Evening Briefing
What It Means For You
- Petrol hit 140.3p/litre this week (+4.6p), the highest since August 2024 — diesel at 158.8p and climbing; fill up now if you can, prices have further to rise
- Energy minister admits “no question” the war impacts UK bills — the April price cap drop may be reversed by July; government “stands ready” to intervene on policy costs
- BoE rate decision in three days — Reuters poll expects a cut to 3.5% but markets are pricing a hold; 472 mortgage products pulled this week, best 5-year fix around 3.75%
Geopolitical
Israel Claims Double Decapitation — Larijani and Basij Commander Killed
Israel announced it has killed both Ali Larijani, Iran’s de facto ruler and top security official, and Gholamreza Soleimani, commander of the Revolutionary Guard’s Basij paramilitary militia, in overnight targeted strikes on Tehran. Iran has neither confirmed nor denied either killing. President Trump told reporters it remains “unclear” whether Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is “dead or not” — he has made no public appearance since his appointment.
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Iran Strikes Dubai Airport and Fujairah Oil Port — UAE Airspace Closed
Iran launched a fresh wave of drone and missile attacks on the UAE, forcing a temporary closure of all UAE airspace. A drone ignited a fuel tank at Dubai International Airport (four staff injured), while a separate strike sparked a fire at the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone, suspending oil loadings. Falling interceptor debris killed a Pakistani national in Abu Dhabi. Qatar intercepted 13 of 14 Iranian ballistic missiles; Bahrain has neutralised 129 missiles and 221 drones since the conflict began.
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Trump Threatens to Leave NATO After Allies Refuse Hormuz Mission
Speaking alongside Irish Taoiseach Micheál Martin on St Patrick’s Day, Trump called NATO allies’ refusal to join the Hormuz mission “a very foolish mistake” and said the US should rethink its membership of the alliance. He then contradicted himself, declaring: “We do not need the help of anyone.” EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said there was “no appetite” for European military involvement; German Chancellor Merz stated: “NATO has no business being involved here.”
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Amnesty Confirms US Tomahawk Struck Minab Primary School
Amnesty International confirmed that a US-manufactured Tomahawk cruise missile struck a primary school in Minab, Iran on 28 February, killing at least 170 people — the majority schoolgirls aged 7–12. The rights group said the school was adjacent to but distinct from an IRGC compound, calling it “a serious violation of international humanitarian law” and “a shameful intelligence failure.” Iran has announced plans to develop the bombed site into a museum.
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Baghdad: Most Intense Embassy Attack Since War Began
Rockets and at least five drones targeted the US Embassy in Baghdad in what Iraqi security sources described as the most intense attack since the war began. Two booby-trapped drones landed within the embassy perimeter, sparking a visible fire. Separately, a strike on a house in Baghdad’s Jadriyah district — reportedly a headquarters for Iran-backed Popular Mobilisation Forces — killed four people.
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UK Domestic Politics
UK to Deploy Minesweeping Drones at Hormuz Instead of Warships
UK ministers confirmed plans to deploy the Royal Navy’s autonomous SWEEP minesweeping drones to the Strait of Hormuz rather than warships. The system, which entered service in July 2025, tows sensor boats that mimic naval signatures to trigger mines at safe distances. Starmer said the UK would be part of a “viable collective plan” to reopen the strait while insisting: “We will not be drawn into the wider war.”
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Energy Minister: “No Question” War Impacts UK Bills
Energy Minister Michael Shanks told the Energy Security Committee that there is “no question” the Middle East conflict “does have an impact on price” but offered “reassurance” that UK energy supplies remain secure. He acknowledged that removing policy costs from bills (currently £236 of the price cap) is “an avenue that we have to look at very carefully.” The government “stands ready to provide whatever support is needed to consumers.”
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Healey: Russia’s “Hidden Hand” Behind Iran’s Drone Tactics
Defence Secretary John Healey suggested Putin’s “hidden hand” is behind Iran’s drone warfare tactics. Lt Gen Nick Perry, chief of joint operations, told Healey there were “definitively” signs of a Russia–Iran tactical link, noting Iranian crews are flying drones “much lower” — a technique “learnt from Russians” in Ukraine. The UK is analysing an Iranian drone that struck RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus on 1 March for Russian components.
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BoE Rate Decision in Three Days — Markets Now Lean Towards Hold
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee meets Thursday with a Reuters poll still expecting a 25bp cut to 3.5%, but swap markets now favour a hold. Inflation sits at 3% (above the 2% target) and the war-driven oil shock has pushed fixed mortgage rates above 5%. Some 472 mortgage products have been withdrawn this week, with the best five-year fixes around 3.75%. The Fed’s own decision tomorrow will set the tone.
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Petrol Hits 140p as Forecourt Prices Reach 18-Month High
UK petrol prices rose to 140.3p per litre this week, the highest since August 2024, with diesel reaching 158.8p. The increases reflect a 40%+ surge in Brent crude since the war began on 28 February. Analysts warn of further rises as the typical two-week lag between wholesale and forecourt prices means the full impact of $103 oil has not yet hit the pumps.
