The Daily Brief — UK & World News, Curated Morning and Evening

☀️

Morning Briefing

Saturday 31 October 2026 — 07:55 GMT

What It Means For You

If you hold savings outside an ISA or let out property: from 6 April 2027 the tax on that income rises to 24%, 44% or 49% depending on your band — four points above the rates on earnings. The official estimate is that about 12% of taxpayers pay an average of £113 a year more, and that a basic-rate taxpayer would need over £150,000 in savings at 4% before paying any tax on interest.
If you have an anxious pet tonight: nothing has changed in the law yet. A government consultation closed this month proposing that the loudest fireworks be sold only to professionals and that the consumer noise limit fall from 120 to 110 decibels, roughly halving loudness. A complete ban on public sales has been ruled out, and any change comes with a six-month transition.
If you are on a hosepipe ban or near a reservoir: the wettest week in two years has not ended the drought. Most of England and Wales remain in drought, parts of Cornwall, Devon, Dorset, Somerset and Sussex are in severe drought, and up to ten dry days are now forecast. This is England’s third drought in five years.

GEO Geopolitical

America Approves 500 Patriots That May Take Years to Arrive

The State Department has cleared the sale of 500 PAC-3 interceptor missiles to Ukraine at a cost of $2.1bn, the one weapon that reliably downs Russian ballistic missiles. President Zelensky welcomed the decision and then warned that deliveries may begin, in his words, “only in a few years”. The statement gave no delivery date.

Dive deeper

The gap between an approval and a delivery is the whole story here. This is a proposed foreign military sale of weapons that have not been built: the department says no American funds are involved, the cost being met by Canada, Germany and Norway through an allied programme and by national funds drawn on a European loan to Ukraine. Two people briefed on the decision told news agencies the missiles are not expected to arrive until a couple of years into the 2030s. Mr Zelensky’s counter-proposal is specific and is the part worth watching: that America and European allies hold enough Patriot interceptors in stock to hand over now, and replenish them later through contracts Ukraine and its partners have already paid for — which he called “the right approach” and “entirely feasible”. He says Ukraine waited almost a month for sign-off while running critically low. The urgency is not abstract: a Russian drone strike on a crowded rail platform in Dnipro killed at least fourteen people on Thursday, and a missile killed one in Kyiv that evening.

Poland’s President Forces His Way Into the Constitutional Court

Judges elected by the current parliamentary majority moved to suspend the Constitutional Tribunal’s president and vice-president and take procedural control of the court. Riot police were deployed in Warsaw, three people were detained, and the head of state turned his plane around mid-flight, pushed through the police cordon after midnight and was still inside the building at four in the morning.

Dive deeper

Whether any of this is lawful is genuinely unsettled, and experts are deeply divided, so this edition reports the split rather than adjudicating it. Separately from the suspension, the justice minister has asked for the two men’s immunity to be lifted so criminal charges can be brought. The judge placed in temporary charge is one of five the president has refused to swear in, which is the legitimacy problem in miniature. The prime minister, who returned promising to undo his predecessors’ reshaping of the courts, called it a duty: “After years of Law and Justice’s lawlessness, this is a difficult, sometimes painful process that requires decisive action. There is no other way.” The tribunal’s own account is that those involved are “committing the crime of a coup d’etat”. The sharpest verdict comes from a law professor who is no friend of the suspended president, calling the legal basis “non-existent” and warning that the day “buries this body and the issue of the rule of law for two decades”. European courts have twice found the tribunal improperly constituted. Elections come next year.

Half the Record Crypto Theft Frozen as Investigators Close In

The exchange that lost $6.3bn this week says it has frozen about half the stolen funds and set aside more than that sum of its own money to cover customers. The US Secret Service says it is working around the clock to trace and recover the assets. The breach was wider than first disclosed.

Dive deeper

Two things have changed since we reported the theft itself. The recovery is real and quantified — roughly $3bn of the $6.3bn secured, more than $6.34bn of company funds set aside, and the Secret Service pledging to “identify, freeze, trace, and recover” the money and bring those responsible to justice, with the FBI also involved. And the attack was bigger than the first account suggested: the co-chief executive now says it was “not carried out by one person”, that an initial theory of one compromised laptop gave way to “additional points of breach”, and that the intruders ran “a self-destruct mechanism that destroyed tooling and traces as they went”. Attribution stays hedged, as it should: one analysis firm reports “high confidence” of a North Korean link, another says elements merely “resembled” earlier incidents, and Pyongyang has always denied such claims. The reason it matters beyond crypto is that America, South Korea and Japan this week restated a ban on revenue reaching North Korea’s weapons programmes. Lawyers caution that a pledge to cover losses is not the same as a contractual right.

Yerevan Nature Deal Lands With One Target of 24 on Course

After nearly two weeks of negotiation in Armenia’s capital, governments agreed a new accord on nature and acknowledged they are falling behind. The 2022 framework they are meant to be delivering set 24 targets, including protecting 30% of the world’s land and seas by 2030. The UN says one is on track.

Dive deeper

One target in twenty-four is the number to hold on to, and the agreement reached this week is best understood as an admission rather than an advance. The meeting’s president pronounced it “perfect”; a conservation body’s assessment was drier and more useful — “while not particularly exciting or detailed, it’s good news that countries could reach agreement”. Money is the unresolved question. According to the UN, pledges are nowhere near the rate required, and the reason recurs across this week’s news: governments are redirecting international aid towards defence budgets and towards absorbing energy shocks. The fund meant to make companies pay for commercialising genetic material from biodiverse countries could in theory raise $3.6bn a year; it had attracted $10,000 in pledges when the meeting opened. Of the $1bn pledged in Yerevan, about half came from philanthropy rather than governments. One caution: this rests on a single approved outlet, the deal having landed at half past one this morning. Watch whether finance pledges materialise before the targets formally expire, because on current evidence twenty-three of them will not be met.

Democrats Lead by Eight Points With Three Days to the Midterms

Americans vote on Tuesday, and one polling average puts Democrats 8.2 points ahead on the national congressional ballot, 51.4% to 43.2%. A wire-service analysis counted more than 43 million early or postal votes five days out, nearly ten million more than at the same stage in 2022. A separate survey found 44% of registered voters expect Democrats to take the House against 31% for Republicans, with the Senate far closer.

Dive deeper

The two chambers are telling different stories and the distinction matters more than the headline lead. On the Senate, the same survey found 39% expecting a Democratic majority against 36% expecting a Republican one — inside the margin of most polling, and a reminder that Senate contests turn on which seats happen to be up rather than on a national mood. The managing editor of one university election unit put the House bluntly: a big Democratic lead on the generic ballot “suggests that the House is almost certain to flip to Democrats”. That is a forecast, not a result, and it is published here as one. Two cautions belong with any of this. Generic ballot averages have historically understated Republican performance in some cycles, and early voting totals tell you about enthusiasm and convenience rather than about outcome. The same analyst was explicit that the Senate “is much more up in the air”. What is not in doubt is the consequence: control of either chamber would determine whether the administration can legislate for the second half of its term, and several of this week’s stories — Iran, Ukraine, tariffs — have been openly timed around Tuesday.

UK Domestic

Settlement Decision Due Next Week After Cabinet Objections

The home secretary is expected to put her final decision on settlement rules for legal migrants to Parliament in the coming week. Her proposal would double the wait for permanent residence from five years to ten, with some lower-paid workers waiting fifteen. It has drawn objections from inside the government.

Dive deeper

The development is that social care workers already in Britain are now likely to be exempt from the longer wait, which removes the sharpest edge of the proposal. The contested part was never the length of the wait but whether it applied to people already here. The housing secretary, before she rejoined the cabinet, called the proposals “un-British” precisely because they would change the terms for those who came in good faith under the old rules. Most other workers would still need ten years, reducible for higher earnings or for contributing to their local community — a discretionary element that is where the argument moves next. Indefinite leave to remain is not a technicality: it confers the right to live, work and study without time limit and to claim benefits where eligible. The Home Office will say nothing until the decision reaches Parliament. Two cautions: all of this is briefed rather than announced, it rests on a single approved outlet, and she has said nothing on the record. The consultation drew 200,000 responses, and no start date has been given.

Savers and Landlords Face Four Points More From April 2027

Wednesday’s Budget added two percentage points to the tax rates on savings interest and property income, on top of two already announced by the previous chancellor. From April 2027 the rates become 24% for basic-rate taxpayers, 44% for higher-rate and 49% for the additional rate. The plan to cut the cash ISA limit was dropped.

Dive deeper

This was the surprise of the Budget and it is a four-point increase arriving in two instalments, which is why it has taken some days to register. Set against ordinary income tax rates of 20, 40 and 45%, savers and landlords will pay four points more on this income than on earnings. One distinction is worth holding: the savings rates apply across the United Kingdom, while for individuals the property rates apply to England, Wales and Northern Ireland, with Scotland and Wales able to set property rates under their own powers. The official note also supplies the proportion: about 12% of taxpayers pay an average of £113 a year more on savings, and about 5% of taxpayers £225 more on property. And it gives the threshold that matters most — a basic-rate taxpayer using the starting rate and the personal savings allowance in full “would need over £150,000 in savings, held outside an ISA, paying 4%, to start paying tax on interest”. Those aged 55 and over make up 63% of those affected. The cash ISA limit stays at £20,000.

Sorrow and Regret Offered, but Reparations Refused

In a signed article before next week’s Commonwealth summit in Antigua, the prime minister called the transatlantic slave trade “a brutal and barbaric violation”, expressed “sorrow and regret”, and said he is open to calls for a formal state apology. He refused financial reparations: “I do not believe that is the right answer.”

Dive deeper

The structure of the offer is the story. He gives a personal expression of regret, puts a formal state apology on the table without granting it, and declines reparations on a liability argument: that “British people today” cannot be “held liable for historical wrongs, however heinous, that happened in a different age under different laws and in which they played no personal part”. In their place he offers a debt-restructuring drive for the poorest Commonwealth countries, to be led by a former prime minister and expected to involve the IMF — which matters, because debt-servicing costs in the poorest countries are at their highest in more than twenty-five years and more than 40% of them spend more on interest than on health. Caribbean leaders have answered precisely rather than warmly. Barbados thanked him for “breaking new ground” while saying “our views differ” on reparations. A former prime minister of St Vincent was blunter: “If they are not going to entertain reparations, what is the conversation about? Nothing.” The summit runs from tomorrow to Wednesday; reparations are not on its agenda.

Bereaved Families Win Full Asbestos Compensation From Today

From today, families of people who died of asbestos-related disease before they could claim will receive the same compensation the sufferer would have been entitled to, ending a gap of roughly £7,000. About 300 families a year are affected. For a claimant of sixty, a dependant could now receive £56,656 rather than £24,526.

Dive deeper

This is a small, old and precise injustice being closed, and it took decades of campaigning. Under the scheme covering mesothelioma and other dust-related diseases, workers who claimed in their own lifetime received an average of about £17,700 last year; where the sufferer died before claiming, the bereaved family received about £10,700 instead. The logic of the gap was never defensible to the families on the receiving end of it, and the minister for social security put it plainly: “Losing a loved one to an asbestos-related disease is devastating. Families should not then face a financial penalty because of that loss.” The disparity mattered most for younger claimants, which is why the worked example is so stark — more than double for a sixty-year-old’s dependant. The context is that these diseases have long latency, so claims arriving now trace back to exposures decades old, and the number of people still developing mesothelioma from industrial-era asbestos has not yet peaked in every cohort. The change takes effect today rather than at the start of a tax year.

Up to Ten Dry Days After the Wettest Week in Two Years

High pressure is returning and the United Kingdom could see as many as ten consecutive days without rain, after an unsettled end to October in which the Environment Agency says England had its wettest week in two years. Halloween evening should stay largely dry, with some rain possible in the Western Isles.

Dive deeper

The swing is the point: back-to-back named storms, Austen and Boelo, gave England its wettest week since 2024 and left two men dead and tens of thousands of properties without power, and within a week the pattern has reversed into a settled spell expected to run into early November with little prospect of significant rainfall. Both are the same weather system doing what the Atlantic does in autumn. For anyone still drying out, the practical consequence is that river levels and saturated ground now have time to recover; for water companies and farmers, a prolonged dry November after a very wet October is a less comfortable combination than it sounds. Two points of discipline on this story. The storms named this season are Austen and Boelo and no others, which is worth restating because this publication wrongly named a third one last week. And a ten-day dry spell is a forecast, not a measurement, offered here as the forecaster’s expectation rather than as fact.

One To Read

Billboards in St John’s

The Guardian · Reported from Antigua before the Commonwealth summit opens tomorrow: placards, letters, T-shirts and a candlelight beach vigil for the Africans trafficked here. Reparations are not on the official agenda, which is rather the point.

☽

Evening Briefing

Friday 30 October 2026 — 21:02 GMT

What It Means For You

If you were planning a heat pump: the boiler upgrade scheme still offers a typical household £7,500, but its funding will now rise only with inflation after the Budget took £741m from it. Installations are expected to stagnate or grow far more slowly than planned.
If you hold tech funds or gold: Intel fell 29% on Friday and US tech stocks were on course to lose more than $1tn in value. Gold has dropped to a one-year low and is down 5.9% so far this month.
If you are a Yorkshire Water customer: the Environment Agency has rated the company one star out of four, its lowest rating, after 260 pollution incidents in 2025. Its chief executive, Nicola Shaw, leaves on 1 January.

GEO Geopolitical

Limpet Mines Disable Tanker in First Such Hormuz Attack of War

On Thursday a small boat attached explosives to the hull of the Panama-flagged tanker Louise 1, about 25 nautical miles north-east of Khasab in Oman. The blast started a fire that was later put out. Maritime security sources told Reuters it was the first known successful limpet-mine attack on a tanker in the area since the war began. Separately, the IRGC claimed that three tankers had struck sea mines on a southern route it calls unauthorised.

Dive deeper

The UK Maritime Trade Operations centre said the crew were safe and the ship had continued to its next port. According to the sources, a similar attempt in September failed when the devices did not go off. The Greece-based risk firm Marisks said: “The apparent ability of a small craft to approach a transiting tanker, deploy explosive devices and withdraw presents a significant security concern.” Iran insists that ships use northern routes it has approved, while Washington promotes the southern lane. Tasnim, a news agency close to the IRGC, said Tehran had not yet answered JD Vance’s letter and would not drop its core conditions, including an end to the US blockade of its ports.

Intel Suffers Worst Day Since 1974 as AI Sell-Off Deepens

Intel shares fell 29% on Friday, on course for their worst day since 1974, after the company gave weaker-than-expected guidance. It blamed a plant shutdown in Israel and weak PC demand. US tech stocks were on track to lose more than $1tn in value, a day after Alphabet lost about $500bn. By early evening the S&P 500 was down about 1.8%, and gold had fallen to a one-year low.

Dive deeper

Intel’s finance chief, David Zinsner, said: “Looking ahead, we see the PC slowdown continuing at least through the first half of next year.” Amazon, which plans to spend $220bn this year, also fell after missing forecasts, and Reddit dropped 26%. Kathleen Brookes of XTB said: “Investors have turned ruthless, punishing any signs of disappointment.” The US government’s 10% stake in Intel lost about $12bn in value on the day. Commerzbank said gold’s fall to its lowest level since October 2025 was partly due to forced selling and margin calls after the tech slide.

Hundreds Evacuated From Occupied Oleshky Under Kherson Ceasefire

Hundreds of residents left the devastated, Russian-occupied town of Oleshky on Friday. It was the first joint relief operation of the war, made possible by a ceasefire across the Kherson region brokered by Melania Trump. A convoy of 25 buses had four hours to take out up to 750 people. Several hundred residents, most of them older, chose to stay. Those heading for Ukraine must travel through Crimea, Anapa in southern Russia and Belarus.

Dive deeper

Ukraine’s ombudsman, Dmytro Lubinets, went in with his Russian counterpart, Yana Lantratova. He is the first Ukrainian official to visit occupied territory since the full-scale invasion. “The problem is that a lot of people are staying,” he said. About 2,000 people remain, and some say they have lived on a cup of rice or buckwheat a day. The Kremlin called the operation a special case that was “difficult to extrapolate” to the wider peace effort. The ceasefire, the longest and widest since 2022, is due to end on Sunday.

G20 Photo Scrapped as Europeans Refuse to Stand With Lavrov

The United States cancelled the traditional ‘family photo’ at the G20 foreign ministers’ meeting in Atlanta after European diplomats, including the UK’s, refused to pose with Russia’s Sergei Lavrov. A US official said Washington had dropped the picture rather than let it become “a diplomatic distraction”. Ukraine was not invited to the meeting, which is hosted by Marco Rubio.

Dive deeper

A British official said the UK had “a longstanding policy not to have direct, bilateral engagement with Russian ministers” since the invasion. The Foreign Secretary, Ed Miliband, is attending. The episode shows how far European capitals have drifted from Washington, which has partly thawed relations with Moscow. Trump has waived some sanctions and agreed to import Russian diesel ahead of next week’s midterms. Volodymyr Zelensky called the deal “a gift” to Putin. Relations between Kyiv and Washington have been strained this month over Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil infrastructure.

Novaya Gazeta to Close, Accusing Russian State of Killing It

Novaya Gazeta, Russia’s best-known independent newspaper, announced on Friday that it will close. It had received an eviction order, and at the same time the system it used to collect readers’ donations was disabled. “They’ve killed us,” its statement said, blaming “the repressive state apparatus”. The paper had already lost its licence, and its website was blocked.

Dive deeper

“This is not just our own story; it is the story of a country and a society that are being systematically crushed,” wrote its editor-in-chief, Sergei Sokolov. Six journalists linked to the paper have been killed, including Anna Politkovskaya, who was shot 20 years ago this month. Its former editor, Dmitry Muratov, won the Nobel peace prize in 2021 but was declared a ‘foreign agent’ in 2023. This year police searched its offices and arrested the investigative reporter Oleg Roldugin. Novaya was one of the last critical voices still operating inside Russia.

UK UK Domestic Politics

First Ministers Tell Burnham Local Devolution Is Theirs to Decide

Andy Burnham chaired his first National Economic Council for the nations in Glasgow and urged all four nations to “move together” on handing power to regions. John Swinney and Rhun ap Iorwerth agreed to work with him. But both insisted that further devolution within Scotland and Wales was a matter for Holyrood and the Senedd alone. Northern Ireland sent only officials after a row between Sinn Féin and the DUP.

Dive deeper

“It’s really important we all move at the same pace together, and I won’t allow anything to delay that,” Burnham said. Downing Street said it would review the issues Swinney raised but ruled out a second independence referendum. Before the summit, ap Iorwerth said the Budget showed Burnham was “not serious about Wales”. Wes Streeting added to the friction by accusing the Scottish government of hoarding powers. Burnham called Michelle O’Neill’s absence “disappointing”, and the Sinn Féin MP John Finucane called it a “disgrace”.

Streeting Denies Kicking Defence Spending Can Down the Road

Wes Streeting rejected claims that the government is putting off decisions on defence spending. He and John Healey announced that foreign firms winning UK defence contracts worth more than £50m must invest the same amount in Britain. These ‘offset’ rules will apply case by case from April 2027. Critics point out that the Budget set no path to spending 3% of GDP on defence by 2030.

Dive deeper

“I like Tan very much, he’s a friend and I respect him, but I strongly disagree with him,” Streeting said of Tan Dhesi, the Labour chair of the defence committee. Dhesi says key decisions were “kicked into the long grass” until next year’s spending review. UK defence spending is estimated at 2.6% of GDP this year, and some estimates suggest an extra £10bn a year is needed to reach the targets. Streeting hinted at more cuts to other departments, saying they were “doing some heavy lifting”. Poland, Norway and the Netherlands already have similar rules.

Budget Takes £741m From Heat Pump Scheme to Help Fund Defence

John Healey’s Budget cut more than £3bn from the energy department, much of it to pay for defence. This includes £741m from the boiler upgrade scheme, which subsidises heat pumps. The scheme’s funding will now rise only with inflation, instead of increasing to just over £700m by 2029–30. Experts warn that the target of 250,000 installations a year by 2030 is slipping out of reach.

