The Daily Brief — UK & World News, Curated Morning and Evening

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Morning Briefing

Tuesday 10 November 2026 — 08:09 GMT

What It Means For You

Parents: from September 2027 your child’s school will have to keep phones out of bags and pockets all day; expect letters about pouches or lockers, and possibly a request to leave the phone at home.
The Bank’s deputy governor puts a December rate rise at “about 50/50”: anyone on a tracker or coming off a fix should price in a second quarter-point move before Christmas rather than assume Thursday’s was the last.
Around 650 offenders leave jail today and a probation strike ballot closes on Friday; if you are a victim awaiting notification or a landlord housing a leaver, expect the probation service to be stretched this month.

GEO Geopolitical

Trump: Iran war ‘ending fairly soon’ as Saudis down missiles over Riyadh

Donald Trump said he saw “momentum toward the end of this conflict” after hosting Qatar’s prime minister in the Oval Office, telling reporters: “I think it’s going to be ending fairly soon.” He described the war as “the status quo”, kept at “the behest of countries that are their neighbours”, and said new strikes were “highly unlikely” while America stayed “locked and loaded”. Hours later Saudi Arabia intercepted missiles over Riyadh.

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“Iran militarily is effectively over,” the president said in the briefing room, adding that he would not declare the war finished because “we have some great allies there and we have to make sure they’re not hurt”. Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani said he had held “positive discussions” with Mr Trump and JD Vance on “reaching a deal and bringing peace to the region”; Tehran, Mr Trump said, was “talking very politely”. On Truth Social he said the Gulf states “prefer the status quo” of a naval blockade plus the new Operation Iron Gate against overland arms routes, and Iran’s security chief, Mohsen Rezaei, was reported to have accused Washington of “manufacturing fake news about imaginary talks”. The Gulf front is not quiet. Explosions were heard over Riyadh early on Tuesday as the coalition’s Turki al-Maliki reported a ballistic and a cruise missile destroyed over the capital and a second ballistic missile over the south; residents received shelter alerts. On Monday an attack caused a “limited fire” on the East–West pipeline in Medina region, with operations unaffected. Brent slipped below $92 in Asian trading. Watch whether Qatar’s two-day proposal survives Rezaei’s denial that talks exist.

Abu Dhabi talks open with ‘a little bit of flexibility’, Europe outside

American-brokered talks between Russia and Ukraine open in Abu Dhabi on Tuesday, the first trilateral round since Geneva in February, with US officials reporting “a little bit of flexibility, privately” from both sides on the occupied east. Britain, Germany, France, the EU and Nato will meet the US negotiators beforehand but not join the main talks; Dmitry Peskov said the Americans “have their own channels of communication with Europeans”. Washington says it wants “a final end to the war”.

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The American framework, set out by Jared Kushner, covers “stronger consultation, reliable crisis communications, greater military transparency, and reciprocal measures to reduce escalation risks”, with a revived Nato–Russia Council and eventual sanctions relief on the table and, officials say, a US security guarantee for Ukraine “effectively very similar to Nato”. “They will not solve the Donetsk issue and the territorial issue until they know what the security architecture is going to be after the war,” one official said. Europe is wary: Germany’s Johann Wadephul told the G7 in Paris that “there can be no solution without Europe — only with Europe” and that it was “neither necessary, nor right, nor appropriate” to redraw the continent’s security architecture, while Kaja Kallas said “the problem is that Russia is not respecting” the agreements that already exist. Marco Rubio conceded “we’ve got a ways to go” but called resumed talks “better than not having talks”. Volodymyr Zelensky, claiming Russian losses at record levels, said his forces were “genuinely strengthening Ukraine’s negotiating position”; Russia holds roughly a fifth of the country. Donald Trump said both sides were “tired of fighting”. Watch whether the Europeans get a seat for day two.

FBI looking into Huang affair, says Trump, as Nvidia shareholders sue

Donald Trump said Jensen Huang had told him “I had no idea she was a spy” and that “I really believe him”, before adding that “the FBI is looking into it in terms of something else”. A class action was filed in federal court in San Jose on Monday accusing Nvidia and its chief executive of misleading investors over his relationship with Alice Huang, a former Megaspeed executive suspected of helping smuggle chips to China. Asian chip stocks surged on Tuesday.

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The shares closed around $178, cutting the company’s value to about $4.3tn, even as the S&P 500 rose 2.35% for its best day since April and the Nasdaq 2.74%; accounts of the fall range from 3.2% to more than 4%. Mr Trump said Mr Huang “is suffering greatly … more so because of his family, his wife, who he loves” and predicted “he’ll be in good shape”, but his place in next week’s presidential delegation to China is in doubt and Senator Chris Coons wants to know whether national security was compromised; the FBI declined to comment. Beijing called the allegations “entirely groundless, speculative and intended to smear and malign China”. The succession question is now live: Melius notes “there is no clear successor to Jensen”, who owns just over 3% of a company with eleven directors and no chair, and Redburn says he could step back if the probe finds “something materially more serious”. Tuesday’s Asian session shrugged it off: SoftBank jumped 13.4%, SK Hynix 5.2%, Samsung 3.9% and Tokyo Electron 4.7%. Watch Washington’s closed-door briefing next week.

Massie forces Hegseth impeachment vote by Wednesday; Trump calls him ‘sick’

Thomas Massie introduced eight articles of impeachment against Pete Hegseth on the House floor on Monday, starting a clock that compels a vote within two legislative days, by Wednesday. “By engaging in hostilities in Iran for more than 90 days without congressional authorisation, Secretary Hegseth is breaking the law,” the Kentucky Republican said. Donald Trump called him “a stone cold loser” and “sick”, insisting the defence secretary “won two wars”. Mike Johnson warned impeachment during hostilities “would be a terrible, terrible look”.

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The 34-page resolution devotes three articles to waging war without authorisation and others to the strike on an Iranian school, the Caribbean boat strikes, the capture of Nicolás Maduro and the treatment of Senator Mark Kelly; it says Mr Hegseth “will remain a threat to the Constitution if allowed to remain in office”. Mr Massie, first filing in September, framed it as “a much gentler version of what’s coming when the Democrats assume control” in January: “If the Senate doesn’t deal with this before the end of this Senate, they’re turning it over to a Democrat Senate.” With the House split 218–214 and Hakeem Jeffries “a hard yes”, a handful of Republicans decide it: James Comer says “no one’s happy about Iran”, French Hill is undecided and Don Bacon is “wrestling” with it. Mr Trump, appearing in the briefing room with the UFC’s Dana White, said “the soldiers … they love Pete Hegseth” and asked why nobody had “gone after all these other people that ran wars and lost”. Mr Hegseth called the effort a “sham” and holds his first news conference since May on Tuesday. Watch the whip count.

Novaya Gazeta, Russia’s last big independent paper, shuts its doors

Novaya Gazeta closed its Moscow offices on Monday after thirty-three years, the last major independent outlet critical of the Kremlin still operating inside Russia. Its staff said the authorities had “forced our editorial team to cease operations” through fines, a foreign-agent label, blocked platforms, a seized printing house, revoked registration, frozen donations and finally eviction. “Human rights and freedoms have been abolished in this country, and defending them is now treated as a crime,” the paper said.

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Founded in 1993, the paper lost six journalists to murder, among them Anna Politkovskaya in 2006, and its editor Dmitry Muratov shared the Nobel peace prize in 2021 before being doused with paint in 2022 and stepping down in 2023 when he too was branded a foreign agent. Staff left a sign on the door reading “Here lived Novaya Gazeta”; the reporter Tatiana Britskaya said “this is our home, and we’re losing it”, and the editor-in-chief, Sergei Sokolov, promised: “Novaya Gazeta will return, to our readers and to our colleagues.” The Kremlin’s Dmitry Peskov called Russian media “highly diverse” and the closure part of “a standard rotational process”. Independent Russian journalism now publishes from exile. For the Abu Dhabi negotiators who speak of “military transparency” and reviving the Nato–Russia Council, it is a reminder of the domestic order any settlement would entrench. Watch whether the exile edition keeps the name.

UK UK Domestic Politics

Phones to be banned from pupils’ bags and pockets in England’s schools

Pupils in England will not be allowed to have mobile phones on them at all during the school day under tightened government guidance taking effect in September 2027, going beyond the “no see, no hear” rules many schools run now. “School is for learning and friendship, not scrolling,” said Lucy Powell, the education secretary. Heads welcomed the clarity but warned that lockable pouches or storage for every pupil would carry a cost that is “not feasible unless the government puts in the funding required”.

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Statutory guidance in force since June already makes schools legally responsible for being phone-free through the day; the change removes the loophole that lets a phone stay silent in a bag. Schools will choose the method — pouches, lockers, collection at the gate or an outright ban on bringing devices — and the government says phones risk “pulling children away from their learning and from each other”. Paul Whiteman of the NAHT called phones an “unhelpful distraction” that raises “safety issues” but said the measures “come at a cost”; the ASCL’s Pepe Di’Iasio said leaders “cannot simply make mobile phones disappear” and that the bill for secure storage “will be very significant indeed”. A parents’ campaigner warned pupils would still be “TikToking in the toilets”. The Conservatives’ Laura Trott said she was “delighted that Labour have finally listened to us”. The policy sits beside the under-16 social media ban due in March, and England now moves ahead of Wales, where the Senedd rejected a statutory ban, while Scotland legislates and Northern Ireland consults. The announcement rests on one outlet’s overnight report; watch for the Department for Education’s published guidance and the funding question.

US tankers moved out of RAF Mildenhall over Iran threat, report says

The US Air Force moved refuelling tankers from RAF Mildenhall in Suffolk to Germany and other bases on Monday because of a threat linked to Iran, according to a Wall Street Journal report citing officials and flight-tracking data, and the security posture at Mildenhall and neighbouring Lakenheath has been raised to the second-highest level, used when “a form of terrorist action is likely”. The Ministry of Defence said: “Aircraft and other assets move regularly according to operational requirements.”

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Two tankers diverted to Germany early on Monday and several more followed during the day, the report said; “the precise nature of the threat to RAF Mildenhall remains under discussion among US officials”. The US Air Force would give no details, saying only that aircraft rotate between bases “for a variety of reasons”; the White House, Pentagon and European Command did not respond. It is the second British base emptied of American aircraft in two months: B-1 bombers were withdrawn from RAF Fairford after five people were arrested in September and two more later on suspicion of assisting Iranian intelligence, and Andy Burnham said last month that activity was “likely to have been coordinated in Iran”. The Revolutionary Guard declared in July that Fairford and any base used to launch strikes were “legitimate targets”. The move signals the US intelligence picture of Iranian reach into Britain even as Donald Trump talks of the conflict “ending fairly soon”. Every account traces to the single WSJ report — the Guardian and Independent carry the same agency copy and the Times of Israel summarises it — and no outlet names the aircraft beyond “tankers”. Watch for an MoD or Suffolk police statement.

Bank deputy warns of ‘low-gear economy’ as young people bear the cost

Clare Lombardelli, the Bank of England’s deputy governor for monetary policy, says Britain is in “a low-gear economy” in which firms neither hire nor fire — and “what you see is the cost falling on young people, so you can see this rapid rise in the number of young people who are struggling to find jobs”. A second rate rise in December is “certainly plausible … It’s about 50/50”, she said, ahead of a speech in London on Tuesday.

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“A labour market where you’re seeing a real fall-off in hiring. But actually, we’re not seeing much in the way of redundancies,” she said; employers “are delaying hiring” because “none of us thought we’d be nine months into this conflict”, and they now see “hiring a young person” as “a higher risk than it used to be”, especially in hospitality and retail. Unemployment is 4.7%, youth unemployment the highest outside the pandemic since 2015, and almost a million young people are neither working nor studying. The uncomfortable corollary for the Bank is that “you can have higher unemployment without it exerting a downward pressure on inflation … so that’s obviously a problem”. Ms Lombardelli voted with the majority to raise Bank Rate from 3.75% to 4% last Thursday and would not rule out December: “Equally, I don’t have enough information just yet.” Oil has since fallen below $100 and on Tuesday morning Brent traded near $91, which cuts the other way. Watch the speech text and next week’s labour-market data.

Around 650 more prisoners walk free today in third early-release wave

About 650 offenders serving up to three years and two months leave prisons in England and Wales on Tuesday after a third of their sentence rather than half, the third tranche of the early-release programme; at least 1,350 have gone since 1 October and officials expect 2,500 by the end of the year, with the scheme reaching those on terms over 12 years next June. Prisons held 86,982 people on Monday, 97.6% of usable capacity, with room for 2,076 more.

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The cohort includes affray, burglary and fraud, and some violent offenders convicted of wounding, grievous bodily harm with intent or lower-end firearms charges; more than 70 offences are excluded, among them manslaughter, rape, sexual and grooming offences and life terms. The programme has bought roughly 500 more empty cells than existed on its eve, in a system that added about 500 net places between 2010 and 2024 and must find 14,000 by 2031; without the Sentencing Act the population was projected to reach 104,000 by 2032 against capacity of 99,000. The strain shifts to probation. Recalls to custody ran at 12,338 between April and June, 12% up on a year earlier, and 51,419 in the year to March, a 28% rise, with about a fifth for new offences; Napo, whose members voted on strike action over a 5% pay offer against a 12% claim, announces its result on Friday, and warned on Saturday that leavers are being discharged onto the streets. The Institute for Government’s Cassia Rowland says “the probation service is overwhelmed”. Kemi Badenoch is “worried about dangerous people being let out”, though her party freed more than 10,000 early in 2023–24. Watch Friday’s ballot.

Jemima Goldsmith says Brand assaulted her and she called police in 2014

Jemima Goldsmith has said she suffered Russell Brand’s “violence, coercive control and abuse” during their year-long relationship and “had to call the police to have him removed from my house in 2014 during a violent incident”, choosing not to press charges to shield her teenage children from press attention. Writing on X hours after his sentencing, she said she was “in awe of the courageous women who came forward” and “glad and relieved that Russell Brand has finally faced justice”.

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Ms Goldsmith, who was with Brand from around September 2013, said she had “neither seen nor spoken to Brand since that period in 2014” and that “whilst my pain in relation to this pales in comparison to what the women have testified in court have suffered, this was a difficult period in my life which has had a lasting impact”. She had undertaken to testify to his abusiveness if the newspaper that published the victims’ accounts was sued; Rosamund Urwin said she had spoken out “with immense bravery”. The statement also explained a harassment injunction she and Brand obtained against a masseuse, Szilvia Berki, after a booking in June 2014: Ms Goldsmith said she was present throughout and “did not see anything untoward”, that Brand “later physically assaulted me”, and that she agreed to his lawyer’s suggestion of an order only “to stop Ms Berki targeting me and my family”; police found no case to answer. Reports date the injunction to 2014 or to October 2015. Brand began a ten-and-a-half-year sentence at Wandsworth on Monday; the Met’s investigation “remains ongoing”. Watch whether Ms Goldsmith’s account becomes part of that file.

One To Read The superpower battle over energy – and what it means for your bills BBC News · January bills could jump by more than a quarter, around £460 a year for a typical household, with Europe’s gas stores at their lowest since records began; the BBC traces the line from the Gulf and Washington to your meter.

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Evening Briefing

Monday 9 November 2026 — 17:46 GMT

What It Means For You

If you are one of Thames Water’s 16 million customers, Monday’s deal changes nothing on your bill but buys the government time to choose between a creditor takeover and state control; either way Ofwat has already allowed an extra £3.4bn in tariffs on top of the 36% rise to 2030.
Consultants strike on 25 and 26 November and Tube drivers from 26 November: if you have a hospital appointment or a London commute that week, expect emergency-only cover and plan around it now.
Oil fell 4.5% today after Trump played down new Iran strikes; if the fall holds, pump prices should ease within a fortnight, but the Guards’ tanker attacks and the Riyadh strike show how quickly that can reverse.

GEO Geopolitical

Nvidia sheds $300bn as Huang’s affair with suspected spy is probed

Nvidia shares fell as much as 7.5% at the New York open, to a seven-month low of $172.75, wiping about $335bn from the world’s most valuable company after its board opened an independent investigation into reports that Jensen Huang was the target of a Chinese intelligence operation through a woman with whom he had an affair. “I was unfaithful to my wife,” Mr Huang wrote to staff. “There is no excuse for what I did.” China called the spy claim “slander”.

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Alice Huang, also known as Huang Le, was an executive at the Singapore data-centre firm Megaspeed from March to November 2023 and, US officials reportedly believe, was recruited by China’s Ministry of State Security; her whereabouts are unknown, and Singapore is investigating Megaspeed, which Washington has suspected of smuggling Nvidia chips to China. The board said it “has no reason to believe that either national security or NVIDIA secrets were compromised” and “has confidence in Jensen”; Mr Huang, who owns about 3.6% of the company, said “I love our country and our company” and promised to “cooperate fully”. Donald Trump stood by him — “I think he’s an honorable guy. I think he probably has an excuse for it” — and said he expected him to stay as chief executive. Congress does not: House Republicans want a closed-door briefing on 18 November and Chris Coons said “Congress will investigate and get answers”. Beijing’s Guo Jiakun said: “The so-called Chinese spy narrative is purely a groundless accusation, slander, and a smear.” By late afternoon the shares had pared the fall to about 6%, roughly $280bn, while the Nasdaq rose 2%. Analysts call Mr Huang “not replaceable”; watch the 18 November briefing.

France blames Iran’s Revolutionary Guards for fridge cyber-attacks

France has formally attributed October’s cyber-attacks on supermarket refrigeration to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps, summoning Tehran’s ambassador and seeking European sanctions. “It marks the first large-scale cyberattack aimed at sabotage on our national territory,” said Jean-Noël Barrot, the foreign minister. Paris prosecutors named the IRGC-linked unit Shahid Kaveh, sought international arrest warrants for its leader and two deputies, and said about 700 shops were hit and roughly twenty fires started.

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The attacks on 11 and 12 October reset fridges into endless defrost cycles while disabling alarms, pushing temperatures to 50C overnight in more than 100 Coopérative U stores, at least 180 Intermarché and Netto shops, 80 Carrefours and about 5% of Monoprix’s outlets, spoiling food worth millions of euros; the software came from the Danish engineering firm Danfoss. A second wave hit more than 100 sites in Belgium, Luxembourg, Sweden, Ireland, the Netherlands, Estonia and Finland and reached refrigerators used by French blood banks, whose products were not damaged. Investigators cite Farsi-language traces and Iranian IP addresses. Mr Barrot called the campaign “unprecedented in both its scale and its level of aggression” and promised sanctions “against all those responsible”; Iran had not responded by evening. The attribution lands as the war itself grinds on: Iran’s Guards say they struck three tankers near Hormuz on Sunday for using “unauthorised routes”, Hormozgan officials confirmed the overnight US strikes on Qeshm hit nothing of value, and Tehran insists its seven demands — the blockade lifted, sanctions eased — stand. Watch the EU sanctions list.

Trump questions whether the midterms were ‘honest’ as Miller starts

Six days after telling the New York Times he was “absolutely willing” to accept the results, Donald Trump posted: “Does anybody really believe that this ‘Election’ was honest. How could the Polls be so wrong???” He blamed early-voting “dumps” that were “so large that it was impossible to win” and said “it’s all about the machines”. Chuck Schumer said the president’s “return to election denialism was inevitable”. Stephen Miller began work as chief of staff.

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State and local officials across the country reported largely trouble-free voting, and the Justice Department’s pre-election suits in California and Alaska failed in nearly every court. Democrats hold 54 Senate seats and 254 House seats with counting continuing; in Mississippi, Scott Colom leads Cindy Hyde-Smith by more than 2,500 votes at 97% counted, with postal ballots accepted until Tuesday, and Alaska remains uncalled. The day after the vote Mr Trump had said he would “probably” get along with Democrats “unless they want to be destructive”; by Sunday he told CBS: “We would have won easily if I was on the ballot.” Mr Miller, 41, took over from Susie Wiles on Monday as the deputy chief of staff Richard Walters also departed; no first-day statement was reported. Mr Trump told 60 Minutes his deportation drive “might be too tough, yeah”, a striking concession given his new chief of staff designed it. On Capitol Hill, Republican Don Bacon said he was weighing the Hegseth impeachment articles. Watch whether the “machines” line becomes a campaign against certification in the uncalled races.

Migrant boats sink: 39 dead off Senegal, 14 off Crete

At least 39 people died when a boat bound for the Canary Islands capsized off the Lompoul dunes, 180km north of Dakar, on Sunday; one person was rescued and 24 victims have been identified. Off Crete, a container ship spotted a boat early on Monday with 13 bodies aboard and 18 survivors, one of whom later died; the Greek coastguard rescued another 187 people from three boats the same day. Senegal’s president, Bassirou Diomaye Faye, promised to “relentlessly continue the fight” against the organisers.

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The Atlantic route to the Canaries has killed 635 people between January and May this year, by the count of the charity Walking Borders, and the islands are overwhelmed: more than 3,300 people in about 30 boats have reached El Hierro since 1 November, prompting the Canarian president, Fernando Clavijo, to call the situation “absolutely unsustainable”. Senegal intercepted a boat of 142 on Friday, including 23 women and two babies; nearly one in four young Senegalese is unemployed. The human-rights group ADHA said that despite €300,000 for the navy and the training of 300 agents, “it is no longer enough to deplore shipwrecks, announce measures and count interceptions”. In the Mediterranean, Crete has become the main Greek landing point, taking more than 22,000 of this year’s 86,400 arrivals in Europe by sea; eight more bodies were recovered from a boat on Saturday, its 28 Sudanese survivors brought ashore and two alleged smugglers, one aged 16, arrested. Frontex counts about 31,800 crossings on the central route in the first nine months, down 15%. Tolls differ by cut-off: the BBC gives 13 dead off Crete on Monday, AP 14 including the survivor who died. Watch Spain’s emergency declaration on El Hierro.

FTSE 100 rebounds 1% and oil slides 4.5% on Trump’s Iran remarks

The FTSE 100 closed up 1.02% at 10,782.87, recovering part of last week’s losses, as Brent crude fell 4.48% to $93.92 after Donald Trump said renewed strikes on Iran were “highly unlikely” if talks progress. The Dow rose 661 points, or 1.3%, to 51,947 by mid-afternoon, the Nasdaq about 2% and the S&P 500 roughly 2%, with AMD up more than 10% on a Google deal while Nvidia fell. Sterling rose 0.56% to $1.3424.

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London’s gain was led by miners and came despite the Nvidia shock, which Briefing.com’s Patrick O’Hare said the market treats as “Jensen Huang’s personal transgression” rather than a “systemic domino effect”. Oil is the bigger story for British households: Brent dropped 17% last week, its steepest weekly fall since the start of the pandemic, and Monday’s slide takes it further from the $100 that prevailed through the autumn, even as the Guards claim tanker strikes near Hormuz and the Houthis hit Riyadh. Falling crude eased the inflation worry that drove gilt yields up after Thursday’s Bank Rate rise: the ten-year held at 5.14%, up less than a basis point. The Vix fear gauge fell 20.6% to 20.36, gold rose about 1% to $4,105 on Gulf and cyber risk, and bitcoin slipped 1.3% to $74,721. The sell-off and rebound have left the FTSE still below the 10,829 it reached on 4 November and the Nasdaq more than 10% under its peak; Friday’s 165,000-job US payrolls report keeps a December Federal Reserve rise in play. Watch Tuesday’s Abu Dhabi talks and the Qatari prime minister’s White House meeting for the next move in oil.

UK UK Domestic Politics

Thames Water asks creditors to push £12bn of debt back to 2028

Thames Water has asked its lenders to extend repayment of debts falling due in March 2027 by a year to March 2028, with creditors holding more than £12bn of secured debt already signed up to the interim deal, as the company raises the first £600m of a £2.4bn emergency loan it sought last month. The utility, which serves 16 million customers and owes more than £20bn, had warned its cash would run out around the turn of the year.

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The extension buys time for Andy Burnham to decide between letting the creditor group London & Valley Water — led by American hedge funds including Elliott Management and Silver Point, with BlackRock and M&G alongside — take the company over, a route that would mean writing off fines and softening environmental commitments, or putting Thames into special administration or some other form of state control. More than 100 creditors owning about £17bn of the debt have been negotiating a £10bn plan with Ofwat since KKR walked away in May 2025; Emma Reynolds said in June it did not go far enough, the Commons environment committee said in September the takeover should be ditched, and fresh proposals are expected before the end of the year. The company says its board, Ofwat and the regulators “have made no decision to accept and take forward any proposal”. Bills are already rising: Ofwat has allowed an extra £3.4bn in tariffs on top of the 36% average increase to 2030. Tim Farron of the Liberal Democrats said “speeches don’t stop sewage”. Watch whether the creditors’ revised offer or nationalisation comes first.

Burnham warns NHS will ‘struggle’ unless consultants return to pay talks

Andy Burnham said the NHS would “struggle” to cope with consultants’ strikes on 25 and 26 November and urged the BMA back to the table: “It’s not a case of ‘dig in’; more a case of, ‘let’s get back around the table’.” Speaking at Watford General Hospital, he added: “I’m not saying the thing that politicians often say about there being no money, but it’s just a fact, we have eked out what we could at the budget for the NHS.”

