and declared a “cost-of-living government”, confirming VAT scrapped on domestic electricity from 1 October — about £45 off a typical bill — though a sacked minister branded it “unfunded”. Markets steadied: the FTSE reversed higher to close up and official figures showed pay growth cooling.
- Petrol & Energy: Brent crude rebounded above $91 a barrel as a tenth night of US strikes, a stalled truce and a new Houthi blockade of Red Sea shipping overwhelmed diplomacy hopes. Petrol pumps and winter energy bills remain squeezed.
- Savings & Markets: Ten-year gilt yields held near a two-month high around 5 per cent and sterling stayed soft as investors waited to see how Mr Burnham’s giveaways will be funded; the real test comes at the autumn Budget. Gold hit a fresh record high.
GEO Geopolitical
Iran Weighs a Ten-Day Truce as Trump Demands Tehran Pay
Tehran has received a mediator proposal for a ten-day ceasefire to salvage last month’s interim deal, Iran’s foreign ministry confirmed on Tuesday, signalling that diplomatic channels remain open. Washington is holding out for a longer pause and firm Strait of Hormuz navigation guarantees before any halt, and says its strikes will continue until the President decides otherwise. A tenth consecutive night of American bombing preceded the overtures.
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Oil Rebounds Above $91 as the Houthis Blockade the Red Sea
Brent crude rebounded to more than $91 a barrel on Tuesday, reversing an early dip, after Yemen’s Houthis declared a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia and a tanker was abandoned off Oman. The blockade opens a second front in the region’s shipping war, widening supply fears from the Gulf to the Red Sea, even as mediators pressed a ceasefire proposal. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains near a standstill.
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ASEAN Demands a Hormuz Truce as Rubio Lands in Manila
Southeast Asian foreign ministers opened their annual meeting in Manila on Tuesday under the shadow of the US–Iran war, preparing a joint statement demanding an immediate halt to hostilities and the restoration of safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, arrived for his first visit to the region as America’s top diplomat, as Washington condemned a “dangerous” Chinese clash with the Philippine navy.
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Kazakhstan Halts Black Sea Oil Exports After Tanker Drone Strikes
Kazakhstan suspended crude shipments through its main export terminal near Russia’s Novorossiysk on Tuesday after a wave of drone attacks left tanker operators too nervous to sail, threatening roughly 80 per cent of the country’s oil exports. The strikes on vessels loading Kazakh crude, widely attributed to Ukraine, have dragged a neutral third country’s energy lifeline into the Black Sea shipping war.
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Russia and Ukraine Trade Heavy Drone Barrages as Talks Stall
Russia and Ukraine exchanged fresh waves of drone attacks overnight into Tuesday, with Moscow claiming more than 200 Ukrainian drones downed and Kyiv reporting dozens of Russian strike drones. Russia said it had again hit cargo vessels at Ukraine’s Chornomorsk port, which it alleged were carrying military supplies. No date has been set for the peace talks Kyiv has been pressing for.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Burnham Tells His First Cabinet: We Are a Cost-of-Living Government
Andy Burnham chaired the first meeting of his new Cabinet on Tuesday, declaring his administration a “cost-of-living government” and ordering every department to find ways to ease the squeeze on households. Convening ministers a day after purging eleven of Sir Keir Starmer’s allies, he told them Labour was now “one team” and that all new policies must show how they would be paid for. The confirmed first act — scrapping VAT on domestic electricity from 1 October — set the tone.
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Sacked Starmer Ally Brands Burnham’s Energy Cut “Unfunded”
Mr Burnham’s first major policy was overshadowed within hours when Darren Jones, dismissed from the Cabinet a day earlier, branded the VAT cut on electricity “unfunded”. Mr Jones, who ran the very digital ID scheme whose cancellation is meant to pay for it, argued that programme had no money attached in the first place, so the saving cannot bankroll cheaper bills. The intervention, widely read as revenge for the purge, exposed the new government to accusations of loose accounting on day one.
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Recess Shields Burnham From the Commons Until September
The new Prime Minister will face no Commons scrutiny for six weeks, with Parliament in its summer recess until 1 September and his first Prime Minister’s Questions not due until then. The Conservatives, who tried and failed to delay the recess so Mr Burnham could be questioned on taking office, accused Labour of “running scared”. A government majority of more than 150 blocked the motion, leaving Tuesday’s funding row to play out online rather than on the floor of the House.
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Trump Signals a Manchester Visit After a “Very Good” First Call
Downing Street and the White House confirmed details of Mr Burnham’s first call as Prime Minister with Donald Trump, who called it a “very good conversation” and signalled the pair would meet before long. The two discussed North Sea oil, the military alliance and the de-mining of the Strait of Hormuz. Mr Burnham said he hoped to show the president “what Manchester has to offer” — a striking warming days after Mr Trump branded Britain a “Poverty Stricken Disaster”.
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Burnham Sets Up “No 10 North” and Merges Whitehall Departments
Mr Burnham’s first full day brought structural change to Whitehall as well as policy. Downing Street confirmed a new Manchester base for the Prime Minister’s office — dubbed “No 10 North” — while the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology was abolished and folded back into an enlarged business department, with a new Cabinet-level artificial-intelligence minister created. The moves signal Mr Burnham’s intent to govern from beyond Westminster, even as unions warned of disruption.
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Morning Briefing
What It Means For You
- A New Government Takes Shape: Andy Burnham confirmed his Cabinet on his first full day, naming John Healey as Chancellor, with Ed Miliband at the Foreign Office and Rachel Reeves out. His first act was to scrap VAT on domestic electricity from 1 October, expected to cut a typical bill by around £45 a year.
- Petrol & Energy: Brent crude eased back towards $88 a barrel as mediators floated a ten-day truce, but a tenth night of US strikes on Iran and blocked Strait of Hormuz shipping keep prices near five-week highs. Pump and energy costs stay elevated.
- Savings & Markets: The bond market took fright — ten-year gilt yields hit a two-month high near 5 per cent and sterling slipped — as investors waited for the new Chancellor and questioned how the giveaways will be funded. Watch this week’s inflation and borrowing data.
GEO Geopolitical
US Strikes Iran for a Tenth Night as Tehran Hits Kuwait
American forces bombed Iranian military targets for a tenth consecutive night, with explosions reported across Qeshm Island, Bandar Abbas, Sirik, Shiraz and Isfahan. Tehran retaliated before dawn on Tuesday, its army claiming surface-to-surface missiles struck US HIMARS launchers at Camp Arifjan in Kuwait, where air defences were activated. The American military death toll stands at seventeen, and the Pentagon says nearly a hundred troops have been wounded in the past fortnight.
