Weekly Roundup
The stories that defined this week View roundup
The Week In Numbers
- Brent crude traced the widest weekly swing of the Gulf war. It opened the week around $88 after a seventh consecutive night of US strikes on Iran, climbed to a six-week high above $100 by Thursday as the Houthis choked the Red Sea and Saudi tankers turned back, then retreated to $95.90 by Saturday’s close once Washington paused its bombing and both sides signalled talks. WTI held in the mid-$90s. The VIX spiked to 19.36 on Thursday before easing to 17.79; the American death toll from the war reached sixteen by mid-week. US airstrikes ran from a seventh night on 18 July to a thirteenth by 24 July.
- UK inflation slipped to 2.6 per cent in June, a fifteen-month low, as fuel and food costs eased — yet ten-year gilt yields touched a two-month high above 5.10 per cent, leaving Britain with the costliest borrowing in the G7. The FTSE 100 hit a five-month high of 10,717 on Wednesday before settling at 10,710, up on the week; sterling held around $1.334 and gold firmed to $4,078. Retail sales jumped in June on the warm weather and business activity reached a three-month high. The Bank of England is expected to hold Bank Rate at its meeting on Thursday.
- Andy Burnham entered Downing Street on Monday as Britain’s seventh prime minister in a decade, and within his first week scrapped VAT on domestic electricity, capped bus fares at £2, axed Sir Keir Starmer’s £2bn digital ID scheme and cut business rates for pubs and music venues. Across the Channel, wildfires forced more than 267,000 people to flee France and Spain — up from 166,000 at midweek — while a Cairngorms blaze was declared a major incident and Britain braced for a fourth heatwave with 35C alerts. A record 165 migrants crossed the Channel in a single boat.
What Moved Forward
Burnham Enters Downing Street and Launches a Cost-of-Living Blitz
DomesticAndy Burnham walked into Downing Street on Monday, vowing a “circuit-breaker for Britain” and reshaping the Cabinet at once — John Healey to the Treasury as Chancellor, Rachel Reeves and David Lammy out. Within days he had scrapped VAT on domestic electricity, capped bus fares at £2, axed Starmer’s £2bn digital ID scheme, cut business rates for pubs and music venues and stood up a “Number 10 North” in Manchester. The former mayor governs, unusually, without a Commons seat, shielded from Prime Minister’s Questions by the summer recess until September. A “Burnham bounce” narrowed Reform’s poll lead to near parity, though the new premier has ruled out a snap election.
US Halts Its Strikes on Iran as Both Sides Signal Talks
GeopoliticalAfter thirteen consecutive nights of American bombing — Tabriz, Natanz and the fortified “Pickaxe Mountain” enrichment site all struck — Washington paused its campaign by the weekend as mediated contacts resumed. Iran, which had spent the week firing back across the Gulf at bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan and Saudi Arabia, reported its first “peaceful night” and both sides confirmed indirect talks, with the Strait of Hormuz at the centre of the dispute. Trump ruled out a formal deal “for now” even as the guns fell quiet, and the Houthis’ claimed strikes on Saudi Aramco sites remained unverified. The first genuine de-escalation of the war, if it holds.
Oil Retreats Below $100 as the War-Risk Premium Unwinds
MarketsBrent crude, which had surged to a six-week high above $100 on Thursday as the Red Sea blockade bit and a Saudi tanker burned, unwound much of that spike to settle at $95.90 by Saturday once Washington halted its strikes. The FTSE 100 rebounded to 10,710 and gilts steadied as the oil panic faded; the VIX fell back from 19.36 to 17.79. Pump prices, which had jumped as crude topped $100, are expected to ease if the calm endures — a reprieve for Burnham’s cost-of-living plan, which had been squeezed by every dollar on the barrel. Markets closed the week pricing through the ceasefire signals rather than the strikes.
Inflation Falls to a Fifteen-Month Low of 2.6 Per Cent
MarketsConsumer price inflation slipped to 2.6 per cent in June, its lowest in fifteen months, as falling fuel and food costs offset stubborn services prices. Retail sales jumped over the month on the run of warm weather and a purchasing-managers’ survey showed business activity at a three-month high. The data handed the new government a rare piece of good economic news in its first week and firmed expectations that the Bank of England will hold Bank Rate on Thursday rather than resume cuts. The relief is fragile: the surge in oil through mid-week threatened to feed back into transport costs before crude retreated at the weekend.
What Stalled
The Iran War Grinds On With No Deal in Sight
GeopoliticalFor all the weekend’s de-escalation, the war remained unresolved. Trump spent the week threatening a “massive” strike, vowing to bomb a bridge or power plant for every ship hit and menacing Natanz and “Pickaxe Mountain”, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio dismissed Tehran as “not serious” about talks. A mediators’ proposal for a ten-day truce circulated early in the week but never firmed into agreement, and Trump ruled out a deal “for now” even as the strikes paused. A senior Senate Democrat branded the conflict “a war of choice”. The ceasefire is a lull, not a settlement, and the Hormuz blockade has yet to lift.
Gilt Yields Hit a Two-Month High, the Costliest in the G7
MarketsEven as inflation eased, the price of government borrowing climbed. Ten-year gilt yields pushed above 5.10 per cent at a two-month high, leaving Britain with the highest funding costs in the G7 and sterling slipping on the strain. Markets took fright early in the week at Burnham’s run of unfunded giveaways — the VAT cut, the bus-fare cap, cheaper energy bills — with economists warning the largesse points to autumn tax rises. Chancellor John Healey vowed a “fiscal buffer” to reassure the bond market, but the arithmetic of a £110bn debt-interest bill and a stalled economy leaves little room. The gilt market is the first hard constraint on the new premiership.
Russia–Ukraine Talks Falter as Zelensky Sacks His Army Chief
GeopoliticalRubio and Sergei Lavrov met in Manila to test peace hopes, but the diplomacy went nowhere as both armies traded heavy blows. Russian missiles killed ten on a grain ship off Odesa and struck a Kyiv event killing at least ten more; Ukraine answered with 400-drone raids on the Moscow region and strikes crippling Russia’s Black Sea fuel network. President Zelensky sacked his army chief after days of protests in Kyiv, and the Institute for the Study of War reported the Kremlin laying the ground for fresh mobilisation. Ukrainian civilian casualties reached a wartime record. Eighteen months of attrition show no sign of a breakthrough.
Channel Crossings Return as a Record Boat Lands
DomesticA record 165 migrants crossed the Channel in a single boat, a stark reminder that small-boat arrivals remain Burnham’s toughest political test even as overall crossings ran 41 per cent below last year. The new government has offered no fresh enforcement legislation, and the asylum question continues to divide Labour’s benches. Nigel Farage, preparing to fight a record 33 rivals in the Clacton by-election, demanded an immediate general election on the grounds that Burnham “has no mandate”. With the Commons in recess, the argument played out in the newspapers rather than the chamber — but it will not wait until September.
What To Watch Next Week
The Bank of England’s Thursday Rate Decision
MarketsThe Monetary Policy Committee meets on Thursday with markets betting on a hold at the current Bank Rate, the first policy verdict of the Burnham era. June’s fall in inflation to 2.6 per cent argues for patience; the two-month high in gilt yields and the mid-week oil spike argue against any dovish signal. The decision, and Governor Andrew Bailey’s language on the fiscal outlook, will be read closely by a bond market already nervous about the new government’s unfunded pledges. Any hint that rate cuts have been pushed further out would tighten the vice on mortgage-holders and on Healey’s promised “fiscal buffer” alike.
Whether the Iran Ceasefire Signals Hold
GeopoliticalThe weekend’s pause is the war’s first real opening for diplomacy, but it rests on indirect contacts and a Trump who has ruled out a deal “for now”. The test is whether the quiet survives contact with the Strait of Hormuz, still effectively blockaded, and with the Houthis, whose claimed strikes on Aramco sites remain unverified. A durable truce would pull Brent back towards $90 and hand Burnham a cost-of-living dividend; a single tanker attack or a resumed American strike would send crude back above $100 within a session. Watch the shipping lanes, the mediators’ language and the first oil futures to reopen on Sunday night.
Burnham’s Funding Gap and the Threat of Autumn Tax Rises
DomesticThe bill for Burnham’s first-week giveaways now comes due. Economists have warned that scrapping VAT on electricity, capping bus fares and cutting business rates — without offsetting savings — points to tax rises in an autumn Budget, even as the Prime Minister has ruled out immediate increases. Sacked Starmer loyalists have already branded the energy cut “unfunded” from the backbenches. Healey must reconcile the “cost-of-living government” framing with a £110bn debt-interest bill and the costliest borrowing in the G7. Expect the Treasury’s search for revenue — and the internal Labour argument over where it falls — to sharpen through the recess.
Europe’s Fires and Britain’s Fourth Heatwave
DomesticWith more than 267,000 people already displaced across France and Spain and EU water-bombers stretched thin, the wildfire emergency shows no sign of easing as another hot spell builds. At home, Britain braces for a fourth heatwave with temperatures near 35C and widening heat-health alerts; a Cairngorms blaze declared a major incident forced a village to flee, and hosepipe bans continue to spread as reservoirs run low. The week also brought an Essex explosion that hospitalised twenty firefighters. Watch for fresh evacuations abroad, new fire and drought warnings across England, and the strain a prolonged heatwave places on water companies such as the embattled Thames Water.
Evening Briefing
What It Means For You
- Mortgages: The Bank of England held interest rates at 3.75 per cent today and played down an imminent rise — gilt yields fell and markets trimmed bets on higher rates. But the Bank warned it could still act if the oil shock feeds inflation.
- Petrol: Oil eased back to the high $80s after the recent spike, though it stays elevated with the US now striking Iran directly. Petrol prices may steady, but the risk of further rises persists.
- Water: Drought still covers more than half of England and hosepipe bans affect 23 million people, even as the heat eases. Keep using water sparingly.
GEO Geopolitical
Iran Retaliates for US Strikes; Washington Denies Losses
Iran said it had struck back at American forces on Thursday in retaliation for the US strikes on its soil, claiming to have hit an air base in Jordan and destroyed three F-35 fighter jets. Central Command flatly denied any losses, saying no US aircraft were damaged and that all missiles and drones were intercepted or failed. A worker was killed when an Iranian strike hit a company building in northern Kuwait, the one confirmed death of the exchange.