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Consultants in England will walk out from 06:59 on 25 November, providing emergency cover only, after 76% of those voting backed action on a turnout of just over half of eligible BMA members — which the government says amounts to about one in five consultants. They received a 3.5% rise this year; the union says pay has fallen by a quarter in 17 years and wants the working week cut from 40 to 35 hours, higher out-of-hours rates and pension flexibility. Average earnings top £150,000. The BMA’s co-chairs say ministers have “kicked the can down the road” and “that road has now run out”; Yvette Cooper has called the strike “irresponsible”. The prime minister said: “It’s not a great time of year to be considering that prospect, but I’m always one who wants to talk things through.” He was in Watford to launch a £40m winter plan paying £126 per patient for up to 300,000 people, conceding: “I’m not going to pretend this winter will be easy.” A consultants’ strike overlapping the Tube stoppages from 26 November would be the sharpest test yet of his NHS promises. Watch for a BMA response this week.

Poundland cannot buy stock as owner freezes £50m ahead of Thursday deadline

Poundland is unable to buy new stock for its 600 shops because its American owner, Gordon Brothers, has frozen about £50m in the chain’s bank accounts, leaving it “running on fumes” with until Thursday to secure a rescue, when a ten-day moratorium protecting it from creditors expires. Gordon Brothers, which bought the retailer for £1 last June, rejected a takeover bid that could have saved thousands of jobs; London-based Xyra Group is now seen as the front-runner. Some 11,000 jobs are at stake.

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The chain filed a notice of intention to appoint administrators last week, and an extension of the moratorium is now thought increasingly likely; one source expects the owner to release funds within two days. Poundland’s boss, Barry Williams, says like-for-like sales rose 11.4% last week and are £1.5m ahead of budget, and that the business made an unaudited £18.1m profit in the year to September after losing £68m the year before. Gordon Brothers, which has taken about £18m in interest, fees and charges since buying the business, describes it as “challenged and vulnerable to any potential downturn”. Its executives appear before the Commons business committee in private on Wednesday. Poundstretcher, Tesco and B&M have shown interest in picking up stores if the chain breaks up. Andy Burnham said last week there was an “opportunity to save jobs” and that talks between Jonathan Reynolds and the owner had been “reasonably constructive”: “We’re in a better place at the end of this week than we were at the end of last week, but it’s not done yet.” The figures on frozen cash and stock come from the BBC’s reporting alone. Watch Wednesday’s committee and Thursday’s deadline.

Author of Labour’s Brexit red lines says they deserve ‘dignified retirement’

Chris Ward, the minister who co-wrote Labour’s 2024 pledge never to rejoin the EU, the single market or the customs union, says the red lines “should be given a well-earned and dignified retirement” by the next election because “they no longer speak to the world as it is in 2026”. Andy Burnham attends the European Political Community summit in Dublin on Thursday and signs agreements on food, emissions trading and youth mobility in Brussels on 20 November.

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Mr Ward, the Brighton Kemptown MP who was Sir Keir Starmer’s chief adviser as shadow Brexit secretary and one of the ministers working on the EU reset, says the lines were “designed precisely to close down the debate and to narrow the target that Brexit had become for Labour” and that the coming deal “will demonstrate that real benefits can be delivered within those red lines” — cheaper prices, youth mobility, Erasmus+. But he argues Britain “could no longer rely on the Americans”, that the minimum should be “a deep and enduring defence and trade partnership”, and that he “never understood the argument” for the single market without membership; the question of rejoining “was unthinkable in 2016, but it is unavoidable in 2026”. The intervention is understood to prefigure a speech by the prime minister after the Brussels summit on options for the relationship, with a single-market pledge possible in a manifesto but full membership requiring a referendum; Michel Barnier said on Sunday the door is open within four years but with “no cherry picking”. Watch Dublin for how far Mr Burnham goes in front of 40-odd European leaders.

Rail investigators warn of ‘obvious risk of further tragedy’ at user-worked crossings

The Rail Accident Investigation Branch has found that the lights at Bax crossing near Teynham in Kent “almost certainly” led Brandon Hatcher, a 23-year-old Amazon delivery driver, to believe it was safe to cross when a Southeastern train from Ramsgate struck his van in July 2025. “Private user worked crossings are a 19th-century concept operating in a 21st century world,” said the chief inspector, Andrew Hall, urging the government and industry to act “before there is further tragedy”.

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Mr Hatcher, from Ashford, was working for a contractor, GG Logistix, when he opened the entry gate and drove onto the line; the exit gate was still closed. The reports give different speeds — 71mph in the official account carried by the Independent, 90mph in the Guardian — and differ on whether three passengers were slightly hurt or nobody else was injured; both quote the RAIB verbatim. A second driver, Simon Gettings, 55, died at a similar crossing in Lancashire in August when a Northern train hit his vehicle. User-worked crossings, where the person crossing opens and shuts the gates and must judge the line for themselves, number in the thousands on Britain’s network and are concentrated on rural farm tracks that delivery vans now use daily; the investigators’ point is that the design assumed a farmer who knew the line, not a courier following a satnav. Network Rail and the Department for Transport are asked to find “effective ways to mitigate this obvious risk”. Watch whether the DfT funds closures or telephone-and-light upgrades in the rail settlement, or leaves the question to Network Rail’s next control period.

One To Read ‘No concession’: What to expect from Russia-US-Ukraine talks in Abu Dhabi Al Jazeera · Who sits at the table on Tuesday, why Moscow says no Europeans will, and why Ukrainian MPs expect “no tangible progress” from the first round in nine months.

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Morning Briefing

Monday 9 November 2026 — 08:00 GMT

What It Means For You

If you are buying a car, the likely cut in the EV mandate from 80% to about 60% by 2030 changes the discounting calculus: expect fewer forced electric deals and slower charger roll-out if Wednesday’s meeting goes as expected.
Erasmus+ reopens in January: 18-year-olds get free rail passes and applications open later this month, so students and parents should check eligibility now rather than wait for the Brussels summit on 20 November.
The Brand sentence and the “time is up” warning to broadcasters mean workplace complaints procedures in media and entertainment are about to be tested; if you work in the sector, the standards authority is the route ministers want you to use.

GEO Geopolitical

Trump calls new Iran strikes ‘highly unlikely’ as land blockade begins

Donald Trump said further attacks on Iran were “highly unlikely” to be necessary if Tehran signs “a very strong agreement”, while warning that three aircraft carriers are “fully locked and loaded” and that “we have 38 bridges in our site that we can knock down in literally one hour”. Task Force Iron Gate, announced by Central Command on Saturday to choke Iran’s land borders and the Caspian, is “in full force and effect”, he said. Marco Rubio called Iran’s demands “outrageous and ridiculous”.

Dive deeper

On 60 Minutes the president defended the eight-month war as “an emphatic yes” because “you can’t let Iran have a nuclear weapon”, and said he was “not looking” to escalate. He agreed with JD Vance that the war and petrol prices cost Republicans the midterms. The new task force extends the months-old naval blockade to overland trade, targeting “advanced weapons systems, dual-use technologies, sanctioned materials, and illegal revenue streams”; the Revolutionary Guard dismissed it as “wordplay”. Mr Rubio, speaking in Florida before the G7 meeting in Paris, said talks had “not been very productive” and that Washington was not “on the verge of a breakthrough”, though he called the war “not necessarily popular, but necessary”. Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s foreign minister, said his two-day implementation offer “stands” if the United States ends “war on all fronts” — “or choose war, and see our alert and battle-hardened Warriors rain down hell”. Tehran wants sanctions lifted and the war ended before negotiating. Mr Trump meets Qatar’s prime minister at the White House on Monday; watch whether the Doha plan survives the rhetoric.

Herzog hands Eisenkot 28 days to form Israel’s government

Isaac Herzog formally tasked Gadi Eisenkot with forming a government on Sunday, giving the former chief of staff 28 days to assemble 61 votes in a Knesset where his bloc holds 48 seats to Benjamin Netanyahu’s 53. “We are in a state of emergency, approaching a point of no return for the state of Israel,” Mr Eisenkot said. “We must form a national emergency government. This will require creative and unconventional political steps.”

Dive deeper

The president cited the “new political reality” in Washington and said “the State of Israel needs a stable government”. Mr Eisenkot, 66, extended “my hand … wholeheartedly and willingly, to anyone who understands the gravity of this moment”, appealing directly to Likud and Bezalel Smotrich’s party: “If members of Likud and the Religious Zionist Party truly believe this is a time for unity, as they told the president, I cannot conceive of any reason why they would not support a government under my leadership.” He insists on being prime minister himself. The arithmetic leaves three routes — a power-sharing deal with Mr Netanyahu, the Arab-led parties that won a record 19 seats, or the ultra-Orthodox factions, whose support would give him exactly 61 — and each is fraught: Avigdor Lieberman’s party refuses to sit with Arab-led parties, while Mr Netanyahu, who called at the weekend for a “national unity” government, has repeatedly claimed the 27 October election was “stolen” and warned against “hastily swearing in a government with terrorist supporters”. The Shin Bet is examining possible foreign interference, though the election commission and the president say the result stands. Herzog can grant a 14-day extension; watch the ultra-Orthodox price.

Houthi strike damages Aramco tower in Riyadh as Syria sends troops

A Houthi attack damaged the Aramco Tower in Riyadh’s King Abdullah Financial District on Saturday night, blowing out windows across several floors; Saudi Arabia’s energy ministry reported “minor damage” from falling debris and no casualties, while footage analysed by the BBC showed at least one floor badly hit. Syria is sending an initial 600 special forces to the kingdom, three officials told AP, and a drone strike on the Khor Mor gas field knocked most of Iraqi Kurdistan off the grid.

Dive deeper

The Houthis said they had targeted Riyadh’s business zone, the airport and Aramco storage; the Saudis said air defences intercepted several missiles. The attack is the most visible blow to the capital since the 10 October strike on King Khalid airport killed 13 people, and it comes a day after the Houthis accused the Saudi-led coalition of killing at least 33 in al-Shariyah. Riyadh is leaning on Damascus: 36 Syrian military officials have visited the Jeddah operations room, the first 600 fighters are expected within a week, and Saudi Arabia has lent Syria more than $400m. Damascus insists the deployment is for “training, expertise exchange and military consultations” and that “there is no deployment of troops to Yemen”, though AFP reported Syrians running drone operations there. In northern Iraq the Sunday-night drone strike on Khor Mor, in Sulaimaniyah governorate, cut 2,500 to 2,800 megawatts and left more than 70% of the Kurdish region without power, with supply suspended to Erbil, Sulaimaniyah and Duhok; nobody has claimed it. The Saudi–Houthi war, reignited in July after the 2022 ceasefire collapsed, now runs alongside the US–Iran one; watch whether Riyadh’s new Mecca defence pact with Turkey and Pakistan is invoked.

Jeffries backs Hegseth impeachment as Congress returns to a 11 December deadline

Hakeem Jeffries declared himself “a hard yes” on impeaching Pete Hegseth, saying the defence secretary “engineered this reckless and costly war of choice in Iran” and “has got to go”, as Congress returned for a lame-duck session with government funding expiring on 11 December. Thomas Massie intends to refile his eight-article resolution as early as Monday, forcing a vote within two legislative days. Mr Hegseth said: “We’re not worried about that.”

Dive deeper

The 34-page resolution charges the secretary with waging war without congressional authorisation under the 1973 War Powers Resolution, the strike on an Iranian school, the Caribbean boat strikes, the capture of Nicolás Maduro and his treatment of Senator Mark Kelly. “The question is whether he committed impeachable acts,” Mr Massie wrote. “And the answer is yes, eight times.” Republicans are uneasy but unconvinced: James Comer said “no one’s happy about Iran” while French Hill said that “doesn’t mean per se that he’s committed an impeachable offense”. Donald Trump has said he has “every intention” of keeping him. The wider agenda is heavy: Democrats will hold at least 255 House seats and as many as 56 in the Senate from January, the national debt passed $40tn in September against a $41.1tn ceiling, and the defence bill exceeds $1tn. The oversight war has begun early — Elizabeth Warren told the administration to “get ready for some investigations” and the deputy attorney general, Todd Blanche, replied that “there could be” counter-investigations of lawmakers, adding “I would be very worried if I was a member on that committee”. Watch the Democratic caucus meeting on Tuesday.

Europe joins Abu Dhabi talks as Russia fires 317 drones overnight

US-brokered Russia–Ukraine talks open in Abu Dhabi on Tuesday with European envoys present for the first time, after France’s Jean-Noël Barrot said “France will be there and will ensure that Europe’s voice is heard” and the Kremlin’s Yuri Ushakov retorted: “No one is going to invite them to the negotiating table.” Overnight Russia launched 317 drones, including 105 jet-powered, at four substations; more than 600,000 people in Dnipropetrovsk lost power at the weekend.

Dive deeper

This is the fourth American-brokered round and the first since Geneva in February. Rustem Umerov says Ukraine’s team “will meet separately with European envoys”, and Dmitry Peskov, while insisting “this is a matter of trilateral negotiations”, conceded that “at some stage it would be impossible to do it without the Europeans”. Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff consulted Kyiv, the EU, Nato and the main European capitals beforehand; Mr Kushner hopes the talks “will identify areas of common ground”, and Sergei Lavrov says “collective security” tops Moscow’s agenda. Donald Trump told 60 Minutes a deal was “very close” and that Ukraine would “end up with a little bit different shape” — which is why Volodymyr Zelensky calls the format “not simple” and potentially “dangerous”, invoking Yalta. The energy war has not paused: 250,000 customers in Kharkiv region and 140 apartment blocks in Zhytomyr were cut off, an Odesa warehouse strike killed three, Ukraine hit the KINEF refinery near St Petersburg, and Moscow’s defence ministry promised to “continue to carry out strikes” on fuel and power. Watch whether the Europeans get into the room or only the corridor.

UK UK Domestic Politics

Russell Brand jailed for ten and a half years

Russell Brand was sentenced at Southwark Crown Court to ten years and six months for raping a 21-year-old fan in 2009 and sexually assaulting three women between 2004 and 2009, and must serve two-thirds before he is eligible for parole. Mr Justice Bennathan told him: “Whatever women wear, wherever they go, indeed whatever they drink, they retain the right to say no and to demand justice from the criminal courts when sexual predators like you, Russell Brand, act without their consent.”

Dive deeper

The judge gave nine years for the rape, adding two for removing a condom and other aggravating factors, and nine, 18 and eight months for the assaults; he said Brand, 51, had shown “staggering arrogance”, told “a series of lies” and believed “that fame meant you could act however you liked, when you liked, unhindered by the rules by which decent people live”, indulged by an entourage. Brand told his wife “we’ll be OK” before a van took him to Wandsworth. The four women’s statements were read by the prosecutor: the rape victim said “his fame, wealth and influence created a power imbalance which made me feel powerless”; the Channel 4 worker said her complaint was “brushed under the carpet by senior management”. Ian Winter KC argued his client was “a man who went too far and overrode consent that had been given”, not “in general terms a rapist”. The Met says its investigation “remains ongoing”, with two further rape complaints, one from a woman who was 16, before prosecutors. Lisa Nandy said on Sunday that “time is up” for the media industry. Watch the charging decision on the two new files.

Nandy ‘horrified’ by Tory attack over Erasmus announcement on Remembrance Sunday

Lisa Nandy rejected claims she had politicised Remembrance Sunday after a government release announcing Britain’s return to Erasmus+ said that “as we mark Remembrance Sunday, Erasmus+ will give a new generation the chance to build connections across Europe”. Kevin Hollinrake, the Conservative chairman, called it “tone deaf and frankly shameful”: “Our veterans did not fight for a student exchange scheme.” The culture secretary said she was “quite horrified” that he had “chosen to do that” on the day.

Dive deeper

Britain rejoins the EU’s student-exchange programme in January, six years after leaving, paying £570m with a 30% discount that ministers say saves roughly £240m; applications open later this month, 18-year-olds get free rail passes, and more than 100,000 people are expected to benefit, with over £30m earmarked for young people in the North East, East Midlands and Yorkshire. Ms Nandy’s line in the release honoured those who served “by building the best opportunities for the next generation through closeness and collaboration with our allies”. Mr Hollinrake demanded she “withdraw this release and apologise”, saying “it is not a day for a Labour minister to try to make an EU membership pitch”; Nigel Farage called the timing “very, very poor taste” and the scheme “wildly expensive”. Ms Nandy invoked Churchill “extending the hand of friendship across Europe” and said: “There was a time where that wouldn’t have even raised an eyebrow as somehow political, it was just common sense — and it is common sense.” The spat is a trailer for the UK–EU summit in Brussels on 20 November. Watch whether the Conservatives make Erasmus a line of attack there.

Ministers poised to cut electric-car sales targets by a quarter

The government is expected to lower its zero-emission vehicle mandate this week, with a Downing Street meeting on Wednesday likely to approve a 2030 target of about 60% of new car sales instead of 80%, and to extend the scheme’s flexibilities to 2034. Battery cars made up 26.6% of sales in the first ten months of this year against a 33% requirement. Andy Burnham has recused himself because his wife advises a charging company; Louise Haigh chairs the meetings.

Dive deeper

The mandate currently steps up from 28% in 2025 and 33% in 2026 towards 80% by 2030, with all new cars zero-emission by 2035; the consultation offered options from no change down to 50%, and the cabinet split — Jonathan Reynolds favouring 50%, Heidi Alexander around 60%, Miatta Fahnbulleh and Ed Miliband holding at 80%. The policy is reckoned to deliver nearly 14% of all planned emissions cuts between 2028 and 2032, so the Climate Change Committee’s numbers will move with it. No 10 says no decision has been made and the eventual position will be “pragmatic and balanced”; a spokesperson repeated the commitment to end sales of cars relying solely on petrol and diesel by 2030. The industry is split too: the SMMT’s Mike Hawes warns of the mandate’s “heavy cost” to carmakers, while ChargeUK’s Shane Brennan says a cut “puts £1.7bn of charging infrastructure at risk” and would be “a third change in three years”. Kemi Badenoch called the mandate “well-meaning, but ultimately destructive”; Zack Polanski condemned a “shocking record of backsliding”. The timing is awkward: Jackdaw has been approved and the Treasury has trimmed more than £3bn from the energy department. Watch Wednesday.

Inquiry into white working-class pupils says whole society must act

The independent inquiry into white working-class educational outcomes launched its second phase on Monday, turning to early years and 14-to-19 education after its first report found the system “not serving the interests of white working-class children” and called for “once-in-a-generation reforms”. Its chair, Baroness Morris, said: “This isn’t just the responsibility of schools but calls for action from across society.” Lucy Powell, the education secretary, said she was “backing this independent inquiry”.

Dive deeper

Some 1.25 million young people in England are white British and on free school meals, and the inquiry believes the group falling behind is “likely to be substantially larger”. Commissioned in summer 2025 by the Star Academies trust with the Department for Education’s support, and co-chaired by Sir Hamid Patel, it reported in June that these pupils trail at every stage; Ms Powell said “too many white working-class children are falling behind at every stage of their education” and that “a child’s background should never mean opportunity belongs to someone else”. Sir Hamid called the new phase “the beginning of a sustained effort” whose ambition is “to turn evidence into action and action into lasting change”. The work lands as the government confronts nearly a million young people not in education, employment or training; Alan Milburn’s review, due this week, has already found that children who start school unready are nearly three times as likely to be Neet at 16 to 17. The TUC’s Paul Nowak says fixing youth unemployment is a “once in a generation chance” with no solution that is “cost-free”. Watch whether Milburn’s report adopts the inquiry’s framing or treats class as a proxy for poverty generally.

Rough sleeping at a year’s high as housing shortage strains Burnham pledge

There were 8,748 people sleeping rough in England in June, the most since November 2025 and nearly 1,000 more than in January, and only 15% of them had been found accommodation by the end of the month, the lowest share since August 2025. A record 135,600 households were in temporary accommodation in March. The homelessness minister, Florence Eshalomi, said: “We cannot force people off the streets.”

Dive deeper

Andy Burnham made ending rough sleeping “my first instruction” on 20 July, backing it with £442m for an “everyone in for Christmas” drive and a further £432m from March 2027. The temporary-accommodation total is about 90% higher than a decade ago and 4% up on the year, which is why charities say the pledge will founder without housing to move people into. The frozen local housing allowance is the “big sticking point”, Ms Eshalomi conceded: “I’ve been an MP since 2019. I’ve been raising it since then.” Nineteen charities including Trussell, the Joseph Rowntree Foundation and Shelter wrote to ministers before the budget to say the allowance, frozen since April 2024, now falls short of rents by a record 23.3%, around £200 a month in London and £100 elsewhere, and that ending the freeze would cost £1.7bn; JRF estimates renters will be £700 a year worse off by 2029 with 50,000 pushed into poverty. Probation officers warned on Saturday that early-release prisoners are being discharged onto the streets, with the next tranche due on Tuesday. Watch the Christmas count: the pledge is measured against it, and the June figure is the baseline.

One To Read How a bank collapse left millions in limbo and toppled Paraguay's president NPR · Ueno’s 2.9 million customers — about 60% of Paraguay’s adults — are still waiting for their money; NPR explains how one bank’s failure ended Santiago Peña’s presidency in a week.

Weekly Roundup

The stories that defined this week View roundup

Week of 2–8 November 2026

The Week In Numbers

Democrats took both houses of Congress on Tuesday, flipping seven Senate seats including Texas, Kansas, Ohio, Maine and South Carolina. They lead the House by at least 253 seats to 157, and the Senate stands at 54 to 44 with Alaska and Mississippi still counting, where Scott Colom led Cindy Hyde-Smith by fewer than 2,500 votes on Friday. In an election-day voter poll 63% said the United States was wrong to attack Iran. In Jerusalem, 67 members of the Knesset recommended Gadi Eisenkot to form a government against 46 for Benjamin Netanyahu, and Paraguay’s Senate removed Santiago Peña by 44 votes to nil.
The Bank of England raised Bank Rate to 4% on Thursday by eight votes to one, its first increase since August 2023, and now expects inflation, 3.5% in September, to peak at 4.9% next spring and return to the 2% target only in the third quarter of 2028. The rise adds about £31 a month to a typical tracker mortgage; 1.4 million households come off fixed deals in the next year, and the Resolution Foundation puts the average worker £390 worse off in real terms in 2027 than in 2025. House prices fell 0.6% in October to £296,285, the sharpest monthly drop since August 2023, with the average two-year fix at 5.97%. Sterling reached its strongest level since June 2016 on the Bank’s trade-weighted index.
The Nasdaq fell 5.5% on Thursday, its worst day since 2020, and about $2.5tn was wiped from global technology shares in a week in which the index lost 3.4% and the S&P 500 2.7%; Taiwan’s market had its worst week since 1991. Brent fell 16% to $98.32, below $100 for the first time since 7 October, while US payrolls rose 165,000 against a forecast of 59,000. More than 50 European flights were disrupted by hoax bomb threats; Russia’s strike on Komyshuvakha killed 53; a gunman killed six in Kraków, among them a British citizen; and Russell Brand was convicted of rape and three sexual assaults.

What Moved Forward

Democrats Sweep Congress and Trump Reaches for the Veto Pen

Geopolitical

Tuesday’s midterms ended Republican control of both chambers, something a midterm has done only three times since the Second World War. Kansas elected its first Democratic senator since 1932, James Talarico ended a 38-year drought in Texas and Susan Collins lost Maine after three decades; Hakeem Jeffries is set to be the first black Speaker in January. JD Vance said flatly that “the reason we lost is the war”, and Donald Trump, who called the assessment “largely true”, said he would “do it again”, posted a cap reading “VETO” and, on Friday, replaced Susie Wiles with Stephen Miller as chief of staff. Democrats are mapping oversight hearings and a war powers resolution. The president keeps his veto and his command of the armed forces, so this is a check rather than a change of course, but his judges will stop being confirmed and his nominees now need Democratic votes.

The Bank Moves First, and Says It May Not Be the Last

Markets

After eleven months on hold, the Monetary Policy Committee raised Bank Rate to 4% on Thursday, with Catherine Mann alone wanting half a point. The minutes attribute the move to the Middle East conflict, which pushed Brent to an average of $108 and UK gas to 216p a therm in the fortnight to 27 October, 38% and 81% above July’s assumptions. Andrew Bailey said the rise “should not be seen as the first in an inevitable long sequence of hikes”, but that without progress on the war he could “see the argument for a further increase”; Megan Greene said “additional hikes will likely be required”. The next decision is on 17 December. For the 87% of borrowers on fixed deals nothing changes until they remortgage; for 1.3 million on variable rates and 510,000 on trackers it changed on Thursday. Nationwide answered with a 5.3% members’ bond, a sign that savers, at least, are being competed for.

Herzog Passes Over Netanyahu and Hands Eisenkot the Mandate

Geopolitical

Israel’s election committee certified the result on Wednesday, rejecting Likud’s claim that Arab-led parties had “stolen” the vote, and the consultations that followed went decisively one way: 67 members of the Knesset, including the Joint List and Ra’am, recommended Gadi Eisenkot against 46 for Benjamin Netanyahu. President Herzog told Mr Eisenkot on Saturday night that he would receive the mandate, conferred at a ceremony today. He has 28 days, extendable by 14, to build a coalition, and a majority on paper is not a government: every Jewish party but one pledged before the vote not to govern with the Arab lists, and Mansour Abbas is still declining to call Hamas a terrorist organisation. Donald Trump’s polling-day announcement that American aid to Israel will end this year, which Mr Eisenkot learned of “through the media”, adds urgency. If he fails, the mandate passes back to Mr Netanyahu for four weeks.

