The Daily Brief

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Weekly Roundup

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Week of 8 March–14 March 2026

The Week In Numbers

Brent crude surged from $88 to $103 per barrel — a 17 per cent rise in four trading days as the Hormuz blockade tightened and Iran expanded attacks to the UAE’s Fujairah oil hub
The IEA released a record 400 million barrels of emergency oil stocks — three times the previous record — yet prices continued to climb, signalling the market judges the intervention insufficient
UK GDP flatlined for a sixth consecutive month as the OBR halved its 2026 growth forecast to 1.1 per cent; unemployment reached 5.2 per cent, the highest in five years

↑ What Moved Forward

Ukraine–US Peace Framework Nears Completion

Geopolitical

Presidents Trump and Zelenskyy confirmed agreement on 90–95 per cent of a ceasefire framework following marathon talks in Jeddah — the most concrete diplomatic advance since the 2022 Istanbul negotiations. Ukraine simultaneously recaptured 244 square kilometres while Russian territorial gains fell to a 20-month low, strengthening Kyiv’s negotiating hand.

Hereditary Peers Bill Clears Final Hurdle

Domestic

Parliament’s biggest constitutional reform in a generation passed its final stage this week. Up to 92 hereditary peers will leave the House of Lords after 700 years, completing a process first attempted a quarter of a century ago. Royal assent is expected imminently.

GCC States Unite at UN Security Council

Geopolitical

All six Gulf Cooperation Council states submitted a joint resolution demanding Iran cease attacks on neighbouring countries — a rare display of unity from monarchies that seldom act in concert on military matters. Qatar and Oman retain diplomatic channels with Tehran, positioning themselves as potential mediators.

Employment Rights Act Reforms Confirmed for April

Domestic

The most significant expansion of workers’ rights in a generation takes effect on 6 April: statutory sick pay from day one, zero-hours contract protections, and day-one paternity leave for 1.3 million low-paid workers previously excluded.

• What Stalled

Bank of England Rate Cuts Effectively Shelved

Markets

Three weeks ago a March cut was near-certain. The oil shock has inverted the calculus entirely: markets now price just a 28 per cent chance of a cut on Thursday. With inflation at 3.0 per cent and oil above $100, the easing cycle may not resume until 2027 — trapping homeowners in higher repayments even as the economy stagnates.

Russia Blocks Ukraine Ceasefire Despite Framework

Geopolitical

Putin told the US envoy there were “issues to resolve” and launched 559 drones and missiles at Kyiv hours later. Moscow’s calculus is transparent: the Iran war boosts Russian oil revenues above budget assumptions while consuming American diplomatic bandwidth. The longer the Gulf conflict persists, the further Ukraine recedes from Western attention.

Labour Immigration Reforms Delayed by Rebellion

Domestic

More than 100 Labour MPs — a quarter of the parliamentary party — revolted against sweeping immigration changes, forcing the Government to delay new settlement rules from April to autumn. The 20-year wait for indefinite leave to remain remains the most contentious element. It is the largest internal challenge of Starmer’s premiership.

→ What To Watch Next Week

Bank of England Rate Decision — Thursday 19 March

Markets

The MPC meets with the worst set of cross-currents in years: six months of zero growth arguing for stimulus, yet an oil-driven inflation surge demanding restraint. The vote split was 5–4 in February. A hold is expected, but the accompanying statement will be parsed for any signal on the easing timeline.

Trump’s Coalition Flotilla — Who Signs Up?

Geopolitical

The President has named Britain, France, Japan, South Korea and China as desired participants in a multinational fleet to force Hormuz open. No country has publicly committed. Starmer faces acute pressure: joining risks deeper entanglement; refusing risks the transatlantic relationship at a moment of economic vulnerability.

Al Quds Day Protests — Sunday 15 March

Domestic

The Home Secretary’s ban on the Al Quds march — the first march prohibition since 2012 — faces a legal challenge. Organisers plan a static protest regardless. Counter-demonstrations have been announced. The Metropolitan Police warns of a “robust response” to any march attempt, with community tensions at their highest since the Iran conflict began.

Petrol Prices Set to Breach 150p

Domestic

With Brent above $103 and the Hormuz blockade entering its third week, forecourt prices are on track to exceed 145p per litre nationally. The RAC estimates an average fill will cost £80. The Chancellor confirmed that the 15-year fuel duty freeze ends in September, adding further pressure later in the year.

One To Read This Weekend

The Global Price Tag of War in the Middle East

World Economic Forum · A comprehensive accounting of how the conflict’s cascading economic fallout — from oil and shipping to food systems and supply chains — is reshaping the global economy in ways that may persist long after the fighting stops.

☽

Evening Briefing

Saturday 14 March 2026 — 17:56 GMT

What It Means For You

Brent crude surges past $103 as Trump calls for a multinational warship coalition — petrol prices likely to breach 145p/litre next week; an average fill now costs £80
FTSE 100 slides to 10,226, its lowest close since early February — pension and ISA holders face a third consecutive week of losses driven by the energy crisis
Bank of England rate decision on Thursday now expected to be a hold at 3.75% — mortgage holders should budget for unchanged repayments into the summer as inflation pressures build

Geopolitical

Trump Demands Multinational Warship Fleet to Reopen Hormuz

↻ This morning: US strikes Kharg military targets → This evening: Trump calls for coalition to force strait open

President Trump announced that “many countries” will send warships to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, naming China, France, Japan, South Korea and Britain as desired participants. He vowed the US would “bomb the hell out of the shoreline” and continue destroying Iranian vessels. The Pentagon confirmed the USS Tripoli and its Marine expeditionary unit are deploying to the Gulf.

Dive deeper

The call for a multinational flotilla marks a shift from unilateral action to coalition-building, though no country has publicly confirmed participation. Britain’s inclusion on Trump’s list creates a political dilemma for Starmer, who has so far limited UK involvement to defensive RAF sorties. The Strait remains effectively closed to commercial traffic, with tanker transits down 70 per cent. Iran has mined approaches and deployed fast-attack craft. Analysts at the IISS warn that forced reopening risks escalation to a full naval war in confined waters.

Iran Strikes UAE as IRGC Declares US Interests ‘Legitimate Targets’

↻ This morning: IRGC fires at Israel → This evening: Missiles hit UAE; Fujairah oil hub ablaze

UAE air defences intercepted nine ballistic missiles and 33 drones launched from Iran on Saturday. A fire broke out at the Fujairah oil terminal, one of the world’s largest bunkering hubs. The IRGC warned that all US interests in the UAE — including ports, docks and military installations — are now legitimate targets and urged civilians to evacuate those areas.

