The Daily Brief

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Morning Briefing

Sunday 15 March 2026 — 07:55 GMT

What It Means For You

Petrol averaging 136p/litre but heating oil has doubled in a fortnight — rural households now paying £1,322 for 1,000 litres, up from £592 before the war began
Energy price cap set to rise 10% to £1,801 in July; analysts warn bills could reach £2,500 if Hormuz disruption persists — consider fixing your tariff now
F1 cancellations in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia signal growing disruption to Gulf travel and events — check insurance cover for Middle East destinations

Geopolitical

B-52s and F-35s Strike Isfahan and Shiraz in Heaviest Overnight Raids

American B-52 bombers and Israeli F-35s launched the war’s most intense overnight campaign, hitting military targets across Isfahan, Shiraz, southern Tehran, Dezful and Hamedan. At least 15 people were killed. The IDF confirmed strikes on IRGC headquarters, Basij militia bases and a rocket-engine production facility in Isfahan. Twenty explosions were heard near Shiraz alone.

Dive deeper

The deployment of B-52 strategic bombers represents an escalation in American force posture; their use signals a shift from precision strikes to sustained area bombardment. Isfahan’s military infrastructure sits dangerously close to its UNESCO-listed historic centre, raising concerns over collateral damage. The Pentagon has now conducted more than 8,000 strikes since Day 1 of the conflict. Iran’s Health Ministry reports 1,444 killed and 18,551 wounded — figures that independent observers consider conservative given the scale of the air campaign.

Trump Demands Multinational Fleet to Force Open Strait of Hormuz

President Trump called on China, France, Japan, South Korea and Britain to send warships to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 per cent of global oil normally transits. The US is deploying 2,500 Marines and the USS Tripoli to reinforce its Gulf presence. A Pentagon official conceded the military is “not ready” to escort commercial tankers through the strait.

Dive deeper

The call exposes a central tension in American strategy: Washington launched the war but lacks the naval capacity to simultaneously prosecute it and guarantee freedom of navigation. More than 150 commercial vessels remain anchored outside the strait. Iran has mined sections of the waterway; the US Navy has destroyed 16 minelaying vessels but clearance operations will take weeks. Britain’s Royal Navy withdrew its last frigate from the Gulf in 2025, leaving it poorly placed to contribute to any escort mission.

North Korea Fires Ten Ballistic Missiles During US-South Korea Drills

Pyongyang launched approximately ten ballistic missiles from the Sunan area toward the East Sea, with projectiles travelling 350 kilometres. Kim Jong Un oversaw a separate test of twelve 600mm nuclear-capable multiple rocket launchers. The launches coincide with the Freedom Shield exercises involving 18,000 troops, running until 19 March.

Dive deeper

The simultaneous ballistic missile and rocket launcher tests represent North Korea’s most provocative show of force since January. Kim described the weapons as a means of “deterring war” but warned they could deliver a “massive, destructive strike” in response to provocation. The timing is calculated: with American military resources stretched across the Middle East, Pyongyang sees an opportunity to test boundaries. Japan’s coastguard issued navigation warnings but no debris reached its exclusive economic zone.

Formula 1 Cancels Bahrain and Saudi Grands Prix Over Gulf Security

Formula 1 confirmed the cancellation of both the Bahrain and Saudi Arabian rounds scheduled for April, reducing the 2026 calendar to 22 races. Both countries have been struck by Iranian retaliatory attacks. CEO Stefano Domenicali called it “unfortunately the right” decision. The cancellations leave a five-week gap before the Miami Grand Prix on 3 May.

Dive deeper

The cancellations carry significant financial implications: Saudi Arabia pays an estimated $65 million in hosting fees, whilst Bahrain pays $55 million. Neither race will be replaced on the schedule. The decision reflects insurers’ refusal to underwrite events in the Gulf region — a pattern extending well beyond motorsport. Airlines have rerouted flights away from Gulf airspace, adding hours and fuel costs to Asian and Australian routes. The broader message is clear: the economic disruption of the Iran conflict now extends far beyond oil markets.

EU Opens Backdoor Diplomacy With Tehran as War Enters Day 16

France and Italy have begun discreet negotiations with Iran, according to the Financial Times, in the first significant European diplomatic initiative since the conflict began on 28 February. The talks focus on humanitarian corridors and a potential ceasefire framework. Separately, Iran’s war dead have passed 1,444, with 18,551 wounded and 825 killed in Israeli strikes on Lebanon.

Dive deeper

The European initiative represents a departure from the Franco-British alignment with Washington that characterised the first two weeks of the conflict. Paris and Rome are motivated partly by energy security — both rely heavily on Qatari LNG shipments disrupted by the Hormuz blockade — and partly by domestic political pressure over civilian casualties. The talks are embryonic and lack American endorsement; Washington has signalled it is “not ready for a deal”. Diplomats describe the effort as an attempt to create off-ramps before the conflict escalates further.

UK Domestic Politics

Al Quds Day Protests Proceed in London Despite March Ban

Thousands gathered for static demonstrations in central London after the Home Secretary banned the annual Al Quds Day march — the first such order since 2012. Pro-Iran protesters assembled at Albert Embankment whilst counter-protesters gathered on Millbank. The Metropolitan Police deployed significant resources to maintain separation. Protesters also condemned Israel’s closure of Al-Aqsa Mosque.

Dive deeper

The march ban reflects the heightened domestic security environment; MI5 has foiled more than 20 Iranian state-backed plots against UK targets in the past year. However, static assemblies cannot legally be prohibited, limiting the practical effect of the order. The Islamic Human Rights Commission has launched a legal challenge. The protests test the Government’s ability to balance free expression against genuine security threats — a tension that will intensify as the Iran conflict continues and community divisions deepen.

Energy Price Cap to Surge 10% to £1,801 in July

Ofgem analysts project the energy price cap will rise to £1,801 per household from July, a 10 per cent increase on the £1,641 April level. The Government is cutting levies worth £130 from April bills, but this will be overwhelmed by the oil shock. The Treasury is considering targeted support for vulnerable households when the current cap expires in June.

Dive deeper

The projected cap increase underscores how rapidly the Iran conflict has reversed progress on energy costs. The April cap of £1,641 was supposed to mark the lowest level since the 2022 crisis; instead, wholesale gas prices have surged as Qatar’s LNG exports remain suspended. If disruptions persist beyond six weeks, analysts warn bills could reach £2,500 — approaching the emergency levels of winter 2022–23. The Resolution Foundation estimates that the poorest fifth of households spend three times more of their income on energy than the richest fifth.

Petrol Prices Rise Fastest Since 2022 as Heating Oil Doubles

Average unleaded petrol reached 135.67p per litre, up 3.5p in a week, with diesel at 149p. Heating oil costs have doubled in a fortnight: a 1,000-litre order now costs £1,322, up from £592 before the conflict. Bloomberg reported UK petrol prices have risen at their fastest rate since the 2022 energy crisis. Rural households reliant on oil heating are worst affected.

Dive deeper

The surge is driven by Brent crude holding above $103, with the Strait of Hormuz blockade removing roughly 8 million barrels per day from global supply. The IEA’s record 400-million-barrel reserve release has so far failed to stabilise prices. Forecourt premiums in the South East have reached 155p per litre. The RAC warned that further increases are “inevitable” if Hormuz shipping does not resume within weeks. Northern Ireland, where many households rely on oil heating, faces a particularly acute crisis.

Labour Polls at 20% With 37 Councils Projected to Change Hands

Ward-level modelling by PollCheck projects 37 councils will change control on 7 May, with Labour facing its heaviest losses in northern metropolitan boroughs including Tameside, Stockport and Bolton. The party polled 35 per cent when these seats were last contested; it now polls around 20 per cent. Reform UK is projected to take control in Essex, Norfolk and Suffolk.

Dive deeper

London’s 1,800 seats represent Labour’s most vulnerable flank, with the Greens threatening inner London wards over Gaza and the Government’s record. The Gorton and Denton by-election — where the Greens won a seat Labour held for a century — provided a foretaste. Labour’s net approval stands at minus 32 per cent, weighed down by the Mandelson scandal, stalling growth and the immigration revolt. The Conservatives face parallel losses to Reform in the shires, suggesting a fundamental realignment rather than a simple mid-term swing.

Electoral Commission to Draft Campaign Code Ahead of May Elections

The Electoral Commission has agreed to work with the Government, Speaker and opposition parties to develop a campaigning code of conduct, aiming to have draft principles in place before May. The move follows concerns about candidate safety and disinformation. Separately, the Government responded to the Speaker’s Conference reports on the security of MPs and candidates.

Dive deeper

The initiative reflects mounting anxiety about the conduct of the May elections amid a febrile political atmosphere. The Iran conflict, domestic terrorism threats and the fragmentation of party politics have all contributed to a deteriorating environment for candidates. The combined Conservative and Labour vote share has fallen to 38.2 per cent, down from 57.4 per cent at the 2024 general election. A voluntary code may prove insufficient; some MPs have called for statutory protections, particularly after a series of threats and physical attacks on elected representatives.

One To Read

The Economic Costs of the Iran War: Oil Prices, Munitions, and More

Foreign Policy · A comprehensive assessment of the conflict’s financial toll — from $11 billion in munitions burned in six days to the disruption of 20 per cent of global oil supply.

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Evening Briefing

Sunday 15 March 2026 — 17:55 GMT

What It Means For You

Brent crude holding above $103; RAC forecasts petrol to hit 142p/litre within days — fill up now if your tank is low
VIX volatility index surged 8.5% to 29.49 — pension and ISA holders should expect further short-term portfolio swings
Bank of England rate decision on Thursday; markets now pricing a hold at 3.75% as inflation risks from oil shock cloud the outlook

Geopolitical

Israel Denies Interceptor Shortage as Iran Missile Barrages Intensify

↻ This morning: heavy overnight strikes on Iran → This evening: Iran retaliating with missile salvos on central Israel

The IDF denied reports that Israel is running critically low on missile interceptors, hours after approving an emergency NIS 2.6 billion defence procurement. Semafor reported US officials confirmed the shortage. Iran fired seven missile salvos at Israeli cities on Sunday, wounding three in Eilat including a child. Tehran is now deploying cluster munitions to overwhelm air defences.