Burnham’s Reset Week: North Sea, Settlement and a Draft Deal With Brussels

Domestic

The government legislated steadily while the prime minister was in Antigua. Shabana Mahmood’s settlement rules doubled the default wait for indefinite leave to remain to ten years, with a five-year route for those earning over £50,271 and for doctors, nurses and teachers; care workers already here were spared the fifteen-year wait after Angela Rayner’s objections, a concession the Conservatives called a surrender and Ms Mahmood declined to cost. The Energy Independence Bill removes the North Sea Transition Authority’s power to grant new oil and gas licences, scraps gas standing charges, which ministers say saves 60% of gas account holders about £45 a year, and seeds a £2bn energy wealth fund. Britain and the EU agreed a 200-page draft removing post-Brexit food checks, alongside texts on emissions trading and youth mobility for a summit on 20 November. Each is a bill or a draft rather than a law, but the direction is now set.

What Stalled

Hormuz: Strikes, Mines and a Qatari Plan Nobody Has Signed

Geopolitical

The week began with American “defensive” strikes on Qeshm island and ended with more: a “minor” attack on Friday, Task Force Iron Gate on Saturday extending the blockade to Iran’s land borders and the Caspian, and a US aircraft disabling the cargo ship Huda in the Gulf of Oman. Tehran answered by lifting its self-imposed 2,000km missile-range limit and restating its seven conditions. The Revolutionary Guard says tankers keep striking mines on the southern route, and UKMTO counted at least 11 ships attacked in the week to 6 November, three of them sunk, with transits roughly 65% below pre-war levels. Qatar’s “bridge deal”, under which Washington would lift its blockade and release part of $8bn in frozen assets while Iran reopened the strait and readmitted inspectors, is on the table but unaccepted, and satellite images show rebuilding at the Garmdareh and Shahroud missile sites. Oil fell 16% on the week anyway, on a bet that a chastened White House wants out. Donald Trump promised a decision “very soon”; he has said that before.

The AI Trade Cracks on a Vote About Data Centres

Markets

The rout was political before it was financial. Texas elected a governor, Gina Hinojosa, who promised “a moratorium, a ban, on all data center approvals”, 56% of voters told CNBC that AI and data centres shaped their vote, and Bernie Sanders demanded a national moratorium. On Thursday the Nasdaq lost 5.5%, the S&P 500 4.36% and the Dow 3.44%; Nvidia fell more than 9%, AMD and Micron more than 17%, and the seven largest technology companies shed a trillion dollars between them. Japan’s Nikkei dropped 6%, Seoul halted trading, and Taiwan had its worst week since 1991. A strong jobs report steadied Wall Street on Friday, but London did not join the relief: the FTSE 100 closed 1.01% lower at 10,673.94, more than 300 points off July’s record. The Nasdaq has now fallen four weeks running and sits more than 10% below its peak. Microsoft trimming its “neocloud” partners suggests the build-out is being rationed, not abandoned. For British savers in global trackers, the concentration risk flagged here last week has now been priced.

After Oleshky, the War Returns to Kyiv’s Power Grid

Geopolitical

The Kherson truce ended last Sunday and the week that followed showed what it had interrupted. On Monday nine 3,000kg glide bombs hit a school used as an aid point in Komyshuvakha, a second strike landing as survivors sheltered; the toll reached 53. On Friday night Russia fired 36 ballistic missiles, including North Korean KN-23s, and 172 drones at the Kyiv grid, and Ukraine intercepted four of the missiles. Diplomacy continued in parallel. Melania Trump hosted Russian and Ukrainian envoys at the White House, the first time a first lady has done so, Volodymyr Zelensky awarded her Ukraine’s highest honour for women, and the Kremlin confirmed it will attend US-brokered talks in Abu Dhabi on Tuesday and Wednesday, the first three-way round since February. Mr Zelensky’s verdict was pointed: “When Putin wants the fighting to stop, it stops.” Britain and France will rehearse a post-ceasefire deployment in Poland this month. The humanitarian corridor worked; the war it paused did not.

Decisions Deferred: Police Mergers, Parliament’s Repairs and the Ten-Year Plan

Domestic

Several large domestic questions moved no closer to an answer. Sir Mark Rowley warned that policing is “heading for failure” unless 43 forces become eight to ten, and England’s regional mayors turned on him within a day, Steve Rotheram calling it “the wolf of centralisation dressed up in sheep’s clothing”; Lord Hogan-Howe’s review remains unpublished and Andy Burnham, who ran Greater Manchester’s police as mayor, has not said where he stands. The Public Accounts Committee warned of a Notre-Dame-style fire at Westminster, with restoration now costed at up to £40bn and each year of delay adding £420m, yet the whips have set no date for a vote. Mr Burnham told The Economist his ten-year plan “may go into the new year” and that the Chagos deal must be “recast” to satisfy Washington. At PMQs Louise Haigh could not say when welfare spending will be cut, and the Commonwealth communiqué produced a “time-bound” dialogue on slavery with no date attached. The BMA’s window for averting a consultants’ strike on 25 November also ran down without a deal.

What To Watch Next Week

Abu Dhabi: The First Three-Way Talks Since February

Geopolitical

American, Russian and Ukrainian delegations meet in Abu Dhabi on Tuesday and Wednesday after two days of preparatory talks in Brussels with Britain, France, Germany, the EU and the World Bank. Moscow arrives having just struck Kyiv’s grid with 36 ballistic missiles; Kyiv arrives asking for written security guarantees and Patriot interceptors, and believing the midterms “may now grow” its chances of American help. Donald Trump has predicted “a big agreement” that “might involve all of Europe”. Watch whether Moscow offers to repeat the Oleshky model elsewhere, whether Washington puts guarantees in writing, and the intercept rate on the next ballistic salvo, which is the number that decides how Ukraine’s winter goes. Exercise Koalicja, the Anglo-French rehearsal for a post-ceasefire force, begins in Poland this month.

Trump’s Iran Decision, the Qatari Bridge and Monday’s Oil Open

Geopolitical

The president said on Thursday that Americans would know “very soon” whether he strikes Iran again, and the weekend brought a new task force rather than a decision. Doha insists its bridge deal is alive; Tehran insists on its seven conditions and has now removed the ceiling on its missile range. The Houthis fired three ballistic missiles at Riyadh and the Eastern Province on Sunday, opening a second Gulf front at the moment Washington tightens its blockade on the Houthis’ patron. Brent closed on Friday at $98.32 after a 16% fall on the bet that the midterms made a deal likelier; Rapidan Energy puts the odds of renewed fighting at 80%. Watch Monday’s open, any reply from Tehran to the Qatari text, and whether Senate Democrats move their war powers resolution before January. Gadi Eisenkot’s 28-day clock in Jerusalem runs alongside.

Brand Sentenced, Prisoners Released and the Consultants’ Final Fortnight

Domestic

Russell Brand is sentenced at Southwark Crown Court on Monday for one rape and three sexual assaults, with the Metropolitan Police investigating two further rape allegations and Sir Mark Rowley expecting “many, many more” complainants; his barrister has referred himself to the Bar Standards Board. On Tuesday the next tranche of early-release prisoners leaves custody, which the charity Pact says will test Andy Burnham’s Christmas pledge on rough sleeping, given that 14,360 leavers went straight onto the streets last year. The BMA’s window for averting a 48-hour consultants’ strike from 25 November is in its last two weeks; the Supreme Court’s judgment on the Palestine Action ban is pending with 1,200 prosecutions in limbo; and RMT Tube drivers strike from 26 November. Watch too for Mr Burnham’s answer on police mergers, and for the whips to name a date on Westminster’s repairs.

The Fed Repricing, the Last Two Senate Seats and the FTSE’s Nerve

Markets

Friday’s payrolls, 165,000 against 59,000 expected, pushed the odds of a Federal Reserve rate rise on 8–9 December to 76.8%, and traders will test whether Thursday’s rout was a correction or the start of something worse; the Nasdaq has fallen for four weeks and Micron lost more than 20% in the five days to Thursday. Mississippi must certify its Senate result by Friday, with no recount provision and Scott Colom ahead by about 2,500 votes; Alaska is still counting, and Stephen Miller takes over the West Wing on Monday. In London, lenders have begun repricing fixes, house prices are falling at the fastest rate in three years, and 2.3 million fixed deals expire in 2027. Watch gilt yields, which sat near 5.16% on Friday, and whether the FTSE 100’s 7.5% gain for the year survives another week of AI selling in New York.

One To Read This Weekend

Why the US Midterms Sparked an AI Stock Selloff

BBC News · The two stories that defined the week were one story. The BBC traces the line from Tuesday’s data-centre revolt at the ballot box, where 56% of voters said AI shaped their choice, to Thursday’s $2.5tn fall in global technology shares and Friday’s partial rebound. It asks whether the gold rush is ending or merely being checked, and why a vote in Texas reached pension statements in Britain.

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Morning Briefing

Sunday 8 November 2026 — 08:10 GMT

What It Means For You

The two-minute silence falls at 11am; the King leads the Cenotaph service, which is broadcast live on the BBC, ITV and Sky News, with about 10,000 veterans marching and 10,000 members of the public expected on Whitehall.
The Resolution Foundation reckons the Bank’s new forecast, not Thursday’s rate rise, is the real blow: inflation peaking at 4.9% next spring, 1.4 million households rolling off fixed mortgages in the next year and the average worker £390 worse off in real terms in 2027 than in 2025.
Consultants in England strike from 06:59 on 25 November to 06:59 on 27 November unless a deal is reached; hospitals will run Christmas Day-level cover, so expect planned appointments in that window to be rescheduled.

GEO Geopolitical

US extends Iran blockade to land routes; aircraft disables cargo ship

Central Command announced Task Force Iron Gate on Saturday “to prevent Iran from using ground routes to transport advanced weapons and other materials”, extending the months-long naval blockade to Iran’s land borders and the Caspian Sea. Hours later a US aircraft fired “precision munitions at the stern” of the St Kitts-flagged M/V Huda in the Gulf of Oman after it tried repeatedly to run the blockade. Iranian state media reported explosions on Qeshm island and at Jask, Sirik and Bandar Abbas overnight.

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Admiral Brad Cooper said the Tampa-based task force would reinforce “the success of our ironclad blockade against Iran at sea”; CENTCOM says enforcement since July has redirected 147 compliant vessels and disabled five that refused. The Huda is the first confirmed strike on a merchant ship in nearly a month. UKMTO counted at least 11 ships attacked in and around Hormuz in the week to 6 November, three of them sunk, with transits roughly 65% below pre-conflict levels; Iran’s IRGC Navy said two tankers hit mines on Saturday and the UAE rescued 22 crew from a burning cargo vessel. Qatar’s two-day “bridge deal” — blockade lifted and funds released in exchange for IAEA access and a reopened strait — remains on the table but unaccepted.

IRGC lifts self-imposed 2,000km limit on ballistic missile range

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said on Saturday that the range restriction it had long cited to reassure Europe no longer applies. “This limitation has been lifted for us,” its spokesman Hossein Mohebbi told reporters in Tehran, adding that Iran would “demonstrate these capabilities in practice” rather than make statements. The announcement followed Mojtaba Khamenei’s order for an unrestrained response to any future US or Israeli threat.

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The 2,000km envelope already covered the Arabian Peninsula, the Levant, most of Egypt and parts of Greece and the Balkans; Iran is reported to have attempted a strike on Diego Garcia, some 4,000km away, in March. Mr Mohebbi said the IRGC would soon unveil another underground “missile city” and that preparations would be made if Iran chose to alter its nuclear doctrine. Foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said he had spoken to 12 counterparts in 48 hours, including Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, restating Tehran’s seven conditions for reopening Hormuz. The IAEA puts Iran’s stock of 60%-enriched uranium at 440.9kg.

Gunman kills six in Kraków square, including a British citizen

A 25-year-old Polish man opened fire with an automatic weapon from a moving car in Kraków’s Main Market Square at about 3pm local time on Saturday, killing four women and two men and wounding 16, among them two police officers and five foreigners. Polish police said one of the dead was a British citizen. Interior minister Marcin Kierwiński said: “Everything indicates he was fascinated by far-right ideologies.”

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Poland’s defence minister called it an “act of terror”. Late on Saturday Donald Tusk confirmed three bodies, believed to be the suspect’s parents and sister, had been found at his home in Ostrowiec Šwiętokrzyski. The suspect was shot by police and taken to hospital; further weapons and ammunition were found in his vehicle. Mr Tusk praised the two wounded officers as “true heroes” who “likely saved lots of lives while risking their own lives”. The injured include nationals of Austria, Germany, Portugal, Russia and Britain. Kraków has declared mourning until 11 November; legally held firearms in Poland passed one million this year after a record 50,700 permits in 2025.

Russia fires 36 ballistic missiles at Kyiv energy grid before Abu Dhabi talks

Russia struck power infrastructure around Kyiv overnight on Friday with 36 ballistic missiles, including North Korean KN-23s, and 172 drones; Ukraine’s air force intercepted only four of the missiles. The Northern Bridge over the Dnipro was damaged and at least two people were killed across the country. “The capital is facing serious difficulties with its electricity, water, and heat supplies,” Volodymyr Zelenskyy said, with temperatures near freezing.

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The energy ministry said lines carrying power from two nuclear plants to Kyiv and the central regions were hit, with substations struck in five other regions. Mr Zelenskyy accused Moscow of “preparing for trilateral talks by launching ballistic missiles at Ukraine’s critical infrastructure” — US-brokered talks between Moscow and Kyiv are due in Abu Dhabi on Tuesday — and appealed for Patriot interceptors, saying “the United States is in the best position to help address it”. Moscow said it targeted military-industrial, energy and transport sites. Air defences downed 149 of the 172 drones; the four-in-36 missile intercept rate is the watchpoint for the winter.

Saudi coalition downs three Houthi ballistic missiles aimed at Riyadh

The Saudi-led coalition said on Sunday its air defences destroyed three ballistic missiles fired by Yemen’s Houthis, two of them towards Riyadh and one towards the Eastern Province, according to spokesman Major-General Turki al-Maliki. The Houthi-run health ministry said 33 people, including 13 children, were killed by coalition strikes on the village of al-Shariyah near Sanaa on Saturday; the claim could not be independently verified.

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Fighting has intensified since Yemen’s government launched its Dawn of Yemen offensive last month to retake Houthi-held territory including Sanaa. Houthi spokesman Yahya Saree claimed 105 coalition strikes in 24 hours across eight governorates and 4,369 since the escalation began. The UN says more than 1,600 people have been killed and almost 300,000 displaced since the 2022 ceasefire collapsed in July after the Houthis declared a blockade of Saudi ports. The missiles on Riyadh open a second Gulf front at the moment Washington is tightening its own blockade on Iran, the Houthis’ patron.

UK UK Domestic Politics

King leads two-minute silence at the Cenotaph on Remembrance Sunday

The King leads the nation in the two-minute silence at the National Service of Remembrance this morning, joined by the Royal Family, the Prime Minister and senior politicians. About 10,000 veterans from more than 300 organisations take part in the Royal British Legion’s March Past. Andy Burnham said Remembrance Sunday “gives us an opportunity to mark sacrifice and offer gratitude”.

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Culture secretary Lisa Nandy said: “It is our duty to ensure that the immense courage of those who have served is never forgotten.” Defence secretary Wes Streeting added: “We have a moral duty to stand by our veterans and military families who sacrifice so much.” The service is broadcast live on the BBC, ITV and Sky News, with about 10,000 members of the public expected on Whitehall. It is the first Remembrance Sunday of the Burnham premiership and comes with British forces committed in the Gulf for a ninth month.

Burnham writes to councils to house rough-sleeping veterans by Christmas

The Prime Minister is writing personally to every council in England asking for specific plans to offer accommodation to veterans sleeping rough before Christmas. “No one who has served our country should be left to sleep rough on our streets,” Mr Burnham said. The Reducing Veteran Homelessness programme allocates £8.7m to eight organisations, including Veteran Housing Scotland, SSAFA, Launchpad and Wigan Council.

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Downing Street links the drive to the £874m extra for rough sleeping announced in last week’s Budget, taking total funding to a record £4.4bn, and to the Armed Forces Covenant. The veterans’ helpline is said to have already supported more than 1,250 ex-service personnel into housing. The pledge lands the weekend after the Resolution Foundation warned that the Bank’s forecast of falling real pay would hit renters and social tenants hardest, and amid Guardian reporting yesterday that early-release prisoners are swelling street homelessness; councils will be asked to deliver with money already committed.

Opinium: Labour 28, Reform 21, Conservatives 20 as Greens climb to 11

Labour holds a seven-point lead over Reform UK in Opinium’s poll for the Observer, though both fell — Labour to 28% and Reform to 21% — with the Conservatives unchanged on 20% and the Greens up three to 11%. Andy Burnham’s net approval slipped two points to +5; Kemi Badenoch stands at -1, Nigel Farage at -27 and Zack Polanski at -30.

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Asked to choose a prime minister, respondents prefer Mr Burnham to Ms Badenoch by 41% to 22% and to Mr Farage by 47% to 22%. The fieldwork, 4–6 November among 2,050 adults, straddles Thursday’s rate rise. Ipsos’s October poll had Labour on 32% with the Conservatives second on 24% and Reform on 20% — its largest Labour lead since June 2025 — yet only 30% there thought the government deserved re-election against 47% who did not. Keiran Pedley of Ipsos cautioned that “the lesson of the last year is the British politics is volatile”.

Resolution Foundation: Bank forecast means £390 real pay cut by 2027

The Bank of England’s new outlook, not Thursday’s quarter-point rise to 4%, is where “the real danger lies”, the Resolution Foundation says. Inflation is forecast to peak at 4.9% next spring and not return to target until the third quarter of 2028; private-sector real earnings fall 0.5% next year, leaving the average worker £390 worse off in 2027 than in 2025. Some 1.4 million households roll off fixed mortgages over the next year.

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The Bank’s MPC voted 8–1 on 4 November, with Catherine Mann preferring a half-point rise; its summary says CPI, 3.5% in September, “is now expected to rise to around 5% by the middle of next year” and that policy “is not on a pre-set path”. Andrew Bailey said that without “real progress towards settling the conflict in the Middle East” he could “see the argument for a further increase in rates”. Fixed mortgage rates rose about a percentage point before the Bank moved, costing a typical first-time buyer £140 a month; the national mortgage interest bill is projected at £72bn in 2027. Growth is expected to average 1.1% over two years.

Consultants’ 48-hour strike on 25 November nears as BMA deadline runs

Senior doctors in England will walk out from 06:59 on 25 November to 06:59 on 27 November unless Yvette Cooper intervenes, in the first consultants’ action since 2023. The BMA consultants committee co-chairs, Helen Neary and Shanu Datta, said ministers had “kicked the can down the road” and that “that road has now run out”. Hospitals would provide Christmas Day-level cover for the two days.

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The dispute dates from May 2025 and the strike mandate from a July ballot; the dates were set after the government recommended a 2.4% rise for all doctors in 2027/28 to the pay review body, below forecast inflation. The co-chairs said the government had “four weeks to avoid any action taking place” — a window now in its final fortnight. Consultants and SAS doctors in Scotland are being balloted, and Northern Ireland faces consultant strikes on 23–24 November and resident doctors’ action on 20–21 November. With the Bank forecasting inflation near 5%, the pay-review offer is the pressure point.

One To Read

Qeshm Island and Hormuz hit, as mediators try to prevent US-Iran escalation — Al Jazeera’s Tehran-datelined dispatch sets the weekend’s strikes, the lifted missile-range limit and the UKMTO shipping data against the “pendulum swing between war and negotiations”, and explains why the midterms may have removed Washington’s incentive to deal.

☼

Morning Briefing

Saturday 7 November 2026 — 08:09 GMT

What It Means For You

Thursday’s rate rise reaches your pocket fastest if you are one of 1.3 million on a variable mortgage; if you are a saver, Nationwide’s 5.3% members-only bond and easy-access accounts near 5% mean it pays to move cash now.
New US strikes on Iran and a Qatari plan to reopen Hormuz pull in opposite directions on oil: Brent ended the week at $98 after a 16% fall, so Monday’s open will decide whether the recent easing at the pump continues.
The fight over merging England’s 43 police forces into eight to ten is now a mayors-versus-Met contest for Andy Burnham to settle; whichever way he goes will decide who you call, and who answers, for the next decade.

GEO Geopolitical

Trump orders ‘minor’ strikes on Iran as Qatar pushes Hormuz deal

American forces struck an Iranian air-defence site on Qeshm island on Friday, the first attack since the midterms. “They built a little bit of an anti-aircraft device and we knocked it out in about 15 minutes, maybe five,” Donald Trump told reporters in West Palm Beach, adding: “We are talking to Iran. We have been.” Qatar is circulating a plan: the US lifts its naval blockade, Iran reopens the Strait of Hormuz and admits nuclear inspectors.

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Iranian state media reported two explosions in the Suza area of Qeshm and claimed air defences downed an American MQ-9 drone, a claim no other source confirms. Central Command called the situation “relatively calm”. The Qatari prime minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, told an Oxford audience the crisis “cannot be left unresolved” and that US officials “have very genuine intentions to find a way to contain the situation and de-escalate it”; on Saturday Doha dismissed reports the talks had failed as claims that “serve only those seeking to prolong the war”. Under the plan, Washington would release part of $8bn in frozen assets and Iran would admit International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors on the basis of the abandoned Cairo agreement of September 2025, using a shipping route already agreed with Oman; Tehran’s preconditions include an end to the Lebanon war, sanctions relief and reparations, and a $300bn reconstruction fund is mooted. The stakes for Britain are at the pump: 10.23 million barrels a day passed through the strait in October, and Brent, though down 16% on the week, closed at $98.32. Watch Monday’s oil open for the market’s verdict on “minor”.

Trump makes Stephen Miller chief of staff as Susie Wiles departs

Donald Trump has replaced Susie Wiles with Stephen Miller, the architect of his immigration crackdown, as White House chief of staff three days after the midterm defeat. “Sometimes in life you have to make moves,” the president said; Mr Miller, 41, starts on Monday and Ms Wiles moves to his political operation. Hakeem Jeffries called the appointment “a dangerous xenophobe and reckless extremist who has American blood on his hands”; Chuck Schumer said Mr Trump “learned nothing from his historic defeat”.

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Mr Trump announced the change on Truth Social, calling Mr Miller “one of my most trusted advisors” and praising Ms Wiles, 69, the longest-serving of the five chiefs of staff he has had, for “an outstanding job”; she is reported to have resigned on Thursday night after the president chafed at stories of her allies landing consulting work. “Stephen’s been with me from the beginning. He gets it,” he said. Mr Miller, who designed the first-term travel ban and family separations and called a protester an “assassin” before retracting it, wrote that he was “honored beyond words” and that the mission was to “fight with all of our soul”. The choice cuts against the post-election mood: 58% of voters told pollsters the administration’s immigration enforcement had “gone too far”, and JD Vance said on Wednesday he was open to shifting enforcement towards employers. Republican dissent is audible — Thom Tillis has called Mr Miller “incompetent” and Congressman Marlin Stutzman said he should have been fired — while Mike Lee hailed “a true conservative warrior”. Democrats who take over the oversight committees in January told him to “lawyer up”. Watch the first clash with the new Congress over immigration funding.

Paraguay’s Peña impeached 44–0 and placed under house arrest

Paraguay’s Senate voted 44 to nil on Friday to remove Santiago Peña from office over the collapse of Ueno bank, and prosecutors arrested him at his home minutes later on suspicion of illicit enrichment, money laundering and influence peddling. Pedro Alliana, the vice-president, was sworn in to serve until 2028 and promised depositors would be “fully compensated”. Around three million people — about 60% of adults — remain unable to reach savings and pensions frozen in the bank.

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Mr Peña, a 47-year-old economist, resigned on Thursday but senators impeached him anyway, finding he had tolerated conflicts of interest, manipulated regulators, diverted pension funds and joined a cover-up involving the central bank, whose governor — a former Ueno chief executive — is also named in the arrest warrant. The lower house had voted 78–0; the Senate refused him 72 more hours by 39 votes to three. Ueno was the country’s fifth-largest bank by deposits and held some $800m of public money, with estimates of state and pension exposure running to $860m; at least 27 people face charges, six directors are in pre-trial detention and nine luxury cars were towed from the lead shareholder’s home. Mr Peña, who held about $1m of the bank’s shares until April 2025, told supporters: “It was never my intention to betray the trust you placed in me”; his lawyer called the case “irresponsible and opportunistic”. He is to be questioned on Saturday. Horacio Cartes, the former president who leads the ruling Colorado party, backed removal “to restore the republic’s institutions”. One estimate puts the fall in retail sales as high as 80%. Watch whether the compensation promise survives contact with the budget.

Wall Street steadies as US adds 165,000 jobs; FTSE closes 1% down

The Nasdaq rose 1.1% and the S&P 500 0.3% on Friday after Thursday’s rout, helped by an October jobs report showing 165,000 posts added against a forecast of 59,000 and unemployment falling to 4.1%. The Dow slipped 0.4%. London did not share the relief: the FTSE 100, down as much as 2.35% during the day, closed 1.01% lower, and Brent crude fell 16% over the week to settle at $98.32.

