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BREAKING Trump threatens 'massive attack' on Iran — 'bigger than ever before' — as Tehran rejects US ceasefire over the Strait of Hormuz and Brent crude tops $100 a barrel Read more

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The Daily Brief

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✎ Curated Briefing · Edited at 08:00 & 18:00
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Evening Briefing

Friday 24 July 2026 — 16:29 BST

What It Means For You

  • Petrol & Prices: Oil fell back below $100 a barrel on Friday, easing the immediate inflation scare, though pump prices remain elevated after this week’s spike. The Bank of England sets interest rates on 30 July.
  • Your Money: Reassuring UK data — a jump in retail sales and stronger business activity — lifted the FTSE and steadied borrowing costs, with markets still expecting the Bank to hold rates next week.
  • Pubs & the High Street: Business rates for pubs, clubs and music venues will be cut by 20 per cent, worth around £100m, funded by a planned levy on large online retailers — part of the government’s cost-of-living push.

GEO Geopolitical

Spain Declares Emergency as Wildfires Force Tens of Thousands to Flee

Spain declared a national emergency on Friday as wildfires raged across the country, while on the French Atlantic coast fresh mass evacuations drove holidaymakers from their homes — some fleeing by boat. Together the fires in Spain and south-western France have forced tens of thousands to flee, with both governments requesting help from fellow European Union states. Temperatures reached 44C in southern Spain.

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Around 10,000 people were evacuated in the Madrid region, where the government handed the response to its military emergency unit, while near Cap Ferret on France’s Atlantic coast a blaze burning since Wednesday has scorched more than 12,000 hectares and driven out tens of thousands. This summer has burned the second-largest area on record across the European Union. Two firefighters were killed near Bordeaux earlier in the week. For the many Britons holidaying along the French and Spanish coasts, the fires and extreme heat are a direct hazard. Watch the EU response and whether the heat eases this weekend.

Iran Strikes US Gulf Bases as Trump Weighs a Bigger Attack

Iran launched retaliatory strikes on Friday against American military targets in the Gulf, including the Al-Azraq air base in Jordan, as Bahrain and Kuwait reported intercepting Iranian missiles. President Trump said he was “close to making a decision” on “a massive attack… bigger than ever before”, but had not ordered one. It followed a thirteenth night of American strikes and Iran’s rejection of a US ceasefire proposal.

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Iran spurned a truce relayed by Iraq’s prime minister, insisting it would accept no deal that left control of the Strait of Hormuz unresolved; the foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, dismissed Washington’s “mindless aggression”. In Washington, the House of Representatives voted 214 to 208 — for a second time — to direct Mr Trump to end the war or seek congressional authorisation, a rare bipartisan rebuke. Oil, which had topped $100 on Thursday, eased back. With neither side backing down, the danger of a far larger conflict is mounting. Watch whether the President makes good on his threat.

Oil Retreats Below $100 as the War-Risk Premium Unwinds

Brent crude fell back below $100 a barrel on Friday, sliding around 4 per cent to roughly $96, as traders unwound part of the war-risk premium that had driven it above $100 on Thursday for the first time in two months. The pullback offered a measure of relief, though oil remained on course for a weekly gain of about 10 per cent as the US–Iran war ground on.

Dive deeper
The retreat reflected profit-taking and the absence of any fresh escalation on the ground, rather than a genuine de-escalation: American strikes continued, Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping persisted, and no ceasefire was in prospect. Analysts cautioned that any move against Gulf energy infrastructure, or a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, could send prices sharply higher again. For British motorists, the brief dip is unlikely to reverse the recent climb at the pumps. Watch the oil price into next week and any sign the fighting spreads to the region’s oilfields.

Russian Strike on a Kyiv Event Kills 10 as Both Sides Trade Blows

A Russian missile strike on a defence-industry gathering in the Kyiv region killed at least ten people and wounded more than a hundred on Friday, Ukrainian officials said, in one of the deadliest attacks of recent weeks. Ukraine struck back deep inside Russia, hitting an arms factory in Kirov, some 1,200km from the border, killing six. It was a bloody day on a front that has barely moved.

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Ukraine’s prosecutor general opened an inquiry into who had authorised the gathering that was hit. Kyiv said its long-range strike used domestically produced cruise missiles, part of a sustained campaign against Russia’s war economy that has also targeted refineries and logistics hubs. Moscow claimed to have downed hundreds of Ukrainian drones overnight, an assertion that could not be verified. The bloodshed came a day after the American and Russian foreign ministers met in Manila without result. Watch whether the deep strikes push either side towards, or further from, talks.

Six Killed in West Bank Gunfight as Israel Raids Nablus

Six people were killed in a gun battle in the occupied West Bank on Friday, among them four Palestinians and two Israeli soldiers, after which Israel launched a wide operation around Nablus. The clash, near the village of Tell, was followed by reprisal raids by Israeli settlers that wounded seven Palestinians, according to local sources. It marks one of the deadliest days in the territory in weeks.

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The Israeli military named one of the dead soldiers as Major Yuval Ezra, 27, and said it had detained suspects at a hospital in Nablus, where its chief of staff held an operational assessment. Violence in the West Bank has surged alongside the wider regional war, with settler attacks and Israeli raids intensifying through the summer. Palestinian officials condemned the settler reprisals as collective punishment. The bloodshed opens a further front in a region already convulsed by the fighting with Iran and the strains on the Gaza ceasefire. Watch for further raids and international reaction.

UK UK Domestic Politics

Burnham Launches ‘Number 10 North’ in Manchester

Andy Burnham marked the end of his first week as Prime Minister by launching “Number 10 North”, relocating devolution and local-growth policy functions to Manchester. Working from an interim headquarters in the city, Mr Burnham called it “the nerve centre of a rewired Britain” and “not a gimmick”, insisting the shift would bring government closer to the regions. He described it as “the best day of my life”.

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The interim base, at Heron House in the New Islington district, is to be replaced by a permanent “Digital Campus” by 2032, with the Prime Minister working there roughly one day a week and Caroline Simpson appointed a deputy chief of staff. The move is the clearest signal yet of Mr Burnham’s pitch to govern from beyond Westminster, a defining theme of his leadership. Critics questioned the substance behind the symbolism, and the Telegraph reported that he had taken a government jet to Manchester. Watch whether the relocation shifts real power northward or proves largely presentational.

Burnham Cuts Business Rates for Pubs and Music Venues

The government has announced a 20 per cent cut in business rates for pubs, clubs and grassroots music venues across England, a package worth around £100m, in its latest high-street and cost-of-living measure. Ministers indicated the relief would be funded by a new levy on large online retailers, framing it as shifting the burden from struggling hospitality to “big ecommerce”. The trade gave the move a cautious welcome.

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Hospitality leaders have long complained that pubs and venues pay disproportionately high rates relative to online competitors, and the sector has shed thousands of premises in recent years. Industry bodies welcomed the cut but pressed for detail on the funding and questioned why some businesses were excluded. It is the newest in a run of interventions — after a cut in VAT on domestic electricity and a £2 bus-fare cap — that have defined Mr Burnham’s opening days, though economists continue to ask how the giveaways will be paid for. Watch for the funding detail and the sector’s response.

FTSE Rebounds and Gilts Steady as the Oil Panic Fades

London’s FTSE 100 recovered on Friday, rising around 0.7 per cent to about 10,710, as oil’s retreat from $100 eased the previous day’s inflation scare. Banks led the gains, with HSBC among the risers, while government bond yields dipped and the pound firmed towards $1.334. The rebound clawed back much of Thursday’s sharp, oil-driven sell-off.

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The ten-year gilt yield eased to around 5.04 per cent, a few basis points lower, after touching a two-month high, and the volatility gauge fell as calmer nerves returned to markets. The improvement was helped by a run of firmer UK data, including a jump in June retail sales and a survey pointing to stronger business activity. Investors still expect the Bank of England to hold interest rates next Thursday, though the oil shock has muddied the outlook. For borrowers, the steadier bond market is welcome, if fragile. Watch whether the calm survives fresh developments in the Gulf.

Business Activity Hits a Three-Month High, Survey Shows

British private-sector activity grew at its fastest pace in three months in July, a closely watched business survey indicated on Friday, a further sign that the economy is holding up. The S&P Global flash survey pointed to the first expansion in three months, with firms reporting easing cost pressures, helped by summer spending and the warm weather. The pound firmed on the improved picture.

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The data, following Friday morning’s stronger-than-expected retail-sales figures, suggests the economy carried some momentum into the summer despite the oil-price shock and elevated borrowing costs. Easing cost pressures, if sustained, would be welcome news for the Bank of England as it weighs the inflationary threat from crude near $100. But economists warned that the war-driven energy spike could yet feed through to prices and dent confidence in the autumn. It hands Mr Burnham a second piece of reassuring economic news in a single day. Watch the hard output figures to confirm the survey’s optimism.

Ministers Pressed to Award £2.4bn Satellite Deal to Airbus

The government is under pressure to award a £2.4bn military satellite contract to Airbus rather than an American rival, in a decision that pits industrial sovereignty against the transatlantic relationship, according to reporting on Friday. Supporters of the European bid argue that Britain’s secure communications should not depend on a foreign supplier, particularly amid strains with Washington over defence and energy.

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The contract, for a constellation of secure military communications satellites, has become an early test of how Mr Burnham’s government balances close ties with the United States against the case for backing European and domestic industry. Awarding the work to Airbus, which employs a substantial British workforce, would chime with the government’s emphasis on home-grown jobs and strategic autonomy; choosing the American bidder could deepen ties with the Trump administration at a delicate moment. Ministers have yet to decide. Watch for the procurement decision and any lobbying from Washington.
One To Read

Europe’s Summer of Fire

Al Jazeera · As Spain declares a national emergency and tens of thousands flee blazes in Spain and France, this piece sets out how a third heatwave has driven one of the European Union’s worst wildfire seasons on record, and why the danger is far from over.
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Morning Briefing

Friday 24 July 2026 — 08:00 BST

What It Means For You

  • Petrol & Inflation: Oil is holding near $100 a barrel as the US–Iran war grinds on, keeping petrol close to 156p a litre and threatening to push inflation back above 3 per cent. The Bank of England sets interest rates on 30 July.
  • Your Money: Retail sales rose 1 per cent in June as warm weather boosted spending — a rare bright spot — but UK borrowing costs hit a two-month high, with markets now betting on rate rises rather than cuts, which would lift mortgage costs.
  • NHS & Heat: Resident doctors begin a five-day strike on Saturday, risking cancelled operations and appointments, while an amber heat alert covers much of England this weekend — check on elderly or vulnerable neighbours.

GEO Geopolitical

US Strikes Iran for a 13th Night as Trump Vows More Pain

American forces bombed Iran for a thirteenth consecutive night, US Central Command said, striking command centres, drone sites and coastal targets around Bandar Abbas and Khuzestan. Iranian authorities said at least four people were killed and five injured in an overnight strike near Ahvaz. President Trump signalled no let-up, telling Axios that Tehran “haven’t received enough pain yet” and that he was weighing “a massive attack… bigger than ever before”.

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Central Command said the campaign was designed to keep degrading the Revolutionary Guard’s ability to threaten commercial shipping. Iran’s army, meanwhile, claimed it had launched drone strikes on American bases in Bahrain and Jordan in retaliation — assertions Washington has not confirmed and which echo unverified claims made earlier in the week. Mr Trump repeated that the United States would inflict “major military punishment” on Iran for any further Houthi attacks on Gulf shipping. With no ceasefire in sight and Brent oil hovering near $100, the risk of a still-wider war is climbing. Watch whether the President orders the escalation he keeps threatening.

Oil Holds Near $100 as the Gulf War Grinds On

Brent crude held close to $100 a barrel on Friday, easing only slightly after surging past that level on Thursday for the first time since May, and remains up around 13 per cent on the week. The retreat was modest: prices stay elevated as Houthi attacks on Red Sea tankers and nightly American strikes on Iran keep a hefty risk premium on oil. US pump prices have climbed above $4 a gallon.

Dive deeper
The twin threats to the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea — through which a large share of the world’s crude and refined fuel passes — have driven the sharpest energy shock since the war began in February. Refined products such as diesel and petrol face the tightest squeeze, and war-risk insurance has multiplied. Analysts warn that a sustained loss of Gulf supply could push Brent well beyond its 2022 peak. For British households, the danger is that the recent relief from falling inflation proves short-lived. Watch the oil price into next week and any move by producers or the West to steady it.

Wildfires and Record Heat Grip Spain and France

Wildfires continued to rage across Spain and France on Friday as a punishing heatwave pushed temperatures towards 44C, with thousands evacuated. A blaze in Spain’s Guadalajara region, one of the country’s largest on record, has consumed some 32,000 hectares north of Madrid, emptying dozens of hamlets, while fires in south-western France have forced holidaymakers from coastal campsites and killed two firefighters this week.

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Spain’s weather agency warned that the already high fire risk would climb further as dry thunderstorms and Saharan dust fed the flames, urging “extreme caution”. This summer has scorched the second-largest area on record across the European Union. Spain’s prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, has cast the crisis as proof that “climate change kills and destroys wealth in our communities”. For the many Britons holidaying in France and Spain this summer, the fires and extreme heat are a direct hazard. Watch the heat peak and any further evacuations this weekend.

Kremlin Lays Ground for Mobilisation, War Institute Says

Russia is preparing the ground for a fresh wave of mobilisation and bracing for possible domestic unrest, the Institute for the Study of War has assessed, even as President Putin plays down a worsening fuel-shortage crisis. The Washington think tank said the Kremlin was setting the political conditions to call up more troops, a sign Moscow expects a long war despite renewed diplomatic contacts. Ukraine, meanwhile, has continued a shake-up of its military command.

Dive deeper
The institute reported that Russia launched far fewer drones in July than in June — roughly 2,955 against 5,749 — as Ukrainian strikes on refineries and depots bit into its war economy. Kyiv’s reshuffle, after this week’s dismissal of its commander-in-chief, has extended to the general staff. The assessment came a day after the American and Russian foreign ministers met in Manila without a breakthrough. With both capitals dug in, the war shows no sign of a negotiated end. Watch whether Moscow formalises a new mobilisation drive over the summer.

Israel Strikes Gaza After Fresh Displacement Orders

Israel bombarded parts of Gaza on Friday after issuing new displacement orders, killing at least two Palestinians, according to medical sources cited by Al Jazeera, in the latest strain on a US-brokered ceasefire in place since October. Strikes hit homes in the Bureij and Jabalia refugee camps and the Zeitoun and Tal al-Hawa districts of Gaza City. The truce has held only loosely, with near-daily Israeli operations.

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More than 1,180 Palestinians have been killed since the ceasefire took effect last October, the Gaza health ministry says, taking the overall toll of the war above 73,000. An Al Jazeera correspondent said it was “particularly alarming” that Israeli warnings to flee had been “followed by attacks on the very areas where people have been told to flee”. Israel says it targets militants and accuses Hamas of embedding among civilians. The pattern underscores how fragile the truce remains nearly a year on. Watch whether mediators move to shore up the ceasefire.

UK UK Domestic Politics

Retail Sales Jump in June as the Warm Weather Lifts Spending

British retail sales rose by 1 per cent in June, official figures showed on Friday, comfortably beating forecasts as the second-warmest June on record drew shoppers out and summer promotions lifted demand. The Office for National Statistics said sales volumes were 4.2 per cent higher than a year earlier, led by clothing and online retailers. It is a rare piece of good economic news for Andy Burnham’s government amid the oil-price squeeze.

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The ONS said clothing stores enjoyed their strongest month since September, while non-store retailers were lifted by sales of fans and outdoor goods during the heat. Sales volumes across the second quarter were up 0.6 per cent on the first, pointing to steady if unspectacular growth. The figures hand the Prime Minister a modest boost as he presses his cost-of-living agenda, though economists caution that the rebound owes much to weather that also fanned drought and wildfire warnings. Watch whether the momentum survives an autumn of rising fuel costs.

Gilt Yields Hit a Two-Month High as Markets Bet on Rate Rises

British borrowing costs pushed higher again on Friday, with the ten-year gilt yield reaching around 5.1 per cent, a two-month high, as the oil-driven inflation scare prompted traders to bet on interest-rate rises rather than cuts. The reversal, days before the Bank of England’s decision on 30 July, threatens to raise the cost of Mr Burnham’s spending plans and to feed through to mortgages. Sterling slipped towards $1.33.

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Money markets, which had been pricing gradual rate cuts, now lean towards the Bank raising Bank Rate over the coming months, though it is widely expected to hold at 3.75 per cent next week. The shift reflects fears that Brent crude near $100 will push inflation, already forecast to climb back towards 3 per cent, higher still. British debt remains the dearest to service in the G7, and the scars of the 2022 mini-Budget keep a premium on gilts. Watch the Bank’s guidance next Thursday for how seriously it takes the oil shock.

Resident Doctors Poised to Strike as Last-Ditch Talks Continue

Tens of thousands of resident doctors in England are due to begin a five-day strike at 7am on Saturday, even as the British Medical Association and the Health Secretary, Wes Streeting, report “constructive” but unresolved talks. The government has offered a 5.4 per cent rise for this year; the union says pay has fallen roughly a fifth in real terms since 2008. Hospital leaders warn of widespread cancellations.

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Picket lines are expected outside major hospitals in London and seven other English regions from Saturday morning through to Thursday. Mr Streeting said negotiations had been “constructive”, with “further conversations in the coming days”, and the BMA’s resident-doctors committee said nothing was “off the table”, leaving a slim chance of an eleventh-hour deal. The government points to pay rises averaging nearly 29 per cent over two years, the highest in the public sector. A walkout would test the NHS just as waiting lists had begun to fall. Watch whether weekend talks avert or merely pause the action.

Amber Heat Alert Covers Much of England This Weekend

An amber heat-health alert came into force across much of southern and central England on Friday morning and will run until Sunday, as a fresh heatwave builds. Issued by the UK Health Security Agency with the Met Office, the alert covers six regions and warns of a likely rise in deaths among the elderly and vulnerable. It is the same warm spell credited with lifting June’s retail sales.

Dive deeper
The alert spans the East Midlands, the East of England, London, the South East, the South West and the West Midlands from 9am on Friday until 9am on Sunday. Health officials urged people to stay hydrated, keep homes cool and check on elderly neighbours, warning that heat can be dangerous even for the healthy. The hot, dry conditions have deepened drought concerns, with hosepipe bans now covering more than 23 million people. Watch whether the alert is upgraded and how the heat strains hospitals already braced for strike action.

Labour Narrows Reform’s Lead as Burnham Settles In

Labour has closed much of the gap on Reform UK since Andy Burnham became Prime Minister, polling suggests, though Reform still holds a narrow lead. A YouGov survey put Reform on 23 per cent, the Conservatives on 21 and Labour on 20 — the closest the parties have been in a year. Mr Burnham is also the public’s preferred prime minister, according to Ipsos, ahead of Nigel Farage and Kemi Badenoch.

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Other pollsters tell a similar story: Opinium put Labour on 22 per cent, its highest since April and close behind Reform, while Survation had the two parties roughly tied. YouGov found Mr Burnham on 38 per cent favourability against Mr Farage’s 22, the Reform leader’s lowest in years. The figures suggest a modest “Burnham bounce”, though most fieldwork predates his first turbulent week in office. With no general election due for years, the immediate test is whether the honeymoon survives the oil shock and the strikes. Watch the first polls taken wholly under his premiership.
One To Read

Why a Distant Strait Sets the Price of Your Petrol

Al Jazeera · With oil back above $100, this explainer traces how the fighting around the Strait of Hormuz — and now the Red Sea — has choked the tanker traffic that carries much of the world’s crude, and why the disruption reaches all the way to British forecourts.
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Evening Briefing

Thursday 23 July 2026 — 22:31 BST

What It Means For You

  • Petrol & Bills: Oil has broken $100 a barrel for the first time since May, driving petrol up around 5p to 155.6p a litre and diesel up 8p, according to the RAC. Pump and energy costs look set to rise further, threatening the recent fall in inflation.
  • Savings & Mortgages: UK borrowing costs hit a two-month high, with thirty-year gilt yields near 5.75 per cent, even as the Chancellor pledged fiscal discipline. Higher yields feed through to mortgage and loan rates. The Bank of England decides on rates on 30 July.
  • NHS & Appointments: Resident doctors will strike for five days from 25 July, risking cancellations of operations and appointments even as waiting lists fall to a two-year low. Check before travelling for planned hospital care.

GEO Geopolitical

Trump Threatens a ‘Massive’ Strike on Iran as Oil Tops $100

President Trump has threatened “major military punishment” against Iran and told Axios he is weighing “a massive attack… bigger than ever before”, after Yemen’s Houthis struck a second Saudi oil tanker in the Red Sea. Brent crude vaulted above $100 a barrel for the first time since May, settling around $100.70 — up some 7 per cent on the day and roughly 30 per cent across July. The Saudi tanker Layla was hit hours after the Encelia.

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Writing on Truth Social, Mr Trump said Washington would “hold Iran responsible” for Houthi attacks on shipping, branding the group a “surrogate and proxy” of Tehran; he told Axios that Israel “would join in two minutes if I ask them to”. The Houthis said the tankers had been struck with “cruise and ballistic missiles as well as drones” in a declared “siege-for-siege” campaign. Saudi Arabia suspended some Red Sea oil movements and five tankers reversed course. Analysts warned Brent could pass its 2022 high of $128 if the Gulf war widens. Watch whether Mr Trump orders the strike he has threatened.

US Presses Its Strikes as Iran Claims Hits on Gulf Bases

American forces pressed on with their bombing of Iran, with US Central Command reporting fresh strikes on “maritime capabilities, missile and drone storage facilities, coastal surveillance sites and air-defence assets”. Two people were killed and eleven injured at Shalamcheh, near the Iraqi border, and a power substation beside the Bushehr nuclear plant was hit, causing outages. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard claimed retaliatory strikes on American bases in Kuwait and Jordan.

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The Guard said it had destroyed a warehouse, a Patriot battery and a drone hangar at the Ali al-Salem base in Kuwait, and a THAAD radar in Jordan — claims that could not be independently verified and that echoed assertions made earlier in the week. Air-raid sirens sounded in Bahrain, home to the US Fifth Fleet. Central Command said its campaign was steadily degrading Tehran’s ability to threaten shipping, and that it had redirected nine commercial vessels and disabled one. With diplomacy stalled, the risk of a wider regional war is rising. Watch for Iranian retaliation against Gulf energy infrastructure.