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Mediators Table a Ten-Day Truce as Iran Signals Openness to Talks
Mediators have handed Tehran a proposal for a ten-day ceasefire to revive last month’s collapsed interim deal, a senior Iranian official said, though Washington has played down the prospect of the President accepting it. The US Secretary of State said America remained open to a diplomatic solution if Iran halted its attacks. Iran asked Pakistan to resume its mediating role even as the strikes continued.
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Oil Retreats From a Five-Week High on Ceasefire Hopes
Brent crude slipped around 0.9 per cent towards $88 a barrel on Tuesday, easing from Monday’s near-$90 close, as reports of a ten-day truce proposal offset the tenth night of strikes and fresh tanker fires in Hormuz. Prices remain near five-week highs and up roughly 20 per cent this month. The retreat came despite Yemen’s Houthis declaring a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia.
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Russian Missiles Kill Ten on a Grain Ship Off Odesa
A Russian cruise-missile strike on the Golden Leo, a bulk carrier laden with corn, killed at least ten as it left Odesa — the deadliest attack yet in a widening Black Sea campaign. The dead included nine foreign crew from Syria and India and a Ukrainian port pilot. In retaliation, Ukraine launched more than 400 drones at the Moscow region overnight, striking an oil depot and wounding at least ten people.
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Ukrainian Civilian Toll Hits a Wartime Record as Crimea Link Is Cut
Russia’s intensifying long-range strikes drove Ukrainian civilian casualties to their highest monthly level since April 2022, United Nations monitors reported — 293 killed and nearly 2,000 injured in June. War analysts said Ukraine’s drone campaign has now partly severed the main road link between mainland Russia and occupied Crimea, forcing Moscow to divert scarce air defences.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Healey Made Chancellor as Burnham Purges Starmer’s Ministers
Andy Burnham has confirmed a sweeping Cabinet on his first full day as Prime Minister, naming John Healey — the former defence secretary who quit over military funding — as Chancellor in a surprise choice. Ed Miliband becomes Foreign Secretary, Shabana Mahmood stays as Home Secretary, Angela Rayner returns to housing and Wes Streeting takes defence. Rachel Reeves, David Lammy and nine other Starmer-era ministers are out.
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Burnham Scraps VAT on Electricity in His First Act as PM
Andy Burnham has used his first full day in office to remove VAT from domestic electricity bills from 1 October, his opening cost-of-living measure. The Chancellor, John Healey, said the cut is funded by cancelling the previous government’s digital ID programme and will lower the Ofgem price cap by around £45 a year. The move delivers on Mr Burnham’s Downing Street pledge to give households “breathing space”.
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Markets Take Fright as Gilt Yields Hit a Two-Month High
Government borrowing costs jumped to their highest in two months and the pound fell after Mr Burnham said he would use “any flexibility” within the fiscal rules. The ten-year gilt yield rose to around 5 per cent, sterling slipped to $1.34 and the FTSE 100 closed lower. Rachel Reeves’s departure, and the delay in naming a Chancellor, unsettled investors who had treated her fiscal rules as an anchor.
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Trump Brands Britain “Poverty Stricken” as Burnham Courts the President
Mr Burnham’s first day was overshadowed by Donald Trump, who called Britain a “Poverty Stricken Disaster” while praising reports the new Prime Minister could ease curbs on North Sea drilling. In their first phone call, Mr Burnham invited Mr Trump to visit Manchester and stressed his commitment to defence and to Strait of Hormuz shipping security. Downing Street says he will honour Labour’s manifesto on oil and gas, pursuing “a change of emphasis” rather than new licences.
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Farage Demands a Snap Election as Badenoch Attacks “Airy Fairy” Plans
Opposition leaders have rounded on Mr Burnham’s unelected arrival in Downing Street. Reform’s Nigel Farage demanded an immediate general election, saying the Prime Minister has “no mandate” beyond his Makerfield by-election. The Conservative leader, Kemi Badenoch, branded his agenda “airy fairy” and, in a letter, urged him to rule out tax rises while refusing to hand him a “blank cheque”. Mr Burnham faces his first Prime Minister’s Questions on Wednesday.
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Evening Briefing
What It Means For You
- A New Prime Minister: Andy Burnham is now in Downing Street, pledging help with the cost of living this week and an end to rough sleeping. Rachel Reeves has gone as Chancellor, with Shabana Mahmood tipped to replace her — the choice markets will judge first.
- Petrol & Energy: Brent crude spiked above $90 overnight before easing back to around $88 as Iran hinted at talks. Pumps and winter bills remain exposed to the Strait of Hormuz; the average US petrol price has already touched $4 a gallon.
- Tax & Spending: The new government inherits a £110bn debt-interest bill and a “tax lock” on income tax, VAT and national insurance. That leaves little room for giveaways without an autumn Budget, so watch the Treasury as the new Chancellor is named.
GEO Geopolitical
US Strikes Iran for a Ninth Night as Third American Dies
US Central Command struck Iran for a ninth consecutive night, hitting Revolutionary Guard air defences, missile stores and coastal surveillance sites it says threaten Hormuz shipping. The attacks followed confirmation that a third American service member had been killed since Friday — two in an Iranian missile strike on the Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan and one in northern Iraq. Seventeen US personnel have now died in the war, with more than 430 wounded.
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Iran Signals Openness to Talks Yet Suspends Its Commitments
Iran said it remained open to negotiations even as the strikes continued. The foreign ministry spokesman, Esmail Baghaei, said intermediaries had gone on exchanging messages with Tehran throughout the latest American bombardment, and that talks could be pursued on Iran’s terms. Hours earlier the deputy foreign minister, Kazem Gharibabadi, said Iran had suspended its commitments under the memorandum of understanding signed last month, deepening doubts over the fragile framework.
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Oil Breaks $90 Then Retreats as Iran Hints at Diplomacy
Brent crude jumped nearly 4 per cent overnight to break $90 a barrel — its highest since mid-June — before easing to around $88 as Iran’s openness to talks tempered supply fears. US West Texas Intermediate slipped to $82.24 a barrel. Yemen’s Houthis declared an immediate maritime embargo on Saudi Arabia, while the average American petrol price touched $4 a gallon.
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Russian Strike on Grain Ship Near Odesa Kills Ten
At least ten people were killed when a Russian strike hit a cargo vessel near the Ukrainian port of Odesa. The Guinea-Bissau-flagged ship, carrying corn and crewed by Indian and Syrian nationals, was struck as Russia said it had targeted fuel reservoirs at the port; eight crew were rescued. The attack pushed July’s death toll in the Odesa region to twenty-eight.
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Ukraine Launches 400 Drones at Moscow, Hitting an Oil Depot
Ukraine sent more than 400 drones against the Moscow region overnight, striking logistics sites and an oil depot over 400km inside Russia. The mayor, Sergei Sobyanin, said most were shot down, including 85 near the capital, but at least ten people were wounded, among them a child and three Chinese citizens. It was one of the largest drone assaults on the capital of the war.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Burnham Becomes PM, Vowing a ‘Circuit-Breaker for Britain’
Andy Burnham became the United Kingdom’s seventh prime minister in a decade on Monday, after King Charles III asked him to form a government following Sir Keir Starmer’s resignation. In his first speech outside Downing Street, Mr Burnham promised to end political instability and pledged help with the cost of living this week, with an end to rough sleeping as an immediate priority. He had been Labour leader for barely three days.