Dive deeper

“After the cuts announced on Wednesday, it is very difficult to see how we can hit our clean heating targets,” said Andrew Sissons of Nesta. About 60,000 heat pumps a year are now fitted in existing homes. Hydrogen schemes lose about £500m and carbon capture £200m. A government source called it “probably the most significant shift we have seen in energy policy” since Labour took office, with the emphasis now on cost. Paul Ovenden, a former adviser to Keir Starmer, said the cuts were “the bones of Ed Miliband’s project being picked clean”.

Yorkshire Water Chief Quits a Day After One-Star Rating

Nicola Shaw will step down as Yorkshire Water’s chief executive on 1 January. Her announcement came 24 hours after the Environment Agency gave the company its lowest rating and classed it as ‘poorly performing’. The regulator said the firm was responsible for 260 pollution incidents in 2025, its highest total since 2011. Nicola Medalova, who previously worked at National Grid, will succeed her.

Dive deeper

Shaw had been criticised for receiving £1.9m in previously undisclosed payments from the parent company, Kelda Holdings, between 2023 and 2026. “Although there remains a huge amount of work to do, I am extremely proud of what our colleagues have achieved,” she said. The Liberal Democrat MP Tom Gordon was blunter: “Good riddance.” Ofwat fined the company £47m in 2024 for historic sewage leaks. Medalova joins on Monday for a handover period before taking over in the new year.

Number 10 North Advertises 50 Jobs in Manchester Hiring Drive

Andy Burnham’s Manchester office has advertised 50 jobs, including a ‘rewiring the state deputy director’ paid up to £117,000. BBC analysis puts the total basic salaries at up to £2.8m. No10 North already has 120 staff, nearly half the 280 who work in Downing Street. It will move to a permanent office on First Street in spring 2027.

Dive deeper

Government sources say the roles will be paid for from existing budgets, with no redundancies elsewhere in the civil service. The government says No10 North is “driving the most significant transfer of power out of Westminster in a generation”. The Conservatives disagree. “Manchesterism is just more bureaucracy at taxpayers’ expense,” said Alex Burghart, the party’s deputy leader. It also emerged that English mayors will be free to use their share of income tax, which starts in April 2028, to give grants directly to residents. Lord Houchen plans to do this in Tees Valley.

One To Read

Evacuations begin from Oleshky under Melania Trump-brokered ceasefire — CNN. A detailed account of how a town cut off by mines and drones for years was finally reached, and of the people who chose to stay behind.

☼

Morning Briefing

Friday 30 October 2026 — 07:55 GMT

What It Means For You

If you rely on public services: the IFS says the Budget leaves a £28bn-a-year gap and points to “a spending review that looks pretty brutal for some departments”, including real-terms cuts. Departments have already been told to find 1% savings to fund defence.
If you hold crypto on an exchange: Binance says $6.3bn of assets were hit in what may be the largest hack ever, and has pledged to “cover all losses”. Analysts blame a North Korean unit; check your exchange’s security notices.
If you have a pension or index fund: Alphabet lost just over $500bn in market value on Thursday after warning that AI search summaries are hurting ad sales. Big US technology stocks make up a large share of most global trackers.

GEO Geopolitical

Tehran Holds Vance Letter as US Floats Istanbul or Doha Talks

Iran has confirmed through the Tasnim news agency that it received JD Vance’s letter to its security chief, Mohsen Rezaei, but has not yet replied. Tasnim says Tehran still insists its seven conditions be met. The Washington Post reports that Vance has offered to meet Rezaei, with Istanbul or Doha the likeliest venues.

Dive deeper

According to the Post, Vance told Rezaei that Washington’s central interest is ensuring Iran never obtains a nuclear weapon. He said Tehran’s interests were rebuilding its economy and preserving its sovereignty. US intelligence believes Rezaei, a former Revolutionary Guard commander, is in regular contact with Mojtaba Khamenei. The White House sees him as the only figure who could build consensus behind a deal. Iranian leaders reportedly took the letter as a sign of respect, but there is no sign they have softened on the nuclear issue. Abbas Araghchi says Iran “continues to give diplomacy a chance”, and the White House fears that the window for a settlement may be closing.

Binance Hit by $6.3bn Hack Blamed on North Korea

Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange, says $6.3bn of digital assets were affected in what may be the biggest hack in history. About half has been frozen, and the exchange says it will “cover all losses”. Chainalysis and TRM Labs have attributed the attack to TraderTraitor, a North Korean hacking unit.

Dive deeper

Early checks suggest that an engineer’s laptop was compromised, which allowed unauthorised withdrawals. The theft dwarfs the $1.5bn Bybit hack of 2025, which was also linked to Pyongyang. TRM Labs’ Ari Redbord called it a “watershed moment” and warned that recovery efforts are far from over while the attacker still holds such a large sum. Chainalysis says it has “high confidence” in the North Korean link. Western agencies have long said such thefts fund the regime’s nuclear and missile programmes. Pyongyang has always denied involvement.

Xi’s Purges Leave Record Empty Seats at China Plenum

China’s Communist Party expelled a record 33 members as its fifth plenum closed. Only 279 of the 376 Central Committee members named in 2022 attended, the most empty seats in modern Chinese history. Those expelled include Zhang Youxia, formerly Xi Jinping’s second-in-command in the military hierarchy, and Ma Xingrui, the former party secretary for Xinjiang.

Dive deeper

“More empty seats underscores the plenum’s focus on Xi’s vision of strict internal discipline,” said Neil Thomas of the Asia Society. The purges have gutted the Central Military Commission, which now has only two members: Xi and the anti-graft chief Zhang Shengmin. Zhang was promoted to the politburo this week. The plenum also prepared for the 21st Party congress, expected in late 2027, where Xi is expected to secure a fourth term. Analysts warn that the purges have gone so deep that there are few suitable candidates left to promote.

Serbia’s Student Victors Demand Police and Intelligence Chiefs Go

Newly elected Student List MPs have called on the heads of Serbia’s police, the BIA security agency and its anti-terror unit to stand down. The demand comes days after the movement ousted Aleksandar Vučić’s party from power. The movement fears that evidence of wrongdoing could be destroyed during the weeks-long handover.

Dive deeper

The movement grew out of protests after a railway station canopy collapsed in Novi Sad in November 2024, killing 16 people. Its “Student Plan” promises to “halt the plunder, return stolen goods to the state budget, and invest directly in education and the economy”. The clear-out has already begun: Manja Grčić, director of the state broadcaster RTS, has stepped down, and the new MPs want the head of Telekom Srbija replaced. The new MPs are novices, including professors, artists, athletes and as many as 12 doctors. Their test is whether they can turn protest energy into an orderly transfer of power.

Alphabet Loses $500bn as AI Weighs on Search Advertising

Alphabet lost just over $500bn in market value on Thursday after it said AI summaries in search were hurting advertising revenue. Its shares fell almost 13% to a six-month low. Revenue rose 25% to $127.6bn, but profits fell 25% and free cash flow turned negative by more than $9bn. Amazon fell 6% after hours.

Dive deeper

Forrester’s Tracy Woo said the results “highlight the challenge of funding massive AI investments while maintaining the strength of established businesses”. Google Cloud revenue rose 103% to almost $31bn, but search ads remain the bulk of the business. Amazon reported free cash flow of minus $42bn. NBC News says the loss ranks second only to Nvidia’s $589bn drop in January 2025 as the largest one-day wipeout in US market history. In London, the FTSE 100 had closed 0.26% higher, helped by Shell. For investors, the question is no longer whether big tech will spend on AI, but whether the spending is eroding its core businesses.

DOM UK Domestic Politics

DUP Blocks O’Neill From Burnham’s Economic Council

The DUP has blocked First Minister Michelle O’Neill from attending the National Economic Council with Andy Burnham in Glasgow today. It acted after Sinn Féin joined protests that stopped an Orange Order march along the Garvaghy Road in Portadown. “Her law breaking must have consequences,” said Gavin Robinson. O’Neill called the move “reckless and irresponsible”.

Dive deeper

Deputy First Minister Emma Little-Pengelly will not take part in joint engagements with O’Neill, and the DUP will not let her act alone. Because the two offices are jointly held, Northern Ireland will have no Executive voice at the summit. O’Neill called Robinson’s remarks “arrogant and supremacist” and said the move was “a reactive stunt” driven by the DUP’s own internal pressures. Little-Pengelly has asked for a separate meeting with the prime minister about the Executive’s budget pressures. Sir Chris Bryant, the Northern Ireland Secretary, called the situation “deeply frustrating”. The row recalls the Drumcree stand-offs of the 1990s and puts strain on power-sharing.

IFS Warns of £28bn Gap and ‘Brutal’ Spending Review

The Institute for Fiscal Studies says John Healey needed to set aside another £28bn a year to cover inflation and reach 3% of GDP on defence by 2030. IFS director Helen Miller warned of “a spending review that looks pretty brutal for some departments”. Healey has since said there is no timetable for cutting welfare in this parliament.

Dive deeper

“Public service spending plans look extremely tight. They don’t look to me like plans that this government would want to deliver,” Miller said. Departments have already been told to find 1% cuts to fund the Defence Investment Plan. On Today, Healey said “there will be a reduction in the benefits bill”. He later told Channel 4 that “we’ve not set a timetable for that”. The OBR forecasts welfare spending rising from £334bn last year to £431bn by 2030. Reviews by Alan Milburn on youth employment and Stephen Timms on disability benefits are now the government’s main hope of slowing that rise.

Mahmood Angers Ministers Over Asylum Homelessness Impact

Shabana Mahmood has angered Cabinet colleagues by repeatedly refusing to say how much she expects her asylum changes to increase homelessness. Home Office ministers will meet other departments in the coming days to agree a compromise, amid warnings of a staffing crisis in social care. The Home Office insists that ending asylum hotels “will not leave people homeless”.

Dive deeper

Last November Mahmood announced plans to end permanent leave to remain and the duty to support asylum seekers who would otherwise be destitute. Her own department’s impact assessment, published this month, admits homelessness could rise and warns of “financial hardship or destitution”. One source said she had “point-blank refused to engage” with questions on homelessness and community cohesion. Her allies say the effects cannot yet be measured because the details are not settled. The dispute pits the Home Office against colleagues working on the government’s pledge to end rough sleeping.

MPs Say Government’s Obesity ‘Moonshot’ Is Doomed to Fail

The Commons health and social care committee says the government’s pledge to “end the obesity epidemic” within a decade is “doomed to fail” without a rethink. MPs want a cabinet committee chaired by the prime minister and a cross-government plan within three months. In England, 30% of adults live with obesity, and 66% are overweight or obese.

Dive deeper

The committee says that more than a year after the promise was made, basic questions remain unanswered: how progress will be measured, and how departments will work together. It blames the “muddled thinking” of successive governments partly on confusing prevention with treatment. Layla Moran, the Liberal Democrat who chairs the committee, said a credible plan would mean “standing up to the food industry on numerous points”, including advertising, labelling and supermarket sales targets. Close to a third of children are overweight or living with obesity. The report puts the burden on Burnham personally, and on No 10 rather than the Department of Health.

Nine Council Mergers Withdrawn as Reorganisation Stalls

The government has withdrawn decisions on nine of 14 planned council mergers, including Kent, Devon and Lancashire, while it seeks “legal clarity”. Only East Sussex, Gloucestershire, Oxfordshire, Warwickshire and Worcestershire will go ahead, after three more weeks of consultation. Shadow local government secretary Katie Lam called it “a farce”.

Dive deeper

Angela Rayner paused the programme last month over concerns about legal challenges. Local Government Minister Jim McMahon told MPs that a review had found the government’s decision-making “robust”. Even so, he withdrew the decisions announced in July for Derbyshire, Devon, Hertfordshire, Kent, Lancashire, Leicestershire, Lincolnshire, Nottinghamshire and Staffordshire. “This is not a reflection of the work underpinning those proposals,” he said. Essex, Hampshire, Norfolk and Suffolk were already under review after plans there were withdrawn in September. The delays leave councils and voters uncertain over who will run local services, and when.

One To Read

China expels a record number from Communist party amid Xi’s intensified purges of top officials — The Guardian. A clear account of how far Xi’s discipline campaign has hollowed out the party and military elite ahead of next year’s congress.

☽

Evening Briefing

Thursday 29 October 2026 — 21:11 GMT

What It Means For You

If you are a working-age household: the Resolution Foundation expects typical disposable income to fall by £1,050, or 3%, between now and 2029, and says the Budget’s £100 support payment will not offset higher energy bills.
If you book GP appointments online: about 500 practices in England, and some in Wales, have lost their websites and online booking after Silicon Practice went into administration. Phone or visit your surgery instead; the NHS app is still working.
If you shop at or work for Poundland: the chain has filed a notice of intention to appoint administrators, giving it 10 days to find a rescue deal. Its 12,000 staff face an uncertain few days.

GEO Geopolitical

Tehran Weighs Vance Letter as Trump Tells Gulf to Prepare

Iran was expected to reply on Thursday to a letter from JD Vance to its security chief, Mohsen Rezaei, proposing direct talks soon. US reports say the letter, passed on by Qatari mediators, insists the nuclear programme must be on the table from the outset. Trump has meanwhile told Gulf allies to prepare for a short, intense campaign after next week’s midterms.

Dive deeper

The Wall Street Journal says the letter offered a “framework for negotiations” rather than peace terms. Its aim was to see whether the two sides could find enough common ground to persuade Trump not to order a final strike. The New York Times reported that Tehran’s leaders “received well” the letter, and Qatar or Turkey could host talks as early as next week, with Vance leading the US side as he did in June. Abbas Araghchi said on Wednesday that Iran “continues to give diplomacy a chance”. Trump’s own talk of “another little Epic Fury” shows how little time is left.

Final Count Leaves Netanyahu Short as Arab Lists Become Kingmakers

Final results confirm that neither Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc nor the Jewish opposition has a majority. Netanyahu’s bloc has 53 seats and Gadi Eisenkot’s 48, while the Joint List and Ra’am won a record 19 seats between them. Likud has accused the Arab-led parties of “stealing” the election, and Shin Bet is investigating whether they received illegal funding from Qatar and Turkey.

Dive deeper

Eisenkot and the Arab party leaders accused Netanyahu of trying to “delegitimise” the result by alleging foreign interference. Qatar’s foreign ministry rejected the claims as “ridiculous and dangerous” and accused Israeli politicians of running a disinformation campaign against Doha. The Arab parties’ result followed a surge in turnout among Arab voters. Activists outside the counting rooms urged Eisenkot to try to form a government that includes them. The double-envelope ballots of soldiers and diplomats could still move individual seats, but they are unlikely to change the balance between the blocs.

Leaked Audio Points to Controllers as Spain Crash Toll Reaches 69

The death toll from Wednesday’s high-speed collision near Urda, south of Madrid, has risen to 69. Leaked recordings published in Spanish media appear to show Madrid’s control centre clearing a Renfe train to move while an Iryo train had stalled about 25km ahead. Pedro Sánchez said the authorities would “get to the bottom of every last detail of this tragedy”.

Dive deeper

In one recording, a controller tells the driver to continue “at normal speed with normal operation” and replies “Yes” when the driver asks for confirmation. The automatic train protection system had been out of action since a computer failure. Transport Minister Óscar Puente has called the clearance “inexplicable”, but unions accuse him of blaming a single controller. King Felipe VI and Queen Letizia visited injured passengers in a Toledo hospital on Thursday. Survivors described trapped passengers, smoke and one carriage on fire. This is Spain’s second deadly high-speed crash this year, and with a general election next month the question of accountability will not go away.

Kherson Enjoys Rare Quiet as Six-Day Truce Holds

A six-day ceasefire brokered by Melania Trump to get humanitarian aid into Russian-occupied Oleshky has given Kherson its first quiet days in years. The guns fell silent at 4am Moscow time on Tuesday, two days earlier than planned. Since then, said Ukraine’s human rights ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets, the city has “literally come back to life”.

Dive deeper

The truce is local and short, and it is tied to food and medicine deliveries for Oleshky, on the Russian-held bank of the Dnipro. Residents have been walking streets still covered in anti-drone netting. “Ever since the ceasefire was announced, there’s been total silence,” one resident, Olga, told the BBC, though people fear what will follow once it lapses. The Kremlin still rejects a wider ceasefire, so the real test is whether a humanitarian pause can become a model for something broader. On past form, residents are right to be wary.

Shell Lifts FTSE 100 as Haleon Suffers Record Fall

The FTSE 100 closed up 0.26% at 10,722.07, led by energy stocks after Shell reported its highest quarterly profit since 2022 and raised its share buyback. Shell rose 2.1%, even though oil prices fell. Haleon dropped about 15%, its biggest one-day fall since it listed four years ago, after cutting its organic revenue growth forecast.

Dive deeper

Energy stocks gained about 1.6% as Shell’s refining margins outweighed a weaker crude price, which fell after news of Vance’s outreach to Tehran. The paradox is plain: the war that is squeezing household budgets is lifting the profits of London’s largest oil company. Sterling firmed against the dollar on Thursday, and ten-year US Treasury yields eased back below 5%. Next week brings the US midterms, and soon after the Bank of England’s next rate decision is due, so markets face two tests in quick succession.

DOM UK Domestic Politics

Think Tanks Warn of ‘Painful’ Years as Living Standards Stall

The Resolution Foundation says typical working-age household incomes will fall by £1,050, or 3%, by 2029. The IFS says this decade will be the worst for household income growth on record. John Healey said his Budget offered “breathing space” but conceded the government could “never remove completely” cost-of-living pressures.

Dive deeper

The OBR called its own forecast a “pretty grim picture” and blamed higher borrowing costs and war-driven inflation. The Resolution Foundation says the £100 energy payment will not offset higher bills. It had already called the Budget “scattergun” and forecast bills averaging £2,210 next year. The politics are awkward for a government that promised to improve living standards. Healey argues that bigger giveaways would have risked the fiscal rules and gilt-market confidence. Markets expect the Bank of England to raise rates next month, which would add to the squeeze.

Burnham Cannot Promise Welfare Cut Before Election

Andy Burnham said he wanted to cut the welfare bill “as soon as we possibly can” but could not guarantee it would happen before the next election. Spending is forecast to rise from £353bn this year to £431bn by 2031/32. Healey told the Today programme there “will be a reduction in the benefits bill”, but Downing Street later said it was “not setting an arbitrary target or timetable”.

Dive deeper

Treasury sources rejected the idea that Healey had promised a cut by polling day, which must come by August 2029. “We want to get the welfare bill down as quickly as possible, and we’re working flat out to that end,” Burnham said. He warned against “crude cuts” and talked of getting people into “sustainable employment”. The Conservatives accused Labour of being “addicted to welfare”. The Budget gave no detail on welfare reform, which leaves the biggest spending pressure without a plan. That gap gives the opposition its line of attack for the winter.

Poundland on the Brink as Owners Reject Rescue Bid

Poundland has filed a notice of intention to appoint administrators after its US owner, Gordon Brothers, cut off funding and rejected a takeover offer from Martin Property Group. The notice gives the chain 10 days to find a rescue deal, with 12,000 jobs at stake. “This is a deeply worrying time for Poundland staff and their families,” Andy Burnham said.

Dive deeper

Burnham said he and the Business Secretary wanted to know why the MPG offer, which would have protected jobs, had been turned down. “We stand ready to support the workforce however we can,” he said. Managing director Barry Williams told staff that the owner had pulled funding despite strong sales. The threat comes just as the Budget asks retailers to absorb a 3.9% minimum wage rise in April. Ministers can lean on the owners, but they have few direct levers.

Hundreds of GP Surgeries Lose Online Booking After Firm Collapses

About 500 GP practices in England, just under 10% of the total, have lost their websites and online booking after Silicon Practice went into administration. Practices in London, Gloucestershire and Norfolk have reported problems, and services in Wales are also affected. NHS England told patients to contact their practice “by phone or in person as usual”.

Dive deeper

More than 40% of GP appointments are now booked online. Since last year, every practice in England has had to offer online booking. GP leaders warned of huge disruption. The NHS app still works, but affected surgeries will now have to field far more phone calls. The collapse shows how much of primary care depends on small private suppliers. Questions over contract resilience and contingency plans now fall to NHS England.