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The payroll figures reset the American debate. The two previous months were revised up by 84,000 between them, hourly earnings rose 0.4% on the month and 3.1% on the year, and traders priced a 76.8% chance that the Federal Reserve raises rates at its 8–9 December meeting. Allianz’s Dan North called it “a really, really good report”; Principal’s Seema Shah saw “a strong rebuttal to fears that the economy is heading into a meaningful slowdown”. Yet the underemployment rate climbed to 7.9% and the average spell out of work reached 27.1 weeks, the longest since September 2021. In equities the damage is far from repaired: the Nasdaq sits more than 10% below its peak and is up about 6% on the year, while the FTSE 100, still up roughly 7.5% in 2026, is more than 300 points off July’s record. Microsoft, meanwhile, is trimming its roster of “neocloud” data-centre partners and did not renew a deal with Oracle, a sign the AI build-out is being rationed rather than abandoned. AJ Bell’s Dan Coatsworth framed the question for Monday: “whether the tech trade is going down the pan or fighting back”.

Bomb hoaxes top 50 flights this week as Ireland sees ‘coordinated campaign’

At least 18 more flights to or from Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czechia, France, Hungary, Italy, Portugal, Romania and Britain were disrupted by hoax bomb threats on Friday, taking the week’s total past 50, and Dublin’s broadcasters were evacuated after emails warning of bombs. The Irish government said “it seems likely that this is a coordinated campaign of disruption”; investigators have found no evidence of a hostile state behind it, and nobody has been arrested.

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Nine of Friday’s flights touched Prague, four crossed France, two were bound for Sofia and a Ryanair service from Lisbon to Rome was searched; Hungary scrambled fighter jets three times. Even so, Eurocontrol counted the day’s disruptions at 0.0674% of the 26,709 flights over Europe. An email to news outlets promised “this is only the beginning”, though the misogynist Russian group named in Thursday’s Italian threats, Male State, mocked any suggestion it was involved, and the Taoiseach, Micheál Martin, said it was not yet known whether individuals or a coordinated attacker were responsible, adding: “It shows how relatively simple it can be to cause disruption and undermine the normal operation of society.” Giorgia Meloni asked whether the hoaxes and cyber-attacks on refrigeration systems in at least seven countries were connected, saying “what is under attack are civilian infrastructures”. Armed gardaí were sent to RTÉ. The pattern has grown daily since one UK–Bulgaria flight on Monday; Thursday’s count is given as 14 by Eurocontrol and 21 by the Taoiseach, and Friday’s as 11 by the EU transport commissioner, so totals depend on the cut-off hour. Watch for the first arrest and Dublin’s summit security next week.

UK UK Domestic Politics

Brand inquiry widens as barrister reports himself over courtroom clash

The Metropolitan Police are investigating two further rape allegations against Russell Brand and will begin sifting reports about other potential victims next week, with detectives reported to fear the eventual number could reach double figures. Sir Mark Rowley said: “I wouldn’t be surprised if many, many more come forward.” Brand’s barrister, Ian Winter KC, has referred himself to the Bar Standards Board after telling a Sunday Times journalist outside court: “Well, it wasn’t. You fucked it.”

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Brand, 51, was convicted on Thursday of raping a 21-year-old fan at his London home in 2009 and sexually assaulting three women between 2004 and 2009; he is remanded until sentencing on Monday. The exchange with Rosamund Urwin took place outside the courtroom after she said she was “pleased justice has been done”. Mr Winter said on Friday that his “professional duty requires me to self-report those allegations to the Bar Standards Board, so the matter can be subject to proper scrutiny”. One of the two new complainants is understood to have been 16 at the time. The commissioner, who said the defence’s line that complainants had not “resisted or screamed” came “very close to victim-blaming”, would not confirm the double-figures estimate. Downing Street said Andy Burnham believes a legal duty on judges to warn juries about rape myths “should be examined”; pressed on his supportive 2014 tweet about Brand, he said he “had no idea of the full extent of what he was doing”. Lisa Nandy called the verdict “a wake-up call” for media and entertainment, where “the power imbalances are huge”. Watch Monday’s sentence and whether prosecutors revisit two allegations that earlier failed the evidential test.

Variable-rate borrowers feel Thursday’s rise as savers are offered 5.3%

Around 1.3 million households on variable-rate mortgages are the first to pay for the Bank of England’s quarter-point rise to 4%, while one borrower coming off a 1.4% five-year fix faces paying about £200 a month more at the best two-year rate of 5.69%. Nationwide, by contrast, is offering members a 30-month bond at 5.3%, which it calls market-leading, on up to £10,000. StepChange says requests for debt help are up 20% this year.

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Most mortgage holders are insulated for now: 87% of outstanding home loans are fixed, and only about 510,000, or 6%, are trackers that move immediately. But the pain is concentrated. A tiler in Halifax on a £45,000 household income sees repayments rise “roughly £45”; a Shropshire paramedic with £52,000 of debt is paying £760 for his mortgage and some £300 a month to creditors; a couple near Ipswich who fixed at 1.4% in January 2022 found 5.69% the best refix available. The governor said Thursday’s move “shouldn’t be seen as the first in an inevitable long sequence of hikes”. For savers the arithmetic runs the other way: Nationwide’s bond, open to its 19 million members who held a qualifying account by 2 November, pays £1,381 on £10,000 over the term, and some easy-access accounts already pay close to 5%. Flagstone’s Katie Horne cautions that a single quarter-point rise “isn’t expected to move fixed rates much further”. The squeeze tightens in January, when the Ofgem price cap rises almost 25% to about £2,150, against which 20 million households will get the £100 energy payment. Watch whether lenders reprice fixes before the Bank’s December meeting.

Northern mayors call Met chief’s ‘super-force’ plan a threat to local policing

England’s regional mayors have turned on Sir Mark Rowley’s proposal to merge the 43 police forces into eight to ten, a day after his speech warning that policing is “heading for failure”. Liverpool’s Steve Rotheram called it “the wolf of centralisation dressed up in sheep’s clothing”; the North East’s Kim McGuinness said “the Met is not in a position to preach to northern police forces”. The mayors want any new forces drawn on their own boundaries.

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The commissioner told his audience on Friday that “we have 43 overstretched forces trying to do too much, with too little”, that police funding has fallen from 0.9% to 0.7% of GDP, and that standing still “looks like a degradation of policing day by day”. The mayors see a power grab. York and North Yorkshire’s David Skaith said he would “not be lectured” and added: “Let’s not sit here and say the Met has a fantastic track record. It certainly does not.” Greater Manchester’s Bev Craig said local accountability “at a geographic level that makes sense, works”; Ms McGuinness insisted “this is not a choice between neighbourhood policing and specialist capability”. Not every chief agrees: Greater Manchester’s Stephen Watson calls the status quo “decline by design”. Lord Hogan-Howe’s review for Shabana Mahmood, commissioned in January and still unpublished, is understood to canvass between nine and 18 forces, and the Treasury has told police to expect no extra money. Andy Burnham, who ran Greater Manchester’s police as mayor, has yet to say where he stands; one mayor expects him to settle on roughly half the present number. Watch for his response.

Early-release prisoners sleeping rough up 130% in three years, charity finds

The number of prisoners released into rough sleeping has risen 130% in three years, from 6,040 in 2022–23 to 14,360 in 2025–26, according to the prison charity Pact, as probation officers warn that the next tranche of early releases on 10 November will send more people straight onto the streets. About one in seven leavers now has no fixed abode, up from around one in ten. Napo’s Tania Bassett said: “There is very little available and it is a big concern for our members.”

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The warning collides with Andy Burnham’s pledge, backed by £874m, to end rough sleeping, and with a government promise that anyone on the streets will be offered a route off them by Christmas. Ms Bassett described “this juxtaposition of releasing people into homelessness at the same time as Andy Burnham is saying we’re going to solve rough sleeping”. Pact’s analysis of Ministry of Justice data shows the share of releases recorded as “no fixed abode” rising from 11.3% to 15.9%; one charity leader calls the absence of money for people leaving custody the scheme’s “fatal flaw”. Early release was expanded to ease prison overcrowding, with tranches let out at fixed points in their sentences; councils have a statutory duty to those at risk of homelessness, but no duty to house every leaver. A government spokesperson said: “We’re working with councils and charities to tackle prison leaver homelessness, backed by record investment in probation and our drive to ensure anyone sleeping rough is offered a route off the streets or wider support by Christmas.” The figures rest on Pact’s reading of official data; watch the 10 November release and whether the Christmas pledge is measured against it.

Hoyle: Parliament restoration delays ‘frustrating’ as cost estimate hits £40bn

The Commons Speaker, Sir Lindsay Hoyle, says MPs are “putting ourselves in handcuffs” by endlessly surveying the Palace of Westminster instead of repairing it, days after the Public Accounts Committee called this “crunch time” for a restoration that could cost up to £40bn and take 61 years, with each year of delay adding £420m. “Why don’t we start repairing the building?” he asked. Whips have discussed a vote by the new year but set no date.

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The committee warned, with Notre-Dame in mind, that the mist fire-suppression system does not yet cover the most historic parts of the building. MPs are to be asked to approve up to £3bn of initial works and narrow down four current options, with a final decision due by 2030. “We spend more time doing surveys,” Sir Lindsay said on Radio 4’s Week in Westminster, calling the failure to begin “my biggest frustration”. The debate has outlived four prime ministers: the risk of a catastrophic fire is documented in successive reports, while the politics of spending tens of billions on MPs’ workplace during a cost-of-living squeeze has deterred every government from deciding. Andy Burnham, who has made devolution and “moving power out of London” a theme, has not said whether Parliament should decant to another city during the works, an option some MPs favour. Watch for the whips to name a date; if the vote slips past the new year, the committee’s £420m-a-year meter keeps running.

One To Read Why the US midterms sparked an AI stock selloff BBC News · Is the AI gold rush ending or is this a reality check? The BBC traces the line from Tuesday’s data-centre ballot measures to Thursday’s $2.5tn Nasdaq fall and Friday’s partial rebound.

☼

Morning Briefing

Friday 6 November 2026 — 13:17 GMT

What It Means For You

If you have a pension or an ISA, Thursday’s Wall Street rout and Friday’s falls in Asia and London will show up in your next statement; the FTSE 100 is still up almost 7% this year, and the Nasdaq about 4.6%, so this is a correction from a high, not a wipe-out.
House prices fell 0.6% in October and the average two-year fix is near 6%: if your deal ends in 2027, as 2.3 million do, budget for a higher rate now rather than hoping Thursday’s rise is reversed quickly.
Salaries on job adverts will become a legal duty; until the bill arrives, the government is urging firms to publish now, so expect more pay ranges in listings this winter and ask for the figure if one is missing.

GEO Geopolitical

Global stocks plunge as AI rout spreads to Asia and London

Trillions of dollars were wiped off technology shares after the Nasdaq fell 5.5% on Thursday, the S&P 500 4.36% and the Dow 3.44%, on fears that the new Democratic Congress will curb data-centre building. Japan’s Nikkei closed 6% lower on Friday, South Korea halted trading after the Kospi fell more than 8% before ending down 6%, and the FTSE 100 was 1.9% lower by mid-morning, heading for its worst day since March.

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Nvidia lost more than 9% on Thursday, AMD and Micron more than 17% and SanDisk 22%; the seven largest US technology companies shed a trillion dollars between them in one session, and the Vix volatility gauge jumped by more than 60%. The trigger was political. Bernie Sanders posted: “Americans don’t want Big Tech oligarchs wrecking the environment, gutting jobs and threatening humanity’s future. NATIONAL DATA CENTER MORATORIUM NOW.” Texas, home to 27% of planned American data-centre capacity, has elected a governor, Gina Hinojosa, who promised “a moratorium, a ban, on all data center approvals”, and a CNBC voter poll found 56% of voters called AI and data centres a crucial or major factor in how they voted. Donald Trump blamed the “Dumocrats”: “So sad to see, you only have yourselves to blame!” In Asia, SoftBank fell about 11%, Taiwan closed down 4.5% for a 12.2% weekly loss, its worst since 1991, and Chinese state funds bought shares to steady the market. Goldman Sachs’s Timothy Moe said: “The market’s tendency is always to shoot first and ask questions later.” The Nasdaq remains about 4.6% up on the year. Watch the US jobs report at 13:30 GMT.

Bomb hoaxes hit Dublin newsrooms as flight threats enter fourth day

RTÉ, the Irish Independent, Newstalk and Today FM were evacuated in Dublin on Friday after emailed bomb threats, and Sky in London said it had received a security threat, as the wave of hoaxes against European aviation spread to the media. At least 17 flights were disrupted by midday, Hungary scrambled fighter jets three times, France reported four new threats against aircraft in its airspace and Prague airport said nine flights were affected. No government has attributed the campaign.

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The hoaxes began with one UK–Bulgaria flight on Monday, seven planes on Tuesday and, on Thursday, aircraft departing from 16 countries: Ireland’s Taoiseach, Micheál Martin, put Thursday’s tally at 21 flights, while a Reuters count reached 27. Friday’s diversions included a Wizz Air Prague–Rome service sent to Venice, a Ryanair Lisbon–Rome flight searched by Portuguese police and a Tarom Prague–Bucharest flight escorted by Hungarian jets. The first email, sent at 07:21 on Thursday to Rome’s airport operator from an address apparently linked to Colombia’s state health service in Bogotá, claimed to come from Male State, a misogynist Russian group banned in 2021, and promised attacks on Italy’s “feminist regime”; its founder’s channel told the BBC the group “hasn’t existed for many years”. Italy’s defence minister, Guido Crosetto, called it a “strategy to increase chaos”. Ireland’s deputy premier, Simon Harris, described “a very serious and evolving situation” and said “we don’t yet know who is responsible”, with Dublin due to host a European summit next week. Eurocontrol expected 26,709 flights over Europe on Friday; a security consultant put each diversion’s cost at up to $250,000. Watch for the first arrest.

Trump promises Iran decision ‘very soon’ as satellites show missile-base rebuilding

Donald Trump told reporters in the Oval Office that he would decide shortly whether to strike Iran again: “I would prefer not to destroy what is left of the country, if possible, but I may have to do so. You will know very soon.” Satellite images analysed for the BBC show significant new construction near at least two major missile sites, at Garmdareh and Shahroud, and the Financial Times reports Russia agreed in 2024 to supply Iran with 90 helicopter-borne missile launchers.

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Mr Trump said Iran would need “25 years to rebuild the country” and asked: “Do we want to go further … and ensure that this will never happen again?” He also telephoned Qatar’s emir, through whom Iran has passed a nuclear proposal to Washington. The imagery, reviewed by the British intelligence firm MAIAR and former CIA and Irish military analysts, shows a new portal to an underground facility, repairs at a dozen other military sites and fresh excavation near Fordo, which the Pentagon had claimed to have largely destroyed. The Russian launchers, built for the Mi-28 helicopters Iran already flies, were ordered from a state manufacturer for a buyer coded “K-10”; neither report could establish delivery, and the arms analyst Hanna Notte called them “operationally helpful but not the game changer in this war”. Vladimir Putin received Iran’s security chief, Mohsen Rezaei, in Moscow on Thursday. The Revolutionary Guard said two tankers “struck mines” near Hormuz; maritime authorities confirmed only an explosion at a tanker’s waterline. Rapidan Energy’s Bob McNally puts the odds of renewed fighting at 80%; Brent was near $97 on Friday.

Melania Trump hosts Russian and Ukrainian envoys, urges lasting truce

Melania Trump brought Kremlin envoy Kirill Dmitriev, Ukrainian MP Davyd Arakhamia and the two countries’ human-rights ombudsmen to the White House on Thursday, the first time a first lady has hosted representatives of two warring states, and handed over letters for Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky. “Together, we can create something more enduring than a temporary ceasefire,” she said, after a six-day truce around Oleshky in Kherson allowed nearly 800 civilians to leave.

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“The lives of innocent people must transcend the division of war. I hope Oleshky inspires greater peace,” Mrs Trump said; the truce ran from 27 October to 1 November, and she received Ukraine’s Order of Princess Olga. Donald Trump met Mr Dmitriev separately, not the Ukrainians, and predicted “a big agreement” that “might involve all of Europe”, adding: “I think we’re going to be very close to settling Russia-Ukraine.” Mr Zelensky’s response was pointed: “When Putin wants the fighting to stop, it stops.” In a television interview late on Thursday he pressed Western allies for written post-war security guarantees — “If Russia starts again, what will happen? Who will do what, with what means, and when?” — and said Ukraine’s chances of more American help “may now grow” after the midterms. Two days of talks in Brussels with the United States, Britain, France, Germany, the EU and the World Bank precede three-way negotiations in Abu Dhabi next week, the first since February. The war has not paused: the toll from Monday’s strike on Komyshuvakha in Zaporizhzhia rose to 53, and Russia launched 227 drones overnight. Watch Abu Dhabi for whether Moscow repeats Oleshky elsewhere.

Mississippi and Alaska Senate races within 2,000 votes; Hegseth and Rubio stay

Democrat Scott Colom led Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith by just over 1,800 votes in Mississippi on Friday with about 3,600 mail ballots outstanding, and Mary Peltola was around 600 ahead of Dan Sullivan in Alaska, as the last two Senate contests stayed uncalled. In the House Democrats led 253 to 157 with 25 seats open. The White House dismissed as “fake news” reports that Marco Rubio and Pete Hegseth would leave after the Republican defeat.

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Mississippi, which has not sent a Democrat to the Senate since 1982 and does not allow recounts, must certify by 13 November; Republicans have asked for affidavit ballots to be preserved, which Mr Colom’s camp called “a desperate stunt”. In Kansas Democrat Cindy Holscher led for governor by several thousand votes out of more than a million. Donald Trump said Mr Hegseth had “done a fantastic job” and that he had “every intention” of keeping him; Mr Rubio told the New York Times staying had “always been my plan”. The Republican congressman Thomas Massie intends to file an impeachment resolution against the defence secretary early next week. Mr Trump posted: “I JUST WASN’T ON THE BALLOT. IF I WERE, WE WOULD HAVE WON IN A LANDSLIDE!” Elsewhere, Nithya Raman, backed by the Democratic Socialists, beat Karen Bass for Los Angeles mayor with just over 52% of the vote; Judge Tanya Chutkan imposed a 14-day pause on Mr Trump’s 250ft triumphal arch after the planning commission approved it 8–4; and he signed an order declaring the Oval Office a national monument that cannot be “ripped down by stupid people”.

UK UK Domestic Politics

House prices fall 0.6% in October, steepest drop in three years

The average UK home cost £296,285 in October, down 0.6% on September and 1.2% on a year earlier, according to Lloyds, whose index recorded its fourth monthly fall in a row and the sharpest since August 2023. Economists had pencilled in a 0.1% rise. The lender’s mortgages director, Andrew Asaam, said renewed inflation “driven in part by the conflict in the Middle East” was “keeping borrowing costs high and adding to the squeeze on household finances”.

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The figures landed a day after the Bank of England raised Bank Rate to 4%, its first increase in three years, and they show the strain already in the system before that move: the average two-year fixed mortgage is 5.97% and the five-year 5.99%, mortgage approvals fell to 53,443 in September, the fewest since December 2023, and Rightmove on Friday cut its growth guidance after buyer demand dropped 10% and agreed sales 9%. The pain is southern. Greater London prices are 3.1% lower than a year ago at £524,892, with the south-east and south-west both down 2.4%, while Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales are still rising. Mr Asaam argued against alarm: “House prices have changed relatively little over the past couple of years,” and with wages outpacing property “the gap between earnings and house prices should gradually narrow”. Nine in ten outstanding mortgages are fixed, which cushions the rate rise for now, but 2.3 million fixed deals expire in 2027. Savills expects no recovery before 2028. The annual decline is the biggest since October 2023; whether it deepens depends on how many more rises the Bank signals, with markets watching Thursday’s warning that inflation could near 5% by spring.

Burnham to force employers to put salaries on job adverts

Andy Burnham says his government will legislate “as soon as possible” to make pay details compulsory in job advertisements, and is telling firms to start now rather than wait. “Whether you’re a young person starting out or a parent trying to support your family, you should know what a job pays before spending your time and effort applying for it,” the prime minister said. Ministers have yet to decide which companies must comply, what they must publish or how it will be enforced.

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The “say what you pay” law follows a Cabinet Office consultation launched in July, which the government says drew “overwhelming support”, with more than nine in ten respondents in favour. Fewer than half of employers always publish a salary range and fewer than a fifth a specific figure, according to the CIPD; the jobs site Adzuna says 51% of its adverts carried pay information in September, a share that has been falling. The Treasury minister James Murray called it “an important common sense reform” and said pay “shouldn’t be a guessing game”; the TUC’s Paul Nowak said: “Anyone who’s searched for a job knows how frustrating it is to read ‘competitive salary’.” The CIPD’s chief executive, Neil Carberry, said disclosure was “a good thing” in principle but “more complicated” in practice: “There isn’t always a single fixed figure.” It arrives a week after the equality watchdog said staff should have a legal right to learn what colleagues earn. It is pitched at the nearly one million young people not in education, employment or training, ahead of Alan Milburn’s review of youth inactivity due within weeks. Watch the thresholds: a wide pay band would satisfy the law while telling applicants little.

Tube drivers to strike eight times from 26 November

RMT Tube drivers will stage eight 24-hour strikes beginning at noon on Thursday 26 November, with further stoppages on 17 and 19 December — the last Saturday before Christmas — and on 4 and 6 January and 17, 23 and 25 February, in a dispute over Transport for London’s plan for a four-day week. The union says the scheme, which TfL insists is voluntary, is “a wholesale attack on drivers’ working conditions”; the rival Aslef union, which backs it, called the strike “a strange choice”.

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About half of London Underground’s drivers are in the RMT, most of the rest in Aslef, so the June walkouts gave a guide to the disruption: Tube journeys fell by 40%, around 60% of drivers turned up and the Circle and Waterloo & City lines did not run. TfL’s offer cuts the working week from 36 hours to 35 with paid meal breaks, compressed into four days for those who choose it; the RMT wants a 32-hour week over four days and fears hundreds of job cuts, pointing to draft Bakerloo line rosters showing “significant reductions in staffing”. Eddie Dempsey, the RMT general secretary, said: “There is nothing voluntary about a scheme that forces drivers to give up existing protections whether they work four days or five, and threatens those who refuse with displacement from their depots.” Aslef’s Finn Brennan countered that the deal gives drivers “an extra 35 days off every year with rosters based on a 34-hour week”. TfL says it has committed “in writing” to the proposals being voluntary. The mayor has urged both sides back to talks; watch whether Aslef drivers again work through the strikes.

Met chief warns policing ‘heading for failure’ without regional forces

Sir Mark Rowley is using a speech on Friday to argue that policing in England and Wales is “heading for failure” unless the 43 forces are replaced by eight to ten regional ones, hundreds of local commands and a new National Police Service — the biggest reorganisation since the 1960s. “We have 43 overstretched forces trying to do too much, with too little,” he says. He also said he “wouldn’t be surprised if many more” women came forward with allegations against Russell Brand.

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The Metropolitan Police commissioner says organised crime, fraud and online child abuse now run across regional and national borders while forces remain organised around local areas, and that police funding has fallen from about 0.9% of GDP to 0.7%. “Standing still looks like a degradation of policing day by day, struggling even more as criminals outpace policing because we’re not organised to meet it,” he told BBC Breakfast; asked what happens without reform, he said “the risk is failure”. Shabana Mahmood’s January white paper backed the idea and Lord Hogan-Howe is drawing possible boundaries, but Andy Burnham has not spoken publicly on the plan since July, and chief constables fear losing his backing. The Association of Police and Crime Commissioners retorted: “The case for modernisation and a National Police Service is clear. The case for reducing 43 forces to nine regional ‘mega-forces’ is not.” The Home Office said the 1960s model “is no longer fit for purpose”. On Brand, convicted of rape and three sexual assaults on Thursday, Sir Mark said two further rape allegations were being examined and that reported defence lines were “getting very close to victim blaming”.

Seven arrested as Bonfire Night mobs burn police van in Glasgow

Seven people were arrested after a night of fireworks attacks on emergency crews across Scotland, in which a police van was set alight in Greenside Street, Provanmill, and a police officer and an ambulance worker were hurt as they answered a call about an injured man. A 16-year-old boy was arrested over the burning vehicle. Fire crews were attacked in Knightswood, Castlemilk, Cumnock, Larkhall and Blackridge, and fireworks were thrown at the public in Clydebank and at police in Edinburgh.

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Police Scotland called the Halloween-to-Bonfire Night operation, codenamed Amberlight, “one of the most complex and demanding deployments in recent memory”, with the largest number of officers mobilised since Donald Trump’s visit last year and reinforcements drawn from forces as far away as Avon and Somerset, Hampshire, Hertfordshire and south Wales. The force logged 1,024 fireworks-related calls between 31 October and 5 November, up from 833 in 2025, though Chief Superintendent David Robertson said fewer incidents needed specialist public-order units: “Police officers, ambulance staff and firefighters are there to protect communities — not be the target of violence.” Twenty-one dispersal orders were issued in Edinburgh and thirteen in Glasgow; nobody was charged with breaching the firework control zones. In Dundee’s Kirkton area a public-order unit was deployed after more than 100 young people set a fire in the road. The education secretary, Mairi McAllan, told Radio Scotland the violence was “completely unacceptable” while insisting “the vast majority of displays went ahead without any problems”. The scenes will feed the argument in Holyrood over whether the control zones and the 2022 fireworks licensing law are being enforced, and whether a wider sales ban is needed.

One To Read Did a data centre revolt affect the US midterm election results? BBC News · BBC Verify works through the voter poll in which 56% called AI and data centres a crucial or major factor and 76% would oppose a new one locally, and the $5bn-a-month construction boom behind the backlash.