Dive deeper

The escalation to direct attacks on UAE energy infrastructure represents a dangerous widening of the conflict. Fujairah handles roughly 6 million barrels of oil storage and is a critical bunkering point for ships that cannot transit Hormuz. Iran has now struck targets in Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE, effectively turning the entire Gulf into a combat zone. The IRGC’s explicit warning to civilians suggests further strikes are imminent. Dubai reported falling debris striking a building façade, though no casualties were confirmed.

Brent Crude Breaks $103 as Hormuz Blockade Enters Third Week

Oil prices surged past $103 per barrel — the highest since July 2022 — as the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz entered its third week. Goldman Sachs warned Brent could reach $135 if the strait remains shut for four months. The IEA’s record 400-million-barrel reserve release has failed to arrest the rise, with traders judging the volumes insufficient against an 8-million-barrel daily deficit.

Dive deeper

The breach of $103 reflects market scepticism that diplomatic or military action can reopen Hormuz quickly. Iran has mined the approaches and deployed at least 16 minelaying vessels, most of which the US Navy has since destroyed. Strategic reserves across IEA members are being drawn down at roughly 4 million barrels per day; at this rate, reserves could fall below the 90-day minimum by late summer. California petrol prices have already exceeded $5 per gallon, and European forecourt prices are following.

Ukraine Strikes Russian Electronics Plant Making Missile Components

Ukrainian forces used Storm Shadow missiles to destroy a Russian plant producing microchips and high-end electronics for cruise missiles. Separately, Ukraine claimed a “successful” strike on two Russian ships ferrying weapons through the Kerch Strait. Russian casualties now exceed 1.28 million since February 2022, with 860 killed or wounded in the past 24 hours.

Dive deeper

The strike on the electronics facility targets a critical bottleneck in Russia’s precision-weapons supply chain. Moscow has struggled to source Western-made components since sanctions tightened, and domestic production capacity remains limited. The Kerch Strait attack disrupts a key logistics route for supplying Russian forces in Crimea. Peace talks remain stalled; Zelenskyy noted that White House officials cannot travel due to the Iran campaign, while Russia shows no urgency to negotiate as oil revenues surge.

Iran Death Toll Reaches 1,444 on Day 15 of US-Israel Campaign

Iran’s Health Ministry reported 1,444 killed and 18,551 injured since the conflict began on 28 February. Israeli attacks have killed at least 773 people in Lebanon since 2 March. Australia ordered all non-essential officials to leave the UAE and Israel and urged citizens to evacuate the wider Middle East region.

Dive deeper

The mounting casualty figures have intensified international calls for a ceasefire, though the UN Security Council remains deadlocked by Russian and Chinese vetoes. The WHO has warned that “black rain” from burning oil facilities over Tehran poses acute respiratory risks to 14 million residents. Iran’s ballistic missile capacity has been degraded by an estimated 90 per cent, yet the IRGC continues launching salvos from underground facilities that have proved difficult to neutralise. The humanitarian situation is deteriorating rapidly as medical supplies run short.

UK Domestic Politics

Starmer Faces Pressure to Join Hormuz Warship Coalition

Trump’s call for Britain to send warships to the Strait of Hormuz places fresh pressure on Keir Starmer, who has confined UK involvement to defensive RAF sorties and base access. Defence sources said the Royal Navy has a frigate and destroyer in the region but no decision has been taken on committing to a coalition. Shadow defence secretary James Cartlidge urged the Government to “step up”.

Dive deeper

The request exposes the limits of Starmer’s carefully calibrated position. Committing warships risks drawing Britain deeper into the conflict; refusing risks damaging the transatlantic relationship at a moment of acute economic vulnerability. The Royal Navy’s capacity is also in question, with only 15 of 19 frigates and destroyers currently operational. Labour backbenchers who revolted over immigration reform are unlikely to welcome further military entanglement, adding to the Prime Minister’s domestic difficulties ahead of the May local elections.

Immigration Rebels Force Government to Review Settlement Timetable

The Government confirmed that new “earned settlement” rules — requiring up to 20 years for refugees to gain indefinite leave to remain — will be delayed from April to autumn 2026 following pressure from more than 100 Labour MPs. The Home Affairs Committee published its report criticising the reforms as “disproportionate”. Immigration minister Seema Malhotra said transitional arrangements are “under review”.

Dive deeper

The delay represents a significant concession to the largest backbench rebellion of Starmer’s premiership. The original timetable would have imposed the 20-year settlement threshold on asylum applications submitted from 2 March. Critics argue the policy effectively abolishes permanent residency for lower-paid migrants. The Government is caught between Reform UK’s populist pressure on immigration and its own parliamentary party’s resistance. A Westminster Hall debate on the reforms is expected in the coming weeks.

Al Quds March Ban Faces Legal Challenge Ahead of Tomorrow’s Protest

The Islamic Human Rights Commission confirmed it will legally challenge the Home Secretary’s ban on the Al Quds Day march — the first march prohibition since 2012. The ban covers central London until 11 April. Organisers said a static protest will proceed on Sunday regardless. The Metropolitan Police warned that any march would be met with “a robust response”.

Dive deeper

The ban tests the boundary between public order and the right to protest at a moment of heightened tension. Static assemblies cannot legally be prohibited, creating a grey area that organisers intend to exploit. MI5 has foiled more than 20 Iranian state-backed plots against UK targets in the past year, lending weight to the security justification. Counter-protests from pro-Israel and far-right groups have been announced, raising the prospect of confrontation regardless of the march ban.

Reform UK Set to Win Most Council Seats Nationally in May Elections

Bookmakers now price Reform UK at 3/10 to win the most council seats in the 7 May local elections, an implied probability above 75 per cent. Farage has committed £5 million to the campaign. Reform is projected to take control of county councils in Essex, Norfolk and Suffolk. Labour, which won 35 per cent when these seats were last fought, now polls around 20 per cent.

Dive deeper

The projections suggest a generational realignment in English local government. Labour faces losses concentrated in northern metropolitan boroughs, while the Conservatives risk losing their rural heartlands to Reform. The Gorton and Denton by-election in February — where Labour finished third — provided an early signal. With 4,850 seats contested across 136 authorities, the elections represent the most comprehensive test of public opinion since the 2024 general election. Labour’s net approval at minus 32 per cent offers little comfort.