Rubio and Lavrov Meet in Manila to Test Ukraine Peace Hopes

The US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, met Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, on the sidelines of an Asean gathering in Manila for just over half an hour, though the encounter produced no breakthrough. Mr Rubio said Washington was “prepared to play a constructive role in bringing about an end to a senseless war”. Moscow said Mr Lavrov had “reaffirmed Russia’s readiness for a political and diplomatic settlement”.

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It was the latest in a series of contacts between the two since 2025, and came as Washington juggles the Ukraine file alongside its escalating confrontation with Iran. Mr Rubio conceded that the central obstacle remained finding “a settlement that both sides can accept”, while Russia repeated its objection to continued Western arms supplies to Kyiv and its demand that Ukraine cede territory. The talks yielded no ceasefire and no timetable. With Ukraine’s command in upheaval after the sacking of its army chief this week, the diplomatic and military tracks remain far apart. Watch whether the contacts build towards a leaders’ meeting.

Two Firefighters Die as Wildfires Sweep Southern Europe

Two firefighters have been killed battling a wildfire near Bordeaux in south-western France, where more than 10,000 holidaymakers were evacuated from campsites, as an intense heatwave drives temperatures above 40C across the Mediterranean. Fires are burning through France, Spain and Italy; Spain’s Guadalajara blaze has consumed some 32,000 hectares, and Italy has mobilised thousands to fight dozens of blazes.

Dive deeper
The Bordeaux firefighters died as the fast-moving Le Porge fire burned around 2,000 hectares near the Atlantic coast, forcing thousands to flee resort campsites. This summer has already scorched the second-largest area in the European Union in two decades, according to satellite monitoring, and forecasters warn the heat will persist across southern Europe. Spain, France and Italy have deployed thousands of firefighters and water-bombing aircraft, and further evacuations are expected. For the many Britons holidaying in the region, the fires and extreme heat pose a direct risk. Watch for travel disruption and the strain on emergency services.

Saudi Arabia Halts Some Red Sea Oil as the Blockade Bites

Saudi Arabia has suspended some of its Red Sea oil shipments after Houthi attacks on two of its tankers, with at least five vessels reversing course, deepening the disruption to global energy trade. The Iran-aligned Houthis have declared a blockade of the strategic Bab el-Mandeb strait, opening a second front alongside the throttled Strait of Hormuz. Maritime authorities reported a tanker ablaze some 70 nautical miles off the Saudi coast, its crew unharmed.

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The two chokepoints together carry a large share of the world’s seaborne crude, and their simultaneous disruption is the gravest since the war began. War-risk insurance premiums have soared, and refined-fuel markets — diesel and petrol above all — face the sharpest squeeze. The kingdom routes much of its exports through the Red Sea port of Yanbu, now imperilled, forcing Asia-bound cargoes onto longer routes. Goldman Sachs warned crude could reach $120 a barrel by the year’s end if the disruption persists. Watch whether Riyadh seeks naval escorts or Washington moves to reopen the sea lanes by force.

UK UK Domestic Politics

Healey Vows a ‘Fiscal Buffer’ as Gilt Yields Hit a Two-Month High

The Chancellor, John Healey, has used his first big set-piece in the City to pledge disciplined public finances, telling executives at Bloomberg’s London headquarters that he would meet the government’s fiscal rules “with a buffer against uncertainty”. Markets were unmoved: the thirty-year gilt yield climbed towards 5.75 per cent, a two-month high, and the ten-year held above 5 per cent, keeping British borrowing costs the dearest in the G7.

Dive deeper
On his third full day in post, Mr Healey said he and the Prime Minister would “work in lockstep” to steady the public finances, and struck a pro-business note, saying he was “just as concerned about the cost of business as about the cost of living”. Investors remain wary after Mr Burnham’s talk of seeking “flexibility” within the fiscal rules unsettled the bond market earlier in the week. With debt-interest costs running towards £110bn a year and the autumn Budget looming, the Chancellor has little room for manoeuvre. Watch the gilt market’s reaction and the Bank of England’s rate decision on 30 July.

Oil at $100 Sends the FTSE Lower and Rattles Global Markets

London’s FTSE 100 fell 78 points, or 0.7 per cent, to close at 10,639, retreating from a five-month high as oil’s surge above $100 a barrel stoked fears of renewed inflation. The sell-off was sharper on Wall Street, where the S&P 500 dropped 1.2 per cent and the Nasdaq more than 2 per cent, dragged down by heavy falls in Alphabet and Tesla after disappointing earnings. Gold slid around 2 per cent and volatility jumped.

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Energy majors Shell and BP rose with the oil price, cushioning the London market, but the broader mood was firmly risk-off as investors repriced the chance of interest-rate rises to contain an oil-driven inflation shock. The Vix “fear gauge” leapt some 16 per cent, and government bond yields rose on both sides of the Atlantic. The pound held around $1.34. For savers and borrowers, the message is that the Gulf war has reached the markets that price mortgages and pensions. Watch whether the sell-off deepens into the Bank of England’s decision next week.

Pump Prices Jump as $100 Oil Squeezes Burnham’s Cost-of-Living Plan

The surge in oil has begun to bite at the forecourt, with petrol rising around 5p to 155.6p a litre and diesel up 8p to 172.1p, according to the RAC, threatening the centrepiece of Andy Burnham’s cost-of-living agenda. The RAC’s Simon Williams said fuel prices were “shooting up like a rocket on the back of oil being above $90”. The Prime Minister spent Thursday promoting cheaper bills even as the war pushed them the other way.

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Mr Burnham’s flagship measures — a cut in VAT on domestic electricity from October, a £2 bus-fare cap and lower business rates for pubs — risk being overwhelmed by an energy shock beyond his control. With crude above $100, economists warn it will be hard for the new government to make a meaningful dent in household costs. Forecasters expect the oil spike to push inflation, which fell to 2.6 per cent in June, back above 3 per cent by the autumn, undoing much of the relief ministers have trumpeted. Watch pump prices and the next set of inflation figures.

Resident Doctors to Strike for Five Days as Waiting Lists Fall

Tens of thousands of resident doctors in England will stage a five-day strike from 25 July after rejecting the government’s pay offer, the British Medical Association has confirmed. The walkout, over a demand to restore pay eroded since 2008, threatens widespread cancellations of operations and appointments. The Health Secretary, Wes Streeting, urged the union to call it off, pointing to NHS waiting lists that have fallen to their lowest level since early 2023.

Dive deeper
The BMA’s resident-doctors committee said that “without a credible offer to keep us on the path to restore our pay, we have no choice but to call strikes”, after talks with Mr Streeting moved only on non-pay terms. The government says doctors have received pay rises averaging nearly 29 per cent over two years, the highest in the public sector. The waiting list fell for a second straight month to around 7.4 million, which Mr Streeting called a fragile recovery “only just beginning”. Watch whether last-minute talks avert the walkout.

Heat Alerts and Hosepipe Bans Widen as the Summer Bakes On

A fresh Thames Water hosepipe ban took effect across London on Thursday, extending restrictions that now cover more than 23 million people, as amber heat-health alerts remained in force across much of England. This year has become the first on record to see temperatures reach 35C in each of May, June and July. Water companies say prolonged heat and the driest spring on record have left reservoirs and rivers depleted.

Dive deeper
The bans, which prohibit hosepipes for watering gardens, washing cars or filling pools, follow similar curbs from suppliers across the South East. The UK Health Security Agency’s amber alerts warn of risks to the elderly and vulnerable, and health officials have urged people to stay hydrated and check on neighbours. Only a small fraction of England’s rivers are running at normal levels for the time of year. With little meaningful rain in the forecast, the pressure on water resources is set to intensify. Watch for further bans and any escalation to formal drought status.
One To Read

The Day the Oil War Reached $100

Al Jazeera · A clear round-up of Thursday’s escalation in the Gulf: the Houthi strikes on two Saudi tankers, the continuing American bombing of Iran, Brent crude’s breach of $100 a barrel, and Donald Trump’s threat of a ‘massive’ new attack on Tehran.
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Morning Briefing

Thursday 23 July 2026 — 08:00 BST

What It Means For You

  • Petrol & Bills: Oil has surged above $95 a barrel — a six-week high — as the Gulf war chokes shipping, threatening to push petrol and diesel prices back up just as UK inflation had eased to a 15-month low of 2.6 per cent. Forecourt costs could rise within weeks.
  • Your Water: Around 23 million people in England are now under hosepipe bans after Thames Water restricted its ten million customers, following the driest spring on record. Expect tighter curbs on watering gardens and washing cars as reservoirs run low.
  • Mortgages & Savings: UK borrowing costs remain the highest in the G7, with ten-year gilt yields near 5 per cent and the pound below $1.34, as markets question how the government’s giveaways will be funded. The Bank of England is expected to hold rates on 30 July.

GEO Geopolitical

US Bombs Iran for a Twelfth Night as Oil Spikes Anew

American forces struck Iran for a twelfth consecutive night, US Central Command said, hitting “maritime capabilities, missile and drone storage facilities, coastal surveillance sites and air-defence assets”. Explosions were reported across the south, from Bandar Abbas to Bushehr. Iran’s parliament speaker, Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf, was defiant: “The equation for this war is clear: it is all or nothing.” The Pentagon puts its losses at eighteen dead and 482 wounded.

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Central Command said the campaign was designed to keep degrading Tehran’s ability to threaten shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which it insists remains open; Iran’s health ministry says a month of American strikes has killed 53 people and injured 592. President Trump maintained his pressure-and-talk approach, claiming Iran was “not ready” for a deal “but will be very soon” — a characterisation an Iranian official dismissed as “completely unfounded”. A mediator-brokered ten-day truce, floated by Qatar, Egypt, Oman and Pakistan, remains unaccepted. Watch whether Washington makes good on its threat to strike the fortified enrichment site south of Natanz.

Oil Tops $95 as a Saudi Tanker Burns in the Red Sea

Brent crude pushed above $95 a barrel, a six-week high and a near-$20 rise since fighting resumed on 7 July, after fresh attacks on Gulf shipping. Yemen’s Houthis said they had struck two oil tankers; the Saudi-linked Encelia was hit and caught fire at the bow, though its crew were reported safe. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard separately claimed a tanker had caught fire after an explosion near the Strait of Hormuz.

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With the strait already throttled, traders now face a second front as the Houthis enforce a widening blockade of Saudi-linked cargo in the Red Sea. One shipping executive, Nikolas Maniatis, said bluntly that “nothing is going through” the waterway for international merchant vessels. Refined fuels — diesel and petrol above all — are under the greatest price pressure, and war-risk insurance has multiplied. For British motorists the effect feeds straight to the forecourt just as domestic inflation had begun to ease. Watch the Bab el-Mandeb and Hormuz chokepoints, and whether Riyadh retaliates.

Trump Threatens Iran’s ‘Pickaxe Mountain’ as Tehran Denies Nuclear Work

President Trump has warned that the United States will strike a fortified site south of Natanz known as “Pickaxe Mountain”, which Western intelligence believes shelters Iran’s centrifuge programme. Tehran on Wednesday denied conducting any nuclear activity at the complex. Iran’s top joint military command has threatened to target American and allied interests across the region should its nuclear facilities be hit.

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Built roughly a hundred metres into a mountain, the complex — construction of which began in 2020 as a replacement centrifuge-assembly plant — would be the single most escalatory target available to Washington, and neither the United States nor Israel has struck it. Israeli assessments hold that Iran moved centrifuges, and possibly enriched uranium, there last autumn; Tehran insists its programme is peaceful. A strike would test the durability of the stalled diplomatic track and risk a wider regional war. Watch the response from the International Atomic Energy Agency and whether Iran hardens its posture.

Zelensky Sacks His Army Chief After Days of Kyiv Protests

President Zelensky has dismissed his commander-in-chief, General Oleksandr Syrskyi, and named the ground-forces commander, Major-General Mykhailo Drapatyi, to lead Ukraine’s army. The move follows nearly a week of protests in Kyiv, sparked by the earlier removal of the defence minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, with demonstrators demanding Syrskyi’s departure. Mr Zelensky has ordered the new command to produce an updated defence strategy.

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It is the most significant shake-up of Ukraine’s military leadership since the full-scale invasion began, and comes as Russia intensifies long-range strikes exploiting a shortage of Patriot interceptors. The new brief reportedly spans corps reform, faster drone and weapons deliveries, stronger air defence and clearer mobilisation rules. Protesters had also demanded Mr Fedorov’s reinstatement, a mark of febrile wartime politics as the front lines barely move. Watch whether the command change steadies morale or deepens the rift between the presidency and the army.

Wildfires Rage Across Spain and France Amid Another Heatwave

Spain, France and Italy are battling fierce wildfires as a third heatwave of the summer pushes temperatures towards 44C. A blaze in Spain’s Guadalajara region has consumed some 32,000 hectares, one of the country’s largest on record, while fires in the French Var and on Sicily have forced evacuations. Spain’s prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, said: “Climate change kills and destroys wealth… This isn’t politics. It is science.”

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Forecasters expect 42–44C across parts of the Spanish Mediterranean and above 41C in Greece, with nationwide alerts in Greece and Cyprus. The current fires follow a devastating blaze near Almería this month that killed thirteen people, several of them foreign nationals, and France has recorded thousands of excess deaths during its June heat. The commander of the effort in the Var, William Vogl, said simply: “The situation has been very difficult.” For the many Britons holidaying in southern Europe, the heat and fires are a direct hazard. Watch the fire risk as temperatures peak this week.

UK UK Domestic Politics

Burnham Weighs North Sea Drilling in a Manifesto Reckoning

Andy Burnham’s government is weighing approval for drilling at the Rosebank and Jackdaw fields, a move campaigners say would shatter Labour’s 2024 manifesto pledge to issue no new oil and gas licences. Both fields already hold consents granted in 2022–23, but an Edinburgh court voided them last year over unaccounted emissions. The new energy secretary, Miatta Fahnbulleh, is reviewing the schemes as ministers hunt for growth and energy security.

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Rosebank is the largest undeveloped field in the North Sea, and its fate has become an early test of how far Mr Burnham will bend green commitments in pursuit of investment and revenue. Robin Wells of Fossil Free London protested that it was “pointless to have a manifesto commitment to stop oil and gas and then say ‘we’re just going to approve the largest new fields’”. The energy department countered that “oil and gas will continue to play an important role in our energy system for decades to come”. With the Gulf war driving crude to six-week highs, the pressure to drill is intensifying. Watch for a decision and the backbench reaction.

UK Borrowing Costs Stay Highest in the G7 as Sterling Slips

British government borrowing costs remain the dearest in the G7, with the ten-year gilt yield holding near 5.07 per cent, its highest since May, as investors weigh Mr Burnham’s spending pledges against his talk of fiscal “flexibility”. Sterling has slipped to around $1.337. The FTSE 100, by contrast, touched a five-month high near 10,717, buoyed by its heavy weighting in energy and commodity shares as oil climbs.

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The premium on UK debt reflects lingering scars from the 2022 mini-Budget, a heavy public-debt load and doubts over how this summer’s cost-of-living giveaways will be funded. Softer inflation and labour-market data have reinforced expectations that the Bank of England will hold Bank Rate at its meeting on 30 July, its so-called “Super Thursday”. But the oil-driven threat to inflation complicates that calculus. Watch the gilt market’s reaction to the Bank’s guidance, and to any further spending commitments before the autumn Budget.

Burnham Governs as Preferred PM but Faces a Sceptical Public

Andy Burnham enters Downing Street as the public’s clear choice for prime minister but with doubts over his readiness, polling suggests. Ipsos found three in ten Britons named him their preferred premier, on 30 per cent, well ahead of Reform’s Nigel Farage on 16 per cent and the Conservatives’ Kemi Badenoch on 13. Yet on raw voting intention Reform still led Labour narrowly, by 26 per cent to 24.

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The survey of 1,045 adults, conducted in late June before Mr Burnham replaced Sir Keir Starmer, found the public split on whether he is ready for the job: 29 per cent agreed he was, against 39 per cent who did not. Keiran Pedley, Ipsos’s director of politics, said Labour “will be more optimistic about the future than they were a month ago”, but cautioned that “the jury is out with the public on whether Burnham himself is ready to be Prime Minister and whether a Burnham government will deliver in office”. Watch whether his cost-of-living blitz shifts the numbers.

Millions More Face Hosepipe Bans as England Dries Out

Around 23 million people in England are now under hosepipe bans after Thames Water became the latest supplier to restrict its ten million customers. The curbs follow the driest spring on record for England and Wales and three successive heatwaves. Only 13 per cent of rivers are running at normal levels for the time of year, and several reservoirs are classed as notably or exceptionally low.

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The bans, which forbid using hosepipes to water gardens or wash cars, now stretch across the Thames Valley, the Home Counties, London and the South East, where South East Water recently extended its own restrictions. Several reservoirs are running low: Blagdon in Somerset is classed as exceptionally low, and Wimbleball, Grafham and Hanningfield as notably low. Water companies face renewed criticism over leakage even as they curb household use. With little rain forecast and the heat persisting, pressure on supplies is set to intensify. Watch whether more suppliers impose bans and whether ministers escalate drought planning.

Oil’s Surge Threatens to Undo Britain’s Inflation Relief

The jump in crude prices driven by the Gulf war threatens to reverse the fall in British inflation that has buoyed Mr Burnham’s opening days. Brent’s climb above $95 a barrel feeds quickly into petrol and diesel, the very costs that pushed headline inflation down to 2.6 per cent in June, a fifteen-month low. Forecasters already expected inflation to climb back towards 3.4 per cent by the autumn; the oil spike sharpens that risk.

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June’s easing, reported by the Office for National Statistics, owed much to cheaper motor fuel during a brief lull in the oil market — a lull now decisively over. The Ofgem energy price cap rose this month, and a sustained move in crude would lift forecourt prices within weeks, squeezing households just as the government trumpets cheaper bills and bus fares. It also complicates the Bank of England’s task before its 30 July decision. Watch pump prices and the next inflation print for the first signs of the war reaching British wallets.
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The Chokepoint That Moves the World’s Oil

Al Jazeera · The head of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, warns that the fighting around the Strait of Hormuz — the route for roughly a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil — now threatens global energy security, as strikes and tanker attacks choke the vital waterway.
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Evening Briefing

Wednesday 22 July 2026 — 18:15 BST

What It Means For You

  • Tax & Bills: Andy Burnham ruled out tax rises at the autumn Budget and stepped back from his hint that he might unfreeze the £12,570 personal allowance, insisting his cost-of-living measures are “fully funded” by cuts elsewhere. Scrapping the digital ID scheme will pay the £850m cost of removing VAT from electricity bills from October.
  • Petrol & Energy: Brent crude jumped to a six-week high above $93 a barrel — spiking towards $95 during the session — as President Trump threatened to bomb an Iranian bridge or power plant for every ship attacked in the Strait of Hormuz. Pump and energy costs will keep rising while both the Gulf and Red Sea routes are threatened.
  • Savings & Markets: The FTSE 100 closed at a five-month high on the softer inflation figures and a commodities rally, and gold hit a record. But ten-year gilt yields stayed pinned near 5 per cent, the market’s cautious verdict on the new government’s spending.

GEO Geopolitical

Trump Vows to Bomb a Bridge or Power Plant for Every Ship Hit

President Trump unveiled a stark new retaliation doctrine, declaring that the United States would “bomb and destroy one bridge or power plant” — including targets in or beside Tehran — every time Iran fires on a ship in the Strait of Hormuz. The threat followed an eleventh straight night of US strikes and came alongside a renewed vow to hit the fortified “Pickaxe Mountain” nuclear site near Natanz. Iran’s military warned any such attack would trigger a “powerful assault”.

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Legal scholars swiftly branded the infrastructure threat a likely breach of the international-law bar on attacks on civilian targets, and a senior Iranian official warned Tehran would answer by “striking infrastructure and bridges across the region”, including facilities in which America has interests. Pickaxe Mountain, buried deep inside a mountain south of Tehran, is assessed by experts as beyond the reach of even America’s heaviest bunker-busters; Western intelligence suspects Iran has moved centrifuges there. Overnight strikes hit Tabriz, Chabahar and Bushehr, with air defences firing over the capital. With June’s memorandum in tatters, both sides have dug in over the waterway. Watch whether the Natanz threat is carried out.

Oil Hits a Six-Week High as War Chokes Two Sea Routes

Brent crude surged to a six-week high, jumping as much as 4 per cent to around $93 a barrel and spiking towards $95 during the session, as Washington talked down peace prospects and traders confronted a “dual-strait” threat. Iranian attacks have throttled the Strait of Hormuz to a trickle, while a fresh Houthi blockade menaces the Bab el-Mandeb, forcing tankers of Saudi crude bound for Asia to turn back towards Suez. US pump prices ticked up above $4 a gallon.

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The move marks the sharpest energy shock since the war reignited, with the near-term Brent premium widening to its deepest since late May — a market signalling acute scarcity. Traders now watch two chokepoints at once: roughly a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil normally passes Hormuz, while the Bab el-Mandeb has become the workaround route for Saudi barrels. Asian refiners are re-routing Red Sea cargoes around Africa, lengthening voyages and lifting freight costs. “The energy market now has the dual-strait worry,” one analyst noted. For British households the pressure feeds straight to forecourts and, in time, energy bills. Watch whether prices hold above $90 or spike further on a twelfth-night escalation.

Iran Strikes Back Across the Gulf as Rubio Warns Asia on Hormuz

Iran fired a missile at a Jordanian city near Israel and triggered alerts in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, retaliating for the latest American bombardment; Tehran’s health ministry says US strikes have now killed 53 people over eleven days. In Manila, the US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, told Southeast Asian ministers that letting Iran control and tax the Strait of Hormuz would set a “very dangerous precedent”, and held a rare sideline meeting with China’s foreign minister.

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Mr Rubio’s warning universalised the Hormuz crisis, casting it as a test of freedom of navigation with direct echoes for the contested South China Sea, where a fresh China–Philippines clash shadowed the ASEAN gathering. His meeting with Wang Yi touched on Iran, the maritime dispute and a planned Xi Jinping visit to Washington. He insisted the United States “remains open” to talks “so long as the commitments that are made are kept”, while blaming Tehran for the collapse. Jordan intercepted the incoming missiles. The widening arc of Iranian reprisals now spans Jordan, Bahrain, Kuwait and Saudi alerts. Watch whether Gulf states are drawn deeper into a war on their own soil.