☽

Evening Briefing

Thursday 5 November 2026 — 18:20 GMT

What It Means For You

Bank Rate is 4% from today: a typical tracker mortgage costs about £31 a month more and a variable deal about £14 once your lender moves, while savings rates should edge up; fixed-rate borrowers are unaffected until they remortgage.
The Bank now expects inflation to climb from 3.5% to around 5% by the middle of next year before easing, so the squeeze on food, fuel and energy bills gets worse before it gets better — and the Bank says more rises are possible.
Expect the January energy price cap to bite harder than the rate rise: the BBC’s economics editor says a typical household bill surges by 27% in January to £2,150 a year, which is why the Bank sees inflation near 5% by spring.

GEO Geopolitical

Midterms: Mississippi still uncalled as Republicans turn on each other

Two days after the midterms the Senate race in Mississippi remains uncalled, with the Democrat Scott Colom 1,138 votes ahead of Cindy Hyde-Smith on 96% of the expected vote; the state has no formal recount process and mail ballots postmarked by polling day count until 10 November. Ted Cruz called the result “a Watergate-level repudiation” and Ron DeSantis “close to an extinction-level event”, as the party’s 2028 hopefuls dissected the rout.

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Mr Cruz said Republican voters “showed up and voted and rejected our candidates”: “Food is too high, gas is too high, diesel is too high, insurance is too high, life is too high.” JD Vance, in his statement blaming the war, told those “just pissed at the results” that “you should be”, and conceded to critics “you did tell us so”. CNBC’s voter poll found nearly nine in ten voters called the cost of living crucial or major, three in four rated the economy poor or not so good, and about two in three said Mr Trump’s policies had worsened conditions. The incoming Democratic majorities are already mapping oversight: Frank Pallone promises an “aggressive oversight agenda” on the president’s energy deals, Senate Democrats intend to pass a war powers resolution, and Senate Finance Democrats plan to probe JPMorgan’s relationship with Jeffrey Epstein. A Colom win would make him Mississippi’s first black senator since Reconstruction in a state Mr Trump carried with 61% in 2024; his campaign believes around 15,000 provisional ballots remain, a figure no other outlet gives.

Nasdaq enters correction as Democratic sweep sparks AI fears

Wall Street fell sharply on Thursday as investors priced in tougher Democratic scrutiny of artificial intelligence and data centres: the Nasdaq dropped as much as 5%, more than 10% below its record close, on course for its worst day in eighteen months, and the Dow lost 2.5%, or 1,346 points. The S&P 500 was 3.5% lower by 17:30 GMT on CNBC’s feed. The FTSE 100 closed down 0.4% at 10,782 after rising 100 points earlier.

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The volatility index jumped 40% to its highest since the early weeks of the Iran war, and AJ Bell’s Danni Hewson said the Nasdaq had “lost more than $1.8 trillion worth of value in intraday trading” as “investors are fearful of a regulatory backlash against the AI sector from newly elected Democratic lawmakers”. Texas’s governor-elect, Gina Hinojosa, has pledged a moratorium on data-centre construction. Nvidia fell around 8%, AMD 13% and Intel 5.5%; over five days Micron is down more than 20%. SpaceX shares, listed only recently, fell more than 7% and Tesla more than 9%, with Elon Musk having spent nearly $450m backing Republicans, including at least $45m on Ken Paxton’s losing Texas Senate campaign. Qualcomm slid 9% on weak guidance, its handset chip sales down 26%, though its chief executive insisted “we don’t have a demand issue; it’s a supply issue”. Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq touched their lowest levels since late July. European indices had outperformed in the morning before the American open turned the day.

Paraguay’s president resigns after collapse of bank holding public funds

Santiago Peña resigned as president of Paraguay on Thursday, a day after opposition deputies moved to impeach him over the collapse of Ueno Bank, which the central bank seized on Tuesday after its capital fell below half the legal minimum. The bank claimed more than 60% of the country’s adults as customers and held around $800m in public deposits, including pensions. “It was never my intention to betray the trust you placed in me,” he said.

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Mr Peña, a 47-year-old former IMF economist, announced his resignation in a video on X, saying he acted “with the stability of our country, social peace and the need to preserve our democratic institutions in mind”, and apologising “to the people if at any point I failed”. He had been a shareholder until last year in the company that owned the bank, and the AP reports that its executives have been detained and that his party patron Horacio Cartes withdrew his support. The lower house had voted to pursue an impeachment trial, which needs two-thirds majorities in both chambers; Al Jazeera reports that congress was also seeking to impeach the vice-president, Pedro Alliana, who is nonetheless set to take office, and that protesters outside urged deputies not to accept the resignation. “Santiago Peña and the Colorado Party have stolen all our savings,” one told the AP. Al Jazeera puts the bank’s customers at roughly three million in a country of 6.5 million and the public funds at close to $850m; the AP says about $800m, a quarter of deposits.

France: ministry counts 600,000 marchers as CGT claims 1.6 million

At least 600,000 people joined Thursday’s strikes and marches across France by the government’s estimate, while the CGT union put the figure at almost 1.6 million; riot police fired tear gas at the end of demonstrations in Bordeaux and Lyon, where a car was set alight and black-bloc protesters clashed with officers, but the day was largely peaceful. The night before, the National Assembly had voted unanimously against the government’s 2027 budget plans.

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The CGT’s Sophie Binet said more than 250,000 had marched in almost 70 towns and cities by 13:00 and called it “just the start”; the interior minister, Laurent Nuñez, had deployed 70,000 police and promised “an extremely firm response”. The education ministry said 16% of teachers struck and 81 lycées were affected, against student unions’ claim of 1,000; about a third of higher-education sites were disrupted, and the Eiffel Tower and rooms of the Louvre closed. The CFDT’s demand is a net rise of €100 a month on a minimum wage of €12.31 an hour. The budget defeat is largely symbolic — the prime minister is expected to force it through under Article 49.3 — but it leaves Sébastien Lecornu seeking €54bn of savings with the deficit at 5.1% of GDP and debt approaching 120% of output. No arrest figures had been published by early evening. The yellow vests plan further action on Friday and Saturday, and the unions will meet to decide whether the strike continues.

Joint List backs Eisenkot, handing him a majority of recommendations

Israel’s Joint List said it would tell President Herzog on Thursday evening that it recommends Gadi Eisenkot to form the next government, which Al Jazeera calculates would give him 67 recommendations, above the 61-seat majority, once its eleven members are counted. Mansour Abbas’s Ra’am has also backed Mr Eisenkot, while Degel HaTorah’s four members are recommending no one, so Benjamin Netanyahu’s 53-seat bloc may not deliver 53 endorsements.

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The arithmetic follows Wednesday’s certification of the result and the opening of Mr Herzog’s consultations, where the Times of Israel counted at least 56 recommendations for Mr Eisenkot against 53 for Mr Netanyahu before the Joint List declared. A recommendation is not a coalition: the Arab-led lists took a record 19 seats, but all but one Jewish party pledged before the election not to govern with them, and the Joint List has said that if it supports a government from outside it does not want to give it “a safety net only to bring it down”. Mr Abbas, pressed on whether he regards Hamas as a terrorist organisation, declined, saying he had “an unequivocal answer” but asked to be left “this space to be a bridge”, calling it “a matter of life or death” for his family’s safety. Whoever the president designates has 28 days, extendable by 14, to assemble a majority in the 120-seat Knesset. Watch for Mr Herzog’s choice and for whether Mr Eisenkot can build a coalition without formally including the Arab parties.

UK UK Domestic Politics

Bank raises rates to 4% and warns inflation will near 5%

The Bank of England raised Bank Rate by a quarter point to 4% on Thursday, its first increase since August 2023, by eight votes to one; Catherine Mann wanted a half-point rise to 4.25%. The committee now expects inflation, 3.5% in September, to reach around 5% by the middle of next year as energy prices feed through, before falling back. “Monetary policy is not on a pre-set path,” it said.

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The minutes say the Middle East conflict, now in its ninth month, pushed Brent to an average of $108 a barrel and UK gas to 216p a therm over the fortnight to 27 October, 38% and 81% above July’s assumptions. There is “limited evidence of knock-on effects on other prices and wages”, but “the degree of inflationary pressure in the pipeline is now sufficient to warrant an increase”, and activity has been stronger than expected. Andrew Bailey said the rise “should not be seen as the first in an inevitable long sequence of hikes”, but that unless the Middle East conflict is resolved “neither does it seem likely to be the last increase”; Megan Greene said “additional hikes will likely be required”. For the 510,000 households on tracker mortgages the rise adds about £31 a month on a typical loan, UK Finance calculates, and about £14 for the 470,000 on standard variable rates once lenders pass it on; 87% of borrowers are on fixed deals and feel nothing until they remortgage. Markets had priced the move at 99.96%; the pound reached its strongest level since 23 June 2016 on the Bank’s index.

Russell Brand guilty of rape and three sexual assaults; sentencing Monday

A jury at Southwark Crown Court found Russell Brand guilty on Thursday of one count of rape and three of sexual assault, and cleared him of two further rapes and one attempted indecent assault, after eight and a half hours of deliberation. The judge, Mr Justice Bennathan, said a conviction for rape meant “inevitably a significant custodial term” and remanded him in custody until sentencing on Monday. The Metropolitan Police are investigating allegations from two more women.

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The rape conviction concerned a young fan Brand picked from the crowd after a Hammersmith Apollo show in early 2009 and attacked at his London house; the sexual assaults were on an MTV employee at a party in 2004, a woman working at Choice FM in 2004 or 2005, and a Channel 4 worker during filming in 2009. He was acquitted of raping a woman after the 1999 Labour conference in Bournemouth and of attempting to assault an MTV worker in 2001. Refusing bail, the judge said there were “substantial grounds to fear he might in the end not feel able to come along and face his sentence”. The prosecutor, Riel Karmy-Jones KC, had told the jury: “His eyes changed, he snapped, from charming to frightening to nasty.” The CPS called him “a calculated sexual predator”; the Met’s Det Supt Andy Furphy said Brand “used his influence, status and fame to exploit and sexually offend against women” and that “no-one is above the law”. The six complainants, who did not know one another, have lifelong anonymity. Channel 4 praised their “extraordinary courage”; the BBC, which employed Brand from 2006 to 2008, had not commented by evening.

Burnham seeks to ‘recast’ Chagos deal and may delay ten-year plan

Andy Burnham says Britain is talking to Washington about how to “recast” the Chagos Islands agreement “that better meets their concerns”, pointing to America’s Greenland deal with Denmark as a possible model for Diego Garcia, after President Trump called the arrangement “a terrible deal”. In the same interview with The Economist he said his promised ten-year plan for Britain “may go into the new year … December or January”, and confirmed Vladimir Putin will not be invited to the Manchester G20.

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The deal negotiated under Sir Keir Starmer would hand sovereignty to Mauritius with a 99-year lease on the Diego Garcia base, at £165m a year for three years and £120m a year thereafter; payments to Mauritius have been suspended. “We’re working hard on it, but it is challenging,” Mr Burnham said. Under the Greenland precedent, the territory stays Danish while the United States is allowed a significant military presence and adversaries are barred from building bases. The ten-year plan, promised on his first day in Downing Street “later this year”, will set out public control over key parts of the economy; he called it “substantial” and “compelling because I am weaving the different threads together”. On the G20 in November 2027 he said Mr Putin “will not be coming because of an outstanding sanction”, while Xi Jinping, who visited Manchester in 2015, “will see a big difference”; he wants the summit to pursue global agreements on AI, which “feels challenging”. The Chagos and plan details rest on the Guardian’s account of the interview; the BBC reports the Putin line from the same exchange.

Farage fears Trump will escalate Iran war after midterm ‘shellacking’

Nigel Farage said he worried that President Trump “will continue aggressively attacking Iran” after what he called “an absolute shellacking” in the midterms, warning of “even more serious implications for the price of oil, for inflation, for the whole western world”. Asked whether the war was a mistake, the Reform leader said: “There’s no question about it.” He was unveiling Angus MacIntyre, a former RAF wing commander, as Reform’s defence spokesman.

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Mr Farage said Mr Trump had kept his promises in office except one — “he said no more foreign wars and here we are in month eight of a war with no sign of ending” — and that fuel prices “in the end has done the damage”; he said he had backed “quick tactical strikes from Diego Garcia” to slow Iran’s nuclear programme but never “war for the next eight months or three years”, and observed that “all political careers end in failure”. He has not spoken to the president since the result. Mr MacIntyre pledged to end prosecutions of serving personnel and veterans within Reform’s first 100 days; the Guardian noted his sixteen-minute speech did not mention Ukraine or Iran. Across Europe the populist right is keeping its distance: the AfD’s Alice Weidel said Mr Trump’s “broken campaign promise has now come back to haunt the Republicans”, Jordan Bardella blamed the Iran strikes’ “very heavy consequences” without naming him, Italy’s Roberto Vannacci said he “failed to live up to expectations”, and Vox’s Santiago Abascal, three weeks from Spain’s election on 29 November, said his concern was “in Spain, not in Michigan”.

BT sheds 7,731 jobs since March as profits rise 12%

BT’s workforce has fallen by 7,731 to 90,000 since the end of March, excluding its international business, most of the cuts falling at Openreach, the company said with half-year results that showed pre-tax profit up 12% to £1.1bn in the six months to September. Shares rose as much as 6% to a five-year high. Headcount is down 11,712, or 11%, on a year earlier, and stood at about 130,000 including contractors two years ago.

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Allison Kirkby, the chief executive, said: “Our UK-centric strategy and transformation is clearly delivering with £312 million of annualised savings achieved in the first half, as we continue to simplify and modernise.” BT is folding its international operations into a joint venture with Verizon and has bought TalkTalk for £400m, taking on about 900 staff and 2.5 million households; Openreach’s full-fibre network now passes 24.1 million homes against a 25 million target. The Guardian says the group is aiming for 75,000 to 80,000 staff by the end of the decade and a cost-savings target raised to £3.7bn by 2030, while the Independent reports a post-separation workforce of 65,000 to 70,000 and a target trimmed to about £3.5bn a year — different bases for the same plan, so no single end-point figure is given. Ms Kirkby was paid £5.6m last year, with the shares up about 70% since she took over. Rival Virgin Media O2 is cutting thousands of jobs in an £800m savings drive. Neither report carries a union response.

One To Read How high will interest rates go? BBC News · Faisal Islam reads the vote split: three members talked of rises plural, one wanted a bigger move, three including the governor spoke of just one more. His call is “two and done, but it depends” — and on what it depends.

☼

Morning Briefing

Thursday 5 November 2026 — 11:44 GMT

What It Means For You

If you have a tracker mortgage, a quarter-point rise to 4% at noon would add about £31 a month to a typical loan, according to UK Finance; the 470,000 households on variable rates must wait for their lender’s response, and savers should see better returns.
Sterling at its strongest since the 2016 referendum on the Bank’s trade-weighted index means more buying power on imports and foreign holidays, and helps hold down inflation at home.
The Energy Independence Bill would formally scrap gas standing charges, as promised in the Budget, though the saving depends on the bill passing; the new £2bn energy wealth fund is to invest oil and gas tax revenue in renewables.

GEO Geopolitical

Vance blames Iran war for defeat as Brent sinks below $95

JD Vance has told Republicans that “the reason we lost is the war”, in a statement on X that the BBC describes as 600 words long and carefully calibrated. President Trump called the assessment “largely true” but said he would “do it again”. Brent crude settled 8.7% lower at $94.62 on Wednesday as traders bet that the result makes a deal with Tehran more likely.

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Mr Vance’s four-point prescription was to end the war, focus on the cost of living, “put America First” and change the relationship with Israel; he invited colleagues who thought the war worth losing the Senate “for the next 6 years” to say so. Ted Cruz said the war “should have been brief, decisive, and over”, while Chuck Schumer, who is set to lead the Senate, said “this war must end”. Mr Trump insisted he “would have done nothing different”, claiming Iran’s navy, air force and air defences were gone. In Tehran, Mohsen Rezaei of the Supreme National Security Council said Americans had been stuck with the bill for the war and called the result a political defeat for the president. West Texas Intermediate fell 8.3% to $88.12 and oil has lost more than 14% this week; analysts caution that Iran remains “hardened in its uncompromising position” and that the sell-off may be overdone. Al Jazeera puts the war’s cost to the American taxpayer at an estimated $47bn, a figure no other outlet gives. Watch for Ro Khanna’s proposal to bar funding for combat operations in Iran.

Komyshuvakha toll reaches 40 as bodycam shows Russian double-tap strike

The death toll from Monday’s Russian attack on a school used as an aid point in Komyshuvakha, in the Zaporizhzhia region, has climbed to 40, Volodymyr Zelensky said on Wednesday, with more than 30 people feared still under the rubble. Regional officials have confirmed 37 deaths and say some 38 may be trapped. Bodycam footage from a police officer killed in the strike shows residents being sent into a shelter seconds before it was hit.

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Nine glide bombs, some weighing 3,000kg according to the BBC, struck the school and an adjacent shelter at least two floors underground; the recording stops as the second bomb lands, and BBC Verify confirmed the location. The search entered its third day on Wednesday. Mr Zelensky complained of “very little reaction from the world to this insane attack” and renewed his call for air defence. Russia’s defence ministry has claimed that as many as 25 Ukrainian servicemen were killed; a UN monitoring mission said the strike “seems to have violated the most fundamental principles of international humanitarian law”. Overnight on Tuesday Russia sent 310 drones, 81 of them jet-powered, cutting power and water in Kyiv for hours; Ukraine said it downed or suppressed 272. Moscow said on Thursday it had hit a postal terminal near Kharkiv and a cargo ship off Odesa, claims Kyiv did not immediately confirm, while Ukrainian drones struck the Rosneft refinery at Ryazan. Trilateral talks are due in Abu Dhabi on 10–11 November.

Joshua Wong jailed for ten years under Hong Kong security law

Joshua Wong, the face of Hong Kong’s pro-democracy protests, was sentenced on Thursday to ten years in prison for colluding with foreign forces under the national security law. Judge William Tam called him “a mastermind of the conspiracy” and reduced a 13-year starting point for his guilty plea. Mr Wong, who turned 30 last month, has spent almost six years in detention and had been due for release in January.

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The charge concerned a conspiracy with the exiled activist Nathan Law to lobby for foreign sanctions and blockades against Beijing between July and November 2020; Mr Wong, the only Hong Kong activist prosecuted twice under the law, pleaded guilty in September. He was already serving four years and eight months for his part in the “Hong Kong 47” primary case. In a statement from prison he said he had never been “driven by hatred” and had “never advocated Hong Kong independence”. The chief executive, John Lee, called Mr Wong and Mr Law “among the primary culprits responsible for undermining Hong Kong’s prosperity and stability”; the US consulate said it “strongly condemns” the sentence and Human Rights Watch called it “cruel and unjust”. Beijing told critics to “stop making irresponsible remarks”. Only the media tycoon Jimmy Lai, jailed for 20 years, has received a longer sentence under the law. Mr Wong founded Scholarism at 14, became the face of the 2014 Umbrella Movement and appeared on the cover of Time.

France braces for 700,000 protesters as five unions strike

France’s five main unions have called a national day of strikes on Thursday, with the authorities expecting between 500,000 and 700,000 demonstrators and more than 250 separate actions. The interior minister, Laurent Nuñez, has deployed 70,000 police and gendarmes and promised “an extremely firm response” after more than 2,000 shops were looted on 17 October. Rail, hospital, postal and air-traffic staff are expected to join.

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The movement began in September as a protest over staff shortages at a single lycée south-east of Paris and has grown into a broad front with the yellow vests, who plan further action on Friday and Saturday. The unions’ joint statement says “anger is immense”; the CFDT’s Marylise Léon is asking for a net rise of €100 a month on a minimum wage of €12.31 an hour, and the CGT’s Sophie Binet accuses the government of “a very dangerous authoritarian drift”. Eighty-one lycées were shut on Thursday morning and about 17.5% of primary schools were affected, the education ministry said. With refinery strikes halting output, the government has released 10 million barrels of diesel from strategic reserves, and France was expected to import more electricity than it produces as nuclear plants were disrupted. The backdrop is public debt approaching 120% of output and a budget the unions say will deepen poverty; Marine Le Pen is polling strongly ahead of 2027. The Paris march runs from République to Nation after a court refused a route to Concorde.

Bomb hoaxes divert a dozen European flights for second time this week

An Aer Lingus flight from Dublin to Rome was escorted by French fighter jets to the Evreux air base on Thursday after a bomb threat, one of at least a dozen aircraft targeted across Europe in a single morning. The French prime minister’s office said 151 passengers and six crew were moved to safety. Flights to Sofia, Prague, Brussels, Warsaw, Vienna and Bucharest were also diverted or searched; nothing was found and no arrests have been reported.

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Three Ryanair services to Bulgaria, two Finnair flights from Helsinki, a LOT Warsaw–Brussels service, Wizz Air flights from Milan and four aircraft bound for Prague appear in the Guardian’s tally, which stood at 14 by late morning; Al Jazeera put the number at about ten and the BBC at twelve, a count that moved through the day. Finnair called the threats “unfounded or hoax” and said one of its aircraft was escorted into Rome by a fighter jet; Czech police rated the credibility of their four threats as low and passed the case to counter-terrorism and cybercrime investigators. Aer Lingus described the diversion as “a security precaution”. It follows Tuesday’s wave, which the BBC now puts at eight flights, two of them from the UK, and the escort of a Luton–Sofia Wizz Air flight to Budapest on Monday; the British government has condemned “malicious hoax threats”. No one has claimed responsibility and no government has attributed blame.

UK UK Domestic Politics

Bank expected to raise rates to 4% as pound hits post-referendum high

The Bank of England announces its decision at 12:00 GMT, and most analysts expect the first rise since August 2023, from 3.75% to 4%, after inflation climbed to 3.5% in September. Sterling has reached its joint highest level since the June 2016 referendum on the Bank’s trade-weighted index, at 86.4, and stood at $1.3495 at 04:15. A quarter-point rise adds about £31 a month to a typical tracker mortgage, UK Finance calculates.

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The Monetary Policy Committee has held the rate for six meetings since it came down from the 5.25% peak of 2023–24; the rise in inflation, driven mainly by petrol and diesel since the Iran war, has cemented expectations of a move now and possibly more in 2027, the AP reports. “We imagine that many committee members’ patience with the recent rise in inflation has worn thin,” said Ellie Henderson of Investec. Chris Cheverall of CMC Markets said the decision “is increasingly less about whether rates reach 4% and more about what follows after that”; traders will study the vote split, the new projections and the guidance. A rise would reach the 510,000 households on tracker mortgages immediately and the 470,000 on variable deals once lenders respond, while savers would gain. Sterling’s strength, which Jim O’Neill attributes to investors “underestimating the improving momentum in the UK”, helps rein in inflation and cheapens imports and holidays. The FTSE 100 rose about 0.8% to 10,916 by late morning, close to its record, as ten-year gilt yields eased to 5.11%. Household energy bills are forecast to rise sharply in January.

Ministers move to outlaw new North Sea oil and gas exploration

The government has introduced an Energy Independence Bill that would strip the North Sea Transition Authority of its power to grant new oil and gas licences, making Labour’s manifesto moratorium permanent and reversible only by a Commons majority. Existing fields could still add output from adjoining areas under new transitional certificates, which ministers say could yield about 60 million barrels and support hundreds of jobs. Rosebank and Jackdaw are unaffected.

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The bill, brought forward by the energy secretary, Miatta Fahnbulleh, would also formally scrap gas standing charges, as promised in the Budget, and speed up grid connections; alongside it ministers announced an energy wealth fund, seeded with £2bn of oil and gas tax revenue, to invest in renewable and low-carbon projects. Andy Burnham said the changes would “bring bills down for good, give families greater security and put Britain back in control of its energy future”. The Conservatives called the bill “dangerous” and accused ministers of being “totally oblivious to the economic and energy threats this country faces”; the SNP’s Graham Leadbitter said it was “designed to exploit Scotland’s energy” and strengthened the case for independence. The decision on Rosebank, 80 miles north-west of Shetland and thought to hold 300–500 million barrels, sits outside the bill and still awaits ministers; production at the Jackdaw gas field was approved only two weeks ago. Watch for the bill’s second reading and for whether the transitional certificates satisfy the industry in the north-east of Scotland.

UK signs up to ‘time-bound’ dialogue on slavery as summit closes

Commonwealth leaders ended their Antigua summit with an 18-page communiqué welcoming Britain’s agreement to “a structured, time-bound, inclusive and good-faith dialogue” on the transatlantic slave trade and its historical harms. No deadline is set, though Ed Miliband says the talks are likely to conclude within about a year, and Gaston Browne of Antigua and Barbuda expects the framework to be settled by early next year. Andy Burnham has ruled out reparations but left an apology open.

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Asked whether a formal apology might come by the time Britain hosts the G20 in Manchester next November, the Foreign Secretary told the BBC: “Broadly speaking, yes.” Mr Burnham called it “the most successful meeting of the Commonwealth in recent times” and said the King’s words had “resonated powerfully”; the King had told leaders that the trade was a “shameful chapter” that filled his heart “with horror”. Mr Browne said there was “consensus” on a way forward and praised the prime minister’s “courage and goodwill”, while making clear that “reparations must be part of this structured dialogue”. Britain has offered talks on debt resets and £40m for Caribbean infrastructure over three years; the Caricom reparations commission’s ten-point plan asks instead for “debt cancellation” and “monetary compensation”. Ralph Gonsalves, a former prime minister of St Vincent, warned that development assistance cannot stand in for reparations. The gap between a dialogue Britain treats as time-limited and demands the region treats as open is where the next year’s argument lies.