Farage and Lib Dem MP Clash Over Alleged Commons Shove

Nigel Farage said he skipped Wednesday’s Budget to avoid a repeat of a “physical altercation” with another MP at May’s State Opening. Caroline Voaden, the Lib Dem MP for South Devon, then said she was that MP, and that the encounter had left her “shocked and bloody angry”. The Lib Dems say Farage “attempted to shove” her; Reform accuses them of “lying”.

Dive deeper

Footage first published by the Daily Telegraph shows the two leaving the chamber together, with no visible sign of a major altercation. A Reform source said “the video disproves that clearly”. Voaden says the incident itself is not in the clip. The row follows another one over where Reform sits in the Commons. Farage’s absence on Budget day has drawn as much attention as his explanation for it. The episode is minor but telling: relations between Reform and the Liberal Democrats are now openly hostile.

One To Read

‘The city is alive’: A brief peace in Kherson, but residents fear what comes next — BBC News. A vivid report from a front-line city enjoying its first quiet days in years, and a sober account of how fragile that quiet is.

☼

Morning Briefing

Thursday 29 October 2026 — 07:55 GMT

What It Means For You

If your home is in council tax bands A to D: you will get a one-off £100 towards energy bills this winter in England, and Wales will match it. The Resolution Foundation expects bills to average £2,210 across 2027, up £600 on this year, so the help covers less than a fifth of the rise. Gas standing charges go during 2027, but heavy users will pay more per unit.
If you have savings or rent out property: tax on that income rises to 24% for basic-rate taxpayers from April 2027, rather than the 22% previously planned. The planned cut in the cash ISA allowance from £20,000 to £12,000 has been scrapped, while income tax thresholds stay frozen.
If you work on the minimum wage or drive for a living: minimum wage rates rise by 3.9% in April, and the temporary 5p cut in fuel duty is extended to July. Markets expect the Bank of England to raise interest rates next month, which would push up the cost of new mortgages.

GEO Geopolitical

Spain’s Worst Rail Crash in 13 Years Kills at Least 68

At least 68 people were killed on Wednesday when a Renfe high-speed train from Madrid to Seville ran into a stationary Iryo train near Toledo. Transport Minister Óscar Puente said a computer failure had halted six trains, after which Madrid’s control centre took an “inexplicable” decision to let them move again without speed restrictions. More than 500 people were on board the two trains.

Dive deeper

It is Spain’s second deadly high-speed crash this year, after a collision on the same line near Córdoba in January. “The whole of Spain is grieving,” Pedro Sánchez said at the scene, calling two serious crashes in a year “unacceptable”. Three days of official mourning began today. The politics are already sharp: the CSIF union has demanded Puente’s resignation, accusing him of “scapegoating” a traffic controller, and train drivers are pressing ahead with a strike today “in defence of railway safety”. With a general election due next month, rail safety is now a campaign issue; Vox alone kept campaigning on Wednesday.

Vance Reaches Out to Tehran as Pentagon Readies Post-Election Strikes

JD Vance has written to Mohsen Rezaei, head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, to try to revive negotiations, the Wall Street Journal reports. At the same time, Pete Hegseth has removed the Pentagon’s top military planner, Lt Gen Brett Sylvia, without explanation. US officials have told Middle Eastern states to be ready for possible renewed military action after Tuesday’s midterms. Brent fell 1.23% to $113.90 this morning.

Dive deeper

Donald Trump played down the letter: “If you want to do that, that’s OK,” he said he had told Vance. Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, said Tehran “continues to give diplomacy a chance to succeed”, and offered to implement its “7-Day Plan” in under a week. That plan would reopen the Strait of Hormuz if hostilities end and frozen assets are released. Military signals point the other way. Two US officials told CNN that forces could launch major operations “within 96 hours” of an order; Trump has not decided. Shell, meanwhile, nearly doubled its quarterly profit to $10.81bn on record refining margins.

Israel Heads for Deadlock as Netanyahu Bloc Stalls at 53

With about 90% of ballots counted, Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc is on 53 seats and Gadi Eisenkot’s on 48, both short of the 61 needed in the 120-seat Knesset. Arab-led parties are set for a record 19. Between 430,000 and 480,000 absentee ballots, many from soldiers, are being counted today. Official results are expected next week, when President Isaac Herzog begins consultations.

Dive deeper

Netanyahu’s bloc has lost 15 seats compared with the outgoing Knesset, yet Likud, on 26, remains the largest party. Arithmetic, not size, decides, and both leaders have ruled out depending on the Arab parties. Analysts expect Netanyahu to seek a unity government that could include Eisenkot, though that is far from certain. Herzog has urged restraint: “We must do everything we can … to avoid another round of elections.” Likud has alleged, without evidence, that the election was “stolen”. The Central Elections Committee will examine the claims. Netanyahu stays caretaker prime minister until a government forms.

Federal Reserve Holds Rates, but Two Members Vote to Raise

The US Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate at 3.75%–4% on Wednesday, a week before the midterm elections. Governor Lisa Cook and the Cleveland Fed’s Beth Hammack dissented in favour of a quarter-point rise. “Inflation remains elevated,” the committee said. The ten-year Treasury yield rose to about 5.03%.

Dive deeper

The Fed raised rates in September for the first time in three years, as the Iran war’s oil shock pushed inflation up. Kevin Warsh, the chairman, said that “monetary medicine is starting to work some”, but declined to say what December would bring: “A lot of things can happen.” Futures still put the chance of a December rise at about 86%, according to CME’s FedWatch tool. Today’s PCE inflation and GDP figures will test that pricing. Markets expect the Bank of England to raise rates next month.

Putin Hails Musk as Kremlin Rejects Zelensky’s Ceasefire Offer

Vladimir Putin called Elon Musk “a real genius” on Wednesday and said Russia was in “close contact” with him on satellites, during the Russia-Africa summit in Moscow. The Kremlin continues to reject the full or partial ceasefire Volodymyr Zelensky has offered, the Institute for the Study of War reports. Russia fired one ballistic missile and 88 drones at Ukraine overnight into Wednesday.

Dive deeper

The praise lands awkwardly in Kyiv. Ukraine’s military suffered Starlink outages last week that Musk has admitted SpaceX caused deliberately. Russia’s rival Rassvet network has only a couple of dozen satellites to Starlink’s roughly 13,000. ISW says Moscow’s terms still include rolling Nato back to its 1997 borders. In London, John Healey announced £10bn of loans and export guarantees for Ukraine, which Zelensky called “a truly strong and very timely step”. ISW adds that Ukraine’s long-range strikes are forcing Russia to move its data infrastructure.

UK UK Domestic Politics

Healey’s First Budget Taxes Banks to Fund £100 Energy Payment

John Healey’s first Budget gives about 20 million households a one-off £100 towards energy bills, costing £2.6bn. It is paid for by doubling the bank surcharge to 6% for 15 months and raising tax on savings and property income. He promised families “breathing space now” against “global economic storms”, but deferred big decisions on defence and welfare until next year.

Dive deeper

The Budget was built to calm the gilt market; ten-year yields fell about two basis points as he spoke, and bank shares were among the FTSE 100’s biggest risers. A senior government figure told the FT it was “not radical, but we don’t think the markets would have worn something bigger”. Kemi Badenoch called it “not bold enough”. The IFS’s Helen Miller saw “a raft of fiddly measures but very little that will move the dial on growth”. Healey also promised regional mayors 20% of local business rates, rising towards 100% by the end of the decade. This morning’s front pages largely judged the Budget modest.

OBR Paints ‘Pretty Grim’ Picture as Growth Forecast Is Cut

The Office for Budget Responsibility cut its 2027 growth forecast to 1% and expects inflation to peak at about 3.75% early next year. The watchdog’s head, David Miles, called the outlook for living standards “pretty grim”. Higher interest rates and inflation leave borrowing, before new policy, about £11bn a year above March’s forecast. The Resolution Foundation calls the Budget “scattergun”.

Dive deeper

The Foundation’s overnight analysis puts this Parliament on course to be the second worst for living standards since the 1950s, with a projected £1,000 fall in disposable incomes. Real incomes per person are £420 below their level two years ago and will not recover until April 2029. “Cost of living support is being spread far too thinly,” said its chief executive, Ruth Curtice. Headroom against the fiscal rules is about £15bn in 2029-30, and the tax burden reaches a record 38.6% of GDP. Unprotected departments face real cuts of 6.7%; Curtice doubts plans that tight “will survive reality”.

Departments Told to Find Further 1% Cuts to Fund Defence

Every Whitehall department must cut its capital budget by a further 1% to fill a £4.7bn hole in the Defence Investment Plan. Healey, who resigned as defence secretary in June over funding, postponed the route to 3% of GDP by 2030 until next year’s Spending Review. Badenoch called it “a plan to have a plan”; Nato’s Mark Rutte called it “a credible path”.

Dive deeper

Departments have not yet said what they will cut. Earlier capital cuts for defence scrapped several major road schemes. The OBR puts the cost of reaching 3.5% of GDP by 2035 at £35bn. Tan Dhesi, the Labour chairman of the defence committee, said decisions had “lamentably been delayed”. Healey wants allied and private money too: treaty talks with Finland, Poland and the Netherlands on a shared defence mechanism, and £5bn from the National Wealth Fund and British Business Bank. The IFS doubts the target can be met “without topping up spending totals”.

Burnham Rules Out a General Election Within 12 Months

Andy Burnham has ruled out calling a general election in the next year, after Conservative and Reform claims that he would seek an early mandate. “I can rule out calling a general election in the next 12 months,” he said after the Budget. He also promised to keep Labour’s manifesto red lines on freedom of movement, the single market and customs union “for the whole of this Parliament”.

Dive deeper

The pledge comes with Labour riding a post-leadership bounce: an Ipsos poll puts the party on 32%, the Conservatives on 24% and Reform UK on 20%. Brexit remains the live seam. Jonathan Reynolds told the BBC that UK and EU officials will discuss “future options” for the relationship, including free movement, before the 20 November summit. Downing Street insists there are no current talks on the subject. Labour MPs in Leave-voting seats are nervous; Melanie Onn warned that trust is “hard-earned and easily lost”. Nigel Farage says Burnham has “no mandate” to negotiate.

Tommy Robinson Convicted of Harassing Two Daily Mail Journalists

A Southwark Crown Court jury has found Tommy Robinson, whose real name is Stephen Yaxley-Lennon, guilty of two counts of harassment causing fear of violence against the Daily Mail journalists Andrew Young and Jacob Dirnhuber. The case followed a 2024 article about him in Cyprus during the post-Southport riots. He was bailed until sentencing on 16 December; the offence carries up to ten years.

Dive deeper

The jury reached majority verdicts after deliberating for two days. Robinson had told one reporter, “I’m coming to get you,” and said he had “tagged and bagged” the journalists; one moved out of his home and another needed protection. Frank Ferguson of the Crown Prosecution Service said Robinson had “weaponised social media” against the two men. He denied the charges, saying he had “panicked” when his family’s location was published. Robinson has said Elon Musk was paying his legal bills, so the verdict carries political weight beyond the courtroom.

One To Read

Healey Buys Himself Some Time

BBC News · Dharshini David on why the Budget was more course correction than new course: incomes lower than at the start of the Parliament, a record 38.6% tax burden, and debt interest heading for £160bn.

☼

Morning Briefing

Wednesday 28 October 2026 — 08:42 GMT

What It Means For You

If you heat your home with gas: the typical annual bill is forecast to rise by £276 in January. The Chancellor has said standing charges, which average £108 a year, will go for about 23 million homes, but unit prices will rise to cover them. The Treasury estimates three-fifths of households save about £45 a year on average; heavier users will pay more.
If your only income is the state pension: the full state pension is set to rise to £13,036.40, above the £12,570 tax-free allowance, which would draw about a million people into income tax. Today’s Budget is expected to set out a new personal allowance that keeps them out of it.
If you are saving for a first home in England: more detail is due today on the Your First Home scheme — a 2.5% deposit on a new-build and a loan of 20% of the price, for joint incomes up to £110,000, or £140,000 in London. All of this is expected rather than announced until Healey sits down this afternoon.

GEO Geopolitical

Likud Leads the Count, but Neither Bloc Reaches 61 Seats

With about 55% of votes counted this morning, Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc stood at 56 seats against 49 for Gadi Eisenkot’s alliance — both short of the 61 needed in the 120-seat Knesset. Exit polls make Likud the largest party, on 27 seats to Yashar’s 21, while Arab-led parties are projected to win a record combined 19 on turnout above 77%.

Dive deeper

The count is early and skewed towards right-wing areas, and many absentee ballots, mostly soldiers’, are yet to be counted; a clear result may take a day or two, and tallies differ between outlets as it moves. Both men claimed the night. “We must form a strong, national, right-wing government,” Netanyahu said, having warned followers all day about high Arab turnout. “The coalition of failure has lost the people’s trust,” Eisenkot replied. That leaves the Arab parties, which most Jewish opposition parties pledged not to work with, as possible kingmakers. Ra’am’s Mansour Abbas put it bluntly: “With the numbers we have now, there is no government.” Coalition-building could take weeks or months.

Houthi Strike Claim on Saudi Refinery Lifts Brent Above $115

Brent crude rose 1.32% to $115.59 a barrel this morning after the Iran-backed Houthis said they had hit Ras Tanura, Saudi Arabia’s largest refinery, with a ballistic missile. That undid most of Tuesday’s fall: Brent had dropped 1.7% to close at $113.88 on hopes of diplomacy. Donald Trump told a Texas rally that the war with Iran would end on his terms.

Dive deeper

The claim is so far only the Houthis’ own, and no damage assessment has appeared in approved reporting. It cuts across Tuesday’s more hopeful signal. After meeting his security chief Mohsen Rezaei, Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said the state of “neither war nor peace” must end. He also stressed keeping control of the Strait of Hormuz. In Yemen, nearly 100 fighters have been killed in clashes near the Bab el-Mandeb, and a Central Command estimate puts the war’s cost to the US at $47bn. UBS expects Brent to stay near $110 until the year-end, as global inventories have fallen by about 500 million barrels since February. “Vessels remain exposed to attacks,” its analyst Giovanni Staunovo noted.

Flávio Bolsonaro Reaches the United States After Passports Cancelled

The defeated Brazilian presidential candidate has arrived in the US, sources told the BBC. He left hours after his passports were cancelled for missing a Supreme Court deadline to surrender them in a money-laundering inquiry; he denies wrongdoing and has not been charged. Argentina says he, his wife and two daughters crossed its border and boarded a private flight to Guayaquil, Ecuador, at 11.30pm on Tuesday.

Dive deeper

This settles yesterday’s confusion only in part. Argentina’s migration directorate now says the family travelled “with valid travel documentation and without any legal impediment”, though Argentine officials had earlier told the BBC there was no record of him entering. His route from Ecuador to Florida, where he reportedly met his brother Eduardo, is unclear. A senior US official confirmed that the State Department would issue the family visas; allies quoted by a Brazilian site say he will seek asylum, which is unconfirmed. His own lawyers say they were “completely in the dark”. President Lula, celebrating his 81st birthday, was scathing: “He who owes nothing, fears nothing … The act of leaving Brazil is shameful.”

Oleshky Truce Widened Across Kherson Ahead of Friday Evacuations

A ceasefire agreed to get food and medicine into Russian-occupied Oleshky has been extended across the wider Kherson region, Ukrainian officials say, with no breaches reported. Melania Trump, who brokered it with Pope Leo XIV, said the area had been widened to give humanitarian convoys “safe passage”. Aid deliveries are to be followed by evacuations, planned for Friday, for anyone who wishes to leave.

Dive deeper

An estimated 1,700 to 2,000 people remain in a town of 24,000 before the war, some cooking garden weeds to survive. Both sides are, unusually, saying warm things. The Kremlin’s Dmitry Peskov said all was proceeding “according to plan”. Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said success could “pave the way for other steps in the peace process”. David Arakhamia, of Zelensky’s party, said the truce runs to 22:59 Ukrainian time on Sunday 1 November, calling it the “largest de-escalation since 2022”. The wider picture is harsher. A UN commission of inquiry this week found Russia’s strikes on energy infrastructure “were carried out with intent”; Moscow dismissed its data as “falsified”. Winter will test the truce more than this week does.

Trump Floats Venezuela as a ‘51st State’ at Texas Rally

Donald Trump suggested on Tuesday that Venezuela might one day become the 51st US state, showing off a tanker he said held “one million barrels of oil” under a deal with the country’s US-backed interim government. “We’re celebrating the greatest oil victory in history,” he told a rally in Corpus Christi, with the midterm elections a week away.

Dive deeper

The US attacked Venezuela in January and seized Nicolás Maduro, who now faces criminal charges in New York; no elections have been held since. Critics say Washington has pushed oil before any return to democracy. The domestic purpose is plain. Petrol prices surged when the Iran war began, the President’s approval ratings are at record lows, and he claims fuel prices “will soon come plummeting down”. Venezuela joins Greenland, Canada and Mexico on the list of places he has talked of acquiring. The Federal Reserve announces its decision at 18:00 GMT today. A hold is expected, but futures price a roughly 84% chance of a December rate rise, because oil keeps inflation high.

UK UK Domestic Politics

Healey Delivers First Budget Promising ‘Breathing Space’ on Bills

John Healey presents his first Budget at about 12:30 today, the first of Andy Burnham’s premiership, conceding that Britain faces “a difficult moment”. Gas standing charges are to go for about 23 million homes and fuel duty is expected to stay frozen. A levy on banks is expected to be the main revenue-raiser, possibly by reversing the cut in the bank surcharge from 8% to 3%.

Dive deeper

“This budget is about getting through this difficult moment. But it’s also about putting Britain on a future path,” Healey said in a pre-Budget video. Expect modest measures, with the big decisions on tax and spending put off until next year. More than £1bn is expected for poorer households, mostly through the Warm Home Discount, which could rise by £100 on top of its £150. Online marketplaces may have to collect VAT for large UK sellers, raising up to £1bn. That could pay to lift the small-business rates threshold from £12,000 to £18,000. HSBC’s 32% rise in profit, to about £7.2bn, has weakened the banks’ resistance. All of this remains reported, not announced.

Debt Interest Nears £100bn as War Shrinks the Chancellor’s Headroom

About £100bn of the roughly £1.42tn Healey will allocate this year goes on debt interest, with government borrowing costs at multidecade highs since the war on Iran began in February. The Resolution Foundation estimates the £24bn buffer built at the last tax-raising Budget has halved to about £12bn. Manifesto pledges rule out raising income tax, National Insurance or VAT.

Dive deeper

The Institute for Fiscal Studies calls the backdrop “unquestionably bad news for the economy”. It estimates that higher debt-servicing costs from the conflict will add £10bn–£15bn to borrowing in 2029-30, and that spending plans which already looked tight will get tighter with inflation. “We have a relatively new government with seemingly big ambitions but facing a long list of constraints,” said its director, Helen Miller. Healey is spending about £1bn a month more than forecast. A £4.7bn gap in the defence investment plan is to be plugged largely by cuts elsewhere. The roadmap to 3% of GDP by 2030 waits for next year’s spending review. As Healey himself said last month, “Britain has it harder now.”

Rosebank Can Be Approved Within Climate Targets, Insiders Say

The Rosebank oilfield could be approved without breaching UK emissions targets, government insiders have told the Guardian, because emissions from exported oil do not count against domestic limits. Energy Secretary Miatta Fahnbulleh had been leaning towards rejection, at odds with cabinet colleagues including the Chancellor. The Treasury has already accounted for billions of pounds in tax revenue from the field.

Dive deeper

“Miatta has more latitude than you might think,” one insider said. That makes the decision a matter of political will rather than law. The climate researcher Greg Muttitt, who opposes the field, agrees on the legal point: “the UK government is not going to find itself in any international court if it approves Rosebank.” Campaigners argue that the case against was always about leadership, not direct emissions. The field would produce around seven times the emissions of the Jackdaw gasfield approved last week. Greenpeace and Friends of the Earth have written to the Prime Minister urging him to weigh North Sea drilling, Heathrow and heat-pump grants together. Rejection would leave a hole in the Treasury’s sums on Budget day.

MPs Warn Digital Landline Switch Could Leave Remote Areas Cut Off

MPs for remote constituencies have urged the security minister, Dan Jarvis, to make sure the switch from copper landlines to an internet-based network does not leave people unable to call for help in a storm. The switch is due to finish by the end of January. Unlike digital lines, the old network works in a power cut; back-up batteries given to vulnerable customers last an hour or more.