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Reeves and Lammy Out as Burnham Reshapes the Cabinet
Mr Burnham moved swiftly to remake the government, with Rachel Reeves resigning as Chancellor and David Lammy departing as Deputy Prime Minister. The business secretary, Peter Kyle, was sacked, while the housing secretary, Steve Reed, and the science secretary, Liz Kendall, also left. The home secretary, Shabana Mahmood, was reported the frontrunner to become Chancellor, with Ed Miliband, John Healey and Louise Haigh seen entering No 10.
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New PM Inherits £110bn Debt Bill and a Stalled Economy
Mr Burnham takes office facing acute fiscal constraints. The government spent £110bn on debt interest in 2025-26 — about 8 per cent of all public spending — while taxes are forecast to reach their highest share of the economy since the Second World War by the end of the decade. Borrowing has run higher than planned this year, and the economy he inherits has barely grown in two decades.
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Trump Hails North Sea Plan, Calls Britain ‘Poverty Stricken’
President Trump welcomed Mr Burnham’s plan to fast-track North Sea oil and gas exploration, writing on Truth Social that the move would take the United Kingdom from a “Poverty Stricken Disaster, to one of the Richest Countries anywhere in the World”. The new Prime Minister is expected to permit new drilling in already-licensed fields, a notable break from his predecessor’s energy stance. Mr Trump had last month called Mr Burnham “extremely liberal”.
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Reform Leads or Levels With Labour as Burnham Takes Over
Mr Burnham inherits a party under pressure from Reform UK. A YouGov poll for The Times and Sky News on 12-13 July put Reform on 24 per cent, five points clear of the Conservatives and Labour on 19 apiece. A separate Survation survey found Labour and Reform tied on 24 per cent each — Labour’s largest single upward movement since the 2024 general election.
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Morning Briefing
What It Means For You
- A New Prime Minister Today: Andy Burnham enters Downing Street today. He is expected to name his Cabinet, with Shabana Mahmood tipped as Chancellor, scrap the digital ID scheme and promise cost-of-living help. Expect a change of economic direction, though he has bound himself to the manifesto “tax lock” on income tax, VAT and national insurance.
- Petrol & Energy: Brent crude has topped $90 a barrel — its highest since mid-June — after a ninth night of US strikes on Iran and a seizing-up of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Petrol pumps and winter energy bills are directly exposed, and a further squeeze on the strait would push both higher.
- Savings & Markets: Markets have read the handover as orderly — sterling is steady near $1.35 and ten-year gilt yields eased to 4.94 per cent — but the oil spike is now the main inflation risk. Watch the pound and gilts as the new Chancellor is named.
GEO Geopolitical
America Bombs Iran for a Ninth Night as Tabriz Is Hit
US forces completed a ninth consecutive night of strikes on Iran, with explosions reported from the Gulf ports of Sirik and Jask to Chabahar and, for the first time in the campaign, the north-western city of Tabriz. Central Command said it had targeted command centres, air defences and missile and drone launch sites. Iranian authorities reported at least 50 people killed and more than 500 wounded, and the American military death toll has now reached seventeen.
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Iran Strikes Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan in Gulf-Wide Retaliation
Tehran launched a fresh wave of missiles and drones at American allies across the Gulf overnight, sounding air-raid sirens in Bahrain’s capital and striking Kuwait for a second straight day. The Revolutionary Guard said it had fired ballistic missiles at US aircraft at Jordan’s Aqaba airport, claiming “heavy damage”, and had hit the Ali al-Salem airbase in Kuwait. Jordan said its air defences downed several missiles without casualties.
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Brent Tops $90 as Tankers Burn and Hormuz Shipping Seizes Up
Oil surged above $90 a barrel on Monday, its highest since mid-June, after the ninth night of strikes and a third American death revived fears over the Strait of Hormuz. Brent rose more than 2.5 per cent to around $90.50, capping a near-16 per cent weekly gain. Only four vessels transited the strait on Sunday, down from eight, and Britain’s maritime authority reported a vessel on fire off the coast of Oman.
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Russia Unleashes One of the War’s Largest Barrages on Kyiv
Russia fired one of its heaviest ballistic salvoes of the war overnight, launching around 40 missiles — including ten Zircon anti-ship weapons — and 125 drones, mostly at Kyiv. President Zelensky said it was among the largest strike packages against the capital region since 2022, killing at least one civilian and wounding sixteen. A postal sorting terminal in Kharkiv was also hit, killing three.
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Ukrainian Drones Cripple Russia’s Black Sea Fuel Lifeline
Ukraine pressed a sweeping long-range campaign against Russian energy and naval targets, striking three oil depots in Stavropol Krai some 600km inside Russia and setting off large fires. Ukrainian commanders said their forces had hit 176 Russian vessels in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov since 6 July and destroyed five ferries handling around 80 per cent of military transport to occupied Crimea, cutting the Kerch crossing’s capacity by three-quarters.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Burnham to Enter Downing Street as Britain’s Seventh PM in a Decade
Andy Burnham is due to become Prime Minister today after Sir Keir Starmer tenders his resignation to King Charles III. Sir Keir is expected to give a farewell address outside Downing Street this morning before travelling to Buckingham Palace; Mr Burnham will then be invited to form a government and deliver his own first speech around midday. The former Greater Manchester mayor, an MP again for barely a month, was elected Labour leader unopposed on Friday.
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Mahmood Tipped for Chancellor as Burnham Keeps the Cabinet Guessing
Mr Burnham is expected to begin naming his Cabinet only after entering Downing Street, and no appointment has been confirmed. The Home Secretary, Shabana Mahmood, is the reported frontrunner for Chancellor — a choice framed as reassuring to markets and a setback for the energy secretary, Ed Miliband, who is tipped instead for the Foreign Office. Rachel Reeves is expected to be replaced, with comebacks anticipated for Wes Streeting and Angela Rayner.
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Burnham to Axe Starmer’s Digital ID Scheme on Day One
In his first confirmed break from Sir Keir’s programme, Mr Burnham has said he will scrap plans for a government-issued digital ID for all British adults, redirecting the money — reported at around £2bn — to cost-of-living help. His office says one of the new government’s first acts will be to put its focus “where people need it right now”. Conservatives accused him of claiming credit for a retreat already forced by their pressure.
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New PM to Promise “Breathing Space” With Energy Bills in His Sights
Mr Burnham is expected to use his first speech to pledge “breathing space” on the cost of living. A package is anticipated among his first acts, with his team examining a radical energy-bills overhaul, drawn up by the thinktank Nesta, that could cut a typical household’s bill by about £130 a year and make running a heat pump cheaper than a gas boiler. Nothing has been announced or delivered as of this morning.