Palestine Action ban caused ‘crisis in confidence’, Supreme Court told

Lawyers for Huda Ammori, a co-founder of Palestine Action, told five Supreme Court justices that proscribing the group last year had produced a “crisis in confidence” in anti-terrorism law and provoked unprecedented civil disobedience. Home Office figures seen by the BBC show more than 4,000 arrests at protests where supporters held signs, with 1,200 charges authorised; those trials are in limbo. Twenty-seven people were arrested outside the court on Wednesday.

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Raza Husain KC said the group was banned on the basis of only three of 385 incidents that the Home Secretary assessed as offences under the Terrorism Act, “less than one per cent of its actions over five years”, and that the suffragettes, anti-war and environmental movements had used similar or more extreme tactics without being treated as terrorists. Henry Blaxland KC said that, far from depriving the group of publicity, all proscription had done was “pour fuel on to a fire”. Ms Ammori’s team accepted that the group was not an ordinary peaceful protest movement, and the court heard that one member had been jailed for fracturing a police officer’s back with a sledgehammer, violence the group says it never advocated. For the Home Secretary, Sir James Eadie KC argued that the Court of Appeal’s ruling was lawful and proportionate, citing four convictions and a “terrorist connection” finding over the raid on Elbit Systems at Filton, plus American sanctions, and said the ban “does not prevent public expressions of support for the Palestinian cause”. This is the first time the court has weighed a terrorism ban against free speech.

British health worker with Ebola flown home from DR Congo

A British healthcare worker who tested positive for Ebola in the Democratic Republic of Congo is being evacuated to the UK, the first British national infected in the current outbreak, which has killed more than 5,000 people. The patient is in a stable condition and will be taken by specialist ambulance to a high-consequence infectious disease unit, according to an official document seen by Reuters. The government says the risk to the public “remains low”.

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“The UK has well-established procedures for dealing with cases like this, and those processes have been activated,” a government spokesperson said. The Royal Free in London has a high-level isolation unit, with others in Newcastle and Liverpool; the patient was sent to Congo by a humanitarian organisation and was expected to arrive on Wednesday or Thursday. Only four Ebola cases have ever been confirmed in Britain — one from a laboratory incident in 1976 and three health workers returning from west Africa in 2014–15 — and none proved fatal. The outbreak, declared on 15 May, has passed 10,000 confirmed cases, with a fatality rate of 48.6% reported at the end of October; it is the seventeenth in Congo’s history and the second deadliest ever recorded. It is driven by the Bundibugyo strain, for which there is no approved vaccine, though two candidates — one from Oxford and the Serum Institute of India, one from Moderna — are to join a clinical trial. Cases have been confirmed in Kenya, Uganda and Nigeria.

One To Read What Democrats can and can’t do with their new power after taking Congress BBC News · Hakeem Jeffries promises “the great American comeback”, Chris Coons warns against reading the result as a mandate, and the arithmetic of vetoes, confirmations and a 67-vote conviction threshold — with Congress itself at 14% approval.

☽

Evening Briefing

Wednesday 4 November 2026 — 18:00 GMT (published Thursday 5 November)

What It Means For You

If the Energy Independence Bill passes, the daily standing charge on household gas bills goes: the government says around 60% of gas account holders would save an average of £45 a year, with 23 million households affected.
The Bank of England decides on interest rates at noon on Thursday; a majority of the committee is expected to vote for a quarter-point rise to 4%, the first increase since 2023, which feeds straight through to tracker and variable mortgages.
The Budget’s £100 winter energy payment for up to 20 million households in England and the £50 cut to the annual price cap stand alongside the bill; both are government figures and depend on the measures passing.

GEO Geopolitical

Trump ‘a little bit surprised’ as Republicans turn on him over defeat

Donald Trump said he was “a little bit surprised” by the Democrats’ sweep of both houses of Congress, blaming high petrol prices from the Iran war and, in a string of posts, Fox News. “I wasn’t on the Ballot and if I was, we would have won IN A LANDSLIDE!” he wrote. Inside his party, shock turned to anger: “It’s on him. It’s not on anybody else,” a senior Texas Republican lobbyist told the BBC.

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Bill Miller called the result “a total, complete rejection of President Trump” and “a disaster of the first magnitude”; a White House ally said the Iran war, tariffs and the immigration crackdown had created a “perfect storm”. Democrats took Senate seats in Kansas for the first time since 1932, in Texas since 1988 and in South Carolina since 1998; both chambers have changed hands together in a midterm only three times since the Second World War, in 1946, 1994 and 2006. Mr Trump told Fox News that voters “weren’t willing to do the short term consequences of paying more for gasoline”, told Politico that they “didn’t like the candidates in most cases”, and posted an image of a red cap bearing the word “VETO”. JD Vance went further in a statement on X, saying the war was the reason the party lost and that “any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there”. Before the results were in, Mr Trump had accused Fox of “constantly and consistently putting on the Dumocrat opposition”; its anchor Bret Baier noted on air that the network’s polls had been close to right.

Brent falls below $100 for the first time since 7 October

Brent crude dropped below $100 a barrel on Wednesday for the first time since 7 October, a fall of nearly $9 or more than 8%, as traders bet that the election result would push President Trump towards ending the Iran war without a major escalation. West Texas Intermediate slipped 8% to about $89. Earlier in the session Brent had been down a more modest 2.5% at $101.02.

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“The next six weeks typically deliver one of the most hostile environments for higher gasoline and diesel prices,” said Tom Kloza of Gulf Oil; if neither side pursues “scorched earth” policies in the Gulf, “we may see considerably lower prices by second half December”. The American average pump price was $4.12 on Wednesday morning, 39% higher than before the war began on 28 February, and Patrick De Haan of GasBuddy expects it to fall below $4 in the “days ahead”. Priyanka Sachdeva of Phillip Nova said the president’s “conflicting signals, with military strikes continuing alongside statements downplaying further escalation”, had made it hard for traders to build conviction, and that profit-taking after October’s rally was justified. Ship-tracking data from Vortexa put flows of crude, condensate and refined products from the Middle East at 17.1 million barrels a day in October, down from 18.9 million in September but still roughly three-quarters of pre-war levels. A senior Iranian official told Reuters on Tuesday that the two sides remain far from a deal.

Zelensky decorates Melania Trump as Russia cuts power across Kyiv

Volodymyr Zelensky has awarded Melania Trump the Order of Princess Olha, first class, Ukraine’s highest award for women, for her “significant personal contribution to humanitarian support for Ukraine” after the Kherson ceasefire that allowed several hundred people to leave occupied Oleshky. Overnight Russian strikes on generating plants and substations in nine regions caused hours-long power and water outages across Kyiv, while Ukrainian drones killed three people in Russia’s Belgorod region.

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Russian and Ukrainian delegations are to meet at the White House on Thursday at the First Lady’s invitation; the White House said she had “independently initiated engagement between the two warring nations and successfully secured a ceasefire”, calling it “an unprecedented diplomatic initiative by an American First Lady”. Ukraine’s human rights ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets and his Russian counterpart Yana Lantratova, who travelled into Oleshky together last week, will attend alongside Davyd Arakhamia, who leads Mr Zelensky’s party in parliament, and the Kremlin envoy Kirill Dmitriev; both sides have thanked Mrs Trump, though neither has elaborated on what her involvement amounted to. Russia’s defence ministry said it hit two power stations in the Kyiv and Zhytomyr regions, and residents of the capital were urged to use public drinking fountains and warming centres. The search continued at Komyshuvakha, where Monday’s bombing of an aid point and shelter has killed at least 40. Mrs Trump is to speak on the ceasefire at 16:00 GMT on Thursday.

Hackers hit French blood banks as freezer attacks spread to 11 countries

The French Blood Establishment said hackers raised the temperature of cold rooms storing donated blood at three sites, through a refrigeration supplier, but monitoring systems caught it and “no blood products or samples were compromised”. It is the first known medical target in a wave of attacks that has spoiled tonnes of food in supermarkets across at least 11 European countries; the EU calls the incidents “not isolated”, and no one has claimed responsibility.

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Three security firms running decoy “honeypot” freezer systems say the second wave was planned and coordinated: Ryan Dewhurst of Previdian notes the devices were hit simultaneously and overnight “for maximum damage”, and Strathclyde-based Lupovis saw hackers scanning only its European decoys for ten days beforehand, leaving those in Ukraine, Africa and South America alone. The entry points were poorly protected and the methods already circulated online. Russian hacktivist groups Noname057(16) and Z-Pentest Alliance claimed to have breached the equipment maker Danfoss, but analysts question whether that makes them the culprits; Iranian hackers, state actors and even teenagers pulling pranks have not been ruled out, and Romania’s cyber-security chief called the supermarket attacks “semi-amateurish” and said he did not suspect a state. Germany, Romania and the United Kingdom reported hits on Monday after nine EU countries, and Brussels says its agencies are working with national authorities on a joint response. The blood-bank attack was thwarted before any damage, but it marks the point at which the hacks reached a health system.

Israel certifies election result as Herzog begins coalition talks

Israel’s Central Elections Committee certified the results of last week’s election on Wednesday, finding no evidence of fraud and rejecting claims from Benjamin Netanyahu’s camp that Arab-led parties had been “stealing” it. President Isaac Herzog, receiving the results in Jerusalem, began consultations on whom to invite to form a government, telling party leaders that “not every commitment and promise can be fulfilled” if they want to avoid another election.

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Mr Netanyahu’s Likud and its far-right and ultra-Orthodox allies won 53 of the Knesset’s 120 seats on 27 October; Gadi Eisenkot’s centrist Yashar party and three other opposition parties won 48; and the two Arab-led alliances, the United Arab List and the Joint List, took an unprecedented 19 after a surge in Arab turnout, making them potential kingmakers even though all but one Jewish party pledged before the vote not to govern with them. The committee’s chairman, Justice Noam Sohlberg, said attempts “to cast doubt on the election results and to undermine their legitimacy” were “a real danger”; the Shin Bet is investigating allegations of foreign interference, which he said would not fundamentally change the outcome. Whoever Mr Herzog chooses has 28 days to build a coalition, with a possible 14-day extension. “I ask for originality and creativity, courage and goodwill, so that the State of Israel emerges the winner,” the president said. Mr Netanyahu’s allies are refusing to back the result.

UK UK Domestic Politics

Energy Independence Bill ends new North Sea licences and scraps standing charges

The government introduced its Energy Independence Bill on Wednesday, removing the North Sea Transition Authority’s power to grant new oil and gas licences and making Labour’s manifesto moratorium permanent, while letting existing fields add output from adjoining areas under transitional energy certificates. Ministers will amend the bill to scrap standing charges on household gas bills, which they say gives about 23 million households more control and saves around 60% of gas account holders an average of £45 a year.

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Miatta Fahnbulleh, the energy secretary, said the bill would help “build a clean energy future which people feel in their pockets, households and communities”; Andy Burnham said the changes would “bring bills down for good”. The government says the transitional certificates could produce about 60 million barrels and support hundreds of jobs, and it is creating a £2bn energy wealth fund from oil and gas tax receipts, alongside a North Sea Jobs Service, to invest in low-carbon industries. The Conservatives called the bill “dangerous” and said ministers were “totally oblivious to the economic and energy threats this country faces”; the SNP’s Graham Leadbitter said it was “designed to exploit Scotland’s energy”. Rosebank, approved in 2022 and still awaiting a ministerial decision, and Jackdaw, approved two weeks ago, are unaffected; because repeal would need a Commons majority, the bill makes any future reopening of the North Sea harder. The package builds on the Budget’s £100 winter energy payment for up to 20 million households in England and £50 off the annual price cap.

Burnham: US result is an ‘opportunity’ to unite on cost of living

Andy Burnham said the midterm results gave the world “an opportunity now to unite around the issue that is affecting us all, and that’s the cost of living”, speaking from the Commonwealth summit in Antigua. “President Trump has accepted the results,” he said, adding that he could not bring living costs down “until the conflict in the Middle East is resolved” and Russia’s war in Ukraine ended. He promised to press other leaders to focus on both.

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Mr Burnham said the cost of living had been the issue he had “put front and centre in my first three months in Downing Street” and that American voters wanted to “see the world coming together and focusing on the things that matter to people”. At Prime Minister’s Questions, taken in his absence by Louise Haigh, the Liberal Democrats’ deputy leader Daisy Cooper said voters had rejected Mr Trump’s “warmongering and the economic chaos that it has caused” and urged ministers to tell Washington and Jerusalem “there must be no more strikes”; Ms Haigh replied that the United States was “one of our most important allies and our priority absolutely is de-escalation”, called the war “catastrophic for the cost of living crisis” and said the Conservatives and Reform should “consider very carefully their judgment in calling for us to jump so readily into it”. Mr Trump told the Financial Times on Tuesday that the United States was “locked and loaded if we need to go”. The Bank of England’s decision on Thursday, where a majority of the committee is expected to vote for a rise to 4%, will show how far the squeeze has already fed through.

Haigh and Burghart trade welfare figures at PMQs in Burnham’s absence

With the prime minister in Antigua, Louise Haigh took her first Prime Minister’s Questions against the Conservatives’ deputy leader, Alex Burghart, who pressed her on working-age welfare spending; when she declined to give a figure he put it at £183bn. Ms Haigh countered that welfare spending had risen by £88bn in a decade under the Conservatives. Mr Burghart also claimed the Office for Budget Responsibility had said 215,000 jobs were at risk from the Budget’s tax rises.

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The Guardian’s verdict was that both “performed well — in exchanges likely to be quickly forgotten”: Mr Burghart, who has done PMQs before, was “a bit more polished”, while Ms Haigh “swerved” the question of when Labour will cut the benefits bill with attacks on the Conservative record. The paper judged that “if anyone had a bad PMQs, it was probably Lindsay Hoyle”, arguing that the first secretary of state “seemed perfectly capable of coping with a bit of heckling”. Munira Wilson of the Liberal Democrats said Richmond council faces cuts of more than £100m over four years, 60% of its budget; Ms Haigh said the government had inherited an unfair council funding system. Asked about online scams, she said the Online Safety Act requires technology companies to take robust action. The session underlined that the government does not have a firm answer yet on when it will cut welfare spending, a question that will return when Mr Burnham is back at the despatch box, and one the Conservatives intend to keep asking.

Cocaine overtakes heroin as leading cause of drug deaths

Cocaine was involved in more drug-poisoning deaths in England and Wales last year than any other substance for the first time, the Office for National Statistics said, with 1,233 deaths and a 22% share. Total deaths fell slightly to 5,519 registered in 2025, 46 fewer than in 2024 and the first fall in the age-standardised rate since 2012, but they remain double the rates of ten years ago.

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Cocaine-specific deaths are four times higher than a decade ago and eight times higher than in 2010; 64% of those who died were over 40, a pattern also seen in treatment services. The north-east of England had the highest rate, 135.2 deaths per million, and London the lowest at 58.3; deaths were five times higher in the most deprived areas than the least deprived. Ketamine was mentioned in 115 deaths in 2025, against 27 in 2020 and seven in 2015. Niamh Eastwood of Release said cocaine deaths were “a direct result of policy failures both in the UK and internationally”: production is at an all-time high and the drug is “more available, cheaper and purer than ever, despite billions spent on trying to disrupt or eradicate the trade”. Charities said the government “must act now to reverse this deadly trend”. The ONS counts deaths by the year in which they were registered, so many occurred earlier; the overall rate of 92.4 per million compares with 93.9 in 2024. Police have recorded rising cocaine-linked assaults, domestic abuse and dangerous driving.

MPs warned of ‘Notre Dame-style fire’ as Parliament repair costs climb

The Palace of Westminster is at risk of a Notre Dame-style fire or a similar catastrophe unless MPs stop delaying its restoration, the Public Accounts Committee has said, with maintenance costs set to reach £2m a week and every year of inaction adding an estimated £420m to the programme. A recent estimate put the full restoration at as much as £40bn over up to six decades. Decisions have been repeatedly delayed amid disagreement over method and spiralling costs.

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Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown, the committee’s Conservative chairman, said there had been a “political allergy” to deciding, and asked MPs to consider “global rolling news footage of Notre Dame-like flames licking out of the building’s roof” or “the Chamber being plunged into darkness during the State Opening of Parliament”; these, he said, were not “notional possibilities”. Maintenance of the Grade I-listed Unesco world heritage site now costs £1.5m a week, including 24-hour patrols to avert fire, and is expected to rise to £2m. The committee’s report arrives as Parliament prepares to decide how and when the restoration and renewal programme should begin, a question successive governments have put off since the programme was first proposed. Its central argument is that delay is itself the most expensive option: each year without a decision adds more than the cost of many of the works it defers, while the risk to the building, to those who work in it and to the functioning of Parliament compounds. Expect the restoration vote to become a test of this government’s appetite for unpopular spending.

One To Read Five reasons why Republicans lost so badly BBC News · The BBC’s reckoning with the scale of the Republican collapse: the Iran war and petrol prices, a disciplined Democratic message, Mr Trump’s unpopularity as a drag on his party, and Hispanic and black voters shifting again.

☼

Morning Briefing

Wednesday 4 November 2026 — 07:55 GMT

What It Means For You

If you save into a workplace defined-contribution pension, ministers propose that your scheme should offer a default income for life as you approach retirement; you would remain free to choose another option.
The Bank of England announces its interest-rate decision on Thursday, and a first rise since 2023 is widely expected; ten-year gilt yields stood near 5.27% on Tuesday, which feeds through to fixed-rate mortgage pricing.
Under the planned UK–EU agrifood deal, pets travelling to Europe would need a pet passport rather than a certificate for every trip, though parts of the package will not take effect until 2028.

GEO Geopolitical

Democrats seize both houses of Congress in rebuke to Trump

Democrats have won control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate, flipping seven Republican-held Senate seats, among them Texas, Kansas, Ohio and Maine. The BBC projects 245 House seats for the Democrats to 166 for the Republicans. “Today begins the great American comeback,” said Hakeem Jeffries, who is poised to become the first black Speaker when the new Congress sits in January.

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Kansas elected its first Democratic senator since 1932, and James Talarico ended his party’s 38-year statewide losing streak in Texas, where Gina Hinojosa also ousted Governor Greg Abbott. Susan Collins conceded in Maine after three decades. Hispanic voters, who helped deliver Mr Trump’s 2024 victory, swung decisively back, and Republican redistricting in Texas and Florida largely failed. In an election-day voter poll, 63% said the US was wrong to take military action against Iran and 65% said Mr Trump’s policies had worsened the economy. Florida was a rare bright spot for Republicans: Byron Donalds became its first black governor.

Trump concedes Iran war cost votes, but signals vetoes ahead

President Trump acknowledged that the war had contributed to Republican losses — “Iran was a piece of it” — but said he did not regret launching it and that it would end “when I say it ends”. He told CBS he wanted to strike deals with congressional Democrats, then posted an image of his red cap emblazoned with the word “veto”.

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Before polling day Mr Trump had said: “I’ll become Mr Veto, and then at some point we’ll probably make deals.” Because legislation will almost certainly need his signature, NPR notes, the Democrats’ cost-of-living agenda may become a 2028 platform rather than law. Senate control will, however, halt the steady confirmation of his judges and force Cabinet nominees to win Democratic votes. Robert Garcia, expected to chair the House Oversight Committee, posted two words: “LAWYER UP.” The BBC’s Anthony Zurcher says a historic third impeachment attempt could be on the cards.

Tehran says Americans ‘said no to war’ as tankers burn near Hormuz

Iran’s chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said the midterm results showed that “Americans said no to war”, warning that if Washington betrayed that will, “our ‘no’ comes with a nightmare”. The Revolutionary Guard claimed four tankers had been destroyed by naval mines on a prohibited route south of the Strait of Hormuz, two of them still burning. The claim has not been independently verified.

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Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, called Washington’s reply to Tehran’s seven conditions “not convincing”, saying the strait would reopen only once they were met. Qatar says both sides “remain committed to the negotiation process”. Mr Trump called Tuesday’s strike on an anti-aircraft site on Qeshm Island a “minor attack” that “wasn’t war”, adding that American forces were “locked and loaded if we need to go, but there may be no need for it”. US media have reported that Central Command has plans for strikes that could begin as early as Wednesday, with three aircraft carriers in the region.

Oil firms and US futures slip as markets weigh divided government

Brent crude rose 0.8% to $104.42 a barrel by 05:10 GMT in volatile trading, reversing earlier losses, as investors awaited Washington’s next move on Iran after the Democratic sweep. S&P 500 futures were 0.1% lower and Nasdaq futures 0.3% lower, while Japan’s Nikkei fell 1.4%. Brent had settled on Tuesday at its lowest level in nearly four weeks.

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“President Trump’s conflicting signals, with military strikes continuing alongside statements downplaying further escalation, have made it difficult for traders to build strong directional conviction,” said Priyanka Sachdeva of Phillip Nova. Industry figures showed US crude stocks fell by 5.27 million barrels last week, against expectations of a rise; official EIA data follow at 15:30 GMT. Sterling firmed about 0.5% to $1.347. The Bank of England is widely expected to raise rates for the first time since 2023 on Thursday, though it is expected to push back against market bets on further increases next year.

Spain’s transport minister resigns after Urda crash that killed 69

Óscar Puente has resigned as Spain’s transport minister, six days after a high-speed train ploughed into a stationary one near Urda, south of Madrid, killing at least 69 people. “A transport minister in a country like Spain cannot remain in office after two accidents of this seriousness in less than a year,” he told Congress. He will not stand in the 29 November election.

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Mr Puente had insisted days earlier that he would stay, while opposition parties and some government allies demanded that he go. January’s crash on the same line killed 46. Leaked recordings appear to show that the Renfe train, carrying 397 passengers, was cleared to proceed although an Iryo train had stopped about 25km ahead after a signalling failure. Pedro Sánchez praised his colleague for stepping aside “out of dignity”. Many observers see the disaster as a severe blow to the Socialist-led government before the snap election.

UK UK Domestic Politics

Burnham to unveil EU deals on youth visas, pets and carbon

Andy Burnham is preparing to announce three agreements with the EU at a Brussels summit on 20 November: an agrifood deal including pet passports, British access to the EU emissions trading scheme, and a visa scheme for under-30s. He says the package would add £17bn, or 0.4%, to the economy. “I will not run ahead of public opinion,” he told ITV.

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Officials say the final texts are close, though the size of the youth scheme is unsettled; each member state would have its own quota, with a British “emergency brake” if any country refuses to issue its share. The agrifood deal, which the government values at more than £5bn by 2040, would free trade in goods such as live molluscs and Scottish salmon. Critics argue Britain is paying to sign up to rules it left the EU to escape. An EU draft seen by the Guardian presses Britain to match tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, which ministers resist.

Miliband says slavery apology will not cost British taxpayers

Ed Miliband, the Foreign Secretary, has insisted that a formal apology for Britain’s role in the transatlantic slave trade would not mean higher costs for taxpayers, and accused past governments of a “sweep it under the carpet” attitude. “Is it weak to do this? I think it’s the opposite of weak,” he told the BBC. An apology may come around the Manchester G20 summit in November 2027.

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The King told Commonwealth leaders in Antigua that “character and courage can combine to overcome the most monstrous injustice”, citing the Royal Navy’s “leading role” in ending the trade, but did not apologise. Mr Miliband described Tony Blair’s 2007 expression of “deep sorrow and regret” as “sorry not sorry”. The prime minister has ruled out reparations, though critics quoted by the Daily Express say his £40m aid offer risks “reparations by stealth”. Justin Welby, the former Archbishop of Canterbury, writes in The Independent that taxpayer-funded reparations would be a “moral evil”.

Cyber chief warns of AI-powered ransomware on infrastructure by 2028

The National Cyber Security Centre judges it “highly likely” that AI-powered malware will be used in a ransomware attack on Britain’s critical infrastructure by 2028. Its chief executive, Richard Horne, said this week’s hacking of supermarket freezers across Europe was “just the foothills”. “For decades, we have collectively got away with doing tech on the cheap,” he said.

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Mr Horne stressed that AI had not invented new attacks, but meant that “vulnerabilities that have been tolerated for far too long can now be discovered and exploited at a scale that was once unimaginable”. He said Russia was making sustained attempts to penetrate British military networks and Iran was conducting malicious operations against the UK, while China posed “the most sophisticated and sustained cyber challenge”. The freezer attacks hit shops from Sweden to Belgium and France, forcing them to throw away food. John Healey announced £60m last week for the first phase of a national Cyber Shield. Moscow, Beijing and Tehran have denied similar accusations.

Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor summonsed to give evidence in fraud trial

Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor has been served with a witness summons to give evidence in a High Court fraud trial on or around 15 December, the BBC understands — thought to be the first such summons to a royal since the 19th century. He is not accused of wrongdoing, but is said to have received some of the disputed payments, including £750,000.

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Nebahat Isbilen, an elderly Turkish woman, alleges that her former adviser Selman Turk misled her into paying the £750,000, believing it was for help with a passport; Mr Turk says it was a gift to create goodwill, and strongly denies dishonesty. The court will also examine about £768,000 paid in January 2020, which Mr Turk says was a loan towards a Swiss chalet. The first transfer came the day after the then duke recorded his 2019 Newsnight interview, and was later repaid. His appearance will be his first public questioning since that interview.