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Morning Briefing
What It Means For You
- Petrol is up 3–5p/litre this month and likely to climb further — the April energy cap drop (saving ~£10/month) may be reversed by July if oil stays above $100; budget for higher transport and heating costs through spring
- Lenders are pulling mortgage deals daily (472 products withdrawn in a week) and the average two-year fix has breached 5% — Thursday’s BoE decision will set the tone, but waiting is unlikely to be rewarded
- Youth unemployment is at a decade high — the new Youth Guarantee scheme launches in April with £3,000 employer grants; details will be available through Jobcentres and local councils in six pilot areas first
Geopolitical
Israel Claims Killing of Iran’s De Facto Leader Ali Larijani in Overnight Strike
Israel’s Defence Minister announced overnight that the IDF killed Ali Larijani, Iran’s top security official and de facto ruler since the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on 28 February, in a targeted strike. The Israeli military also claimed to have killed Gholamreza Soleimani, commander of the Revolutionary Guard’s Basij force. Iran has not confirmed either death — a handwritten note was posted to Larijani’s X account shortly after the claim, though its timing and authorship remain unverified.
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Allies Rebuff Trump’s “Loyalty Test” on Hormuz Warships as Strait Remains Closed
President Trump recast his demand that allies send warships to the Strait of Hormuz as a “loyalty test” after Britain, Germany, Australia, Japan, and China all declined or stayed silent. “We will remember,” Trump warned, singling out PM Starmer by name. The strait remains effectively closed to Western-aligned shipping for a 17th consecutive day, with Iran’s foreign minister stating it is “only closed to our enemies.”
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Brent Crude Climbs Past $103 as Traders Eye $200 Scenario
Brent crude futures rose 2.7% to $103.14 on Monday morning, trading in a range of $100.75–$103.21 as the Hormuz closure enters its third week. The move extends a 40%+ surge since 28 February. Energy traders told CNBC they “wouldn’t be surprised” by $200/barrel if the crisis persists, citing the largest oil supply disruption in history — an estimated 8 million barrels per day lost.
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Israel Pushes South of the Litani as Lebanon Displacement Nears One Million
The IDF crossed into southern Lebanon on Sunday evening, launching what it described as a “targeted ground operation against key targets.” Infantry and armoured units, backed by air and artillery strikes, are pushing towards the Litani River. IDF spokesman Nadav Shoshani said operations would continue for “at least three more weeks.” The war has killed over 886 people in Lebanon and displaced nearly one million — 19% of the country’s population.
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Ukraine Becomes the Gulf’s Drone Defence Consultant
Ukraine is leveraging its world-leading drone warfare expertise to help Gulf states defend against Iranian Shahed attacks, with President Zelenskyy dispatching military experts to sell interceptor drones to more than ten countries. The US — which cut off military aid to Ukraine under Trump — has itself asked Kyiv for help protecting its Gulf bases. Ukraine intercepted 90% of the 1,250 Russian drones launched against it last week, a track record that makes its counter-drone systems the most combat-tested in the world.
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UK Domestic Politics
Starmer Defies Trump — “We Will Not Be Drawn Into a Wider War”
Prime Minister Keir Starmer confirmed that the UK will not join the US-Israeli war on Iran, directly rejecting President Trump’s demand for British warships at the Strait of Hormuz. “It is for me to act in what I consider to be the best interests of Britain,” Starmer said at a Downing Street press conference, while announcing the UK is working with allies on a “viable collective plan” to reopen the strait using mine-hunting drones already deployed in the region. Trump responded that he was “not happy.”
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Bank of England Faces Impossible Choice on Thursday
The Monetary Policy Committee meets Thursday with markets split on whether rates stay at 3.75% or are cut to 3.5%. Since February’s finely balanced decision (five voted to hold, four to cut), surging oil prices have pushed swap rates sharply higher. Lenders including HSBC, Nationwide, and Coventry Building Society have raised fixed-rate mortgages, with the average two-year fix hitting 5.01% on 11 March. Some 472 mortgage products — 6.5% of the market — have been withdrawn since 9 March.
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Government Launches £1bn Youth Jobs Drive as Unemployment Hits Decade High
Work and Pensions Secretary Pat McFadden formally launched a £1 billion Youth Guarantee programme aimed at creating 200,000 jobs and apprenticeships for 18–24 year olds. Employers will receive a £3,000 Youth Jobs Grant for each young person hired from Universal Credit, with an additional £2,000 for SMEs taking on apprentices aged 16–24. A pilot launches in April across six areas before national rollout later in 2026, targeting 739,000 unemployed young people — a 16% youth unemployment rate.
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Petrol Prices Rise 3–5p as Iran War Hits the Forecourt
UK petrol prices have risen 3–5p per litre over the past month, with unleaded averaging 142.3p/litre and diesel at 162.1p as the Iran–Hormuz crisis feeds through to the pump. Fuel industry analysts say prices are likely to rise further, with a typical lag between wholesale and forecourt movements meaning the worst is yet to come. Starmer’s £53 million heating oil support package provides some relief, but covers only the most vulnerable via local authority distribution.
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Grenfell Memorial Bill Fast-Tracked Through Commons
The Grenfell Tower Memorial (Expenditure) Bill was fast-tracked through all its Commons stages in a single day, with a four-hour debate covering second reading, committee, and third reading. The Bill authorises public funding to build and maintain a permanent memorial at the Grenfell Tower site, a second site where the tower will be laid to rest, and an archive with permanent exhibition. Cross-party support was overwhelming, though bereaved families have raised concerns about the decision not to preserve tower elements.