Bank of England Rate Decision Looms as Oil Shock Stalls Easing Cycle

Markets now price only a 28 per cent chance of a rate cut when the MPC meets on Thursday, down from near-certainty before the Iran conflict. The February vote split 5–4 for holding at 3.75 per cent. Economists warn that oil above $100 could add a full percentage point to inflation, potentially delaying cuts into 2027 and adding £500 to the typical household energy bill.

Dive deeper

The MPC faces its most acute dilemma in years. GDP has not expanded since June, unemployment has risen to 5.2 per cent — the highest in five years — yet headline CPI at 3.0 per cent sits a full point above target. The Resolution Foundation estimates that sustained oil prices above $100 will feed through to energy bills within two quarters. Gilt yields at 4.55 per cent reflect market anxiety about the fiscal outlook. The likely hold on Thursday will disappoint homeowners hoping for mortgage relief.

One To Read

How Much Is the War in Iran Costing You?

TIME · A detailed accounting of how the Hormuz closure is feeding through to petrol, electricity, food and shipping costs — and what comes next for household budgets.

☼

Morning Briefing

Saturday 14 March 2026 — 07:57 GMT

What It Means For You

Brent crude holds above $101 for a fourth day; petrol averaging 141p/litre but forecourt premiums in the South East reaching 155p — expect further rises as the Hormuz blockade enters its third week
Bank of England rate decision on Thursday now a near-certain hold at 3.75% — tracker mortgage holders face at least another quarter of unchanged repayments as the oil shock clouds the inflation outlook
IEA releases a record 400 million barrels of emergency oil stocks — designed to cap pump prices but analysts warn the buffer may last only weeks if Hormuz shipping does not resume

Geopolitical

US Bombs Kharg Island Military Targets; Warns Oil Facilities Next

American forces struck every military installation on Iran’s Kharg Island, through which 90 per cent of Tehran’s crude exports pass. President Trump said oil infrastructure was deliberately spared but warned it “may be next” if Iran continues to block the Strait of Hormuz. The Pentagon confirmed the strikes degraded air defences and missile batteries.

Dive deeper

Kharg Island is the linchpin of Iran’s export economy, handling roughly 1.5 million barrels per day before the war. The distinction between military and energy infrastructure on the island is narrow; storage tanks sit adjacent to radar installations. Striking oil facilities would send Brent crude well beyond current levels and risk a direct confrontation with China, which has continued importing Iranian oil via the strait. Defence Secretary Hegseth described the operation as “the most precise campaign in military history”, though independent verification remains impossible.

Iran Fires Missiles at Tel Aviv; Smoke Rises Over Israel’s Commercial Hub

The IRGC launched a fresh salvo of ballistic missiles and drones at Israel in coordination with Hezbollah. Smoke was visible over two locations around Tel Aviv after blasts were heard. Israel’s military said most projectiles were intercepted but acknowledged “limited impacts” in the greater Tel Aviv area.

Dive deeper

The attack represents Iran’s most direct strike on Israel’s commercial heartland since the war began. Previous salvos targeted military airfields and the Negev; hitting Tel Aviv raises the psychological stakes significantly. Iran’s ability to sustain these attacks despite the degradation of 90 per cent of its air defences underscores the resilience of its underground missile programme. Israel has now carried out 7,600 strikes inside Iran and 1,100 in Lebanon since 28 February.

IEA Releases Record 400m Barrels as Oil Crisis Enters Third Week

The International Energy Agency agreed to release 400 million barrels of emergency oil stocks — the largest such action in its history — as global supply falls by an estimated 8 million barrels per day. Brent crude held above $101. Canada contributed 23.6 million barrels as part of the coordinated effort.

Dive deeper

The IEA described the disruption as “the largest in the history of the global oil market”, with exports through the Strait of Hormuz at less than 10 per cent of pre-conflict levels. The 400-million-barrel release represents roughly 50 days’ cover at current deficit rates, buying time but not solving the underlying problem. Goldman Sachs warned that without a reopening of the strait, strategic reserves across IEA members could fall below 90 days’ cover by late summer — a level not seen since the 1970s oil crisis.

Hegseth Claims Iran’s Supreme Leader ‘Wounded and Disfigured’

US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth said he believes Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran’s new supreme leader, is “wounded and likely disfigured”. The State Department offered a $10 million reward for information on Khamenei and other senior officials. Khamenei’s first public statement vowed continued attacks until US bases in the region are closed.

Dive deeper

Mojtaba Khamenei assumed supreme authority after his father Ali Khamenei was killed in the opening strikes on 28 February. Western intelligence agencies remain uncertain whether Mojtaba commands genuine authority over the IRGC or whether operational control has devolved to field commanders. The $10 million bounty is unprecedented for a sitting head of state and signals Washington’s intent to pursue regime decapitation. Iran’s Health Ministry reports 1,444 killed and 18,551 injured since the conflict began.

Ukraine Recovers 244 sq km as Russian Territorial Gains Hit 20-Month Low

Ukrainian forces have recaptured 244 square kilometres in southern Ukraine since January, while Russian territorial gains in February fell to a 20-month low. Russia lost 30 square miles in the past week. Separately, Presidents Trump and Zelenskyy confirmed agreement on 90–95 per cent of a peace framework.

Dive deeper

The battlefield shift reflects both improved Ukrainian drone capabilities and the diversion of Russian military resources. Moscow is providing technical assistance to Iran while its own offensive momentum has stalled. Russian casualties now exceed 1.27 million since February 2022, with 860 killed or wounded in the past 24 hours alone. The near-complete peace framework is the most concrete diplomatic advance since Istanbul, though European leaders remain wary of any deal that rewards territorial conquest. Eleven countries have requested Ukraine’s counter-drone systems.

UK Domestic Politics

Bank of England Rate Hold Expected as Oil Shock Clouds Outlook

Markets now price only a 28 per cent chance of a rate cut when the MPC meets on Thursday, down from 90 per cent before the Iran conflict. The February vote was finely balanced at 5–4. Economists warn that sustained oil prices above $100 could add a full percentage point to inflation, delaying the easing cycle into 2027.

Dive deeper

The swing in expectations is remarkable: barely three weeks ago, a March cut was considered near-certain. The MPC faces an acute dilemma. Growth has flatlined — GDP has not expanded since June — yet headline inflation at 3.0 per cent remains a full point above target, with energy-driven pressures building. The Resolution Foundation estimates sustained high oil prices could add £500 to the typical household energy bill. Markets now expect at most a single cut in 2026, down from two before the war.