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Russian Missile Hits Poland as NATO Scrambles Jets
A Russian missile crashed and exploded in a village in eastern Poland on Thursday, gouging a wide crater but causing no injuries, in an alarming spillover of the war in Ukraine onto NATO territory. The alliance scrambled fighter jets and surveillance aircraft in response, and its Secretary-General, Mark Rutte, called it “yet another reckless act by Russia”. Poland’s prime minister said “everything indicates” the missile was Russian.
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Russia's Overnight Barrage Kills Eight Across Ukraine
Russia fired more than seventy missiles and over two hundred and eighty drones at Ukraine overnight, killing at least eight people, including children, and wounding dozens. Six died in the Dnipropetrovsk region — among them a six-year-old girl — with others killed in Kyiv and Poltava and more than thirty wounded in Lviv. President Zelensky called air defence “the most important task” and renewed his appeals to allies for more interceptors.
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Japan Earthquake Death Toll Climbs to 34
The death toll from this week’s powerful earthquake in south-western Japan has risen to at least thirty-four, local officials said, nearly doubling from the eighteen reported in the morning. Rescuers pressed on through the rubble of a collapsed shopping mall and a paper factory in Kumamoto prefecture, though hopes of finding more survivors were fading. Several people remained unaccounted for.
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Israeli Strikes Hit Gaza During Cairo Truce Talks
Israeli strikes killed at least four people, including children, across the Gaza Strip on Thursday, health officials said, even as Hamas met Egyptian, Qatari and Turkish mediators in Cairo to discuss a possible truce. Israel signalled it would not accept an emerging plan for Hamas to disarm, and vowed to keep its forces in Gaza until the group is fully demilitarised. The talks were the most substantive in weeks.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Bank of England Holds Rates but Warns It Could Raise Them
The Bank of England held interest rates at 3.75 per cent on Thursday, the fifth meeting in a row without a change, but warned it stood ready to raise them if the oil-price shock from the Iran war fed through into wages and prices. The Governor, Andrew Bailey, said the Bank was “not edging” towards a rise and saw “no evidence” yet of second-round effects, but cautioned that disinflation was proceeding “at a slow pace”. The decision was not unanimous.
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FTSE Hits Record High as Markets Shrug Off Oil Fears
The FTSE 100 climbed to a record intraday high, close to 11,000, before slipping back to finish broadly flat, as investors took heart from the Bank of England’s steady message and a partial retreat in oil prices. Gilt yields fell back below 5 per cent and sterling firmed after the noon decision, while traders pared bets on an early rate rise. Brent crude eased to the high $80s, off the near-$90 peak of the morning.
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Burnham Signals a Pragmatic Turn on North Sea Oil
Andy Burnham signalled a softening of Britain’s energy stance on Thursday, saying the country “can’t ignore” its North Sea oil and gas and would take a “pragmatic” approach to the reserves. The Prime Minister made the remarks after discussions with President Trump, who has pressed the UK to expand drilling. The shift marks a notable step back from the net-zero-first line of recent years.
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Greater Manchester Votes to Replace Burnham as Mayor
Polls were open across Greater Manchester on Thursday in the by-election to choose a successor to Andy Burnham as mayor, with more than two million people eligible to vote. The contest, triggered by his move to Downing Street, pits Labour against Reform UK and others, and is seen as an early test of the political mood. Counting is due to begin after polls close, with a result expected overnight.
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Drought Grips England as the Heatwave Eases
Cooler and more unsettled weather began to spread across Britain on Thursday, bringing relief after the fourth heatwave of the summer peaked at 35C, but the drought gripping more than half of England showed no sign of lifting. With little rain forecast for the parched regions, hosepipe bans affecting some 23 million people are set to remain. Hospitals had been forced to postpone some appointments during the hottest days.
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Morning Briefing
What It Means For You
- Petrol: With the United States now striking Iran directly, oil is holding near $90 a barrel — petrol and diesel prices are likely to rise. Watch the pumps in the days ahead.
- Mortgages: The Bank of England decides interest rates at noon today and is expected to hold, but gilt yields have climbed to 5.06 per cent and lenders are raising mortgage rates. Borrowing costs look set to stay high.
- Water: Drought now covers more than half of England, with hosepipe bans affecting 23 million people even as the heat eases. Keep using water sparingly.
GEO Geopolitical
US Launches Direct Strikes on Iran
The United States launched a wave of direct strikes on Iranian soil overnight, a sharp escalation from the attacks on Iran-aligned militias in Iraq the day before. Central Command said it had hit “dozens” of Revolutionary Guard targets — command centres, missile and drone sites and coastal defences — across southern Iran, including Qeshm Island, Bushehr and the oil-producing province of Khuzestan. An Iranian couple and their two-year-old child were reported killed when a residential building on Qeshm was hit.
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Jordan Intercepts Five Iranian Missiles Overnight
Jordan’s military said it shot down five Iranian missiles heading for the kingdom early on Thursday, with no casualties reported. The interception came hours after the United States struck targets inside Iran, and pointed to the widening arc of a war now drawing in Iran’s neighbours. Amman has repeatedly found itself in the path of missiles and drones exchanged across the region.
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Russian Missiles Kill Seven in Kyiv
Russian ballistic missiles struck the Ukrainian capital overnight, killing at least seven people, Ukrainian officials said. The attack came a day after President Zelensky returned from Washington warning that Ukraine’s safety depended on its allies supplying more air defences. Rescuers searched damaged buildings as the death toll was expected to rise.
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Japan Quake Rescuers Search On as Toll Stands at 18
Rescuers in southern Japan searched through a second day for survivors of the powerful earthquake that has killed at least eighteen people, with several still missing. Crews picked through a collapsed shopping mall and a paper factory in Kumamoto prefecture, on the island of Kyushu. The magnitude-7.1 quake struck in the early hours of Wednesday.
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Iraq Condemns US Strikes as Violation of Sovereignty
Iraq condemned the joint US and Saudi strikes on Iran-aligned militias on its soil as a “flagrant violation” of its sovereignty, and its prime minister cancelled what would have been his first official visit to Saudi Arabia in protest. The strikes, part of the widening war with Iran, killed fighters from the Iran-backed Popular Mobilisation Forces. Baghdad demanded an explanation from Washington and Riyadh.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Bank of England to Decide as Oil Spike Revives Inflation Fears
The Bank of England announces its interest-rate decision at noon on Thursday, with economists expecting it to hold Bank Rate at 3.75 per cent even as the oil-price surge from the Iran war revives fears of stubborn inflation. Gilt yields climbed to around 5.06 per cent, their highest in months, and markets braced for a more hawkish tone. The US Federal Reserve held its own rates steady overnight.
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Burnham to Unveil £8.4bn Nuclear-Submarine Investment
The government will announce an £8.4bn investment in Britain’s next generation of nuclear submarines, tied to a visit to the shipyards at Barrow-in-Furness. Ministers cast the money as protecting the country and securing thousands of skilled jobs, with the renewal of the Trident deterrent placed at the heart of defence policy. The pledge comes as Andy Burnham faces pressure over wider defence spending.
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Manchester Votes for a Mayor to Replace Burnham
Voters in Greater Manchester go to the polls on Thursday to choose a successor to Andy Burnham as mayor, following his move to Downing Street. The by-election is an early test of the new Prime Minister’s standing and of Labour’s grip on a region Mr Burnham led for eight years. Turnout in the summer contest is expected to be low.
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Heatwave Eases but Drought Still Grips England
Cooler weather is forecast to spread across parts of Britain on Thursday after the fourth heatwave of the summer peaked at 35C, but there is still no rain in sight for the drought-hit regions. Drought has been declared across more than half of England, with hosepipe bans affecting some 23 million people. Hospitals were forced to postpone some blood tests during the hottest days.
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Reform Donor Moved $2m to Mother Before Party Gifts
A close associate of Reform UK, George Cottrell, transferred around $2m to his mother shortly before she made a series of donations to the party, according to an investigation that raises fresh questions over the source of its funding. The transfers, reported on Thursday, add to the scrutiny the party has faced over the transparency of its finances. Reform has previously rejected suggestions of impropriety in its fundraising.
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Evening Briefing
What It Means For You
- Petrol: The escalation of the US–Iran war sent oil surging around 7 per cent to near $90 a barrel — the highest in months. Expect petrol and diesel prices to climb; watch the pumps in the days ahead.
- Mortgages: The Bank of England decides on interest rates at noon tomorrow. Gilt yields jumped to around 5.04 per cent and lenders including Santander and Halifax have raised mortgage rates — borrowing costs are set to stay high.
- Water: Drought has been declared across half of England, with hosepipe bans affecting more than 23 million people. Use water sparingly, and take care in the 35C heat — especially elderly or vulnerable neighbours.
GEO Geopolitical
Trump Vows to Hit Iran Hard as US Strikes Iraqi Militias
President Trump vowed to hit Iran “hard” after Iranian forces again fired missiles at American troops in Jordan, as the war that reignited overnight widened through the day. US and Saudi warplanes struck Iran-aligned militias in Iraq, and Iraqi sources said around twenty fighters were killed. Central Command described the latest Iranian barrage as an intercepted “surprise attack”.
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Drone Strikes a Tanker at an Egyptian Port
A drone struck a gas tanker at Egypt’s Damietta port on Wednesday, in a sign the Middle East conflict is spreading to the eastern Mediterranean. The vessel, reported to be US-owned, was hit as it sat at the terminal; the maritime-security firm Ambrey and two security sources confirmed the strike. No party claimed responsibility and Egyptian officials had not commented.
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Ukraine Strikes Russian Refineries and Industrial Sites
Ukraine struck deep inside Russia on Wednesday, saying it had hit two major oil refineries, as fires broke out at industrial plants following a wave of drone attacks. Russian reports said a warehouse complex in the Ryazan region was evacuated and at least six people were injured. The strikes came days after President Zelensky met Mr Trump at the White House.
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Japan Earthquake Death Toll Rises to 18
The death toll from the powerful earthquake in southern Japan rose to at least eighteen on Wednesday, with several people still missing. Rescuers continued to search a collapsed shopping mall and a paper factory in Kumamoto prefecture, pulling some survivors from the rubble and from fires. The magnitude-7.1 quake struck the island of Kyushu in the early hours.