Dive deeper

The government and operators say digital landlines will be more reliable, but the objection is about resilience rather than everyday service. “When the power goes out people don’t have the phone, they don’t have the internet and often they don’t have a mobile signal either,” said Torcuil Crichton, the Labour MP for the Western Isles. He called the batteries “simply not adequate”. Markus Campbell-Savours, for Penrith and Solway, described an elderly constituent in a Lake District valley whose router, battery and mobile mast all fail overnight. The Conservative Julian Lewis raised similar concerns, as did MPs from the West Country. The pressure is cross-party, and the January deadline is close.

King Acknowledges ‘Suffering of the Past’ as Caribbean Tour Begins

The King opened his first Caribbean tour as monarch in the Bahamas by acknowledging the “great suffering of the past” amid calls for slavery reparations, saying it was “only right” to recognise historic injustices. In line with government policy, he will not apologise or offer reparations. The nine-day tour ends at the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting, where leaders will discuss slavery’s legacy.

Dive deeper

The King’s words go as far as ministers permit and no further, so pressure on the government’s position will build ahead of the summit. He met Governor General Dame Cynthia A. Pratt and Prime Minister Philip Edward Davis. He then spoke at a youth rally in Clifford Park, where he had attended the Bahamas’ independence celebrations as Prince of Wales in 1973. About a dozen protesters outside chanted “pay us what you owe us”. One of them, Sharon Purcer-Cooper, warned: “if they do not do it then we will become a republic.” Buckingham Palace had said beforehand that the King would not shy away from the “colonial legacy”.

One To Read

Who Wins, Who Pays

The Guardian · A clear, line-by-line guide to what was briefed before today’s statement — energy help, the bank levy, online sellers, the mansion tax — set against a halved buffer and £100bn of debt interest.

🌙

Evening Briefing

Tuesday 27 October 2026 — 17:56 GMT

What It Means For You

If you are 18 to 20 and on the minimum wage: tomorrow’s Budget is expected to raise your rate by the same 3.9% as everyone over 21, rather than by more. The gap therefore stops closing, and the promise to abolish age bands slips. The figures are reported, not yet announced.
If you are thinking about a heat pump or solar panels: a government-backed loan scheme opened today, with no money upfront and up to thirty years to repay in some cases — up to £15,000 for solar, £20,000 for the common air-to-water heat pump and £35,000 for a ground-source system, stackable with the existing grant.
If you are waiting to see what the Budget actually does: very little is confirmed. What is on the record is modest — tariffs off 100 food items worth up to £21 a year, fuel duty frozen again, and a carer’s allowance taper that does not arrive until 2030. Almost everything else remains briefing.

GEO Geopolitical

Record Israeli Turnout, and a Fight Over Closing Time

Two-thirds of Israel’s electorate had voted by six o’clock this evening, 66.7%, the highest since such things were first measured in the early 1970s. The prime minister’s party and its coalition partners have asked the electoral authorities to keep polls open past ten; the opposition says that is groundwork for challenging the result.

Dive deeper

Polls close at eight this evening by our clock, so nothing here is a result and no projection appears in this edition. The electoral committee’s own figure was almost 45% by two in the afternoon, six points above the same hour in 2022; official hourly updates put it at 66.7% by six, a nine-point increase. In Nazareth, the largest Palestinian-majority town in Israel, turnout passed 32% by two o’clock against 28% four years ago, still below the national Jewish average but rising; the prime minister spent the day posting about high Arab turnout. The extension request is the live dispute, with the committee convening to rule on it and several complaints already filed by parties in the anti-Netanyahu bloc, though the committee says there is no evidence of systematic tampering with ballot slips. The echo is uncomfortable and worth naming: in Brazil on Sunday the losing candidate’s stated ground for seeking annulment was a judge’s decision to extend voting by two hours. Broadcasters publish exit polls when voting ends, and those can move a long way before a count settles.

Bolsonaro’s Passports Cancelled, His Whereabouts Unknown

Brazilian police have cancelled the passports of the defeated candidate after he missed the 24 hours the Supreme Court gave him to surrender them, in a money-laundering investigation he denies. He has not been seen since Monday and officers are checking border crossings. Argentine authorities say they have no record of him entering their country.

Dive deeper

What is reported tonight is far less solid than the headlines suggest, so here is the line between them. Established: the court order from a named justice, the missed deadline, the cancellation, a second investigation opened today into his campaign over alleged foreign funding, and his own words on Monday — “I never thought about leaving the country.” Not established: where he is. Three Brazilian news organisations report he is airborne to Florida with his family and may seek asylum; two Argentine ones report that he crossed into Argentina but that the aircraft never took off. They cannot all be right, none is on our approved list, and Argentina has told an approved outlet on the record that there is no entry record for him. So no flight is asserted here. Meanwhile his demand has shifted from annulling the result to disqualifying his opponent over alleged abuse of power, without evidence offered; his own party has accepted the result; and the voting extension he calls a dirty trick was requested by his own campaign as well as his rival’s.

Emergency Agency Puts Taraba Death Toll at Sixty-Two

At least 62 people were killed and 52 wounded when gunmen attacked the Binnari community in Taraba state, north-eastern Nigeria, on Friday, according to the state head of the national emergency agency. Thousands have been displaced. Fifty-two bodies have been recovered so far, fifteen of them from the Benue River.

Dive deeper

We declined this story on Sunday, and the reason is worth revisiting now that it has resolved. Two days ago the figures in circulation were irreconcilable — police had recovered at least ten bodies, survivors told a news agency at least twenty, and a human rights organisation’s country director said up to fifty — and publishing any of them would have meant choosing one. The official count has now settled above all three. It is still not final: a state police spokesman says the figure is not definite because bodies are being recovered, which is also why the toll of at least 62 sits above the 52 bodies so far accounted for. The attack is attributed to the armed groups locally called bandits, and a rights organisation’s Nigeria director notes the gunmen used the river to their advantage, which explains the recoveries from the water. The lesson we take from the delay is that waiting cost us two days and bought an official figure.

Nordic Leaders Hold a Rare Joint Call With Putin

The president of Finland and the prime minister of Norway spoke to President Putin for ninety minutes from Helsinki, in a call they initiated to discuss ending the war in Ukraine. Norway’s leader said it showed “big differences in views”. Afterwards Putin blamed “confrontational” European and Nato policies for prolonging the war.

Dive deeper

What makes this notable is who placed the call. Finland and Norway both border Russia, both joined Nato since the invasion, and direct contact between European leaders and the Kremlin has been close to frozen; their offices say the purpose was to look at “future negotiations to help to end the war” and the diplomatic effort to “promote peace and stability in Europe”. The careful wording on both sides tells you how little was agreed: “big differences in views” from Oslo, and from Moscow a statement blaming the other party’s posture for the war continuing. Ukraine’s president spoke to both leaders afterwards and thanked them for their “active support”, which is the detail that matters most — this was not negotiation over Kyiv’s head. It lands the same day as a local truce holding in the south, brokered through an unusual channel, and a week after Kyiv said a three-way meeting with Washington and Moscow would happen in November, now reported for Abu Dhabi. Denmark’s prime minister called the Nordic initiative one she was “very sceptical” of, and said it “was not agreed with any of us”.

Turkish Committee Clears the Mecca Pact for a Full Vote

Turkey’s parliamentary foreign affairs committee has approved the mutual defence agreement with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, carried by the governing party and its allies over opposition objections. It now goes to the full assembly for debate and a vote. The published text binds the parties for ten years.

Dive deeper

This completes a thread we have followed for a week. When the pact was signed in August it committed each party to treat an armed attack on one as an attack on all, using “all necessary means”; Pakistan ratified it, and Turkey began and had not finished. A committee is not the chamber, so ratification is still incomplete, but the direction is now clear and the ten-year term is on the record. The committee’s chairman, from the governing party, made the case in terms designed to reassure rather than deter: the agreement “aims to increase deterrence and cooperation, does not target other countries and is likely to contribute to peace and stability”. That last clause is doing a lot of work in a week when the three signatories’ defence and intelligence chiefs sat in Tehran pressing Iran to rein in the Houthis, and when attacks on Saudi Arabia have continued. Watch the full assembly vote, and whether Iran reads a ten-year commitment as reassurance or as encirclement.

UK Domestic

Minimum Wage to Rise, but the Age Gap Stops Closing

Tomorrow’s Budget is expected to raise the minimum wage by 3.9% for every adult band. That is the point of contention: because younger workers get the same percentage rather than a larger one, the gap between them and older workers stops narrowing, and a manifesto promise to abolish age bands altogether recedes.

Dive deeper

The 2024 manifesto promised to remove “discriminatory age bands” so that all adults were entitled to the same minimum wage, and for two years the government delivered on it by raising the youth rate faster — 26% since 2024. An equal percentage rise does the opposite: in cash terms the gap widens. The business secretary’s defence is that timing was never promised: “The manifesto pledge on equalisation still applies but we were always clear it could happen over time.” A union leader called it “deeply unfair” to keep paying different rates for the same job. Two cautions belong with this. The specific rates in circulation — the 18-to-20 band going from £10.85 to about £11.27, and the rate for those 21 and over from £12.71 to £13.20 — originate with a newspaper that is not on our approved list and reach us only second-hand, so they are reported rather than confirmed. And the whole package remains a Budget expectation until the chancellor stands up tomorrow.

Warm Home Loans Open for Heat Pumps and Solar Panels

A government-backed loan scheme opened today offering households interest-free or low-interest borrowing from £7,500 to £35,000 to fit heat pumps, batteries and solar panels with no money upfront. The government says the full combination can cut a bill by up to £550 a year, and by a further £300 on a time-of-use tariff.

Dive deeper

This one is already live rather than trailed, which separates it from most of what is circulating this week. The borrowing is offered through commercial lenders at a discount to high-street rates: up to £10,000 for an air-source heat pump and up to £35,000 for a ground-source system, and it can be stacked on top of the existing grant of up to £9,000 towards replacing a fossil-fuel boiler. The case for it rests on bills rather than carbon, and there is a trial behind the claim — fuel-poor households in Coventry saved more than £250 a year on average by pairing a home battery with a tariff that charges less outside peak hours. The obvious caveat is that a loan is a debt: the saving has to outrun the repayment, and the published figures are the government’s own. Set it against gas at a four-year high and a forecast 16% rise in bills in January, and the arithmetic matters more than usual.

Minister and Spokesman Give Different Answers on Free Movement

The business secretary says officials will begin discussing the range of future options for the relationship with the European Union, free movement among them, before the summit in Brussels on 20 November. A government spokesman, the same day, said there are no current discussions on free movement. Both are on the record.

Dive deeper

That contradiction is tonight’s story and it is not a matter of emphasis. Pressed on whether officials are talking to Brussels about free movement, the business secretary said “they will be talking to them about what the future options for our relationship might be”, while insisting “here and now, the focus should be on the summit”. The spokesman’s formulation was that the government is working “on the areas set out and agreed ahead of the UK-EU Summit and within the manifesto red lines” — the summit agenda being food, youth mobility, electricity and emissions trading. A second ambiguity needs owning, because it touches what we published last night. Accounts of the prime minister’s own position differ: he answered “no” when a broadcaster asked whether he could bring in free movement without a referendum, which is what we reported, but a fuller account of his weekend interview has him saying a referendum would be needed only to rejoin the Union outright. Both renderings are in approved sources and we are not choosing between them. One hard thing did happen: ministers confirmed to the Commons that Britain rejoins the Erasmus exchange scheme in January.

Two Charged Over Alleged Iran-Linked Plot at RAF Fairford

Two British nationals, both 24 and from London, appeared at Westminster Magistrates’ Court today over an alleged plot at the American-operated airbase in Gloucestershire. One is charged with assisting a foreign intelligence service, which police have said they believe to be Iran; the other with entering a prohibited place for a purpose prejudicial to the United Kingdom.

Dive deeper

Both charges are brought under the National Security Act of 2023, the legislation that replaced the old official secrets regime, and the case will next be heard at the Old Bailey on 20 November. Nothing is proven and neither man has entered a plea. The background is a major incident declared on 27 September after three suspicious vans were seen near the base, which led to dozens of residents being evacuated behind a large cordon; the second charge relates to an earlier occasion, and no explosive material was found in the vans. The wider context is a run of incidents in Britain that police have attributed to Iranian direction, and the timing sits oddly alongside this week’s diplomacy, with Gulf states in Tehran pressing for a deal between Iran and Washington. A third man arrested in October, a dual national, was released without charge. Because these are live proceedings we are reporting the charges, the court dates and nothing more.

Two MPs and an MSP Detained and Turned Back by Israel

An SNP member of parliament, a Labour member and a Scottish Greens member of the Scottish Parliament say they were held for eight hours at the crossing from Jordan and refused entry to the West Bank. Israel’s embassy says the group gave false information about the purpose of its visit.

Dive deeper

The three travelled as part of a 23-strong delegation and say they intended to “stand alongside Palestinians being attacked for harvesting olives on their own land”. By their account their passports were seized at the King Hussein Bridge, they were interviewed one by one, and were eventually put on a bus back to the Jordanian border; one said she was told there was “evidence that I hate Israel” and that this was among the reasons for refusing her. The embassy’s account is squarely opposed: the group “failed to cooperate with border officials” and provided “false information about the purpose of their visit”. Both versions are given here because neither can be checked. The foreign secretary told the Commons the government was “deeply concerned”, had raised it with Israeli authorities, and that it was “very, very important” that members of the House have free access internationally to do their duties. One caution: this rests on a single approved outlet, with no second source and nothing published by the Foreign Office.

One To Read

Weeds, and Then a Ceasefire

BBC News · Oleshky has been occupied and blockaded since the first days of the invasion. Of 24,000 people before the war, about 1,700 are thought to remain in the city. A truce began at three this morning and both sides say it is holding.

☀️

Morning Briefing

Tuesday 27 October 2026 — 08:02 GMT

What It Means For You

If you do the weekly shop: import tariffs come off more than 100 products, from baked beans and chocolate to marmalade. Combined with June’s cuts on pasta, fruit juice and tuna, the government puts the saving at up to £21 a household a year — modest, and dependent on retailers passing it on.
If you are an unpaid carer who works: earning a penny over the weekly limit will no longer cost you the whole week’s carer’s allowance. Instead £1 tapers away for every £1 earned above it, to be confirmed in Wednesday’s Budget.
If you drive for work: the 55p-a-mile tax-free rate for the first 10,000 business miles becomes permanent, and the rate above that rises from 25p to 35p. The Treasury says about three million people benefit; fuel duty is also expected to be frozen again.

GEO Geopolitical

Israel Votes With Netanyahu and Eisenkot Neck and Neck

Polls opened this morning in Israel’s first general election since the 7 October attacks, with Benjamin Netanyahu in a near neck-and-neck race against the former military chief Gadi Eisenkot. Neither bloc is projected to reach the 61 seats needed for a majority, so weeks or months of coalition bargaining may follow.

Dive deeper

Voters choose parties for the 120-seat Knesset, not a prime minister, which is why a clear result tonight is unlikely. Eisenkot leads Yashar, a new centre-right party, at the head of a “change bloc” that includes Naftali Bennett, Avigdor Lieberman and Yair Golan; Mr Netanyahu needs the far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties again. Security dominated the campaign, and in its final days he was reported to have pressed for action against Iran, which he denies. One analyst expects a change of tone rather than direction: “A new prime minister is likely to calm things down,” said Ahron Bregman of King’s College London, adding that “any new government will reflect and mirror this reality” of a sharp turn to the right.

Tehran Talks End in Pledge as Houthis Fire at Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan agreed with Iran late on Monday “to continue the dialogue” on regional security, after their defence and intelligence chiefs met Iran’s president in Tehran. Within hours the Saudi-led coalition said it had intercepted three Houthi ballistic missiles aimed at the Eastern Province and four drones. Brent eased to about $115 on the diplomacy.

Dive deeper

Riyadh sent its defence minister, Prince Khalid bin Salman; Pakistan its army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir; Turkey its intelligence chief, Ibrahim Kalin. Saudi Arabia said the aim was to “prevent the return of military escalation”. The difficulty is plain: the Houthis struck Riyadh’s airport this month, killing at least 13, and on Monday claimed attacks on oil pumping stations, while Egypt’s parliament authorised its military to help defend the kingdom. Pakistan and Qatar brokered June’s interim deal between Washington and Tehran, which collapsed. Oil reflects both pulls: Brent touched $117 on Monday, its highest since April, before slipping 0.57% to $115.15 in early Asian trade, and October has been the worst month for attacks on shipping around Hormuz.

Melania Trump’s One-City Truce Takes Effect in Occupied Oleshky

A local ceasefire began overnight in the Russian-occupied city of Oleshky, on the Dnipro in Kherson region, a week after it was announced by the US First Lady. Both Kyiv and Moscow say it is holding. It is meant to let aid in and allow civilians out, with an evacuation planned for Friday.

Dive deeper

Russia’s defence ministry said it stopped firing at 01:00 GMT. Ukraine’s human rights commissioner, Dmytro Lubinets, confirmed it: “As head of the Ukrainian negotiating team, I confirm that the Ukrainian side is honouring its commitments.” Oleshky had 24,000 people before the war; Ukrainian estimates of those left vary, from about 1,700 in the town to 6,000 including surrounding areas, and residents describe cooking garden weeds. There has been no electricity, gas or water for three years. Some fear Russia will not let evacuees reach Ukraine, or will search their phones. The truce is narrow: the same day Russia struck Kyiv, killing a woman of 46, and claimed 222 Ukrainian drones downed.

Western Powers Warn of Famine in Sudan as Nyala Is Struck

The United States, the European Union and 30 countries, Britain among them, warned of an “alarming deterioration” in Sudan’s food security and urged both sides to lift impediments to aid. Hours later a drone strike on a market in Nyala, the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces’ de facto capital, killed at least 21 people.

Dive deeper

The joint statement, released by the State Department, warns that without immediate action the number of children with severe acute malnutrition “could exceed the projected 825,000”, and asks for access across front lines and by air into Darfur. The UN-backed hunger monitor said in June that 5.1 million Sudanese faced severe hunger, with an El Niño drought driving up prices. A medic at Nyala Hospital said 21 were killed and more than 40 injured on Monday evening; residents said the market was frequented by RSF fighters. The army regularly strikes the city, where the RSF has declared a rival administration. Washington said last month that neither side represents legitimate government.

Jordan Strikes Syria After Karak Church Attack; Border Shut

Jordanian jets struck what Amman called “terrorist organisations” in Syria’s Daraa province, retaliating for Friday’s shooting at a Christian funeral in Karak that killed nine. Syrian health officials said five people, including women and children, died. Damascus says it was not notified and has closed Nassib, the only passenger and commercial crossing between the two countries.

Dive deeper

The two accounts diverge on the essentials. Jordan says it coordinated with the Syrian government and killed and wounded “several terrorists”; Syria says it was not told and that civilians, including an elderly man, were among the dead. Damascus said the closure means “the complete suspension of passenger and commercial traffic in both directions” while it investigates. Complicating Amman’s case, its interior minister, Mazen al-Faraya, said the three men arrested over the church attack — two brothers and their brother-in-law — were all Jordanian, found hiding in a village near the scene. Thirty-four were injured in the attack on the Greek Orthodox funeral.

UK UK Domestic Politics

Healey Cuts Food Tariffs and Freezes Fuel Duty Before Budget

The chancellor, John Healey, has unveiled five “everyday fixes” ahead of Wednesday’s Budget, removing import tariffs on more than 100 food products and making the 55p-a-mile business mileage rate permanent. Fuel duty is expected to be frozen again. “We can’t control global events, but we can act where we can make a difference,” he said.

Dive deeper

The measures are deliberately small, and the Treasury frames them that way: Mr Healey calls them “just a small part” of giving families breathing space, blaming conflict in the Middle East and Europe for higher everyday costs. The tariff package is the second this year; with June’s, the government expects consumer savings of roughly £245m to £595m a year. Other fixes extend two weeks’ paternity pay, worth up to £194 a week, to self-employed fathers, and add Post Office drop boxes. Treasury insiders warn the Budget itself will be low-key, with hard tax and spending choices deferred to next year’s spending review — a source of unease among Labour MPs who expected bigger change from Andy Burnham.