Ukraine Turns Its Drones on Southern Russia’s Oil and Supply Lines

Ukrainian long-range drones struck warehouses, an oil depot and Russia’s biggest online retailer deep inside Krasnodar and Stavropol, injuring at least eight and killing one. President Zelensky confirmed the raids and said thirteen Russian “shadow fleet” vessels had been hit in the Black and Azov seas over 48 hours, part of a campaign Kyiv says is designed to drag Moscow back to the negotiating table.

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The daytime strikes mark an intensifying phase of a campaign that since early July has targeted nearly 200 Russian vessels and scores of energy sites, choking the logistics that sustain occupied Crimea and the front. “We are justly returning the war to its source — to Russia,” Mr Zelensky said. The pressure comes as the Kremlin is reported to be hardening its peace terms, no longer intending to hand back any occupied territory and planning to keep parts of the Sumy and Kharkiv regions as permanent “buffer zones”, with President Putin said to be holding out to seize all of Donetsk first. Any negotiated end to the war appears to have receded further. Watch whether the deep-strike pressure shifts Moscow’s posture or hardens it.

Flash Floods Kill 23 and Leave 100 Missing in Afghanistan

Flash floods that tore through Afghanistan’s remote Nuristan province have killed at least 23 people and left more than 100 missing, with rescue crews digging through mud and rubble for a second day. Some 80 people were injured and buildings collapsed when the waters struck; the toll is expected to climb as teams reach cut-off villages, and forecasters warn of further flooding across ten provinces.

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Nuristan’s steep valleys funnel sudden downpours into walls of water and debris, and mud-and-stone homes offer little protection; the same province lost more than a hundred people to floods in 2021. Afghanistan ranks among the world’s most disaster-exposed nations, yet its emergency response has been hollowed out since the Taliban’s 2021 return froze international assets and cut development aid. More than 300 died in floods in 2024 and at least 110 earlier this year. With heavy rain and further flash flooding forecast, officials have urged residents away from riverbanks. Watch the rising death toll as access to isolated hamlets improves.

UK UK Domestic Politics

Burnham Rules Out Budget Tax Rises and Cools Allowance Talk

The Prime Minister ruled out tax rises at the autumn Budget and stepped back from his own hint that he might unfreeze the £12,570 personal allowance, insisting his cost-of-living measures are “fully funded” by reprioritising existing budgets. “We’ll take decisions on tax at the Budget. This is about reprioritising in this phase,” Mr Burnham said on a walkabout in Bath, hours after unveiling the £2 bus-fare cap.

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Mr Burnham had told a weekend interview that the frozen allowance was “the thing I heard the most on the doorsteps”; by Wednesday, with markets jittery, he said there was “no commitment at this point”. The allowance has been frozen since 2021, dragging more workers into higher bands through fiscal drag. The Shadow Chancellor, Sir Mel Stride, said the pattern of unfunded pledges “leads to a conclusion that we are probably heading towards tax increases”. Watch whether the Chancellor, John Healey, can hold the “no tax rises” line against a Budget already straining under new spending commitments.

Burnham Axes Starmer’s Digital ID Scheme to Fund Cheaper Bills

Downing Street confirmed that the £850m cost of scrapping VAT on household electricity from October will be met by cancelling Sir Keir Starmer’s flagship digital ID programme. It is the first concrete casualty of Mr Burnham’s cost-of-living reprioritisation, killing off one of his predecessor’s signature reforms to bankroll a tax cut worth about £45 per household.

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The government insists the electricity measure is “fully funded” for this financial year through the cancellation of the scheme, which had been championed under Sir Keir as a route to controlling illegal working. It is a separate pot from the £2 bus-fare cap, which draws on a £454m reallocation from the energy department’s international climate-finance budget. Redirecting money earmarked for one reform to fund another underlines how tightly Mr Burnham is squeezing existing envelopes rather than finding fresh cash — a tactic economists warn cannot be repeated indefinitely. Watch for a backlash from immigration hawks who saw digital ID as a border-control tool.

Burnham Orders Early-Release Review After Harper Killers Outcry

The Prime Minister ordered his new Justice Secretary to review Labour’s prison early-release policy after fury that two of PC Andrew Harper’s killers could walk free halfway through their sentences. Mr Burnham said the ringleader would not qualify but stopped short of guaranteeing the others would serve full terms, promising to examine “every single part” of the scheme before it takes effect in September.

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Jessie Cole and Albert Bowers, jailed for the 2019 manslaughter of the Thames Valley officer, may be eligible for release at the halfway point under the Sentencing Act; the driver, Henry Long, will not. Harper’s widow branded the prospect “deplorable”. “I will review the whole of this policy,” Mr Burnham said; “nobody can deny the pressure on prison places, but I want to assure myself that everything has been looked at before this policy proceeds.” The episode was inflamed by a hot-mic clip of ministers joking about the policy, for which the Defence Secretary, Wes Streeting, apologised. Watch whether the review carves out exemptions for the most serious offenders.

FTSE Hits a Five-Month High as Gilts Stay Pinned Near 5 Per Cent

London’s blue-chip index closed at its highest since February, powered by miners and oil majors, even as the government-bond market kept the new administration on a short leash. The FTSE 100 finished at 10,716.97, up 1.24 per cent, and gold hit a record. But ten-year gilt yields held near 5 per cent, still the highest in the G7, and sterling slipped below $1.34 despite the softer June inflation figures.

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The split told its own story: the equity rally was a global commodity trade, riding the surge in oil and a record gold price, while the bond market delivered a domestic verdict on Mr Burnham’s talk of fiscal “flexibility”. Analysts said gilt yields could fall by at least 20 basis points if the government sticks to the existing fiscal rules, but a rule change could push the risk premium “materially higher”. ING’s James Smith called the cooler June data “welcome news for the Bank of England hawks” ahead of the rate decision on 30 July. Watch the gilt curve for the market’s read on the Chancellor’s first Budget.

Burnham Courts Scotland and Wales as Sarwar Heads to the Lords

The new Prime Minister opened a charm offensive with the devolved nations, winning cautious goodwill from the Scottish and Welsh first ministers, who said he seemed readier to listen than Sir Keir Starmer. In a linked move, the Scottish Labour leader, Anas Sarwar, is standing down to take a peerage and a ministerial post, reshaping the party’s leadership north of the border less than a year before the Holyrood election.

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The Welsh First Minister, Rhun ap Iorwerth, said Mr Burnham was “open to listening perhaps in a way that Keir Starmer wasn’t”, pressing for policing, rail and funding to be devolved. Scotland’s John Swinney said the Prime Minister had promised a “collaborative” relationship, while watching whether the retained Scottish Secretary matches the warmer words. Mr Sarwar’s elevation to the Lords, expected to bring a business ministry, removes a sitting leader from Holyrood politics at a delicate moment. Watch whether the devolution overtures translate into concrete transfers of power or stay at the level of mood music.
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Two Straits, One Oil Shock

Al Jazeera · With Iran throttling the Strait of Hormuz and the Houthis now blockading the Bab el-Mandeb, the world’s oil is being squeezed through two chokepoints at once. A clear explainer on why Saudi tankers bound for Asia are turning back towards Suez, how re-routing around Africa lifts prices and freight costs, and what a sustained “dual-strait” disruption would mean for petrol pumps and inflation worldwide.
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Morning Briefing

Wednesday 22 July 2026 — 08:00 BST

What It Means For You

  • Cheaper Buses & Bills: Single bus fares in England will be capped at £2 from January, down from £3, in Andy Burnham’s second cost-of-living measure in two days after scrapping VAT on electricity. Inflation has also fallen to 2.6 per cent, a 15-month low, largely on cheaper petrol and diesel.
  • Petrol & Energy: The relief may be brief: Brent crude has climbed towards $93 a barrel, its highest in five weeks, as an eleventh night of US strikes on Iran and a Houthi blockade of Red Sea shipping keep the pressure on. Forecasters expect inflation to climb back towards 3.4 per cent by November.
  • Savings & Markets: Ten-year gilt yields are holding near a two-month high around 5 per cent and the pound has slipped below $1.34, as investors question how the giveaways will be funded before the autumn Budget. Economists warn tax rises may follow. Gold hit a fresh record.

GEO Geopolitical

US Bombs Iran for an Eleventh Night as Trump Threatens Natanz

American forces struck Iran for an eleventh consecutive night, with air defences firing over Tehran and blasts reported near Bushehr, Tabriz and Chabahar. US Central Command said the barrage was designed to keep degrading Iran’s ability to threaten Hormuz shipping. President Trump threatened to hit a suspected underground enrichment site near Natanz, known as “Pickaxe Mountain”, warning: “We’ll be hitting that area pretty soon, and very heavily.” The American military death toll has reached eighteen.

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Central Command said it had targeted military operations centres, aircraft hangars, drone-storage and logistics sites, insisting the strait “remains open”. Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya command warned it would treat any strike on its nuclear facilities as “an expansion of war in the region”, threatening “all the interests of America”. The Defence Secretary, Pete Hegseth, told the Senate the war had now cost $37.5bn and requested urgent supplemental funding. A strike on Natanz would be the single most escalatory step available to Washington. Watch whether Mr Trump follows through, and how Tehran — which insists its programme is peaceful — responds.

Rubio Says Iran Is “Not Serious” About Talks as Strikes Go On

The US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, said Tehran was “not serious” about negotiations as the two sides traded an eleventh night of fire, with a mediator-tabled ten-day ceasefire still unaccepted. Washington is holding out for a longer pause and a guarantee of safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz first. A US official said the strikes would continue until the President decided otherwise, “but talks between our countries are continuing”.

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The ten-day proposal, carried by Qatari, Egyptian, Omani and Pakistani mediators, would revive the 17 June memorandum whose collapse reignited the war, and reportedly floats a “middle corridor” of safe transit between Omani- and Iranian-controlled waters. Washington’s dual track — nightly strikes alongside open channels — is aimed at making Tehran “pay a price” for the deaths of American troops while keeping a diplomatic exit in view. Pakistan’s prime minister pressed mediation in talks with Iran’s interior minister. Watch whether Washington escalates to strengthen its hand or finally engages the mediators directly.

Oil Nears $93 as the Houthis Turn Back Saudi Tankers

Brent crude climbed towards $93 a barrel, a five-week high, after Yemen’s Houthis enforced a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia, forcing two tankers laden with Saudi crude bound for China and India to reverse course in the Red Sea. With the Strait of Hormuz already throttled, the closure threatens the kingdom’s main alternative export route. Kazakhstan separately halted Black Sea exports after a fourth drone strike on tankers at its Novorossiysk terminal.

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The Houthis warned shippers they would attack any vessel loading or discharging Saudi cargo, in retaliation for a Saudi strike on Sanaa. Saudi Arabia routes much of its exports through the Red Sea port of Yanbu, now imperilled, while the Kazakh suspension removes another 80 per cent of that country’s crude from a market already squeezed by the Gulf war. Analysts warn prices could reach $115 or more if the Bab el-Mandeb strait closes, with European diesel margins already at record highs and US petrol back above $4 a gallon. For British drivers the pressure feeds straight to the pumps. Watch whether the Houthis attempt enforcement, and how Riyadh responds.

Ukraine Launches a 400-Drone Raid on the Moscow Region

Ukraine struck an oil depot and logistics hubs across the Moscow region in one of its largest drone raids of the war, with Russian officials claiming more than 400 drones approached the capital. President Zelensky said Kyiv had also hit six Russian vessels in the Black Sea, including sanctioned “shadow fleet” tankers. Russia, meanwhile, pressed one of its heaviest ballistic barrages on Kyiv.

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The strikes hit an oil depot and logistics facilities more than 400km from the border; Moscow’s mayor said 85 drones were downed near the capital. The Institute for the Study of War reports Ukraine has struck more than a hundred energy sites in occupied Crimea this month, while Russia’s escalating long-range strikes, exploiting a global shortage of Patriot interceptors, drove record civilian casualties in June. Neither side made confirmed frontline advances. The war’s centre of gravity is shifting to deep-rear infrastructure — oil depots, ports and shadow-fleet tankers — as each side targets the other’s war economy. Watch the tit-for-tat energy strikes and their effect on global fuel prices.

Two Firefighters Die as Record Wildfires Ravage France

Two firefighters were killed battling a blaze near Bordeaux-Mérignac airport as France endures its worst wildfire season on record. More than 42,000 hectares have burned since January, surpassing the 2022 record, with a separate out-of-control fire in the Var forcing evacuations. President Macron said France had not seen so many blazes since the Second World War.

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The Bordeaux fire spread from brushland to an airport building, delaying flights, while some 600 firefighters fought a fast-moving blaze in the Pontevès commune, where 150 people were evacuated. France has recorded nearly 11,000 fires this year amid prolonged heatwaves, and ministers warned of “severe risk” across the south this week. The crisis spans the continent: Spain has lost tens of thousands of hectares north of Madrid with at least thirteen dead. For the many Britons holidaying in France and Spain this summer, the fires and heat are a direct concern. Watch escalating heatwave conditions and the strain on European emergency services.

UK UK Domestic Politics

Burnham Caps Bus Fares at £2 in a Fresh Cost-of-Living Blitz

Single bus fares across England will be capped at £2 from January and held there through 2027, the Prime Minister has announced, cutting the current £3 limit by a third for millions. It is Andy Burnham’s second cost-of-living intervention in as many days, after Tuesday’s VAT cut on domestic electricity. The scheme, which he ran as Greater Manchester mayor, is backed by £454m of funding.

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The £2 cap was in force nationally between January 2023 and December 2024 before the previous government raised it to £3, arguing the lower rate was unaffordable. Mr Burnham said “no one should be priced out” of affordable transport, while the Chancellor, John Healey, said the cut was “funded by savings made elsewhere, so there’s no burden to British taxpayers”. Critics note that much of the money is drawn by reallocating departmental budgets — including sums earmarked for international climate finance — rather than new revenue, a tactic economists warn cannot be repeated indefinitely. Watch whether devolved regions follow suit, and how the funding holds up at the Budget.

Inflation Slips to 2.6 Per Cent, a 15-Month Low, as Fuel Falls

Inflation fell to 2.6 per cent in the year to June, down from 2.8 per cent in May and below the 2.7 per cent economists had expected, official figures showed. It is the lowest reading since spring 2025, driven chiefly by cheaper diesel and petrol, with food and clothing prices also easing. The figures hand the new Prime Minister an early, if fragile, boost as he presses his cost-of-living measures.

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The Office for National Statistics attributed the slowdown mainly to falling motor-fuel prices during June’s brief lull in the oil market; its chief economist, Grant Fitzner, said cheaper diesel, chocolate, margarine and beef, plus early summer sales on clothing, had eased the figure. Food inflation fell to 1.7 per cent, its lowest in nearly a year. But the relief looks temporary: the Ofgem price cap rose 13 per cent on 1 July, oil has since rebounded above $92, and forecasters expect headline inflation to climb back towards 3.4 per cent by November. Core and services inflation stayed sticky, keeping the Bank of England wary. Watch the Bank’s rate decision on 30 July.

Economists Warn Burnham’s Giveaways Point to Autumn Tax Rises

As the government trumpets cheaper energy and bus fares, economists warn the spending points to tax rises at the Chancellor’s first Budget. June borrowing came in at £16bn, some £7.9bn below a year earlier but still ahead of official forecasts, and analysts say there is little room for extra borrowing. The Institute for Fiscal Studies has questioned how this year’s giveaways will be sustained beyond 2026.

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Mr Burnham and Mr Healey have committed to the previous Chancellor’s fiscal rules while pledging to use “any flexibility” within them, a phrase that unsettled bond markets on Monday. Helen Miller of the IFS said the government had “found funding for this year, but only by reallocating savings that haven’t yet been made”, asking how the VAT cut would be paid for “next year and the year after”. Ruth Gregory of Capital Economics warned “there is limited scope for extra borrowing”. With unions pressing to unfreeze income-tax thresholds — a move costing at least £4bn — the Budget arithmetic is tightening. Watch how the sums are squared in the autumn.

Gilts Hold Near 5 Per Cent as Markets Eye the Bank of England

The cooler inflation print offered only limited comfort to bond markets, where British borrowing costs remain the highest in the G7. Ten-year gilt yields are holding around 5 per cent and the pound has slipped below $1.34 to a one-week low, after the Prime Minister’s remarks about fiscal “flexibility” rattled investors on Monday. Attention now turns to the Bank of England’s rate decision on 30 July, where a hold is expected.

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Yields spiked on Monday, with the ten-year rising above 5 per cent and the thirty-year to a two-month high, before steadying once Mr Healey’s appointment as Chancellor calmed nerves. Softer inflation nudges the argument that the Bank may eventually have room to ease, but core and services inflation stayed sticky and policymakers have flagged a likely re-acceleration towards 3 per cent over the summer as the energy-bill rise and the oil spike feed through. The scars of the 2022 mini-budget and Britain’s high public debt continue to keep a premium on UK borrowing. Watch whether the new government’s spending plans steady or unsettle the market into the autumn.

Sacked Starmer Loyalists Nurse Their Wounds on the Backbenches

Mr Burnham’s swift purge of Sir Keir Starmer’s allies has left a restive bloc of former ministers on the Labour benches, testing party discipline in his opening days. Pointed parting shots — the ousted Treasury minister Darren Jones has already needled the government over its “unfunded” energy policy — suggest the peace will be uneasy. Some MPs have dismissed the reshuffle as the “same gang, different seats”.

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Beyond Rachel Reeves and David Lammy, much of the new top team served under Sir Keir, blunting Mr Burnham’s promise of a clean break and prompting grumbles that the changes reward those who helped force his predecessor out. The sacked Cabinet minister Steve Reed, in a letter to the new Prime Minister, wrote that Sir Keir “showed loyalty to me… I hope those who did not show loyalty to Keir will now show it to you”. Managing the wounded faction falls to a Burnham ally, with Parliament in recess until 1 September removing the Commons as a pressure valve — but also denying the leadership a stage to project unity. Watch whether the bloc stays quiet through the summer.
One To Read

Burnham’s First 24 Hours

BBC News · A close read of Andy Burnham’s opening day and a half as Prime Minister — the ruthless Cabinet clear-out, the rapid-fire cost-of-living announcements on energy and bus fares, the bond-market nerves and the “unfunded” charge from his own sacked colleagues — and what it all reveals about how a leader who never faced the country intends to govern.
☾

Evening Briefing

Tuesday 21 July 2026 — 18:00 BST

What It Means For You

  • A Cost-of-Living Government: Andy Burnham chaired his first Cabinet and declared a “cost-of-living government”, confirming VAT scrapped on domestic electricity from 1 October — about £45 off a typical bill — though a sacked minister branded it “unfunded”. Markets steadied: the FTSE reversed higher to close up and official figures showed pay growth cooling.
  • Petrol & Energy: Brent crude rebounded above $91 a barrel as a tenth night of US strikes, a stalled truce and a new Houthi blockade of Red Sea shipping overwhelmed diplomacy hopes. Petrol pumps and winter energy bills remain squeezed.
  • Savings & Markets: Ten-year gilt yields held near a two-month high around 5 per cent and sterling stayed soft as investors waited to see how Mr Burnham’s giveaways will be funded; the real test comes at the autumn Budget. Gold hit a fresh record high.

GEO Geopolitical

Iran Weighs a Ten-Day Truce as Trump Demands Tehran Pay

Tehran has received a mediator proposal for a ten-day ceasefire to salvage last month’s interim deal, Iran’s foreign ministry confirmed on Tuesday, signalling that diplomatic channels remain open. Washington is holding out for a longer pause and firm Strait of Hormuz navigation guarantees before any halt, and says its strikes will continue until the President decides otherwise. A tenth consecutive night of American bombing preceded the overtures.

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The proposal, carried by Qatari, Egyptian, Omani and Pakistani mediators, would revive the 17 June memorandum whose collapse reignited full-scale exchanges. Iran’s interior minister made a second visit to Islamabad in a week to ask Pakistan to resume mediation. Yet the two sides remain far apart, and President Trump’s posture leaves little diplomatic daylight: “Every time Iran kills an American soldier they will pay for that killing many times over,” he wrote. The Revolutionary Guard answered that its “missiles and drones will rain down on American criminals” for as long as the war lasted. Watch whether Washington turns the offer into a counter-proposal or another night of strikes.

Oil Rebounds Above $91 as the Houthis Blockade the Red Sea

Brent crude rebounded to more than $91 a barrel on Tuesday, reversing an early dip, after Yemen’s Houthis declared a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia and a tanker was abandoned off Oman. The blockade opens a second front in the region’s shipping war, widening supply fears from the Gulf to the Red Sea, even as mediators pressed a ceasefire proposal. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains near a standstill.

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The Iran-aligned group framed the embargo as retaliation for Saudi Arabia’s war in Yemen, “an eye for an eye, effective immediately”, threatening the very route the kingdom uses to bypass Hormuz. Earlier, a tanker was struck by an unknown projectile east of Oman’s Limah, forcing its crew into a lifeboat, Britain’s maritime authority said, while Iran’s Guard claimed two tankers had caught fire on the strait’s southern route. With Hormuz transits down to a handful of vessels a day and inventories at multi-year lows, any escalation is enough to keep prices tense. For British drivers the pressure feeds straight to the pumps. Watch whether the Houthis move from declaration to attack.

ASEAN Demands a Hormuz Truce as Rubio Lands in Manila

Southeast Asian foreign ministers opened their annual meeting in Manila on Tuesday under the shadow of the US–Iran war, preparing a joint statement demanding an immediate halt to hostilities and the restoration of safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, arrived for his first visit to the region as America’s top diplomat, as Washington condemned a “dangerous” Chinese clash with the Philippine navy.

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The bloc is heavily dependent on Gulf crude, giving the Hormuz crisis direct economic bite across the region. The draft communiqué calls for a “complete and immediate cessation of hostilities across all fronts” and the safe, unimpeded transit of vessels through the strait. The gathering doubles as a stage for great-power friction, with China’s Wang Yi and Russia’s Sergei Lavrov also in Manila, though the marquee sideline meetings fall later in the week. Mr Rubio used an op-ed to reaffirm American commitment to freedom of navigation amid the South China Sea standoff. Watch for any Rubio–Wang or Rubio–Lavrov contact before the summit closes.