Dive deeper

The interceptor dispute is significant: Israel entered this conflict with depleted stocks after last year’s exchanges with Iran. Each Arrow-3 interceptor costs roughly $3.5 million, whilst Iran’s ballistic missiles cost a fraction. The cluster munition tactic forces multiple intercepts per incoming warhead. The emergency budget transfer suggests the official denial is, at best, an exercise in strategic communication. American resupply flights from Ramstein have intensified, but production bottlenecks limit how quickly stocks can be replenished.

Trump Says Iran ‘Wants a Deal’ but Terms Not Good Enough

↻ This morning: EU backdoor diplomacy → This evening: Trump claims Tehran seeking deal, Iran denies

President Trump told NBC News that Iran “wants to make a deal” but that he is “not ready” because terms are insufficient. Tehran swiftly denied requesting any ceasefire, with Foreign Minister Araghchi declaring Iran “ready to defend as long as it takes”. He added that Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium is buried “under the rubble” with no plans to recover it.

Dive deeper

The diplomatic signals are contradictory and possibly deliberate on both sides. Trump’s comments may be aimed at domestic audiences wearying of rising fuel prices, whilst Iran’s defiance plays to its population enduring a sustained bombing campaign. The uranium disclosure is particularly alarming: if enrichment infrastructure is genuinely buried, verification becomes impossible and a key Western war aim — dismantling Iran’s nuclear programme — may already have failed. European mediators are watching closely but lack leverage without American endorsement.

Ukraine Strikes Russian Oil Refinery as EU Renews Sanctions

Ukraine’s forces struck the Afipsky oil refinery and Port Kavkaz in Russia’s Krasnodar region on Saturday. Russia responded with 68 missiles and 430 drones targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure, killing six in the Zaporizhia and Kyiv regions. The EU voted to extend sanctions against 2,600 Russian-linked individuals and entities until September.

Dive deeper

Ukraine’s long-range strikes on Russian energy infrastructure have become a sustained campaign, degrading Moscow’s refining capacity at a time when global oil markets are already strained by the Hormuz closure. The EU sanctions renewal passed with unanimous support for the first time since 2024, suggesting the Iran conflict has paradoxically strengthened European solidarity on Russia. Moscow continues to supply Iran with Shahed drones, creating a feedback loop of mutual military support that complicates Western strategy on both fronts.

North Korea Tests Ten Ballistic Missiles During US-South Korea Drills

Pyongyang launched approximately ten ballistic missiles from Sunan toward the East Sea, travelling 350 kilometres. Kim Jong Un separately oversaw a test of twelve 600mm nuclear-capable rocket launchers. The provocations coincide with Freedom Shield exercises involving 18,000 troops, running until 19 March.

Dive deeper

North Korea’s timing is calculated: with American military assets concentrated in the Middle East, Pyongyang sees an opportunity to test Washington’s capacity for multi-theatre deterrence. The 600mm rocket launchers are capable of delivering tactical nuclear warheads to targets across South Korea. Japan issued navigation warnings but no debris entered its exclusive economic zone. The broader pattern is clear: US adversaries are probing whilst America’s attention and resources are fixed on Iran.

Iran Vows to Kill Netanyahu as Gulf War Toll Passes 2,250

Iran’s IRGC publicly threatened to assassinate Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, marking a significant rhetorical escalation. The combined death toll across Iran, Lebanon and the wider region has surpassed 2,250 since 28 February. In Lebanon alone, 850 have been killed since Israeli strikes began on 2 March. Thirteen US service members have died.

Dive deeper

The assassination threat, broadcast on Iranian state television, is unprecedented in its directness and reflects the regime’s desperation after sixteen days of sustained bombardment. The rising civilian toll in Iran — now exceeding 1,444 dead and 18,551 wounded — has fuelled domestic anger. Independent observers consider these figures conservative. The Lebanon front has reopened in earnest, with Hezbollah launching daily rocket barrages into northern Israel. The multi-front nature of the conflict is stretching Israeli and American resources to their limits.

UK Domestic Politics

Hundreds Defy Al Quds March Ban in London; Arrests Made

Hundreds of pro-Palestinian demonstrators gathered in central London despite the Home Secretary’s ban on the Al Quds Day march — the first such order since 2012. Police permitted static protests: pro-Iran groups assembled at Albert Embankment whilst counter-demonstrators waved US and Israeli flags on Millbank. Several arrests were made, including for refusing to remove face coverings.

Dive deeper

The ban tested the limits of public order powers: whilst marches can be prohibited, static assemblies cannot be legally stopped. The Islamic Human Rights Commission has launched a judicial review. The split-screen nature of the demonstrations — Iranian regime supporters on one bank, exiled monarchists chanting for Reza Pahlavi on the other — illustrates how the Middle East conflict has imported complex geopolitical fault lines into British domestic politics. MI5 has foiled more than 20 Iranian state-backed plots against UK targets in the past year.

Mandelson Files Reveal ‘Reputational Risk’ Warnings to Starmer

The first tranche of 147 pages covering Lord Mandelson’s appointment as US ambassador was published on Tuesday. Documents show officials warned Starmer of “reputational risk” from Mandelson’s continued relationship with Jeffrey Epstein between 2009 and 2011. National Security Adviser Jonathan Powell described the appointment as “weirdly rushed”. Mandelson received £75,000 in severance.

Dive deeper

The documents are damaging because they show the Prime Minister was explicitly advised of the risks before proceeding. Mandelson initially sought £500,000 in severance — equivalent to four years’ salary — before settling for £75,000. The Conservative opposition has called for a second tranche of documents. The affair compounds Labour’s difficulties: the party’s poll ratings have fallen to 20 per cent, and the Mandelson scandal remains a persistent source of negative coverage ahead of May’s local elections.

Farm Inheritance Tax Relief Raised to £2.5 Million After Protests

The Government announced the combined Agricultural Property Relief and Business Property Relief threshold will rise from the originally proposed £1 million to £2.5 million from 6 April. Individual farmers can now pass on up to £2.825 million tax-free; couples can shelter £5 million. Inheritance tax above the threshold will attract 50 per cent relief. Payment may be spread over ten years interest-free.

Dive deeper

The concession represents a significant retreat by the Treasury after months of protests, including tractor blockades of Westminster. The NFU had argued the original £1 million threshold would affect 70,000 working farms. However, the CLA maintains even £2.5 million is insufficient for larger arable operations where land values exceed £10,000 per acre. The seven-year refresh mechanism and spousal transfer provisions soften the blow, but the principle of taxing agricultural assets on death — previously untouched — has been established.

Defence Spending Pledge Reaches 2.6% of GDP by 2027

Rachel Reeves reiterated the Government’s commitment to raise defence spending to 2.6 per cent of GDP by 2027, equivalent to £36 billion or £500 per person annually. An additional £650 million was committed in January. The long-term target remains 3.5 per cent by 2035, driven by the Iran conflict and the continuing threat from Russia.

Dive deeper

The defence uplift is the largest since the Cold War but still falls short of what military chiefs say is necessary. The Royal Navy withdrew its last frigate from the Gulf in 2025, leaving Britain unable to contribute meaningfully to any Hormuz escort mission. The Institute for Fiscal Studies notes that reaching 3.5 per cent would require either tax rises or cuts elsewhere in public spending — a tension the Government has yet to resolve. The Iran war has made the case for rearmament politically unanswerable but fiscally painful.

Immigration Overhaul Delayed to Autumn as ILR Period Doubles

The Home Office confirmed that plans to double the qualifying period for indefinite leave to remain from five to ten years will now take effect in autumn 2026, delayed from April. The change affects most work and long-term visa routes. Separately, new rules ban citizens of Afghanistan, Cameroon, Myanmar and Sudan from certain visa categories under a “visa brake” policy.

Dive deeper

The delay reflects the scale of parliamentary scrutiny required; the Home Affairs Committee published a critical report on the earned settlement proposals on 13 March, warning of severe consequences for the adult social care workforce. The visa brake affecting four nationalities is legally untested and has drawn criticism from refugee organisations. A Westminster Hall debate on the reforms is scheduled for Tuesday. The broader immigration package represents the most significant tightening since Brexit, yet Labour’s poll ratings suggest voters remain unconvinced.

One To Read

How Will the Iran War Affect the Global Economy?

Chatham House · Expert analysis of the conflict’s cascading economic effects — from oil shocks and inflation to disrupted supply chains and the limits of strategic reserves.

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Weekly Roundup

View roundup

Week of 8 March–14 March 2026

The Week In Numbers

Brent crude surged from $88 to $103 per barrel — a 17 per cent rise in four trading days as the Hormuz blockade tightened and Iran expanded attacks to the UAE’s Fujairah oil hub
The IEA released a record 400 million barrels of emergency oil stocks — three times the previous record — yet prices continued to climb, signalling the market judges the intervention insufficient
UK GDP flatlined for a sixth consecutive month as the OBR halved its 2026 growth forecast to 1.1 per cent; unemployment reached 5.2 per cent, the highest in five years

↑ What Moved Forward

Ukraine–US Peace Framework Nears Completion

Geopolitical

Presidents Trump and Zelenskyy confirmed agreement on 90–95 per cent of a ceasefire framework following marathon talks in Jeddah — the most concrete diplomatic advance since the 2022 Istanbul negotiations. Ukraine simultaneously recaptured 244 square kilometres while Russian territorial gains fell to a 20-month low, strengthening Kyiv’s negotiating hand.

Hereditary Peers Bill Clears Final Hurdle

Domestic

Parliament’s biggest constitutional reform in a generation passed its final stage this week. Up to 92 hereditary peers will leave the House of Lords after 700 years, completing a process first attempted a quarter of a century ago. Royal assent is expected imminently.

GCC States Unite at UN Security Council

Geopolitical

All six Gulf Cooperation Council states submitted a joint resolution demanding Iran cease attacks on neighbouring countries — a rare display of unity from monarchies that seldom act in concert on military matters. Qatar and Oman retain diplomatic channels with Tehran, positioning themselves as potential mediators.