Carer’s Allowance Cliff Edge to Be Scrapped

The rule that strips unpaid carers of their whole weekly carer’s allowance for earning a penny over the limit is to be replaced by a taper, with £1 withdrawn for every £1 earned above it. The change follows years of reporting on carers left with debts running into thousands of pounds.

Dive deeper

The arithmetic of the old rule was brutal. The earnings limit is £204 a week and the allowance £86.45; a carer a penny over for a year would breach it by 52p yet owe £4,495.40. Overpayment debts typically ran to £2,000–£5,000 and in some cases £20,000, and some carers were convicted of fraud. An independent review by Liz Sayce, published last year, found hardship on a huge scale. The taper removes the penalty for working an extra shift or taking a pay rise It does not, however, raise the limit itself.

Alex Chalk to Lead Independent Review Into Henry Nowak Murder

The home secretary, Shabana Mahmood, has ordered an independent review into the murder of Henry Nowak, the 18-year-old student stabbed in Southampton last December, to be led by the former lord chancellor Alex Chalk KC. “We must get to truth of what happened before, during and after that awful night,” she told the Commons.

Dive deeper

The case drew national scrutiny after police bodycam footage showed the teenager handcuffed as he lay dying, having told officers he was injured. The review runs in two phases. The first examines police, health services, councils, schools and faith organisations for missed chances to intervene; Mr Chalk said it would ask whether reports were held back out of a “misplaced sense of cultural sensitivity”. The second waits for the police watchdog’s own investigation and will examine its conduct too. Initial findings are due within five months. The family welcomed it, saying they had “fought tirelessly for answers to questions no family should ever have to ask”.

Be Ready Call Drives Surge in Radio and Tinned Food Sales

Retailers report sharp rises in emergency purchases since the government urged households to prepare for crises. Iceland saw a 40% jump in tinned goods over the weekend; Robert Dyas a 160% rise in radio sales; Maplin a near-fourfold increase in torches. The defence secretary called it “encouraging that people are taking practical steps to be ready”.

Dive deeper

The campaign began on 22 October, when Wes Streeting advised three litres of water per person per day, tinned food, baby food, battery torches and power banks, citing threats from cyber attack to extreme weather. Iceland says its supplies remain healthy. Mr Streeting stresses the mundane: essentials help “whether that’s flooding, power cuts or burst pipes”. The timing lent it weight. Storm Boelo has left about 22,600 properties without power, two men were killed by falling trees, and the Met Office has urged people to keep torches and batteries ready.

Second DUP Figure Calls for O’Neill’s Removal as First Minister

The DUP assembly member Diane Forsythe has joined the MP Carla Lockhart in calling for Michelle O’Neill to be removed as Stormont’s first minister over her part in protests that blocked an Orange Order parade at Drumcree. “It is my view that Michelle O’Neill should be removed from office,” she wrote.

Dive deeper

The row is now inside the DUP as much as between parties. Ms Lockhart stepped down from the party’s officer board last week after its leader, Gavin Robinson, declined to withdraw the deputy first minister — the only route by which unionists could force Ms O’Neill from the joint office, since the posts stand or fall together. Ms Forsythe, also an officer, says “profound consequences” were promised and “must be honoured”. Ms O’Neill and other senior Sinn Féin figures have been interviewed by police over the Garvaghy Road protests; she says she will “continue to stand with the Garvaghy Road residents”.

One To Read

The Election That Cannot Change Course

Al Jazeera · Why even a Netanyahu defeat may alter Israel’s tone more than its direction: a long view of the rightward drift that shaped today’s vote, from the Nation-State Law to the judicial overhaul.

🌙

Evening Briefing

Monday 26 October 2026 — 17:51 GMT

What It Means For You

If you are on a western coast tonight: a yellow wind warning runs from six this evening until three tomorrow morning, with gusts to 65mph, and a second warning covers much of Scotland, northern England and Northern Ireland through Tuesday. Further power cuts are thought likely; keep a torch to hand.
If you are worried about winter bills: European wholesale gas has hit a four-year high and the British month-ahead contract its highest since December 2022, on cold weather, thin storage and Gulf supply fears. A 16% rise in a typical annual bill in January, to about £2,000, is a forecast rather than an announced cap.
If you have a hospital appointment in late November: senior doctors in England will strike on the 25th and 26th, staffing emergency care only. Routine and planned work is the part that gets postponed, against a backlog of more than six million patients.

GEO Geopolitical

Gulf Chiefs Meet Iran’s President and Agree to Keep Talking

Saudi Arabia’s defence minister, Pakistan’s army chief and Turkey’s intelligence chief met President Pezeshkian and the secretary of Iran’s supreme national security council in Tehran today. Iranian state television says the four agreed to continue talks after what it called a first meeting. No communique has been issued and the talks were still under way this evening.

Dive deeper

This is the meeting we reported this morning as a journey; it has now happened, and what it was for is clearer than what it achieved. The three visitors represent a mutual defence pact signed in August, and the agenda was twofold: how Iran might persuade the Houthis to stop striking Saudi infrastructure, and whether a deal between Tehran and Washington can be reached before fighting resumes. Riyadh’s statement put the aim as finding “ways to de-escalate tensions, enhance regional security and promote its stability”. Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman said the past two years had shown that “sustainable and reliable security in our region will only be possible by building trust and cooperation among the countries of the region”. A former foreign minister put it more sharply: “Regional security is not imported, it must be created by the people of this very region together.” One analyst called it an eleventh-hour attempt to tip the balance towards compromise, warning that without a formula to bridge the American-Iranian divide the visitors may leave with “little more than goodwill in a race against the clock”. Iran’s president was due in Moscow next for a gas exporters’ summit.

Trump Says He Is Choosing Between a Deal and Finishing It

Asked about Iran in a television interview on Sunday, the American president said he was weighing whether to make a deal or, in his words, “finish them off”. No date is attached to any of it. He has previously said strikes would not resume until after the midterm elections on 3 November, and Tehran responded by saying its policies are unchanged.

Dive deeper

We declined a version of this story this morning because two outlets had converted a refusal to answer into a date, and the caution holds up: both approved outlets carrying today’s remarks state plainly that he has said any strikes would wait until after 3 November, and the last confirmed American strikes on Iran were on 1 September. There is a second reason for care. Three outlets render the same sentence three different ways — “finish it off”, “finish them off” and “finish the job” — and two of them reverse the order of its clauses, so only the short common phrase is quoted here and no full sentence is presented as verbatim. Iran’s foreign minister answered on the record: “Recently, there has been talk of a new war, but I am already thinking about the post-war period. Whether there is war or not, our policies remain the same.” His spokesman, asked about tomorrow’s Israeli election, said it made no difference who takes the helm. Watch 3 November, not this week.

UN-Mandated Inquiry Finds Crimes Against Humanity in West Bank

A three-member commission of inquiry established by the UN Human Rights Council has reported that Israeli authorities and forces have committed the crimes against humanity of extermination, torture, rape and other forms of sexual violence in the occupied West Bank. Israel’s mission in Geneva rejects the findings and demands the commission’s dissolution.

Dive deeper

Two points of precision matter here. The commission does not speak for the United Nations itself — it was mandated by the Human Rights Council in 2021 — and its remit covers harm caused by both Israeli and Palestinian security forces since October 2023, so this is not a one-sided inquiry. Its finding is that military operations, reinforced by sustained settler violence, amount to a “widespread and systematic attack” against civilians, with persecution “based on intersecting discriminatory grounds, with nationality, race and ethnicity at its core”, and that the authorities intended to collectively punish West Bank civilians. The report lands the day before Israel votes. Israel’s mission calls it part of a “misinformation campaign to demonise the State of Israel and portray its very existence as criminal”. The same commission found genocide in Gaza in September last year, a finding Israel also rejects. For scale, UN humanitarian figures record 1,143 Palestinians killed in the West Bank and East Jerusalem in the three years to 9 October, at least 250 of them children.

Church Says More Than Sixty Christians Killed in Oromia

The Ethiopian Orthodox Tewahedo Church says more than sixty people have been killed in a series of attacks on Christians across three areas of the Shirka district in Ethiopia’s Oromia region. A church official called it a massacre and said security forces arrived but could not stop the assault. The regional government says it will act.

Dive deeper

This rests on one approved outlet and one institutional claimant, which is said plainly rather than smoothed over: no second approved source carries it and no official death toll has been published, so the figure is the Church’s. What gives it weight is that the outlet has its own eyewitness reporting in Amharic, including a resident whose 75-year-old father was killed: “We were completely unprepared and had no prior knowledge. They surrounded us from all four directions.” Eyewitnesses say five of the dead were children, and a statement from the Holy Synod says twenty houses were burnt to the ground. That statement names no perpetrator. A local official blamed a newly formed rebel coalition that includes the Oromo Liberation Army, which has not commented on this attack and has denied carrying out previous ones — so the attribution is a single official’s, not a finding. The Church says attacks on Christians have been increasing and that it has raised concerns with government repeatedly, with “no solution”. A rights body counted 458 killed in the same area over four years.

Algeria Approves Its First Such Foreign Deployment Since 1973

Both chambers of Algeria’s parliament have approved sending troops to Niger to protect energy installations in the north, near the Libyan border. It would be the country’s first such deployment since it sent forces to Egypt during the 1973 Arab-Israeli war. Neither the timing nor the number of soldiers has been announced.

Dive deeper

For a state whose foreign policy has rested for half a century on not sending soldiers anywhere, this is the interesting part: the mission is explicitly commercial. A senator told reporters after the vote that “we are not sending our soldiers to wage war in Niger, but for a mission to secure economic infrastructure”, calling it an adaptation of doctrine to the Sahel. The infrastructure is Algeria’s own — its state energy company has signed an exploration agreement with Niger’s petroleum ministry, and a long-planned pipeline would carry Nigerian gas north through Niger. The upper house sat in emergency session on Sunday, where 148 of 174 senators voted in favour; one account calls the vote unanimous, which that figure contradicts, so the count is given instead. The deployment follows a visit to Algiers by Niger’s defence minister and a thaw after a rift that saw Niger recall its ambassador, and it comes after Algeria sent fighter jets to help put down a coup attempt against the general who took power in 2023. Algeria is Africa’s largest military spender.

UK Domestic

No 10 Pulls Back From the Prime Minister’s Referendum Answer

Asked by broadcasters whether he could introduce freedom of movement without a referendum, the prime minister answered “no”. Downing Street spent the afternoon qualifying it, saying he “isn’t proposing a return to freedom of movement or any option” and is “crucially not leaning either way”. Sources say no decision on a referendum has been taken.

Dive deeper

This morning we recorded that no Downing Street clarification existed; one now does, and it is worth reading closely because it narrows the question without closing it. A Downing Street spokesperson said the government would not “get ahead” of how to consult the public on major changes to the relationship with the European Union, that “the prime minister thinks the Brexit deal is not good enough”, and that any decision “will be for the British public to decide… What he wants to do first is have a conversation with the public. The process will follow.” The distinction being lost is this: he already accepts a referendum would be needed to rejoin the European Union in full, and the open question is whether the single market alone would need one. On that, officials say no decision exists. The constraints are real: he says he is committed to the 2024 manifesto, which ruled out free movement, single market membership and a customs union, and any change would need a mandate at a general election, due by 2029. What is new today is not a policy but the discovery that the mechanism itself is undecided.

Low-Income Pensioners to Be Shielded From Income Tax

The chancellor will use Wednesday’s Budget to protect pensioners on low incomes from income tax through a new allowance, honouring an existing pledge not to tax people whose only income is the state pension. From April 2027 the full new state pension reaches £13,036, above the £12,570 personal allowance frozen since 2021.

Dive deeper

This is the same story we carried this morning as reporting, and it has hardened, though not into an announcement: the Treasury has still not confirmed the mechanism’s details, and crucially it has not confirmed how many pensioners are affected, so the figure of about a million that circulated this morning remains unverified and is not repeated here. The arithmetic driving it is simple and was always going to arrive. The triple lock lifts the new state pension by the highest of inflation, earnings or 2.5%, giving 3.9% from April 2027, while the personal allowance has been frozen in cash terms for six years. The two lines were always going to cross, and they now have. The chancellor’s allies argue the point is administrative as much as financial: pensioners should not face a tax return to hand over a few pounds. Note also what Treasury sources concede — that this Budget will not involve the scale of tax and spending announcements seen from governments of either party in recent years. Two days to go.

Consultants in England to Strike for Two Days in November

Senior hospital doctors in England will walk out on 25 and 26 November, staffing emergency care only, in a dispute over pay and hours. Seventy-six per cent of those voting backed action on a turnout of just over half. The health secretary calls the strike irresponsible; hospital leaders warn patients face pain and inconvenience.

Dive deeper

The mandate is the contested ground. Seventy-six per cent of consultants who voted were in favour, but only just over half of eligible union members took part, and because nearly half of consultants are not members the government calculates that roughly one in five of all consultants employed in England voted to strike. The union’s case is that pay has fallen about a quarter in real terms since 2009-10, and that last week’s offer of 2.4% for next year was the last straw after a 5% rise this year. Its co-chairs said ministers had “time-and-time again kicked the can down the road” and that “that road has now run out”. The health secretary said discussions had been “constructive”, so the announcement was “disappointing”, and that striking would “place the health service under even greater pressure”. Pay figures differ by measure rather than by dispute: basic pay runs from £113,500 to £150,500, with an average of about £152,000 once extra payments are counted. Consultants last struck in 2023, for nine days. This time it falls as winter pressures build.

Two More Wind Warnings, and a Correction to This Morning

About 22,600 properties were still without power on Monday afternoon, down from 90,000 in the morning. Two further yellow wind warnings follow: one from six this evening until three tomorrow morning on western coasts, and a second across much of Scotland, northern England and Northern Ireland through Tuesday. This morning we called the coming storm Chloe. It has no name, and we were wrong to give it one.

Dive deeper

The correction first, because a named storm is the kind of thing readers act on. Boelo was the second named storm of the season, after Austen, and the forecaster has not named a third. The warnings now in force are unnamed. The warning we described this morning was real and its timing and area were right — much of Scotland, parts of northern England and Northern Ireland, from three on Tuesday morning — but the name attached to it was not in any source, and it should never have reached print. We are not giving an end time for it tonight: our two sources differ, one saying just before midnight and one nine in the evening. Gusts are forecast to reach 65mph on exposed coasts overnight and up to 70mph in the far north on Tuesday, with further power cuts thought likely and advice to keep torches and batteries to hand. Both power figures come from the Energy Networks Association a few hours apart, so the fall is repair work, not a revision; about 700,000 customers were reconnected across the weekend.

Britain Sanctions Fifteen Sudanese Commanders Over El Fasher

The government has imposed travel bans and asset freezes on fifteen commanders from both sides of Sudan’s war, suspected of sexual violence during the siege of El Fasher. It falls on the first anniversary of the city’s fall. The Foreign Office says it hopes the action will ensure the horrors there “will be known to the world”.

Dive deeper

Sanctioning both sides is the notable choice: the fifteen are drawn from the Rapid Support Forces and from the Sudanese Armed Forces, which makes this a statement about conduct rather than about which side Britain prefers. The scale of what happened at El Fasher is hard to hold. Up to 10,000 men, women and children are believed to have been killed over two days as the Rapid Support Forces took the city, ending an eighteen-month starvation siege. Fewer than 70,000 people are thought to remain, against a pre-war population of more than a million. One account opens with tens of thousands killed and later says up to 10,000; the lower, specific figure is used. The foreign secretary put it on the record: “A year on from the atrocities in El Fasher, UK-funded investigations have shown that rape and starvation are still being weaponised against the people of Sudan. These are crimes against our humanity.” Alongside the designations — a sixth round — come £5m for survivors of sexual violence and £10m for the wider humanitarian response. The paramilitaries were allegedly backed by the United Arab Emirates, which denies it.

One To Read

Sixty Million Shekels of Rubble

Al Jazeera · A ceramics factory of fifty years, a marble works and seventy jobs, counted up by the man who owned them. Hebron is about 42% of Palestinian output, and an economist puts the week's losses at up to 80 million shekels.

☀️

Morning Briefing

Monday 26 October 2026 — 08:42 GMT

What It Means For You

If you are in Scotland, northern England or Northern Ireland: a yellow wind warning for Storm Chloe runs from three tomorrow morning until just before midnight. About 33,500 Scottish properties are still off supply from the last storm, and the larger network says it cannot guarantee everyone is reconnected before Chloe arrives.
If you are waiting on Wednesday’s Budget: reporting says about a million pensioners will be taken out of income tax by a new allowance, and that the tax-free pension lump sum survives. None of it is confirmed, and published estimates of the chancellor’s headroom range from £12bn to £23.6bn.
If you are at risk of homelessness or work with people who are: a further £432m takes the rough sleeping commitment to about £874m, extended to the end of this Parliament. It buys an offer of accommodation or support rather than a guaranteed home, and it is the only Budget measure so far published rather than briefed.

GEO Geopolitical

Vucic Concedes to a Student Movement Without a Final Count

Aleksandar Vucic has conceded Serbia’s parliamentary election to the leaderless student list that grew out of two years of protest, telling supporters: “We still do not have final results… it is clear that we have lost these elections.” The electoral commission put turnout at 64.9% two hours before polls closed, the highest in decades.

Dive deeper

He conceded before the count finished, and that matters: the electoral commission has published no seat figures at all, so every number in circulation — projections of 134 to 141 seats for the students against 103 to 106 for his party, on a threshold of 126 — is a projection rather than a result. He conceded on his own party’s sample. The turnout figure is the commission’s preliminary count to six o’clock local time; one monitor put it at 67.6% an hour later. A high turnout was expected to favour the students, and did. The movement has no leader by design: its 250 candidates were chosen by university faculty assemblies and none had held office, so the question is whether a structure built to protest can form a government. The name circulating for prime minister is Dejan Soskic, a former governor of the national bank, who stood twenty-seventh on the list. He called the snap election himself, after two years of protest triggered by the collapse of a railway station canopy at Novi Sad which killed sixteen. Barred from a third presidential term, he had stood down to run for prime minister. Celebrations erupted in Belgrade as he conceded.

Lula Wins a Fourth Term but Bolsonaro Demands Annulment

With every vote counted Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva took 51.79% to Flávio Bolsonaro’s 48.21%, a margin of 4.4 million, having narrowly lost the first round three weeks ago. His opponent has refused to concede and asked for the result to be annulled.

Dive deeper

The two results of the weekend sit oddly together and the contrast is the point. In Belgrade a long-serving leader conceded before the count had finished; in Brasília a candidate refused to accept a completed count and asked for it to be voided. Brazil’s electoral authority had confirmed the outcome before that demand was made. His stated ground is a judge’s decision, taken three minutes before polls were due to shut, to extend voting by two hours — a decision his own campaign had also requested, citing heavy rain in the south where he was favoured. The history makes the margin remarkable: never before in Brazil’s democratic era has the runner-up of a first round gone on to win the presidency. Lula had trailed 47% to 45% three weeks ago. He turns eighty-one tomorrow, serving a fourth non-consecutive term; his opponent is forty-five, and his father is serving twenty-seven years over a coup plot. Addressing supporters in a São Paulo conference hall he framed it as a verdict rather than a victory: “We are going to change the way that this country is governed… This election was a defeat for denialism… it was democracy that made this happen.”

Hebron Mayor Calls Mass Displacement Collective Punishment

Nearly 2,000 Palestinians — 370 families by the municipality’s count — have been driven from the Ein Deir Baha district of Hebron after two Israeli soldiers were killed at a checkpoint on Friday. The city’s mayor, Yousef al-Jabari, calls it “collective punishment”. The army says those who wished to evacuate were permitted to leave temporarily; residents say they were ordered out.

Dive deeper

Israel votes tomorrow, and the connection is not incidental: the prime minister’s coalition is narrowly trailing with two days of campaigning left, and he has warned of operations in the West Bank on a scale not seen in nearly sixty years of occupation. The strongest evidence against the voluntary framing comes from Israel’s own defence minister, who put the number forcibly displaced at “about 2,000” and said they “will not be allowed to return to their neighbourhood until we’ve finished dealing with all the Hamas issues in Hebron”. The industrial district nearest Friday’s attack has been flattened — car workshops, a ceramics plant, nothing left but rubble. An imam woken at midnight by loudspeakers moved thirty relatives out and was telephoned by a neighbour telling him not to come back; a man of seventy-seven was given ten minutes, and his villa now flies Israeli flags as an army headquarters. The army says the two thousand belong to a clan it associates with Hamas; residents number that clan at 150 at most. All West Bank crossings shut to Palestinians tomorrow. They have no vote in it.