More Than 100 Labour MPs Revolt Over Immigration Reforms

A quarter of the parliamentary Labour party has signed a letter urging Starmer to rethink sweeping immigration changes, including a 20-year wait for indefinite leave to remain and 30-month reassessments for refugees. Home Secretary Mahmood announced a £40,000 voluntary departure scheme for rejected asylum seekers. The Government insists “there is absolutely no change whatsoever”.

Dive deeper

The rebellion is the largest internal challenge Starmer has faced as Prime Minister, surpassing even the Epstein-related crisis in February. Thirty-five MPs joined Britain’s largest trade union in opposing the plans. The reforms are designed to neutralise Reform UK’s appeal ahead of May’s local elections, but risk alienating Labour’s urban base. A Westminster Hall debate on the reforms is scheduled for Tuesday. The scale of opposition may force concessions on the 20-year residency threshold, which critics describe as “effectively abolishing settlement for the low-paid”.

Labour Braces for Local Election Losses as Reform Surges

With 4,850 council seats contested on 7 May, Labour faces projected heavy losses concentrated in northern metropolitan boroughs. The party polled 35 per cent when these seats were last fought in 2022; it now polls around 20 per cent. Reform UK is projected to take control of county councils in Essex, Norfolk and Suffolk.

Dive deeper

London’s 1,800 seats represent Labour’s most vulnerable flank. The Gorton and Denton by-election in February — where the Greens won a seat Labour held for a century — provided a foretaste of the challenge. Labour’s net approval rating stands at minus 32 per cent, weighed down by the Mandelson–Epstein scandal, stalling growth and the immigration revolt. The Conservatives face parallel losses to Reform in the shires, suggesting a fundamental realignment of English local politics rather than a simple government-of-the-day swing.

Defence Spending to Rise to 2.5% of GDP by 2027 as OBR Backs Increase

The OBR designated the defence spending increase as a fiscal necessity in its Spring Forecast, backing a path to 2.5 per cent of GDP by 2027 and 3.5 per cent by 2035. Defence expenditure will rise from £62.2 billion this year to £73.5 billion by 2028–29. NATO allies agreed a new 3.5 per cent minimum target at the 2025 summit.

Dive deeper

The OBR’s explicit endorsement is unusual and reflects the deteriorating security environment. The Iran conflict has given political cover for spending that would otherwise face fierce resistance from the Treasury. Reeves described the uplift as “the biggest since the Cold War”, but the £11.3 billion additional commitment by 2028–29 must be funded alongside a fiscal framework already under strain from stalling growth and rising gilt yields. The 5 per cent combined NATO target — including security and intelligence spending — would require further increases well into the 2030s.

NHS Waiting List Falls for Third Month to 7.25 Million

The NHS waiting list in England dropped to 7.25 million treatments in January, the lowest level since February 2023. Winter waiting times were the shortest in four years. However, only 38 per cent of trusts are on track to meet the Government’s March interim target of 65 per cent of patients treated within 18 weeks.

Dive deeper

The three consecutive monthly falls represent genuine progress, driven partly by the Further Faster 20 programme that deployed specialist teams to the 20 trusts with the highest economic inactivity. But the headline number masks significant regional variation: London and the South East are broadly on track, while trusts in the North East and Midlands lag behind. The 18-week target looks likely to be narrowly missed at 63.4 per cent nationally. Rising energy costs threaten to squeeze NHS budgets further, with hospital utility bills already 40 per cent above 2019 levels.

One To Read

The Energy Crisis Could Outlast the Iran War

Fortune · Why the IEA warns that the biggest oil supply disruption in history may leave permanent scars on global energy markets — even after the fighting stops.

☽

Evening Briefing

Friday 13 March 2026 — 18:30 GMT

What It Means For You

Sterling drops below $1.33 after UK GDP flatlines — holiday money now buys 3% less than a month ago; imported goods face further price rises as the economy stalls
Brent crude holds above $101 for a third session; petrol averaging 166p/litre — filling a 55-litre tank now costs roughly £91, up £10 from a fortnight ago
Hereditary peers to leave the House of Lords after 700 years — Parliament’s biggest constitutional reform in a generation clears its final hurdle this week

Geopolitical

Israel Launches ‘Broad Wave’ of Tehran Strikes; Explosion Rocks State Rally

↻ This morning: 200+ targets hit overnight → This evening: ‘broad wave’ strikes continue; explosion at Al Quds Day rally near senior officials

Israel’s military announced a fresh “broad wave” of strikes across Tehran on Friday after hitting more than 200 targets in western and central Iran over the previous day, including ballistic missile launchers and weapons-production sites. An explosion struck near a state-organised Al Quds Day rally attended by President Pezeshkian and security chief Larijani, killing at least one person. Israel has now carried out 7,600 strikes in Iran since 28 February.

Dive deeper

The targeting of central Tehran during a major public event represents a significant escalation in the psychological dimension of the campaign. Iran’s Health Ministry reports 1,444 people killed and 18,551 injured since the war began. The IDF claims 90 per cent of Iran’s air defences have been degraded, yet Tehran’s retaliatory capacity from hardened underground missile stores remains significant. Defence Secretary Hegseth said he believes new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei is “wounded” and possibly “disfigured”, though this remains unverified.

All Six KC-135 Crew Confirmed Dead; US Death Toll Reaches 13

↻ This morning: four crew reported killed → This evening: all six confirmed dead; US toll now 13

CENTCOM confirmed all six crew members aboard the KC-135 Stratotanker that crashed in western Iraq on Thursday have been killed, bringing the total American death toll to 13 since Operation Epic Fury began. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed responsibility, though the Pentagon maintains the loss was not caused by hostile fire and may have involved a mid-air collision with a second tanker.

Dive deeper

The discrepancy between the militia’s claim and the Pentagon’s account remains unresolved. The second KC-135 made an emergency landing at Ben Gurion Airport in Israel. An investigation is underway but the loss underscores the operational strain of a campaign spanning multiple theatres. The KC-135 fleet is the backbone of US aerial refuelling; sustained attrition would constrain sortie rates. More than 250 US organisations have signed a letter calling on Congress to halt funding for the war, arguing the $11.3 billion spent in the first six days diverts funds from domestic needs.