Ministers propose default lifetime pensions for 17 million private-sector savers

Around 17 million private-sector workers saving into defined-contribution pensions would be offered a default income for life under “guided retirement” plans launched by Torsten Bell, the pensions minister. Schemes would have to provide the default as savers approach retirement, though members could still choose otherwise. “We are resurrecting proper pensions for private sector workers,” Mr Bell said.

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Most private-sector defined-benefit schemes, which paid an inflation-protected income for life, have closed over the past 30 years, and in 2025–26 about 46% of first-time pension pot accesses involved withdrawing the whole pot. Retirement collective pension schemes, which pool risk among members, could serve as the default. Sir Steve Webb, a former pensions minister now at LCP, welcomed the idea but warned of a “danger” that lifetime-income products could be promoted too heavily: “If people want a secure income for life, the option of buying an annuity has always been there, but very few people freely choose it.”

One To Read Democrats tear up Trump’s political map on historic night BBC News · Anthony Zurcher on how Democrats won in Kansas, Texas and the Carolinas, why Hispanic voters swung back, and what divided government means for Mr Trump’s final two years.

☽

Evening Briefing

Tuesday 3 November 2026 — 20:40 GMT

What It Means For You

Most analysts expect the Bank of England to raise Bank Rate from 3.75% to 4% on Thursday, its first rise since 2023; the decision feeds through to mortgage, credit card and savings rates.
Some drivers mis-sold car finance between April 2007 and November 2024 may now receive early compensation offers, starting with Barclays; accepting is voluntary, but it ends any further claim.
Hoax bomb threats disrupted seven European flights on Tuesday, two of them from the UK; all were false alarms. The government said Britain has “one of the most robust aviation security systems in the world”.

GEO Geopolitical

Americans vote as Democrats seek control of Congress

Voting is under way across the United States in midterm elections that will decide control of Congress for the last two years of Donald Trump’s presidency. Democrats need net gains of three House seats and four in the Senate, and go into polling day with a nine-point lead on the generic ballot in CNN’s poll of polls. The first polls close at 23:00 GMT.

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Control of the House may become clear overnight, NPR reports, but the Senate could take days, with seven states especially competitive and two using ranked-choice voting. Ballot-scanning machines failed in part of Westchester County, New York, a pivotal House district, and flooding forced 23 Florida polling places to move. The Justice Department has sent about 1,000 monitors to 126 jurisdictions. Spending is projected at nearly $12bn, the most on record. Mr Trump will watch results with allies in the White House East Room.

Trump says American military aid to Israel will end this year

President Trump said on polling day that the United States would stop its roughly $4bn a year in aid to Israel at the end of 2026, under a deal he said he had struck with Benjamin Netanyahu. “We’ve already agreed that by the end of this year we won’t be paying Israel,” he told Fox News. Israeli defence officials said they had not expected the announcement.

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The existing ten-year memorandum provides $3.8bn a year and runs beyond 2026, and Congress, not the president, appropriates the money, so the cut may prove slower than promised. Mr Trump tied the move to Democratic attacks, calling the aid “a bad talking point”. Gadi Eisenkot, Mr Netanyahu’s chief rival in coalition talks, said learning of the change “through the media” showed the prime minister “can no longer be trusted”. European shares recovered their earlier losses after the remarks, and oil prices fell.

Tehran holds to its terms after American strikes on Qeshm

Iran insisted on Tuesday that its conditions must be met before the Strait of Hormuz reopens, hours after American forces struck Qeshm Island in what US officials called a defensive response to Iranian surface-to-air missile fire. A senior Iranian official told Reuters the two sides remained far apart. Qatari mediators were in Tehran discussing a draft agreement.

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Diplomacy and force are running on parallel tracks. President Pezeshkian said the supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, had given the government “certain authorities” over talks with Washington, a shift since the June memorandum collapsed. JD Vance said: “We’ve certainly made some progress. We’ll see if we can make some more.” Yet Mr Trump has said the war will end “one way or the other” and has named the fortified Pickaxe Mountain nuclear site as a possible target. Many observers see the midterms as his decision point.

Komyshuvakha toll rises to 33 as Kremlin confirms Abu Dhabi talks

At least 33 people are now known to have died in the glide-bomb strike on an aid centre in Komyshuvakha, Zaporizhzhia, and President Zelensky called it “one of the largest mass killings committed by Russia during this war”. Russian strikes also hit a hospice in Dnipro and a hospital in Kharkiv. The Kremlin confirmed it will attend US-brokered talks in Abu Dhabi on 10–11 November.

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At least 38 civilians were killed across Ukraine in 24 hours. Kyiv’s water supply was cut entirely and its metro suspended after strikes on energy infrastructure in nine regions. Russia’s defence ministry claimed the Komyshuvakha strike killed 25 servicemen; the UN monitoring mission said it appeared to violate “the most fundamental principles” of humanitarian law. The Abu Dhabi meeting would be the first trilateral round since February, and Melania Trump will host Russian and Ukrainian representatives at the White House on Thursday. Mr Zelensky said he had seen no “indication” that Moscow was serious.

Hoax bomb threats disrupt seven flights across Europe

At least seven passenger flights bound for Warsaw, Sofia, Rome and Murcia were searched after bomb threats on Tuesday, including a Ryanair flight from Manchester and a LOT flight from London diverted to Warsaw’s Modlin airport. No devices were found. The government called them “malicious hoax threats”; no one has claimed responsibility.

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The Italian Air Force escorted a Ryanair flight from Dublin to Rome, and an Israel-bound cruise ship was searched in Greece. Rhys Jones of Osprey Flight Solutions called seven threats in a day exceptional: “The lack of clear target state, airline, or route indicates that general disruption to aviation operations is the aim.” Officials have attributed no blame, but the threats come as European governments accuse Russia and Iran of “hybrid attacks” and sabotage. Authorities will co-operate on whether the threats were co-ordinated.

UK UK Domestic Politics

King calls slave trade a ‘shameful chapter’ but offers no apology

Opening the Commonwealth summit in Antigua, the King said the transatlantic slave trade “fills my heart with horror and my soul with the most profound personal sorrow”, and that it “still casts a shadow” over the 56-nation association. He stopped short of a formal apology. Andy Burnham, also at the summit, is open to one but rejects reparations.

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The King spoke of finding ways “to address the wrongs of the past with action for the future”, language of contrition on a Caribbean tour that has revived debate over Britain’s colonial legacy. Mr Burnham is the first prime minister willing to discuss the wording of a formal state apology, which Tony Blair stopped short of in 2006 with an expression of “deep sorrow”. He insists Britons today cannot be held liable for historical wrongs. Commonwealth nations have long sought both an apology and financial redress, so the summit tests whether one can be separated from the other.

MI5 spared contempt proceedings despite lying to three courts

Three senior judges, including the Lady Chief Justice, ruled that MI5 and its officers will not face contempt of court proceedings, although the agency admitted giving false evidence to three courts about an abusive informant known as Agent X. A contempt case would be too complex for the court, they said; police could instead investigate possible misconduct in public office.

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“It would not be in the public interest to initiate contempt proceedings against any individual officer, against the Director General of MI5 or against MI5 itself,” the court said. Sir John Goldring’s inquiry found in July that one senior officer lied repeatedly and identified “serious and systemic failures”. Sir Ken McCallum repeated his apology to the victim, known as Beth, who said she was “deeply disappointed”. The Home Office would not say whether it will refer the matter to police. Of the two officers most criticised, one has resigned and the other faces internal disciplinary proceedings.

Gilt yields climb as Bank is tipped for first rise since 2023

The ten-year gilt yield rose back above 5.2% on Tuesday, recovering from near two-month lows before Thursday’s Bank of England decision. Economists polled by Reuters expect Bank Rate to rise from 3.75% to 4%, its first increase since August 2023, with a 7–2 vote. The FTSE 100 fell 1.1% to 10,638 in a global sell-off.

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Inflation reached 3.5% in September against the Bank’s July forecast of 3.0%, driven by the war’s fuel shock. “Their hands are increasingly being forced, whether they like it or not,” said Stefan Koopman of Rabobank. Markets price three to four more quarter-point rises in 2027, which could take Bank Rate to between 4.75% and 5%. Oxford Economics expects the minutes or Andrew Bailey to signal the peak will be lower. The Bank will also give its first assessment of John Healey’s budget; the decision is due at 12:00 GMT.

Watchdog clears early car finance payouts as Barclays moves first

The Financial Conduct Authority will allow lenders to make early compensation offers to drivers mis-sold car finance, provided they are no worse than its proposed redress scheme, which faces a legal challenge in February. Barclays will begin making offers now. “Fair settlement offers could result in some people getting money sooner,” said the regulator’s Stephen Braviner Roman.

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The FCA expects only a minority of claimants to receive early offers; most must wait for next year’s court case, with scheme payouts unlikely before late 2027. Customers who accept give up any further claim, and there is no obligation to agree. The scheme covers loans taken out between April 2007 and November 2024, mostly where dealers earned commission linked to the interest rate charged. Average payouts of about £829 are expected on some 12 million agreements, costing the industry up to £9.1bn.

Welsh first minister warns BBC cuts risk ‘irreversible deterioration’

Rhun ap Iorwerth has warned the BBC’s director-general, Matt Brittin, that planned cuts in Wales risk an “irreversible deterioration” in its service and could put the corporation in breach of its Royal Charter obligations. BBC Wales announced 58 job cuts in September under UK-wide plans to save £500m. Mr Brittin replied that the BBC takes its duties to Wales “extremely seriously”.

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The letter, co-signed by culture minister Heledd Fychan and copied to Lisa Nandy, singles out Radio Cymru, “the only radio news service through the medium of Welsh”, and warns that cuts there remove services altogether. It also raises concerns about funding for S4C. The Plaid Cymru-led government accepts that the BBC’s funding needs “fundamental reform” but says the changes could alter its Welsh services’ strategic character. Mr Brittin called Welsh-language services “a core part of how we serve audiences in Wales”. He meets the first minister on 18 November.

One To Read Sorry may no longer be the hardest word for Britain when it comes to slavery The Irish Times · Why Andy Burnham will countenance a historic apology for the slave trade while ruling out reparations — and why not everyone in Britain is pleased.

☼

Morning Briefing

Tuesday 3 November 2026 — 07:57 GMT

What It Means For You

Foreign care workers already in the UK who earn at least £25,000 a year will now wait five years for permanent settlement, rather than the 15 originally proposed.
The draft UK–EU food deal would scrap £200 export health certificates and £25 phytosanitary certificates, and allow exports of fresh sausages, burgers and seed potatoes to resume.
Binance customers should see withdrawals restored for more crypto assets in phases, the exchange said, after last week’s record $6.3bn hack.

GEO Geopolitical

US carries out ‘defensive’ strikes on Iran’s Qeshm Island

American forces struck Iranian targets on Qeshm Island, at the mouth of the Strait of Hormuz, late on Monday; US officials called the action limited and defensive, a response to the Revolutionary Guard firing on a US aircraft. Iranian state media reported several explosions. Hours earlier President Trump said: “We had a war with Iran. We won.”

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Officials stressed the strikes were not a resumption of major combat. One told the Wall Street Journal that Washington had deliberately kept the campaign quiet to avoid signalling renewed war. Qeshm hosts a large underground missile site, a naval base and a major desalination plant. Diplomacy continues: Tehran has offered to cut its implementation timetable from seven days to two, reopening Hormuz once the blockade is lifted, and its chief negotiator said on Tuesday that “the ball is now in America’s court to prevent a war”.

Americans vote in midterms seen as referendum on Trump

Control of both chambers of Congress, each held by the Republicans, is at stake in today’s midterm elections. Mr Trump’s approval rating stands at 34% in CNN’s poll average, and voters say the cost of living is their foremost concern. On the eve of polling, the Supreme Court rejected the administration’s bid to set aside 20,000 disputed Californian ballots.

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Democrats must flip four Republican-held Senate seats while holding all their own; CNN has expanded its list of competitive seats to 11, adding South Carolina, with Texas and Kansas rising up the order. Republicans have poured money into traditionally safe contests, and Mr Trump spent his final weekend rallying in Iowa and Kansas. Prediction-market traders put the likelihood of a Democratic Senate at nearly 75%. A Democratic Congress would put a brake on a presidency that has waged war on Iran and imposed sweeping tariffs.

Russian bombs kill 29 at Ukrainian aid centre

At least 29 people were killed and 48 remain missing after at least nine 3,000kg aerial bombs struck a school used as an aid centre in Komyshuvakha, Zaporizhzhia, regional officials said on Tuesday. President Zelensky called the attack “utterly horrific”, saying a second strike hit the place where survivors had sheltered. Washington has announced new peace talks for 10 and 11 November.

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The attack came as fighting resumed in Kherson after a six-day humanitarian truce, the longest of the full-scale war, which allowed hundreds of people trapped in occupied Oleshky to be evacuated. Ukraine’s General Staff said “the enemy used the humanitarian pause to set up their positions”; Dmitry Peskov replied that it was “reasonable to assume” Ukraine had regrouped too. Zelensky said the strike showed Moscow did not want de-escalation. The Russian military has not commented.

Anglo-French force to rehearse Ukraine deployment in Poland

Britain and France will lead Exercise Koalicja in Poland this month, rehearsing how a European force could deploy rapidly to Ukraine after a peace deal. Some 2,800 personnel will take part, including 1,500 French troops and 300 from Britain’s 7th Light Mechanised Brigade. Western officials said troops would be permitted to return fire if attacked by Russian forces.

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“Clearly we will protect our forces against any aggression,” one official said, stressing the posture would be “defensive in nature”. The force would be almost exclusively European and would not rely on American systems such as Starlink; the US has joined discussions but is not contributing troops. Officials insist it would not conduct peacekeeping or ceasefire monitoring, operate under Nato command or deploy to the front line. Its purpose would be reassurance and rebuilding Ukraine’s armed forces.

North Korea denies record $6.3bn Binance hack

Kim Yo Jong, sister of Kim Jong Un, rejected FBI claims that Pyongyang orchestrated the $6.3bn theft from Binance, the largest crypto hack on record, calling them a “grave political provocation”. The FBI and blockchain analysts Elliptic and Chainalysis attribute the attack to the state-backed TraderTraitor group. Binance said it would progressively reopen withdrawals.

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“The FBI is trying to brand the DPRK as a ‘cyber criminal state’,” Kim said, according to the state news agency KCNA. The FBI has asked industry partners to help block transactions involving accounts linked to TraderTraitor. North Korea has long been accused of relying on cyber-crime to finance its sanctioned economy, and analysts are now tracing the movement of billions in stolen funds. The scale of the theft will sharpen pressure on exchanges over custody and security standards.

UK UK Domestic Politics

Mahmood declines to cost settlement climbdown on care workers

The home secretary has refused to say how much scrapping longer settlement waits for foreign care workers already in the UK will cost; the Home Office had suggested the original plan could save £10bn. Shabana Mahmood insisted the state would still save “billions”. Shadow home secretary Chris Philp called it “a U-turn”; the morning papers broadly agree.

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More than 300,000 care workers and adult dependants will be exempt from the extended wait, Channel 4 News reports, though overseas prison officers were left out and could face ten years. Concessions on care workers and retrospection followed pressure from Labour MPs and Angela Rayner, who had called the plans “un-British” before rejoining the Cabinet under Andy Burnham. Nigel Farage branded the move “the beginning of the capitulation”. Ms Mahmood says the full cost will appear in a future impact assessment.

UK and EU agree draft deal scrapping Brexit food checks

Britain and the EU have agreed a 200-page draft sanitary and phytosanitary agreement removing post-Brexit checks on food and agricultural trade, ahead of a UK–EU summit this month. EU member states will consider the text in Brussels on Wednesday, alongside drafts on emissions trading and a youth mobility scheme. It is the most significant element of the Brexit reset so far.

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The deal would remove £200 export health certificates, £25 phytosanitary certificates, inspector fees and sampling charges, and allow exports of fresh sausages, burgers, domestic shellfish and seed potatoes to resume. For Northern Ireland, it would also remove many restrictions on food moving from Great Britain, easing the Irish Sea border. A 15-page draft joint statement for leaders has been circulated too. Every element was on the table under Sir Keir Starmer; the change of leader delayed the summit.

Burnham offers Commonwealth ‘debt reset’ as slavery apology talks begin

Andy Burnham will join the King at the opening of the Commonwealth summit in Antigua and begin talks on a formal UK apology for the slave trade within the next year. Downing Street said he would set out a “debt reset” for members burdened by interest costs. “Britain is bringing a new approach to this meeting,” the prime minister said.

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Reparations have dominated the run-up to the meeting of 56 nations; Sir Keir Starmer had said before the Samoa summit two years ago that they were not on the agenda. Mr Burnham met Barbados’s Mia Mottley, a leading reparations advocate, on Monday. The trip has drawn domestic criticism: No 10 defended routing the government Airbus via Manchester to collect the prime minister, citing security, cost and “operational requirements”. The Conservatives questioned the value for money.

Labour ends Green coalitions in 11 councils over Zionism motion

Labour has withdrawn from power-sharing arrangements with the Greens in 11 councils, including Sheffield, Warwick and Lewes, after the Green Party adopted a policy defining Zionism as racism. Party chair Bridget Phillipson said the policy “crosses a line and we cannot work with any party that supports it”. Zack Polanski said the move would “backfire”.

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Labour issued an ultimatum last month covering 18 councils in England and one in Wales, demanding written reassurance that Green partners condemned the motion within seven days. The motion, passed by members in October, backs a “single democratic Palestinian state” and has bitterly divided senior Greens, with Jewish groups condemning it as antisemitic. The rupture removes a working relationship in councils where neither party commands a majority, and sharpens the contest for progressive voters.

Carla Lockhart quits DUP over Drumcree parade dispute

The Upper Bann MP has left the Democratic Unionist Party with immediate effect, citing a “point of principle”, and will sit in the Commons as an independent unionist. She had urged the DUP to withdraw the deputy first minister to force Michelle O’Neill from office over Sinn Féin’s role in Garvaghy Road protests that blocked an Orange Order parade.

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Ms O’Neill and other senior Sinn Féin figures have been interviewed by police investigating the demonstrations in Portadown; she maintains her involvement was “the right thing to do”. Last week the DUP chose a narrower response, blocking official engagements involving the first minister rather than collapsing the joint office. Ms Lockhart’s departure, after holding the seat since 2019, exposes unionist division over how far to escalate and reduces the DUP’s Westminster representation.

One To Read British peacekeepers in Ukraine could fire back if attacked by Russians The Guardian · What Exercise Koalicja reveals about the shape, rules of engagement and European self-reliance of a post-ceasefire force for Ukraine.

☽

Evening Briefing

Monday 2 November 2026 — 17:55 GMT

What It Means For You

Brent fell almost 8% today to about $105 a barrel; if the slide holds, pressure on petrol and heating costs should ease in the coming weeks.
Economists unanimously expect Bank Rate to rise to 4% on Thursday, which would push up tracker and variable mortgage payments, though savers should see better rates.
Migrants on the route to settlement now face a default ten-year wait unless they meet earnings or public-service thresholds; those earning over £50,271 can still settle after five years.

GEO Geopolitical

Oil plunges as Rubio signals Washington prefers peaceful end to war

Brent crude fell 7.7% to $104.66 a barrel by midday in New York after Marco Rubio said President Trump “hasn’t made a decision” on renewed military action and that the administration “would prefer to do it peacefully”. West Texas Intermediate slid below $97. Abbas Araghchi said an agreement was achievable if Washington “demonstrates goodwill”.

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The move unwinds much of last week’s war premium. Momentum followed a letter from Vice-President JD Vance to Mohsen Rezaei, and a proposal backed by Qatar, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey that would grant UN nuclear inspectors site access in exchange for sanctions relief. President Pezeshkian said the Supreme Leader had authorised the government to pursue dialogue, though Ayatollah Khamenei simultaneously urged the armed forces to meet threats with an immediate response. Rubio stressed that military options remain available.

Iranian delegation leaves Qatar amid fears of post-midterm strikes

Qatari mediators met Iranian officials on Sunday for a third consecutive day in an effort to restart direct talks with Washington. Tehran says it has a two-day plan to halt attacks on Hormuz shipping and resume negotiations, contingent on the American response. The region is braced for possible US and Israeli strikes shortly after Tuesday’s midterm elections.

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President Trump has sent mixed signals. On Saturday he said negotiations were “going fine” and that he was not “in much of a hurry”; on Sunday he told an Iowa rally that “the only reason why I’m not finished with Iran is I want to be nice”. The midterms therefore form a natural decision point. Markets have chosen to price the diplomatic track, but the Hormuz proposal remains unaccepted and the military option has not been withdrawn.

Election chief rejects Likud bid to delay certifying Israeli result

Justice Noam Sohlberg refused a Likud request to postpone certification of the election, ruling that the Central Elections Committee has no authority to withhold results or intervene in an ongoing investigation. Avigdor Liberman said he would not serve with Benjamin Netanyahu “under any circumstances”. Anti-Netanyahu parties hold 67 of 120 Knesset seats.

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Likud continues to claim the vote was “stolen” by non-Zionist Arab parties, citing suspicions of foreign interference. Its lawyer, Ilan Bombach, sought an urgent meeting before certification; Sohlberg declined. President Herzog is due to receive the official results, after which he must consult the parties on who should form a government. Liberman said coalition figures had approached him with “the strangest proposals”, including rotation deals, but the arithmetic currently favours the opposition bloc.

Coordinated cyberattacks sabotage supermarket fridges across six European countries

Hackers seized refrigeration control systems at supermarket chains in Sweden, the Netherlands, Belgium, Ireland, Luxembourg and Estonia, switching evaporators to defrost mode and spoiling food. Affected chains include ICA, Coop, Ahold Delhaize, Colruyt and Carrefour; thirteen Musgrave SuperValu stores in Ireland were hit.

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The attacks targeted refrigeration technology rather than payment or customer data, raising temperatures to roughly 50°C in affected units. Carrefour reported 15 of more than 700 Belgian stores hit, and Colruyt five Spar shops. The incident follows a series of cyberattacks on critical infrastructure across Europe, and will sharpen scrutiny of internet-connected building systems, which typically receive far less security investment than core IT networks. No group had claimed responsibility in the reports reviewed.

Yotova becomes Bulgaria’s first elected female president

Acting President Iliana Yotova won Sunday’s run-off with 57.6% of the vote against 39.5% for the liberal Andrey Gyurov, who conceded. Yotova said she had voted “for national consensus through dialogue, for institutions that work for citizens”. She will be inaugurated on 22 January for a five-year term.

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Yotova, 62, has been acting president since January, when Rumen Radev stepped down to run for parliament; his Moscow-friendly Progressive Bulgaria won 131 of 240 seats in April. She opposes further military aid to Ukraine while professing commitment to a European path. Ursula von der Leyen congratulated her: “For a strong Bulgaria in a strong Europe.” Sofia now joins the cluster of EU capitals sceptical of Ukraine support — even as ISW reports Russian forces lost ground in October for a second consecutive month.

UK UK Domestic Politics

Mahmood unveils earned settlement, doubling default wait to ten years

Shabana Mahmood set out rules ending near-automatic settlement after five years. The default qualifying period rises to ten years; the highest earners may settle within three, while those earning over £50,271 and some public servants, including doctors, nurses and teachers, keep five. Those who breached immigration rules face at least twenty.

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The Home Secretary granted migrant care workers a reprieve from the original proposal to triple their wait to fifteen years, but the regime will still apply to those already in the queue. Chris Philp accused her of having been “forced to surrender to Angela Rayner and the open-borders Labour left”. Immigration remains the Conservatives’ and Reform’s strongest ground: Ipsos finds Reform leads on asylum and immigration by 28% to Labour’s 14%, even as Labour leads overall voting intention by eight points.

Bank of England expected to raise rates for first time since 2023

All 35 economists in a Bloomberg survey expect the Monetary Policy Committee to raise Bank Rate to 4% from 3.75% on Thursday, its first increase in more than three years. Ten-year gilt yields fell to their lowest since 22 September, around 5.2%, as oil retreated.

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Rates have been held at 3.75% for eleven months; the war’s energy shock has since pushed inflation risk back up. Gilts have also been supported by Chancellor John Healey’s first Budget, which adhered to the fiscal rules and largely reassured markets. Monday’s oil slide complicates the Bank’s communication: a hike priced into markets is hard to withhold, but a sustained fall in crude would strengthen the case for signalling that it is a one-off.

FTSE 100 edges higher as BP and Shell slide with crude

The FTSE 100 closed up 0.29% at 10,761.33, while the domestically focused FTSE 250 gained 1.4%. BP fell 4.4% and Shell 3.3% as oil tumbled; Ryanair rose 3.5%. Sterling firmed to $1.3415. October manufacturing PMI rose to 52.8, a five-month high.

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The split between the indices reflects the war trade reversing: oil majors that buoyed the blue-chip index now drag on it, while airlines and domestic cyclicals benefit from cheaper fuel. The PMI carried a sting, however — S&P Global’s Rob Dobson noted input prices rose at one of the sharpest rates on record, the very pressure the Bank of England is expected to respond to on Thursday.

Commons committee says government has failed to deliver China strategy

The Business and Trade Committee’s first report on doing business with China concludes the government has not delivered its 2024 promise of a strategic, long-term approach. Ministers began re-engagement “without having finalised its China audit or published a strategy”, the 102-page report says.