Saudi, Turkish and Pakistani Chiefs Fly to Tehran Today

Defence and intelligence chiefs from the three Mecca pact states travel to Tehran today for a joint meeting, confirmed by both Saudi and Iranian officials. It is the first high-level contact between Iran and all three members since the Houthis escalated attacks on Saudi Arabia last month. Riyadh frames the visit as de-escalation and support for mediation.

Dive deeper

The named travellers give the measure of it: Saudi Arabia’s defence minister, Pakistan’s military chief and Turkey’s intelligence chief, meeting an Iranian delegation led by the secretary of the supreme national security council. The pact they represent was signed in August and treats an armed attack on one member as an attack on all, its first article committing the parties to “all necessary means”; Pakistan ratified it last week and Turkey’s parliament has begun and not finished doing so. Two things make the trip awkward. Pakistan’s military chief was in Tehran only last week and was told there would be no talks with Washington until Iran’s demands were met — and Pakistan has been the main channel between the two since February, having brokered a June agreement that collapsed within weeks. Meanwhile the alliance is arming against Iran’s closest regional ally: an emergency meeting in Riyadh this month agreed the “rapid deployment” of forces to Saudi Arabia, and Saudi air defences intercepted another wave of missiles and drones on Sunday. Watch whether anything is published afterwards, or whether the meeting is the message.

Zelensky Says Three-Way Talks Will Happen in November

President Zelensky says a trilateral meeting with Washington and Moscow will take place in November to restart stalled peace talks, speaking in a Sunday interview. Ukraine will not discuss limits on its armed forces or enforced postwar neutrality there, he says. He renewed his call for a direct meeting with President Putin.

Dive deeper

Neither Washington nor Moscow has confirmed the meeting, so it rests on the president’s word rather than on any announcement by the other two parties. His division of the agenda is the substantive part: territory belongs at leadership level, everything else to technical groups, which is why he keeps pressing for Mr Putin in the room on the grounds that nobody else in Russia can settle it. Two American levers moved in his favour over the weekend. Warnings of incoming ballistic strikes, which feed directly into air defence, have been fully restored, and the Starshield satellite service throttled earlier this month is working again since Saturday, after he met the American special envoy in Oslo. Washington wants Ukraine to stop striking Russian refineries because it lifts energy prices; he will stop if Moscow spares the power grid, or if he may use Starshield over Russia to find launch sites, or if Patriots arrive. He counted about 1,600 guided bombs and almost 2,300 strike drones against Ukraine in a week. Bulgaria’s presidential election, meanwhile, went to a run-off on 1 November between a pro-Western reformist and the incumbent, who opposes military aid to Ukraine.

UK Domestic

Two Dead in Boelo as Storm Chloe Arrives Tomorrow

A second man has died in Storm Boelo: a driver in his twenties killed when a tree fell on his car in north London at twenty to one on Sunday, two hours after a 60-year-old was struck near Castle Douglas. About 33,500 Scottish properties are still without power, and a third named storm arrives tomorrow.

Dive deeper

Storm Chloe brings a yellow wind warning running from three tomorrow morning until just before midnight — twenty-one hours covering much of Scotland, parts of northern England and Northern Ireland. It lands before the repairs are finished, and the head of customer operations at the larger Scottish network said he could not guarantee reconnections would be complete before it arrives. The outstanding figure splits as roughly 29,000 in the north of Scotland and 4,500 in the south and centre; Northern Ireland is down to fewer than a thousand from a peak of 12,500. Almost 100,000 Scottish properties were restored over the weekend. Two women remain in hospital after a tree fell at Aberfeldy. Five Aberdeenshire primary schools closed today for want of power and a secondary for damage, two Highland rail lines remain shut, a care home was evacuated at Saltcoats and fifteen people were helped from a flooded caravan park at Ballantrae. England has ten flood warnings and 65 alerts this morning, Scotland ten and eleven, Wales nine alerts. Police Scotland say disruption is likely to run well beyond the expired amber warning.

Rough Sleeping Fund Doubles to £874m With a Summit Today

The government will put a further £432m into ending rough sleeping, confirmed at Wednesday’s Budget and roughly doubling the £442m already committed. Support extends beyond March 2027 to the end of this Parliament. The first Downing Street summit on rough sleeping is held today.

Dive deeper

This is the one new Budget measure actually published rather than briefed, and the prime minister framed it as a choice rather than a target: “Rough sleeping isn’t a fact of life. It’s a thing governments either choose to accept or don’t. Well I don’t accept it.” The housing secretary conceded the scale of the ambition — “This is a big ambition — we know that. But we will not back down” — and a housing federation is to identify at least 2,000 homes and bedspaces, with more than thirty organisations signing pledges. Three caveats belong with it. The commitment is an offer of accommodation and or support rather than a guarantee of housing, and it is not yet clear how many of those 2,000 are self-contained homes. “Doubling” is approximate, since £432m is marginally less than the £442m it follows. And the backdrop is 4,793 people recorded sleeping rough on a single night in England last autumn, the highest since the count began in 2010. The shadow housing secretary noted the prime minister missed his own pledge to end rough sleeping in Greater Manchester by 2020.

Pensioners Reported Shielded From Tax as Budget Nears

Reporting two days before the Budget says about a million pensioners will be shielded from income tax by a new personal allowance, because the full state pension is set to rise above the £12,570 threshold. The chancellor is also said to have rejected cutting the tax-free pension lump sum. None of it is confirmed.

Dive deeper

A former pensions minister calls the shape of it “decidedly pensioner-friendly”, and two outlets carry it consistently, which is as strong as briefing gets without becoming announcement. Also reported ruled out: any rise in capital gains tax, and extending the mansion tax to properties worth £1.5m, which stays at £2m from April 2028. Reported in: making online marketplaces responsible for collecting their traders’ tax, funding a business rates cut that would lift the small-company threshold from £12,000 to £18,000, and raising the income limits on the new first-time buyer scheme to £110,000, or £140,000 in London. The number to watch on Wednesday is the headroom, and the published estimates diverge sharply: the official forecaster had £23.6bn in March, one accountancy firm now says £12bn and a think tank £20bn. The government’s own publication service carries none of this. What the chancellor has said on the record is narrow: that he and the prime minister are “in lockstep in our determination to meet the fiscal rules with a buffer”.

Cabinet Reported Split Over the Rosebank Oil Decision

The chancellor is reported to favour approving the Rosebank oil field and the energy secretary to oppose it, with the prime minister deciding if they cannot agree. She holds the decision. Nothing has been published, and her department still says no decision has been taken.

Dive deeper

We have now reported this four times without a decision, and the sourcing deserves stating plainly rather than smoothing: the chancellor’s position is unnamed and inferred, resting on “it is understood”, though it is consistent with his on-record remarks about North Sea revenues feeding the new energy wealth fund. The energy secretary’s position is the only one on the record, and it is a distinction rather than a refusal: “One is a gasfield that caters for the domestic market, while the other is an oilfield that is mainly for export.” Officials say she has not decided. Downing Street declined to comment. The scale is what makes it hard: Rosebank would emit roughly seven times the carbon of Jackdaw, which was approved last Wednesday, and its consent was ruled unlawful by the Court of Session last year for failing to account for the emissions of burning the fuel. A second approved outlet carries the same split with the same alignment, also on unnamed sourcing for the chancellor’s side.

Board of Deputies Declares the Greens a Racist Party

The Board of Deputies of British Jews has voted by 118 to one to declare that the Green Party has “by adopting an antisemitic platform, become a racist party”, and urged other parties not to make deals with it. The Green leader says he will not overturn the policy.

Dive deeper

The Board’s president put the objection in terms of identity rather than policy: “No political party has the right to tell Jews that a central part of our identity, rooted in thousands of years of history, faith and peoplehood, is racist… It gives prejudice against Jews a political licence.” Its motion says that parties entering coalition with the Greens would be failing to take antisemitism “with the requisite seriousness”, which raises the stakes under the ultimatum Labour issued to nine councils where the Greens are partners. The Green response rejects the characterisation, denies discriminating against people who hold Zionist views, and says the decision “will not stop us from speaking out against the genocide in Gaza” — a description Israel denies. Zack Polanski, who leads the party and is himself Jewish, did not vote on the original motion and has said he will not overturn it; it stands as party policy until 2028. Labour’s national executive has not met, and no council group is reported to have answered the deadline that fell yesterday.

One To Read

Ten Minutes to Leave

The Guardian · Three reporters in Hebron find the imam woken at midnight and telephoned by a neighbour telling him not to come back, and the man of 77 given ten minutes to go from a villa that now flies Israeli flags. The army says those who wanted to leave were permitted to.

🌙

Evening Briefing

Sunday 25 October 2026 — 18:08 GMT

What It Means For You

If you are travelling in Scotland, Northern Ireland or northern England: the amber wind warning ends at nine tonight, but CalMac has cancelled 24 of its 30 services, some until Monday. A yellow wind warning has already been issued for Tuesday, from 03:00 until midnight.
If you owe HMRC money: existing powers already let it take debts of more than £1,000 directly from your bank account, provided at least £5,000 is left. Reports say Wednesday’s Budget will widen that sharply; the Treasury has not confirmed it.
If you are bracing for tax rises on Wednesday: the chancellor and the prime minister have insisted they will keep the manifesto promise not to raise income tax, VAT or employee national insurance. A higher levy on bank profits is expected but not confirmed.

GEO Geopolitical

Trump Rules Out a Strike on Iran “Today” as Netanyahu Warns Tehran

Donald Trump told reporters at Joint Base Andrews this afternoon: “The answer is no. There will not be a strike today.” Hours earlier he had asked in a television interview, “do I make a deal with them, or do I finish them off?” Benjamin Netanyahu, two days before Israel votes, warned Iran: “Don’t test us. You will suffer disproportionate blows.”

Dive deeper

The two leaders pulled in opposite directions on the same afternoon. Mr Netanyahu, speaking at an Arrow anti-missile battery, said Israel had “intelligence signs that Iran and its proxies could challenge us with attacks in order to disrupt the elections”; he published no evidence. The Times of Israel reports that the military’s chief of staff, Lt Gen Eyal Zamir, recently saw no operational need to strike Iran before the vote. Tehran’s line was flat: the foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said “Whether there is war or not, our policies remain the same.” Qatari mediators are reported to be in Tehran, though no official has been named. The president’s pledge covered today only.

Houthi Missiles Intercepted Over Mecca Province as Gulf States Protest

Saudi Civil Defence says shrapnel from two intercepted ballistic missiles, suspected to have been fired by Yemen’s Houthis, fell in Jeddah, Taif and Rabigh in Mecca province. A drone and a missile were also downed over Riyadh, where international flights resumed today from Terminal 2. The Houthis deny targeting Muslim holy sites.

Dive deeper

The Gulf Cooperation Council’s secretary-general, Jasem AlBudaiwi, called the strikes “a grave violation of the sanctity of the Holy Sites and a provocation to the sentiments of Muslims worldwide”. The coalition separately reports ten ballistic missiles intercepted over the south and a cruise missile aimed at Khamis Mushait. Every figure is one side’s claim: the Riyadh interceptions are corroborated by two outlets, the Mecca ones by only one. The Houthi military spokesman claims seven operations against Saudi oil facilities and bases. Britain committed RAF Typhoons to defensive counter-air missions over the kingdom on Tuesday, with the defence secretary, Wes Streeting, calling the Houthi attacks “absolutely despicable”.

Machado Returns to Venezuela After Months in Exile

María Corina Machado, the Nobel peace laureate and Venezuelan opposition leader, has returned home after more than ten months abroad and appeared at a church in Lara state this afternoon, surrounded by supporters. No arrest or security response has been reported. How she entered the country is not known.

Dive deeper

Her ally Edmundo González said: “Today is a very important day for Venezuelans. Our sovereign voice returns with her to lead and guide this process!” The return is awkward for Washington, which the Guardian reports had opposed it as a complication in its relationship with the interim president, Delcy Rodríguez, installed after the United States seized Nicolás Maduro in January. Donald Trump said: “I don’t know anything about it, but I think she’s a very nice woman. She gave me her Nobel prize, so how can I say anything else?” Neither Ms Rodríguez nor her government has responded. Ms Machado has said she would run for president if an election were held.

Serbia Reports Record Early Turnout in Student Challenge to Vučić

Early reports put Serbian turnout at 46% by 13:00 GMT, nearly a million votes ahead of the same point in 2023, in a contest between Aleksandar Vučić’s governing party and a leaderless student list. Polls close at 19:00 GMT, with first indications about two hours later. Bulgaria’s presidential polls closed at 18:00 GMT.

Dive deeper

The 46% figure comes from preliminary reports that name no electoral body as their source. Commentators suggest a final turnout of 65% or more would favour the students; a Thursday poll had the governing party ahead by 47% to 40%, though others have put the students in front. Zarko Korac, a former deputy prime minister, warned: “if Vučić declares victory this evening, probably late in the evening, I don’t think the students will accept that.” In Bulgaria, among 27 candidates, the incumbent Iliana Iotova led the pro-Western Andrey Gyurov by 41% to 28% in pre-election polling; turnout below 40% was expected, which would force a run-off on 1 November.

Brazil Votes in a Run-off Between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro

Brazilians are voting in a presidential run-off between Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, 80, who lost the first round, and the far-right senator Flávio Bolsonaro, 45. Polls close at 20:00 GMT and results are expected within hours. The first-round gap was the narrowest ever recorded, at less than 2% of the vote.

Dive deeper

After voting in Rio de Janeiro, Mr Bolsonaro said: “I think the time has come for real change. Brazil can’t take another four years the way things are.” Mr Lula, voting in São Bernardo do Campo, said of the rallies that swept the country in his support: “What the people have done for me in these past few days is something I can never repay.” The challenger is the eldest son of Jair Bolsonaro, who is under house arrest serving 27 years for attempting a coup, and has promised to pardon him. Abstention reached a record in the first round, so Lula’s campaign has concentrated on turnout among an electorate of about 159 million.

UK UK Domestic Politics

Storm Boelo Kills a Man as 82,600 Properties Lose Power

A 60-year-old man was killed by a falling tree on a minor road near Castle Douglas in Dumfries and Galloway at about 10:30 this morning, Police Scotland said. The Energy Networks Association put 82,600 properties without power today, with 344,900 reconnected. Gusts reached 85mph at Machrihanish. The amber warning for Scotland and northern England runs until 21:00.

Dive deeper

Police Scotland said there were “no suspicious circumstances and a report will be submitted to the procurator fiscal in due course”. Two women were taken to hospital after a tree fell in Aberfeldy. By 17:00 about 53,000 homes in Scotland remained cut off, according to the two Scottish distributors. Ferries took the brunt of the travel disruption: CalMac cancelled 24 of its 30 services, some until Monday. There is little respite. Another deep low is forecast for Monday and Tuesday, and a yellow wind warning has already been issued for Scotland, parts of Northern Ireland and northern England from 03:00 on Tuesday until midnight. Whether it will be named is undecided.

Rayner Backs Burnham’s Call for a Debate on EU Free Movement

Angela Rayner, the housing secretary, has defended the prime minister’s call for an honest discussion about free movement as “just pragmatism”, saying “you can’t take anything off the table when you’re having a conversation”. She said any change would be put to the public at a general election. Kemi Badenoch called it “another example of Burnham’s foot-in-mouth syndrome”.

Dive deeper

Ms Rayner’s case was economic rather than ideological: “We haven’t got the best deal at the moment because we’ve seen exports reduced by 20 per cent.” She was careful to add that the prime minister “is not saying we’re going back to where we were in 2016”. The risk lies on Labour’s red-wall benches, where Jonathan Hinder, the MP for Pendle, recently pressed the prime minister to rule a return out. Nigel Farage called it a “total betrayal of Brexit Britain”. The prime minister meets EU leaders, including Ursula von der Leyen, in Brussels on 20 November.

Ipsos Puts Labour on 32% With Reform Slipping to Third

An Ipsos poll puts Labour on 32%, its highest rating since the 2024 election, with the Conservatives on 24% and Reform UK on 20%. That is the Conservatives’ biggest lead over Reform since the election. A year ago Reform was polling above 30% and Nigel Farage was favourite to become prime minister.

Dive deeper

Keiran Pedley, research director at Ipsos, said “The Labour Party under Andy Burnham is resurgent, consolidating voters on the left behind them”, and that on the right “the tectonic plates have been shifting”. He cautioned that “we should be mindful against overreacting to one poll.” Electoral Calculus projects a Labour majority of 134 on these figures. Reform’s slide follows a run of inquiries, including a standards investigation into a £5m donation to Mr Farage and police investigations into Richard Tice and Robert Jenrick. The poll lands three days before a Budget Mr Pedley calls challenging.

Budget Trail Would Let HMRC Take Unpaid Tax From Bank Accounts

HMRC would be allowed to take money directly from the current and savings accounts of people who fail to pay their tax, under plans The Times reports are due in Wednesday’s Budget. The shadow chancellor, Andrew Griffith, called the move “absurd”. The Treasury declined to confirm, saying tax decisions are for the chancellor at fiscal events.

Dive deeper

The power exists already, but narrowly: since 2015 HMRC has been able to recover debts of more than £1,000, provided at least £5,000 is left, and the threshold could reportedly fall to a few pounds for repeat non-payers. Britain’s tax debt stands at £60bn. The Association of Taxation Technicians wants safeguards first. The wider trail — a higher bank levy, VAT collected by online marketplaces — is reporting, not announcement. James Smith of ING says an early election is “under priced”, calling the eye-catching pledges “the sort of thing you do if you’re going to do an early election”.

Suspended Former Tory Candidate Worked in Badenoch’s Office

Jack Ross, the former Conservative candidate suspended after being filmed discussing the cost of hiring contract killers, worked as a consultant in Kemi Badenoch’s office as recently as 2025. Sources close to the Conservative leader say he was a junior external social media consultant. The party says his membership is suspended pending an investigation.

Dive deeper

The office of the leader of the opposition can draw on taxpayer funds to pay staff, which is why the detail matters. A Tory staffer said: “He would have been in the same room as Kemi and she would have been aware of him.” Accounts of his role differ: the BBC was told on Saturday that he did paid social media work for the party until earlier this year and was never an employee. Police in Scotland say they will review the documentary in which he was filmed; no one has been charged. Mr Ross, chief executive of Turning Point UK, has not responded to requests for comment.

One To Read

A Unique Experiment in European History

BBC News · Serbia’s students are trying to unseat a government with 250 candidates, no leader and no political experience. What happens if they win — and what happens if they are told they have lost.

☀️

Morning Briefing

Sunday 25 October 2026 — 08:22 GMT

What It Means For You

If you are in Scotland or northern England: an amber wind warning runs until nine tonight, and Northern Ireland’s expires at ten this morning. Five Scottish A-roads are closed, almost all island ferry sailings are cancelled, and one operator reports disruption on 21 of its 39 routes.
If you are waiting for social housing: the Treasury has trailed more than £1bn for social and affordable homes in England at Wednesday’s Budget, taking its ten-year programme past £40bn. It is on the record from the chancellor but is not yet a published government document.
If you claim benefits or draw a pension: April’s uprating is already fixed by September’s inflation figure. The single person’s universal credit allowance rises 4.3% to £102.28 a week, the new state pension 3.9% to £250.70, and most working-age benefits 3.5%. Local housing allowance stays frozen in cash terms.

GEO Geopolitical

Musk Says SpaceX Throttled Starlink Over Ukrainian Drone Strikes

Elon Musk has said his company restricted Starlink in Ukraine because its military “violated Starlink terms of service and used it for offensive drone strikes to kill people”, adding that the loophole “was closed last week”. It is the first acceptance of responsibility after a week of denials. President Zelensky says speeds are now restored.