Kazakhstan Halts Black Sea Oil Exports After Tanker Drone Strikes

Kazakhstan suspended crude shipments through its main export terminal near Russia’s Novorossiysk on Tuesday after a wave of drone attacks left tanker operators too nervous to sail, threatening roughly 80 per cent of the country’s oil exports. The strikes on vessels loading Kazakh crude, widely attributed to Ukraine, have dragged a neutral third country’s energy lifeline into the Black Sea shipping war.

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The Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal, which carries Kazakh crude some 1,500km to the Russian coast, halted loadings after tankers were hit on 17, 19 and 20 July, several set ablaze while loading. Producers face output cuts if the suspension holds to the week’s end. Kyiv has not claimed the strikes but has openly widened its campaign against Russian energy revenue and tanker traffic; Moscow branded them “terrorism”. Landing as Hormuz traffic collapses and the Houthis menace the Red Sea, the closure tightens a third major crude artery at once. Watch for Kazakh output curbs and a wider war-risk premium on Black Sea shipping.

Russia and Ukraine Trade Heavy Drone Barrages as Talks Stall

Russia and Ukraine exchanged fresh waves of drone attacks overnight into Tuesday, with Moscow claiming more than 200 Ukrainian drones downed and Kyiv reporting dozens of Russian strike drones. Russia said it had again hit cargo vessels at Ukraine’s Chornomorsk port, which it alleged were carrying military supplies. No date has been set for the peace talks Kyiv has been pressing for.

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Russia’s defence ministry said its air defences destroyed 209 Ukrainian drones across at least ten regions including the Moscow area, while Ukraine said 46 of 58 incoming Russian drones were downed. Moscow again claimed strikes on Chornomorsk, the deep-water Odesa-region port central to Ukraine’s grain trade, where the top exporter Kernel has frozen operations after some of the war’s heaviest attacks on its assets. With both sides now routinely striking each other’s ports and shipping, the maritime dimension of the war is hardening even as a negotiated pause stays out of reach. Watch for any movement towards the indirect contacts floated for the region.

UK UK Domestic Politics

Burnham Tells His First Cabinet: We Are a Cost-of-Living Government

Andy Burnham chaired the first meeting of his new Cabinet on Tuesday, declaring his administration a “cost-of-living government” and ordering every department to find ways to ease the squeeze on households. Convening ministers a day after purging eleven of Sir Keir Starmer’s allies, he told them Labour was now “one team” and that all new policies must show how they would be paid for. The confirmed first act — scrapping VAT on domestic electricity from 1 October — set the tone.

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The televised opening of the meeting was Mr Burnham’s first set-piece as Prime Minister, staged barely eighteen hours after a ruthless reshuffle that removed Rachel Reeves, David Lammy and Darren Jones. His instruction that ministers “always show how they are going to pay” for policies was pointed, coming hours after his own flagship tax cut was attacked as unfunded. The Chancellor, John Healey, promised in his first words in the role to work “in lockstep” with the Prime Minister to “meet the fiscal rules with a buffer against uncertainty”. The test of “Burnhamism” will be whether costed retail offers survive contact with a Budget arithmetic his former colleagues are already picking apart.

Sacked Starmer Ally Brands Burnham’s Energy Cut “Unfunded”

Mr Burnham’s first major policy was overshadowed within hours when Darren Jones, dismissed from the Cabinet a day earlier, branded the VAT cut on electricity “unfunded”. Mr Jones, who ran the very digital ID scheme whose cancellation is meant to pay for it, argued that programme had no money attached in the first place, so the saving cannot bankroll cheaper bills. The intervention, widely read as revenge for the purge, exposed the new government to accusations of loose accounting on day one.

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The row cuts to the heart of Mr Burnham’s fiscal credibility. The government says removing VAT from domestic electricity will take roughly £45 off a typical annual bill and shave a tenth of a point off inflation, funded by axing digital ID. But the Office for Budget Responsibility had judged that scheme’s cost unfunded, meaning the saving rests on Whitehall reductions never specified. That a former Treasury minister chose his first hours on the backbenches to make the point suggests the coup has left a reservoir of resentment. With no Commons to answer to until September, the attack landed on social media rather than the floor of the House. Watch whether more of the sacked bloc break cover.

Recess Shields Burnham From the Commons Until September

The new Prime Minister will face no Commons scrutiny for six weeks, with Parliament in its summer recess until 1 September and his first Prime Minister’s Questions not due until then. The Conservatives, who tried and failed to delay the recess so Mr Burnham could be questioned on taking office, accused Labour of “running scared”. A government majority of more than 150 blocked the motion, leaving Tuesday’s funding row to play out online rather than on the floor of the House.

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The timing is fortuitous for a leader who seized power through an internal contest rather than a general election, and whose opening policy is already under fire. The shadow leader of the Commons, Jesse Norman, said the government “could not bear the idea of a new prime minister facing any scrutiny before September”, while Kemi Badenoch called the blocking of the Tory vote “unprecedented”. MPs had already been due to rise on 16 July, but ministers’ refusal to extend sitting hardened the impression of a Prime Minister avoiding accountability. The Speaker retains the power to recall Parliament in the public interest. Until then, Mr Burnham governs by announcement, insulated from the despatch box just as questions over his sums multiply.

Trump Signals a Manchester Visit After a “Very Good” First Call

Downing Street and the White House confirmed details of Mr Burnham’s first call as Prime Minister with Donald Trump, who called it a “very good conversation” and signalled the pair would meet before long. The two discussed North Sea oil, the military alliance and the de-mining of the Strait of Hormuz. Mr Burnham said he hoped to show the president “what Manchester has to offer” — a striking warming days after Mr Trump branded Britain a “Poverty Stricken Disaster”.

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The readout marks an early diplomatic test passed, at least on tone. Mr Trump, who had savaged the country’s energy policy, struck a conspicuously friendly note, writing that Britain’s new leader “has got a big job ahead of him… and, of course, the U.S.A. will be there to help”. North Sea licensing remains a fault line: Mrs Badenoch has urged Mr Burnham to approve the Rosebank and Jackdaw fields, while the Prime Minister insists his manifesto stance is unchanged. Mr Burnham also spoke to President Zelensky and President Macron about Ukraine, Hormuz and energy — a brisk opening lap of alliance diplomacy for a domestically focused premier. Watch whether the Manchester invitation firms into a state visit.

Burnham Sets Up “No 10 North” and Merges Whitehall Departments

Mr Burnham’s first full day brought structural change to Whitehall as well as policy. Downing Street confirmed a new Manchester base for the Prime Minister’s office — dubbed “No 10 North” — while the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology was abolished and folded back into an enlarged business department, with a new Cabinet-level artificial-intelligence minister created. The moves signal Mr Burnham’s intent to govern from beyond Westminster, even as unions warned of disruption.

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The Manchester headquarters is the clearest early symbol of what Mr Burnham means by taking “power out of Westminster and into every postcode”, reportedly operating from a secure city-centre site. The abolition of the science department returns that brief to business and installs a dedicated artificial-intelligence minister attending Cabinet — a bet that AI and industrial strategy belong together. But the churn carries a cost: the FDA union, which represents senior civil servants, warned of “political turmoil”, noting how long it takes to bring ministers up to speed. For a government promising relief households will “feel quite quickly”, the risk is that a reorganised Whitehall slows delivery. Watch how fast the new machine actually moves.
One To Read

The Shape of Burnham’s Government

The Independent · Inside Andy Burnham’s ruthless first moves as Prime Minister — the surprise choice of John Healey as Chancellor, the clear-out of eleven Starmer-era ministers, the new “No 10 North” in Manchester and the merged Whitehall departments — and what the shape of his government reveals about how he means to wield a power he won without an election.
☀

Morning Briefing

Tuesday 21 July 2026 — 08:00 BST

What It Means For You

  • A New Government Takes Shape: Andy Burnham confirmed his Cabinet on his first full day, naming John Healey as Chancellor, with Ed Miliband at the Foreign Office and Rachel Reeves out. His first act was to scrap VAT on domestic electricity from 1 October, expected to cut a typical bill by around £45 a year.
  • Petrol & Energy: Brent crude eased back towards $88 a barrel as mediators floated a ten-day truce, but a tenth night of US strikes on Iran and blocked Strait of Hormuz shipping keep prices near five-week highs. Pump and energy costs stay elevated.
  • Savings & Markets: The bond market took fright — ten-year gilt yields hit a two-month high near 5 per cent and sterling slipped — as investors waited for the new Chancellor and questioned how the giveaways will be funded. Watch this week’s inflation and borrowing data.

GEO Geopolitical

US Strikes Iran for a Tenth Night as Tehran Hits Kuwait

American forces bombed Iranian military targets for a tenth consecutive night, with explosions reported across Qeshm Island, Bandar Abbas, Sirik, Shiraz and Isfahan. Tehran retaliated before dawn on Tuesday, its army claiming surface-to-surface missiles struck US HIMARS launchers at Camp Arifjan in Kuwait, where air defences were activated. The American military death toll stands at seventeen, and the Pentagon says nearly a hundred troops have been wounded in the past fortnight.

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The tenth-night barrage marks no let-up in a campaign that has struck hundreds of Iranian military sites since June’s ceasefire unravelled, yet Tehran’s retaliatory reach appears undimmed. Iran framed the Kuwait strike as a new phase of its operation, and the Revolutionary Guard separately claimed a cruise-missile hit on data infrastructure in Bahrain, which neither Gulf state has confirmed. President Pezeshkian declared that Iran was now “engaged in a full-scale war”. With two tankers reported ablaze in Hormuz, the risk of a wider Gulf conflagration remains acute. Watch whether Kuwait or Bahrain are drawn formally into the fighting, and whether a tenth night becomes an eleventh.

Mediators Table a Ten-Day Truce as Iran Signals Openness to Talks

Mediators have handed Tehran a proposal for a ten-day ceasefire to revive last month’s collapsed interim deal, a senior Iranian official said, though Washington has played down the prospect of the President accepting it. The US Secretary of State said America remained open to a diplomatic solution if Iran halted its attacks. Iran asked Pakistan to resume its mediating role even as the strikes continued.

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The proposed pause is intended to buy time to resurrect the 14-point memorandum signed last month, which promised a 60-day ceasefire, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a roadmap to a nuclear settlement. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi struck a harder note, insisting the right time to negotiate was “precisely when you have achieved a reliable field and strategic achievement on the military front”. Pakistan and Qatar have brokered previous rounds. The gap between Tehran’s demand for control of Hormuz and Washington’s insistence on free navigation remains the central obstacle. Watch whether either side accepts the truce window before further casualties harden positions.

Oil Retreats From a Five-Week High on Ceasefire Hopes

Brent crude slipped around 0.9 per cent towards $88 a barrel on Tuesday, easing from Monday’s near-$90 close, as reports of a ten-day truce proposal offset the tenth night of strikes and fresh tanker fires in Hormuz. Prices remain near five-week highs and up roughly 20 per cent this month. The retreat came despite Yemen’s Houthis declaring a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia.

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Vessel traffic through the strait, normally a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil, has collapsed to a fraction of its usual level, and the new Houthi threat to Saudi shipping compounds the disruption. Goldman Sachs has said a $100, even $120, Brent scenario is “back in play” if flows stay choked, and US petrol has climbed back towards $4 a gallon. “The market is still quite complacent despite the price increase we have seen,” said Amrita Sen of Energy Aspects. For British households the transmission runs to petrol pumps and winter energy bills. Watch for confirmed physical-flow disruption or a Hormuz closure, either of which would trigger a fresh leg higher.

Russian Missiles Kill Ten on a Grain Ship Off Odesa

A Russian cruise-missile strike on the Golden Leo, a bulk carrier laden with corn, killed at least ten as it left Odesa — the deadliest attack yet in a widening Black Sea campaign. The dead included nine foreign crew from Syria and India and a Ukrainian port pilot. In retaliation, Ukraine launched more than 400 drones at the Moscow region overnight, striking an oil depot and wounding at least ten people.

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Ukraine’s ports authority says Russia struck 23 port facilities and 17 civilian vessels in the first fortnight of July alone, and analysts warn the campaign has cut about a third of the country’s Black Sea grain-export capacity — a threat to global food supply. Moscow’s mayor said 85 drones were downed approaching the capital, with three of the wounded said to be Chinese nationals. Both sides are now targeting each other’s maritime revenue and energy infrastructure far beyond the front line. Watch insurance and freight costs on Black Sea grain routes, which feed into world food prices.

Ukrainian Civilian Toll Hits a Wartime Record as Crimea Link Is Cut

Russia’s intensifying long-range strikes drove Ukrainian civilian casualties to their highest monthly level since April 2022, United Nations monitors reported — 293 killed and nearly 2,000 injured in June. War analysts said Ukraine’s drone campaign has now partly severed the main road link between mainland Russia and occupied Crimea, forcing Moscow to divert scarce air defences.

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The UN monitoring mission attributed almost half of June’s casualties to missile and long-range drone strikes on population centres, which have killed nearly 1,400 civilians since January. The Institute for the Study of War assessed that Ukraine’s interdiction of the Rostov–Crimea highway has partially deprived Russia of a key ground supply line, prompting rare public pushback from Kremlin officials against claims the route is secure. Ukrainian forces also struck six Russian air-defence systems in Krasnodar Krai. Neither side made confirmed ground advances. Watch for Russian efforts to reopen the Crimea land corridor.

UK UK Domestic Politics

Healey Made Chancellor as Burnham Purges Starmer’s Ministers

Andy Burnham has confirmed a sweeping Cabinet on his first full day as Prime Minister, naming John Healey — the former defence secretary who quit over military funding — as Chancellor in a surprise choice. Ed Miliband becomes Foreign Secretary, Shabana Mahmood stays as Home Secretary, Angela Rayner returns to housing and Wes Streeting takes defence. Rachel Reeves, David Lammy and nine other Starmer-era ministers are out.

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Mr Healey’s appointment over the more radical Mr Miliband is read as an attempt to calm markets, though his own demand for defence spending to reach three per cent of GDP now lands on his own Treasury desk. Mr Miliband, made Foreign Secretary, called it “the honour of my life”, recalling that his parents “came here as Jewish refugees fleeing from the Nazis”. The clear-out — eleven who sat at Sir Keir Starmer’s Cabinet table gone — signals a decisive break rather than continuity, handing Mr Burnham a Cabinet of allies but a backbench of displaced heavyweights. Watch how gracefully that bloc behaves as spending choices sharpen.

Burnham Scraps VAT on Electricity in His First Act as PM

Andy Burnham has used his first full day in office to remove VAT from domestic electricity bills from 1 October, his opening cost-of-living measure. The Chancellor, John Healey, said the cut is funded by cancelling the previous government’s digital ID programme and will lower the Ofgem price cap by around £45 a year. The move delivers on Mr Burnham’s Downing Street pledge to give households “breathing space”.

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The cut is the first in a promised series of announcements as Mr Burnham seeks early wins to justify his uncontested arrival in Downing Street; a bus-fare cap and a rise in the frozen £12,570 personal allowance are under consideration for the autumn Budget. His first instruction on entering No 10 was to end rough sleeping, backed by £340m. “I said I wanted to give people breathing space, and that’s what I’m announcing on my second day as Prime Minister,” he said. Watch whether energy suppliers pass the saving on in full, and how Mr Healey squares giveaways with jittery bond markets.

Markets Take Fright as Gilt Yields Hit a Two-Month High

Government borrowing costs jumped to their highest in two months and the pound fell after Mr Burnham said he would use “any flexibility” within the fiscal rules. The ten-year gilt yield rose to around 5 per cent, sterling slipped to $1.34 and the FTSE 100 closed lower. Rachel Reeves’s departure, and the delay in naming a Chancellor, unsettled investors who had treated her fiscal rules as an anchor.

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Analysts warned that the calm before Mr Burnham’s arrival reflected relief that a market-friendly Chancellor was eventually chosen, not confidence in the platform. Reports of up to £24bn in spending plans — including bringing Thames Water into administration and funding free social care — sharpen the credibility test, with UK borrowing costs already the highest in the G7. “Investors want to see it before believing it,” said Kathleen Brooks of XTB, citing “significant confusion” over the new government’s economic policy. Watch this week’s inflation and borrowing data, and whether gilts stabilise once the package is costed.

Trump Brands Britain “Poverty Stricken” as Burnham Courts the President

Mr Burnham’s first day was overshadowed by Donald Trump, who called Britain a “Poverty Stricken Disaster” while praising reports the new Prime Minister could ease curbs on North Sea drilling. In their first phone call, Mr Burnham invited Mr Trump to visit Manchester and stressed his commitment to defence and to Strait of Hormuz shipping security. Downing Street says he will honour Labour’s manifesto on oil and gas, pursuing “a change of emphasis” rather than new licences.

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Mr Trump’s intervention centres on the Rosebank and Jackdaw fields, where licences already exist, giving Mr Burnham room to signal support without formally breaching the no-new-licences pledge — a stance that would rebuff his own Foreign Secretary, Mr Miliband, a fierce critic of new drilling. Mr Trump said new drilling would take the United Kingdom “from a Poverty Stricken Disaster to one of the Richest Countries anywhere in the World”. The episode tests how Mr Burnham manages a volatile ally while holding a fragile climate coalition together. Watch for any formal North Sea decision and whether the Manchester invitation firms into a state visit.

Farage Demands a Snap Election as Badenoch Attacks “Airy Fairy” Plans

Opposition leaders have rounded on Mr Burnham’s unelected arrival in Downing Street. Reform’s Nigel Farage demanded an immediate general election, saying the Prime Minister has “no mandate” beyond his Makerfield by-election. The Conservative leader, Kemi Badenoch, branded his agenda “airy fairy” and, in a letter, urged him to rule out tax rises while refusing to hand him a “blank cheque”. Mr Burnham faces his first Prime Minister’s Questions on Wednesday.

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Mr Burnham is the seventh Prime Minister since 2016 and took power without a public vote, handing his rivals a potent legitimacy line. Mr Farage, fighting a Clacton by-election, is betting Reform can force an early contest; Mrs Badenoch has stopped short of demanding one, wary of the Conservatives’ polling position. “Outside of 25,000 voters in Makerfield he has literally no mandate for this at all,” Mr Farage said. The mandate question will dominate his first Commons appearance on Wednesday, where he must convert platform rhetoric into scrutinised detail. Watch whether Labour’s large majority insulates him or backbench loyalists complicate his position.
One To Read

Bold Pledges and an Upbeat Mood: Burnham’s First Day

CNN · What Andy Burnham’s first day in Downing Street revealed about the kind of Prime Minister he intends to be — the informality, the flurry of cost-of-living pledges, the sweeping Cabinet clear-out of Starmer loyalists, and the early collision with Donald Trump — as he tries to justify an arrival in No 10 that never passed through the ballot box.
☾

Evening Briefing

Monday 20 July 2026 — 17:55 BST

What It Means For You

  • A New Prime Minister: Andy Burnham is now in Downing Street, pledging help with the cost of living this week and an end to rough sleeping. Rachel Reeves has gone as Chancellor, with Shabana Mahmood tipped to replace her — the choice markets will judge first.
  • Petrol & Energy: Brent crude spiked above $90 overnight before easing back to around $88 as Iran hinted at talks. Pumps and winter bills remain exposed to the Strait of Hormuz; the average US petrol price has already touched $4 a gallon.
  • Tax & Spending: The new government inherits a £110bn debt-interest bill and a “tax lock” on income tax, VAT and national insurance. That leaves little room for giveaways without an autumn Budget, so watch the Treasury as the new Chancellor is named.

GEO Geopolitical

US Strikes Iran for a Ninth Night as Third American Dies

US Central Command struck Iran for a ninth consecutive night, hitting Revolutionary Guard air defences, missile stores and coastal surveillance sites it says threaten Hormuz shipping. The attacks followed confirmation that a third American service member had been killed since Friday — two in an Iranian missile strike on the Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan and one in northern Iraq. Seventeen US personnel have now died in the war, with more than 430 wounded.

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Central Command said the strikes were “designed to further degrade Iran’s ability to threaten commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and swiftly punish” Guard forces. President Trump insisted: “We’re never allowing Iran to have a nuclear weapon.” Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, warned that Washington had “unforgettable lessons” in store, calling Mr Trump’s signature on last month’s memorandum “utterly worthless”. The month-old ceasefire has collapsed into open, nightly exchanges. Watch whether a tenth night follows and whether Gulf states are dragged deeper in.

Iran Signals Openness to Talks Yet Suspends Its Commitments

Iran said it remained open to negotiations even as the strikes continued. The foreign ministry spokesman, Esmail Baghaei, said intermediaries had gone on exchanging messages with Tehran throughout the latest American bombardment, and that talks could be pursued on Iran’s terms. Hours earlier the deputy foreign minister, Kazem Gharibabadi, said Iran had suspended its commitments under the memorandum of understanding signed last month, deepening doubts over the fragile framework.

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The dual signalling — diplomatic channels open, formal commitments frozen — captures a conflict neither side seems able to end or win outright. The 18 June memorandum briefly reopened the Strait of Hormuz before a series of ceasefire breaches from early July unravelled it. Mr Gharibabadi said flatly: “We have also suspended our commitments; we are not implementing them.” The presence of intermediaries suggests a negotiated pause remains possible, but each night of strikes narrows the room. Watch for any third-party mediation offer from Gulf capitals or Oman.

Oil Breaks $90 Then Retreats as Iran Hints at Diplomacy

Brent crude jumped nearly 4 per cent overnight to break $90 a barrel — its highest since mid-June — before easing to around $88 as Iran’s openness to talks tempered supply fears. US West Texas Intermediate slipped to $82.24 a barrel. Yemen’s Houthis declared an immediate maritime embargo on Saudi Arabia, while the average American petrol price touched $4 a gallon.

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The Strait of Hormuz normally carries about a fifth of the world’s oil; flows collapsed from roughly 20 million barrels a day before the war to 2.7 million in the spring, according to the International Energy Agency. The agency warns the renewed escalation “could upend the forecast that sees the market flipping to a surplus next year”. For British households the danger is direct: petrol pumps and winter energy bills track Brent closely. Watch whether the diplomatic hint holds or a tenth night of strikes reverses Monday’s retreat.