Employment Rights Act Reforms Confirmed for April

Domestic

The most significant expansion of workers’ rights in a generation takes effect on 6 April: statutory sick pay from day one, zero-hours contract protections, and day-one paternity leave for 1.3 million low-paid workers previously excluded.

• What Stalled

Bank of England Rate Cuts Effectively Shelved

Markets

Three weeks ago a March cut was near-certain. The oil shock has inverted the calculus entirely: markets now price just a 28 per cent chance of a cut on Thursday. With inflation at 3.0 per cent and oil above $100, the easing cycle may not resume until 2027 — trapping homeowners in higher repayments even as the economy stagnates.

Russia Blocks Ukraine Ceasefire Despite Framework

Geopolitical

Putin told the US envoy there were “issues to resolve” and launched 559 drones and missiles at Kyiv hours later. Moscow’s calculus is transparent: the Iran war boosts Russian oil revenues above budget assumptions while consuming American diplomatic bandwidth. The longer the Gulf conflict persists, the further Ukraine recedes from Western attention.

Labour Immigration Reforms Delayed by Rebellion

Domestic

More than 100 Labour MPs — a quarter of the parliamentary party — revolted against sweeping immigration changes, forcing the Government to delay new settlement rules from April to autumn. The 20-year wait for indefinite leave to remain remains the most contentious element. It is the largest internal challenge of Starmer’s premiership.

→ What To Watch Next Week

Bank of England Rate Decision — Thursday 19 March

Markets

The MPC meets with the worst set of cross-currents in years: six months of zero growth arguing for stimulus, yet an oil-driven inflation surge demanding restraint. The vote split was 5–4 in February. A hold is expected, but the accompanying statement will be parsed for any signal on the easing timeline.

Trump’s Coalition Flotilla — Who Signs Up?

Geopolitical

The President has named Britain, France, Japan, South Korea and China as desired participants in a multinational fleet to force Hormuz open. No country has publicly committed. Starmer faces acute pressure: joining risks deeper entanglement; refusing risks the transatlantic relationship at a moment of economic vulnerability.

Al Quds Day Protests — Sunday 15 March

Domestic

The Home Secretary’s ban on the Al Quds march — the first march prohibition since 2012 — faces a legal challenge. Organisers plan a static protest regardless. Counter-demonstrations have been announced. The Metropolitan Police warns of a “robust response” to any march attempt, with community tensions at their highest since the Iran conflict began.

Petrol Prices Set to Breach 150p

Domestic

With Brent above $103 and the Hormuz blockade entering its third week, forecourt prices are on track to exceed 145p per litre nationally. The RAC estimates an average fill will cost £80. The Chancellor confirmed that the 15-year fuel duty freeze ends in September, adding further pressure later in the year.

One To Read This Weekend

The Global Price Tag of War in the Middle East

World Economic Forum · A comprehensive accounting of how the conflict’s cascading economic fallout — from oil and shipping to food systems and supply chains — is reshaping the global economy in ways that may persist long after the fighting stops.

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Evening Briefing

Saturday 14 March 2026 — 17:56 GMT

What It Means For You

Brent crude surges past $103 as Trump calls for a multinational warship coalition — petrol prices likely to breach 145p/litre next week; an average fill now costs £80
FTSE 100 slides to 10,226, its lowest close since early February — pension and ISA holders face a third consecutive week of losses driven by the energy crisis
Bank of England rate decision on Thursday now expected to be a hold at 3.75% — mortgage holders should budget for unchanged repayments into the summer as inflation pressures build

Geopolitical

Trump Demands Multinational Warship Fleet to Reopen Hormuz

↻ This morning: US strikes Kharg military targets → This evening: Trump calls for coalition to force strait open

President Trump announced that “many countries” will send warships to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, naming China, France, Japan, South Korea and Britain as desired participants. He vowed the US would “bomb the hell out of the shoreline” and continue destroying Iranian vessels. The Pentagon confirmed the USS Tripoli and its Marine expeditionary unit are deploying to the Gulf.

Dive deeper

The call for a multinational flotilla marks a shift from unilateral action to coalition-building, though no country has publicly confirmed participation. Britain’s inclusion on Trump’s list creates a political dilemma for Starmer, who has so far limited UK involvement to defensive RAF sorties. The Strait remains effectively closed to commercial traffic, with tanker transits down 70 per cent. Iran has mined approaches and deployed fast-attack craft. Analysts at the IISS warn that forced reopening risks escalation to a full naval war in confined waters.

Iran Strikes UAE as IRGC Declares US Interests ‘Legitimate Targets’

↻ This morning: IRGC fires at Israel → This evening: Missiles hit UAE; Fujairah oil hub ablaze

UAE air defences intercepted nine ballistic missiles and 33 drones launched from Iran on Saturday. A fire broke out at the Fujairah oil terminal, one of the world’s largest bunkering hubs. The IRGC warned that all US interests in the UAE — including ports, docks and military installations — are now legitimate targets and urged civilians to evacuate those areas.

Dive deeper

The escalation to direct attacks on UAE energy infrastructure represents a dangerous widening of the conflict. Fujairah handles roughly 6 million barrels of oil storage and is a critical bunkering point for ships that cannot transit Hormuz. Iran has now struck targets in Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE, effectively turning the entire Gulf into a combat zone. The IRGC’s explicit warning to civilians suggests further strikes are imminent. Dubai reported falling debris striking a building façade, though no casualties were confirmed.

Brent Crude Breaks $103 as Hormuz Blockade Enters Third Week

Oil prices surged past $103 per barrel — the highest since July 2022 — as the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz entered its third week. Goldman Sachs warned Brent could reach $135 if the strait remains shut for four months. The IEA’s record 400-million-barrel reserve release has failed to arrest the rise, with traders judging the volumes insufficient against an 8-million-barrel daily deficit.

Dive deeper

The breach of $103 reflects market scepticism that diplomatic or military action can reopen Hormuz quickly. Iran has mined the approaches and deployed at least 16 minelaying vessels, most of which the US Navy has since destroyed. Strategic reserves across IEA members are being drawn down at roughly 4 million barrels per day; at this rate, reserves could fall below the 90-day minimum by late summer. California petrol prices have already exceeded $5 per gallon, and European forecourt prices are following.

Ukraine Strikes Russian Electronics Plant Making Missile Components

Ukrainian forces used Storm Shadow missiles to destroy a Russian plant producing microchips and high-end electronics for cruise missiles. Separately, Ukraine claimed a “successful” strike on two Russian ships ferrying weapons through the Kerch Strait. Russian casualties now exceed 1.28 million since February 2022, with 860 killed or wounded in the past 24 hours.

Dive deeper

The strike on the electronics facility targets a critical bottleneck in Russia’s precision-weapons supply chain. Moscow has struggled to source Western-made components since sanctions tightened, and domestic production capacity remains limited. The Kerch Strait attack disrupts a key logistics route for supplying Russian forces in Crimea. Peace talks remain stalled; Zelenskyy noted that White House officials cannot travel due to the Iran campaign, while Russia shows no urgency to negotiate as oil revenues surge.

Iran Death Toll Reaches 1,444 on Day 15 of US-Israel Campaign

Iran’s Health Ministry reported 1,444 killed and 18,551 injured since the conflict began on 28 February. Israeli attacks have killed at least 773 people in Lebanon since 2 March. Australia ordered all non-essential officials to leave the UAE and Israel and urged citizens to evacuate the wider Middle East region.

Dive deeper

The mounting casualty figures have intensified international calls for a ceasefire, though the UN Security Council remains deadlocked by Russian and Chinese vetoes. The WHO has warned that “black rain” from burning oil facilities over Tehran poses acute respiratory risks to 14 million residents. Iran’s ballistic missile capacity has been degraded by an estimated 90 per cent, yet the IRGC continues launching salvos from underground facilities that have proved difficult to neutralise. The humanitarian situation is deteriorating rapidly as medical supplies run short.

UK Domestic Politics

Starmer Faces Pressure to Join Hormuz Warship Coalition

Trump’s call for Britain to send warships to the Strait of Hormuz places fresh pressure on Keir Starmer, who has confined UK involvement to defensive RAF sorties and base access. Defence sources said the Royal Navy has a frigate and destroyer in the region but no decision has been taken on committing to a coalition. Shadow defence secretary James Cartlidge urged the Government to “step up”.

Dive deeper

The request exposes the limits of Starmer’s carefully calibrated position. Committing warships risks drawing Britain deeper into the conflict; refusing risks damaging the transatlantic relationship at a moment of acute economic vulnerability. The Royal Navy’s capacity is also in question, with only 15 of 19 frigates and destroyers currently operational. Labour backbenchers who revolted over immigration reform are unlikely to welcome further military entanglement, adding to the Prime Minister’s domestic difficulties ahead of the May local elections.

Immigration Rebels Force Government to Review Settlement Timetable

The Government confirmed that new “earned settlement” rules — requiring up to 20 years for refugees to gain indefinite leave to remain — will be delayed from April to autumn 2026 following pressure from more than 100 Labour MPs. The Home Affairs Committee published its report criticising the reforms as “disproportionate”. Immigration minister Seema Malhotra said transitional arrangements are “under review”.

Dive deeper

The delay represents a significant concession to the largest backbench rebellion of Starmer’s premiership. The original timetable would have imposed the 20-year settlement threshold on asylum applications submitted from 2 March. Critics argue the policy effectively abolishes permanent residency for lower-paid migrants. The Government is caught between Reform UK’s populist pressure on immigration and its own parliamentary party’s resistance. A Westminster Hall debate on the reforms is expected in the coming weeks.

Al Quds March Ban Faces Legal Challenge Ahead of Tomorrow’s Protest

The Islamic Human Rights Commission confirmed it will legally challenge the Home Secretary’s ban on the Al Quds Day march — the first march prohibition since 2012. The ban covers central London until 11 April. Organisers said a static protest will proceed on Sunday regardless. The Metropolitan Police warned that any march would be met with “a robust response”.