Dive deeper

The admission is narrower than it first appears, and the distinction is the story. Mr Musk owns the restriction on Starlink, the commercial service, and justifies it: “Using Starlink, a civilian commercial service, for offensive drone strikes to kill people has never been allowed, nor should it be.” But he continues to disclaim the military network: “Starshield, a different system, is controlled by the US government. What they decide to do is up to them.” So responsibility for one network is now claimed and for the other still is not. Until yesterday the denials formed a closed circle, with the American president saying it was not him and that he did not think it was Mr Musk, the secretary of state saying the administration cannot direct a private company, and Mr Musk saying any limits were decided by the military “and ultimately” the president. Ukraine’s own account was that SpaceX acted on a “message from the American government”. While the cap held for more than a week, Kyiv says combat missions failed, drone interception was degraded and Russian missiles arrived without warning. Mr Musk also claimed SpaceX “has done more to defend Ukraine than any private company on Earth”.

Israel to Seal All West Bank Crossings on Election Day

The Israeli military will close every land crossing in the occupied West Bank on Tuesday, when Israel votes, and bar Palestinian workers from entering settlements from today. Hebron remains under blockade. The defence minister says about 2,000 displaced residents will not return until the operation ends.

Dive deeper

Israel Katz made the displacement open-ended by ministerial decision rather than court order: “They will not be allowed to return to their neighbourhood until we’ve finished dealing with all the Hamas issues in Hebron.” How many people that covers is disputed. He says about 2,000; the mayor of Hebron says 2,200; an Israeli rights group counts around 240 families cleared from two neighbourhoods, which is broadly compatible with both. The mayor’s reading of the timing is blunt: the city faces “a complete blockade” and the operation is “driven by the elections”, with ministers “attempting to secure the votes of the far right and the settlers”. One thread we have now followed for three editions remains loose. A narrow court order halting demolitions, obtained on Friday by two factory owners, has still not been reported as upheld, lifted or ruled upon by any source we can read. The only new material is one resident’s allegation that it was disregarded — “A court decree was in place that should have prevented any demolition… They demolished and took me out by force” — which is his account and not a finding. More than 100,000 Palestinians held work permits before October 2023.

Saudi Defences Down a Missile Over Riyadh as Its Airport Reopens

The Saudi-led coalition says air defences intercepted a ballistic missile fired at Riyadh overnight. The capital’s international airport is reopening today after a fortnight closed, and a flight left early this morning. A Houthi spokesman immediately warned that the airport remains “unsafe” and a “military target”.

Dive deeper

That sequence — an interception, a reopening and a threat within hours — is the state of this war in miniature. Everything in it is one party’s claim: the interception is the coalition’s, unverified independently, and the threat is the Houthis’ own. The confusion over Saturday’s missiles is worth recording rather than smoothing, because three accounts disagree about what was aimed at what. The coalition said two missiles were fired at Taif and Yanbu, which is what we published last night. Saudi civil defence said Mecca and Medina. The Houthis called that a “huge lie” and said their targets were three airports, oil infrastructure and an airbase. No independent account resolves it. What is not in dispute is the pattern: Yanbu is the Red Sea terminal through which Riyadh routes crude around the Strait of Hormuz, and the airport closure that has just ended lasted two weeks. Separately, two senior Iranian officials, one of them from the Revolutionary Guards, have told an American newspaper that Tehran is preparing to target United States diplomats and personnel, describing them as fair game.

Serbia Votes Today, With Brazil Choosing a President Tonight

Polls opened in Serbia at six this morning and close at seven tonight, with first indications about two hours later. A student movement born of two years of protest is level with the party that has governed since 2012. Brazil votes later today in a run-off that polling has tied.

Dive deeper

Serbian queues formed before polls opened in Belgrade and Novi Sad. One poll on Thursday put the governing party at 47% against the student list’s 40%, though others have had the students ahead; there is no turnout figure yet. The list has 250 candidates chosen by university faculty assemblies, none with political experience, and no leader, so the cardiologist at its head would not automatically become prime minister. Aleksandar Vucic gave up the presidency, being barred from a third term, to stand for prime minister. In Brazil the run-off follows a first round on 4 October in which Flavio Bolsonaro led Lula da Silva by 47% to 45%. Two polls published since disagree: one on Saturday had Bolsonaro ahead by 46.3% to 45%, another on Thursday had them level on 50% each. Nearly 159 million are registered. Lula drew very large crowds on Saturday at two separate rallies, in Rio and in São Paulo, though no police or independent estimate of either exists. Results should follow within hours of polls closing.

Obama Says the Iran War Handed Tehran Veto Power Over Hormuz

Campaigning in Ohio and Michigan nine days before the midterm elections, Barack Obama said the conflict with Iran had given Tehran “veto power” over the Strait of Hormuz. He called the election “our last best chance to at least rein in some of the foolishness of this administration”.

Dive deeper

The charge is more pointed than the usual campaign fare, because it is a former president arguing that the sitting administration has handed a hostile state leverage over a chokepoint through which a large share of the world’s seaborne oil passes — and it lands while Brent sits at a six-month high and Washington draws down embassy staff across the region. In Cleveland he reached for a longer indictment: after “two years of chaos and cruelty and corruption and incompetence”, voters should decide that “enough is enough”. He also found room for ridicule, asking of the refurbished White House: “What’s with all the gold?” President Trump was in Georgia the same day, telling supporters that “we’re in the golden age of America”, describing oil prices as temporarily high and pledging a payment of $5,000; he voted in West Palm Beach. The midterms fall on 3 November, which is also the date after which reported American and Israeli plans for renewed strikes on Iran are said to begin — reporting that rests on unnamed officials.

UK Domestic

Boelo Peaked at 85mph With Scotland’s Amber Warning Until Tonight

Storm Boelo peaked at 85mph overnight, recorded at Machrihanish in Argyll and at The Needles on the Isle of Wight. An amber wind warning covers most of Scotland and parts of northern England until nine tonight. Fourteen flood warnings are active in England, and five Scottish A-roads remain shut.

Dive deeper

The warning that expires first is Northern Ireland’s, at ten this morning. The Scottish one runs from nine last night to nine tonight — which, because the clocks went back, is 25 hours rather than the 24 being widely reported. Capel Curig in Conwy recorded 84mph, the second-highest gust in the country, and it sits in a yellow area rather than an amber one. On power, the clearest figure is that supply had been restored to 131,225 properties by seven o’clock last night; a separate count of 10,860 still disconnected this morning covers one distributor’s network in England and is not a United Kingdom total, since Scottish and Northern Irish supply is handled by other companies and no Scottish figure has been published. More than a thousand homes are off near Springfield in Fermanagh and more than a thousand near Bushmills. Rainfall reached 69mm at Liscombe in Somerset. One train operator reports disruption on 21 of its 39 routes, almost all ferry sailings to the Scottish islands are cancelled, and the forecast is for winds to ease in the south this afternoon and the north overnight.

Treasury Trails £1bn for Housing and New Borrowing for Mayors

Three days before the Budget the Treasury has trailed more than £1bn for social and affordable housing in England, taking its ten-year programme past £40bn, alongside £285m of transitional funding for local leaders and a £1.5bn borrowing facility from 2028. The chancellor says he is ending “fragmented bidding pots”.

Dive deeper

This arrived overnight as one briefing and was filleted into two stories by different desks, which is worth knowing because the housing money and the devolution package are the same announcement rather than two. It is on the record, with quotations from both the chancellor and the prime minister, but it is not yet a published government document. Andy Burnham’s framing was characteristically blunt: “I’m calling time on local leaders going cap in hand to Westminster. That is no way to run a country.” Also in the package: £150m to build capacity in strategic authorities, councils able to borrow from government at preferential rates for housebuilding, and from 2028 a share of income tax revenue handed directly to local areas. The Mayor of London says the borrowing could unlock the West London Orbital and extensions to the Bakerloo line. One awkwardness sits inside the same story: the Treasury’s own entrepreneurship adviser is resigning the day after the Budget, having told a newspaper that start-ups are treated as a “sideshow” at the “margins of economic policy”.

Burnham Wants an “Honest Discussion” on EU Free Movement

The prime minister has told a newspaper that Britain needs “a very factual, quite evidence-based debate” about free movement, saying the balance of migration has changed. He is declining to rule it out rather than proposing it: the manifesto red lines stand and he says fundamental change would need an election mandate.

Dive deeper

What he actually said is narrower than the headlines it has produced. Free movement “had very significant challenges associated with it”, but was “a type of immigration that perhaps wasn’t as difficult” as now — “revolving door migration where people would come and then go back is different”, mostly younger people going home after a few years. He set one hard limit: “I can’t see myself ever recommending anything that would involve joining the euro or Schengen.” His wider argument is about what was lost beyond movement, including access to European migration databases, which Britain’s own border security commander told members of parliament this week he would like to rejoin. The attack writes itself and both opposition parties have made it: the Conservatives say the public “voted to end free movement, and there can be no return to it”, while Reform calls it “a total betrayal”. The sharpest fact is biographical. Mr Burnham won Makerfield at a by-election in June, a seat that voted to leave in 2016, having promised not to re-run the argument. No figure in his own party has responded on the record.

Drumcree Rally Splits the DUP as Lockhart Demands O’Neill Go

Thousands gathered in Portadown in support of Orangemen banned from parading along the Garvaghy Road, in the first major rally since protesters blocked the route last month. The only politician to take the stage demanded the first minister’s removal — which would also remove her own party’s deputy first minister.

Dive deeper

Carla Lockhart stood down as a Democratic Unionist Party officer on Thursday and told the crowd that the party has it within its gift to remove Michelle O’Neill: “Profound consequences must mean profound consequences. Michelle O’Neill must go. That’s where I stand, and this lady is not for turning.” The constitutional catch is that the first and deputy first ministers cannot function independently of one another, so collapsing one post collapses both — including the office held by her own party colleague. The first minister took part in the Garvaghy Road protests and attended police interviews this week over her involvement. The parade was banned by the Northern Ireland secretary on security advice after a stand-off lasting nearly a fortnight. Speakers criticised the chief constable, the secretary of state and the first minister by name, and the unionist leaderships by implication; the loudest cheers went to the Order’s legal adviser and to Ms Lockhart. No attendance figure has been published by police or organisers, and the broadcaster covering it noted the crowd appeared to surprise even the organisers.

No Rosebank Decision as a Reporter Reaches the Field at Last

No decision on the Rosebank oil field has been published, and nothing on the government’s own service post-dates July. The energy secretary holds the call, which is larger than the Jackdaw approval granted on Wednesday, would emit more and could earn more. A journalist has now visited the vessel for the first time.

Dive deeper

We have now reported this story three times without a decision, which is itself the fact: the field was consented under the previous government in 2023, that consent was ruled unlawful by the Court of Session last year for failing to account for the emissions from burning the fuel, and work short of production has continued while fuller assessments are prepared. The vessel sits 80 miles north-west of Shetland with 122 people aboard, in waters its operator’s chief executive calls “as harsh as you get anywhere in the world”; a technician described a 30-metre heave passing through last week. Estimates put the field at 300 to 500 million barrels, perhaps 25 years of production. The arguments are unchanged and both are sincere. A production supervisor said approval “would see us out to retirement… We need to see this approved.” The director of the campaign group that won the court case says Rosebank “would be a disastrous decision and a terrible deal for ordinary people”. Polling published this week found Jackdaw’s approval supported by 52% to 15%.

One To Read

Eighty Miles Past Shetland

BBC News · The first reporter to reach the Rosebank vessel finds 122 people, a 30-metre swell and a decision nobody has taken. Both sides of the argument, from the deck rather than the press release.

🌙

Evening Briefing

Saturday 24 October 2026 — 19:55 BST

What It Means For You

If you are in Scotland, northern England or Northern Ireland: amber wind warnings take effect at nine tonight and run through tomorrow. Widespread gusts of 60 to 70mph are forecast, 80mph on exposed coasts. All 30 west coast ferry services are cancelled for the weekend and several Scottish rail lines close from nine.
If you are travelling tomorrow: one operator advises against travel north of Preston and another against the Edinburgh to Aberdeen line. A third storm may follow late Monday into Tuesday on a similar track, though forecasters say it is too early to know whether it will be named.
If you bank or hold bank shares: the industry is lobbying hard against a Budget levy, and unions estimate that raising the surcharge from 3% to 8% would yield £2.25bn a year. Four days out, nothing has been published officially and every figure in circulation is a briefing.

GEO Geopolitical

Hebron Sealed and Razed as Israel Votes on Tuesday

Israeli forces demolished homes in two Hebron districts today and sealed every entrance to the city, which Palestinian officials say has left residents unable to enter or leave. Estimates of those displaced range from 300 families to 2,200 people. Around 70 people were arrested across the West Bank.

Dive deeper

The displacement figures do not agree and should not be averaged: the municipality puts it at about 300 families, some 1,500 people, with 35 hectares destroyed or marked for destruction, while the mayor is quoted by one outlet at more than a thousand displaced and by another at 2,200. He also says the plan is to clear 2,500 people from about a third of a square kilometre. Today’s demolitions were in Ein Deir Baha and Farsh al-Hawa, different districts from the one cleared overnight. One thing we reported this morning cannot yet be resolved: a temporary court order halting demolitions, obtained on Friday by two factory owners, has not been mentioned since by any outlet we can read, so whether it was lifted, narrowed or simply bypassed in a different district is unknown. Soldiers have been marking houses with sprayed black crosses, and residents say a prominent family’s home has been commandeered and hung with flags. The mayor says the operation is “driven by the elections”.

400,000 March in France With Almost 1,000 Arrested

The interior ministry counted 410,000 demonstrators across France, where unions claim about 800,000. Almost a thousand people were arrested nationally. The Paris march was moved at the last minute from Bastille to the city’s southern and eastern rim, and organisers complied rather than defy the ban.

Dive deeper

That compliance is the correction to this morning’s framing: the route was relocated, not fought over. In Paris the official count was 110,000 against the unions’ 250,000, and the prosecutor reports 64 arrests including six minors, with more than 3,000 people stopped and searched. The interior minister said the marches themselves “passed off well” before police met “an extremely elevated level of violence” from several thousand radical activists at the rear, among them about 500 he identified as rioters; clashes ran roughly two hours. Looting happened but on a far smaller scale than last weekend. Two people were badly hurt, one in Clermont-Ferrand and a twenty-year-old in Toulouse who lost fingers. Something new was recorded too: in Cannes and Montpellier the authorities saw far-right activists claiming to protect businesses or seeking confrontation, which the minister said had not been witnessed before. The movement began with schoolchildren demanding teachers and repairs to leaking buildings, and has widened to the cost of living and the banning of protests.

Ukraine Says Starlink Speeds Are Back to Pre-Restriction Levels

President Zelensky said Starlink and Starshield have “resumed operations at their pre-restriction speeds”, and his defence minister said equipment moving faster than 400km/h now works again. Nobody has said the restrictions were formally lifted, and nobody has yet accepted responsibility for imposing them.

Dive deeper

The distinction matters. Both men describe performance recovering, not an order being rescinded, and the recovery reportedly began overnight. While the cap was in place — about 100mph, for roughly ten days — Ukraine says combat missions failed, drone interception was degraded, strikes behind Russian lines were cancelled and ballistic missiles arrived without American warning. Responsibility remains unclaimed and the denials now form a circle. The American president says “it wasn’t me, and I don’t think it was Elon”; the secretary of state says the administration cannot direct a private company; Elon Musk says the systems are “owned and controlled by the US government” and any limits are decided by the military “and ultimately Potus”. Mr Zelensky blames both, noting that no equivalent limit applied to terminals in European Union countries, only to Ukraine: “In other words, this is a planned operation.” Negotiators from Ukraine, Russia and the United States are expected in Abu Dhabi in the first half of November.

Saudi Arabia Intercepts Missiles Aimed at Its Red Sea Oil Hub

The Saudi-led coalition says it shot down two Houthi missiles heading for Taif and Yanbu, and civil defence briefly warned four western regions including Mecca to seek shelter before rescinding the alerts. Yanbu is the Red Sea terminal through which Riyadh bypasses the Strait of Hormuz.

Dive deeper

That is what gives the attempt its significance: with Hormuz effectively closed to much Saudi crude, the east-west pipeline to Yanbu has become the workaround, and the company’s chief executive says its capacity has been raised from two million barrels a day to seven. A missile aimed at Yanbu is aimed at the detour. Everything here is one party’s account, and the claims run both ways. The interception is the coalition’s own, unverified independently. The Houthis separately claim to have struck a naval base and a camp at Aden, and their health ministry claims nine people were killed in Yemen over two days, which it blames on Saudi Arabia; Riyadh did not respond and the figures could not be verified. Iran’s president, meanwhile, spoke unusually plainly about the cost at home: “There are many people in this society who are struggling to put food on the table because of the war.” He called for an end to a state of “neither war nor peace” without saying how.

Serbia and Brazil Both Vote Tomorrow in Tight Contests

Two consequential elections fall on Sunday. In Serbia a leaderless student movement is level with the party that has governed since 2012; in Brazil nearly 159 million voters decide a presidential run-off that polls have tied. Neither result will be known before Sunday night.

Dive deeper

Serbia’s student list grew out of almost two years of protest after a railway station canopy collapsed at Novi Sad, killing sixteen. Its 250 candidates were chosen by university assemblies, none has held office, and it has deliberately refused a leader, so the cardiologist at the top of the list would not automatically become prime minister. Aleksandar Vucic resigned the presidency, being barred from a third term, to stand for prime minister instead. In Brazil the run-off follows a first round on 4 October in which Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of the former president, led Lula da Silva by 47% to 45%. Lula is eighty and seeking a fourth non-consecutive term; most analysts make his opponent a narrow favourite, and since democracy returned in the 1980s no candidate who lost the first round has come back to win. Tens of thousands of his supporters filled Copacabana beach today. Both counts should report on Sunday evening.

UK Domestic

Amber Warnings Bite at Nine as Boelo’s Worst Arrives

Two amber wind warnings take effect at nine tonight, covering Scotland, northern England and parts of Northern Ireland. The strongest gust recorded so far is 76mph at South Uist. All 30 ferry services on Scotland’s west coast are cancelled for the weekend, and Scottish rail lines close from nine.

Dive deeper

One detail is being reported wrongly almost everywhere, including by outlets we rely on: the Scottish amber warning is described as lasting 24 hours, but it runs from nine tonight to nine tomorrow evening across the night the clocks go back, which makes it 25. Widespread gusts of 60 to 70mph are forecast, with 80mph only on exposed coasts. The practical toll so far is disruption rather than danger: no injuries or deaths have been reported. The Foyle Bridge at Londonderry is shut, Liverpool’s river festival is off for a second night, and castles, parks and Halloween events have closed from Edinburgh to Pitlochry. On power, National Grid said more than 124,000 properties had been reconnected by late afternoon with hundreds still off — and the honest picture is that the outage count rose before it fell, from 5,774 this morning to 6,075 in mid-afternoon. The forward watchpoint is a third system: a deep area of low pressure may arrive late Monday into Tuesday on a similar track, though forecasters say it is too early to know whether it will be named.

Banks Lobby Against a Budget Levy With Nothing Yet Official

With the Budget four days away, the banking industry has written to the chancellor warning that higher taxes could push business abroad, citing a ranking that puts London’s total tax rate at 46.2% against 29% in Dublin. Unions say the comparison is cherry-picked. Nothing has been published officially.

Dive deeper

The omission doing the work in that ranking is Paris, which the industry body says it could not model on a like-for-like basis. One newspaper’s own calculation, reviewed by an accountancy firm, puts a Paris bank at between 51.6% and 57.3%, which would be up to eleven points above London. The Trades Union Congress put it more bluntly: “It’s little surprise that some in the finance lobby are cherrypicking jurisdictions to aid their argument… it tells us nothing about the actual taxes paid by Britain’s big banks.” It estimates that raising the bank surcharge from 3% to 8% would yield £2.25bn a year, and the chief executive of one large bank said on Thursday that a rise would be “bearable”. Separately the chancellor is reported to be planning a £20bn lending boost for two state banks, which would require flexing his fiscal rules, with the extra borrowing starting in 2028. The Treasury will not comment on “rumour, speculation or proposals”, and four days out nothing about the Budget has appeared on the government’s own publication service.