Russian Strike on Grain Ship Near Odesa Kills Ten

At least ten people were killed when a Russian strike hit a cargo vessel near the Ukrainian port of Odesa. The Guinea-Bissau-flagged ship, carrying corn and crewed by Indian and Syrian nationals, was struck as Russia said it had targeted fuel reservoirs at the port; eight crew were rescued. The attack pushed July’s death toll in the Odesa region to twenty-eight.

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The strike underscores Russia’s intensifying campaign against Ukraine’s Black Sea grain-export corridor, a lifeline for both the economy and global food supplies. President Zelenskyy said Ukraine was “responding, justly, to every Russian strike against our cities and communities”. Kyiv also reported striking seven Russian vessels in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov, bringing July’s naval tally to 183. The targeting of neutral-flagged merchant shipping raises fresh questions over the security of the export route. Watch for diplomatic protests from India and other crew-supplying states.

Ukraine Launches 400 Drones at Moscow, Hitting an Oil Depot

Ukraine sent more than 400 drones against the Moscow region overnight, striking logistics sites and an oil depot over 400km inside Russia. The mayor, Sergei Sobyanin, said most were shot down, including 85 near the capital, but at least ten people were wounded, among them a child and three Chinese citizens. It was one of the largest drone assaults on the capital of the war.

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The deep strike reflects Ukraine’s strategy of taking the war to Russian soil, throttling fuel supply and export revenue while Kyiv contends with a shortage of Patriot interceptor munitions. Mr Sobyanin said more than 400 “enemy drones” were launched between 8.30pm and 5am. The oil-depot fire adds to a mounting toll on Russian refining capacity from repeated Ukrainian raids. Analysts note Moscow has been forced to divert scarce air defence to protect the capital. Watch whether Russia retaliates with another mass ballistic barrage on Kyiv.

UK UK Domestic Politics

Burnham Becomes PM, Vowing a ‘Circuit-Breaker for Britain’

Andy Burnham became the United Kingdom’s seventh prime minister in a decade on Monday, after King Charles III asked him to form a government following Sir Keir Starmer’s resignation. In his first speech outside Downing Street, Mr Burnham promised to end political instability and pledged help with the cost of living this week, with an end to rough sleeping as an immediate priority. He had been Labour leader for barely three days.

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“Britain needs to show the world that we can regain our stability once again,” Mr Burnham said, promising to make the moment “a circuit-breaker for Britain, bringing forward the biggest changes in the last 40 years”. He conceded: “We have not been good enough and we need to be better.” Sir Keir, who called the premiership “the privilege of my life”, pledged his successor his “full support”. Mr Burnham inherits a party trailing Reform UK with a general election due by 2029. Watch for the promised cost-of-living package and a ten-year plan later this year.

Reeves and Lammy Out as Burnham Reshapes the Cabinet

Mr Burnham moved swiftly to remake the government, with Rachel Reeves resigning as Chancellor and David Lammy departing as Deputy Prime Minister. The business secretary, Peter Kyle, was sacked, while the housing secretary, Steve Reed, and the science secretary, Liz Kendall, also left. The home secretary, Shabana Mahmood, was reported the frontrunner to become Chancellor, with Ed Miliband, John Healey and Louise Haigh seen entering No 10.

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The reshuffle is the clearest early signal of Mr Burnham’s intent, both to his party and to the bond markets watching who takes the Treasury. Installing Ms Mahmood, seen as being on Labour’s right, would be read as a bid to reassure investors after a turbulent handover. Mr Lammy called it “the greatest privilege of my life” to have served in Sir Keir’s government. The scale of the clear-out — five senior figures gone — underlines the break Mr Burnham wants from the Starmer era. Watch whether the Chancellor is confirmed before markets open on Tuesday.

New PM Inherits £110bn Debt Bill and a Stalled Economy

Mr Burnham takes office facing acute fiscal constraints. The government spent £110bn on debt interest in 2025-26 — about 8 per cent of all public spending — while taxes are forecast to reach their highest share of the economy since the Second World War by the end of the decade. Borrowing has run higher than planned this year, and the economy he inherits has barely grown in two decades.

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Anand Menon, director of UK in a Changing Europe, said Mr Burnham had “relatively little fiscal room for manoeuvre”, with new spending needing to be funded through taxation rather than borrowing. The new Prime Minister has bound himself to Labour’s manifesto “tax lock” on income tax, VAT and national insurance, narrowing his options further. On living standards, Mr Menon warned that “people don’t just want to listen to what you’re saying, they want to see changes for the better”. Watch whether costly cost-of-living pledges survive contact with the Treasury or slip to an autumn Budget.

Trump Hails North Sea Plan, Calls Britain ‘Poverty Stricken’

President Trump welcomed Mr Burnham’s plan to fast-track North Sea oil and gas exploration, writing on Truth Social that the move would take the United Kingdom from a “Poverty Stricken Disaster, to one of the Richest Countries anywhere in the World”. The new Prime Minister is expected to permit new drilling in already-licensed fields, a notable break from his predecessor’s energy stance. Mr Trump had last month called Mr Burnham “extremely liberal”.

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The intervention is an early test of the transatlantic relationship for a Prime Minister Mr Trump had openly disparaged. Mr Burnham’s willingness to expand North Sea output marks a pointed shift from Labour’s previous emphasis on halting new licences, and comes as Brent crude trades above $88 amid the Iran war. The move risks friction with the party’s environmental wing even as it courts energy-security arguments and Washington’s approval. On Ukraine, Mr Burnham vowed to stand with President Zelenskyy “100 percent”. Watch how he balances the drilling push against net-zero commitments.

Reform Leads or Levels With Labour as Burnham Takes Over

Mr Burnham inherits a party under pressure from Reform UK. A YouGov poll for The Times and Sky News on 12-13 July put Reform on 24 per cent, five points clear of the Conservatives and Labour on 19 apiece. A separate Survation survey found Labour and Reform tied on 24 per cent each — Labour’s largest single upward movement since the 2024 general election.

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Survation’s named-leader test found Labour under Mr Burnham level with Reform under Nigel Farage on 24 per cent each, suggesting the new leader may already be lifting his party’s standing after more than a year of Reform dominance. The pollster noted Labour was “up five points” on its mid-June reading while Reform slipped three. Professor Menon has pointed to research showing almost 70 per cent of voters are “willing to do whatever it takes” to stop Reform being elected. Watch whether the Burnham bounce holds once his Cabinet and Budget choices land.
One To Read

Andy Burnham’s In-Tray: The Economy That Will Define His Premiership

Al Jazeera · A clear-eyed audit of the challenges facing Britain’s new Prime Minister: a £110bn debt-interest bill, a tax burden heading for its highest since the Second World War, an economy that has barely grown in two decades, and a resurgent Reform UK. Why the room for manoeuvre is narrower than the rhetoric of a “circuit-breaker” suggests.
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Morning Briefing

Monday 20 July 2026 — 08:00 BST

What It Means For You

  • A New Prime Minister Today: Andy Burnham enters Downing Street today. He is expected to name his Cabinet, with Shabana Mahmood tipped as Chancellor, scrap the digital ID scheme and promise cost-of-living help. Expect a change of economic direction, though he has bound himself to the manifesto “tax lock” on income tax, VAT and national insurance.
  • Petrol & Energy: Brent crude has topped $90 a barrel — its highest since mid-June — after a ninth night of US strikes on Iran and a seizing-up of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Petrol pumps and winter energy bills are directly exposed, and a further squeeze on the strait would push both higher.
  • Savings & Markets: Markets have read the handover as orderly — sterling is steady near $1.35 and ten-year gilt yields eased to 4.94 per cent — but the oil spike is now the main inflation risk. Watch the pound and gilts as the new Chancellor is named.

GEO Geopolitical

America Bombs Iran for a Ninth Night as Tabriz Is Hit

US forces completed a ninth consecutive night of strikes on Iran, with explosions reported from the Gulf ports of Sirik and Jask to Chabahar and, for the first time in the campaign, the north-western city of Tabriz. Central Command said it had targeted command centres, air defences and missile and drone launch sites. Iranian authorities reported at least 50 people killed and more than 500 wounded, and the American military death toll has now reached seventeen.

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The month-old ceasefire is now openly dead, with Washington recasting the campaign from retaliation to systematically preventing Tehran from rebuilding the infrastructure it uses to threaten Hormuz shipping. Tabriz, home to missile and space facilities, was struck because it is believed to have launched the missiles that killed American troops in Jordan. President Trump said the United States had “hit them very hard again tonight”, doing so “in honour of” the servicemen killed. With the death toll at a level long treated as a red line, some analysts warn a ground operation may be nearing. Watch whether a tenth night follows and whether the strikes push further north.

Iran Strikes Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan in Gulf-Wide Retaliation

Tehran launched a fresh wave of missiles and drones at American allies across the Gulf overnight, sounding air-raid sirens in Bahrain’s capital and striking Kuwait for a second straight day. The Revolutionary Guard said it had fired ballistic missiles at US aircraft at Jordan’s Aqaba airport, claiming “heavy damage”, and had hit the Ali al-Salem airbase in Kuwait. Jordan said its air defences downed several missiles without casualties.

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Iran’s stated doctrine is to strike back at American regional assets for as long as US attacks continue, dragging Gulf monarchies into a war they have laboured to avoid. Kuwait has now had a power and desalination plant hit twice; Bahrain hosts the US Fifth Fleet; and the repeated targeting of Jordan, which borders Israel and relies on American air defences, carries the sharpest escalation risk. The Guard declared the strait “unsafe for the transport of… a single drop of oil and gas”. Watch whether any Gulf state closes its airspace or invokes collective defence, and whether Iranian missiles reach Saudi or Emirati territory.

Brent Tops $90 as Tankers Burn and Hormuz Shipping Seizes Up

Oil surged above $90 a barrel on Monday, its highest since mid-June, after the ninth night of strikes and a third American death revived fears over the Strait of Hormuz. Brent rose more than 2.5 per cent to around $90.50, capping a near-16 per cent weekly gain. Only four vessels transited the strait on Sunday, down from eight, and Britain’s maritime authority reported a vessel on fire off the coast of Oman.

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The chokepoint normally carries about a fifth of the world’s oil, and traffic has fallen to a three-week low as Iran attacks tankers using routes it has not sanctioned and Washington blockades Iranian ports. The Revolutionary Guard said two tankers had “exploded” overnight after being coerced into an “unsafe” corridor. Britain and France are running a naval reassurance mission from Oman to protect commercial shipping. For British households the transmission runs straight to petrol pumps and winter energy bills. Analysts at Quantum Strategy have flagged a target of $95 to $105 a barrel if exports keep dwindling. Watch whether OPEC signals any spare-capacity response.

Russia Unleashes One of the War’s Largest Barrages on Kyiv

Russia fired one of its heaviest ballistic salvoes of the war overnight, launching around 40 missiles — including ten Zircon anti-ship weapons — and 125 drones, mostly at Kyiv. President Zelensky said it was among the largest strike packages against the capital region since 2022, killing at least one civilian and wounding sixteen. A postal sorting terminal in Kharkiv was also hit, killing three.

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The barrage exploits a global shortage of Patriot interceptors, with Russia deliberately shifting towards ballistic missiles, which are harder to stop than drones, and stockpiling for days beforehand. War analysts say Moscow has now launched more ballistic missiles this month than it produces, dipping into reserves at an unsustainable pace while cutting drone volumes. Mr Zelensky said Russia had been “stockpiling missiles for the past several days” in preparation for the strike. Watch whether Western capitals accelerate interceptor deliveries and how long Russia can sustain this ballistic tempo before its stockpile runs dry.

Ukrainian Drones Cripple Russia’s Black Sea Fuel Lifeline

Ukraine pressed a sweeping long-range campaign against Russian energy and naval targets, striking three oil depots in Stavropol Krai some 600km inside Russia and setting off large fires. Ukrainian commanders said their forces had hit 176 Russian vessels in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov since 6 July and destroyed five ferries handling around 80 per cent of military transport to occupied Crimea, cutting the Kerch crossing’s capacity by three-quarters.

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The campaign aims to isolate Crimea by severing the sea, rail and ferry routes that sustain Russian forces there, while deep strikes on refineries and depots throttle fuel supply and export revenue. A drone strike also halted oil loading at the Novorossiysk terminal, and Ukraine hit a shadow-fleet tanker used to evade sanctions. Combined with strikes on Russian refineries, the effort is tightening global diesel markets even as Middle East crude spikes. The unmanned-forces commander, Major Robert Brovdi, reported the tally of vessels struck. Watch whether Russia diverts scarce air defence south, and the effect on refined-product prices into winter.

UK UK Domestic Politics

Burnham to Enter Downing Street as Britain’s Seventh PM in a Decade

Andy Burnham is due to become Prime Minister today after Sir Keir Starmer tenders his resignation to King Charles III. Sir Keir is expected to give a farewell address outside Downing Street this morning before travelling to Buckingham Palace; Mr Burnham will then be invited to form a government and deliver his own first speech around midday. The former Greater Manchester mayor, an MP again for barely a month, was elected Labour leader unopposed on Friday.

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Mr Burnham’s ascent caps a whirlwind ten weeks, triggered by Labour’s dire May elections and his own by-election win in Makerfield, which prompted Sir Keir to announce his resignation on 22 June. He was nominated by 379 Labour MPs in what became a one-candidate contest. The sequence today follows constitutional custom: the outgoing premier resigns first, then Mr Burnham attends the palace and becomes Prime Minister the moment he accepts the King’s invitation. In his farewell, Sir Keir said that “every prime minister knows… the day will come when they have to pass it on”. Watch the timing of the palace audiences and whether both speeches pass without interruption.

Mahmood Tipped for Chancellor as Burnham Keeps the Cabinet Guessing

Mr Burnham is expected to begin naming his Cabinet only after entering Downing Street, and no appointment has been confirmed. The Home Secretary, Shabana Mahmood, is the reported frontrunner for Chancellor — a choice framed as reassuring to markets and a setback for the energy secretary, Ed Miliband, who is tipped instead for the Foreign Office. Rachel Reeves is expected to be replaced, with comebacks anticipated for Wes Streeting and Angela Rayner.

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The battle for No 11 is the day’s defining sub-plot: whoever Mr Burnham installs next door signals his intent to his party and to the bond markets alike. Senior Labour figures expect Ms Mahmood, seen as being on the party’s right, to move to the Treasury amid fears that Mr Miliband would become a lightning rod for criticism. The deputy leader, Lucy Powell, is tipped for a senior role. Every post remains speculative until Mr Burnham is Prime Minister. Watch whether he hands a woman a Great Office of State again, and how sterling and gilts read his choice as London trades.

Burnham to Axe Starmer’s Digital ID Scheme on Day One

In his first confirmed break from Sir Keir’s programme, Mr Burnham has said he will scrap plans for a government-issued digital ID for all British adults, redirecting the money — reported at around £2bn — to cost-of-living help. His office says one of the new government’s first acts will be to put its focus “where people need it right now”. Conservatives accused him of claiming credit for a retreat already forced by their pressure.

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The digital ID plan was a Starmer flagship, first pitched as a mandatory tool against illegal working before nearly three million people signed a petition against it, forcing a voluntary relaunch. Mr Burnham’s team casts the reversal as a “reset of priorities”, with the funds diverted to household relief. The shadow technology secretary, Julia Lopez, said mandatory ID was “already apparently off the table” and asked whether Mr Burnham was “simply claiming credit for a decision that had already been taken”. Watch whether the scrapping is formally confirmed once he is in office and how quickly the promised cost-of-living package follows.

New PM to Promise “Breathing Space” With Energy Bills in His Sights

Mr Burnham is expected to use his first speech to pledge “breathing space” on the cost of living. A package is anticipated among his first acts, with his team examining a radical energy-bills overhaul, drawn up by the thinktank Nesta, that could cut a typical household’s bill by about £130 a year and make running a heat pump cheaper than a gas boiler. Nothing has been announced or delivered as of this morning.

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The Nesta plan would shift some policy levies off electricity bills into general taxation and reform gas standing charges, at a cost of around £3.2bn a year. Mr Burnham has committed to Labour’s manifesto “tax lock” — no rises to income tax, VAT or national insurance — and to his predecessor’s fiscal rules, which constrains how he funds any giveaway and leaves an autumn Budget in play. He has said there is “some room… for movement on tax” within the manifesto. Watch whether costly measures survive contact with the Treasury or slip to the Budget.

Farage Demands an Immediate Election as Burnham “Has No Mandate”

Mr Burnham takes office facing loud calls for a general election. Reform UK’s Nigel Farage says the incoming Prime Minister has “absolutely no mandate of any kind at all” and that voters, not Labour MPs, should decide who governs. The Conservative leader, Kemi Badenoch, has stopped short of demanding an election but dismissed Mr Burnham’s programme as “airy fairy” and cast him as a “people pleaser” unwilling to take tough decisions.

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Mr Burnham arrives as the seventh Prime Minister in a decade without a national vote, a democratic-legitimacy line his opponents will press relentlessly. Mr Farage — himself fighting a Clacton by-election after quitting as an MP — calls him “the great chameleon of British politics” and warns of tax rises to come. Mrs Badenoch has offered conditional co-operation on curbing the welfare bill while pressing him to rule out further tax rises. Watch whether Mr Burnham addresses the mandate question in his first speech, and whether he signals an early election or rules one out.
One To Read

The Mayor Who Became Prime Minister

NPR · How Andy Burnham travelled from Greater Manchester mayor to the steps of Downing Street in barely ten weeks — the party revolt that toppled Sir Keir Starmer, the by-election that returned him to Parliament, and the “unashamedly Labour” agenda of devolution, public ownership and cost-of-living relief he carries into No 10 without having faced the country.
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Evening Briefing

Sunday 19 July 2026 — 17:55 BST

What It Means For You

  • Energy Bills: The price cap rose 13 per cent on 1 July, from £1,641 to £1,862 a year for a typical direct-debit household — gas up 24 per cent, electricity up 5 per cent, driven by the Middle East conflict. Roughly 40 per cent of accounts on fixed-term deals are shielded for now; around two million households are already in debt to their supplier, with average arrears up from £1,848 to £2,270 in two years.
  • A New Government Tomorrow: Andy Burnham takes office on Monday and will name his Cabinet the same day, with Shabana Mahmood reported to be heading to the Treasury ahead of Ed Miliband. He inherits Labour’s pledge not to raise the main tax rates but has declined to rule out a wealth tax, so autumn fiscal choices are genuinely open.
  • Travel & Fuel: The American embassy in Amman urged citizens to avoid Aqaba’s airport and seaport and all Jordanian military sites after an Iranian missile was intercepted over the Red Sea resort; Jordan insists both are operating normally. Brent finished Friday at $88.10, up more than 14 per cent on the week, which will keep forecourt prices firm.

GEO Geopolitical

Washington and Amman Publicly Contradict Each Other Over Aqaba

The American embassy in Amman issued a security alert saying Jordan was “evacuating the King Hussein International Airport and seaport in the Red Sea resort town of Aqaba due to a specific and credible threat”, advising citizens to avoid both sites and all Jordanian military installations. Within hours the Jordanian government flatly denied it. The dispute came a day after Washington confirmed two American personnel had been killed in Jordan, with a third missing.

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The government spokesman, Dr Mohammad Al-Momani, told Reuters in a written statement that “no potential threats have been recorded by the relevant Jordanian authorities in the past few hours” and that “the airport and port are operating normally”; the director general of the Aqaba Company for Ports separately confirmed no evacuation had taken place. Such an open split between an American mission and a close Arab security partner is rare, and points to Amman’s acute discomfort at being seen as a co-belligerent while Iranian missiles cross its airspace. Aqaba sits directly alongside the Israeli resort of Eilat, giving Tehran a target that is deniable as anti-Israeli. Watch whether the embassy withdraws or restates the alert.

Jordanian and Israeli Forces Intercept Iranian Missiles Over Aqaba

Israeli and Jordanian forces intercepted Iranian missiles aimed at Aqaba on Sunday afternoon, the Jordanian military reporting three shot down and a fourth falling in a deserted area. The Israeli military had identified launches from Iran towards the port some forty minutes earlier and warned of possible spillover into Israeli territory. Aqaba lies immediately adjacent to Eilat, and no casualties were reported.

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Jordan has now intercepted Iranian ordnance over its own territory repeatedly since the war began, a role that is militarily necessary and politically corrosive for a monarchy governing a population deeply hostile to the campaign. Firing at Aqaba also gives Iran a way to threaten Israel’s only Red Sea outlet without launching directly at Israeli cities. Iran’s military has framed such strikes as retaliation for the eighth consecutive night of American raids on its coastal and air-defence infrastructure. Watch whether Amman continues to publicise its interceptions, and whether Iranian fire towards Aqaba becomes a regular feature rather than an isolated salvo.

Senior Senate Democrat Calls the Iran Conflict “A War of Choice”

Senator Mark Warner, the ranking Democrat on the Senate Intelligence Committee, said on CBS’s Face the Nation that American bases in the Middle East had been “on and off under attack” throughout the five months of the conflict and that it remained a war of choice, with no imminent Iranian threat when it began in February. His remarks followed the deaths of two American service members at a Jordanian base at the weekend.

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“It’s remarkable in many ways that we’ve not had more casualties,” Mr Warner said — a pointed observation given that more than 50,000 American troops remain deployed across the region and the military death toll has now reached sixteen. Congressional criticism has been muted for much of the campaign, but rising fatalities and the collapse of June’s memorandum of understanding are eroding that restraint, particularly among intelligence committee members who dispute the original threat assessment. The administration’s stated aim has narrowed to degrading Iran’s ability to close the Strait of Hormuz. Watch for renewed war-powers manoeuvres on Capitol Hill if American losses continue to climb.

Rubio Hosts Lebanon’s President Before a Rare White House Visit

The Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, met President Joseph Aoun of Lebanon in Washington on Sunday ahead of talks with President Trump on Tuesday — the first visit by a Lebanese head of state since Michel Sleiman met Barack Obama in 2009. The State Department said Mr Rubio had commended Beirut’s effort to reclaim Lebanese sovereignty and disarm Hezbollah.