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Farage Demands an Immediate Election as Burnham “Has No Mandate”
Mr Burnham takes office facing loud calls for a general election. Reform UK’s Nigel Farage says the incoming Prime Minister has “absolutely no mandate of any kind at all” and that voters, not Labour MPs, should decide who governs. The Conservative leader, Kemi Badenoch, has stopped short of demanding an election but dismissed Mr Burnham’s programme as “airy fairy” and cast him as a “people pleaser” unwilling to take tough decisions.
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Evening Briefing
What It Means For You
- Energy Bills: The price cap rose 13 per cent on 1 July, from £1,641 to £1,862 a year for a typical direct-debit household — gas up 24 per cent, electricity up 5 per cent, driven by the Middle East conflict. Roughly 40 per cent of accounts on fixed-term deals are shielded for now; around two million households are already in debt to their supplier, with average arrears up from £1,848 to £2,270 in two years.
- A New Government Tomorrow: Andy Burnham takes office on Monday and will name his Cabinet the same day, with Shabana Mahmood reported to be heading to the Treasury ahead of Ed Miliband. He inherits Labour’s pledge not to raise the main tax rates but has declined to rule out a wealth tax, so autumn fiscal choices are genuinely open.
- Travel & Fuel: The American embassy in Amman urged citizens to avoid Aqaba’s airport and seaport and all Jordanian military sites after an Iranian missile was intercepted over the Red Sea resort; Jordan insists both are operating normally. Brent finished Friday at $88.10, up more than 14 per cent on the week, which will keep forecourt prices firm.
GEO Geopolitical
Washington and Amman Publicly Contradict Each Other Over Aqaba
The American embassy in Amman issued a security alert saying Jordan was “evacuating the King Hussein International Airport and seaport in the Red Sea resort town of Aqaba due to a specific and credible threat”, advising citizens to avoid both sites and all Jordanian military installations. Within hours the Jordanian government flatly denied it. The dispute came a day after Washington confirmed two American personnel had been killed in Jordan, with a third missing.
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Jordanian and Israeli Forces Intercept Iranian Missiles Over Aqaba
Israeli and Jordanian forces intercepted Iranian missiles aimed at Aqaba on Sunday afternoon, the Jordanian military reporting three shot down and a fourth falling in a deserted area. The Israeli military had identified launches from Iran towards the port some forty minutes earlier and warned of possible spillover into Israeli territory. Aqaba lies immediately adjacent to Eilat, and no casualties were reported.
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Senior Senate Democrat Calls the Iran Conflict “A War of Choice”
Senator Mark Warner, the ranking Democrat on the Senate Intelligence Committee, said on CBS’s Face the Nation that American bases in the Middle East had been “on and off under attack” throughout the five months of the conflict and that it remained a war of choice, with no imminent Iranian threat when it began in February. His remarks followed the deaths of two American service members at a Jordanian base at the weekend.
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Rubio Hosts Lebanon’s President Before a Rare White House Visit
The Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, met President Joseph Aoun of Lebanon in Washington on Sunday ahead of talks with President Trump on Tuesday — the first visit by a Lebanese head of state since Michel Sleiman met Barack Obama in 2009. The State Department said Mr Rubio had commended Beirut’s effort to reclaim Lebanese sovereignty and disarm Hezbollah.
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Zelensky Faces Stalemate Over the Sacking of His Defence Minister
The dismissal of Ukraine’s defence minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, an architect of the country’s drone programme, has hardened into a political crisis. More than a thousand people rallied in central Kyiv waving Ukrainian and European flags and chanting “bring Fedorov back”; a deputy commander of the air force and two of Mr Fedorov’s advisers resigned in protest, and parliament is reported to be reluctant to confirm a successor.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Burnham to Name His Cabinet on Monday, With Mahmood Tipped for No 11
Andy Burnham will appoint his Cabinet on Monday, hours after accepting the King’s invitation to form a government. Shabana Mahmood, the Home Secretary, is reported to be his choice as Chancellor, with Ed Miliband — the early favourite and a key ally — expected to move to the Foreign Office instead. Nothing is confirmed until the appointments are announced.
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Burnham Inherits a Slowing Economy and a Strained Washington Relationship
The incoming Prime Minister takes office facing an economy squeezed by the fallout from the Iran conflict, strained public finances and mounting pressure on public services, with growth widely expected to slow sharply this year as inflation rises. He is bound by Labour’s commitment not to raise its main tax rates, though he has refused to rule out a wealth tax.
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Energy Bills Up 13 Per Cent Define the New Government’s In-Tray
The cost-of-living package Mr Burnham has promised meets an energy market already 13 per cent more expensive: the price cap rose on 1 July from £1,641 to £1,862 a year for a typical direct-debit household, the highest since early 2024. Gas bills rose 24 per cent and electricity 5 per cent, driven by wholesale gas costs after Iran moved against the Strait of Hormuz.
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Labour Narrows the Gap on Reform as the Burnham Bounce Registers
Labour has recovered ground in the polls during the leadership contest while Reform UK has slipped. YouGov, publishing on 13 July, put Reform on 24 per cent with the Conservatives and Labour tied on 19; Opinium, three days earlier, had Reform on 24 and Labour on 19, a one-point gain for Labour and a one-point drop for Reform. Both leave Reform in front.
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Channel Crossings Fall 41 Per Cent as the Asylum Bill Divides Labour
Some 11,884 people crossed the Channel in small boats between January and June, a 41 per cent fall on the 19,982 recorded over the same period in 2025, figures cited in the Commons show. Ministers also told MPs that arrests of people smugglers were up 55 per cent and that 46,000 attempted crossings had been stopped in partnership with French law enforcement.
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Morning Briefing
What It Means For You
- Petrol & Energy: American forces struck Iran for an eighth consecutive night and Brent crude is holding near a one-month high of $88, up about 14 per cent on the week. Markets are shut for the weekend, but forecourt and energy-bill pressure will persist, and a confirmed move against a second shipping chokepoint would push prices higher still.
- A New Prime Minister Tomorrow: Andy Burnham enters Downing Street on Monday and has confirmed he will scrap the roughly £2bn digital ID scheme, redirecting the money to the cost of living. His deputy says he will be “bolder” while keeping the manifesto, with a cost-of-living package and the full Cabinet expected on Monday. Expect a clear change of direction.
- Savings & Markets: The war-risk premium in oil persists, the ten-year gilt yield sits near 4.97 per cent, and Friday brought a safe-haven bid into gold and bonds. A prolonged oil shock is the main threat to the inflation the incoming government has promised to bring down.