Dive deeper

The ban tests the boundary between public order and the right to protest at a moment of heightened tension. Static assemblies cannot legally be prohibited, creating a grey area that organisers intend to exploit. MI5 has foiled more than 20 Iranian state-backed plots against UK targets in the past year, lending weight to the security justification. Counter-protests from pro-Israel and far-right groups have been announced, raising the prospect of confrontation regardless of the march ban.

Reform UK Set to Win Most Council Seats Nationally in May Elections

Bookmakers now price Reform UK at 3/10 to win the most council seats in the 7 May local elections, an implied probability above 75 per cent. Farage has committed £5 million to the campaign. Reform is projected to take control of county councils in Essex, Norfolk and Suffolk. Labour, which won 35 per cent when these seats were last fought, now polls around 20 per cent.

Dive deeper

The projections suggest a generational realignment in English local government. Labour faces losses concentrated in northern metropolitan boroughs, while the Conservatives risk losing their rural heartlands to Reform. The Gorton and Denton by-election in February — where Labour finished third — provided an early signal. With 4,850 seats contested across 136 authorities, the elections represent the most comprehensive test of public opinion since the 2024 general election. Labour’s net approval at minus 32 per cent offers little comfort.

Bank of England Rate Decision Looms as Oil Shock Stalls Easing Cycle

Markets now price only a 28 per cent chance of a rate cut when the MPC meets on Thursday, down from near-certainty before the Iran conflict. The February vote split 5–4 for holding at 3.75 per cent. Economists warn that oil above $100 could add a full percentage point to inflation, potentially delaying cuts into 2027 and adding £500 to the typical household energy bill.

Dive deeper

The MPC faces its most acute dilemma in years. GDP has not expanded since June, unemployment has risen to 5.2 per cent — the highest in five years — yet headline CPI at 3.0 per cent sits a full point above target. The Resolution Foundation estimates that sustained oil prices above $100 will feed through to energy bills within two quarters. Gilt yields at 4.55 per cent reflect market anxiety about the fiscal outlook. The likely hold on Thursday will disappoint homeowners hoping for mortgage relief.

One To Read

How Much Is the War in Iran Costing You?

TIME · A detailed accounting of how the Hormuz closure is feeding through to petrol, electricity, food and shipping costs — and what comes next for household budgets.

☼

Morning Briefing

Saturday 14 March 2026 — 07:57 GMT

What It Means For You

Brent crude holds above $101 for a fourth day; petrol averaging 141p/litre but forecourt premiums in the South East reaching 155p — expect further rises as the Hormuz blockade enters its third week
Bank of England rate decision on Thursday now a near-certain hold at 3.75% — tracker mortgage holders face at least another quarter of unchanged repayments as the oil shock clouds the inflation outlook
IEA releases a record 400 million barrels of emergency oil stocks — designed to cap pump prices but analysts warn the buffer may last only weeks if Hormuz shipping does not resume

Geopolitical

US Bombs Kharg Island Military Targets; Warns Oil Facilities Next

American forces struck every military installation on Iran’s Kharg Island, through which 90 per cent of Tehran’s crude exports pass. President Trump said oil infrastructure was deliberately spared but warned it “may be next” if Iran continues to block the Strait of Hormuz. The Pentagon confirmed the strikes degraded air defences and missile batteries.

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Kharg Island is the linchpin of Iran’s export economy, handling roughly 1.5 million barrels per day before the war. The distinction between military and energy infrastructure on the island is narrow; storage tanks sit adjacent to radar installations. Striking oil facilities would send Brent crude well beyond current levels and risk a direct confrontation with China, which has continued importing Iranian oil via the strait. Defence Secretary Hegseth described the operation as “the most precise campaign in military history”, though independent verification remains impossible.

Iran Fires Missiles at Tel Aviv; Smoke Rises Over Israel’s Commercial Hub

The IRGC launched a fresh salvo of ballistic missiles and drones at Israel in coordination with Hezbollah. Smoke was visible over two locations around Tel Aviv after blasts were heard. Israel’s military said most projectiles were intercepted but acknowledged “limited impacts” in the greater Tel Aviv area.

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The attack represents Iran’s most direct strike on Israel’s commercial heartland since the war began. Previous salvos targeted military airfields and the Negev; hitting Tel Aviv raises the psychological stakes significantly. Iran’s ability to sustain these attacks despite the degradation of 90 per cent of its air defences underscores the resilience of its underground missile programme. Israel has now carried out 7,600 strikes inside Iran and 1,100 in Lebanon since 28 February.

IEA Releases Record 400m Barrels as Oil Crisis Enters Third Week

The International Energy Agency agreed to release 400 million barrels of emergency oil stocks — the largest such action in its history — as global supply falls by an estimated 8 million barrels per day. Brent crude held above $101. Canada contributed 23.6 million barrels as part of the coordinated effort.

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The IEA described the disruption as “the largest in the history of the global oil market”, with exports through the Strait of Hormuz at less than 10 per cent of pre-conflict levels. The 400-million-barrel release represents roughly 50 days’ cover at current deficit rates, buying time but not solving the underlying problem. Goldman Sachs warned that without a reopening of the strait, strategic reserves across IEA members could fall below 90 days’ cover by late summer — a level not seen since the 1970s oil crisis.

Hegseth Claims Iran’s Supreme Leader ‘Wounded and Disfigured’

US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth said he believes Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran’s new supreme leader, is “wounded and likely disfigured”. The State Department offered a $10 million reward for information on Khamenei and other senior officials. Khamenei’s first public statement vowed continued attacks until US bases in the region are closed.

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Mojtaba Khamenei assumed supreme authority after his father Ali Khamenei was killed in the opening strikes on 28 February. Western intelligence agencies remain uncertain whether Mojtaba commands genuine authority over the IRGC or whether operational control has devolved to field commanders. The $10 million bounty is unprecedented for a sitting head of state and signals Washington’s intent to pursue regime decapitation. Iran’s Health Ministry reports 1,444 killed and 18,551 injured since the conflict began.

Ukraine Recovers 244 sq km as Russian Territorial Gains Hit 20-Month Low

Ukrainian forces have recaptured 244 square kilometres in southern Ukraine since January, while Russian territorial gains in February fell to a 20-month low. Russia lost 30 square miles in the past week. Separately, Presidents Trump and Zelenskyy confirmed agreement on 90–95 per cent of a peace framework.

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The battlefield shift reflects both improved Ukrainian drone capabilities and the diversion of Russian military resources. Moscow is providing technical assistance to Iran while its own offensive momentum has stalled. Russian casualties now exceed 1.27 million since February 2022, with 860 killed or wounded in the past 24 hours alone. The near-complete peace framework is the most concrete diplomatic advance since Istanbul, though European leaders remain wary of any deal that rewards territorial conquest. Eleven countries have requested Ukraine’s counter-drone systems.

UK Domestic Politics

Bank of England Rate Hold Expected as Oil Shock Clouds Outlook

Markets now price only a 28 per cent chance of a rate cut when the MPC meets on Thursday, down from 90 per cent before the Iran conflict. The February vote was finely balanced at 5–4. Economists warn that sustained oil prices above $100 could add a full percentage point to inflation, delaying the easing cycle into 2027.

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The swing in expectations is remarkable: barely three weeks ago, a March cut was considered near-certain. The MPC faces an acute dilemma. Growth has flatlined — GDP has not expanded since June — yet headline inflation at 3.0 per cent remains a full point above target, with energy-driven pressures building. The Resolution Foundation estimates sustained high oil prices could add £500 to the typical household energy bill. Markets now expect at most a single cut in 2026, down from two before the war.

More Than 100 Labour MPs Revolt Over Immigration Reforms

A quarter of the parliamentary Labour party has signed a letter urging Starmer to rethink sweeping immigration changes, including a 20-year wait for indefinite leave to remain and 30-month reassessments for refugees. Home Secretary Mahmood announced a £40,000 voluntary departure scheme for rejected asylum seekers. The Government insists “there is absolutely no change whatsoever”.

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The rebellion is the largest internal challenge Starmer has faced as Prime Minister, surpassing even the Epstein-related crisis in February. Thirty-five MPs joined Britain’s largest trade union in opposing the plans. The reforms are designed to neutralise Reform UK’s appeal ahead of May’s local elections, but risk alienating Labour’s urban base. A Westminster Hall debate on the reforms is scheduled for Tuesday. The scale of opposition may force concessions on the 20-year residency threshold, which critics describe as “effectively abolishing settlement for the low-paid”.

Labour Braces for Local Election Losses as Reform Surges

With 4,850 council seats contested on 7 May, Labour faces projected heavy losses concentrated in northern metropolitan boroughs. The party polled 35 per cent when these seats were last fought in 2022; it now polls around 20 per cent. Reform UK is projected to take control of county councils in Essex, Norfolk and Suffolk.

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London’s 1,800 seats represent Labour’s most vulnerable flank. The Gorton and Denton by-election in February — where the Greens won a seat Labour held for a century — provided a foretaste of the challenge. Labour’s net approval rating stands at minus 32 per cent, weighed down by the Mandelson–Epstein scandal, stalling growth and the immigration revolt. The Conservatives face parallel losses to Reform in the shires, suggesting a fundamental realignment of English local politics rather than a simple government-of-the-day swing.

Defence Spending to Rise to 2.5% of GDP by 2027 as OBR Backs Increase

The OBR designated the defence spending increase as a fiscal necessity in its Spring Forecast, backing a path to 2.5 per cent of GDP by 2027 and 3.5 per cent by 2035. Defence expenditure will rise from £62.2 billion this year to £73.5 billion by 2028–29. NATO allies agreed a new 3.5 per cent minimum target at the 2025 summit.

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The OBR’s explicit endorsement is unusual and reflects the deteriorating security environment. The Iran conflict has given political cover for spending that would otherwise face fierce resistance from the Treasury. Reeves described the uplift as “the biggest since the Cold War”, but the £11.3 billion additional commitment by 2028–29 must be funded alongside a fiscal framework already under strain from stalling growth and rising gilt yields. The 5 per cent combined NATO target — including security and intelligence spending — would require further increases well into the 2030s.