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Deadly Wildfires Sweep Across Southern Europe
Wildfires driven by a punishing heatwave are burning across southern Europe, killing two firefighters on the Greek island of Crete and forcing evacuations in France, Spain and Turkey. A blaze in south-western France was reported to have grown larger than the area of Paris, threatening to reignite a huge fire near Bordeaux. The European Commission urged stronger action on climate change.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Burnham Will Not Rule Out Tax Rises for Social Care
Andy Burnham refused to rule out tax rises to pay for an overhaul of adult social care, as he set out a three-point plan he said would end a system “as unfair as American healthcare”. The Prime Minister warned of “difficult decisions” ahead but insisted cross-party talks must come first. He also signalled that private firms would be largely shut out of the reformed service.
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Cyber-Attack Steals 607,000 Records from Education Department
Hackers stole roughly 607,000 records from the Department for Education, with sensitive data appearing on the dark web, it emerged on Wednesday. Reports said the haul included teachers’ names and phone numbers, raising fresh concerns about the security of government systems. Officials were assessing the scale of the breach.
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Drought Declared Across More Than Half of England
Drought was declared across more than half of England on Wednesday, after a run of heatwaves left rivers and reservoirs depleted. The Environment Agency’s move paves the way for tighter water restrictions, with more than 23 million people already under hosepipe bans. It came as temperatures peaked at around 35C on the hottest day of the fourth heatwave.
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Heatwave Peaks at 35C Amid Severe Wildfire Warnings
Britain sweltered through the peak of its fourth heatwave on Wednesday, with temperatures reaching around 35C under amber heat-health alerts across much of England. Fire chiefs warned of a “severe” wildfire risk after more than 200 blazes in the past fortnight, urging the public to take extra care. Health officials warned of a likely rise in deaths among the elderly and vulnerable.
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UK Lending Surges to Fastest Since 2018 Before Rate Call
British consumers borrowed at the fastest pace since 2018 last month, Bank of England figures showed, on the eve of a knife-edge decision on interest rates. Mortgage approvals also beat forecasts, even as lenders including Santander and Halifax raised their rates ahead of Thursday’s announcement. The Bank is still expected to hold Bank Rate at 3.75 per cent.
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Morning Briefing
What It Means For You
- Petrol: The collapse of the US–Iran truce has pushed oil back above $85 a barrel, up around 4 per cent, threatening to reverse the recent fall in petrol and diesel prices. Watch the pumps if the fighting escalates.
- Mortgages: The Bank of England sets interest rates on Thursday and is expected to hold, but the oil spike revives the inflation risk — and two more lenders have raised mortgage rates. Borrowing costs are likely to stay high.
- Heat: The heatwave peaks today at around 35C under an amber alert. Expect possible rail disruption, take care in the heat, and check on elderly or vulnerable neighbours.
GEO Geopolitical
US-Iran Truce Collapses as Iran Fires Missiles at US Forces
The four-day pause in the war between the United States and Iran collapsed overnight, after Iran fired a salvo of ballistic missiles at American forces in the Middle East in what US Central Command called a “surprise attack”. The missiles were intercepted with no casualties, the US said, and Jordan reported shooting down five more over its territory. In response, American and Saudi jets struck Iran-backed militias across eastern Iraq.
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Iran Rejects a Hormuz Deal and Oil Jumps
Iran rejected an Omani proposal to share control of the Strait of Hormuz equally, sending oil prices sharply higher as the truce unravelled. A deputy foreign minister said Tehran would manage shipping only on its own side of the vital waterway and would not accept an even split or allow a third country to clear mines. Brent crude jumped around 4 per cent, back above $85 a barrel.
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Japan Earthquake Kills at Least 13
The death toll from the powerful earthquake that struck southern Japan has risen to at least thirteen, with about fifty people taken to hospital. The magnitude-7.1 quake, which hit Kumamoto prefecture on the island of Kyushu, brought down part of a shopping mall — where a gas explosion killed two young women — and a chimney at a paper plant, trapping workers. A tsunami advisory was lifted after about two hours.
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US Senate Advances Sanctions on Russia and Iran
The US Senate has advanced a sweeping sanctions bill targeting Russia and Iran, named for the late Senator Lindsey Graham, whose funeral was held in Washington on Tuesday. A procedural vote cleared the way for the measure, which has more than sixty co-sponsors, though final passage and the House’s approval remain some way off. President Trump, who eulogised Graham, has backed extending the sanctions to Iran.
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Russia and Ukraine Trade Heavy Overnight Strikes
Russia launched more than 130 drones at Ukraine overnight, cutting power across six regions, while Ukraine struck logistics and industrial sites deep inside Russia, according to the Institute for the Study of War. Ukrainian air defences downed most of the drones, but sixteen got through, hitting nine locations. The exchanges came as Kyiv sought to translate this week’s talks with President Trump into firmer support.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Burnham Opens Cross-Party Talks on Fixing Social Care
Andy Burnham has invited the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats to cross-party talks on reforming England’s ailing adult social-care system, casting it as a national problem that has defeated successive governments. Ministers pointedly declined to rule out funding the reforms through a new levy on inheritances — quickly dubbed a “death tax” by critics — keeping the thorny question of how to pay for it firmly open.
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Bank of England to Decide as an Oil Spike Revives Inflation Fears
The Bank of England sets interest rates on Thursday against a suddenly murkier backdrop, after the collapse of the US–Iran truce sent oil prices spiking again and revived fears of stubborn inflation. Economists still expect the Bank to hold Bank Rate at 3.75 per cent, but with a hawkish tone, and two more lenders raised mortgage rates ahead of the decision. Brent crude jumped back above $85 a barrel.
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Inflation to Wipe £24bn Off Public Spending, Think-Tank Warns
Persistently high inflation will erode the real value of the government’s planned public spending by around £24bn, a leading think-tank has warned, tightening the squeeze on Andy Burnham’s government as it weighs costly commitments on welfare and social care. The National Institute of Economic and Social Research nudged up its growth forecast but cautioned that the country faces “very difficult trade-offs”, partly because of the energy shock from the Iran war.
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Heatwave Peaks at 35C as Wildfire Warnings Spread
Britain’s fourth heatwave of the summer peaks on Wednesday at around 35C, with amber heat-health alerts in force across much of England. Fire chiefs warned that the wildfire risk was now “severe” after more than 200 wildfire incidents in the past fortnight, urging the public to take care. Drought has been declared in the driest regions and more than 23 million people are under hosepipe bans.
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Labour Catches Reform in the Polls, Surveys Suggest
Labour has caught up with Reform UK in the opinion polls for the first time in months, surveys suggest, in a shift being credited to Andy Burnham’s arrival in Downing Street. The change — dubbed a “Burnham bounce” — has narrowed or erased a lead that Nigel Farage’s party had held for much of the year. Mr Burnham has also overtaken his rivals as the public’s preferred prime minister.
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Evening Briefing
What It Means For You
- Petrol: Oil has fallen again — Brent down to around $83 a barrel — as the US–Iran truce holds, which should feed through to cheaper petrol and diesel over the coming weeks.
- Benefits: The government has begun setting out its welfare changes, offering parents up to £4,500 when a child starts an apprenticeship while signalling tougher conditions for young claimants. More contentious changes to sickness and disability benefits are still to come.
- Heat: An amber heat alert is in force with temperatures set to hit 35C on Wednesday. Expect possible rail disruption, take care in the heat, and check on elderly or vulnerable neighbours.
GEO Geopolitical
Powerful Earthquake Strikes Southern Japan
A powerful magnitude-7.1 earthquake struck the Kumamoto region of southern Japan on Tuesday, damaging buildings and prompting a tsunami warning along the coast of Kyushu. A shopping mall was reported to have sustained serious damage, with people feared trapped inside; the number of casualties was not yet clear. Rescuers were searching the wreckage.
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Netanyahu and Trump Hold ‘Productive’ Talks on Iran
President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu held about ninety minutes of talks at the White House, their first meeting since the war with Iran, which both sides called productive. Iran dominated the agenda, alongside Lebanon and the prospect of normalising relations with Arab states. In a barbed aside beforehand, Mr Trump said he did not need Mr Netanyahu “for intel” on Iran’s nuclear sites.
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Zelensky Secures Air-Defence Pledges in Trump Talks
President Zelensky held just over an hour of talks with President Trump at the White House, which he called “good” and the administration described as “positive and productive”. The two advanced plans to produce American Patriot air-defence interceptors in Ukraine and moved towards a deal on jointly manufacturing drones. Mr Zelensky thanked Mr Trump for “all that we are doing together” to protect Ukrainian lives.
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Oil Sinks Further as Oman Floats a Hormuz Deal
Oil fell sharply again, with Brent crude dropping around 5 per cent to about $83 a barrel, as the pause in the US–Iran war held and mediators pressed for a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Oman was reported to have handed Tehran a proposal for joint control of the strait with voluntary transit fees. Markets shrugged off an overnight drone strike on a Saudi oil plant, judging the wider de-escalation more important.
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Wildfires and a Fresh Heatwave Grip France and Spain
France and Spain braced for a new heatwave that threatened to reignite wildfires, even as the huge blaze near Bordeaux was declared “stabilised” but not contained. France ordered a further 4,000 people to leave their homes, adding to more than 220,000 already evacuated across the region. In Spain, still under a national emergency, fires burned near Madrid and Valencia.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Burnham Unveils Welfare Package as Labour MPs Rebel
The government has set out the first elements of Andy Burnham’s welfare shake-up, pairing tougher conditions with new incentives to get young people into work. Parents on benefits will be offered up to £4,500 when their child starts an apprenticeship, while young people will be “expected” to engage with training or work. The plans, part of a drive to cut a rising bill, prompted an immediate rebellion among Labour MPs.
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French Warship Fires Shots Near a Tory MP in the Channel
A Conservative frontbencher, Chris Philp, accused the French navy of firing shots close to him as he filmed a report about small-boat crossings in the Channel on Tuesday. The BBC reported that a French warship had carried out a “shooting drill” during the interview, with some seventeen rounds fired; Mr Philp said “live rounds” had been discharged nearby. The British government said it was asking the French for an explanation.
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FTSE Climbs to a Five-Month High as Oil Slides
The FTSE 100 climbed to a five-month high, rising 0.8 per cent to around 10,871, as oil slid further on the pause in the US–Iran war and hopes of a deal over the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude fell about 5 per cent to roughly $83 a barrel, its lowest in weeks, dragging down the war-risk premium that had spiked prices towards $100. Sterling was steady and gilt yields eased below 5 per cent.
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Amber Alerts as the Fourth Heatwave Peaks Near 35C
Amber heat-health alerts are in force across much of England as the fourth heatwave of the summer takes hold, with temperatures forecast to peak near 35C on Wednesday. The UK Health Security Agency warned of a likely rise in deaths among the elderly and vulnerable, and fire chiefs urged the public to take care amid a high wildfire risk. Drought has been declared in the driest regions.