Police Hunt Prisoner Who Forced His Way Out of Lewisham Unit

The Metropolitan Police are searching for Anthony Lloyd, 38, who forced his way out of a health unit in Lewisham on Friday afternoon and was last seen heading towards Catford. He was serving twelve months for assaulting three emergency workers. The force says he should not be approached.

Dive deeper

Detective Superintendent Melanie Pressley, who is leading the search, said officers were “conducting various significant inquiries to find Lloyd and return him to custody”, adding: “We are concerned he poses a risk both to himself and the public, and would urge anyone who sees him to call 999 immediately. Do not approach him.” He was jailed last year over an incident in Nottinghamshire and transferred from prison to the Lewisham facility in September; police list links to seven counties. Two things are worth saying about what this is and is not. The three accounts of it differ in their verbs — one says absconded, another escaped — while all three bodies say he forced his way out, which is the formulation used here. And although a prisoner leaving custody from a medical facility invites the question of whether such failures are becoming common, no outlet reports it as part of a pattern, no source prison is identified, and neither the Ministry of Justice nor the prison service appears in any account. On the evidence available tonight this is an incident, not yet a trend.

315 Datacentres Wait for the Grid as Objections Mount

Some 315 hyperscale datacentres are queuing to connect to the national grid, and more than a hundred other planned sites intend to burn gas instead rather than wait. One contested Welsh scheme would draw up to 150MW, more than triple the demand of a city the size of Cardiff, and employ up to 125 people.

Dive deeper

That scheme has drawn more than 1,200 planning objections, and last month the Welsh government ordered Cardiff council to pause the application while it considers taking the decision away from councillors altogether. Five of the largest new and proposed Welsh datacentres would between them consume more electricity than every home in Wales; Scotland has imposed a moratorium on new ones. The scale is visible on the ground in Newport, where a 23-metre building carries 36 air blast coolers and 60 back-up diesel generators. The politics cut across parties rather than along them: a Plaid Cymru member of the Senedd suspects the developer “could be a front for someone else: Google, Microsoft, whoever” and calls the implications for the 2040 net-zero target “massively problematic”, while a Labour councillor backing the scheme says “some of the information being spread is scaremongering”. The communities secretary has separately overturned a council decision blocking a datacentre in east London. This is the other half of the artificial intelligence package the chancellor announced this morning: the compute has to be built somewhere.

Green Councillors’ Deadline Falls Tomorrow With Nothing on Record

The deadline for Green council groups to disown their party’s policy that Zionism is a form of racism falls tomorrow, after which Labour’s national executive decides whether power-sharing deals continue. Nothing has moved today: no group, no councillor and no party figure has said anything new on the record.

Dive deeper

That silence is itself worth recording rather than filling. Nine councils have Greens as power-sharing partners, three of them in direct coalition, and the consequences have already begun landing: Green councillors have left the ruling alliance at Runnymede, and the Labour group leader on Lewes District Council has resigned from his own party to sit as an independent cabinet member. In Stafford, where a Green holds the climate portfolio, Labour has confirmed a process would be triggered to remove him if the policy stands. The Stafford group leader said on Friday that his members were “formulating a response” they would want to put to the membership first, and that remains the most recent thing anyone in the party has said. Four of the Greens’ five members of parliament have criticised the motion, which was passed by members at conference last month and backs a single state in all of historic Palestine. One distinction worth keeping clear: the Scottish Greens are a separate party with their own leadership, and held their own conference today.

One To Read

The Datacentre Next Door

The Guardian · 315 hyperscale datacentres are queuing for the grid and more than a hundred plan to burn gas instead of waiting. A report from the Welsh streets where the compute behind the AI boom actually has to be built.

☀️

Morning Briefing

Saturday 24 October 2026 — 11:33 BST

What It Means For You

If you are following the Budget on Wednesday: the only substantial measure announced on the record so far is £100m for an AI biosecurity laboratory, within a £165m initiative. Everything else being reported — energy support, a bank levy, the size of the headroom — rests on unnamed sources and is not confirmed.
If your area won levelling up money: an analysis of data released under freedom of information law finds 821 of 1,347 funded projects were still incomplete in May, and that in 73 council areas with accepted bids not one project has been finished. The money was allocated between 2018 and 2021.
If you drive: Brent settled on Friday at its highest since April after Iran threatened oil facilities across the Gulf. Pump prices follow crude with a lag of a week or two, and motor fuel was the largest single driver of September’s inflation figure.

GEO Geopolitical

Israel Seals Hebron as 200 Families Are Displaced Overnight

Israeli forces have raided at least 15 towns across the northern West Bank and sealed Hebron, closing seven of its entrances. The city’s municipality says up to 200 families were forced from one neighbourhood overnight. The army says the operation will last several days. Israel votes on Tuesday.

Dive deeper

Friday was the announcement; overnight it became execution. Bulldozers wrecked a three-storey building, hundreds more families were ordered out of a second area, and a correspondent on the ground reports the army using emptied homes as temporary outposts and raising the Israeli flag over them. Israel’s high court has issued a temporary order halting the demolitions after an urgent petition by a human rights lawyer, who said: “What we saw today was an attempt to copy the illegal practices used in Gaza, in the heart of the West Bank.” The defence minister, Israel Katz, was explicit about the model: “The Jenin refugee camp model arrives in Hebron. Every clan neighbourhood in Hebron from which the terrorists emerged today will be evacuated of its residents.” The Israeli rights group B’Tselem says the offensive amounts to “collective punishment and acts that could constitute war crimes”. Two cautions belong here. The 200-family figure is the municipality’s own and one Israeli outlet reports only dozens of evacuations. And a closure of the territory had already been planned for Tuesday’s election, so this is not purely a response to Friday’s attack.

US Spy Chief Says Iranian Plots to Kill Americans Are Advanced

America’s director of national intelligence told the secretary of state, in a dated unclassified memo, that Iran has substantially increased efforts to target American personnel and that lethal plotting has “reached advanced stages”. The memo names no targets, no countries and gives no indication of timing. Four more embassies are cutting staff.

Dive deeper

What makes this reportable is that it is a written, dated document from a named official rather than an anonymous briefing, and that two outlets have obtained it and quote the same sentence. What it does not contain is any evidence a reader can inspect, and it remains one government’s assessment of an adversary at a moment when that government is weighing whether to resume strikes. It also sits awkwardly beside the president, who days earlier accused Iran of “making up fake hits, mines, and everything else” in the Gulf — so the same administration is asserting that Iranian plots are real and advanced while calling Iranian claims of Gulf attacks fabrications. The staff reductions cover Jordan, Lebanon, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, all already on restricted operations; only Saudi Arabia is under an ordered departure. Brent settled on Friday at $116.72, up 3.1% and the highest settlement since 29 April, after Tehran threatened oil facilities, undersea cables and datacentres across the Gulf if a new offensive begins. At least 21 people have been killed in attacks on Saudi airports this month.

France Deploys 70,000 Officers as a Fourth Protest Weekend Begins

Some 70,000 police and soldiers have been mobilised across France, a fifth more than last weekend, and 24 Paris metro stations are closed. Police banned the planned march from Bastille to Nation and the organisers’ legal appeal failed. Courts have overturned bans in Marseille and Limoges.

Dive deeper

The Paris march has been confined to a route between two outer gates, from one until seven, though groups are preparing a two o’clock start instead; bans on unauthorised demonstrations remain in force in Lille, Strasbourg, Mulhouse, Grenoble, Toulouse and Amiens. The reason given for the Bastille ban was the “high density of businesses similar to those targeted” the weekend before, when hundreds of shops were smashed and looted in Paris over two nights and thousands more across the country. Shopkeepers boarded up overnight — opticians, supermarkets, pharmacies. Meanwhile the National Rally is holding its congress in Orléans, with about 5,000 members today and ten thousand expected at a campaign launch tomorrow, against twenty to thirty thousand counter-demonstrators. The general secretary of the CGT union placed the blame squarely: this violence “comes from speeches that convey racism, anti-Semitism, violence, which essentially come from the speeches of the far right”. Parallel protests are planned today in Italy, Spain, Austria, Portugal, Albania and Ireland.

Russia and Ukraine Agree a Local Truce for a Starving City

Both Moscow and Kyiv have confirmed a localised ceasefire in the Russian-occupied city of Oleshky, to evacuate residents and bring in aid. Each says its forces will stop firing at two in the morning on 27 October. The White House, which announced it, gave a later date.

Dive deeper

This began as a White House claim and has become a story because both belligerents have now confirmed the same thing, which is rare. The American first lady said she had “successfully secured” the truce in a city “on the brink of disaster”, and that residents who wish to leave “will receive co-ordinated support and transportation to their preferred destination. I anticipate some will want to go to Russia, and some to Ukraine.” About 6,000 people are thought to remain of the 24,000 who lived there before the invasion, among them 200 children. There has been no gas or electricity since 2023, residents have resorted to eating garden weeds, and a single hospital opens a few days a week for critical amputations. The head of President Zelensky’s party in parliament confirmed that an operation to unblock the settlement would begin shortly. Two limits worth stating: the White House put the start at 29 October where both Moscow and Kyiv said the 27th, and nobody has said how long the ceasefire will hold.

Serbia Votes Tomorrow With a Student List Level Against Vucic

Serbia holds parliamentary elections on Sunday, with a movement grown out of almost two years of anti-corruption protests mounting the most serious challenge to the governing party since it took office in 2012. Its 250 candidates have no political background, and the list has no leader.

Dive deeper

The protests began after 16 people died when a railway station canopy collapsed at Novi Sad, and the candidates were chosen by university faculty assemblies rather than by a party. The list is headed by a cardiologist who would not necessarily become prime minister, since the movement has deliberately refused a hierarchy. A reported 150,000 supporters attended its final rally in Belgrade on Thursday night. Aleksandar Vucic stood down as president in order to run again as prime minister, and has cast the movement as foreign-backed and bent on bringing down the state. The candidate at the top of the student list framed it as restoration rather than rupture: “We offer to our citizens the core values of civilised society, which this previous regime has taken away from our citizens.” Reliable polling is scarce and analysts expect an extremely tight result. The thing to watch is whether a movement with no leader and no machine can convert street numbers into seats — and whether the governing party accepts the count if it cannot.

UK Domestic

Treasury to Fund World-First AI Biosecurity Lab With £100m

The chancellor will put £100m into a new AI Biosecurity Lab, within a £165m biosecurity initiative, alongside up to £200m of model credits and computing power pledged by OpenAI and Anthropic. It is the first substantial Budget announcement to be made on the record. The Budget is on Wednesday.

Dive deeper

The distinction between those two sums matters and is easily garbled: £100m is government cash, while the £200m is in-kind credits from two private companies, so the “up to £300m” figure in circulation is arithmetically right but blurs the two. The laboratory will be an independent non-profit modelled on the AI Security Institute, working with the health and animal health agencies, the defence laboratory and the medicines regulator, with Google DeepMind and Basecamp Research as partners. No location and no timetable have been published. Around it sits a wider package: another £120m for the AI Security Institute, a £60m national cyber shield including a £25m challenge fund, a £70m vulnerability centre, £60m more for the sovereign AI fund, chip design capability in Edinburgh and two centres of excellence in Manchester. John Healey said he was setting out “a distinctively British approach to AI — one that doesn’t leave workers behind and defends our national interest”, and the AI minister, Kanishka Narayan, was blunter about the reasoning: “We cannot afford to rely entirely on technology built overseas.”

Six Warnings as Boelo Arrives, With Amber Wind From Tonight

Six weather warnings now cover the United Kingdom as Storm Boelo arrives, including two amber wind warnings that begin at nine tonight across mainland Scotland, the Western Isles, northern England, northern Wales and north-west Northern Ireland. Gusts could reach 80mph on exposed coasts. The warnings in force this morning are yellow.

Dive deeper

The disruption has started well ahead of the amber period. Fourteen Caledonian MacBrayne sailings have been cancelled, along with Irish Sea crossings between Belfast and Liverpool, Belfast and Cairnryan, and Dublin and Holyhead. England has three flood warnings and fourteen alerts, with flooding expected at Scarborough and in Staffordshire; Scotland has warnings across ten areas including Aberdeenshire, Fife and the Lothians. Rail operators are closing lines rather than slowing them: the Ayr line goes from nine tonight, Oban and Mallaig from about ten, and three Highland routes from the start of service tomorrow. One operator is advising against all but essential travel across the north today and tomorrow, another against travelling north of Preston on Sunday. Supt Andy Barclay of Police Scotland asked drivers to “consider if your journey is really necessary”, noting that stopping distances “can be at least double on wet roads”. Storm Austen has not finished either: 5,774 properties in England and Wales were still without power at a quarter to ten this morning, most of them in the south-west. The clocks go back at two tomorrow morning.

Most Levelling Up Projects Still Unfinished Years After Funding

Of 1,347 projects funded under three levelling up programmes, 821 were not complete as of May this year, according to an analysis of data released under freedom of information laws. In 73 council areas that won money, not a single project has been finished. The money was allocated between 2018 and 2021.

Dive deeper

The three funds had their own deadlines and all have slipped: the high streets money was due to be spent by March 2024 and the town and levelling up funds by March 2026. Those commitments have since been folded into a single regeneration fund with a deadline of March 2028, and the present government’s own replacement, worth £5.8bn, pays out at £2m a year over ten years for each place. Completion has been slowest in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, and low in north-west England and Yorkshire; Blackburn with Darwen has eight projects and none complete, Leeds eight and none closed. Andy Haldane, the former Bank of England chief economist, was scathing about the design rather than the delivery: it was “better than nothing”, but “in some ways the kind of worst of Whitehall. Because all the decisions were centralised. There looked to be degrees of pork barrel politics rolled into which places got it.” Two honest limits: this is one newspaper’s analysis rather than official statistics, and it identified 59 completions since the data was collected.

Tories’ Former Campaign Chief Sentenced Over Election Betting

Anthony Lee, the Conservatives’ former director of campaigning, has been given ten months and two weeks suspended for cheating at gambling, having bet on the date of the 2024 election using information from a private meeting called by the then prime minister. He and his wife stood to win more than £23,000.

Dive deeper

His wife, Laura Lee, received four months and two weeks suspended for a year, and Amy Hind, a former party employee then working as an NHS business support manager, six months suspended. All three admitted the offence at Southwark Crown Court on Thursday, having been charged by the Gambling Commission. Sentencing them, Judge Tony Baumgartner said their conduct “risked undermining” public confidence in the Conservative Party “as an institution”, as well as trust in the democratic process and the integrity of the gambling system. The case is not over: other defendants are due to be tried next year and in 2028, and the former Conservative member of parliament Craig Williams, who was the then prime minister’s closest parliamentary aide when the election date was chosen, pleaded guilty in June and will be sentenced later. The sums involved are small against the damage; what the prosecutions establish is that the date of a general election was treated by people inside the governing party as a tradeable piece of information.

Green Councillors Face a Labour Deadline Over Zionism Policy

Green council groups have until Sunday to disown their party’s policy that Zionism is a form of racism, after which Labour’s national executive will decide whether local power-sharing arrangements continue. Nine authorities are exposed, three of them direct coalitions. Two alliances have already broken.

Dive deeper

The motion, passed by members at the Green conference in Brighton last month, describes Zionism as an ideology supporting an “ethnonationalist Jewish state” that has led to the “disenfranchisement and destruction” of Palestinians, and backs “a single democratic Palestinian state in all of historic Palestine” — which includes present-day Israel. Four of the Greens’ five members of parliament have criticised it, and the party leader, who did not vote, has called it “imperfect” and wants it amended. The consequences are already landing locally: Green councillors have left the ruling alliance at Runnymede, and the Labour group leader on Lewes District Council has resigned from his own party to sit as an independent cabinet member. In Stafford, where a Green cabinet member holds the climate portfolio, Labour has confirmed a process would be triggered to remove him if the group refuses. The Stafford Green leader said they were “formulating a response” they would like to put to members first. A Green spokesperson called it “disappointing and wrong” to conflate criticism of Israel with antisemitism.

One To Read

The Slick You Can See From Orbit

BBC News · Satellite imagery matched to a damaged Panama-flagged tanker traces an oil slick spreading more than 35km off the United Arab Emirates. Amid competing claims about who is hitting ships in the Gulf, this is the part that can be verified.

Saved Stories

Morning Briefing

What It Means For You

GEO Geopolitical

America Approves 500 Patriots That May Take Years to Arrive

Poland’s President Forces His Way Into the Constitutional Court

Half the Record Crypto Theft Frozen as Investigators Close In

Yerevan Nature Deal Lands With One Target of 24 on Course

Democrats Lead by Eight Points With Three Days to the Midterms

UK Domestic

Settlement Decision Due Next Week After Cabinet Objections

Savers and Landlords Face Four Points More From April 2027

Sorrow and Regret Offered, but Reparations Refused

Bereaved Families Win Full Asbestos Compensation From Today

Up to Ten Dry Days After the Wettest Week in Two Years

Billboards in St John’s

Evening Briefing

What It Means For You

GEO Geopolitical

Limpet Mines Disable Tanker in First Such Hormuz Attack of War

Intel Suffers Worst Day Since 1974 as AI Sell-Off Deepens

Hundreds Evacuated From Occupied Oleshky Under Kherson Ceasefire

G20 Photo Scrapped as Europeans Refuse to Stand With Lavrov

Novaya Gazeta to Close, Accusing Russian State of Killing It

UK UK Domestic Politics

First Ministers Tell Burnham Local Devolution Is Theirs to Decide

Streeting Denies Kicking Defence Spending Can Down the Road

Budget Takes £741m From Heat Pump Scheme to Help Fund Defence

Yorkshire Water Chief Quits a Day After One-Star Rating

Number 10 North Advertises 50 Jobs in Manchester Hiring Drive

One To Read

Morning Briefing

What It Means For You

GEO Geopolitical

Tehran Holds Vance Letter as US Floats Istanbul or Doha Talks

Binance Hit by $6.3bn Hack Blamed on North Korea

Xi’s Purges Leave Record Empty Seats at China Plenum

Serbia’s Student Victors Demand Police and Intelligence Chiefs Go

Alphabet Loses $500bn as AI Weighs on Search Advertising

DOM UK Domestic Politics

DUP Blocks O’Neill From Burnham’s Economic Council

IFS Warns of £28bn Gap and ‘Brutal’ Spending Review

Mahmood Angers Ministers Over Asylum Homelessness Impact

MPs Say Government’s Obesity ‘Moonshot’ Is Doomed to Fail

Nine Council Mergers Withdrawn as Reorganisation Stalls

One To Read

Evening Briefing

What It Means For You

GEO Geopolitical

Tehran Weighs Vance Letter as Trump Tells Gulf to Prepare

Final Count Leaves Netanyahu Short as Arab Lists Become Kingmakers

Leaked Audio Points to Controllers as Spain Crash Toll Reaches 69

Kherson Enjoys Rare Quiet as Six-Day Truce Holds

Shell Lifts FTSE 100 as Haleon Suffers Record Fall

DOM UK Domestic Politics

Think Tanks Warn of ‘Painful’ Years as Living Standards Stall

Burnham Cannot Promise Welfare Cut Before Election

Poundland on the Brink as Owners Reject Rescue Bid

Hundreds of GP Surgeries Lose Online Booking After Firm Collapses

Farage and Lib Dem MP Clash Over Alleged Commons Shove

One To Read

Morning Briefing

What It Means For You

GEO Geopolitical

Spain’s Worst Rail Crash in 13 Years Kills at Least 68

Vance Reaches Out to Tehran as Pentagon Readies Post-Election Strikes

Israel Heads for Deadlock as Netanyahu Bloc Stalls at 53

Federal Reserve Holds Rates, but Two Members Vote to Raise

Putin Hails Musk as Kremlin Rejects Zelensky’s Ceasefire Offer

UK UK Domestic Politics

Healey’s First Budget Taxes Banks to Fund £100 Energy Payment

OBR Paints ‘Pretty Grim’ Picture as Growth Forecast Is Cut

Departments Told to Find Further 1% Cuts to Fund Defence

Burnham Rules Out a General Election Within 12 Months

Tommy Robinson Convicted of Harassing Two Daily Mail Journalists

Healey Buys Himself Some Time

Morning Briefing

What It Means For You

GEO Geopolitical

Likud Leads the Count, but Neither Bloc Reaches 61 Seats