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Evening Briefing
What It Means For You
- Brent crude eased to $102 after hitting $106 this morning — RAC still forecasts petrol at 142p/litre within days; fill up now if your tank is low
- Starmer announces £53m heating oil support for 1.5 million vulnerable households — check eligibility if you use oil heating, especially in Northern Ireland
- Bank of England rate decision on Thursday; markets now evenly split on a cut to 3.5% — tracker mortgage holders should budget for either outcome
Geopolitical
Israel Expands Ground Offensive in Lebanon as Abu Dhabi Casualty Confirmed
Israel announced it is “expanding” its ground offensive in southern Lebanon, deploying two additional divisions to join the three already operating across the border. Troops from the 91st Division entered five towns including Kfar Kila, Yaroun and Khiam. More than 800,000 people have been displaced from southern Lebanon, with at least 850 killed including 107 children. In the Gulf, one person was confirmed killed by an Iranian missile in Al Bahyah, Abu Dhabi, taking the UAE’s total death toll to seven with 142 injuries.
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Trump Demands Allied Warships for Hormuz — Nobody Answers
President Trump called on seven nations to send warships to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, through which 13 million barrels of oil passed daily before the conflict. None have publicly committed. Japan’s PM Takaichi told parliament Tokyo is “not planning to deploy”; Germany’s Defence Minister Pistorius insisted “this is not our war.” Starmer responded that the UK “will not be drawn into the wider war” but is “working with allies” on a plan. Energy Secretary Miliband said London is exploring deploying unmanned mine-sweeping systems.
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Brent Crude Eases Below $103 as Bessent Signals Partial Strait Access
Brent crude fell roughly $4 to $102 per barrel after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated some Iranian tankers were being permitted through the Strait of Hormuz. Tanker traffic remains down 70 per cent, with over 150 vessels anchored outside the strait. The ADNOC Ruwais refinery in Abu Dhabi — capacity 922,000 barrels per day — remains shut after a drone strike caused a major fire. Iran claims it has fired approximately 700 missiles and 3,600 drones since hostilities began.
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Ukraine Leverages Drone Expertise to Help Gulf Allies Counter Iran
Ukraine is leveraging its battle-tested drone expertise to help the US and Gulf allies counter Iranian UAVs, positioning itself as an indispensable Western partner even as its own war grinds on. Russia has assisted Tehran with drone tactics informed by its own use of Iranian-designed Shahed UAVs against Ukrainian cities. On the battlefield, February became the first month since 2024 when Ukraine regained more territory than it lost, with Russian forces losing 57 square miles over four weeks.
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Trump Pivots to Section 301 Tariffs After Supreme Court Blocks IEEPA Levies
After the US Supreme Court ruled on 20 February that the President cannot use IEEPA to impose tariffs, the Trump administration launched Section 301 trade investigations targeting the EU, China, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, India and Taiwan. A blanket 10 per cent tariff remains on all trading partners. The Tax Foundation estimates the tariff regime amounts to the largest US tax increase as a percentage of GDP since 1993, costing the average American household $1,500 in 2026.
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UK Domestic Politics
Starmer Announces £53m Heating Oil Support as Costs Double
At a Downing Street press conference, PM Keir Starmer announced £53 million in emergency support for 1.5 million vulnerable households reliant on heating oil, which is not covered by the energy price cap. In Northern Ireland, where 62 per cent of homes use oil heating, the cost of 900 litres surged from £537 on 26 February to £1,037 by 12 March. The Government has also capped energy bills until June (saving average households £117), extended the fuel duty cut to September, and released emergency oil stocks at “unprecedented” levels.
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Bank of England Decision Looms Thursday: Markets Split on Rate Cut
The Monetary Policy Committee meets Thursday with markets evenly split on whether rates will be cut from 3.75 to 3.5 per cent. The February vote was 5–4 to hold, with minutes describing the decision as “finely balanced.” However, the oil shock has complicated the picture: UK CPI stands at 3.0 per cent, and Bloomberg noted traders have swung from pricing in cuts to betting on rate hikes as oil passed $100. The OBR cut 2026 GDP growth from 1.4 to 1.1 per cent.
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Government Launches £1bn Youth Jobs Scheme as Unemployment Hits 16.1%
Unemployment among 16–24 year olds has reached 16.1 per cent — nearly 957,000 young people — the highest rate in a decade and the first time UK youth unemployment has overtaken the EU average of 14.7 per cent. The Government announced a £1 billion Youth Jobs Grant aiming to create 200,000 positions. Businesses will receive £3,000 for each 18–24 year old hired who has been searching for work for six months or more. SMEs will be offered £2,000 per new apprentice.
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Immigration Overhaul: Refugees Face 20-Year Path to Settlement
From 2 March 2026, successful asylum claimants now receive temporary protection status renewable every 30 months, replacing the previous five-year route to Indefinite Leave to Remain. Refugees become eligible for settlement only after 20 years, though a “work and study” route could reduce this to 10 years. The Home Affairs Select Committee has warned the retrospective application to those already resident is legally contentious. Most routes will require B2-level English from March 2027.