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The department’s statement praised “the courage of the Government of Lebanon, under President Aoun’s leadership, for their determined effort to reclaim Lebanon’s sovereignty, disarm Hezbollah and dismantle its terrorist infrastructure, and move towards peace”. That Washington is investing in Beirut at the height of a war with Hezbollah’s principal sponsor is the point: an Iran stretched across the Gulf, Jordan and the Hormuz theatre has less capacity to underwrite its Lebanese proxy. The risk is that a disarmament process moving faster than the Lebanese army can absorb reopens the internal fractures of 2008. Watch what Mr Aoun secures on Tuesday in reconstruction funding and security guarantees.

Zelensky Faces Stalemate Over the Sacking of His Defence Minister

The dismissal of Ukraine’s defence minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, an architect of the country’s drone programme, has hardened into a political crisis. More than a thousand people rallied in central Kyiv waving Ukrainian and European flags and chanting “bring Fedorov back”; a deputy commander of the air force and two of Mr Fedorov’s advisers resigned in protest, and parliament is reported to be reluctant to confirm a successor.

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Volodymyr Fesenko of the Kyiv-based Penta think tank said the rallies, resignations and parliamentary resistance amounted to “a stalemate situation”. Mr Zelensky has acknowledged that Mr Fedorov and the commander-in-chief, Oleksandr Syrsky, could not work together without his mediation — a candid admission that the reshuffle resolved a command dispute at the cost of removing the government’s most popular technocrat. The Institute for the Study of War assessed that Russian claims of sweeping advances in Donetsk on 18 July were uncorroborated, and that Russian forces in fact lost ground through the first half of July. Watch whether the Rada installs a minister or the vacancy persists into August.

UK UK Domestic Politics

Burnham to Name His Cabinet on Monday, With Mahmood Tipped for No 11

Andy Burnham will appoint his Cabinet on Monday, hours after accepting the King’s invitation to form a government. Shabana Mahmood, the Home Secretary, is reported to be his choice as Chancellor, with Ed Miliband — the early favourite and a key ally — expected to move to the Foreign Office instead. Nothing is confirmed until the appointments are announced.

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“I am finalising those decisions, and I will come to conclusions very shortly, and then I will announce those on Monday,” Mr Burnham said. The Financial Times reported the Mahmood appointment citing three people briefed on it, one describing it as “nailed down”. Handing the Treasury to a figure on Labour’s right, with no economics brief anywhere on her ministerial record, would be read in the City as a deliberate reassurance and by the party’s left as a slight to Mr Miliband. It also removes the author of the immigration reforms from the Home Office. Watch whether the fiscal rules survive the first fortnight intact.

Burnham Inherits a Slowing Economy and a Strained Washington Relationship

The incoming Prime Minister takes office facing an economy squeezed by the fallout from the Iran conflict, strained public finances and mounting pressure on public services, with growth widely expected to slow sharply this year as inflation rises. He is bound by Labour’s commitment not to raise its main tax rates, though he has refused to rule out a wealth tax.

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The most unpredictable inheritance is diplomatic. Sir Keir Starmer built an initially productive relationship with President Trump before ties deteriorated over Britain’s position on Iran and its defence spending, and Mr Burnham assumes that relationship at its most strained point. Domestically he has promised to “expend quite a lot of political capital” on social care, an area he has owned since drafting the 2010 National Care Service white paper and where councils face a reported £7bn shortfall. The arithmetic of a wealth tax, a care settlement and an unchanged income-tax pledge is the defining tension of his first year. Watch the autumn fiscal event.

Energy Bills Up 13 Per Cent Define the New Government’s In-Tray

The cost-of-living package Mr Burnham has promised meets an energy market already 13 per cent more expensive: the price cap rose on 1 July from £1,641 to £1,862 a year for a typical direct-debit household, the highest since early 2024. Gas bills rose 24 per cent and electricity 5 per cent, driven by wholesale gas costs after Iran moved against the Strait of Hormuz.

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Around 40 per cent of British energy accounts sit on fixed-term contracts and are insulated from the July increase, which means the pain arrives in instalments as those deals expire rather than all at once. Roughly two million households are already in arrears to their supplier, with average energy debt rising from £1,848 in 2023-24 to £2,270 in 2025-26. Consumption has fallen — about 7 per cent less electricity and 17 per cent less gas than at the previous review — which flatters the headline figure without easing the bills. Prices nonetheless remain below the peak of the 2022 crisis. Watch the October cap announcement.

Labour Narrows the Gap on Reform as the Burnham Bounce Registers

Labour has recovered ground in the polls during the leadership contest while Reform UK has slipped. YouGov, publishing on 13 July, put Reform on 24 per cent with the Conservatives and Labour tied on 19; Opinium, three days earlier, had Reform on 24 and Labour on 19, a one-point gain for Labour and a one-point drop for Reform. Both leave Reform in front.

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A five-point deficit is a considerable improvement on Labour’s position through the spring, and the party briefly overtook Reform in a national poll at the end of June for the first time since 2025. The caution is that both figures predate Mr Burnham’s actual election as leader on Friday, so the genuine bounce — if there is one — has yet to be measured. The Greens, on 14 to 16 per cent, remain the structural threat to Labour’s left flank in a five-party field where 24 per cent is enough to lead. Watch the first full post-handover polls late this week.

Channel Crossings Fall 41 Per Cent as the Asylum Bill Divides Labour

Some 11,884 people crossed the Channel in small boats between January and June, a 41 per cent fall on the 19,982 recorded over the same period in 2025, figures cited in the Commons show. Ministers also told MPs that arrests of people smugglers were up 55 per cent and that 46,000 attempted crossings had been stopped in partnership with French law enforcement.

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The improvement has not settled the politics. Almost eighty Labour backbenchers signed a private letter urging Mr Burnham to unwind Shabana Mahmood’s asylum reforms before the Immigration and Asylum Bill returned to the Commons; he voted for it at second reading regardless. Nor is the trend uniform — a single boat crossed on Friday carrying 128 people, the largest number yet recorded on one vessel, beating the 125 set in September 2025, evidence that smugglers are consolidating into fewer, more dangerous crossings. Promoting Ms Mahmood to the Treasury would hand her successor the task of defending her policy. Watch the bill’s remaining stages.
One To Read

How the World Replaced the Oil That Stopped Moving Through Hormuz

International Energy Agency · The IEA’s analysts set out, with unusual clarity, how flows through the Strait of Hormuz collapsed from around 20 million barrels a day before the conflict to an average of 2.7 million through the spring, and how the largest emergency stock release ever attempted — 400 million barrels — kept the world supplied. Essential background to every petrol price and energy bill in Britain this summer.
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Morning Briefing

Sunday 19 July 2026 — 14:37 BST

What It Means For You

  • Petrol & Energy: American forces struck Iran for an eighth consecutive night and Brent crude is holding near a one-month high of $88, up about 14 per cent on the week. Markets are shut for the weekend, but forecourt and energy-bill pressure will persist, and a confirmed move against a second shipping chokepoint would push prices higher still.
  • A New Prime Minister Tomorrow: Andy Burnham enters Downing Street on Monday and has confirmed he will scrap the roughly £2bn digital ID scheme, redirecting the money to the cost of living. His deputy says he will be “bolder” while keeping the manifesto, with a cost-of-living package and the full Cabinet expected on Monday. Expect a clear change of direction.
  • Savings & Markets: The war-risk premium in oil persists, the ten-year gilt yield sits near 4.97 per cent, and Friday brought a safe-haven bid into gold and bonds. A prolonged oil shock is the main threat to the inflation the incoming government has promised to bring down.

GEO Geopolitical

US Bombs Iran for an Eighth Night to “Punish” the Revolutionary Guard

American forces struck Iran for an eighth consecutive night into Sunday, hitting coastal surveillance, air-defence and missile-storage sites at Sirik, Qeshm Island, Bandar Abbas and near Shadegan. Central Command said the raids were designed to degrade Iran’s ability to threaten Hormuz shipping and to “swiftly punish” the Revolutionary Guard units behind Friday’s deadly attack on a US base in Jordan. Iranian media reported that a desalination plant was destroyed, cutting water to some 10,000 people.

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Correspondents in Tehran say the campaign is systematically isolating Iran’s oil-rich south from the rest of the country, with bridges, railways and airports destroyed and hospitals evacuated. Washington frames the targets as military logistics; Tehran and rights observers say civilian infrastructure is bearing the brunt. The commander of Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya headquarters, Major-General Ali Abdullahi, warned that “any aggression or barbarism will be met with a decisive and devastating response”, calling the United States “the Great Satan”. With more than 50,000 American troops across the region and Iran vowing to hold the strait, the nightly rhythm shows no sign of breaking. Watch for a possible ninth night and whether Iran executes its threatened “full-scale” response.

American Death Toll in the Iran War Climbs to Sixteen

The American military death toll in the conflict rose to sixteen on Sunday after a Navy pilot missing earlier in the month was declared dead, the second increase this week following the two soldiers killed in Jordan. President Trump, mourning the fallen, called the deaths “a very sad thing” and repeated that Washington would never allow Iran a nuclear weapon. Iran’s health ministry says at least 50 people have been killed and more than 500 wounded over three weeks.

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The mounting American losses sharpen the domestic stakes for a president who declared June’s peace deal “over” and has since presided over a rapid slide back to war. Each fatality raises pressure for a decisive blow against Iran while risking the wider regional conflagration that Gulf capitals dread. Iran’s supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, said in a written statement that American breaches showed “the signature of the US president is utterly worthless and devoid of credibility”. Watch how Washington’s rhetoric on Iran’s nuclear programme hardens, and whether the serviceman still missing in Jordan is found.

Iran Hits a Kuwait Plant Again as Bahrain Sirens Wail

Iran pressed its Gulf retaliation on Sunday, launching a large drone attack on two US facilities in Kuwait and striking again the Kuwaiti power-and-water plant hit the previous day, restarting a fire. Bahrain sounded air-raid sirens for a sixth time in hours. The Revolutionary Guard said it had downed a US MQ-9 drone over Ahvaz and warned that vessels defying its Hormuz rules would “certainly face accidents”.

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The repeated hits on Kuwaiti water and power plants are turning civilian utilities into front lines and stoking fears of a humanitarian crisis across the Gulf’s desalination-dependent states. The Guard’s blunt warning to shipping — after claiming two vessels had “ignored” its warnings and suffered “an accident” — signals that Tehran intends to enforce its declared closure of the strait by force. Kuwait said its air defences were “confronting hostile missile and drone attacks”. Watch for any vessel actually struck, which would spike oil prices further, and whether the Gulf states are drawn directly into the war.

Russia Fires a Record Ballistic Barrage at Kyiv, Killing One

Russia launched its largest number of ballistic missiles against Kyiv since the start of the war early on Sunday — 41 missiles, including 25 ballistic, alongside 125 drones nationwide. One person was killed and at least sixteen wounded across six districts of the capital. Ukraine said it downed eighteen missiles and 108 drones, suggesting its depleted interceptor stocks have been partly replenished.

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The barrage lands amid Ukraine’s worst political turbulence in months, after President Zelensky sacked the defence minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, in a move critics call the gravest error of his presidency. Kyiv’s ability to intercept more than seventeen ballistic missiles hints at replenished defences, but Russia has now mounted ballistic attacks on the capital at least seven times in July, exploiting a chronic interceptor shortage. The Foreign Minister, Andrii Sybiha, called it “a brutal terrorist attack” and demanded “devastating pressure on Moscow”. For British readers it is the sharpest reminder that Europe’s other war has not paused. Watch whether promised Patriot production for Ukraine materialises.

Dozens Missing as a Guyana Ferry Capsizes With 116 Aboard

A passenger ferry, the MV Barima, capsized off Guyana’s coast while sailing from the capital, Georgetown, to Port Kaituma, carrying 116 passengers and crew. It issued a distress call late on Saturday. Prime Minister Mark Phillips said 53 people had been rescued by Sunday, with authorities hoping to find more in daylight. The cause is not yet clear.

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The vessel carried around 250 life jackets and eight lifeboats, and a medical team was dispatched, but with fewer than half the passengers accounted for by mid-morning the toll could climb sharply. The disaster strikes a small South American nation in the throes of an oil-driven economic boom and simmering border tensions with Venezuela. The public works minister, Juan Edghill, said an “active search and rescue operation” was under way and that authorities were praying “for the safety of all”. Watch for a confirmed casualty count and early findings on why the ferry went down.

UK UK Domestic Politics

Burnham to Scrap Starmer’s £2bn Digital ID Scheme

Andy Burnham will axe Sir Keir Starmer’s flagship digital identity programme when he takes office on Monday, redirecting the money — put at around £2bn — to the cost of living in what his team calls a “reset of priorities”. It is the first major policy break from his predecessor that Mr Burnham has confirmed before entering Downing Street. The scheme, announced last year for right-to-work checks, drew a petition of roughly three million signatures.

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Digital ID was Sir Keir’s answer to illegal working but was watered down to a voluntary scheme after a backbench and public revolt. Scrapping it lets Mr Burnham signal distance from his predecessor cheaply and popularly, while framing his premiership around everyday priorities. A spokesman said “all the time and resource that was going to be spent on a national ID scheme will go instead to where it’s most needed, such as helping with the cost of living”. Allies say he will also unwind limits on jury-trial rights. Watch Monday’s Downing Street speech for whether the “reset” comes with specific reinvestment figures, or reads as symbolism.

Burnham Will Be Bolder but Keep the Manifesto, Says His Deputy

Labour’s deputy leader, Lucy Powell, said Andy Burnham would stand by the 2024 manifesto while being “bolder and more ambitious”, using the change of leader to “clear the decks” and focus on the cost of living. Speaking on the BBC’s Sunday programme, she defended scrapping digital ID as “reprioritising” and backed greater public ownership, arguing the economy had been “overly privatised”.

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Ms Powell’s message is aimed at reassuring both the markets and Labour’s factions that “change” does not mean tearing up the platform Labour won on. Her public-ownership language — that utilities are “run in the interests of private interest, not for the consumers” — previews Mr Burnham’s water and energy agenda, while the former minister Jacob Rees-Mogg countered on the same programme that water needs “private capital… or taxpayers’ money”. Opposition parties are pressing Mr Burnham to call an election for a mandate. Watch whether Monday’s speech matches the “bolder” billing with concrete measures.

Badenoch Dismisses Burnham’s Plans as “Airy-Fairy Stuff”

The Conservative leader, Kemi Badenoch, used the BBC’s Sunday programme to attack Andy Burnham as a “people pleaser” unwilling to take tough decisions, dismissing his weekend pronouncements as “airy-fairy stuff”. She refused to give the incoming Prime Minister “a blank cheque” and rejected his call for less political point-scoring, vowing to score “as many points as possible” in the national interest.

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Mrs Badenoch’s combative framing sets the Opposition’s line for Mr Burnham’s first week: that he offers mood music without hard choices on spending, tax and immigration. It also underlines her own positioning, with Survation finding her the only tested leader with a positive net rating even as the Conservatives sit third on 21 per cent. “The job is not a popularity contest,” she said; “he has not said what he’s going to do.” With Reform bruised by a standards row, the Conservatives sense space to reclaim opposition ground. Watch whether the attacks translate into poll movement once Mr Burnham faces real decisions.

Rayner Tipped for a Cabinet Return as Burnham’s Team Takes Shape

Angela Rayner is being lined up for a Cabinet comeback as Andy Burnham finalises his top team over the weekend, according to reports, with Wes Streeting also expected to return. One account suggesting Ms Rayner would take Health to lead an £18bn National Care Service was dismissed by sources close to her. The full Cabinet will be confirmed only after Mr Burnham enters Downing Street on Monday.

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Ms Rayner resigned in 2025 over a stamp-duty bill, since settled, and declined to stand against Mr Burnham; a comeback would reward that and shore up soft-left support amid the Left’s anger over Shabana Mahmood’s likely elevation to the Treasury. Mr Burnham has said he will “expend quite a lot of political capital” on social care, with Baroness Casey’s review brought forward. With placements denied or unconfirmed, all appointments remain speculation until Monday. Watch the actual Cabinet, and whether regional MPs displace London figures.

Farage’s Finances Dog Reform on the Eve of the Handover

As Labour prepares to take power, Reform UK remains under pressure over Nigel Farage’s finances: a tax expert claims the party could face a £3m bill over his undeclared £5m donation, on top of a paused parliamentary standards inquiry and calls for an Electoral Commission investigation. Mr Farage denies any wrongdoing and alleges an “establishment hit job”.

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Mr Farage resigned his Clacton seat this month to trigger a by-election, suspending the standards inquiry until any re-election. The scrutiny coincides with Reform slipping in the polls — Survation had it down three points to 24 per cent — handing Mr Burnham and Mrs Badenoch an opening. Mr Farage insists he has “done no wrongdoing” and “followed the rules”. Watch whether the funding questions resurface around the 13 August Clacton by-election, and whether Reform’s slide continues once a new government dominates the agenda.
One To Read

Burnham’s “Reset” Before Downing Street

The Guardian · On the eve of taking office, the incoming Prime Minister moves to scrap Sir Keir Starmer’s £2bn digital ID scheme and redirect the money to the cost of living — a first, deliberate signal of distance from his predecessor, and a preview of the “reset of priorities” he intends to set out from Downing Street on Monday.
☾

Evening Briefing

Saturday 18 July 2026 — 18:00 BST

What It Means For You

  • Petrol & Energy: Brent crude settled near $88 a barrel — a one-month high, up more than 14 per cent on the week — as the US–Iran war choked the Strait of Hormuz. Forecourt prices and the wholesale gas price that sets energy bills are directly exposed, and a fresh sustained closure of the strait would push both higher.
  • A New Prime Minister on Monday: Andy Burnham enters Downing Street on Monday signalling a change of direction — a cost-of-living package that would cut VAT on energy and make heat pumps cheaper, a shift towards new North Sea drilling, and greater public control of utilities such as Thames Water, with Shabana Mahmood tipped as Chancellor. Expect tax and spending decisions in the autumn.
  • Savings & Markets: The ten-year gilt yield sits near 4.97 per cent and a safe-haven bid lifted gold on Friday, but a prolonged war-driven oil shock is the main threat to the inflation the incoming government has promised to bring down.

GEO Geopolitical

Two US Troops Killed as Iranian Missiles Strike Jordan Base

Two American service members were killed and one remains missing after an Iranian ballistic missile and drone attack on the Muwaffaq Salti airbase at Azraq in Jordan late on Friday, US Central Command said. Four others were taken to hospital and later discharged. They are the first American fatalities of the renewed conflict, and prompted a direct retaliatory bombing order from Washington.

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The deaths shattered any remaining pretence of the collapsed June ceasefire and drew Washington and Tehran visibly closer to open war; the Defence Secretary, Pete Hegseth, said the fallen troops’ “sacrifice only stiffens our resolve”. Analysts note Iran is now firing high-speed, manoeuvring missiles at American bases, and US officials have voiced concern that Russia and China may be aiding Iranian targeting. The retaliation was swift: Washington ordered a fresh wave of strikes to “punish” the Revolutionary Guard units behind the attack. Britain’s forces sit inside the theatre, at the Bahrain naval base and the Qatar air hub. Watch whether the missing serviceman is recovered and how far the American response escalates.

Iran Strikes Kuwait, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia in Widening Barrage

Iran launched attacks across the Gulf on Saturday, striking a Kuwaiti power and desalination plant and an oil facility, hitting Bahrain’s Sheikh Isa airbase, and firing a ballistic missile at a US base at al-Kharj near Riyadh — its first strike on Saudi territory in nearly three months. Kuwait International Airport suspended operations; Jordan said it intercepted four drones and ten missiles.

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That Iran fired only a single missile at al-Kharj, with sirens also sounding near the Red Sea oil terminal of Yanbu, suggests calibrated pressure rather than an all-out assault on a kingdom that favours a diplomatic settlement. The repeated hits on desalination plants, which supply most of the drinking water in these desert states, have stoked water-security fears and reports of residents stockpiling bottled water. The Gulf Cooperation Council accused Tehran of targeting civilian infrastructure and of “war crimes”. Watch whether Iran makes good on its published threats against five named Gulf ports, which would pull more states directly into the war.

Oil Jumps to a One-Month High as West Demands Strait Reopened

Oil prices climbed more than four per cent to their highest in over a month as Iran and the United States traded strikes on energy and shipping infrastructure, with Brent settling around $88 a barrel. Washington reimposed a naval blockade of Iranian ports, while Tehran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed. The European Union and Gulf states jointly demanded that Iran halt its attacks and keep the waterway open without fees.

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Roughly a fifth of the world’s oil normally transits Hormuz, and flows had already collapsed from about 20 million barrels a day before the conflict to 2.7 million during the spring crisis, prompting the largest-ever coordinated release of emergency stocks. With Brent up more than 14 per cent on the week, a fresh sustained closure threatens to unravel the tentative supply recovery forecasters had expected. For Britain the transmission is quick, through petrol, diesel and the wholesale gas price that sets energy bills. Watch Houthi activity in the Red Sea, which Iran has reportedly urged its allies to escalate.

Ukrainian Drones Cripple Russia’s Largest Retailer’s Warehouses

Ukrainian long-range drones struck two vast logistics hubs of Wildberries, Russia’s largest online retailer, near Moscow and in Tambov overnight, causing fires and losses estimated at up to 100 billion roubles, around $1.3bn. Russian governors said the strikes killed eight and injured more than sixty. On the front, Russia’s top general, Valery Gerasimov, again claimed sweeping advances in Donetsk that war analysts say the evidence does not support.

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The Institute for the Study of War assesses that Russian forces actually lost territory at about 1.6 square kilometres a day in the first half of July, casting General Gerasimov’s choreographed claims as cognitive warfare rather than battlefield reality. Kyiv’s deepening campaign against shipping, energy and now civilian-facing logistics is diverting elite Russian drone units from the front and straining an already weakening war economy amid falling approval for President Putin. Casualty and damage figures on both sides are single-sourced and should be treated with care. Watch whether these economic strikes provoke a Russian escalation or begin to shift domestic sentiment.

Lebanon’s President Heads to the White House Over Israeli Withdrawal

The Lebanese President, Joseph Aoun, departed for Washington to meet President Trump, the first visit by a Lebanese head of state since 2009. Mr Aoun will press for American guarantees on an Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, reinforcement of the fragile framework agreement, and a reconstruction package. The trip follows US-mediated talks in Rome that agreed “pilot zones” for a phased Israeli pull-back.