GEO Geopolitical
US Bombs Iran for an Eighth Night to “Punish” the Revolutionary Guard
American forces struck Iran for an eighth consecutive night into Sunday, hitting coastal surveillance, air-defence and missile-storage sites at Sirik, Qeshm Island, Bandar Abbas and near Shadegan. Central Command said the raids were designed to degrade Iran’s ability to threaten Hormuz shipping and to “swiftly punish” the Revolutionary Guard units behind Friday’s deadly attack on a US base in Jordan. Iranian media reported that a desalination plant was destroyed, cutting water to some 10,000 people.
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American Death Toll in the Iran War Climbs to Sixteen
The American military death toll in the conflict rose to sixteen on Sunday after a Navy pilot missing earlier in the month was declared dead, the second increase this week following the two soldiers killed in Jordan. President Trump, mourning the fallen, called the deaths “a very sad thing” and repeated that Washington would never allow Iran a nuclear weapon. Iran’s health ministry says at least 50 people have been killed and more than 500 wounded over three weeks.
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Iran Hits a Kuwait Plant Again as Bahrain Sirens Wail
Iran pressed its Gulf retaliation on Sunday, launching a large drone attack on two US facilities in Kuwait and striking again the Kuwaiti power-and-water plant hit the previous day, restarting a fire. Bahrain sounded air-raid sirens for a sixth time in hours. The Revolutionary Guard said it had downed a US MQ-9 drone over Ahvaz and warned that vessels defying its Hormuz rules would “certainly face accidents”.
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Russia Fires a Record Ballistic Barrage at Kyiv, Killing One
Russia launched its largest number of ballistic missiles against Kyiv since the start of the war early on Sunday — 41 missiles, including 25 ballistic, alongside 125 drones nationwide. One person was killed and at least sixteen wounded across six districts of the capital. Ukraine said it downed eighteen missiles and 108 drones, suggesting its depleted interceptor stocks have been partly replenished.
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Dozens Missing as a Guyana Ferry Capsizes With 116 Aboard
A passenger ferry, the MV Barima, capsized off Guyana’s coast while sailing from the capital, Georgetown, to Port Kaituma, carrying 116 passengers and crew. It issued a distress call late on Saturday. Prime Minister Mark Phillips said 53 people had been rescued by Sunday, with authorities hoping to find more in daylight. The cause is not yet clear.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Burnham to Scrap Starmer’s £2bn Digital ID Scheme
Andy Burnham will axe Sir Keir Starmer’s flagship digital identity programme when he takes office on Monday, redirecting the money — put at around £2bn — to the cost of living in what his team calls a “reset of priorities”. It is the first major policy break from his predecessor that Mr Burnham has confirmed before entering Downing Street. The scheme, announced last year for right-to-work checks, drew a petition of roughly three million signatures.
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Burnham Will Be Bolder but Keep the Manifesto, Says His Deputy
Labour’s deputy leader, Lucy Powell, said Andy Burnham would stand by the 2024 manifesto while being “bolder and more ambitious”, using the change of leader to “clear the decks” and focus on the cost of living. Speaking on the BBC’s Sunday programme, she defended scrapping digital ID as “reprioritising” and backed greater public ownership, arguing the economy had been “overly privatised”.
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Badenoch Dismisses Burnham’s Plans as “Airy-Fairy Stuff”
The Conservative leader, Kemi Badenoch, used the BBC’s Sunday programme to attack Andy Burnham as a “people pleaser” unwilling to take tough decisions, dismissing his weekend pronouncements as “airy-fairy stuff”. She refused to give the incoming Prime Minister “a blank cheque” and rejected his call for less political point-scoring, vowing to score “as many points as possible” in the national interest.
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Rayner Tipped for a Cabinet Return as Burnham’s Team Takes Shape
Angela Rayner is being lined up for a Cabinet comeback as Andy Burnham finalises his top team over the weekend, according to reports, with Wes Streeting also expected to return. One account suggesting Ms Rayner would take Health to lead an £18bn National Care Service was dismissed by sources close to her. The full Cabinet will be confirmed only after Mr Burnham enters Downing Street on Monday.
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Farage’s Finances Dog Reform on the Eve of the Handover
As Labour prepares to take power, Reform UK remains under pressure over Nigel Farage’s finances: a tax expert claims the party could face a £3m bill over his undeclared £5m donation, on top of a paused parliamentary standards inquiry and calls for an Electoral Commission investigation. Mr Farage denies any wrongdoing and alleges an “establishment hit job”.
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Evening Briefing
What It Means For You
- Petrol & Energy: Brent crude settled near $88 a barrel — a one-month high, up more than 14 per cent on the week — as the US–Iran war choked the Strait of Hormuz. Forecourt prices and the wholesale gas price that sets energy bills are directly exposed, and a fresh sustained closure of the strait would push both higher.
- A New Prime Minister on Monday: Andy Burnham enters Downing Street on Monday signalling a change of direction — a cost-of-living package that would cut VAT on energy and make heat pumps cheaper, a shift towards new North Sea drilling, and greater public control of utilities such as Thames Water, with Shabana Mahmood tipped as Chancellor. Expect tax and spending decisions in the autumn.
- Savings & Markets: The ten-year gilt yield sits near 4.97 per cent and a safe-haven bid lifted gold on Friday, but a prolonged war-driven oil shock is the main threat to the inflation the incoming government has promised to bring down.
GEO Geopolitical
Two US Troops Killed as Iranian Missiles Strike Jordan Base
Two American service members were killed and one remains missing after an Iranian ballistic missile and drone attack on the Muwaffaq Salti airbase at Azraq in Jordan late on Friday, US Central Command said. Four others were taken to hospital and later discharged. They are the first American fatalities of the renewed conflict, and prompted a direct retaliatory bombing order from Washington.
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Iran Strikes Kuwait, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia in Widening Barrage
Iran launched attacks across the Gulf on Saturday, striking a Kuwaiti power and desalination plant and an oil facility, hitting Bahrain’s Sheikh Isa airbase, and firing a ballistic missile at a US base at al-Kharj near Riyadh — its first strike on Saudi territory in nearly three months. Kuwait International Airport suspended operations; Jordan said it intercepted four drones and ten missiles.
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Oil Jumps to a One-Month High as West Demands Strait Reopened
Oil prices climbed more than four per cent to their highest in over a month as Iran and the United States traded strikes on energy and shipping infrastructure, with Brent settling around $88 a barrel. Washington reimposed a naval blockade of Iranian ports, while Tehran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed. The European Union and Gulf states jointly demanded that Iran halt its attacks and keep the waterway open without fees.
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Ukrainian Drones Cripple Russia’s Largest Retailer’s Warehouses
Ukrainian long-range drones struck two vast logistics hubs of Wildberries, Russia’s largest online retailer, near Moscow and in Tambov overnight, causing fires and losses estimated at up to 100 billion roubles, around $1.3bn. Russian governors said the strikes killed eight and injured more than sixty. On the front, Russia’s top general, Valery Gerasimov, again claimed sweeping advances in Donetsk that war analysts say the evidence does not support.