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Grenfell Memorial Bill Passes All Commons Stages
The Grenfell Tower Memorial (Expenditure) Bill passed all Commons stages today in a single four-hour sitting, authorising public funds to build a permanent memorial to the 72 people who died in the 2017 fire. The site, covering just under 3,000 square metres including the tower footprint and adjacent land, will be transferred to a body determined by the Grenfell community. Parts of the tower structure will be preserved and archived.
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Morning Briefing
What It Means For You
- Brent crude surges past $106 — petrol expected to breach 145p/litre this week; filling a 55-litre tank now costs roughly £80, up £6 in a fortnight
- Bank of England rate decision on Thursday; markets pricing a hold at 3.75% — tracker mortgage holders should not expect relief this month
- Defence spending acceleration squeezes other budgets — NHS and schools face near-flat real-terms growth from 2027; public sector workers may see pay restraint
Geopolitical
Trump Warns NATO of ‘Very Bad Future’ Over Hormuz Impasse
President Trump told the Financial Times that NATO faces a “very bad” future if allies refuse to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz. He singled out Keir Starmer, saying Britain “didn’t want to come” when asked. Trump also threatened to delay his planned summit with Xi Jinping, noting China receives 90 per cent of its oil through the strait.
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Iran Fires Multiple Missile Salvos at Central Israel on Day 17
Sirens blared across central Israel on Sunday as Iran launched seven ballistic missile barrages in its most intense retaliatory strikes since the conflict began on 28 February. Three people were wounded in Eilat. Simultaneously, US and Israeli forces struck Isfahan, killing at least 15 people. The IDF confirmed it is preparing for at least three further weeks of operations.
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Brent Crude Surges Past $106 as Hormuz Shipping Stalls
Oil prices climbed above $106 per barrel overnight, the highest since July 2022, as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to Western shipping. Nearly 1,000 tankers are stranded. US petrol prices have risen 24 per cent since the war began, averaging $3.70 per gallon. The IEA’s record 400-million-barrel reserve release has failed to stabilise markets.
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Tehran Rejects Ceasefire as Foreign Minister Vows Long War
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi rejected Donald Trump’s claim that Tehran was ready “to make a deal”, telling reporters that Iran “never asked for a ceasefire” and is prepared for a prolonged conflict. Mojtaba Khamenei, elected supreme leader on 8 March after his father’s assassination, has vowed to continue blocking the strait.
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EU Extends Russia Sanctions as Ukrainian Front Lines Stabilise
The European Union unanimously renewed sanctions against roughly 2,600 Russian-linked individuals and entities until September. On the battlefield, Russia has lost 57 square miles of Ukrainian territory over the past four weeks — its worst run since autumn 2024. Total Russian casualties have reached approximately 1,279,170 since February 2022.
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UK Domestic Politics
Healey Faces Commons Questions on Middle East Military Build-Up
Defence Secretary John Healey will face MPs’ questions this afternoon on Britain’s expanding military footprint in the Middle East. The RAF has deployed four additional Typhoon fighters and four helicopters to Cyprus, with 400 extra personnel reinforcing the sovereign bases. More than 230 hours of RAF flights have been conducted since January.
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Grenfell Memorial Bill Fast-Tracked Through All Commons Stages
The Grenfell Tower Memorial (Expenditure) Bill will pass all Commons stages today in a single four-hour sitting, authorising public funds for a permanent memorial to the 72 people who died in the 2017 fire. The Bill also provides for preserving and archiving parts of the tower. The Ministerial Salaries (Amendment) Bill is being similarly fast-tracked.
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End of Life Bill Enters Pivotal Lords Committee Stage
Detailed scrutiny of the Terminally Ill Adults (End of Life) Bill continues in the House of Lords this week, following Friday’s extended sitting. Peers are debating whether palliative care assessments should be mandatory before assisted dying is permitted. The Bill carries a record number of amendments and must pass before the parliamentary session ends in May.
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Davey Calls for Independent British Nuclear Deterrent
Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey used his spring conference speech to demand the Government begin work on a fully independent British nuclear capability, ending reliance on American-manufactured Trident missiles. Davey warned that the UK’s deterrent “ultimately rests on the goodwill of whoever occupies the Oval Office” — an unacceptable risk under Trump.
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Bank of England Set to Hold Rates at 3.75% on Thursday
Markets price a 70 per cent probability that the Bank of England will hold its base rate at 3.75 per cent when the Monetary Policy Committee meets on Thursday. The February vote was split 5–4, with four members favouring a cut. CPI inflation stood at 3.0 per cent in January, down from 3.4 per cent in December, but the oil shock has clouded the outlook.
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Morning Briefing
What It Means For You
- Petrol averaging 136p/litre but heating oil has doubled in a fortnight — rural households now paying £1,322 for 1,000 litres, up from £592 before the war began
- Energy price cap set to rise 10% to £1,801 in July; analysts warn bills could reach £2,500 if Hormuz disruption persists — consider fixing your tariff now
- F1 cancellations in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia signal growing disruption to Gulf travel and events — check insurance cover for Middle East destinations
Geopolitical
B-52s and F-35s Strike Isfahan and Shiraz in Heaviest Overnight Raids
American B-52 bombers and Israeli F-35s launched the war’s most intense overnight campaign, hitting military targets across Isfahan, Shiraz, southern Tehran, Dezful and Hamedan. At least 15 people were killed. The IDF confirmed strikes on IRGC headquarters, Basij militia bases and a rocket-engine production facility in Isfahan. Twenty explosions were heard near Shiraz alone.