NHS Waiting List Falls for Third Month to 7.25 Million

The NHS waiting list in England dropped to 7.25 million treatments in January, the lowest level since February 2023. Winter waiting times were the shortest in four years. However, only 38 per cent of trusts are on track to meet the Government’s March interim target of 65 per cent of patients treated within 18 weeks.

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The three consecutive monthly falls represent genuine progress, driven partly by the Further Faster 20 programme that deployed specialist teams to the 20 trusts with the highest economic inactivity. But the headline number masks significant regional variation: London and the South East are broadly on track, while trusts in the North East and Midlands lag behind. The 18-week target looks likely to be narrowly missed at 63.4 per cent nationally. Rising energy costs threaten to squeeze NHS budgets further, with hospital utility bills already 40 per cent above 2019 levels.

One To Read

The Energy Crisis Could Outlast the Iran War

Fortune · Why the IEA warns that the biggest oil supply disruption in history may leave permanent scars on global energy markets — even after the fighting stops.

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Evening Briefing

Friday 13 March 2026 — 18:30 GMT

What It Means For You

Sterling drops below $1.33 after UK GDP flatlines — holiday money now buys 3% less than a month ago; imported goods face further price rises as the economy stalls
Brent crude holds above $101 for a third session; petrol averaging 166p/litre — filling a 55-litre tank now costs roughly £91, up £10 from a fortnight ago
Hereditary peers to leave the House of Lords after 700 years — Parliament’s biggest constitutional reform in a generation clears its final hurdle this week

Geopolitical

Israel Launches ‘Broad Wave’ of Tehran Strikes; Explosion Rocks State Rally

↻ This morning: 200+ targets hit overnight → This evening: ‘broad wave’ strikes continue; explosion at Al Quds Day rally near senior officials

Israel’s military announced a fresh “broad wave” of strikes across Tehran on Friday after hitting more than 200 targets in western and central Iran over the previous day, including ballistic missile launchers and weapons-production sites. An explosion struck near a state-organised Al Quds Day rally attended by President Pezeshkian and security chief Larijani, killing at least one person. Israel has now carried out 7,600 strikes in Iran since 28 February.

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The targeting of central Tehran during a major public event represents a significant escalation in the psychological dimension of the campaign. Iran’s Health Ministry reports 1,444 people killed and 18,551 injured since the war began. The IDF claims 90 per cent of Iran’s air defences have been degraded, yet Tehran’s retaliatory capacity from hardened underground missile stores remains significant. Defence Secretary Hegseth said he believes new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei is “wounded” and possibly “disfigured”, though this remains unverified.

All Six KC-135 Crew Confirmed Dead; US Death Toll Reaches 13

↻ This morning: four crew reported killed → This evening: all six confirmed dead; US toll now 13

CENTCOM confirmed all six crew members aboard the KC-135 Stratotanker that crashed in western Iraq on Thursday have been killed, bringing the total American death toll to 13 since Operation Epic Fury began. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed responsibility, though the Pentagon maintains the loss was not caused by hostile fire and may have involved a mid-air collision with a second tanker.

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The discrepancy between the militia’s claim and the Pentagon’s account remains unresolved. The second KC-135 made an emergency landing at Ben Gurion Airport in Israel. An investigation is underway but the loss underscores the operational strain of a campaign spanning multiple theatres. The KC-135 fleet is the backbone of US aerial refuelling; sustained attrition would constrain sortie rates. More than 250 US organisations have signed a letter calling on Congress to halt funding for the war, arguing the $11.3 billion spent in the first six days diverts funds from domestic needs.

Israel Destroys Litani Bridge; Warns Lebanon Faces Gaza-Scale Destruction

↻ This morning: Israeli strikes continue in Lebanon → This evening: Litani bridge destroyed; leaflets warn of Gaza-level devastation

Israel struck the Zrarieh Bridge spanning the Litani River in southern Lebanon and dropped leaflets over Beirut warning the country faces the same scale of destruction visited upon Gaza. Israeli attacks killed more than 25 people in Beirut and southern Lebanon on Friday, striking areas of the capital not hit in this conflict or the 2024 war. The Lebanese death toll stands at 773, with 800,000 displaced.

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The destruction of the Litani crossing is designed to sever Hezbollah’s supply lines between northern and southern Lebanon. Israel says it has carried out 1,100 strikes in Lebanon since 28 February. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun declared Hezbollah’s military activities outlawed and demanded the group confine itself to the political sphere — a remarkable shift for a country where Hezbollah has operated as a state within a state for decades. Hezbollah has vowed an “existential” fight, but its leadership has been severely degraded by targeted killings.

GCC Submits UN Resolution Demanding Iran Halt Gulf Attacks

All six Gulf Cooperation Council states submitted a draft UN Security Council resolution demanding Iran “immediately and unconditionally” cease all missile and drone attacks on neighbouring countries. Bahrain tabled the resolution on behalf of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and the UAE. Separately, Oman’s Sultan Haitham spoke with President Pezeshkian, calling for “the language of dialogue and diplomacy” to end the conflict.

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The unified GCC front at the Security Council is significant: these states rarely act in concert on military matters. Iran has struck civilian infrastructure across all six member states, damaging freshwater resources, airports, hotels and shopping centres. Qatar and Oman retain diplomatic channels with Tehran and are positioned as potential mediators. Russia and China, both permanent Security Council members, have yet to indicate whether they will veto the resolution. A 2,200-strong US Marine expeditionary unit is deploying from Okinawa to support operations and potential evacuation missions in the Gulf.

Putin Stalls on Ukraine Ceasefire; Russia Fires 559 Drones and Missiles

↻ This morning: 95% peace framework agreed → This evening: Putin rejects ceasefire; massive overnight strike on Kyiv

Vladimir Putin told US envoy Keith Kellogg there were “issues to resolve” before Russia could accept a ceasefire, effectively rejecting the Trump–Zelenskyy peace framework. Hours later, Russia launched 519 drones and 40 missiles at Ukraine, killing civilians and damaging energy infrastructure in Kyiv. Secretary Rubio said “the ball is now in Russia’s court”.

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The massive strike — one of the deadliest in months — targeted residential buildings and energy infrastructure, leaving parts of Kyiv without electricity or heating. More than ten residential buildings were damaged and rescue teams searched rubble for survivors. Russia’s foot-dragging is strategically rational: the Iran war boosts Moscow’s oil revenues while consuming American diplomatic bandwidth. The Urals blend has climbed above $70 per barrel, well above the $59 assumed in Russia’s 2026 budget. European leaders warned that prolonged US involvement in the Gulf serves Moscow’s strategic interests.

UK Domestic Politics

UK Economy Flatlines in January; Sterling Falls Below $1.33

↻ This morning: GDP data awaited → This evening: ONS confirms 0% growth; economy stalled since June

The Office for National Statistics confirmed UK GDP showed zero growth in January 2026, missing the 0.2 per cent consensus forecast. The dominant services sector was flat; production fell 0.1 per cent. British GDP has not grown since June, stalling at the same level for six consecutive months. Sterling fell 0.6 per cent to $1.3266 as ING warned the outlook is “becoming more challenging” with elevated energy prices.

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The data is particularly concerning because it predates the Iran conflict, which has since pushed Brent crude above $100 and introduced a major new headwind. Economists at Capital Economics now model UK growth of just 0.6 per cent for 2026 if oil stays elevated — well below the OBR’s already-downgraded 1.1 per cent forecast. Bank of England rate cut expectations have been scaled back further: markets now price just a 25 per cent chance of a cut at next Thursday’s meeting. The combination of stalling growth and rising energy costs raises the spectre of stagflation.

Hereditary Peers Bill Clears Final Hurdle — 92 Lords to Leave After 700 Years

The House of Lords (Hereditary Peers) Bill passed its final parliamentary stage this week, completing a constitutional reform first attempted a quarter of a century ago. Up to 92 hereditary peers who held their seats by virtue of birth will leave the chamber at the end of this parliamentary session in May. Royal assent from King Charles III is expected imminently.

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The bill removes the exemption inserted by the Blair government in 1999 that allowed 92 hereditary peers to remain while broader Lords reform was completed. That broader reform never came, leaving the hereditary principle embedded in Parliament for another 27 years. The departing peers include dukes, earls and viscounts whose families have sat in the Lords since the medieval period. The Electoral Reform Society called it “an important victory for democracy”, though critics note the chamber remains entirely unelected even without the hereditary element.

Government Adopts First Anti-Muslim Hostility Definition

The Government published a non-statutory definition of anti-Muslim hostility on Monday — the first formal attempt to define such prejudice. Home Office statistics show anti-Muslim hate crimes at a record 4,478 in the year to March 2025, representing nearly half of all religious hate crimes. The definition covers people perceived to be Muslim, including Sikhs and Hindus targeted because of their appearance.

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The definition was developed by an independent working group appointed in 2025. It explicitly protects free speech: “ridiculing or insulting a religion, including Islam, or portraying it in a manner some adherents might find disrespectful” remains protected expression. The Muslim Council of Britain said the definition “falls short” by not using the term Islamophobia. Humanists UK welcomed the approach as preferable to earlier proposals that risked conflating criticism of Islam with bigotry against Muslims. The timing is politically sensitive given rising community tensions since the Iran conflict began.

BBC World Service Faces Funding Crisis as March Deadline Looms

The Public Accounts Committee said it was “deeply troubled” by the BBC World Service’s funding uncertainty, with the current FCDO arrangement expiring at the end of March. The Service’s budget fell 21 per cent in real terms between 2021 and 2026, while Russia and China spend a combined £6–8 billion annually on global media operations.

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The World Service reaches 365 million people weekly and remains the most trusted international broadcaster, but MPs warned it risks losing that position as hostile states expand their output. Russia’s RT and China’s CGTN have invested heavily in African and Asian language services — precisely the markets where the BBC has been forced to cut back. A last-minute funding deal may be announced next week, but the PAC criticised the Government for leaving the Service unable to plan or invest. The crisis is particularly acute during the Iran conflict, when accurate, independent reporting from the region is at a premium.