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Lebanon’s President Heads to the White House Over Israeli Withdrawal
The Lebanese President, Joseph Aoun, departed for Washington to meet President Trump, the first visit by a Lebanese head of state since 2009. Mr Aoun will press for American guarantees on an Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, reinforcement of the fragile framework agreement, and a reconstruction package. The trip follows US-mediated talks in Rome that agreed “pilot zones” for a phased Israeli pull-back.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Mahmood Favourite for Chancellor as Burnham Finalises His Team
The Home Secretary, Shabana Mahmood, has become the frontrunner to replace Rachel Reeves as Chancellor when Andy Burnham names his Cabinet on Monday, after his inner circle objected to the early favourite, Ed Miliband, now tipped for the Foreign Office. Seen as being on Labour’s right and able to reassure markets, Ms Mahmood has no prior economic brief. Mr Burnham insists no final decision has been made.
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Burnham Plans New North Sea Drilling in Break With Manifesto
Andy Burnham will announce plans for new North Sea oil and gas drilling once in office, a shift from Labour’s 2024 manifesto pledge to issue no new licences. Green figures and campaigners rounded on him within hours, while industry and unions welcomed the move. Sources stress that no final decision has been made and that the plan may come after his first day.
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Burnham Lines Up a Cost-of-Living Package to Cut Energy Bills
Andy Burnham is preparing a cost-of-living package as one of his first acts as Prime Minister, reportedly including making heat pumps cheaper than gas boilers and cutting VAT on domestic energy. Aides say he intends a “dynamic start”, with a Downing Street speech promising households “breathing space” and growth “in every postcode”.
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Labour Pulls Level With Reform in the Final Starmer-Era Poll
Labour has drawn level with Reform UK on 24 per cent each, up five points and its biggest single jump since the 2024 election, in Survation’s last poll of Sir Keir Starmer’s leadership. Reform fell three points to 24 per cent, its lowest in over a year; the Conservatives rose to 21. Prompting voters with Mr Burnham’s name made no difference, suggesting he is already seen as the de-facto leader.
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Thames Water Awaits Burnham as First Public-Ownership Test
Debt-laden Thames Water, around £20bn in the red and serving 16 million customers, is shaping up as the earliest test of Mr Burnham’s pledge for “greater public control” of essential services. He has said there is a strong case for public ownership; the company’s lenders say they want to see what a Burnham government intends before providing more funding.
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Morning Briefing
What It Means For You
- Petrol & Energy: Brent crude jumped to about $88 a barrel — up around 16 per cent on the week — as the widening US–Iran war throttled traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Forecourt prices and the wholesale gas price that sets energy bills are directly exposed, and a confirmed move on a second chokepoint would push both higher.
- A New Prime Minister on Monday: Andy Burnham enters Downing Street on Monday with an interventionist agenda — public control of essential services, a large council-housing drive, and no ruling-out of a wealth tax — with Shabana Mahmood tipped as Chancellor. Expect a shift in economic direction and likely tax decisions in the autumn.
- Savings & Markets: Fear drove a safe-haven move on Friday: gold rose and UK and US government bond yields eased, but a chip-led sell-off pushed shares lower and the “fear gauge” jumped around 12 per cent. A sustained oil shock would feed the inflation the new government has promised to bring down.
GEO Geopolitical
Iran Warns of “Full-Scale Offensive” After a Seventh Night of Strikes
US Central Command said it completed a seventh consecutive night of strikes on Iran early on Saturday, hitting weapons stores and maritime targets around Bandar Abbas and the Strait of Hormuz. A senior adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, Mohsen Rezaei, warned that Tehran would move to “full-scale offensive operations” within days if the barrage continued through the weekend. Iranian officials say 38 people have been killed and more than 400 wounded over the past week.
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Iran Hits Kuwaiti Power Plant as the War Spills Across the Gulf
Iran’s retaliation reached deep into Gulf civilian infrastructure, with Kuwait reporting that an Iranian strike damaged a combined power and desalination plant, starting a fire and knocking out generating units. Desalination supplies around 90 per cent of Kuwait’s drinking water, exposing the vulnerability of the Gulf states now caught in the war. Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar said their air defences intercepted further drone attacks overnight, and Kuwaiti forces reported injuries among their troops.
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Oil Surges to $88 as Strait of Hormuz Shipping Collapses
Brent crude settled 4.6 per cent higher at $88.10 a barrel on Friday, capping a weekly gain of about 16 per cent — its strongest in months — as the US–Iran strikes choked the Strait of Hormuz. Confirmed crude transit through the waterway has fallen by around 62 per cent to some four million barrels a day. Tehran has pressed Yemen’s Houthis to be ready to close the Red Sea, raising the prospect of a second severed chokepoint.
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Russia Digs In for Attrition War as Putin’s Approval Slumps
Russia is optimising its forces for grinding positional warfare rather than the mechanised manoeuvre needed for rapid gains, and neither side made confirmed advances on Friday, according to the latest campaign assessment. A Russian state-affiliated pollster recorded one of the sharpest falls in President Putin’s approval since the war began. In Kyiv, President Zelensky pressed on with a sweeping wartime cabinet reshuffle, installing a new prime minister and moving to change his defence chief.
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Powerful Earthquake Rattles Southern Mexico, No Deaths Reported
A magnitude 7.3 earthquake struck off the coast of Chiapas in southern Mexico, shaking buildings from Mexico City to El Salvador and briefly triggering a Pacific tsunami advisory that was later lifted. Authorities reported no deaths and only minor injuries and structural damage across Mexico, Guatemala and El Salvador. President Claudia Sheinbaum said preliminary reports showed no significant damage in the affected states.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Burnham Declared Labour Leader, to Become Prime Minister on Monday
Andy Burnham was formally declared leader of the governing Labour Party on Friday, securing nominations from 379 of the party’s 403 MPs as the sole candidate to succeed Sir Keir Starmer. The former Greater Manchester mayor becomes Britain’s seventh prime minister since 2016 when Sir Keir tenders his resignation to the King on Monday. In his first speech Mr Burnham promised to “give people hope back” and to build “a new politics”.
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Reeves Faces the Axe as Burnham Lines Up a New Chancellor
Rachel Reeves is expected to leave the Treasury when Mr Burnham names his government on Monday, with the Home Secretary, Shabana Mahmood, the reported frontrunner to become Chancellor. The energy secretary, Ed Miliband, once tipped for the role, is instead expected to move to the Foreign Office. Mr Burnham’s team insists no final decisions have been taken and that the full cabinet will be appointed only after he enters Downing Street.