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Trump Demands Multinational Fleet to Force Open Strait of Hormuz
President Trump called on China, France, Japan, South Korea and Britain to send warships to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 per cent of global oil normally transits. The US is deploying 2,500 Marines and the USS Tripoli to reinforce its Gulf presence. A Pentagon official conceded the military is “not ready” to escort commercial tankers through the strait.
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North Korea Fires Ten Ballistic Missiles During US-South Korea Drills
Pyongyang launched approximately ten ballistic missiles from the Sunan area toward the East Sea, with projectiles travelling 350 kilometres. Kim Jong Un oversaw a separate test of twelve 600mm nuclear-capable multiple rocket launchers. The launches coincide with the Freedom Shield exercises involving 18,000 troops, running until 19 March.
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Formula 1 Cancels Bahrain and Saudi Grands Prix Over Gulf Security
Formula 1 confirmed the cancellation of both the Bahrain and Saudi Arabian rounds scheduled for April, reducing the 2026 calendar to 22 races. Both countries have been struck by Iranian retaliatory attacks. CEO Stefano Domenicali called it “unfortunately the right” decision. The cancellations leave a five-week gap before the Miami Grand Prix on 3 May.
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EU Opens Backdoor Diplomacy With Tehran as War Enters Day 16
France and Italy have begun discreet negotiations with Iran, according to the Financial Times, in the first significant European diplomatic initiative since the conflict began on 28 February. The talks focus on humanitarian corridors and a potential ceasefire framework. Separately, Iran’s war dead have passed 1,444, with 18,551 wounded and 825 killed in Israeli strikes on Lebanon.
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UK Domestic Politics
Al Quds Day Protests Proceed in London Despite March Ban
Thousands gathered for static demonstrations in central London after the Home Secretary banned the annual Al Quds Day march — the first such order since 2012. Pro-Iran protesters assembled at Albert Embankment whilst counter-protesters gathered on Millbank. The Metropolitan Police deployed significant resources to maintain separation. Protesters also condemned Israel’s closure of Al-Aqsa Mosque.
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Energy Price Cap to Surge 10% to £1,801 in July
Ofgem analysts project the energy price cap will rise to £1,801 per household from July, a 10 per cent increase on the £1,641 April level. The Government is cutting levies worth £130 from April bills, but this will be overwhelmed by the oil shock. The Treasury is considering targeted support for vulnerable households when the current cap expires in June.
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Petrol Prices Rise Fastest Since 2022 as Heating Oil Doubles
Average unleaded petrol reached 135.67p per litre, up 3.5p in a week, with diesel at 149p. Heating oil costs have doubled in a fortnight: a 1,000-litre order now costs £1,322, up from £592 before the conflict. Bloomberg reported UK petrol prices have risen at their fastest rate since the 2022 energy crisis. Rural households reliant on oil heating are worst affected.
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Labour Polls at 20% With 37 Councils Projected to Change Hands
Ward-level modelling by PollCheck projects 37 councils will change control on 7 May, with Labour facing its heaviest losses in northern metropolitan boroughs including Tameside, Stockport and Bolton. The party polled 35 per cent when these seats were last contested; it now polls around 20 per cent. Reform UK is projected to take control in Essex, Norfolk and Suffolk.
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Electoral Commission to Draft Campaign Code Ahead of May Elections
The Electoral Commission has agreed to work with the Government, Speaker and opposition parties to develop a campaigning code of conduct, aiming to have draft principles in place before May. The move follows concerns about candidate safety and disinformation. Separately, the Government responded to the Speaker’s Conference reports on the security of MPs and candidates.
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Evening Briefing
What It Means For You
- Brent crude holding above $103; RAC forecasts petrol to hit 142p/litre within days — fill up now if your tank is low
- VIX volatility index surged 8.5% to 29.49 — pension and ISA holders should expect further short-term portfolio swings
- Bank of England rate decision on Thursday; markets now pricing a hold at 3.75% as inflation risks from oil shock cloud the outlook
Geopolitical
Israel Denies Interceptor Shortage as Iran Missile Barrages Intensify
The IDF denied reports that Israel is running critically low on missile interceptors, hours after approving an emergency NIS 2.6 billion defence procurement. Semafor reported US officials confirmed the shortage. Iran fired seven missile salvos at Israeli cities on Sunday, wounding three in Eilat including a child. Tehran is now deploying cluster munitions to overwhelm air defences.
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Trump Says Iran ‘Wants a Deal’ but Terms Not Good Enough
President Trump told NBC News that Iran “wants to make a deal” but that he is “not ready” because terms are insufficient. Tehran swiftly denied requesting any ceasefire, with Foreign Minister Araghchi declaring Iran “ready to defend as long as it takes”. He added that Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium is buried “under the rubble” with no plans to recover it.
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Ukraine Strikes Russian Oil Refinery as EU Renews Sanctions
Ukraine’s forces struck the Afipsky oil refinery and Port Kavkaz in Russia’s Krasnodar region on Saturday. Russia responded with 68 missiles and 430 drones targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure, killing six in the Zaporizhia and Kyiv regions. The EU voted to extend sanctions against 2,600 Russian-linked individuals and entities until September.