Israel Destroys Litani Bridge; Warns Lebanon Faces Gaza-Scale Destruction

↻ This morning: Israeli strikes continue in Lebanon → This evening: Litani bridge destroyed; leaflets warn of Gaza-level devastation

Israel struck the Zrarieh Bridge spanning the Litani River in southern Lebanon and dropped leaflets over Beirut warning the country faces the same scale of destruction visited upon Gaza. Israeli attacks killed more than 25 people in Beirut and southern Lebanon on Friday, striking areas of the capital not hit in this conflict or the 2024 war. The Lebanese death toll stands at 773, with 800,000 displaced.

Dive deeper

The destruction of the Litani crossing is designed to sever Hezbollah’s supply lines between northern and southern Lebanon. Israel says it has carried out 1,100 strikes in Lebanon since 28 February. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun declared Hezbollah’s military activities outlawed and demanded the group confine itself to the political sphere — a remarkable shift for a country where Hezbollah has operated as a state within a state for decades. Hezbollah has vowed an “existential” fight, but its leadership has been severely degraded by targeted killings.

GCC Submits UN Resolution Demanding Iran Halt Gulf Attacks

All six Gulf Cooperation Council states submitted a draft UN Security Council resolution demanding Iran “immediately and unconditionally” cease all missile and drone attacks on neighbouring countries. Bahrain tabled the resolution on behalf of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and the UAE. Separately, Oman’s Sultan Haitham spoke with President Pezeshkian, calling for “the language of dialogue and diplomacy” to end the conflict.

Dive deeper

The unified GCC front at the Security Council is significant: these states rarely act in concert on military matters. Iran has struck civilian infrastructure across all six member states, damaging freshwater resources, airports, hotels and shopping centres. Qatar and Oman retain diplomatic channels with Tehran and are positioned as potential mediators. Russia and China, both permanent Security Council members, have yet to indicate whether they will veto the resolution. A 2,200-strong US Marine expeditionary unit is deploying from Okinawa to support operations and potential evacuation missions in the Gulf.

Putin Stalls on Ukraine Ceasefire; Russia Fires 559 Drones and Missiles

↻ This morning: 95% peace framework agreed → This evening: Putin rejects ceasefire; massive overnight strike on Kyiv

Vladimir Putin told US envoy Keith Kellogg there were “issues to resolve” before Russia could accept a ceasefire, effectively rejecting the Trump–Zelenskyy peace framework. Hours later, Russia launched 519 drones and 40 missiles at Ukraine, killing civilians and damaging energy infrastructure in Kyiv. Secretary Rubio said “the ball is now in Russia’s court”.

Dive deeper

The massive strike — one of the deadliest in months — targeted residential buildings and energy infrastructure, leaving parts of Kyiv without electricity or heating. More than ten residential buildings were damaged and rescue teams searched rubble for survivors. Russia’s foot-dragging is strategically rational: the Iran war boosts Moscow’s oil revenues while consuming American diplomatic bandwidth. The Urals blend has climbed above $70 per barrel, well above the $59 assumed in Russia’s 2026 budget. European leaders warned that prolonged US involvement in the Gulf serves Moscow’s strategic interests.

UK Domestic Politics

UK Economy Flatlines in January; Sterling Falls Below $1.33

↻ This morning: GDP data awaited → This evening: ONS confirms 0% growth; economy stalled since June

The Office for National Statistics confirmed UK GDP showed zero growth in January 2026, missing the 0.2 per cent consensus forecast. The dominant services sector was flat; production fell 0.1 per cent. British GDP has not grown since June, stalling at the same level for six consecutive months. Sterling fell 0.6 per cent to $1.3266 as ING warned the outlook is “becoming more challenging” with elevated energy prices.

Dive deeper

The data is particularly concerning because it predates the Iran conflict, which has since pushed Brent crude above $100 and introduced a major new headwind. Economists at Capital Economics now model UK growth of just 0.6 per cent for 2026 if oil stays elevated — well below the OBR’s already-downgraded 1.1 per cent forecast. Bank of England rate cut expectations have been scaled back further: markets now price just a 25 per cent chance of a cut at next Thursday’s meeting. The combination of stalling growth and rising energy costs raises the spectre of stagflation.

Hereditary Peers Bill Clears Final Hurdle — 92 Lords to Leave After 700 Years

The House of Lords (Hereditary Peers) Bill passed its final parliamentary stage this week, completing a constitutional reform first attempted a quarter of a century ago. Up to 92 hereditary peers who held their seats by virtue of birth will leave the chamber at the end of this parliamentary session in May. Royal assent from King Charles III is expected imminently.

Dive deeper

The bill removes the exemption inserted by the Blair government in 1999 that allowed 92 hereditary peers to remain while broader Lords reform was completed. That broader reform never came, leaving the hereditary principle embedded in Parliament for another 27 years. The departing peers include dukes, earls and viscounts whose families have sat in the Lords since the medieval period. The Electoral Reform Society called it “an important victory for democracy”, though critics note the chamber remains entirely unelected even without the hereditary element.

Government Adopts First Anti-Muslim Hostility Definition

The Government published a non-statutory definition of anti-Muslim hostility on Monday — the first formal attempt to define such prejudice. Home Office statistics show anti-Muslim hate crimes at a record 4,478 in the year to March 2025, representing nearly half of all religious hate crimes. The definition covers people perceived to be Muslim, including Sikhs and Hindus targeted because of their appearance.

Dive deeper

The definition was developed by an independent working group appointed in 2025. It explicitly protects free speech: “ridiculing or insulting a religion, including Islam, or portraying it in a manner some adherents might find disrespectful” remains protected expression. The Muslim Council of Britain said the definition “falls short” by not using the term Islamophobia. Humanists UK welcomed the approach as preferable to earlier proposals that risked conflating criticism of Islam with bigotry against Muslims. The timing is politically sensitive given rising community tensions since the Iran conflict began.

BBC World Service Faces Funding Crisis as March Deadline Looms

The Public Accounts Committee said it was “deeply troubled” by the BBC World Service’s funding uncertainty, with the current FCDO arrangement expiring at the end of March. The Service’s budget fell 21 per cent in real terms between 2021 and 2026, while Russia and China spend a combined £6–8 billion annually on global media operations.

Dive deeper

The World Service reaches 365 million people weekly and remains the most trusted international broadcaster, but MPs warned it risks losing that position as hostile states expand their output. Russia’s RT and China’s CGTN have invested heavily in African and Asian language services — precisely the markets where the BBC has been forced to cut back. A last-minute funding deal may be announced next week, but the PAC criticised the Government for leaving the Service unable to plan or invest. The crisis is particularly acute during the Iran conflict, when accurate, independent reporting from the region is at a premium.