Overseas Dentists Exam Places Expanded Tenfold to Tackle Access Crisis

The Government announced a near-tenfold expansion of places on the Licence in Dental Surgery exam, unlocking thousands of fully qualified overseas-trained dentists currently unable to practise in the UK. Limited exam capacity has been the main bottleneck; many qualified dentists have waited years for a place. The move aims to address a dental access crisis that has left millions unable to find an NHS dentist.

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An estimated 12 million adults in England have been unable to secure an NHS dental appointment when they needed one. The shortage is most acute in rural and coastal areas, where practices have closed or stopped taking NHS patients entirely. The Royal College of Surgeons, which administers the exam, will expand testing capacity from roughly 400 places per year to nearly 4,000. The first additional cohort is expected to qualify by autumn 2026. Dental charities welcomed the announcement but warned that exam expansion alone will not solve the crisis without reforms to the NHS dental contract, which many practitioners consider financially unviable.

One To Read

The Gulf Monarchies Are Caught Between Iran’s Desperation and America’s Recklessness

Carnegie Endowment · A sharp analysis of how the GCC states are navigating the impossible position of hosting US forces while absorbing Iranian strikes — and why their diplomatic push matters more than the bombs.

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Morning Briefing

Friday 13 March 2026 — 08:01 GMT

What It Means For You

Brent crude holds above $100 for a second day; petrol nearing 165p/litre — filling a 55-litre tank now costs roughly £91, up £10 from a fortnight ago
Bank of England rate cut next week all but ruled out as oil shock clouds inflation outlook — tracker and variable-rate mortgage holders face sustained higher costs through spring
Inheritance tax relief changes take effect 6 April: agricultural and business property allowance rises to £2.5m — affected estates should review arrangements now

Geopolitical

Four US Crew Killed as KC-135 Tanker Crashes in Iraq

A US Air Force KC-135 Stratotanker crashed in western Iraq on Thursday while supporting Operation Epic Fury, killing four crew members. The Pentagon said the crash was not caused by hostile fire; a second KC-135 made an emergency landing at Ben Gurion Airport. It is the first loss of a US tanker aircraft in thirteen years.

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The loss brings the American death toll to eleven since the campaign began on 28 February, with eight further personnel seriously wounded. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed responsibility, contradicting official US accounts. The KC-135 fleet is the backbone of American aerial refuelling operations and any sustained attrition would constrain sortie rates. The crash underscores the operational strain of a campaign now spanning multiple theatres across the Middle East.

Iran Warns Oil Could Hit $200 as Three More Ships Struck

IRGC naval forces attacked three further commercial vessels in the Persian Gulf overnight, bringing the total to six ships hit in 48 hours. Iran’s oil ministry warned Brent crude could reach $200 per barrel if the conflict escalates. Brent settled at $100.84, its second consecutive close above $100.

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The widening of attacks to vessels in Iraqi territorial waters threatens Baghdad’s 3.3 million barrels per day of southern exports. Insurance premiums for Gulf-bound tankers have risen fifteenfold since the war began. Goldman Sachs raised its Q4 Brent forecast and warned spot prices could exceed the 2008 peak of $147 if Hormuz flows remain depressed. The International Maritime Organisation will convene an extraordinary session next week to address threats to Gulf shipping.

Pezeshkian Sets Three Conditions for Peace as Day 14 Begins

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian outlined three preconditions to end the war: recognition of Tehran’s legitimate rights, payment of reparations, and firm international guarantees against future aggression. His demands echo those of new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei, who vowed to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed.

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The alignment between the civilian president and the new supreme leader suggests a unified Iranian negotiating position, though Western intelligence agencies remain uncertain whether Mojtaba commands genuine authority over the IRGC. The maximalist demands — particularly reparations — are unlikely to find any traction in Washington. CENTCOM reports that approximately 6,000 targets have been struck inside Iran, with 90 per cent of air defences degraded, yet Tehran’s retaliatory capacity from underground missile stores remains significant.

UNHCR: 3.2 Million Iranians Displaced; Civilian Toll Passes 1,348

The United Nations refugee agency said up to 3.2 million Iranians have been forced from their homes since 28 February. Iran’s UN representative said at least 1,348 civilians have been killed as the conflict enters Day 14. Lebanese health officials report 687 dead from concurrent Israeli operations.

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The displacement figure places the humanitarian toll on a scale comparable to the early months of the Syrian civil war. Aid agencies warn that Iran’s infrastructure for sheltering internally displaced people is wholly inadequate, with many sleeping in vehicles or open fields. Seven US soldiers have died and eight are seriously wounded, mainly from retaliatory attacks on American bases in neighbouring countries. The crisis is compounded by Lebanon, where 750,000 people have also fled their homes.

Ukraine Hits Russian Electronics Plant Building Missile Parts

Ukraine used Storm Shadow missiles to strike a Russian factory producing microchips and high-end electronics for missile guidance systems. Separately, Presidents Trump and Zelenskyy confirmed agreement on 90–95 per cent of a Ukraine peace framework, though security guarantees remain unresolved.

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The strike on the electronics plant marks a shift from isolated attacks on oil infrastructure to systematic targeting of Russia’s military-industrial base. Classified Russian documents obtained by Ukrainian intelligence reveal total irreversible losses exceeding 1.3 million personnel since February 2022. The near-agreement on a peace framework represents the most concrete diplomatic advance since the Istanbul talks, though European leaders remain cautious about any settlement that rewards territorial conquest.

UK Domestic Politics

Reeves Faces Treasury Committee Grilling on Iran Oil Shock

Chancellor Rachel Reeves appears before the Treasury Committee today alongside the OBR and IFS to defend the Spring Forecast. The OBR cut 2026 growth to 1.1 per cent before the conflict; City economists now model 0.6–0.8 per cent if Brent stays above $100. Rising gilt yields threaten to eliminate the £9.9bn fiscal buffer.

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The Spring Forecast’s assumptions have been rendered obsolete within days by the Iran crisis. The Resolution Foundation estimates sustained energy prices could add £500 to the typical household bill and a full percentage point to inflation. Reeves faces a trilemma at the autumn budget: breach her fiscal rules, announce further spending cuts, or raise taxes — any of which would compound Labour’s difficulties ahead of the May local elections.

Courts and Tribunals Bill Provokes Cross-Party Fury on Jury Trials

MPs debated the Courts and Tribunals Bill for the first time this week, with the legislation to remove defendants’ right to elect jury trial for either-way offences drawing fierce opposition. Nearly 40 Labour backbenchers have written to Starmer refusing to support the measure. The Law Society and Bar Council condemned the reforms.

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The bill would allow judge-only trials for offences carrying up to three years’ imprisonment, affecting one in four fraud cases. The Government argues it is essential to reduce the Crown Court backlog of 73,000 cases. Critics counter that removing jury trials undermines a constitutional right dating to Magna Carta. The Labour rebellion represents the most serious internal challenge to Starmer’s legislative programme since the general election.

Crime and Policing Bill Enters Final Report Stage Debates

The Crime and Policing Bill continues its report stage in the House of Lords, with peers debating amendments on knife crime, anti-social behaviour and violence against women. The bill creates new offences for possessing knives with intent and increases maximum penalties for selling prohibited weapons.

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The legislation is one of the most significant criminal justice measures of this Parliament, touching on issues from shoplifting to child sexual exploitation. Peers have tabled amendments seeking to strengthen protections for retail workers. The bill is expected to proceed to third reading before Easter, though several contentious amendments on protest rights remain unresolved after the Government suffered five defeats on the separate NI Pensions Bill this week.

Inheritance Tax Relief Reforms Take Effect in Three Weeks

The Government confirmed changes to Agricultural Property Relief and Business Property Relief from 6 April. The allowance rises from £1m to £2.5m following December’s partial U-turn; assets above the threshold face a 20 per cent effective rate. Spouses may transfer unused allowances, reducing affected estates from 375 to 185.

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The reforms remain contentious despite the increased threshold. The National Farmers’ Union argues that land values in many regions mean family farms will still be caught by the charge. Around 85 per cent of estates claiming agricultural relief are forecast to pay no additional tax, but the remaining 15 per cent face bills that could force asset sales. The changes represent the most significant reform of agricultural inheritance tax since the relief was introduced in 1992.

Defence Spending Pressure Mounts as Iran Conflict Enters Third Week

Cross-party pressure on Starmer to accelerate defence spending has intensified as the Iran war enters Day 14. Military chiefs warn of a £28bn budget shortfall; NATO allies agreed a 5 per cent of GDP target by 2035 at the February summit. The Chancellor has resisted, citing £9.9bn of headroom now under severe strain.

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The current commitment of 2.5 per cent of GDP by 2027 falls well short of what defence chiefs say is needed. Finding billions more without further tax rises appears arithmetically challenging after the Spring Statement already trimmed departmental budgets. The debate exposes a fundamental tension in Labour’s fiscal strategy between its domestic spending commitments and the rapidly deteriorating international security environment, with the Iran crisis consuming significant military resources.

One To Read

Why the Iran War May Not Trigger a Ukraine-Style Inflation Shock

CNBC · A measured analysis of Europe’s energy resilience since 2022 and why this oil shock, though severe, may prove less devastating than the last.

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Morning Briefing

Thursday 12 March 2026 — 07:57 GMT

What It Means For You

Brent crude climbs 5% to $91.60 after Hormuz shipping attacks — expect pump prices to rise toward 160p/litre this week; filling a 55-litre tank now costs roughly £88
Gilt yields ease to 4.55% ahead of Bank of England decision on 19 March — rate cut odds fall to 30%; tracker mortgage holders unlikely to see relief this month
Employment Rights Act takes effect 6 April: statutory sick pay from day one, zero-hours contract protections — employers and staff should review terms now

Geopolitical

Iran Strikes Three Ships Near Hormuz as War Enters Day 13

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard attacked at least three commercial vessels near the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, hitting ships flying Japanese, Thai and Marshall Islands flags. The Thailand-flagged Mayuree Naree caught fire; twenty crew were rescued by the Royal Navy of Oman but three remain missing. IRGC naval commander Alireza Tangsiri declared all ships must obtain Iran’s approval to transit the strait.