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North Korea Tests Ten Ballistic Missiles During US-South Korea Drills
Pyongyang launched approximately ten ballistic missiles from Sunan toward the East Sea, travelling 350 kilometres. Kim Jong Un separately oversaw a test of twelve 600mm nuclear-capable rocket launchers. The provocations coincide with Freedom Shield exercises involving 18,000 troops, running until 19 March.
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Iran Vows to Kill Netanyahu as Gulf War Toll Passes 2,250
Iran’s IRGC publicly threatened to assassinate Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, marking a significant rhetorical escalation. The combined death toll across Iran, Lebanon and the wider region has surpassed 2,250 since 28 February. In Lebanon alone, 850 have been killed since Israeli strikes began on 2 March. Thirteen US service members have died.
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UK Domestic Politics
Hundreds Defy Al Quds March Ban in London; Arrests Made
Hundreds of pro-Palestinian demonstrators gathered in central London despite the Home Secretary’s ban on the Al Quds Day march — the first such order since 2012. Police permitted static protests: pro-Iran groups assembled at Albert Embankment whilst counter-demonstrators waved US and Israeli flags on Millbank. Several arrests were made, including for refusing to remove face coverings.
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Mandelson Files Reveal ‘Reputational Risk’ Warnings to Starmer
The first tranche of 147 pages covering Lord Mandelson’s appointment as US ambassador was published on Tuesday. Documents show officials warned Starmer of “reputational risk” from Mandelson’s continued relationship with Jeffrey Epstein between 2009 and 2011. National Security Adviser Jonathan Powell described the appointment as “weirdly rushed”. Mandelson received £75,000 in severance.
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Farm Inheritance Tax Relief Raised to £2.5 Million After Protests
The Government announced the combined Agricultural Property Relief and Business Property Relief threshold will rise from the originally proposed £1 million to £2.5 million from 6 April. Individual farmers can now pass on up to £2.825 million tax-free; couples can shelter £5 million. Inheritance tax above the threshold will attract 50 per cent relief. Payment may be spread over ten years interest-free.
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Defence Spending Pledge Reaches 2.6% of GDP by 2027
Rachel Reeves reiterated the Government’s commitment to raise defence spending to 2.6 per cent of GDP by 2027, equivalent to £36 billion or £500 per person annually. An additional £650 million was committed in January. The long-term target remains 3.5 per cent by 2035, driven by the Iran conflict and the continuing threat from Russia.
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Immigration Overhaul Delayed to Autumn as ILR Period Doubles
The Home Office confirmed that plans to double the qualifying period for indefinite leave to remain from five to ten years will now take effect in autumn 2026, delayed from April. The change affects most work and long-term visa routes. Separately, new rules ban citizens of Afghanistan, Cameroon, Myanmar and Sudan from certain visa categories under a “visa brake” policy.
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Weekly Roundup
View roundup
The Week In Numbers
- Brent crude surged from $88 to $103 per barrel — a 17 per cent rise in four trading days as the Hormuz blockade tightened and Iran expanded attacks to the UAE’s Fujairah oil hub
- The IEA released a record 400 million barrels of emergency oil stocks — three times the previous record — yet prices continued to climb, signalling the market judges the intervention insufficient
- UK GDP flatlined for a sixth consecutive month as the OBR halved its 2026 growth forecast to 1.1 per cent; unemployment reached 5.2 per cent, the highest in five years
↑ What Moved Forward
Ukraine–US Peace Framework Nears Completion
GeopoliticalPresidents Trump and Zelenskyy confirmed agreement on 90–95 per cent of a ceasefire framework following marathon talks in Jeddah — the most concrete diplomatic advance since the 2022 Istanbul negotiations. Ukraine simultaneously recaptured 244 square kilometres while Russian territorial gains fell to a 20-month low, strengthening Kyiv’s negotiating hand.
Hereditary Peers Bill Clears Final Hurdle
DomesticParliament’s biggest constitutional reform in a generation passed its final stage this week. Up to 92 hereditary peers will leave the House of Lords after 700 years, completing a process first attempted a quarter of a century ago. Royal assent is expected imminently.
GCC States Unite at UN Security Council
GeopoliticalAll six Gulf Cooperation Council states submitted a joint resolution demanding Iran cease attacks on neighbouring countries — a rare display of unity from monarchies that seldom act in concert on military matters. Qatar and Oman retain diplomatic channels with Tehran, positioning themselves as potential mediators.
Employment Rights Act Reforms Confirmed for April
DomesticThe most significant expansion of workers’ rights in a generation takes effect on 6 April: statutory sick pay from day one, zero-hours contract protections, and day-one paternity leave for 1.3 million low-paid workers previously excluded.
• What Stalled
Bank of England Rate Cuts Effectively Shelved
MarketsThree weeks ago a March cut was near-certain. The oil shock has inverted the calculus entirely: markets now price just a 28 per cent chance of a cut on Thursday. With inflation at 3.0 per cent and oil above $100, the easing cycle may not resume until 2027 — trapping homeowners in higher repayments even as the economy stagnates.
Russia Blocks Ukraine Ceasefire Despite Framework
GeopoliticalPutin told the US envoy there were “issues to resolve” and launched 559 drones and missiles at Kyiv hours later. Moscow’s calculus is transparent: the Iran war boosts Russian oil revenues above budget assumptions while consuming American diplomatic bandwidth. The longer the Gulf conflict persists, the further Ukraine recedes from Western attention.