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Cairngorms Wildfire ‘Could Take Months’ to Put Out
The wildfire that has burned across the Cairngorms for nearly a fortnight could take months to fully extinguish, fire chiefs warned, even as they reported “encouraging” progress on Tuesday evening. The blaze, declared a major incident, has scorched some 25 square kilometres of the national park and forced evacuations. A large firefighting operation continued as a fresh heatwave threatened to worsen conditions.
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Morning Briefing
What It Means For You
- Petrol: Oil is near its lowest in weeks — Brent below $88 — as the US–Iran truce holds, which should ease pump prices. But an overnight drone strike on a major Saudi oil plant is a fresh risk to watch.
- NHS & Benefits: The Prime Minister is expected to set out his first welfare changes today, making some benefits conditional. Labour MPs are already warning against “punitive” cuts, so expect a political fight over what it means for claimants.
- Heat: The fourth heatwave of the summer has arrived, with amber health alerts and temperatures set to reach 35C by Wednesday. Take care in the heat and check on vulnerable neighbours.
GEO Geopolitical
Drones Strike Saudi Aramco’s Giant Abqaiq Oil Plant
Drones struck Saudi Aramco’s Abqaiq facility — the world’s largest crude-processing plant — overnight, in an attack that threatened to shatter the fragile lull in the Gulf war and reverse a slide in oil prices. Saudi Arabia blamed Iran-backed militias operating from Iraq and reserved the right to retaliate, while the Houthis were also said to have claimed strikes on Saudi oil sites. The extent of any damage was not independently confirmed.
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US-Iran Pause Holds a Fourth Day as Trump Warns Time Is Short
The pause in fighting between the United States and Iran held into a fourth day, as indirect, Oman-mediated talks continued over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump said the two sides were in “very deep” talks but warned that time was running out, threatening “very strong military action” if they failed. Iran insisted there were no direct negotiations, only messages passed through mediators.
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Netanyahu Meets Trump in Washington With Iran Top of the Agenda
Prime Minister Netanyahu of Israel arrived in Washington for a meeting with President Trump, their first since the war with Iran began, with Iran policy at the top of the agenda. Mr Netanyahu, who travelled under unusual secrecy amid reported Iranian threats, said he would discuss “all the issues, first and foremost Iran”. President Zelensky of Ukraine is due to meet Mr Trump the same day.
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France’s Megafire Stabilises as Spain’s Emergency Deepens
The huge wildfire that had threatened Bordeaux was “stabilised” but not yet contained, France’s interior minister said, after it burned an area roughly four times the size of Paris in under a week. More than 220,000 people have been evacuated across the region. In Spain, which remains under a national emergency, a man died near Valencia as fires burned on two fronts.
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Zelensky Meets Trump as the Senate Weighs Russia Sanctions
President Zelensky is due to meet President Trump at the White House, as the US Senate prepares to vote on sanctions that would impose steep tariffs on the biggest buyers of Russian oil and gas. The talks come after a night of Russian strikes in eastern Ukraine that killed at least seven people. Mr Trump is reported to want Iran added to the sanctions measure, a move Kyiv supports.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Burnham to Unveil His First Welfare Shake-Up as MPs Warn on Cuts
Andy Burnham is expected to set out his first major welfare changes on Tuesday, making some benefits conditional and tightening eligibility, as part of a drive to cut a rising bill. Labour MPs have already warned the Prime Minister against “punitive” cuts, setting up the first serious clash of his premiership. He has said Britain must “get really serious” about welfare while getting more young people into work.
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Burnham Names Phillipson Party Chair to Steady Labour
The Prime Minister has appointed Bridget Phillipson as chair of the Labour Party and brought figures from the party’s left into government, in a round of appointments read as an effort to shore up support before a difficult fight over welfare. The moves, made on Monday evening, aim to bind potential critics to his government. Ms Phillipson, the equalities minister, keeps her cabinet role alongside the party post.
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Britain’s Fourth Heatwave Arrives With Amber Alerts
Britain’s fourth heatwave of the summer has arrived, with amber heat-health alerts now in force across much of England and temperatures forecast to peak around 35C on Wednesday. The UK Health Security Agency warned of a likely rise in deaths among the elderly and vulnerable, while fire chiefs appealed to the public to take care amid a high wildfire risk. Drought has been declared in the driest regions.
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Cairngorms Fire Burns On as Another Scottish Village Flees
The Cairngorms wildfire burned into its thirteenth day, now covering some 25 square kilometres, though firefighters reported “encouraging” progress. Elsewhere in Scotland, nearly a hundred households were evacuated from the former mining village of Coalsnaughton, in Clackmannanshire, as a separate blaze took hold. The government said it would help those forced from their homes.
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FTSE Holds Near a Record as Oil Slips Again
The FTSE 100 held near a record after closing at a five-month high, as oil slipped again on the pause in the US–Iran war and the retreat of the war-risk premium. Brent crude fell below $88 a barrel, its lowest in weeks, though an overnight drone strike on a Saudi oil plant clouded the outlook. Sterling was steady and gilt yields eased to around 5 per cent.
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Evening Briefing
What It Means For You
- Petrol: Oil has fallen further — Brent down around 6 per cent to the high $80s — as the US–Iran truce holds and talks progress. If it lasts, petrol and diesel prices should ease over the coming weeks.
- NHS & Benefits: The Prime Minister is pressing ahead with a welfare crackdown, signalling that some benefits will become conditional — a change that could affect claimants, especially younger ones — while warning the NHS needs radical social-care reform.
- Heat: An amber heat-health alert has been issued as a fourth heatwave approaches, with temperatures forecast towards 35C this week. Check on elderly or vulnerable neighbours and take care in the heat.
GEO Geopolitical
US and Iran Report Progress in Talks as Trump Issues an Ultimatum
Mediators reported “significant” progress in indirect talks between the United States and Iran, as an American pause in air strikes held for a third day. President Trump called the negotiations “very deep” but warned they must move quickly, saying it would “either go fast or not at all” and threatening a return to “very strong military action” if they failed. Iran said it would keep its fire only while Washington held off.
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Netanyahu Flies to Washington for Talks With Trump
Prime Minister Netanyahu of Israel left for Washington under unusual secrecy for a meeting with President Trump, set for Tuesday, amid reported Iranian threats against Israeli officials. The talks are expected to range across Iran, the war in Gaza and the prospect of normalising relations with Saudi Arabia — areas where the two leaders are said to diverge. Mr Trump is due to meet President Zelensky the same day.
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Wildfires Reach the Edge of Bordeaux as Spain Declares an Emergency
Wildfires bore down on the outskirts of Bordeaux as more than 300,000 people were evacuated across France and Spain, prompting President Macron to convene an emergency meeting of his cabinet. Spain declared a national emergency and appealed for international firefighting help. Officials warned of “difficult hours ahead” as record heat showed no sign of relenting.
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Settlers Burn Mosques as Israel Raids Across the West Bank
Israeli settlers set fire to two mosques and scrawled “revenge” graffiti in the occupied West Bank, in rampages that accompanied a wide Israeli military operation across the territory. Troops raided some twenty towns, demolishing homes and detaining dozens, days after a deadly gun battle near Nablus. A group of former Israeli generals appealed to President Trump to press Mr Netanyahu to curb the settler violence.
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Ukrainian Drones Strike the Russian City of Belgorod
Ukrainian drones struck the Russian city of Belgorod, near the border, in a fresh long-range attack, footage of the strike showed. It came as Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, met his Iranian counterpart to discuss the disputed strike on an Iranian ship in the Caspian Sea. The two wars — in Ukraine and the Gulf — are increasingly entangled.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Britain Arms Ukraine’s Drones as Zelensky Visits Burnham
Britain will supply Ukraine with “Stone Cloak” electronic-warfare devices to shield its attack drones from Russian air defences, the government announced as President Zelensky became the first foreign leader to visit Andy Burnham as Prime Minister. The two met aboard a Royal Navy aircraft carrier at Portsmouth, where Mr Burnham told his guest: “I am with you 100 per cent.” They agreed to deepen defence-industrial cooperation.
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FTSE Closes at a Five-Month High as Oil Tumbles
The FTSE 100 climbed to its highest close in five months as oil tumbled on the pause in the US–Iran war, easing fears of an inflationary energy shock. London’s blue-chip index rose 0.4 per cent to around 10,780, buoyed by lower energy costs, while Brent crude fell some 6 per cent into the high $80s. The pound was steady and gilt yields eased.
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Burnham’s Welfare Crackdown Sets Up a Clash With Labour MPs
Andy Burnham’s drive to cut the welfare bill hardened into a firm commitment on Monday, with the Prime Minister signalling that some benefits will be made conditional and youth payments tightened. Having warned that morning that the NHS “will collapse” without social-care reform, he said Britain must “get really serious” about welfare. The plans set up a likely confrontation with Labour MPs.
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Minister Defends Refusing Army Help for the Cairngorms Fire
A Scottish government minister defended the decision not to call in military help for the Cairngorms wildfire, now in its thirteenth day, insisting emergency services had the resources they needed. It came after the Ministry of Defence offered helicopters and troops but acknowledged that the armed forces have no water-bombing aircraft suited to fighting major blazes. Firefighters reported continued progress.
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Amber Heat Alert Issued as a Fourth Heatwave Nears
Health authorities have issued an amber heat-health alert as Britain braces for its fourth heatwave of the summer, with temperatures forecast to reach 33 to 35C this week. The UK Health Security Agency warned of a likely rise in deaths among the elderly and vulnerable. Drought has been declared in the driest regions, deepening the wildfire risk.
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Morning Briefing
What It Means For You
- Petrol: Oil has fallen sharply — Brent down around 5 per cent to roughly $91 — after the US and Iran paused their fighting over the weekend. If the truce holds, the drop should ease the recent pressure on petrol and inflation.
- NHS & Care: The Prime Minister has warned the NHS “will collapse” without social-care reform and signalled a crackdown on sickness benefits — changes that could reshape care and welfare for millions. No timeline was given.
- Rates & Mortgages: The Bank of England is expected to hold interest rates on Thursday; the fall in oil eases the case for a rise, welcome for borrowers, though inflation risks from the Gulf war remain.