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The attacks mark a significant escalation of Iran’s strategy to leverage the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20 per cent of global oil passes daily. The US military responded by destroying 16 mine-laying vessels near the waterway. Insurance premiums for Gulf-bound tankers have surged tenfold since the conflict began, with several major shipping lines now routing around the Cape of Good Hope. The economic toll of the maritime disruption may ultimately prove more consequential than the air campaign itself.

Trump and Putin Hold First Phone Call of 2026

President Trump and Vladimir Putin spoke for one hour on Monday in their first conversation since December. The White House initiated the call; Putin urged a “quick political and diplomatic settlement” of the Iran conflict. Trump told reporters Putin “wants to be helpful” and pressed him to end the war in Ukraine.

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The call underscores Moscow’s delicate balancing act: Russia has benefited from surging energy prices — its Urals blend climbed above $70 per barrel, well above the $59 budgeted — yet its ally Iran faces sustained bombardment. The leaders also discussed temporarily allowing India to purchase Russian oil to ease global supply pressures. European leaders warned that Russia is the only “winner” of the Iran conflict, as Western attention and resources are diverted from Ukraine.

Tehran Claims 10,000 Civilian Sites Bombed; 1,300 Dead

Iranian officials say US and Israeli forces have struck nearly 10,000 civilian sites and killed more than 1,300 civilians since hostilities began on 28 February. Explosions rocked Tehran, Tabriz, Karaj and Kish Island overnight. The Pentagon insists its targeting remains confined to military and IRGC infrastructure.

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Iran’s casualty figures cannot be independently verified, but satellite imagery corroborates widespread damage across multiple cities. Tehran’s broader count includes dual-use infrastructure such as power stations, bridges and communications hubs. Iran’s ballistic missile launches have fallen 90 per cent and drone launches 83 per cent from pre-war levels, suggesting the campaign is degrading military capability. Seven US soldiers have died and eight are seriously injured, mainly from retaliatory attacks on American bases in neighbouring countries.

IEA Releases 400 Million Barrels in Largest-Ever Reserve Draw

The International Energy Agency agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil — the largest draw from strategic reserves in history — to offset supply disruption from the Hormuz closure. The US separately authorised 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Brent crude rose 5% to $91.60 despite the intervention.

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The combined release dwarfs the previous record of 120 million barrels during the 2011 Libyan civil war. Analysts at KPMG warn of an economic “butterfly effect”: even in their base case, where the Strait reopens by late March, CPI inflation in the US could reach 3.3 per cent by year-end. A prolonged closure of three to six months could push core inflation to 4.1 per cent. Markets remain sceptical that reserves alone can compensate for the loss of Iranian and Gulf transit volumes.

Ukraine Deploys Drone Specialists to Gulf States

President Zelenskyy confirmed that Ukrainian units experienced in countering Iranian-style drones are now operating in Qatar, the UAE and Saudi Arabia. The deployment deepens Kyiv’s security ties with Gulf monarchies and positions Ukraine as a defence partner for nations threatened by Iranian missile and drone attacks.

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Ukraine’s battlefield expertise against Iranian Shahed drones — gained through two years of Russian bombardment — has become a valuable diplomatic asset. The deployments serve a dual purpose: they strengthen Ukraine’s case for continued Western support by demonstrating its strategic utility, whilst offering Gulf states proven counter-drone capabilities at a moment of acute vulnerability. The arrangement also opens potential arms sales channels for Ukrainian defence firms developing next-generation electronic warfare systems.

UK Domestic Politics

Finance Bill Completes Lords Stages as Tax Rises Take Shape

The Finance (No. 2) Bill is set to complete all remaining stages in the House of Lords today, implementing the Autumn Budget’s key measures. From 6 April, basic and higher dividend tax rates rise by 2 percentage points. Inheritance tax relief for farms and businesses is capped at £2.5 million at 100 per cent, with 50 per cent relief thereafter.

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The inheritance tax reforms remain deeply contentious despite the Government’s concession in raising the threshold from £1 million to £2.5 million. Farmers’ groups argue that many family farms exceed this cap when land values are included. The National Farmers’ Union warns that the policy will force farm sales and undermine food security. With the Bill now effectively law, attention shifts to implementation and the practical impact on estate planning from April.

Starmer Presses Treasury for Faster Defence Spending Uplift

Keir Starmer is pushing Rachel Reeves to accelerate defence spending beyond the current 2.6 per cent of GDP target for 2027, after military chiefs warned of a £28 billion hole in the defence budget. The Ministry of Defence believes swifter action is needed to restore hollowed-out forces. The Chancellor has reportedly resisted the pressure.

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The Iran conflict has intensified the political pressure on Starmer, with Labour peer Baroness Ashton urging the Government to “go further and faster” on defence. NATO allies have agreed a collective target of 5 per cent of GDP by 2035, making the UK’s current trajectory look increasingly modest. Reeves’s resistance reflects genuine fiscal constraints: the Spring Statement already cut welfare and trimmed departmental budgets to rebuild headroom. Finding billions more for defence without further tax rises appears arithmetically challenging.

Reeves’s Welfare Cuts Take Effect Next Month

The health-related element of Universal Credit for new claimants will be cut from £97 to £50 per week from April, with under-22s excluded entirely. The OBR estimates savings of £4.8 billion. Day-to-day public spending growth is trimmed to 1.2 per cent in real terms, and 10,000 civil service roles face the axe by 2030.

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The welfare cuts represent a sharp departure from Labour’s pre-election rhetoric and have drawn fierce criticism from disability charities and backbench MPs. The savings are essential to maintaining the Chancellor’s fiscal rules after the OBR halved its 2026 growth forecast from 1.4 per cent to 1.1 per cent. With unemployment projected to rise to 5.3 per cent, the timing of benefit reductions has been questioned even by sympathetic economists who acknowledge the fiscal arithmetic demands difficult choices.

Employment Rights Act Reforms Take Effect 6 April

Sweeping changes under the Employment Rights Act 2025 come into force next month: statutory sick pay from day one, zero-hours contract protections, day-one rights to unpaid parental and paternity leave, and new whistleblowing provisions covering sexual harassment. The Fair Work Agency becomes operational on 7 April.

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The reforms represent the most significant expansion of workers’ rights in a generation and fulfil a central Labour manifesto commitment. Business groups have warned of increased costs at a time when employer National Insurance contributions are also rising. The removal of the three-day waiting period for statutory sick pay is expected to benefit 1.3 million low-paid workers. Employers in hospitality and retail, which rely heavily on flexible contracts, face the greatest operational adjustments.

OBR Halves Growth Forecast; Unemployment Set to Rise

The Office for Budget Responsibility has cut its 2026 GDP growth forecast from 1.4 per cent to 1.1 per cent, citing global uncertainty and the Iran conflict’s impact on energy prices. CPI inflation is projected at 3.0 per cent in January, with the 2 per cent target not expected until late 2026. Unemployment is forecast to rise to 5.3 per cent.

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The downgrade reflects a confluence of headwinds: elevated energy costs, the lagged effects of employer NICs rises, and weakening consumer confidence. Mortgage approvals fell 10 per cent year-on-year in January to 59,999, suggesting the housing market is cooling. The Bank of England faces an acute dilemma at its 19 March meeting: inflation pressures argue against cutting rates, but deteriorating growth data point to the need for monetary stimulus. Markets now price only a 30 per cent chance of a cut.

One To Read

Iran War Could Trigger an Economic ‘Butterfly Effect’ and Keep Inflation Elevated for Years

Fortune · KPMG’s chief economist explains how the conflict’s energy shock could cascade through supply chains, wages and central bank policy for years to come.

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Evening Briefing

Thursday 12 March 2026 — 18:55 GMT

What It Means For You

Brent crude holds above $100; petrol prices on track for 165p/litre this week — filling a 55-litre tank now costs roughly £91, up £8 from a fortnight ago
S&P 500 falls 1.2% to lowest since November — pension funds and ISA holders with US equity exposure face further short-term losses
NI Pensions Bill clears Lords with £5,000 salary sacrifice threshold — check whether your workplace pension arrangements are affected from April 2029

Geopolitical

Mojtaba Khamenei Demands US Bases Close in First Address

↻ This morning: new leader silent → This evening: first statement demands base closures

Iran’s new supreme leader issued his first public statement, declaring the Strait of Hormuz must remain closed as a “tool of pressure” and demanding all US military bases in the Middle East shut immediately. Mojtaba Khamenei warned Iran would “seize or destroy” enemy assets if war reparations are refused.

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Appointed on 9 March after his father Ali Khamenei was killed in US-Israeli strikes, Mojtaba faces an immediate legitimacy crisis. His maximalist demands — base closures, reparations and sovereignty guarantees — echo President Pezeshkian’s three preconditions for peace but go further in threatening asset seizures. Western intelligence agencies remain uncertain whether Mojtaba commands genuine authority over the IRGC or is merely amplifying its position. The tone suggests no near-term path to de-escalation.

Three More Ships Hit in Gulf; Iran Warns of $200 Oil

↻ This morning: three ships attacked → This evening: three more struck; Iran warns of $200 oil

IRGC naval forces struck three further commercial vessels in the Persian Gulf on Thursday, bringing the total to at least six ships hit in 48 hours. Iraqi port operations remain suspended. Iran’s oil ministry warned Brent crude could reach $200 per barrel if the conflict escalates, as the price settled above $100.

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The widening of attacks to Iraqi territorial waters marks a dangerous escalation; Iraq exports roughly 3.3 million barrels per day through its southern Basra terminal. Goldman Sachs raised its Q4 Brent forecast and warned spot prices could exceed the 2008 peak of $147 if Hormuz flows remain depressed. Insurance premiums for Gulf-bound tankers have risen fifteenfold since the war began, with several major shipping lines now routing around the Cape of Good Hope at enormous additional cost.

UNHCR: 3.2 Million Displaced Inside Iran as Crisis Deepens

The United Nations refugee agency reported that up to 3.2 million Iranians have been temporarily displaced since hostilities began on 28 February. Families are fleeing Tehran, Tabriz and other cities for northern and rural areas. The figure is expected to rise as fighting persists across multiple provinces.