Labour Immigration Reforms Delayed by Rebellion
DomesticMore than 100 Labour MPs — a quarter of the parliamentary party — revolted against sweeping immigration changes, forcing the Government to delay new settlement rules from April to autumn. The 20-year wait for indefinite leave to remain remains the most contentious element. It is the largest internal challenge of Starmer’s premiership.
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Bank of England Rate Decision — Thursday 19 March
MarketsThe MPC meets with the worst set of cross-currents in years: six months of zero growth arguing for stimulus, yet an oil-driven inflation surge demanding restraint. The vote split was 5–4 in February. A hold is expected, but the accompanying statement will be parsed for any signal on the easing timeline.
Trump’s Coalition Flotilla — Who Signs Up?
GeopoliticalThe President has named Britain, France, Japan, South Korea and China as desired participants in a multinational fleet to force Hormuz open. No country has publicly committed. Starmer faces acute pressure: joining risks deeper entanglement; refusing risks the transatlantic relationship at a moment of economic vulnerability.
Al Quds Day Protests — Sunday 15 March
DomesticThe Home Secretary’s ban on the Al Quds march — the first march prohibition since 2012 — faces a legal challenge. Organisers plan a static protest regardless. Counter-demonstrations have been announced. The Metropolitan Police warns of a “robust response” to any march attempt, with community tensions at their highest since the Iran conflict began.
Petrol Prices Set to Breach 150p
DomesticWith Brent above $103 and the Hormuz blockade entering its third week, forecourt prices are on track to exceed 145p per litre nationally. The RAC estimates an average fill will cost £80. The Chancellor confirmed that the 15-year fuel duty freeze ends in September, adding further pressure later in the year.
Evening Briefing
What It Means For You
- Brent crude surges past $103 as Trump calls for a multinational warship coalition — petrol prices likely to breach 145p/litre next week; an average fill now costs £80
- FTSE 100 slides to 10,226, its lowest close since early February — pension and ISA holders face a third consecutive week of losses driven by the energy crisis
- Bank of England rate decision on Thursday now expected to be a hold at 3.75% — mortgage holders should budget for unchanged repayments into the summer as inflation pressures build
Geopolitical
Trump Demands Multinational Warship Fleet to Reopen Hormuz
President Trump announced that “many countries” will send warships to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, naming China, France, Japan, South Korea and Britain as desired participants. He vowed the US would “bomb the hell out of the shoreline” and continue destroying Iranian vessels. The Pentagon confirmed the USS Tripoli and its Marine expeditionary unit are deploying to the Gulf.
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Iran Strikes UAE as IRGC Declares US Interests ‘Legitimate Targets’
UAE air defences intercepted nine ballistic missiles and 33 drones launched from Iran on Saturday. A fire broke out at the Fujairah oil terminal, one of the world’s largest bunkering hubs. The IRGC warned that all US interests in the UAE — including ports, docks and military installations — are now legitimate targets and urged civilians to evacuate those areas.
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Brent Crude Breaks $103 as Hormuz Blockade Enters Third Week
Oil prices surged past $103 per barrel — the highest since July 2022 — as the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz entered its third week. Goldman Sachs warned Brent could reach $135 if the strait remains shut for four months. The IEA’s record 400-million-barrel reserve release has failed to arrest the rise, with traders judging the volumes insufficient against an 8-million-barrel daily deficit.
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Ukraine Strikes Russian Electronics Plant Making Missile Components
Ukrainian forces used Storm Shadow missiles to destroy a Russian plant producing microchips and high-end electronics for cruise missiles. Separately, Ukraine claimed a “successful” strike on two Russian ships ferrying weapons through the Kerch Strait. Russian casualties now exceed 1.28 million since February 2022, with 860 killed or wounded in the past 24 hours.
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Iran Death Toll Reaches 1,444 on Day 15 of US-Israel Campaign
Iran’s Health Ministry reported 1,444 killed and 18,551 injured since the conflict began on 28 February. Israeli attacks have killed at least 773 people in Lebanon since 2 March. Australia ordered all non-essential officials to leave the UAE and Israel and urged citizens to evacuate the wider Middle East region.
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UK Domestic Politics
Starmer Faces Pressure to Join Hormuz Warship Coalition
Trump’s call for Britain to send warships to the Strait of Hormuz places fresh pressure on Keir Starmer, who has confined UK involvement to defensive RAF sorties and base access. Defence sources said the Royal Navy has a frigate and destroyer in the region but no decision has been taken on committing to a coalition. Shadow defence secretary James Cartlidge urged the Government to “step up”.
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Immigration Rebels Force Government to Review Settlement Timetable
The Government confirmed that new “earned settlement” rules — requiring up to 20 years for refugees to gain indefinite leave to remain — will be delayed from April to autumn 2026 following pressure from more than 100 Labour MPs. The Home Affairs Committee published its report criticising the reforms as “disproportionate”. Immigration minister Seema Malhotra said transitional arrangements are “under review”.