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More than 4,250 people have been killed in Lebanon since March and about a million displaced, yet Israeli forces remain inside parts of the south and continue periodic strikes. Hezbollah has rejected the framework outright and refuses to disarm, arguing that only Iranian pressure can force an Israeli withdrawal — a stance that sharpens the stakes as its patron fights Washington across the Gulf. For Mr Aoun, a public American commitment to pressure Israel is the central prize of the visit. Watch whether Mr Trump offers one, and how Hezbollah responds to a deal struck over its objections.

UK UK Domestic Politics

Mahmood Favourite for Chancellor as Burnham Finalises His Team

The Home Secretary, Shabana Mahmood, has become the frontrunner to replace Rachel Reeves as Chancellor when Andy Burnham names his Cabinet on Monday, after his inner circle objected to the early favourite, Ed Miliband, now tipped for the Foreign Office. Seen as being on Labour’s right and able to reassure markets, Ms Mahmood has no prior economic brief. Mr Burnham insists no final decision has been made.

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The choice of Chancellor is read as the defining signal of Mr Burnham’s intent, to Labour MPs and the bond markets alike, with the ten-year gilt yield near 4.97 per cent. Ms Reeves, the country’s first woman Chancellor, has lobbied to stay but is expected to be moved, with Yvette Cooper and Wes Streeting also in the frame. Mr Burnham has said it would be “somewhat premature” to confirm names and would “cause complete chaos” before he is in post. Left-wing MPs are unhappy at Ms Mahmood’s likely elevation from the party’s right. Watch Monday for the full Cabinet, and whether he governs from a ‘No 10 North’ in Manchester.

Burnham Plans New North Sea Drilling in Break With Manifesto

Andy Burnham will announce plans for new North Sea oil and gas drilling once in office, a shift from Labour’s 2024 manifesto pledge to issue no new licences. Green figures and campaigners rounded on him within hours, while industry and unions welcomed the move. Sources stress that no final decision has been made and that the plan may come after his first day.

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The flashpoint is the Rosebank and Jackdaw fields off Scotland, approved under the Conservatives, then overturned in 2025, with live consultations closing in August limiting what Mr Burnham can approve immediately. Backing new drilling could complicate his choice of Chancellor, given Mr Miliband’s staunch defence of the manifesto line. The Green MP Adrian Ramsay said approving new drilling was “exactly the wrong response” and would “do nothing to bring down energy bills”, while Offshore Energies UK argued it was “common sense” to prioritise domestic production and jobs. Watch whether Mr Burnham frames it as a change of emphasis or a genuine reversal.

Burnham Lines Up a Cost-of-Living Package to Cut Energy Bills

Andy Burnham is preparing a cost-of-living package as one of his first acts as Prime Minister, reportedly including making heat pumps cheaper than gas boilers and cutting VAT on domestic energy. Aides say he intends a “dynamic start”, with a Downing Street speech promising households “breathing space” and growth “in every postcode”.

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The package is central to Mr Burnham’s argument that a change of leader can mean a change of priorities without a general election. Cutting VAT on domestic energy, currently five per cent, and shifting incentives towards heat pumps would carry a fiscal cost at a time of tight public finances and a Reform challenge on living standards. It sits alongside his devolution and public-ownership themes. Watch Monday’s first speech for whether concrete numbers, and the money to pay for them, accompany the promises, or whether the Opposition’s charge that it is “airy-fairy” sticks.

Labour Pulls Level With Reform in the Final Starmer-Era Poll

Labour has drawn level with Reform UK on 24 per cent each, up five points and its biggest single jump since the 2024 election, in Survation’s last poll of Sir Keir Starmer’s leadership. Reform fell three points to 24 per cent, its lowest in over a year; the Conservatives rose to 21. Prompting voters with Mr Burnham’s name made no difference, suggesting he is already seen as the de-facto leader.

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After trailing for more than a year, Labour’s recovery reframes the succession as a genuine contest rather than damage limitation, and has fuelled speculation that Mr Burnham could be tempted to call an early election to bank a “Burnham bounce”. The caveats are heavy: Labour’s net favourability remains worse than Reform’s and the Conservatives’, and Sir Keir departs the most disliked leader the pollster tests. A separate Ipsos poll found Mr Burnham the public’s clear choice for prime minister on 30 per cent. Watch the first fully post-handover polls for whether the bounce holds once he owns the decisions.

Thames Water Awaits Burnham as First Public-Ownership Test

Debt-laden Thames Water, around £20bn in the red and serving 16 million customers, is shaping up as the earliest test of Mr Burnham’s pledge for “greater public control” of essential services. He has said there is a strong case for public ownership; the company’s lenders say they want to see what a Burnham government intends before providing more funding.

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Mr Burnham has floated a ten-year programme of taking firms into public control as they fail or their franchises end, pointing to Greater Manchester’s publicly controlled buses as a model. The immediate choice is between a temporary special administration and costlier full nationalisation, which could require legislation and a collision with litigious creditors. Thames Water’s chief executive, Chris Weston, has said lenders “want to see what the new Burnham government thinks before providing more funding”. Estimates for taking the whole sector into public hands run to tens of billions of pounds. Watch whether the incoming team triggers special administration in his first weeks.
One To Read

Inside Iran’s Widening War

Institute for the Study of War · The ISW’s special report on the renewed campaign traces how the collapse of June’s memorandum has pulled Washington and Tehran back towards open war — the targeting of bridges, ports and power across Iran’s south, the spread of the fight to Kuwait, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, and the divide inside Tehran over whether to fight or negotiate.
☀

Morning Briefing

Saturday 18 July 2026 — 10:17 BST

What It Means For You

  • Petrol & Energy: Brent crude jumped to about $88 a barrel — up around 16 per cent on the week — as the widening US–Iran war throttled traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Forecourt prices and the wholesale gas price that sets energy bills are directly exposed, and a confirmed move on a second chokepoint would push both higher.
  • A New Prime Minister on Monday: Andy Burnham enters Downing Street on Monday with an interventionist agenda — public control of essential services, a large council-housing drive, and no ruling-out of a wealth tax — with Shabana Mahmood tipped as Chancellor. Expect a shift in economic direction and likely tax decisions in the autumn.
  • Savings & Markets: Fear drove a safe-haven move on Friday: gold rose and UK and US government bond yields eased, but a chip-led sell-off pushed shares lower and the “fear gauge” jumped around 12 per cent. A sustained oil shock would feed the inflation the new government has promised to bring down.

GEO Geopolitical

Iran Warns of “Full-Scale Offensive” After a Seventh Night of Strikes

US Central Command said it completed a seventh consecutive night of strikes on Iran early on Saturday, hitting weapons stores and maritime targets around Bandar Abbas and the Strait of Hormuz. A senior adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, Mohsen Rezaei, warned that Tehran would move to “full-scale offensive operations” within days if the barrage continued through the weekend. Iranian officials say 38 people have been killed and more than 400 wounded over the past week.

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The renewed campaign follows the collapse of June’s ceasefire memorandum, with Washington framing the strikes as degrading Iran’s military capacity and Tehran retaliating against the Gulf states that host American bases. That both sides are now striking bridges, ports and power infrastructure has prompted legal scholars to warn that hitting facilities of wide civilian use could, in some circumstances, amount to a war crime. Iran’s casualty figures are state-sourced and cannot be independently verified. British forces sit inside the theatre, at the Bahrain naval base and the Qatar air hub. Watch whether an eighth night triggers the threatened shift from measured retaliation to a wider offensive.

Iran Hits Kuwaiti Power Plant as the War Spills Across the Gulf

Iran’s retaliation reached deep into Gulf civilian infrastructure, with Kuwait reporting that an Iranian strike damaged a combined power and desalination plant, starting a fire and knocking out generating units. Desalination supplies around 90 per cent of Kuwait’s drinking water, exposing the vulnerability of the Gulf states now caught in the war. Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar said their air defences intercepted further drone attacks overnight, and Kuwaiti forces reported injuries among their troops.

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Striking a plant that makes both the electricity and the drinking water for a desert state is a dangerous new register in this war, turning the fragility of Gulf economies into a weapon and placing civilians far from the front line in harm’s way. Kuwait hosts American bases that make it a target while depending on the very infrastructure now being hit. Qatar, a key mediator between Washington and Tehran, is itself under fire, narrowing any diplomatic off-ramp. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard framed the attacks as a fresh “wave” of a widening campaign. Watch whether a Gulf state suffers mass casualties, which would pressure it to demand American restraint.

Oil Surges to $88 as Strait of Hormuz Shipping Collapses

Brent crude settled 4.6 per cent higher at $88.10 a barrel on Friday, capping a weekly gain of about 16 per cent — its strongest in months — as the US–Iran strikes choked the Strait of Hormuz. Confirmed crude transit through the waterway has fallen by around 62 per cent to some four million barrels a day. Tehran has pressed Yemen’s Houthis to be ready to close the Red Sea, raising the prospect of a second severed chokepoint.

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Around a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil normally passes through Hormuz, so even partial disruption keeps a durable war-risk premium in the price. War-risk insurance on tankers has ballooned and traffic has thinned to a handful of vessels a day. A parallel campaign around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, at the mouth of the Red Sea, would open a second crisis for crude and refined-product flows and force yet more shipping on the long haul around Africa. For Britain the transmission is quick, through petrol, diesel and the wholesale gas price that sets energy bills. Watch for any confirmed Houthi move, which could drive Brent decisively through $90.

Russia Digs In for Attrition War as Putin’s Approval Slumps

Russia is optimising its forces for grinding positional warfare rather than the mechanised manoeuvre needed for rapid gains, and neither side made confirmed advances on Friday, according to the latest campaign assessment. A Russian state-affiliated pollster recorded one of the sharpest falls in President Putin’s approval since the war began. In Kyiv, President Zelensky pressed on with a sweeping wartime cabinet reshuffle, installing a new prime minister and moving to change his defence chief.

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The assessment argues that Moscow’s war priorities and poor economic management are dragging Russia towards broader decline, a rare signal of strain behind the front. Overnight Russia fired guided missiles and more than a hundred drones at Ukraine, and Kyiv was placed on alert over ballistic-missile threats. Zelensky’s reshuffle installed the former Naftogaz chief Serhiy Koretsky as prime minister, part of a churn he says is meant to sharpen delivery on foreign policy and the war. Casualty and equipment claims on both sides are single-sourced and should be treated with care. Watch whether the personnel changes steady or disrupt Ukraine’s war management heading into winter.

Powerful Earthquake Rattles Southern Mexico, No Deaths Reported

A magnitude 7.3 earthquake struck off the coast of Chiapas in southern Mexico, shaking buildings from Mexico City to El Salvador and briefly triggering a Pacific tsunami advisory that was later lifted. Authorities reported no deaths and only minor injuries and structural damage across Mexico, Guatemala and El Salvador. President Claudia Sheinbaum said preliminary reports showed no significant damage in the affected states.

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The US Geological Survey put the epicentre about 48km south-west of Aquiles Serdán at a shallow depth of roughly 15km; Mexican civil-protection authorities cited a magnitude of 7.4. The quake was followed by a string of aftershocks, and the navy urged people to stay away from beaches for several hours. Mexico City’s earthquake early-warning siren did not sound, the government said, because the energy radiated in the first seconds fell below its activation threshold. The region is highly seismic; a 2017 quake killed hundreds in the capital. Watch for damage assessments in rural Chiapas, where buildings are weaker.

UK UK Domestic Politics

Burnham Declared Labour Leader, to Become Prime Minister on Monday

Andy Burnham was formally declared leader of the governing Labour Party on Friday, securing nominations from 379 of the party’s 403 MPs as the sole candidate to succeed Sir Keir Starmer. The former Greater Manchester mayor becomes Britain’s seventh prime minister since 2016 when Sir Keir tenders his resignation to the King on Monday. In his first speech Mr Burnham promised to “give people hope back” and to build “a new politics”.

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Mr Burnham reaches Downing Street without facing the country, having returned to Parliament through the June Makerfield by-election only weeks before Sir Keir was toppled by a party revolt that followed disastrous May local elections. His mandate rests on Labour’s MPs rather than its members or the voters, and he inherits a party level-pegging with Reform UK and a bleak fiscal inheritance. The immediate test is whether a broad-church cabinet can hold a fractious parliamentary party together. Watch for the King’s invitation to form a government on Monday and the first appointments, which will signal how sharply he means to break from the Starmer era.

Reeves Faces the Axe as Burnham Lines Up a New Chancellor

Rachel Reeves is expected to leave the Treasury when Mr Burnham names his government on Monday, with the Home Secretary, Shabana Mahmood, the reported frontrunner to become Chancellor. The energy secretary, Ed Miliband, once tipped for the role, is instead expected to move to the Foreign Office. Mr Burnham’s team insists no final decisions have been taken and that the full cabinet will be appointed only after he enters Downing Street.

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The choice of Chancellor is Mr Burnham’s most consequential appointment, setting the fiscal tone for a government inheriting borrowing running well above the official forecasts. Ms Mahmood’s rumoured move to the Treasury has reportedly steadied nervous markets, while sidelining Mr Miliband is read as an effort to deny business a target over his energy stance. Ms Reeves, who backed Sir Keir through the leadership crisis and lobbied to keep her post, would be the most senior casualty of the transition. A cautious Chancellor serving an interventionist leader is a study in tension the Budget will test. Watch whether the appointment is confirmed on Monday and how gilts react when Westminster reopens.

Labour Pulls Level With Reform as Burnham Inherits a Polling Boost

Labour has drawn level with Reform UK on 24 per cent apiece, according to a Survation poll, its largest jump since the 2024 general election and the first time it has caught Reform in the series for more than a year. The Conservatives trail on 21 per cent. A separate Ipsos poll found Mr Burnham is the public’s clear choice for prime minister on 30 per cent, well ahead of Nigel Farage and Kemi Badenoch.

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The Labour surge, recorded before Mr Burnham even takes office, hands the incoming prime minister rare momentum after months in which Reform led every poll. Reform’s slide to its lowest share since the May 2025 local elections coincides with Mr Farage’s own troubles over party funding. Yet Ipsos cautions that the public is not convinced Mr Burnham is ready for the job, and Survation’s figures still show four parties clustered within striking distance of one another. Watch whether the “Burnham bounce” survives contact with government and his first appearance at the despatch box as prime minister.

Farage to Fight a Record 33 Rivals in Clacton By-Election

Nigel Farage will face a record 33 candidates in the Clacton by-election on 13 August, a contest he triggered himself by resigning as an MP on 7 July and re-standing. His resignation suspended a parliamentary standards inquiry into an undeclared £5m donation from the businessman Christopher Harborne. Labour, the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens are all boycotting the seat.

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The by-election crystallises the pressure on Reform UK just as its poll lead evaporates. By quitting and re-standing, Mr Farage froze the standards commissioner’s inquiry into the Harborne money, which bankers had separately referred to the National Crime Agency under money-laundering rules. The major parties’ refusal to contest the seat leaves a field of independents and novelty candidates, letting Mr Farage frame the race as the people against the establishment while avoiding a serious challenger. Watch the campaign’s effect on Reform’s national standing and whether the funding questions resurface after polling day.

Burnham Pledges a Power Shift From Westminster and a Housing Drive

In his first speech as Labour leader, Mr Burnham set out a programme built on shifting power out of Whitehall, “the biggest council house building programme since the postwar period”, and fixing social care. He argued that Britain took “a series of wrong turns in the 1980s” when power was centralised and essential services privatised, promising “good growth in every postcode” and greater public control of utilities.

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The agenda marks a deliberate tonal break from Sir Keir, leaning on the devolution record Mr Burnham built as Greater Manchester mayor and reviving classic Labour themes of public ownership and mass housebuilding. The pledges are ambitious against a constrained fiscal inheritance, and delivery will collide quickly with Treasury limits and a social-care funding question that has defeated successive governments. His framing of the 1980s as a historic wrong turn positions him clearly to Sir Keir’s left. Watch how these commitments are costed in his first cabinet’s early decisions and whether an early fiscal statement follows the handover.
One To Read

The Man About to Walk Into Downing Street

CBS News · As Andy Burnham prepares to become Britain’s seventh prime minister in a decade on Monday, a portrait of the former Greater Manchester mayor who reached No 10 without an election — the “unashamedly Labour” agenda he brings, the mandate that rests on his MPs rather than the voters, and the fiscal and party tensions that will define his first weeks.
☾

Evening Briefing

Friday 17 July 2026 — 17:55 BST

What It Means For You

  • Petrol & Energy: Brent crude jumped around 2% to about $86 a barrel as the US widened its strikes on Iran and Iran hit a Gulf power plant. Pump prices, near 151p a litre, will keep climbing, and the wholesale gas price that sets energy bills is exposed to the same shock.
  • A New Prime Minister on Monday: Andy Burnham was confirmed Labour leader today and enters No 10 on Monday. He has signalled a more interventionist course — greater public control of essential services, more social housing, and he has not ruled out a wealth tax — with Shabana Mahmood tipped as Chancellor. Expect a shift in economic direction and likely tax rises in the autumn.
  • Heat, Fire & Water: Today was forecast to be the hottest of the spell, up to 35 to 36C in the South, before a cooler, more unsettled weekend brings a risk of heavy showers and thunderstorms. Hosepipe bans now cover millions of households. Save water, and take care in any sudden downpours.

GEO Geopolitical

US Strikes Iran’s Bridges and Bandar Abbas Port on a Sixth Night

American forces widened their campaign against Iran overnight, striking five road and rail bridges in Hormozgan province in an apparent bid to sever the port city of Bandar Abbas from its links to Tehran. US Central Command said precision munitions hit dozens of military targets near Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island, collapsed a tower at the port complex, and again struck Iranshahr airport; US forces also boarded a tanker. It was the sixth consecutive night of strikes, enacting part of President Trump’s threat to “knock out all their bridges”, though the threatened strikes on power plants have not been carried out.

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Hitting the bridges and the port marks a deliberate move against the arteries that keep a country supplied, an escalation from military targets towards the infrastructure of civilian life, and it is Trump’s earlier threat turned into policy rather than rhetoric. Severing Bandar Abbas, Iran’s most important Gulf port, from road and rail is meant to choke the flow of men and materiel to the coast, but it also deepens the humanitarian toll and hardens Tehran’s refusal to talk. That the power plants have been threatened but not yet struck is the thin line still separating a punishing campaign from an assault on the systems that keep the lights and water on. Iran’s casualty figures are state-sourced and unverifiable, and should be read as claims. Britain’s forces sit inside the theatre, at the Bahrain naval base and the Qatar air hub. Watch whether the strikes cross onto power and water infrastructure, whether the tanker seizures multiply, and whether any verified toll emerges.

Iran Hits a Kuwaiti Water and Power Plant, Widening the War

Iran’s retaliation reached deep into Gulf civilian infrastructure, with Kuwait reporting that an Iranian strike damaged a combined desalination and electricity plant, starting a fire and knocking out several generating units. Desalination supplies around 90% of Kuwait’s drinking water, laying bare the vulnerability of the Gulf states now caught in the war. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, which called it part of a “15th wave” of its operation, also claimed strikes on US assets in Qatar, Bahrain, Jordan and Oman, though those claims could not be verified.

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Striking a plant that makes both the electricity and the drinking water for a Gulf state is a dangerous new register in this war: it turns the fragility of desert economies, which manufacture their water from the sea, into a weapon, and it puts civilian populations far from the front line directly in harm’s way. Kuwait sits among the American bases that make it a target while depending on the very infrastructure now being hit, and the damage to a single plant that supplies most of the country’s water is a warning of how quickly the war could create a humanitarian crisis in a bystander state. Iran’s framing of an ever-escalating series of “waves” suggests a campaign it intends to widen, not wind down, and its claims against US sites across the Gulf, if true, would pull yet more states towards the fight. Watch whether Kuwait restores its water and power, whether other Gulf utilities are hit, and how the Arab states respond to being dragged in.

Oil Climbs Toward $86 as Iran Threatens a Second Chokepoint

Brent crude rose around 2% on Friday to roughly $86 a barrel, its highest in weeks, after the strike on Kuwait’s power plant and the widening US campaign, with tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz at a two-month low. Adding to the alarm, Tehran was reported to have told Yemen’s Houthis to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait — a second vital chokepoint for global shipping — if its power infrastructure is struck. Together the two straits carry a large share of the world’s seaborne oil.

Dive deeper
The threat to Bab el-Mandeb is the escalation the oil market fears most: a war confined to Hormuz is dangerous enough, but drawing in the Houthis to close the strait at the mouth of the Red Sea would put a second of the world’s critical chokepoints in play, squeezing the route to the Suez Canal and forcing yet more shipping onto the long haul around Africa. That Brent has climbed to around $86 rather than spiking far higher suggests the market still treats the second-chokepoint threat as conditional, but the risk premium is building with every widening of the war. For Britain the transmission is quick, through petrol, diesel and the gas price that sets energy bills, and a sustained shock would feed straight into the inflation the incoming government has promised to tackle. Watch whether the Houthis act, the daily transit counts through both straits, and where the oil price settles into next week.

Russian Strikes Kill Four in Ukraine as the Reshuffle Backlash Grows

Russian attacks overnight killed at least four people and wounded around twenty across Ukraine, with two dead in Odesa, two in Zaporizhzhia and injuries in Kharkiv. The strikes came as Ukraine fights under an interim defence chief following President Zelensky’s contested government reshuffle, whose sacking of the popular defence minister Mykhaylo Fedorov has drawn protests in several cities. Ukraine said it had destroyed a Russian Tu-95 bomber at the Engels airbase, some 800 kilometres inside Russia, in its continuing campaign against the aircraft and refineries that sustain Moscow’s war.

Dive deeper
The overnight deaths are a reminder that beneath the political drama in Kyiv the war grinds on at its lethal daily pace, and that Zelensky’s decision to overhaul his government mid-conflict has unsettled the country at a delicate moment. Removing the minister who built the drone force that has kept Ukraine competitive, and doing so to public protest, is a gamble on fresh momentum against the risk of disruption. The claimed destruction of a Tu-95 deep inside Russia, if confirmed, would be a striking success for that same long-range campaign, which aims to blunt the bombers and drain the fuel that power Russia’s onslaught. Casualty and equipment claims on both sides are single-sourced and should be treated with care. Europe’s new missile-defence coalition and Britain’s promised jets are meant to steady the balance, but they take time. Watch whether the protests grow, whether the new defence team holds, and whether Ukraine’s strikes keep reaching into Russia.