Overseas Dentists Exam Places Expanded Tenfold to Tackle Access Crisis

The Government announced a near-tenfold expansion of places on the Licence in Dental Surgery exam, unlocking thousands of fully qualified overseas-trained dentists currently unable to practise in the UK. Limited exam capacity has been the main bottleneck; many qualified dentists have waited years for a place. The move aims to address a dental access crisis that has left millions unable to find an NHS dentist.

Dive deeper

An estimated 12 million adults in England have been unable to secure an NHS dental appointment when they needed one. The shortage is most acute in rural and coastal areas, where practices have closed or stopped taking NHS patients entirely. The Royal College of Surgeons, which administers the exam, will expand testing capacity from roughly 400 places per year to nearly 4,000. The first additional cohort is expected to qualify by autumn 2026. Dental charities welcomed the announcement but warned that exam expansion alone will not solve the crisis without reforms to the NHS dental contract, which many practitioners consider financially unviable.

One To Read

The Gulf Monarchies Are Caught Between Iran’s Desperation and America’s Recklessness

Carnegie Endowment · A sharp analysis of how the GCC states are navigating the impossible position of hosting US forces while absorbing Iranian strikes — and why their diplomatic push matters more than the bombs.

☼

Morning Briefing

Friday 13 March 2026 — 08:01 GMT

What It Means For You

Brent crude holds above $100 for a second day; petrol nearing 165p/litre — filling a 55-litre tank now costs roughly £91, up £10 from a fortnight ago
Bank of England rate cut next week all but ruled out as oil shock clouds inflation outlook — tracker and variable-rate mortgage holders face sustained higher costs through spring
Inheritance tax relief changes take effect 6 April: agricultural and business property allowance rises to £2.5m — affected estates should review arrangements now

Geopolitical

Four US Crew Killed as KC-135 Tanker Crashes in Iraq

A US Air Force KC-135 Stratotanker crashed in western Iraq on Thursday while supporting Operation Epic Fury, killing four crew members. The Pentagon said the crash was not caused by hostile fire; a second KC-135 made an emergency landing at Ben Gurion Airport. It is the first loss of a US tanker aircraft in thirteen years.

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The loss brings the American death toll to eleven since the campaign began on 28 February, with eight further personnel seriously wounded. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed responsibility, contradicting official US accounts. The KC-135 fleet is the backbone of American aerial refuelling operations and any sustained attrition would constrain sortie rates. The crash underscores the operational strain of a campaign now spanning multiple theatres across the Middle East.

Iran Warns Oil Could Hit $200 as Three More Ships Struck

IRGC naval forces attacked three further commercial vessels in the Persian Gulf overnight, bringing the total to six ships hit in 48 hours. Iran’s oil ministry warned Brent crude could reach $200 per barrel if the conflict escalates. Brent settled at $100.84, its second consecutive close above $100.

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The widening of attacks to vessels in Iraqi territorial waters threatens Baghdad’s 3.3 million barrels per day of southern exports. Insurance premiums for Gulf-bound tankers have risen fifteenfold since the war began. Goldman Sachs raised its Q4 Brent forecast and warned spot prices could exceed the 2008 peak of $147 if Hormuz flows remain depressed. The International Maritime Organisation will convene an extraordinary session next week to address threats to Gulf shipping.

Pezeshkian Sets Three Conditions for Peace as Day 14 Begins

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian outlined three preconditions to end the war: recognition of Tehran’s legitimate rights, payment of reparations, and firm international guarantees against future aggression. His demands echo those of new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei, who vowed to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed.

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The alignment between the civilian president and the new supreme leader suggests a unified Iranian negotiating position, though Western intelligence agencies remain uncertain whether Mojtaba commands genuine authority over the IRGC. The maximalist demands — particularly reparations — are unlikely to find any traction in Washington. CENTCOM reports that approximately 6,000 targets have been struck inside Iran, with 90 per cent of air defences degraded, yet Tehran’s retaliatory capacity from underground missile stores remains significant.

UNHCR: 3.2 Million Iranians Displaced; Civilian Toll Passes 1,348

The United Nations refugee agency said up to 3.2 million Iranians have been forced from their homes since 28 February. Iran’s UN representative said at least 1,348 civilians have been killed as the conflict enters Day 14. Lebanese health officials report 687 dead from concurrent Israeli operations.

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The displacement figure places the humanitarian toll on a scale comparable to the early months of the Syrian civil war. Aid agencies warn that Iran’s infrastructure for sheltering internally displaced people is wholly inadequate, with many sleeping in vehicles or open fields. Seven US soldiers have died and eight are seriously wounded, mainly from retaliatory attacks on American bases in neighbouring countries. The crisis is compounded by Lebanon, where 750,000 people have also fled their homes.

Ukraine Hits Russian Electronics Plant Building Missile Parts

Ukraine used Storm Shadow missiles to strike a Russian factory producing microchips and high-end electronics for missile guidance systems. Separately, Presidents Trump and Zelenskyy confirmed agreement on 90–95 per cent of a Ukraine peace framework, though security guarantees remain unresolved.

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The strike on the electronics plant marks a shift from isolated attacks on oil infrastructure to systematic targeting of Russia’s military-industrial base. Classified Russian documents obtained by Ukrainian intelligence reveal total irreversible losses exceeding 1.3 million personnel since February 2022. The near-agreement on a peace framework represents the most concrete diplomatic advance since the Istanbul talks, though European leaders remain cautious about any settlement that rewards territorial conquest.

UK Domestic Politics

Reeves Faces Treasury Committee Grilling on Iran Oil Shock

Chancellor Rachel Reeves appears before the Treasury Committee today alongside the OBR and IFS to defend the Spring Forecast. The OBR cut 2026 growth to 1.1 per cent before the conflict; City economists now model 0.6–0.8 per cent if Brent stays above $100. Rising gilt yields threaten to eliminate the £9.9bn fiscal buffer.

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The Spring Forecast’s assumptions have been rendered obsolete within days by the Iran crisis. The Resolution Foundation estimates sustained energy prices could add £500 to the typical household bill and a full percentage point to inflation. Reeves faces a trilemma at the autumn budget: breach her fiscal rules, announce further spending cuts, or raise taxes — any of which would compound Labour’s difficulties ahead of the May local elections.