GEO Geopolitical
US Pause on Iran Holds as Tehran Warns of a Wider War
The United States held off from striking Iran for a second consecutive day, and Tehran suspended its retaliation, extending a fragile pause in a two-week war that has convulsed the Gulf. Oil tumbled around 5 per cent on renewed hopes of negotiations. Yet Iran’s army warned the conflict would “expand geographically” if Washington resumed its bombing, accusing Israel of trying to drag the United States back in.
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Israel Approves a Limited International Force for Gaza
Israel’s cabinet has approved the limited deployment of an international stabilisation force in Gaza, endorsing the territory’s demilitarisation and a Palestinian transitional administration — a notable shift in policy. The move came as Prime Minister Netanyahu prepared to fly to Washington to meet President Trump. It marks a step towards the post-war governance envisaged under the US-brokered ceasefire.
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Russia and Ukraine Trade Overnight Strikes, Killing Ten
At least ten people were killed as Russia and Ukraine exchanged strikes overnight. Ukrainian officials said Russian drones killed six, including a child, at a supermarket in Chernihiv, while Moscow said Ukrainian strikes had killed four on its side. Ukraine also struck Russian logistics targets deep behind the front, part of its sustained campaign against the enemy’s war economy.
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Trump Shares Fake AI Images of Strikes and Denies an Ammo Shortage
President Trump posted artificial-intelligence-generated images on social media overnight depicting American jets destroying an Iranian oil terminal, captioning one seized-tanker picture “It’s Our Oil Tanker now!”. Separately, he denied to the Wall Street Journal that a shortage of munitions was constraining the US campaign against Iran. The posts came during the pause in actual strikes.
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Ebola Surges in DR Congo, Killing More Than 1,400
An Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo has surged past 3,200 cases and 1,405 deaths, health authorities say, with around a thousand new infections in the past ten days. The outbreak, the country’s seventeenth, has spread across five provinces, with the eastern Ituri region accounting for the bulk of cases. There is no approved vaccine or treatment for the strain involved.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Burnham Warns the NHS Will Collapse and Signals a Welfare Crackdown
The Prime Minister has warned that the NHS “will collapse” without radical reform of social care, pledging to spend his “political capital” on fixing it, in a set-piece BBC interview. Andy Burnham also signalled a crackdown on sickness and incapacity benefits, saying Britain must “get really serious” about cutting a rising welfare bill. He gave no timeline for the social-care overhaul.
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Zelensky Becomes the First Leader to Visit Burnham as PM
President Zelensky of Ukraine is to become the first foreign leader to visit Andy Burnham since he became Prime Minister, meeting him at a British naval base. Mr Burnham pledged “continued support” for Kyiv, signalling that Britain’s backing will endure under his government. The visit underscores Ukraine’s place at the top of the Prime Minister’s foreign-policy in-tray.
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Oil Slides and the FTSE Rallies as the Iran Truce Holds
Oil fell sharply and London shares were set to rally as the pause in the US–Iran war took hold, unwinding the war-risk premium that had driven crude towards $100. Brent dropped around 5 per cent to roughly $91 a barrel, and the pound firmed above $1.33. The retreat eases the inflationary threat that had loomed over the Bank of England ahead of its rate decision on Thursday.
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Cairngorms Fire Burns Into Day 13 as a Fourth Heatwave Looms
The wildfire in the Cairngorms burned into its thirteenth day, with firefighters reporting “welcome progress” but warning that a fourth heatwave forecast for this week could raise the risk of fresh blazes. The Ministry of Defence has offered helicopters and troops to support the effort. Temperatures are expected to climb towards 35C in the coming days.
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Bev Craig Leads the Race to Succeed Burnham in Manchester
Labour’s Bev Craig, the leader of Manchester City Council, has emerged as the frontrunner to succeed Andy Burnham as mayor of Greater Manchester, the post he vacated on becoming Prime Minister. A by-election for the high-profile mayoralty is expected in the autumn. Whoever wins inherits a role Mr Burnham used to build a national platform.
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Evening Briefing
What It Means For You
- Petrol & Prices: The US pause on Iran strikes held and talks are under way, easing some pressure on oil — but the Gulf war is not over, and a new front has opened with Iran threatening Ukraine. Markets reopen Monday; pump prices remain high.
- Travel: Wildfires have now displaced more than 360,000 people across France and Spain. If you are holidaying there, check official advice, follow evacuation orders, and expect further extreme heat.
- Your Region: The Prime Minister has floated electoral reform and giving city mayors a share of income tax — part of a push to shift power and money out of Westminster. Watch how it might affect your area.
GEO Geopolitical
Iran Threatens Ukraine After a Strike on a Caspian Ship
Iran has warned Ukraine that an attack on an Iranian commercial vessel in the Caspian Sea “cannot go unanswered”, opening a startling new front in the widening Gulf war. The foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, summoned Ukraine’s envoy and accused Kyiv of acting “at Israel’s behest” — a claim Ukraine did not confirm and which could not be independently verified. Tehran promised a response.
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US Pause Holds as Oman Brokers Talks on Hormuz
The American pause in strikes on Iran held through Sunday, as Oman-mediated talks on reopening the Strait of Hormuz were reported to be making progress. A senior Iranian source said Tehran would hold its fire so long as Washington did the same, in an unofficial halt-for-halt. President Trump’s team said he was giving diplomacy “some space”, though American forces continued to mass in the region.
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Wildfires Displace More Than 360,000 in France and Spain
The number of people driven from their homes by wildfires in France and Spain has passed 360,000, as fires burned beyond containment in a fourth week of extreme heat. France, which has evacuated some 250,000 people, has mounted what officials call its largest peacetime evacuation, while Spain, under a national emergency, has moved more than 116,000 from around Madrid and beyond. Temperatures have topped 40C.
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Israeli Strike Kills a Senior Hamas Officer in Gaza
An Israeli air strike on a vehicle in Gaza killed two Hamas security officials on Sunday, among them Brigadier General Abdel-Nasser al-Maqadma, described as the head of Hamas’s police in the north of the territory. The Israeli military said several of those killed had taken part in the 7 October 2023 attacks. It was the latest strike to test a fragile ceasefire.
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Car Rams the Berlin Pride Parade; Suspect Shot Dead
A car was driven into the Berlin Pride parade on Sunday, and police shot dead the suspect, a 21-year-old man. The motive was not immediately clear, and the number of people hurt was still being established as an investigation began. The attack cast a pall over one of Europe’s largest celebrations of LGBT rights.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Burnham Signals Electoral Reform and Tax Powers for Mayors
Andy Burnham has signalled a shift towards electoral reform, saying compulsory voting was “on the table”, and floated giving England’s city mayors a share of income-tax revenue, in interviews marking his first weekend as Prime Minister. The proposals, trailed after his appearance on the BBC, point to a devolutionary, reforming instinct as he seeks to define his government.
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RAF Chinooks Offered as the Cairngorms Fire Enters Day 12
The Ministry of Defence has offered Chinook helicopters and troops to help fight the Cairngorms wildfire as it entered its twelfth day, after Scotland’s First Minister, John Swinney, requested military support. Firefighters reported “welcome progress” and evacuated residents of Nethy Bridge were allowed home, but crews cautioned that the blaze was not yet under control.
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Teenager Charged Over the Record Channel Crossing
A teenager has been charged in connection with the record small-boat crossing of the Channel, in which 165 migrants reached Dover in a single vessel last week. Prosecutors accuse the Sudanese youth of piloting the overcrowded “mega dinghy”. It is the first charge arising from the record arrival, which has intensified pressure on the government over migration.
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North-South Life-Expectancy Gap Widens, Study Finds
The gap in life expectancy between the north and south of England has widened, according to research reported on Sunday, underscoring the entrenched regional inequalities Andy Burnham has pledged to tackle. People in the poorest northern areas can expect to live several years fewer than those in the affluent south, with the divide having grown over the past decade.
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Miliband Puts Climate at the Centre of Foreign Policy
Ed Miliband has argued that climate change and global development should sit “at the heart” of Britain’s foreign policy, in an intervention setting out priorities for the Burnham government’s approach to the world. The remarks signal continuity in Labour’s green agenda even as ministers weigh politically fraught decisions on North Sea oil.
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Morning Briefing
What It Means For You
- Travel: If you are holidaying in France or Spain, wildfires have forced hundreds of thousands from their homes and closed roads and rail. Check official advice before travelling and follow evacuation instructions.
- Petrol: The US has paused its strikes on Iran and talks are under way, easing some pressure on oil, but the Gulf war is not over. With markets closed for the weekend, any price effect will show on Monday; pump prices remain high.
- Heat & Water: A fourth heatwave is forecast next week, with temperatures up to 35C and renewed wildfire risk, while more than 23 million people remain under hosepipe bans. Plan for the heat and check on vulnerable neighbours.
GEO Geopolitical
Settlers Torch Two Mosques in an Overnight West Bank Rampage
Israeli settlers set fire to two mosques in the occupied West Bank overnight and daubed “revenge” graffiti on their walls, in a fresh wave of rampages that also saw Palestinians attacked and cars torched. The violence followed a deadly gun battle near Nablus on Friday, and the Israeli military said its troops had arrived too late to arrest those responsible. Dozens of Palestinians were detained in overnight raids.
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Typhoon Noul Forces Mass Evacuations in Southern China
Typhoon Noul battered southern China and Hong Kong overnight, bringing fierce winds and torrential rain and forcing the evacuation of more than 700,000 people. Hundreds of flights were cancelled and coastal defences tested as the storm made landfall. Authorities across Guangdong and neighbouring provinces suspended work, schools and transport.
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US Pause on Iran Strikes Holds as Diplomacy Gains Space
The United States refrained from striking Iran for a second night, sustaining a pause that has opened the first real space for diplomacy in a fortnight of war. Iran again reported “a peaceful night”, and both sides indicated they were exchanging messages through mediators. President Trump’s envoy to the United Nations said the President was giving peace talks “some space”.
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Hundreds of Thousands Flee Wildfires in France and Spain
Wildfires raging across France and Spain have driven hundreds of thousands of people from their homes, as a punishing heatwave pushes temperatures above 40C. France has mounted what may be its largest peacetime evacuation, and Spain has declared a national emergency, with fires burning beyond containment in places. Water-bombing aircraft have been drawn from across the European Union.