A Spanish Wildfire Forces Evacuations as Europe’s Heat Rebuilds

Firefighters in north-eastern Spain battled a wildfire near Ores in Aragon that spread past 12,000 hectares overnight, forcing more than a thousand people to evacuate, with some 30 aircraft and 300 military personnel deployed. Further fires burned near Madrid and in Guadalajara, and Athens was on high alert. Though the heatwave that set the continent alight is receding — the World Health Organization has linked the recent spell to around 10,000 excess deaths — forecasters warn temperatures will rebuild from Saturday, with 42 to 44C possible in southern Spain next week.

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A fire the size of a large city, driven by heat and drought, is the visible edge of a summer that has turned much of southern Europe into tinder, and the deployment of the army alongside the fire services is a measure of how far these blazes now outstrip ordinary resources. The WHO’s estimate of around 10,000 excess deaths from the recent heat is the less visible toll, the quiet mortality that accumulates in homes and hospitals while the cameras point at the flames. That the heat is forecast to rebuild within days, with temperatures approaching the mid-40s in parts of Spain, shows this is not a single event but a pattern settling over European summers, straining systems built for a cooler climate. For the many Britons holidaying in Spain, Greece and Italy this month, the fires and the heat are a direct concern. Watch the containment of the Spanish fires, the death tolls once the smoke clears, and how high the next surge of heat climbs.

UK UK Domestic Politics

Burnham Declared Labour Leader, Vowing the “Biggest Rebalancing”

Andy Burnham was formally declared leader of the Labour Party at a special conference in London today, the last step before he enters Downing Street on Monday as Prime Minister. The sole candidate, backed by the overwhelming majority of Labour’s MPs and most of the affiliated unions, he used his acceptance speech to promise to “give people hope back” and “good growth in every postcode”, pledging the “biggest rebalancing” of power in modern British history from Whitehall to the cities and regions. He said his government would be “unashamedly Labour”, named social care as a neglected problem he would fix, and paid tribute to Sir Keir Starmer.

Dive deeper
The coronation is complete; the hard part begins on Monday. Burnham arrives with a rare mandate from his MPs but an untested one with the public, and his “unashamedly Labour” framing and talk of rebalancing power signal an intent to govern more boldly, and from further left, than the cautious predecessor his own party removed. The promise to devolve power from Whitehall to the regions is the through-line of his political career, the “Manchesterism” his allies have long trailed, but turning a slogan into a settlement will collide with a Treasury that guards central control and a set of public finances with little room. His backing from nearly the whole parliamentary party papers over divisions, between the left that lifted him and the centre he must govern from, that his cabinet and his first decisions will quickly expose. With the Commons in recess until September, he has a summer to form a government. Watch the cabinet he names next week, the fate of the wealth-tax question, and which of the “big things” he moves on first.

Burnham’s Economic Pitch: Public Control of Essentials

In his first remarks as leader, Andy Burnham set out an interventionist economic direction, arguing that the government could not control inflation without greater public control over essential services. He named a ramp-up in social housing, the reindustrialisation of the economy and bringing essential utilities under greater public control as priorities, framing them against a squeezed cost of living. The pitch marks a clear shift in tone from the outgoing government’s fiscal caution, and sits alongside his refusal to rule out a wealth tax.

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Arguing that inflation cannot be tamed without public control of essentials is a distinctly different economic philosophy from the one Britain has run for a generation, and it signals that a Burnham government may reach for the state where its predecessors reached for the market. The instinct has a logic — energy and water bills have been a large part of the inflation households feel, and public ownership is popular — but it collides with cost, with the compensation bills that nationalisation brings, as the British Steel case has just shown, and with the bond markets that punished the last government to spook them. The tension at the heart of the new government is already visible: an interventionist instinct at the top, and a reportedly cautious Chancellor-in-waiting in Shabana Mahmood who will have to find the money. How that tension resolves — how much ambition survives contact with the public finances — will define the Burnham years. Watch the first spending signals, the shape of any utilities policy, and how the markets price the new direction.

Mahmood Set for Chancellor as the Cabinet Takes Shape

Reports say Andy Burnham is set to name the Home Secretary, Shabana Mahmood, as his Chancellor, having chosen her over Ed Miliband, Yvette Cooper and Wes Streeting. Mr Miliband, once the favourite, is now seen as unlikely for the Treasury amid business concern over his energy stance, and Rachel Reeves is reported to be leaving the Chancellorship. No appointments are confirmed, and Mr Burnham is expected to name his cabinet only after he enters Downing Street on Monday.

Dive deeper
The Chancellor is the choice that will define a Burnham government, and the reported selection of Mahmood over Miliband is being read as a signal of fiscal caution rather than a lurch, a counterweight to the interventionist instincts of the leader she would serve. Mahmood, who as Home Secretary drove through a tightening of asylum law, is a figure of the party’s disciplined centre, and her name at the Treasury has reportedly steadied nervous markets. The apparent decision to keep Miliband away from the economy, sending him instead towards the Foreign Office, reflects the worry his net-zero and North Sea positions stirred in business. Yet a cautious Chancellor serving a leader who talks of public ownership and will not rule out a wealth tax is a study in tension, and the Budget will be where it is tested. All of it remains reporting until Burnham speaks from No 10. Watch the confirmed appointments after Monday, and how the left responds to the shape of the team.

China Rebukes Britain Over the British Steel Nationalisation

China reacted angrily to the nationalisation of British Steel, with its commerce ministry saying it was “strongly dissatisfied” and warning the move had dealt “a severe blow to Chinese companies’ confidence in investing in the UK”. The government took the Scunthorpe steelworks — Britain’s last able to make steel from raw materials — and its Teesside mills into public ownership on Thursday, protecting thousands of jobs, after the Chinese owner Jingye, which bought the business for £70m in 2020, moved to halt operations at a plant losing around £700,000 a day.

Dive deeper
Beijing’s rebuke turns an industrial rescue into a diplomatic irritant, and it lands on the incoming government as one of the first tests of a China policy it has yet to define. The government’s case is that steelmaking is a matter of national security — losing Scunthorpe would have left Britain the only G7 nation unable to make virgin steel — and that the security of supply for defence and construction outweighs the chill to Chinese investment. But China’s warning is a reminder of the leverage that comes with that investment, and of the wider dilemma of relying on a strategic rival for critical industry. The unresolved question of compensation for Jingye, to be set by an independent valuer against a plant whose debts may exceed its assets, will keep the dispute alive. Burnham inherits both the steelworks and the row. Watch the compensation settlement, Beijing’s next move, and how the new government frames its approach to Chinese investment.

Heatwave Peaks as Thunderstorms Loom for the Weekend

Friday was forecast to be the hottest day of Britain’s third heatwave, with temperatures expected to reach 35 to 36C in southern and eastern England under heat-health alerts that ran until this evening. A cooler, more unsettled spell is due to arrive over the weekend as fresher Atlantic air moves in, bringing a rising risk of heavy showers and thunderstorms, with the potential for downpours, lightning and gusty winds. Two more hosepipe bans, from Cambridge Water — its first in three decades — and Affinity Water, are now in force, part of a wave of restrictions across the country.

Dive deeper
The break in the heat, when it comes, may arrive with a sting: the switch from a prolonged hot, dry spell to thundery downpours brings its own hazards, as rain falls on ground too hard and dry to absorb it, raising the risk of flash flooding, while lightning can spark the very wildfires the heat has primed. The spell now ending has been remarkable for its length — England has recorded an unprecedented run of days above 34C — and its legacy is a landscape drained of water, with reservoirs low enough that hosepipe bans now reach millions, including Cambridge Water’s first in thirty years. The deeper story is a system with too little slack meeting a climate delivering hotter, drier summers, and the argument over the water companies’ under-investment will only sharpen. Watch how far the weekend cooldown reaches, whether formal thunderstorm warnings are issued, and whether the Environment Agency moves to declare a drought.
One To Read

The Making of Prime Minister Burnham

ITV News · As Andy Burnham is confirmed Labour leader and prepares to enter Downing Street on Monday, a look at the “unashamedly Labour” agenda he is bringing with him — the promised rebalancing of power to the regions, the interventionist economics, and the questions of tax and cabinet that will define his first weeks in office.
☀

Morning Briefing

Friday 17 July 2026 — 07:39 BST

What It Means For You

  • Petrol & Energy: Oil is holding around $84 to $85 a barrel as the US blockade keeps shipping through the Strait of Hormuz near a two-month low, and pump prices — close to 151p a litre — are climbing again. The wholesale gas price that sets energy bills is exposed to the same shock.
  • A New Prime Minister on Monday — and Tax Rises Ahead: Andy Burnham is confirmed Labour leader today and becomes Prime Minister on Monday, with Shabana Mahmood tipped as his Chancellor. He has not ruled out a wealth tax and has hinted at “asking for a little more”, so plan for tax rises in the autumn Budget.
  • Heat, Fire & Water: Today brings another hot day, with up to 35 to 36C possible in the South, before a cooler, more unsettled spell with thunderstorms reaches the country over the weekend. Two more hosepipe bans, from Cambridge Water and Affinity Water, take effect today. Keep saving water and check on the elderly and unwell.

GEO Geopolitical

US Strikes Hit Iranian Airport, Railway and Bridges Overnight

American forces struck Iran again overnight, US Central Command said, in another night of a campaign now approaching a week, hitting air-defence, logistics and coastal-surveillance sites. Iranian state media reported strikes on Iranshahr airport, the Bandar Abbas railway junction and two bridges in Hormozgan province. Iran’s health ministry put the toll since the fighting resumed at more than 35 killed and over 300 wounded — a figure that cannot be independently verified. President Trump threatened to widen the war “next week”, saying the US would “knock out all their power plants… all their bridges” if Tehran refused a deal.

Dive deeper
The move against an airport, a railway junction and bridges signals a shift from purely military targets towards the infrastructure that keeps a country running, the kind of escalation that deepens the humanitarian toll and hardens a besieged government’s refusal to negotiate. Trump’s explicit threat to destroy Iran’s power plants and bridges makes that shift a stated policy rather than an accident of targeting, and it raises the stakes of a war that is already approaching its second week with no defined end. Iran’s casualty figures are self-reported and unverifiable, and should be read as claims, but even the contested numbers point to a rising human cost. Britain’s forces sit inside the theatre, at the Bahrain naval base and the Qatar air hub, and its households feel the war through the pump and the gas bill. Watch whether the strikes move decisively onto civilian infrastructure, whether the toll can be verified, and whether Trump’s threat of a wider campaign is carried out.

US Spares Kharg’s Oil Terminal as Trump Holds Off Wider Action

For all the talk of escalation, the US has so far stopped short of its most drastic options. American forces struck military targets on Kharg Island but deliberately avoided the oil terminal that handles the bulk of Iran’s crude exports, which Iran says is undamaged and operating normally, and no decision has been announced on the mooted seizing of the island or the use of ground forces. The naval blockade of Iran’s ports holds, though Trump has dropped an earlier idea of charging a toll on Hormuz shipping.

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The restraint on Kharg is the tell: striking the terminal that ships nine-tenths of Iran’s oil, or seizing the island outright, would cross from a punishing campaign into an act aimed at the country’s economic survival, and would send the oil price sharply higher while handing Tehran the narrative of an assault on its lifeline. That Washington has hit military targets there but spared the terminal suggests it still wants to keep the crude flowing and the price contained, even as it enforces the blockade. The options said to be under consideration — seizing the island, putting troops on the Gulf’s waters — remain contemplations, not decisions, and the gap between the threats and the actions is where any off-ramp still lives. For the oil market, the distinction between hitting Kharg’s defences and hitting its terminal is the difference between $85 and something far higher. Watch whether the US crosses that line, whether the blockade tightens, and where the oil price settles.

Iran’s Strikes Reach the Gulf Mediators, Straining Diplomacy

Iran’s retaliation continued to rain on US-linked sites across the Gulf — Jordan and Kuwait reported intercepting missiles and drones, with debris damage but no deaths — and, more damagingly for any peace effort, reached the mediators themselves. Oman, which had hosted Iran’s foreign minister only hours earlier, issued a rare formal protest to Tehran after strikes on its territory, and Qatar was also hit. The White House insisted Iran “very much continues to talk”, but the attacks on the very states brokering a ceasefire have left the diplomacy badly frayed.

Dive deeper
Striking the mediators is the most self-defeating move in Iran’s campaign: Oman and Qatar are the channels through which any ceasefire must pass, and hitting them — whether by design or by errant missiles — corrodes the trust on which mediation depends and pushes the exits further out of reach. Oman’s formal protest, coming just after it hosted Iran’s foreign minister, is a measure of how far the fighting has outrun the diplomacy. The Gulf monarchies are trapped in the worst position, hosting the American bases that make them targets while trying to broker an end to a war that keeps landing on their soil, and each strike raises the risk that one of them is drawn in directly. The White House’s insistence that talks continue may be as much hope as fact. Watch whether Oman and Qatar stay in the mediating role, whether any Gulf state responds militarily, and whether a channel to a ceasefire survives at all.

Zelensky’s Wartime Reshuffle Sparks a Backlash

President Zelensky’s decision to overhaul his government in the middle of the war has drawn an unusually public backlash. The dismissal of the popular defence minister Mykhaylo Fedorov, architect of Ukraine’s drone programme, along with the departure of the prime minister, triggered protests in several cities and criticism from soldiers, veterans and lawmakers who fear the loss of momentum. The reshuffle came as Russia struck Kyiv, killing at least two, and as Ukrainian drones hit a Russian refinery at Syzran, deepening Moscow’s fuel troubles.

Dive deeper
Removing a defence minister credited with building the drone force that has kept Ukraine in the fight, and doing so mid-war, is a gamble that has clearly unsettled the very people Ukraine most depends on — the soldiers and the volunteers who turned improvisation into a weapon. The rare street protests are a sign that Ukrainians, for all their unity against Russia, will not give the president a free hand over how the war is run. Zelensky’s calculation is presumably that fresh leadership can unlock new momentum, but the risk is disruption at exactly the wrong moment, as Russia intensifies its strikes on Ukrainian cities and Ukraine presses its own campaign against the refineries that fund Moscow’s war. The new European missile-defence coalition, and Britain’s promised jets, are meant to steady the balance, but they take time. Watch whether the protests grow, whether the new team holds, and whether the drone campaign keeps its edge.

Congo’s Ebola Outbreak Remains the Fastest-Growing on Record

The Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo stands at more than 2,000 confirmed cases and over 750 deaths, the fastest-growing outbreak of the disease ever recorded and now the third-largest, according to the World Health Organization, which warns the true scale may be several times the official count. The Bundibugyo strain involved has no approved vaccine, though a clinical trial of an antibody treatment has begun. Ituri province is worst hit, and a handful of cases have crossed into Uganda.

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An outbreak growing this fast with no licensed vaccine is the scenario public-health officials have long feared: earlier Ebola epidemics were checked partly because effective vaccines existed for the Zaire strain, but the Bundibugyo species now spreading has none, leaving containment to the slow, dangerous work of tracing contacts and isolating the sick. The start of a clinical trial for an antibody treatment offers a thread of hope, but it is early, and the WHO’s warning that the real toll may be several times the official figure describes an effort still losing the race in a region of fragile health systems and conflict. The spread across five provinces and over the Ugandan border raises the risk of a wider regional emergency. The world has a stake in the funding and in the danger of onward spread. Watch the case trajectory, whether the trial treatment shows promise, and whether international support arrives at the scale required.

UK UK Domestic Politics

Burnham to Be Confirmed Labour Leader Today

Andy Burnham will be formally confirmed as Labour leader at a special party conference today, having secured the leadership unopposed, and becomes Prime Minister on Monday when the King appoints him after Sir Keir Starmer resigns. In his first speech as leader he is expected to promise to be “unashamedly Labour” and to show the “courage to fix the big things that politics has neglected”. It completes one of the swiftest transfers of power in modern British history, a man outside Parliament weeks ago installed in Downing Street by Monday.

Dive deeper
Today’s conference turns a parliamentary coronation into a formal one, but the hard part begins on Monday, when the authority of an uncontested rise meets the reality of government. Burnham arrives with a rare mandate from his MPs and an untested one with the public, and his “unashamedly Labour” framing signals an intent to govern more boldly than a cautious predecessor brought down by his own benches. Yet the backing of nearly the whole parliamentary party papers over divisions — between the left that lifted him and the centre he must govern from — that his cabinet and his first decisions will quickly expose. With the Commons in recess until September, he has a summer to assemble a government and set a direction before facing the despatch box. Watch the tone of his speech today, the shape of the cabinet he names next week, and which of the “big things” he chooses to fix first.

Mahmood Set for Chancellor as the Cabinet Takes Shape

Reports say Andy Burnham is set to name the Home Secretary, Shabana Mahmood, as his Chancellor, passing over the early favourite Ed Miliband, who is now tipped for the Foreign Office. Mahmood is said to have beaten Mr Miliband, Yvette Cooper and Wes Streeting to the Treasury; Rachel Reeves is expected to be replaced. Mr Miliband’s candidacy for the Treasury had reportedly unsettled business over his stance on net zero and North Sea licensing. Burnham’s team stress no appointments are confirmed until he takes office.

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The Chancellor is the choice that will define a Burnham government, and the reported move to install Mahmood over Miliband is being read as a signal of continuity with Rachel Reeves’s fiscal caution rather than a break towards the looser, more devolutionary approach Burnham’s allies have trailed — a reading that has reportedly steadied the markets and firmed the pound. Mahmood, who as Home Secretary drove through a tightening of asylum law, is a figure of the party’s disciplined centre. Yet Burnham has declined to rule out a wealth tax, so even a cautious Chancellor may preside over tax rises. Sending Miliband to the Foreign Office rather than the Treasury would keep a heavyweight on side without handing him the economy, at the cost of angering a left that wanted him there. All of it remains reported speculation until Burnham speaks from No 10. Watch the first confirmed appointments after Monday, and how the party’s left responds to the shape of the team.

The Heat Reaches Another Hot Day as More Hosepipe Bans Begin

The heatwave brings another hot day on Friday, with the Met Office forecasting widely above 30C across England and Wales and up to 35 or 36C in the hottest spots, under yellow heat-health alerts that run until this evening. A cooler, more unsettled spell with thunderstorms is expected to reach the country over the weekend, though the South stays warm into Saturday. Two more hosepipe bans, from Cambridge Water and Affinity Water, took effect from just after midnight, covering parts of the East and South East and adding to restrictions on millions of households.

Dive deeper
The danger of this spell has always been its length: England has now sat above the heatwave threshold for well over a week, drying the ground to the point where the wildfire risk is at its highest even as the temperatures near their end. The heat’s quieter toll runs alongside the fire risk — the open-water drownings that spike in every hot spell, the strain on a stretched NHS, and the warm nights that fall hardest on the old and the ill. The spread of hosepipe bans, now reaching customers of Cambridge Water and Affinity Water, is a measure of how a dry winter and a run of heatwaves have drained a system with little slack, reviving the long argument over the water companies’ under-investment. The relief expected over the weekend may arrive as thunderstorms carrying their own risk of flash flooding. Watch today’s peak temperature, how far the weekend break reaches, and whether the Environment Agency moves to declare a drought.

Widdecombe Suspect Still Held as Scotland Brings a Charge Over Online Abuse

The man arrested over the killing of Ann Widdecombe remains in custody without charge, held under a Terrorism Act warrant while Counter Terrorism Policing leads what it has called a targeted attack; officers stress it has not been declared a terrorist incident. In a separate case, Police Scotland has charged a 50-year-old over online comments said to celebrate her death, with a report to go to the procurator fiscal. No motive has been established in the killing, and reporting restrictions limit what can be said while proceedings are active.

Dive deeper
The case remains in the careful legal silence between an arrest and a charge: Counter Terrorism Policing is examining whether Widdecombe was targeted for her politics, but no motive has been confirmed, no one has been charged with her killing, and the incident has not been formally declared an act of terrorism. Coming after the murders of Jo Cox in 2016 and Sir David Amess in 2021, a third killing of a serving or former parliamentarian in a decade weighs heavily on a political class already anxious about its safety. The separate Scottish charge, over comments celebrating a violent death, is a reminder of how quickly such killings curdle the wider public mood online, and of the reach of the laws that govern it. With a review of MPs’ security still promised, the questions are about protection and the tenor of political life. Watch the charging decision in the murder inquiry, what investigators establish about motive, and the substance of any new security measures.

The Starmer Government’s Final Acts: Kyiv and British Steel

Sir Keir Starmer’s premiership closed on two deliberate notes. On his last overseas trip he travelled to Kyiv, pledging £255m with Sweden towards 16 Gripen fighter jets for Ukraine and being awarded the Order of Freedom, telling Kyiv Britain’s support “will endure” under his successor. At home, his government took British Steel into public ownership, securing the Scunthorpe blast furnaces — Britain’s last able to make steel from raw materials — and thousands of jobs from its Chinese owner. Both now pass to Andy Burnham.

Dive deeper
The two closing acts are a fair summary of the government Starmer led: a steadfast, expensive commitment to Ukraine abroad, and an interventionist rescue of a strategic industry at home from a party that came to office promising restraint. Nationalising British Steel was a decision reached reluctantly and framed as security rather than ideology — losing Scunthorpe would have left Britain the only G7 nation unable to make virgin steel — and it hands Burnham an industrial policy already in motion, along with an unresolved bill for compensating the former owner. The Kyiv trip, with jets not due until the end of the decade, was as much a message of continuity to Moscow and to Kyiv as a parcel of hardware. Together they frame the inheritance: a set of commitments, foreign and industrial, that the new Prime Minister must now fund and see through. Watch how Burnham carries both forward, the compensation settlement over British Steel, and whether the jet deal holds to its timeline.
One To Read

“Unashamedly Labour”: Burnham’s Opening Pitch

ITV News · Ahead of his confirmation as Labour leader, a look at the message Andy Burnham will carry into Downing Street — the promise to be “unashamedly Labour” and to fix “the big things that politics has neglected” — and the questions about tax, the cabinet and the direction of his government.
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