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The displacement figure — representing roughly 600,000 to one million households — places the humanitarian toll of this conflict on a scale comparable to the early months of the Syrian civil war. Aid agencies warn that Iran’s infrastructure for sheltering internally displaced people is inadequate, with many sleeping in vehicles or open fields. The crisis is compounded by Lebanon, where 750,000 people have fled their homes since the concurrent Israeli operations against Hezbollah.

Trump and Zelenskyy Agree on 95% of Ukraine Peace Framework

Presidents Trump and Zelenskyy confirmed they have reached agreement on 90 to 95 per cent of a peace proposal framework for Ukraine. The remaining sticking points reportedly concern security guarantees and the status of occupied territories. Russia’s total personnel losses since February 2022 now exceed 1.27 million.

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The near-agreement comes as Ukraine shifts from isolated strikes on Russian oil infrastructure to systematic attacks on military-industrial targets producing missiles and aviation components. An oil depot in Russia’s Krasnodar region was set ablaze by Ukrainian drones on Thursday. The diplomatic progress on a peace framework, however incomplete, represents the most concrete advance since the 2022 Istanbul talks, though European leaders remain cautious about any deal that rewards territorial conquest.

IEA’s Historic Reserve Release Fails to Calm Markets

The largest strategic petroleum reserve release in history — 400 million barrels across IEA member states, including 172 million from the US — has failed to prevent Brent crude from breaching $100. The S&P 500 fell 1.2% to its lowest close since November as energy costs weigh on equities worldwide.

Dive deeper

The combined release dwarfs the 120-million-barrel draw during the 2011 Libyan civil war, yet markets remain sceptical that reserves alone can compensate for the loss of 20 per cent of global oil transit through Hormuz. KPMG’s chief economist warned of an economic “butterfly effect”: even in the base case of a late-March reopening, US CPI inflation could reach 3.3 per cent by year-end. A prolonged closure of three to six months could push core inflation to 4.1 per cent globally.

UK Domestic Politics

Mandelson Files Show Starmer Overruled Epstein Warnings

The 147 pages released by the Government reveal officials explicitly warned Keir Starmer of a “reputational risk” before he appointed Peter Mandelson as US ambassador in December 2024. Documents show Mandelson’s relationship with Epstein continued from 2009 to 2011; he reportedly stayed at Epstein’s home while the latter was in prison.

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The files are the first batch in a wider disclosure demanded by Parliament’s Intelligence and Security Committee. They confirm Starmer proceeded with the appointment despite explicit warnings, only sacking Mandelson nine months later when the full depth of the Epstein relationship emerged. Mandelson, arrested in February on suspicion of misconduct in public office, sought £547,000 in severance but received £75,000. The affair continues to erode Starmer’s judgement credentials at a time when Labour trails in polls.

Home Secretary Imposes Month-Long March Ban in London

Shabana Mahmood approved the Metropolitan Police’s request to ban the Al-Quds Day march from 11 March to 11 April — the first protest march prohibition since 2012. The Met cited the Iran war’s heightened tensions and recent counter-terrorism arrests of four men suspected of spying on the Jewish community.

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The Islamic Human Rights Commission, which organises the annual demonstration, has vowed to mount a legal challenge. A stationary protest remains permitted but will be strictly policed. The ban reflects the Government’s difficult balancing act between freedom of assembly and public safety; community tensions have risen sharply since the Iran conflict began, with antisemitic and Islamophobic incidents both increasing according to monitoring groups.

NI Pensions Bill Clears Lords with £5,000 Threshold

The National Insurance Contributions (Employer Pensions Contributions) Bill completed its third reading in the Lords today. A cross-party amendment raised the salary sacrifice threshold from the Government’s proposed £2,000 to £5,000, above which employers must pay NICs on pension contributions. Changes take effect from April 2029.

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The Lords inflicted five defeats on the Government during report stage, including exempting contributions above the cap from student loan repayment calculations and carving out small businesses and charities from the provision entirely. The bill now returns to the Commons, where ministers must decide whether to accept or reverse the amendments. The higher threshold reduces expected Treasury revenue but protects more workers’ pension arrangements from the new charge.

Crime and Policing Bill Nears End of Lords Report Stage

The Crime and Policing Bill reached its fifth day of report stage in the House of Lords, with peers debating amendments on knife crime, anti-social behaviour and violence against women. The bill creates new offences for possessing knives with intent and increases maximum penalties for selling prohibited weapons.

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The bill represents one of the most significant pieces of criminal justice legislation in this Parliament, touching on issues from shoplifting to child sexual exploitation and youth radicalisation. Peers have tabled amendments seeking to strengthen protections for retail workers and expand the scope of anti-social behaviour orders. With one further day of report stage remaining, the bill is expected to proceed to third reading before Easter, though several contentious amendments on protest rights remain unresolved.

Starmer Under Pressure to Accelerate Defence Spending

Military chiefs have warned of a £28 billion hole in the defence budget as the Prime Minister presses the Treasury to move faster toward 3 per cent of GDP on defence. NATO allies agreed a collective target of 5 per cent by 2035 at the February summit. The Chancellor has reportedly resisted the pressure, citing narrow fiscal headroom.

Dive deeper

The Iran conflict has intensified political pressure on Starmer, with cross-party voices urging the Government to go further and faster than the current 2.6 per cent commitment for 2027. Finding billions more for defence without further tax rises appears arithmetically challenging after the Spring Statement already cut welfare and trimmed departmental budgets. The debate exposes a fundamental tension in Labour’s fiscal strategy between its domestic spending commitments and the rapidly deteriorating international security environment.

One To Read

How Will the Iran Conflict Impact Oil Prices?

Goldman Sachs · Detailed scenario analysis of the conflict’s impact on crude, LNG and global inflation — essential reading as Brent breaches $100.

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Keyboard Shortcuts

Morning Briefing

What It Means For You

Geopolitical

B-52s and F-35s Strike Isfahan and Shiraz in Heaviest Overnight Raids

Trump Demands Multinational Fleet to Force Open Strait of Hormuz

North Korea Fires Ten Ballistic Missiles During US-South Korea Drills

Formula 1 Cancels Bahrain and Saudi Grands Prix Over Gulf Security

EU Opens Backdoor Diplomacy With Tehran as War Enters Day 16

UK Domestic Politics

Al Quds Day Protests Proceed in London Despite March Ban

Energy Price Cap to Surge 10% to £1,801 in July

Petrol Prices Rise Fastest Since 2022 as Heating Oil Doubles

Labour Polls at 20% With 37 Councils Projected to Change Hands

Electoral Commission to Draft Campaign Code Ahead of May Elections

The Economic Costs of the Iran War: Oil Prices, Munitions, and More

Evening Briefing

What It Means For You

Geopolitical

Israel Denies Interceptor Shortage as Iran Missile Barrages Intensify

Trump Says Iran ‘Wants a Deal’ but Terms Not Good Enough

Ukraine Strikes Russian Oil Refinery as EU Renews Sanctions

North Korea Tests Ten Ballistic Missiles During US-South Korea Drills

Iran Vows to Kill Netanyahu as Gulf War Toll Passes 2,250

UK Domestic Politics

Hundreds Defy Al Quds March Ban in London; Arrests Made

Mandelson Files Reveal ‘Reputational Risk’ Warnings to Starmer

Farm Inheritance Tax Relief Raised to £2.5 Million After Protests

Defence Spending Pledge Reaches 2.6% of GDP by 2027

Immigration Overhaul Delayed to Autumn as ILR Period Doubles

How Will the Iran War Affect the Global Economy?

Weekly Roundup

The Week In Numbers

↑ What Moved Forward

Ukraine–US Peace Framework Nears Completion

Hereditary Peers Bill Clears Final Hurdle

GCC States Unite at UN Security Council

Employment Rights Act Reforms Confirmed for April

• What Stalled

Bank of England Rate Cuts Effectively Shelved

Russia Blocks Ukraine Ceasefire Despite Framework

Labour Immigration Reforms Delayed by Rebellion

→ What To Watch Next Week

Bank of England Rate Decision — Thursday 19 March

Trump’s Coalition Flotilla — Who Signs Up?

Al Quds Day Protests — Sunday 15 March

Petrol Prices Set to Breach 150p

The Global Price Tag of War in the Middle East

Evening Briefing

What It Means For You

Geopolitical

Trump Demands Multinational Warship Fleet to Reopen Hormuz

Iran Strikes UAE as IRGC Declares US Interests ‘Legitimate Targets’

Brent Crude Breaks $103 as Hormuz Blockade Enters Third Week

Ukraine Strikes Russian Electronics Plant Making Missile Components

Iran Death Toll Reaches 1,444 on Day 15 of US-Israel Campaign

UK Domestic Politics

Starmer Faces Pressure to Join Hormuz Warship Coalition

Immigration Rebels Force Government to Review Settlement Timetable

Al Quds March Ban Faces Legal Challenge Ahead of Tomorrow’s Protest

Reform UK Set to Win Most Council Seats Nationally in May Elections

Bank of England Rate Decision Looms as Oil Shock Stalls Easing Cycle

How Much Is the War in Iran Costing You?

Morning Briefing

What It Means For You

Geopolitical

US Bombs Kharg Island Military Targets; Warns Oil Facilities Next

Iran Fires Missiles at Tel Aviv; Smoke Rises Over Israel’s Commercial Hub

IEA Releases Record 400m Barrels as Oil Crisis Enters Third Week

Hegseth Claims Iran’s Supreme Leader ‘Wounded and Disfigured’

Ukraine Recovers 244 sq km as Russian Territorial Gains Hit 20-Month Low

UK Domestic Politics

Bank of England Rate Hold Expected as Oil Shock Clouds Outlook

More Than 100 Labour MPs Revolt Over Immigration Reforms

Labour Braces for Local Election Losses as Reform Surges

Defence Spending to Rise to 2.5% of GDP by 2027 as OBR Backs Increase

NHS Waiting List Falls for Third Month to 7.25 Million

The Energy Crisis Could Outlast the Iran War