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Romania Downs a Russian Drone and Summons Moscow’s Envoy
Romania scrambled a fighter jet to shoot down a suspected Russian drone that had entered its airspace, and summoned Moscow’s ambassador in protest, in the latest spillover of the Ukraine war onto Nato territory. It was said to be the third such incursion into Romanian skies. The alliance has repeatedly complained of Russian drones straying across its eastern frontier.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Burnham Vows to Stand Up to Trump and Rules Out Early Poll
In his first major broadcast interview as Prime Minister, Andy Burnham said he was prepared to “stand up to President Trump” and to disagree with him publicly “if it’s right for Britain”, while declining to say he trusted the American president. Speaking on the BBC’s Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg, Mr Burnham also ruled out calling an early general election, saying he did not believe the public wanted one.
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Cairngorms Residents Return as Crews Gain Ground on the Fire
Residents evacuated from the village of Nethy Bridge were allowed to return home overnight as firefighters reported “welcome progress” against the large wildfire in the Cairngorms, which was declared a major incident on Saturday. Scotland’s First Minister, John Swinney, who called it a “very serious situation”, has asked the UK government for military support. Crews warned the blaze was not yet under control.
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Met Police Investigate Reform Donations Linked to Tice
The Metropolitan Police have opened an investigation into donations to Reform UK from a company controlled by Richard Tice, a senior figure in the party, following reporting by the Guardian. The inquiry adds to scrutiny of the party’s funding as it rides high in the polls. Mr Tice dismissed the coverage as a “hit piece”.
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Britain Braces for a Fourth Heatwave Next Week
Britain is forecast to face its fourth heatwave of the summer next week, with temperatures expected to climb to between 33 and 35C, after a cooler, showery lull this weekend. The Met Office warned of renewed wildfire risk and heat-health concerns, with alerts likely for parts of England. It caps a summer of repeated extremes.
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Channel Crossings Continue Through the Weekend
Small-boat crossings of the Channel continued over the weekend, days after a record 165 migrants arrived in a single vessel, keeping migration at the top of the new government’s in-tray. The crossings, the first sustained arrivals since Andy Burnham became Prime Minister, underline the scale of a challenge he has promised to tackle. Ministers face mounting pressure to show results.
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Evening Briefing
What It Means For You
- Heat & Fire: Britain faces a fourth heatwave next week, with temperatures near 35C and fresh heat-health alerts, as wildfires flare from the Cairngorms to southern Europe. Check on elderly or vulnerable neighbours and heed local warnings.
- Petrol: Yemen’s Houthis say they have struck Saudi oil sites, and the US–Iran war continues, keeping a risk premium on oil. With markets closed for the weekend, any price effect will show on Monday; pump prices remain elevated.
- Travel: If you are holidaying in France or Spain, wildfires have forced more than 267,000 people from their homes and closed roads and rail. Check official advice before travelling and follow evacuation instructions.
GEO Geopolitical
Wildfires Force More Than 267,000 to Flee France and Spain
Wildfires have forced more than 267,000 people from their homes across France and Spain, in what may be France’s largest peacetime evacuation, as a relentless heatwave and record blazes overwhelm firefighters. Around 197,000 have fled in France and some 70,000 near Madrid, with fires burning beyond containment in places. No deaths have been reported, though dozens of French firefighters have been injured.
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Houthis Say They Struck Saudi Aramco Oil Sites
Yemen’s Houthis said they had fired dozens of missiles and drones at Saudi Aramco oil facilities in Jizan and Yanbu on Saturday, opening a new front against the kingdom in the widening Gulf war. Civil-defence sirens sounded in both provinces and smoke was reported over the Jizan refinery, though Saudi authorities gave an all-clear and Aramco did not confirm any damage. The Iran-aligned group has attacked Saudi and Red Sea shipping for weeks.
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US Halts Its Strikes on Iran as Both Sides Signal Talks
The United States paused its bombing of Iran overnight for the first time in nearly two weeks, and both sides signalled a willingness to negotiate. Iran reported “a peaceful night” after thirteen consecutive nights of American strikes, while President Trump said Tehran was “talking to us right now” and that he was “willing to listen”. Messages have reportedly been exchanged through mediators.
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At Least Eleven Killed as Russia and Ukraine Trade Strikes
At least eleven people were killed in strikes across Ukraine and Russian-held territory on Saturday. Russian-appointed officials said a Ukrainian strike on a holiday camp at Kyrylivka, on the occupied Azov coast, had killed eight people, including two children, and wounded fourteen. In the Ukrainian region of Sumy, three delivery couriers were killed by a Russian drone. Romania scrambled a fighter jet to down a drone that breached its airspace.
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Israeli Settlers Set Up New Outposts After Deadly Clash
Israeli settlers established four new outposts in the occupied West Bank overnight, a day after a gun battle near the village of Tell killed two Israeli soldiers and four Palestinians. The Israeli military said it had arrested more than seventy wanted Palestinians in raids across the territory, while groups of settlers entered Tell for what they called a “hike”. It was among the most turbulent days in the West Bank in weeks.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Cairngorms Wildfire Declared a Major Incident as a Village Flees
A large wildfire in the Cairngorms National Park was declared a major incident by police on Saturday, forcing the evacuation of hundreds of residents and an entire village near Nethy Bridge. Fire crews battled the blaze into the afternoon amid tinder-dry conditions and a summer of record heat. Scotland’s First Minister, John Swinney, called it a “very serious situation”.
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Twenty Firefighters in Hospital After an Essex Explosion
Twenty firefighters were taken to hospital after a large explosion and blaze at an industrial site in Essex, near Rettendon, believed to have involved fertiliser. More than a hundred firefighters were deployed and three fire engines were destroyed, though no deaths have been reported. Residents nearby were evacuated as crews brought the fire under control.
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Burnham Rules Out a Snap Election and an Independence Vote
Andy Burnham used his first weekend as Prime Minister to rule out both a snap general election and a second Scottish independence referendum, vowing to govern to Labour’s 2024 manifesto. On a visit to Scotland, where he met the First Minister, John Swinney, Mr Burnham pledged to “tackle the cost-of-living crisis faced by Scots and give them hope”. He is due to be interviewed on television on Sunday.
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Record 165 Migrants Cross the Channel in a Single Boat
A record 165 migrants crossed the Channel to Dover in a single vessel, a so-called “mega dinghy”, as small-boat arrivals continued into the weekend — the first crossings since Andy Burnham became Prime Minister. The figure, the highest recorded for one boat, underscores the scale of the challenge confronting the new government, which has made stopping the crossings a priority.
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Britain Braces for a Fourth Heatwave as Alerts Widen
Britain is bracing for its fourth heatwave of the summer next week, with temperatures forecast to peak around 35C. Fresh heat-health alerts have been issued for parts of England, warning of risks to the elderly and vulnerable, as wildfires flare from the Cairngorms to the south. The heat compounds a summer that has already brought the driest spring on record and widespread hosepipe bans.
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Morning Briefing
What It Means For You
- Petrol & Energy: Oil eased back below $100 a barrel on Friday, with Brent around $96, relieving the immediate pump-price scare — but the war-risk premium could return quickly if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is hit again.
- Interest Rates: The Bank of England sets rates on Thursday. A hold at 3.75 per cent is widely expected, though the oil spike has led markets to price in two rate rises by March 2027, which would bear on mortgages and savings.
- Water Bills: Thames Water, which serves around 16 million customers, has asked the regulator for another increase in household charges — a fresh squeeze as ministers weigh the future of the debt-laden sector.
GEO Geopolitical
Trump Rules Out Iran Deal ‘For Now’ as Strikes Continue
President Trump dampened hopes of an early truce with Iran overnight, telling the White House Correspondents’ dinner “I don’t think it’s time yet” for a deal, though he was “willing to listen”. His remarks came as US Central Command completed a further night of strikes and Mr Netanyahu’s office confirmed the Israeli premier would visit the White House on Tuesday, his seventh trip of Mr Trump’s second term.
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US Fires on Tanker Running Iran’s Hormuz Blockade
American forces disabled a tanker in the Gulf after its crew repeatedly tried to breach Iran’s blockade of a port, US Central Command said. “We disabled the tanker after the crew attempted to run the blockade at least four times prior,” said Navy Captain Tim Hawkins, adding that the ship was stopped by firing into its engine room after repeated warnings. The vessel was not named.
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Wildfires Force 166,000 to Flee Across France and Spain
More than 166,000 people have been evacuated across France and Spain as wildfires rage near Bordeaux and Madrid, with Spain declaring a national emergency and President Macron ordering the army to help contain what officials called the worst fire France has known. Around 141,000 have fled in south-western France and some 25,000 in the Madrid region, where merged blazes near Madrid and Ávila displaced tens of thousands.
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Russia and Ukraine Trade Strikes as Blackout Hits Chernihiv
A Russian attack on an energy facility around the northern Ukrainian city of Chernihiv cut power to about 150,000 people, as the two sides pressed a relentless exchange of long-range strikes. It followed a rare daytime Russian ballistic strike on a defence-industry gathering in the Kyiv region that killed at least ten and wounded more than a hundred. Kyiv struck back at a missile-components plant in the Russian city of Kirov.
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West Bank Settler Rampages Follow Deadly Nablus Clashes
Israeli settlers rampaged through villages across the occupied West Bank on Friday and into Saturday, according to reports, hours after four Palestinians and two Israeli soldiers were killed in a gun battle near Nablus that prompted a wide Israeli operation. Some 86 Palestinians have been killed across the territory this year as violence surges alongside the wider regional war.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Trump Cheers Burnham’s North Sea Drilling Amid Green Backlash
President Trump has seized on reports that Andy Burnham may fast-track North Sea oil and gas, declaring that people in Aberdeen were “dancing in the streets” and that drilling would turn Britain “from a Poverty Stricken Disaster, to one of the Richest Countries anywhere in the World”. Downing Street has not confirmed any change of policy, and the decision on the Rosebank and Jackdaw fields rests with the Energy Secretary, Miatta Fahnbulleh.
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‘Burnham Bounce’ Narrows Reform’s Lead in the Polls
Labour has closed much of the gap on Reform UK since Andy Burnham entered Downing Street, according to a run of recent surveys. Survation’s final poll under Sir Keir Starmer put the two parties level on 24 per cent each, Labour’s largest single jump since the 2024 election. Ipsos found Mr Burnham favoured as prime minister by 30 per cent against 16 per cent for Nigel Farage.
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Bank of England Set to Hold Rates on Thursday
The Bank of England is widely expected to leave interest rates at 3.75 per cent when the Monetary Policy Committee reports on Thursday, with markets putting the probability of no change at around 86 per cent. The decision comes after a bruising week for oil and bonds, though firmer retail sales and business-activity data late in the week steadied sterling and gilts.