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The committee cites the eleventh-hour blocking of Ming Yang’s £1.5 billion wind-turbine factory on unspecified national-security grounds, after years of negotiation, and the emergency takeover of British Steel from its Chinese owners, as decisions characterised by “reactivity”. The critique lands as Downing Street seeks Chinese investment for growth while tightening security reviews — a tension the still-unpublished China audit was meant to resolve.

Badenoch rejects slavery reparations, provoking Antigua’s prime minister

Kemi Badenoch said the Chogm summit was “yet another opportunity for people to start asking Britain for money because of the slave trade”, adding that Andy Burnham should not apologise. Antigua’s prime minister told ITV News it was “no wonder” she was not prime minister.

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Badenoch argued the Commonwealth should be “looking forwards, not backwards” and that an apology would be “a lever to wedge open the door to ask for cash”. Antigua’s leader renewed his wish for the country to become a republic. The row puts pressure on the Prime Minister over reparatory justice at the summit. Domestically, Badenoch’s position is strengthening: Ipsos puts the Conservatives second on 24%, ahead of Reform for the first time, with her satisfaction rating at 35%.

One To Read

Home Secretary Unveils New Rules for Migrants Settling in the UK

GOV.UK · The full detail of the earned settlement model — the earnings thresholds, public-service routes and penalties that will determine how long migrants wait for indefinite leave.

☼

Morning Briefing

Monday 2 November 2026 — 08:06 GMT

What It Means For You

If you fly with Ryanair next year: its chief executive expects European fares to rise by 10%, “maybe even 20%”, in 2027 as cheap fuel hedges expire. Unhedged jet fuel is at $170 a barrel, and the airline says higher fares will not fully cover a €2bn rise in its fuel bill.
If you have a mortgage or savings: the Bank of England announces its next rate decision on Thursday 5 November. Bank Rate stands at 3.75%; three of nine committee members voted for 4% in September, and the Bank says the Iran war has pushed up energy prices and inflation.
If you are a legal migrant, or employ one: the home secretary puts final settlement rules before MPs today. Most applicants are expected to wait ten years rather than five for indefinite leave to remain, some up to fifteen, with social care workers already in the UK likely to be exempt.

GEO Geopolitical

Iran says two tankers hit mines and caught fire in Hormuz

The Revolutionary Guards say two crude tankers struck mines and caught fire in the Strait of Hormuz, two days after a Qatari gas carrier was attacked. President Trump says the war will end “very soon, one way or the other”: “Either they’ll make a deal, or we’ll just end it.” Abbas Araghchi, the foreign minister, says talks with mediators on a two-day plan to reopen the strait continue.

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The mines are being laid against the southern route along the Omani coast, which Washington promotes and Tehran calls prohibited. The UK Maritime Trade Operations Centre counts 81 attacks on ships in the strait since 6 July, 59 of them on that route, and Iran claims nearly ten ships have struck mines there. Araghchi says Iran wants the United States to have “enough sense to choose diplomacy”, but that no direct talks are taking place, and that whether any are direct or indirect will be decided “once Washington agrees to Iran’s conditions”. Those conditions include lifting the port blockade, releasing frozen assets and easing sanctions. The tanker claims are Iran’s own and have not been independently confirmed.

Israeli election officials reject Netanyahu’s claim the vote was stolen

Israel’s election chief says last Tuesday’s result stands, after the prime minister’s Likud party claimed without evidence that Arab-led parties “stole” the vote with Qatari money. “Even if the suspicions are substantiated, this would not undermine the integrity of the electoral process,” said Noam Sohlberg, appearing with the Shin Bet chief and the attorney general. Qatar calls the allegation “ridiculous and dangerous”.

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The arithmetic explains the row. Netanyahu’s bloc won 53 seats and Gadi Eisenkot’s opposition 48 in the 120-seat Knesset; the three Arab-led parties took a record 19. Together with the Arab parties, Eisenkot would command 67 — a comfortable majority, but one he has previously ruled out. He accuses Netanyahu of an “orchestrated and organised campaign to delegitimise the results”. The Shin Bet’s inquiry into possible foreign interference is described by the elections committee as narrow in scope. Police have released two of three activists linked to the Ra’am party who were arrested carrying cash before polls opened.

Ukrainian and Russian air-raid alert apps hacked as Kherson truce ends

Ukraine’s air-raid alert app sent fake warnings of nuclear and chemical threats around Kyiv on Sunday evening, including a false report that the Oreshnik hypersonic missile had been launched. Hours later Moscow said its own emergencies app had suffered a “massive cyberattack”. Both followed the end of the localised ceasefire in occupied Kherson, the longest of the war.

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“The air alert app appears to have been subjected to enemy influence,” the Ukrainian Air Force said. “There is no radiation threat! Stay calm and follow our updates on our channel.” Ukraine’s Centre for Strategic Communications blamed Russia; Moscow’s Emergencies Ministry named no culprit. The app is used across Ukraine for real-time warnings, so tampering with it is more than a nuisance: it trains people to doubt the one signal that tells them to take shelter. A separate app for the capital worked normally. The Kherson ceasefire, which began on Tuesday and ended on Sunday, was the longest of the war; whether fighting there resumes at full intensity is the next indicator.

Trump makes final pitch as Americans prepare to vote on Tuesday

President Trump closed his midterm campaign with rallies in Florida, Iowa and Kansas — states he once won easily — as polls suggest Democrats could win at least partial control of Congress. Facing anger over prices, he warned that Democrats would “bankrupt your family” and urged supporters to “pretend I’m on the ballot”. Both final speeches were repeatedly interrupted by hecklers.

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The map is the story: a president defending territory in Kansas and Iowa signals how far the war-driven rise in fuel, grocery and healthcare costs has eroded Republican confidence. Trump told supporters that Democrats had left the country in a “dark age” and that he had “quickly turned it into the golden age of America”. He also repeated the slur that Abdul El-Sayed, the Democratic Senate candidate in Michigan, is a “jihadist”. The Democratic House leader, Hakeem Jeffries, says he is “very confident”. Democratic control of either chamber would act as a check on Trump’s power for the last two years of his presidency.

Ryanair warns fares could rise 20% as the war’s fuel shock bites

Ryanair’s half-year profit fell 15% to €2.15bn as the cost of its unhedged fuel doubled, and the airline is weighing temporary pay freezes. “Unless there is a swift resolution of the Middle East conflict, we expect jet-fuel prices to remain elevated well into 2027,” said Michael O’Leary, its chief executive, who expects European fares to rise by up to 20% next year.

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Ryanair has been the best-insulated carrier in Europe, with 80% of this year’s fuel hedged at $67 a barrel; jet fuel now trades at $170. “This is a very significant cost cliff we’re all facing next year,” O’Leary said. The airline expects a €2bn rise in its fuel bill from April 2027 that higher fares will not fully offset, so it is reviewing airport costs, crewing ratios and maturing labour deals. It has already cut its traffic target and will hold winter capacity flat for the first time in years. If the strongest balance sheet in European aviation is freezing pay, weaker rivals face a harder winter.

UK UK Domestic Politics

Mahmood sets out ten-year wait for migrants seeking settlement

The home secretary puts final rules before MPs today under which most legal migrants are expected to wait ten years, not five, for indefinite leave to remain, and some up to fifteen. Social care workers already in the UK are likely to be exempted after Cabinet objections. “To become a part of this country, permanently, is therefore not a right but a privilege,” Shabana Mahmood said.

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The care-worker concession follows pressure from Angela Rayner, who called the original plan “un-British” for changing the rules for people who came in good faith. The wait can be shortened for migrants who earn more or show contribution to their communities under a points-based system. The consultation drew 200,000 responses. Critics, including MPs and health bodies, warn of staff shortages in health and social care and describe the plan as “an iteration of Windrush era policies”. Mahmood is expected to meet union general secretaries today. The Conservatives accused her in September of having “caved in”; the scale of today’s exemptions will decide whether that charge sticks.

Reeves says Britain’s future lies inside the European Union

Rachel Reeves, in her first major intervention since leaving the Treasury, says Brexit made the country “poorer, weaker and less secure”. “I do believe Britain’s future lies in the European Union,” she wrote. Separately, ministers are prepared to spend up to £450m a year letting EU students pay home fees — but only if Brussels admits Britain to its Made in Europe industrial scheme.

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Labour’s 2024 manifesto ruled out free movement, the single market and a customs union, and Andy Burnham says any change would need a mandate at a general election. Reeves wants a youth mobility scheme and “progress towards entry” into the EU’s SAFE defence fund confirmed at the forthcoming UK-EU summit. Kemi Badenoch said she “can’t even believe we are reopening” the Brexit debate. The fees offer is the clearest sign yet of what London will trade: one official said “the biggest prize we are pushing for right now is access to Made in Europe”. Discounted places for EU students may prove awkward at home while graduates complain about their own loans.

Healey signals delay to equal minimum wage for younger workers

The chancellor, John Healey, has declined to promise that 18 to 20-year-olds will receive the full adult minimum wage before the next election, putting a Labour manifesto pledge in doubt. “We’ll take one step at a time,” he said. From this year the younger rate rises to £11.27 an hour against £13.21 for over-20s.

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Labour promised in 2024 to remove “discriminatory age bands”. Healey insists the commitment stands — “There is no question about whether or if, it’s a question of when” — but says he must weigh “those trade-offs that are there between jobs and wages”, calling a million young people out of work “a moral shame on this nation”. The hesitation is likely to anger the unions and parts of the Labour left. He also indicated willingness to make real-terms cuts to some departments to get debt falling, plans the Institute for Fiscal Studies questioned this week. Combined with a possible rate rise on Thursday, the week tests Burnham’s government on its economic credibility.

MPs warn Britain is making up China policy as it goes along

A Commons committee says Britain’s failure to set a coherent China strategy since 2024 has “combined the worst of both worlds”, leaving businesses without opportunities and security risks unaddressed. Liam Byrne, its Labour chairman, warns the UK risks being “cut off” from big European manufacturing contracts as the EU turns protectionist.

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The business and trade committee’s report links the two questions now running through British foreign economic policy. Byrne says “Europe is changing fast” and is “proposing new trade protections as it gets bolder with Beijing and warier of Washington”. He argues ministers “should be prepared to consider dynamic alignment” with the EU, including on tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, as the price of a place in Made in Europe. That puts the committee’s weight behind the same scheme ministers are trying to buy into with student fees. Keir Starmer’s visit to Beijing in January was the first by a prime minister since 2018.

King to address slavery at Commonwealth summit in Antigua

The King will speak on the transatlantic slave trade with “unflinching honesty, sincere sorrow” when he addresses Commonwealth leaders in Antigua on Tuesday, the Palace says. Andy Burnham has said he is “open” to a formal British apology, though not to reparations. Kemi Badenoch called “endless talk about apologies” a “distraction”.

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No British government has formally apologised for slavery or offered reparations; the prime minister’s shift is a change of stance. The Palace was told in advance of his article and says the speech has not been altered in response. Antigua’s prime minister, Gaston Browne, said slavery’s “consequences have not disappeared with the passage of time” and that reparatory justice deserves “sustained international engagement”, which he is pursuing in bilateral talks at the summit. Badenoch said “it is time for the Commonwealth to start looking forwards, not endlessly backwards”. The language of Tuesday’s speech, and any government statement alongside it, is the indicator to watch.

One To Read

How Rachel Reeves Has Mapped Out the Agenda for Burnham’s Government

The Guardian · On Brexit, devolution and investment, the former chancellor is in tune with the man who sacked her. A sharp reading of why her Sunday intervention matters more than a farewell defence of her record.

Weekly Roundup

The stories that defined this week View roundup

Week of 26 October–1 November 2026

The Week In Numbers

John Healey’s first Budget handed about 20 million households a one-off £100 towards energy bills, at a cost of £2.6bn, paid for by doubling the bank surcharge to 6% for 15 months and lifting the tax on savings and property income to 24%, 44% and 49% from April 2027. The OBR cut its 2027 growth forecast to 1% and expects inflation to peak near 3.75%; the IFS identified a £28bn-a-year gap, and the Resolution Foundation expects typical working-age incomes to fall by £1,050, or 3%, by 2029.
Technology stocks had their worst week of the autumn. Alphabet shed just over $500bn in a single session on Thursday after warning that AI summaries were eroding search advertising; Intel fell 29% on Friday, its worst day since 1974, and US tech lost more than $1tn in value. The S&P 500 slid 1.8% on Friday to 7,580, while the FTSE 100 held near 10,730 on the strength of Shell’s best quarter since 2022. Gold fell to a one-year low of about $3,875, down 5.9% in October. Brent spiked to $115.59 on a Houthi strike claim against Ras Tanura and finished near $113.
Binance lost $6.3bn in what is likely the largest exchange hack ever, which the FBI has attributed to North Korea’s Lazarus Group; it says 90% has now been replenished and withdrawals began reopening this morning. Israel’s election left Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc on 53 seats and Gadi Eisenkot’s on 48, both short of 61, with Arab-led parties on a record 19. At least 69 people died in Spain’s worst rail crash in 13 years, and Lula won a fourth term in Brazil with 51.79% of the vote.

What Moved Forward

Healey Delivers a Budget of Modest Relief and Deferred Pain

Domestic

The first Budget of Andy Burnham’s premiership came on Wednesday and was built for “breathing space”, not reform. Households in council tax bands A to D get £100 towards winter energy bills, gas standing charges are abolished during 2027, the 5p fuel duty cut runs on to July and the minimum wage rises 3.9%. Banks and savers pay for it: the surcharge doubles to 6% and the tax on savings and rental income rises four points, although the planned cut to the cash ISA allowance was dropped. Burnham then ruled out an election within twelve months. The measures cover less than a fifth of the expected rise in bills, but the government has shown it can get a Budget through without a market revolt.

The Kherson Truce Holds and Oleshky Is Reached at Last

Geopolitical

A ceasefire brokered by Melania Trump and Pope Leo XIV began in occupied Oleshky on Tuesday, two days early, and was soon extended across the Kherson region without a reported breach. On Friday a convoy of 25 buses carried hundreds of residents out of the devastated town. It was the first joint relief operation of the war; several hundred mostly elderly residents chose to stay. Kherson itself had its first quiet days in years. It is a single humanitarian corridor, not a peace process, and the Kremlin still rejects Volodymyr Zelensky’s broader ceasefire offer. Even so, it shows that a negotiated pause can be agreed and kept, which the war had not managed until now.

Voters Topple Vučić and Return Lula

Geopolitical

Two elections last Sunday ended with decisive results. In Serbia, a leaderless student list that grew out of two years of protest defeated Aleksandar Vučić’s party, which has governed since 2012, on the highest turnout in decades. Vučić conceded before the final count, and the new MPs are already demanding that the police and intelligence chiefs go before the handover is complete. In Brazil, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, now 80, overturned a first-round deficit to beat Flávio Bolsonaro by 4.4 million votes. Bolsonaro demanded the result be annulled, then left the country after his passports were cancelled. In both countries the institutions held up under heavy pressure.

Binance Covers Its Losses as the FBI Names North Korea

Markets

Binance lost $6.3bn on Thursday, a breach wider than first disclosed and the largest exchange hack on record. Chainalysis and TRM Labs blamed the North Korean unit TraderTraitor, and on Saturday the FBI formally attributed the theft to the Lazarus Group. The exchange then moved quickly: it froze about half the funds, set aside more than the stolen sum from its own treasury, and by Saturday said it had replenished 90% of losses, with bitcoin, ethereum and Tether holdings fully restored. Withdrawals began reopening in phases this morning. The theft confirms that Pyongyang is now the most capable thief in crypto, but the industry’s largest firm avoided a run.

What Stalled

Hormuz Diplomacy Circles as the Shooting Resumes

Geopolitical

The week brought plenty of diplomacy over Iran and no settlement. Defence and intelligence chiefs from the Mecca pact states met President Pezeshkian in Tehran and agreed only “to continue the dialogue”. JD Vance wrote to Iran’s security chief offering direct talks in Istanbul or Doha; Tehran acknowledged the letter but sent no reply and kept its seven conditions. Meanwhile the Houthis fired at Saudi Arabia and claimed a strike on Ras Tanura, and a limpet mine disabled a tanker off Oman, the first such attack of the war. Araghchi’s offer to reopen the strait within two days depends on sanctions relief, a US drawdown and the release of frozen funds, which Washington is unlikely to accept. The strait remains shut.

Israel’s Election Produces Deadlock, Not a Government

Geopolitical

Tuesday’s turnout was the highest since records began in the early 1970s, but the result settled nothing. With every vote counted, Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc has 53 seats and Gadi Eisenkot’s 48. Arab-led parties won a record 19 and now hold the balance. Likud has accused them of “stealing” the election, and Shin Bet is investigating claims of illegal Qatari and Turkish funding. Thousands rallied in Tel Aviv on Saturday urging Eisenkot to govern with Arab support, which would give him 67 seats but has no precedent in Israeli politics. President Herzog’s consultations begin this week, and weeks of bargaining or another election look more likely than a quick coalition.

The AI Trade Breaks Down

Markets

Results week tested the AI investment story, and it did not hold up. Alphabet grew revenue 25% but reported a 25% fall in profits and negative free cash flow, and conceded that its own AI summaries were hurting search advertising; it lost $500bn in a day. Amazon fell after hours, and Intel’s 29% collapse on Friday wiped more than $1tn from US technology stocks. Gold, which had been a refuge all year, fell to a one-year low, and the Federal Reserve held rates while two members voted to raise them. For British savers in global trackers, which are heavily weighted to these companies, the week was a reminder of how concentrated their exposure is.

Defence, Welfare and Local Government Reform Postponed

Domestic

For all its short-term giveaways, the Budget put off the hardest decisions. The route to 3% of GDP on defence by 2030 was deferred to next year’s Spending Review, and departments were told to find another 1% of capital savings to cover a £4.7bn hole; Kemi Badenoch called it “a plan to have a plan”. Burnham could not promise a cut to welfare spending, forecast to reach £431bn, before the election. The government withdrew nine of fourteen planned council mergers, including Kent, Devon and Lancashire, while it seeks legal clarity. The DUP also blocked Michelle O’Neill from Burnham’s first National Economic Council for the nations, and the first ministers of Scotland and Wales told him that devolution within their nations is for their own parliaments to decide.

What To Watch Next Week

America’s Midterms and the Strikes Promised to Follow

Geopolitical

Americans vote on Tuesday. Democrats lead the generic ballot by about eight points, and more than 43 million early votes had been cast with five days to go. Losing the House would leave the second half of Donald Trump’s term exposed to subpoenas and budget fights. The more immediate risk is in the Gulf: Trump has said strikes on Iran would not resume until after polling day, has told Gulf allies to prepare for a short, intense campaign, and insists one or two nuclear sites remain to “take care of”. Watch whether Tehran answers the Vance letter before the polls close. If it does not, Brent could move sharply in either direction soon after.

The Bank of England’s November Decision

Markets

Markets expect the Bank of England to raise interest rates this month. The OBR’s inflation forecast of about 3.75%, oil above $110 and ten-year gilt yields near 5.3% have all pointed that way, and the two hawkish dissents at the Federal Reserve add to the pressure. A rise would push up the cost of new and remortgaged home loans just as the Budget’s £100 energy payment arrives, and it would erode Healey’s already reduced headroom by raising the cost of servicing nearly £100bn a year of debt interest. Watch the vote split and the Bank’s guidance on how much of the energy shock it expects to persist into 2027.

The King in Antigua and the Slavery Apology Row

Domestic

The King addresses Commonwealth leaders in Antigua on Tuesday and will speak, the Palace says, with “sincere sorrow” about the transatlantic slave trade. The prime minister has expressed “sorrow and regret” and said he is open to a formal state apology while ruling out reparations, a position that satisfies neither Caribbean governments, which want compensation, nor critics at home who accuse him of drawing the monarch into a political dispute. Protests are expected in St John’s. Watch what the communiqué says, whether Burnham commits to an apology at the summit, and how far the King departs from his government-approved script.

Mahmood’s Settlement Rules and Poundland’s Deadline

Domestic

Shabana Mahmood will put her final decision on indefinite leave to remain before Parliament this week. Most workers would have to wait ten years rather than five, and some lower-paid workers fifteen, though social care staff already in Britain are likely to be exempt. Cabinet colleagues have objected, so watch for further concessions. In the high street, Poundland’s ten-day window to find a rescue deal runs out at the end of the week, with 12,000 jobs at stake after its US owner rejected a takeover offer. Together they will show how Burnham handles immigration and job losses under pressure.

One To Read This Weekend

‘The City Is Alive’: A Brief Peace in Kherson, but Residents Fear What Comes Next

BBC News · A report from a front-line city in its first quiet days for years, under the truce that made this week’s Oleshky evacuation possible. Residents describe a city that has “come back to life”, and their fear that the quiet will not outlast the convoys. With Hormuz still shut, Israel deadlocked and America about to vote, it is a reminder of what a ceasefire means for the people living under one, and of how fragile it is.

Saved Stories

Morning Briefing

What It Means For You

GEO Geopolitical

Trump: Iran war ‘ending fairly soon’ as Saudis down missiles over Riyadh

Abu Dhabi talks open with ‘a little bit of flexibility’, Europe outside

FBI looking into Huang affair, says Trump, as Nvidia shareholders sue

Massie forces Hegseth impeachment vote by Wednesday; Trump calls him ‘sick’

Novaya Gazeta, Russia’s last big independent paper, shuts its doors

UK UK Domestic Politics

Phones to be banned from pupils’ bags and pockets in England’s schools

US tankers moved out of RAF Mildenhall over Iran threat, report says

Bank deputy warns of ‘low-gear economy’ as young people bear the cost

Around 650 more prisoners walk free today in third early-release wave

Jemima Goldsmith says Brand assaulted her and she called police in 2014

Evening Briefing

What It Means For You

GEO Geopolitical

Nvidia sheds $300bn as Huang’s affair with suspected spy is probed

France blames Iran’s Revolutionary Guards for fridge cyber-attacks

Trump questions whether the midterms were ‘honest’ as Miller starts

Migrant boats sink: 39 dead off Senegal, 14 off Crete

FTSE 100 rebounds 1% and oil slides 4.5% on Trump’s Iran remarks

UK UK Domestic Politics

Thames Water asks creditors to push £12bn of debt back to 2028

Burnham warns NHS will ‘struggle’ unless consultants return to pay talks

Poundland cannot buy stock as owner freezes £50m ahead of Thursday deadline

Author of Labour’s Brexit red lines says they deserve ‘dignified retirement’

Rail investigators warn of ‘obvious risk of further tragedy’ at user-worked crossings

Morning Briefing

What It Means For You

GEO Geopolitical

Trump calls new Iran strikes ‘highly unlikely’ as land blockade begins

Herzog hands Eisenkot 28 days to form Israel’s government

Houthi strike damages Aramco tower in Riyadh as Syria sends troops

Jeffries backs Hegseth impeachment as Congress returns to a 11 December deadline

Europe joins Abu Dhabi talks as Russia fires 317 drones overnight

UK UK Domestic Politics

Russell Brand jailed for ten and a half years

Nandy ‘horrified’ by Tory attack over Erasmus announcement on Remembrance Sunday

Ministers poised to cut electric-car sales targets by a quarter

Inquiry into white working-class pupils says whole society must act

Rough sleeping at a year’s high as housing shortage strains Burnham pledge

Weekly Roundup

The Week In Numbers

What Moved Forward

Democrats Sweep Congress and Trump Reaches for the Veto Pen

The Bank Moves First, and Says It May Not Be the Last

Herzog Passes Over Netanyahu and Hands Eisenkot the Mandate

Burnham’s Reset Week: North Sea, Settlement and a Draft Deal With Brussels

What Stalled

Hormuz: Strikes, Mines and a Qatari Plan Nobody Has Signed

The AI Trade Cracks on a Vote About Data Centres

After Oleshky, the War Returns to Kyiv’s Power Grid

Decisions Deferred: Police Mergers, Parliament’s Repairs and the Ten-Year Plan

What To Watch Next Week

Abu Dhabi: The First Three-Way Talks Since February

Trump’s Iran Decision, the Qatari Bridge and Monday’s Oil Open

Brand Sentenced, Prisoners Released and the Consultants’ Final Fortnight

The Fed Repricing, the Last Two Senate Seats and the FTSE’s Nerve

Why the US Midterms Sparked an AI Stock Selloff

Morning Briefing

What It Means For You

GEO Geopolitical

US extends Iran blockade to land routes; aircraft disables cargo ship

IRGC lifts self-imposed 2,000km limit on ballistic missile range

Gunman kills six in Kraków square, including a British citizen

Russia fires 36 ballistic missiles at Kyiv energy grid before Abu Dhabi talks

Saudi coalition downs three Houthi ballistic missiles aimed at Riyadh

UK UK Domestic Politics

King leads two-minute silence at the Cenotaph on Remembrance Sunday

Burnham writes to councils to house rough-sleeping veterans by Christmas

Opinium: Labour 28, Reform 21, Conservatives 20 as Greens climb to 11

Resolution Foundation: Bank forecast means £390 real pay cut by 2027

Consultants’ 48-hour strike on 25 November nears as BMA deadline runs

One To Read

Morning Briefing

What It Means For You

GEO Geopolitical

Trump orders ‘minor’ strikes on Iran as Qatar pushes Hormuz deal