Courts and Tribunals Bill Provokes Cross-Party Fury on Jury Trials

MPs debated the Courts and Tribunals Bill for the first time this week, with the legislation to remove defendants’ right to elect jury trial for either-way offences drawing fierce opposition. Nearly 40 Labour backbenchers have written to Starmer refusing to support the measure. The Law Society and Bar Council condemned the reforms.

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The bill would allow judge-only trials for offences carrying up to three years’ imprisonment, affecting one in four fraud cases. The Government argues it is essential to reduce the Crown Court backlog of 73,000 cases. Critics counter that removing jury trials undermines a constitutional right dating to Magna Carta. The Labour rebellion represents the most serious internal challenge to Starmer’s legislative programme since the general election.

Crime and Policing Bill Enters Final Report Stage Debates

The Crime and Policing Bill continues its report stage in the House of Lords, with peers debating amendments on knife crime, anti-social behaviour and violence against women. The bill creates new offences for possessing knives with intent and increases maximum penalties for selling prohibited weapons.

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The legislation is one of the most significant criminal justice measures of this Parliament, touching on issues from shoplifting to child sexual exploitation. Peers have tabled amendments seeking to strengthen protections for retail workers. The bill is expected to proceed to third reading before Easter, though several contentious amendments on protest rights remain unresolved after the Government suffered five defeats on the separate NI Pensions Bill this week.

Inheritance Tax Relief Reforms Take Effect in Three Weeks

The Government confirmed changes to Agricultural Property Relief and Business Property Relief from 6 April. The allowance rises from £1m to £2.5m following December’s partial U-turn; assets above the threshold face a 20 per cent effective rate. Spouses may transfer unused allowances, reducing affected estates from 375 to 185.

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The reforms remain contentious despite the increased threshold. The National Farmers’ Union argues that land values in many regions mean family farms will still be caught by the charge. Around 85 per cent of estates claiming agricultural relief are forecast to pay no additional tax, but the remaining 15 per cent face bills that could force asset sales. The changes represent the most significant reform of agricultural inheritance tax since the relief was introduced in 1992.

Defence Spending Pressure Mounts as Iran Conflict Enters Third Week

Cross-party pressure on Starmer to accelerate defence spending has intensified as the Iran war enters Day 14. Military chiefs warn of a £28bn budget shortfall; NATO allies agreed a 5 per cent of GDP target by 2035 at the February summit. The Chancellor has resisted, citing £9.9bn of headroom now under severe strain.

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The current commitment of 2.5 per cent of GDP by 2027 falls well short of what defence chiefs say is needed. Finding billions more without further tax rises appears arithmetically challenging after the Spring Statement already trimmed departmental budgets. The debate exposes a fundamental tension in Labour’s fiscal strategy between its domestic spending commitments and the rapidly deteriorating international security environment, with the Iran crisis consuming significant military resources.

One To Read

Why the Iran War May Not Trigger a Ukraine-Style Inflation Shock

CNBC · A measured analysis of Europe’s energy resilience since 2022 and why this oil shock, though severe, may prove less devastating than the last.

☼

Morning Briefing

Thursday 12 March 2026 — 07:57 GMT

What It Means For You

Brent crude climbs 5% to $91.60 after Hormuz shipping attacks — expect pump prices to rise toward 160p/litre this week; filling a 55-litre tank now costs roughly £88
Gilt yields ease to 4.55% ahead of Bank of England decision on 19 March — rate cut odds fall to 30%; tracker mortgage holders unlikely to see relief this month
Employment Rights Act takes effect 6 April: statutory sick pay from day one, zero-hours contract protections — employers and staff should review terms now

Geopolitical

Iran Strikes Three Ships Near Hormuz as War Enters Day 13

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard attacked at least three commercial vessels near the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, hitting ships flying Japanese, Thai and Marshall Islands flags. The Thailand-flagged Mayuree Naree caught fire; twenty crew were rescued by the Royal Navy of Oman but three remain missing. IRGC naval commander Alireza Tangsiri declared all ships must obtain Iran’s approval to transit the strait.

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The attacks mark a significant escalation of Iran’s strategy to leverage the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20 per cent of global oil passes daily. The US military responded by destroying 16 mine-laying vessels near the waterway. Insurance premiums for Gulf-bound tankers have surged tenfold since the conflict began, with several major shipping lines now routing around the Cape of Good Hope. The economic toll of the maritime disruption may ultimately prove more consequential than the air campaign itself.

Trump and Putin Hold First Phone Call of 2026

President Trump and Vladimir Putin spoke for one hour on Monday in their first conversation since December. The White House initiated the call; Putin urged a “quick political and diplomatic settlement” of the Iran conflict. Trump told reporters Putin “wants to be helpful” and pressed him to end the war in Ukraine.

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The call underscores Moscow’s delicate balancing act: Russia has benefited from surging energy prices — its Urals blend climbed above $70 per barrel, well above the $59 budgeted — yet its ally Iran faces sustained bombardment. The leaders also discussed temporarily allowing India to purchase Russian oil to ease global supply pressures. European leaders warned that Russia is the only “winner” of the Iran conflict, as Western attention and resources are diverted from Ukraine.

Tehran Claims 10,000 Civilian Sites Bombed; 1,300 Dead

Iranian officials say US and Israeli forces have struck nearly 10,000 civilian sites and killed more than 1,300 civilians since hostilities began on 28 February. Explosions rocked Tehran, Tabriz, Karaj and Kish Island overnight. The Pentagon insists its targeting remains confined to military and IRGC infrastructure.

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Iran’s casualty figures cannot be independently verified, but satellite imagery corroborates widespread damage across multiple cities. Tehran’s broader count includes dual-use infrastructure such as power stations, bridges and communications hubs. Iran’s ballistic missile launches have fallen 90 per cent and drone launches 83 per cent from pre-war levels, suggesting the campaign is degrading military capability. Seven US soldiers have died and eight are seriously injured, mainly from retaliatory attacks on American bases in neighbouring countries.

IEA Releases 400 Million Barrels in Largest-Ever Reserve Draw

The International Energy Agency agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil — the largest draw from strategic reserves in history — to offset supply disruption from the Hormuz closure. The US separately authorised 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Brent crude rose 5% to $91.60 despite the intervention.