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Thames Water Seeks Fresh Bill Rise as Burnham Vows Reform
Thames Water has applied to the regulator, Ofwat, to raise household charges again, presenting an early dilemma for a prime minister who has promised to ease the cost of living and overhaul the water sector. Britain’s largest water company, serving around 16 million customers, has been struggling under a heavy debt burden and repeated questions over its finances.
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Small-Boat Arrivals Remain Burnham’s Toughest Political Test
Immigration remains the sharpest challenge facing the new government, and the issue on which Reform UK has built its lead. Around 36,000 people arrived by small boat in the year to the end of May, about 13 per cent fewer than a year earlier, according to House of Commons Library figures, but the crossings continue to dominate the political argument through the summer.
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Evening Briefing
What It Means For You
- Petrol & Prices: Oil fell back below $100 a barrel on Friday, easing the immediate inflation scare, though pump prices remain elevated after this week’s spike. The Bank of England sets interest rates on 30 July.
- Your Money: Reassuring UK data — a jump in retail sales and stronger business activity — lifted the FTSE and steadied borrowing costs, with markets still expecting the Bank to hold rates next week.
- Pubs & the High Street: Business rates for pubs, clubs and music venues will be cut by 20 per cent, worth around £100m, funded by a planned levy on large online retailers — part of the government’s cost-of-living push.
GEO Geopolitical
Spain Declares Emergency as Wildfires Force Tens of Thousands to Flee
Spain declared a national emergency on Friday as wildfires raged across the country, while on the French Atlantic coast fresh mass evacuations drove holidaymakers from their homes — some fleeing by boat. Together the fires in Spain and south-western France have forced tens of thousands to flee, with both governments requesting help from fellow European Union states. Temperatures reached 44C in southern Spain.
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Iran Strikes US Gulf Bases as Trump Weighs a Bigger Attack
Iran launched retaliatory strikes on Friday against American military targets in the Gulf, including the Al-Azraq air base in Jordan, as Bahrain and Kuwait reported intercepting Iranian missiles. President Trump said he was “close to making a decision” on “a massive attack… bigger than ever before”, but had not ordered one. It followed a thirteenth night of American strikes and Iran’s rejection of a US ceasefire proposal.
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Oil Retreats Below $100 as the War-Risk Premium Unwinds
Brent crude fell back below $100 a barrel on Friday, sliding around 4 per cent to roughly $96, as traders unwound part of the war-risk premium that had driven it above $100 on Thursday for the first time in two months. The pullback offered a measure of relief, though oil remained on course for a weekly gain of about 10 per cent as the US–Iran war ground on.
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Russian Strike on a Kyiv Event Kills 10 as Both Sides Trade Blows
A Russian missile strike on a defence-industry gathering in the Kyiv region killed at least ten people and wounded more than a hundred on Friday, Ukrainian officials said, in one of the deadliest attacks of recent weeks. Ukraine struck back deep inside Russia, hitting an arms factory in Kirov, some 1,200km from the border, killing six. It was a bloody day on a front that has barely moved.
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Six Killed in West Bank Gunfight as Israel Raids Nablus
Six people were killed in a gun battle in the occupied West Bank on Friday, among them four Palestinians and two Israeli soldiers, after which Israel launched a wide operation around Nablus. The clash, near the village of Tell, was followed by reprisal raids by Israeli settlers that wounded seven Palestinians, according to local sources. It marks one of the deadliest days in the territory in weeks.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Burnham Launches ‘Number 10 North’ in Manchester
Andy Burnham marked the end of his first week as Prime Minister by launching “Number 10 North”, relocating devolution and local-growth policy functions to Manchester. Working from an interim headquarters in the city, Mr Burnham called it “the nerve centre of a rewired Britain” and “not a gimmick”, insisting the shift would bring government closer to the regions. He described it as “the best day of my life”.
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Burnham Cuts Business Rates for Pubs and Music Venues
The government has announced a 20 per cent cut in business rates for pubs, clubs and grassroots music venues across England, a package worth around £100m, in its latest high-street and cost-of-living measure. Ministers indicated the relief would be funded by a new levy on large online retailers, framing it as shifting the burden from struggling hospitality to “big ecommerce”. The trade gave the move a cautious welcome.
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FTSE Rebounds and Gilts Steady as the Oil Panic Fades
London’s FTSE 100 recovered on Friday, rising around 0.7 per cent to about 10,710, as oil’s retreat from $100 eased the previous day’s inflation scare. Banks led the gains, with HSBC among the risers, while government bond yields dipped and the pound firmed towards $1.334. The rebound clawed back much of Thursday’s sharp, oil-driven sell-off.
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Business Activity Hits a Three-Month High, Survey Shows
British private-sector activity grew at its fastest pace in three months in July, a closely watched business survey indicated on Friday, a further sign that the economy is holding up. The S&P Global flash survey pointed to the first expansion in three months, with firms reporting easing cost pressures, helped by summer spending and the warm weather. The pound firmed on the improved picture.
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Ministers Pressed to Award £2.4bn Satellite Deal to Airbus
The government is under pressure to award a £2.4bn military satellite contract to Airbus rather than an American rival, in a decision that pits industrial sovereignty against the transatlantic relationship, according to reporting on Friday. Supporters of the European bid argue that Britain’s secure communications should not depend on a foreign supplier, particularly amid strains with Washington over defence and energy.
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Morning Briefing
What It Means For You
- Petrol & Inflation: Oil is holding near $100 a barrel as the US–Iran war grinds on, keeping petrol close to 156p a litre and threatening to push inflation back above 3 per cent. The Bank of England sets interest rates on 30 July.
- Your Money: Retail sales rose 1 per cent in June as warm weather boosted spending — a rare bright spot — but UK borrowing costs hit a two-month high, with markets now betting on rate rises rather than cuts, which would lift mortgage costs.
- NHS & Heat: Resident doctors begin a five-day strike on Saturday, risking cancelled operations and appointments, while an amber heat alert covers much of England this weekend — check on elderly or vulnerable neighbours.
GEO Geopolitical
US Strikes Iran for a 13th Night as Trump Vows More Pain
American forces bombed Iran for a thirteenth consecutive night, US Central Command said, striking command centres, drone sites and coastal targets around Bandar Abbas and Khuzestan. Iranian authorities said at least four people were killed and five injured in an overnight strike near Ahvaz. President Trump signalled no let-up, telling Axios that Tehran “haven’t received enough pain yet” and that he was weighing “a massive attack… bigger than ever before”.
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Oil Holds Near $100 as the Gulf War Grinds On
Brent crude held close to $100 a barrel on Friday, easing only slightly after surging past that level on Thursday for the first time since May, and remains up around 13 per cent on the week. The retreat was modest: prices stay elevated as Houthi attacks on Red Sea tankers and nightly American strikes on Iran keep a hefty risk premium on oil. US pump prices have climbed above $4 a gallon.
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Wildfires and Record Heat Grip Spain and France
Wildfires continued to rage across Spain and France on Friday as a punishing heatwave pushed temperatures towards 44C, with thousands evacuated. A blaze in Spain’s Guadalajara region, one of the country’s largest on record, has consumed some 32,000 hectares north of Madrid, emptying dozens of hamlets, while fires in south-western France have forced holidaymakers from coastal campsites and killed two firefighters this week.
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Kremlin Lays Ground for Mobilisation, War Institute Says
Russia is preparing the ground for a fresh wave of mobilisation and bracing for possible domestic unrest, the Institute for the Study of War has assessed, even as President Putin plays down a worsening fuel-shortage crisis. The Washington think tank said the Kremlin was setting the political conditions to call up more troops, a sign Moscow expects a long war despite renewed diplomatic contacts. Ukraine, meanwhile, has continued a shake-up of its military command.
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Israel Strikes Gaza After Fresh Displacement Orders
Israel bombarded parts of Gaza on Friday after issuing new displacement orders, killing at least two Palestinians, according to medical sources cited by Al Jazeera, in the latest strain on a US-brokered ceasefire in place since October. Strikes hit homes in the Bureij and Jabalia refugee camps and the Zeitoun and Tal al-Hawa districts of Gaza City. The truce has held only loosely, with near-daily Israeli operations.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Retail Sales Jump in June as the Warm Weather Lifts Spending
British retail sales rose by 1 per cent in June, official figures showed on Friday, comfortably beating forecasts as the second-warmest June on record drew shoppers out and summer promotions lifted demand. The Office for National Statistics said sales volumes were 4.2 per cent higher than a year earlier, led by clothing and online retailers. It is a rare piece of good economic news for Andy Burnham’s government amid the oil-price squeeze.
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Gilt Yields Hit a Two-Month High as Markets Bet on Rate Rises
British borrowing costs pushed higher again on Friday, with the ten-year gilt yield reaching around 5.1 per cent, a two-month high, as the oil-driven inflation scare prompted traders to bet on interest-rate rises rather than cuts. The reversal, days before the Bank of England’s decision on 30 July, threatens to raise the cost of Mr Burnham’s spending plans and to feed through to mortgages. Sterling slipped towards $1.33.
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Resident Doctors Poised to Strike as Last-Ditch Talks Continue
Tens of thousands of resident doctors in England are due to begin a five-day strike at 7am on Saturday, even as the British Medical Association and the Health Secretary, Wes Streeting, report “constructive” but unresolved talks. The government has offered a 5.4 per cent rise for this year; the union says pay has fallen roughly a fifth in real terms since 2008. Hospital leaders warn of widespread cancellations.
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Amber Heat Alert Covers Much of England This Weekend
An amber heat-health alert came into force across much of southern and central England on Friday morning and will run until Sunday, as a fresh heatwave builds. Issued by the UK Health Security Agency with the Met Office, the alert covers six regions and warns of a likely rise in deaths among the elderly and vulnerable. It is the same warm spell credited with lifting June’s retail sales.
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Labour Narrows Reform’s Lead as Burnham Settles In
Labour has closed much of the gap on Reform UK since Andy Burnham became Prime Minister, polling suggests, though Reform still holds a narrow lead. A YouGov survey put Reform on 23 per cent, the Conservatives on 21 and Labour on 20 — the closest the parties have been in a year. Mr Burnham is also the public’s preferred prime minister, according to Ipsos, ahead of Nigel Farage and Kemi Badenoch.