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Labour Pulls Level With Reform as Burnham Inherits a Polling Boost
Labour has drawn level with Reform UK on 24 per cent apiece, according to a Survation poll, its largest jump since the 2024 general election and the first time it has caught Reform in the series for more than a year. The Conservatives trail on 21 per cent. A separate Ipsos poll found Mr Burnham is the public’s clear choice for prime minister on 30 per cent, well ahead of Nigel Farage and Kemi Badenoch.
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Farage to Fight a Record 33 Rivals in Clacton By-Election
Nigel Farage will face a record 33 candidates in the Clacton by-election on 13 August, a contest he triggered himself by resigning as an MP on 7 July and re-standing. His resignation suspended a parliamentary standards inquiry into an undeclared £5m donation from the businessman Christopher Harborne. Labour, the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens are all boycotting the seat.
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Burnham Pledges a Power Shift From Westminster and a Housing Drive
In his first speech as Labour leader, Mr Burnham set out a programme built on shifting power out of Whitehall, “the biggest council house building programme since the postwar period”, and fixing social care. He argued that Britain took “a series of wrong turns in the 1980s” when power was centralised and essential services privatised, promising “good growth in every postcode” and greater public control of utilities.
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Evening Briefing
What It Means For You
- Petrol & Energy: Brent crude jumped around 2% to about $86 a barrel as the US widened its strikes on Iran and Iran hit a Gulf power plant. Pump prices, near 151p a litre, will keep climbing, and the wholesale gas price that sets energy bills is exposed to the same shock.
- A New Prime Minister on Monday: Andy Burnham was confirmed Labour leader today and enters No 10 on Monday. He has signalled a more interventionist course — greater public control of essential services, more social housing, and he has not ruled out a wealth tax — with Shabana Mahmood tipped as Chancellor. Expect a shift in economic direction and likely tax rises in the autumn.
- Heat, Fire & Water: Today was forecast to be the hottest of the spell, up to 35 to 36C in the South, before a cooler, more unsettled weekend brings a risk of heavy showers and thunderstorms. Hosepipe bans now cover millions of households. Save water, and take care in any sudden downpours.
GEO Geopolitical
US Strikes Iran’s Bridges and Bandar Abbas Port on a Sixth Night
American forces widened their campaign against Iran overnight, striking five road and rail bridges in Hormozgan province in an apparent bid to sever the port city of Bandar Abbas from its links to Tehran. US Central Command said precision munitions hit dozens of military targets near Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island, collapsed a tower at the port complex, and again struck Iranshahr airport; US forces also boarded a tanker. It was the sixth consecutive night of strikes, enacting part of President Trump’s threat to “knock out all their bridges”, though the threatened strikes on power plants have not been carried out.
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Iran Hits a Kuwaiti Water and Power Plant, Widening the War
Iran’s retaliation reached deep into Gulf civilian infrastructure, with Kuwait reporting that an Iranian strike damaged a combined desalination and electricity plant, starting a fire and knocking out several generating units. Desalination supplies around 90% of Kuwait’s drinking water, laying bare the vulnerability of the Gulf states now caught in the war. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, which called it part of a “15th wave” of its operation, also claimed strikes on US assets in Qatar, Bahrain, Jordan and Oman, though those claims could not be verified.
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Oil Climbs Toward $86 as Iran Threatens a Second Chokepoint
Brent crude rose around 2% on Friday to roughly $86 a barrel, its highest in weeks, after the strike on Kuwait’s power plant and the widening US campaign, with tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz at a two-month low. Adding to the alarm, Tehran was reported to have told Yemen’s Houthis to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait — a second vital chokepoint for global shipping — if its power infrastructure is struck. Together the two straits carry a large share of the world’s seaborne oil.
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Russian Strikes Kill Four in Ukraine as the Reshuffle Backlash Grows
Russian attacks overnight killed at least four people and wounded around twenty across Ukraine, with two dead in Odesa, two in Zaporizhzhia and injuries in Kharkiv. The strikes came as Ukraine fights under an interim defence chief following President Zelensky’s contested government reshuffle, whose sacking of the popular defence minister Mykhaylo Fedorov has drawn protests in several cities. Ukraine said it had destroyed a Russian Tu-95 bomber at the Engels airbase, some 800 kilometres inside Russia, in its continuing campaign against the aircraft and refineries that sustain Moscow’s war.
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A Spanish Wildfire Forces Evacuations as Europe’s Heat Rebuilds
Firefighters in north-eastern Spain battled a wildfire near Ores in Aragon that spread past 12,000 hectares overnight, forcing more than a thousand people to evacuate, with some 30 aircraft and 300 military personnel deployed. Further fires burned near Madrid and in Guadalajara, and Athens was on high alert. Though the heatwave that set the continent alight is receding — the World Health Organization has linked the recent spell to around 10,000 excess deaths — forecasters warn temperatures will rebuild from Saturday, with 42 to 44C possible in southern Spain next week.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Burnham Declared Labour Leader, Vowing the “Biggest Rebalancing”
Andy Burnham was formally declared leader of the Labour Party at a special conference in London today, the last step before he enters Downing Street on Monday as Prime Minister. The sole candidate, backed by the overwhelming majority of Labour’s MPs and most of the affiliated unions, he used his acceptance speech to promise to “give people hope back” and “good growth in every postcode”, pledging the “biggest rebalancing” of power in modern British history from Whitehall to the cities and regions. He said his government would be “unashamedly Labour”, named social care as a neglected problem he would fix, and paid tribute to Sir Keir Starmer.
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Burnham’s Economic Pitch: Public Control of Essentials
In his first remarks as leader, Andy Burnham set out an interventionist economic direction, arguing that the government could not control inflation without greater public control over essential services. He named a ramp-up in social housing, the reindustrialisation of the economy and bringing essential utilities under greater public control as priorities, framing them against a squeezed cost of living. The pitch marks a clear shift in tone from the outgoing government’s fiscal caution, and sits alongside his refusal to rule out a wealth tax.
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Mahmood Set for Chancellor as the Cabinet Takes Shape
Reports say Andy Burnham is set to name the Home Secretary, Shabana Mahmood, as his Chancellor, having chosen her over Ed Miliband, Yvette Cooper and Wes Streeting. Mr Miliband, once the favourite, is now seen as unlikely for the Treasury amid business concern over his energy stance, and Rachel Reeves is reported to be leaving the Chancellorship. No appointments are confirmed, and Mr Burnham is expected to name his cabinet only after he enters Downing Street on Monday.
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China Rebukes Britain Over the British Steel Nationalisation
China reacted angrily to the nationalisation of British Steel, with its commerce ministry saying it was “strongly dissatisfied” and warning the move had dealt “a severe blow to Chinese companies’ confidence in investing in the UK”. The government took the Scunthorpe steelworks — Britain’s last able to make steel from raw materials — and its Teesside mills into public ownership on Thursday, protecting thousands of jobs, after the Chinese owner Jingye, which bought the business for £70m in 2020, moved to halt operations at a plant losing around £700,000 a day.