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Al Quds March Ban Faces Legal Challenge Ahead of Tomorrow’s Protest
The Islamic Human Rights Commission confirmed it will legally challenge the Home Secretary’s ban on the Al Quds Day march — the first march prohibition since 2012. The ban covers central London until 11 April. Organisers said a static protest will proceed on Sunday regardless. The Metropolitan Police warned that any march would be met with “a robust response”.
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Reform UK Set to Win Most Council Seats Nationally in May Elections
Bookmakers now price Reform UK at 3/10 to win the most council seats in the 7 May local elections, an implied probability above 75 per cent. Farage has committed £5 million to the campaign. Reform is projected to take control of county councils in Essex, Norfolk and Suffolk. Labour, which won 35 per cent when these seats were last fought, now polls around 20 per cent.
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Bank of England Rate Decision Looms as Oil Shock Stalls Easing Cycle
Markets now price only a 28 per cent chance of a rate cut when the MPC meets on Thursday, down from near-certainty before the Iran conflict. The February vote split 5–4 for holding at 3.75 per cent. Economists warn that oil above $100 could add a full percentage point to inflation, potentially delaying cuts into 2027 and adding £500 to the typical household energy bill.
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Morning Briefing
What It Means For You
- Brent crude holds above $101 for a fourth day; petrol averaging 141p/litre but forecourt premiums in the South East reaching 155p — expect further rises as the Hormuz blockade enters its third week
- Bank of England rate decision on Thursday now a near-certain hold at 3.75% — tracker mortgage holders face at least another quarter of unchanged repayments as the oil shock clouds the inflation outlook
- IEA releases a record 400 million barrels of emergency oil stocks — designed to cap pump prices but analysts warn the buffer may last only weeks if Hormuz shipping does not resume
Geopolitical
US Bombs Kharg Island Military Targets; Warns Oil Facilities Next
American forces struck every military installation on Iran’s Kharg Island, through which 90 per cent of Tehran’s crude exports pass. President Trump said oil infrastructure was deliberately spared but warned it “may be next” if Iran continues to block the Strait of Hormuz. The Pentagon confirmed the strikes degraded air defences and missile batteries.
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Iran Fires Missiles at Tel Aviv; Smoke Rises Over Israel’s Commercial Hub
The IRGC launched a fresh salvo of ballistic missiles and drones at Israel in coordination with Hezbollah. Smoke was visible over two locations around Tel Aviv after blasts were heard. Israel’s military said most projectiles were intercepted but acknowledged “limited impacts” in the greater Tel Aviv area.
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IEA Releases Record 400m Barrels as Oil Crisis Enters Third Week
The International Energy Agency agreed to release 400 million barrels of emergency oil stocks — the largest such action in its history — as global supply falls by an estimated 8 million barrels per day. Brent crude held above $101. Canada contributed 23.6 million barrels as part of the coordinated effort.
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Hegseth Claims Iran’s Supreme Leader ‘Wounded and Disfigured’
US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth said he believes Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran’s new supreme leader, is “wounded and likely disfigured”. The State Department offered a $10 million reward for information on Khamenei and other senior officials. Khamenei’s first public statement vowed continued attacks until US bases in the region are closed.
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Ukraine Recovers 244 sq km as Russian Territorial Gains Hit 20-Month Low
Ukrainian forces have recaptured 244 square kilometres in southern Ukraine since January, while Russian territorial gains in February fell to a 20-month low. Russia lost 30 square miles in the past week. Separately, Presidents Trump and Zelenskyy confirmed agreement on 90–95 per cent of a peace framework.
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UK Domestic Politics
Bank of England Rate Hold Expected as Oil Shock Clouds Outlook
Markets now price only a 28 per cent chance of a rate cut when the MPC meets on Thursday, down from 90 per cent before the Iran conflict. The February vote was finely balanced at 5–4. Economists warn that sustained oil prices above $100 could add a full percentage point to inflation, delaying the easing cycle into 2027.
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More Than 100 Labour MPs Revolt Over Immigration Reforms
A quarter of the parliamentary Labour party has signed a letter urging Starmer to rethink sweeping immigration changes, including a 20-year wait for indefinite leave to remain and 30-month reassessments for refugees. Home Secretary Mahmood announced a £40,000 voluntary departure scheme for rejected asylum seekers. The Government insists “there is absolutely no change whatsoever”.
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Labour Braces for Local Election Losses as Reform Surges
With 4,850 council seats contested on 7 May, Labour faces projected heavy losses concentrated in northern metropolitan boroughs. The party polled 35 per cent when these seats were last fought in 2022; it now polls around 20 per cent. Reform UK is projected to take control of county councils in Essex, Norfolk and Suffolk.
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Defence Spending to Rise to 2.5% of GDP by 2027 as OBR Backs Increase
The OBR designated the defence spending increase as a fiscal necessity in its Spring Forecast, backing a path to 2.5 per cent of GDP by 2027 and 3.5 per cent by 2035. Defence expenditure will rise from £62.2 billion this year to £73.5 billion by 2028–29. NATO allies agreed a new 3.5 per cent minimum target at the 2025 summit.
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NHS Waiting List Falls for Third Month to 7.25 Million
The NHS waiting list in England dropped to 7.25 million treatments in January, the lowest level since February 2023. Winter waiting times were the shortest in four years. However, only 38 per cent of trusts are on track to meet the Government’s March interim target of 65 per cent of patients treated within 18 weeks.