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Evening Briefing
What It Means For You
- Petrol & Bills: Oil has broken $100 a barrel for the first time since May, driving petrol up around 5p to 155.6p a litre and diesel up 8p, according to the RAC. Pump and energy costs look set to rise further, threatening the recent fall in inflation.
- Savings & Mortgages: UK borrowing costs hit a two-month high, with thirty-year gilt yields near 5.75 per cent, even as the Chancellor pledged fiscal discipline. Higher yields feed through to mortgage and loan rates. The Bank of England decides on rates on 30 July.
- NHS & Appointments: Resident doctors will strike for five days from 25 July, risking cancellations of operations and appointments even as waiting lists fall to a two-year low. Check before travelling for planned hospital care.
GEO Geopolitical
Trump Threatens a ‘Massive’ Strike on Iran as Oil Tops $100
President Trump has threatened “major military punishment” against Iran and told Axios he is weighing “a massive attack… bigger than ever before”, after Yemen’s Houthis struck a second Saudi oil tanker in the Red Sea. Brent crude vaulted above $100 a barrel for the first time since May, settling around $100.70 — up some 7 per cent on the day and roughly 30 per cent across July. The Saudi tanker Layla was hit hours after the Encelia.
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US Presses Its Strikes as Iran Claims Hits on Gulf Bases
American forces pressed on with their bombing of Iran, with US Central Command reporting fresh strikes on “maritime capabilities, missile and drone storage facilities, coastal surveillance sites and air-defence assets”. Two people were killed and eleven injured at Shalamcheh, near the Iraqi border, and a power substation beside the Bushehr nuclear plant was hit, causing outages. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard claimed retaliatory strikes on American bases in Kuwait and Jordan.
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Rubio and Lavrov Meet in Manila to Test Ukraine Peace Hopes
The US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, met Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, on the sidelines of an Asean gathering in Manila for just over half an hour, though the encounter produced no breakthrough. Mr Rubio said Washington was “prepared to play a constructive role in bringing about an end to a senseless war”. Moscow said Mr Lavrov had “reaffirmed Russia’s readiness for a political and diplomatic settlement”.
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Two Firefighters Die as Wildfires Sweep Southern Europe
Two firefighters have been killed battling a wildfire near Bordeaux in south-western France, where more than 10,000 holidaymakers were evacuated from campsites, as an intense heatwave drives temperatures above 40C across the Mediterranean. Fires are burning through France, Spain and Italy; Spain’s Guadalajara blaze has consumed some 32,000 hectares, and Italy has mobilised thousands to fight dozens of blazes.
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Saudi Arabia Halts Some Red Sea Oil as the Blockade Bites
Saudi Arabia has suspended some of its Red Sea oil shipments after Houthi attacks on two of its tankers, with at least five vessels reversing course, deepening the disruption to global energy trade. The Iran-aligned Houthis have declared a blockade of the strategic Bab el-Mandeb strait, opening a second front alongside the throttled Strait of Hormuz. Maritime authorities reported a tanker ablaze some 70 nautical miles off the Saudi coast, its crew unharmed.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Healey Vows a ‘Fiscal Buffer’ as Gilt Yields Hit a Two-Month High
The Chancellor, John Healey, has used his first big set-piece in the City to pledge disciplined public finances, telling executives at Bloomberg’s London headquarters that he would meet the government’s fiscal rules “with a buffer against uncertainty”. Markets were unmoved: the thirty-year gilt yield climbed towards 5.75 per cent, a two-month high, and the ten-year held above 5 per cent, keeping British borrowing costs the dearest in the G7.
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Oil at $100 Sends the FTSE Lower and Rattles Global Markets
London’s FTSE 100 fell 78 points, or 0.7 per cent, to close at 10,639, retreating from a five-month high as oil’s surge above $100 a barrel stoked fears of renewed inflation. The sell-off was sharper on Wall Street, where the S&P 500 dropped 1.2 per cent and the Nasdaq more than 2 per cent, dragged down by heavy falls in Alphabet and Tesla after disappointing earnings. Gold slid around 2 per cent and volatility jumped.
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Pump Prices Jump as $100 Oil Squeezes Burnham’s Cost-of-Living Plan
The surge in oil has begun to bite at the forecourt, with petrol rising around 5p to 155.6p a litre and diesel up 8p to 172.1p, according to the RAC, threatening the centrepiece of Andy Burnham’s cost-of-living agenda. The RAC’s Simon Williams said fuel prices were “shooting up like a rocket on the back of oil being above $90”. The Prime Minister spent Thursday promoting cheaper bills even as the war pushed them the other way.
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Resident Doctors to Strike for Five Days as Waiting Lists Fall
Tens of thousands of resident doctors in England will stage a five-day strike from 25 July after rejecting the government’s pay offer, the British Medical Association has confirmed. The walkout, over a demand to restore pay eroded since 2008, threatens widespread cancellations of operations and appointments. The Health Secretary, Wes Streeting, urged the union to call it off, pointing to NHS waiting lists that have fallen to their lowest level since early 2023.
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Heat Alerts and Hosepipe Bans Widen as the Summer Bakes On
A fresh Thames Water hosepipe ban took effect across London on Thursday, extending restrictions that now cover more than 23 million people, as amber heat-health alerts remained in force across much of England. This year has become the first on record to see temperatures reach 35C in each of May, June and July. Water companies say prolonged heat and the driest spring on record have left reservoirs and rivers depleted.
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Morning Briefing
What It Means For You
- Petrol & Bills: Oil has surged above $95 a barrel — a six-week high — as the Gulf war chokes shipping, threatening to push petrol and diesel prices back up just as UK inflation had eased to a 15-month low of 2.6 per cent. Forecourt costs could rise within weeks.
- Your Water: Around 23 million people in England are now under hosepipe bans after Thames Water restricted its ten million customers, following the driest spring on record. Expect tighter curbs on watering gardens and washing cars as reservoirs run low.
- Mortgages & Savings: UK borrowing costs remain the highest in the G7, with ten-year gilt yields near 5 per cent and the pound below $1.34, as markets question how the government’s giveaways will be funded. The Bank of England is expected to hold rates on 30 July.
GEO Geopolitical
US Bombs Iran for a Twelfth Night as Oil Spikes Anew
American forces struck Iran for a twelfth consecutive night, US Central Command said, hitting “maritime capabilities, missile and drone storage facilities, coastal surveillance sites and air-defence assets”. Explosions were reported across the south, from Bandar Abbas to Bushehr. Iran’s parliament speaker, Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf, was defiant: “The equation for this war is clear: it is all or nothing.” The Pentagon puts its losses at eighteen dead and 482 wounded.
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Oil Tops $95 as a Saudi Tanker Burns in the Red Sea
Brent crude pushed above $95 a barrel, a six-week high and a near-$20 rise since fighting resumed on 7 July, after fresh attacks on Gulf shipping. Yemen’s Houthis said they had struck two oil tankers; the Saudi-linked Encelia was hit and caught fire at the bow, though its crew were reported safe. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard separately claimed a tanker had caught fire after an explosion near the Strait of Hormuz.
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Trump Threatens Iran’s ‘Pickaxe Mountain’ as Tehran Denies Nuclear Work
President Trump has warned that the United States will strike a fortified site south of Natanz known as “Pickaxe Mountain”, which Western intelligence believes shelters Iran’s centrifuge programme. Tehran on Wednesday denied conducting any nuclear activity at the complex. Iran’s top joint military command has threatened to target American and allied interests across the region should its nuclear facilities be hit.
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Zelensky Sacks His Army Chief After Days of Kyiv Protests
President Zelensky has dismissed his commander-in-chief, General Oleksandr Syrskyi, and named the ground-forces commander, Major-General Mykhailo Drapatyi, to lead Ukraine’s army. The move follows nearly a week of protests in Kyiv, sparked by the earlier removal of the defence minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, with demonstrators demanding Syrskyi’s departure. Mr Zelensky has ordered the new command to produce an updated defence strategy.
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Wildfires Rage Across Spain and France Amid Another Heatwave
Spain, France and Italy are battling fierce wildfires as a third heatwave of the summer pushes temperatures towards 44C. A blaze in Spain’s Guadalajara region has consumed some 32,000 hectares, one of the country’s largest on record, while fires in the French Var and on Sicily have forced evacuations. Spain’s prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, said: “Climate change kills and destroys wealth… This isn’t politics. It is science.”
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Burnham Weighs North Sea Drilling in a Manifesto Reckoning
Andy Burnham’s government is weighing approval for drilling at the Rosebank and Jackdaw fields, a move campaigners say would shatter Labour’s 2024 manifesto pledge to issue no new oil and gas licences. Both fields already hold consents granted in 2022–23, but an Edinburgh court voided them last year over unaccounted emissions. The new energy secretary, Miatta Fahnbulleh, is reviewing the schemes as ministers hunt for growth and energy security.
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UK Borrowing Costs Stay Highest in the G7 as Sterling Slips
British government borrowing costs remain the dearest in the G7, with the ten-year gilt yield holding near 5.07 per cent, its highest since May, as investors weigh Mr Burnham’s spending pledges against his talk of fiscal “flexibility”. Sterling has slipped to around $1.337. The FTSE 100, by contrast, touched a five-month high near 10,717, buoyed by its heavy weighting in energy and commodity shares as oil climbs.
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Burnham Governs as Preferred PM but Faces a Sceptical Public
Andy Burnham enters Downing Street as the public’s clear choice for prime minister but with doubts over his readiness, polling suggests. Ipsos found three in ten Britons named him their preferred premier, on 30 per cent, well ahead of Reform’s Nigel Farage on 16 per cent and the Conservatives’ Kemi Badenoch on 13. Yet on raw voting intention Reform still led Labour narrowly, by 26 per cent to 24.
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Millions More Face Hosepipe Bans as England Dries Out
Around 23 million people in England are now under hosepipe bans after Thames Water became the latest supplier to restrict its ten million customers. The curbs follow the driest spring on record for England and Wales and three successive heatwaves. Only 13 per cent of rivers are running at normal levels for the time of year, and several reservoirs are classed as notably or exceptionally low.
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Oil’s Surge Threatens to Undo Britain’s Inflation Relief
The jump in crude prices driven by the Gulf war threatens to reverse the fall in British inflation that has buoyed Mr Burnham’s opening days. Brent’s climb above $95 a barrel feeds quickly into petrol and diesel, the very costs that pushed headline inflation down to 2.6 per cent in June, a fifteen-month low. Forecasters already expected inflation to climb back towards 3.4 per cent by the autumn; the oil spike sharpens that risk.