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Heatwave Peaks as Thunderstorms Loom for the Weekend
Friday was forecast to be the hottest day of Britain’s third heatwave, with temperatures expected to reach 35 to 36C in southern and eastern England under heat-health alerts that ran until this evening. A cooler, more unsettled spell is due to arrive over the weekend as fresher Atlantic air moves in, bringing a rising risk of heavy showers and thunderstorms, with the potential for downpours, lightning and gusty winds. Two more hosepipe bans, from Cambridge Water — its first in three decades — and Affinity Water, are now in force, part of a wave of restrictions across the country.
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Morning Briefing
What It Means For You
- Petrol & Energy: Oil is holding around $84 to $85 a barrel as the US blockade keeps shipping through the Strait of Hormuz near a two-month low, and pump prices — close to 151p a litre — are climbing again. The wholesale gas price that sets energy bills is exposed to the same shock.
- A New Prime Minister on Monday — and Tax Rises Ahead: Andy Burnham is confirmed Labour leader today and becomes Prime Minister on Monday, with Shabana Mahmood tipped as his Chancellor. He has not ruled out a wealth tax and has hinted at “asking for a little more”, so plan for tax rises in the autumn Budget.
- Heat, Fire & Water: Today brings another hot day, with up to 35 to 36C possible in the South, before a cooler, more unsettled spell with thunderstorms reaches the country over the weekend. Two more hosepipe bans, from Cambridge Water and Affinity Water, take effect today. Keep saving water and check on the elderly and unwell.
GEO Geopolitical
US Strikes Hit Iranian Airport, Railway and Bridges Overnight
American forces struck Iran again overnight, US Central Command said, in another night of a campaign now approaching a week, hitting air-defence, logistics and coastal-surveillance sites. Iranian state media reported strikes on Iranshahr airport, the Bandar Abbas railway junction and two bridges in Hormozgan province. Iran’s health ministry put the toll since the fighting resumed at more than 35 killed and over 300 wounded — a figure that cannot be independently verified. President Trump threatened to widen the war “next week”, saying the US would “knock out all their power plants… all their bridges” if Tehran refused a deal.
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US Spares Kharg’s Oil Terminal as Trump Holds Off Wider Action
For all the talk of escalation, the US has so far stopped short of its most drastic options. American forces struck military targets on Kharg Island but deliberately avoided the oil terminal that handles the bulk of Iran’s crude exports, which Iran says is undamaged and operating normally, and no decision has been announced on the mooted seizing of the island or the use of ground forces. The naval blockade of Iran’s ports holds, though Trump has dropped an earlier idea of charging a toll on Hormuz shipping.
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Iran’s Strikes Reach the Gulf Mediators, Straining Diplomacy
Iran’s retaliation continued to rain on US-linked sites across the Gulf — Jordan and Kuwait reported intercepting missiles and drones, with debris damage but no deaths — and, more damagingly for any peace effort, reached the mediators themselves. Oman, which had hosted Iran’s foreign minister only hours earlier, issued a rare formal protest to Tehran after strikes on its territory, and Qatar was also hit. The White House insisted Iran “very much continues to talk”, but the attacks on the very states brokering a ceasefire have left the diplomacy badly frayed.
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Zelensky’s Wartime Reshuffle Sparks a Backlash
President Zelensky’s decision to overhaul his government in the middle of the war has drawn an unusually public backlash. The dismissal of the popular defence minister Mykhaylo Fedorov, architect of Ukraine’s drone programme, along with the departure of the prime minister, triggered protests in several cities and criticism from soldiers, veterans and lawmakers who fear the loss of momentum. The reshuffle came as Russia struck Kyiv, killing at least two, and as Ukrainian drones hit a Russian refinery at Syzran, deepening Moscow’s fuel troubles.
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Congo’s Ebola Outbreak Remains the Fastest-Growing on Record
The Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo stands at more than 2,000 confirmed cases and over 750 deaths, the fastest-growing outbreak of the disease ever recorded and now the third-largest, according to the World Health Organization, which warns the true scale may be several times the official count. The Bundibugyo strain involved has no approved vaccine, though a clinical trial of an antibody treatment has begun. Ituri province is worst hit, and a handful of cases have crossed into Uganda.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Burnham to Be Confirmed Labour Leader Today
Andy Burnham will be formally confirmed as Labour leader at a special party conference today, having secured the leadership unopposed, and becomes Prime Minister on Monday when the King appoints him after Sir Keir Starmer resigns. In his first speech as leader he is expected to promise to be “unashamedly Labour” and to show the “courage to fix the big things that politics has neglected”. It completes one of the swiftest transfers of power in modern British history, a man outside Parliament weeks ago installed in Downing Street by Monday.
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Mahmood Set for Chancellor as the Cabinet Takes Shape
Reports say Andy Burnham is set to name the Home Secretary, Shabana Mahmood, as his Chancellor, passing over the early favourite Ed Miliband, who is now tipped for the Foreign Office. Mahmood is said to have beaten Mr Miliband, Yvette Cooper and Wes Streeting to the Treasury; Rachel Reeves is expected to be replaced. Mr Miliband’s candidacy for the Treasury had reportedly unsettled business over his stance on net zero and North Sea licensing. Burnham’s team stress no appointments are confirmed until he takes office.
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The Heat Reaches Another Hot Day as More Hosepipe Bans Begin
The heatwave brings another hot day on Friday, with the Met Office forecasting widely above 30C across England and Wales and up to 35 or 36C in the hottest spots, under yellow heat-health alerts that run until this evening. A cooler, more unsettled spell with thunderstorms is expected to reach the country over the weekend, though the South stays warm into Saturday. Two more hosepipe bans, from Cambridge Water and Affinity Water, took effect from just after midnight, covering parts of the East and South East and adding to restrictions on millions of households.
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Widdecombe Suspect Still Held as Scotland Brings a Charge Over Online Abuse
The man arrested over the killing of Ann Widdecombe remains in custody without charge, held under a Terrorism Act warrant while Counter Terrorism Policing leads what it has called a targeted attack; officers stress it has not been declared a terrorist incident. In a separate case, Police Scotland has charged a 50-year-old over online comments said to celebrate her death, with a report to go to the procurator fiscal. No motive has been established in the killing, and reporting restrictions limit what can be said while proceedings are active.
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The Starmer Government’s Final Acts: Kyiv and British Steel
Sir Keir Starmer’s premiership closed on two deliberate notes. On his last overseas trip he travelled to Kyiv, pledging £255m with Sweden towards 16 Gripen fighter jets for Ukraine and being awarded the Order of Freedom, telling Kyiv Britain’s support “will endure” under his successor. At home, his government took British Steel into public ownership, securing the Scunthorpe blast furnaces — Britain’s last able to make steel from raw materials — and thousands of jobs from its Chinese owner. Both now pass to Andy Burnham.