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The combined release dwarfs the previous record of 120 million barrels during the 2011 Libyan civil war. Analysts at KPMG warn of an economic “butterfly effect”: even in their base case, where the Strait reopens by late March, CPI inflation in the US could reach 3.3 per cent by year-end. A prolonged closure of three to six months could push core inflation to 4.1 per cent. Markets remain sceptical that reserves alone can compensate for the loss of Iranian and Gulf transit volumes.

Ukraine Deploys Drone Specialists to Gulf States

President Zelenskyy confirmed that Ukrainian units experienced in countering Iranian-style drones are now operating in Qatar, the UAE and Saudi Arabia. The deployment deepens Kyiv’s security ties with Gulf monarchies and positions Ukraine as a defence partner for nations threatened by Iranian missile and drone attacks.

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Ukraine’s battlefield expertise against Iranian Shahed drones — gained through two years of Russian bombardment — has become a valuable diplomatic asset. The deployments serve a dual purpose: they strengthen Ukraine’s case for continued Western support by demonstrating its strategic utility, whilst offering Gulf states proven counter-drone capabilities at a moment of acute vulnerability. The arrangement also opens potential arms sales channels for Ukrainian defence firms developing next-generation electronic warfare systems.

UK Domestic Politics

Finance Bill Completes Lords Stages as Tax Rises Take Shape

The Finance (No. 2) Bill is set to complete all remaining stages in the House of Lords today, implementing the Autumn Budget’s key measures. From 6 April, basic and higher dividend tax rates rise by 2 percentage points. Inheritance tax relief for farms and businesses is capped at £2.5 million at 100 per cent, with 50 per cent relief thereafter.

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The inheritance tax reforms remain deeply contentious despite the Government’s concession in raising the threshold from £1 million to £2.5 million. Farmers’ groups argue that many family farms exceed this cap when land values are included. The National Farmers’ Union warns that the policy will force farm sales and undermine food security. With the Bill now effectively law, attention shifts to implementation and the practical impact on estate planning from April.

Starmer Presses Treasury for Faster Defence Spending Uplift

Keir Starmer is pushing Rachel Reeves to accelerate defence spending beyond the current 2.6 per cent of GDP target for 2027, after military chiefs warned of a £28 billion hole in the defence budget. The Ministry of Defence believes swifter action is needed to restore hollowed-out forces. The Chancellor has reportedly resisted the pressure.

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The Iran conflict has intensified the political pressure on Starmer, with Labour peer Baroness Ashton urging the Government to “go further and faster” on defence. NATO allies have agreed a collective target of 5 per cent of GDP by 2035, making the UK’s current trajectory look increasingly modest. Reeves’s resistance reflects genuine fiscal constraints: the Spring Statement already cut welfare and trimmed departmental budgets to rebuild headroom. Finding billions more for defence without further tax rises appears arithmetically challenging.

Reeves’s Welfare Cuts Take Effect Next Month

The health-related element of Universal Credit for new claimants will be cut from £97 to £50 per week from April, with under-22s excluded entirely. The OBR estimates savings of £4.8 billion. Day-to-day public spending growth is trimmed to 1.2 per cent in real terms, and 10,000 civil service roles face the axe by 2030.

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The welfare cuts represent a sharp departure from Labour’s pre-election rhetoric and have drawn fierce criticism from disability charities and backbench MPs. The savings are essential to maintaining the Chancellor’s fiscal rules after the OBR halved its 2026 growth forecast from 1.4 per cent to 1.1 per cent. With unemployment projected to rise to 5.3 per cent, the timing of benefit reductions has been questioned even by sympathetic economists who acknowledge the fiscal arithmetic demands difficult choices.

Employment Rights Act Reforms Take Effect 6 April

Sweeping changes under the Employment Rights Act 2025 come into force next month: statutory sick pay from day one, zero-hours contract protections, day-one rights to unpaid parental and paternity leave, and new whistleblowing provisions covering sexual harassment. The Fair Work Agency becomes operational on 7 April.

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The reforms represent the most significant expansion of workers’ rights in a generation and fulfil a central Labour manifesto commitment. Business groups have warned of increased costs at a time when employer National Insurance contributions are also rising. The removal of the three-day waiting period for statutory sick pay is expected to benefit 1.3 million low-paid workers. Employers in hospitality and retail, which rely heavily on flexible contracts, face the greatest operational adjustments.

OBR Halves Growth Forecast; Unemployment Set to Rise

The Office for Budget Responsibility has cut its 2026 GDP growth forecast from 1.4 per cent to 1.1 per cent, citing global uncertainty and the Iran conflict’s impact on energy prices. CPI inflation is projected at 3.0 per cent in January, with the 2 per cent target not expected until late 2026. Unemployment is forecast to rise to 5.3 per cent.

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The downgrade reflects a confluence of headwinds: elevated energy costs, the lagged effects of employer NICs rises, and weakening consumer confidence. Mortgage approvals fell 10 per cent year-on-year in January to 59,999, suggesting the housing market is cooling. The Bank of England faces an acute dilemma at its 19 March meeting: inflation pressures argue against cutting rates, but deteriorating growth data point to the need for monetary stimulus. Markets now price only a 30 per cent chance of a cut.

One To Read

Iran War Could Trigger an Economic ‘Butterfly Effect’ and Keep Inflation Elevated for Years

Fortune · KPMG’s chief economist explains how the conflict’s energy shock could cascade through supply chains, wages and central bank policy for years to come.

☽

Evening Briefing

Thursday 12 March 2026 — 18:55 GMT

What It Means For You

Brent crude holds above $100; petrol prices on track for 165p/litre this week — filling a 55-litre tank now costs roughly £91, up £8 from a fortnight ago
S&P 500 falls 1.2% to lowest since November — pension funds and ISA holders with US equity exposure face further short-term losses
NI Pensions Bill clears Lords with £5,000 salary sacrifice threshold — check whether your workplace pension arrangements are affected from April 2029

Geopolitical

Mojtaba Khamenei Demands US Bases Close in First Address

↻ This morning: new leader silent → This evening: first statement demands base closures

Iran’s new supreme leader issued his first public statement, declaring the Strait of Hormuz must remain closed as a “tool of pressure” and demanding all US military bases in the Middle East shut immediately. Mojtaba Khamenei warned Iran would “seize or destroy” enemy assets if war reparations are refused.

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Appointed on 9 March after his father Ali Khamenei was killed in US-Israeli strikes, Mojtaba faces an immediate legitimacy crisis. His maximalist demands — base closures, reparations and sovereignty guarantees — echo President Pezeshkian’s three preconditions for peace but go further in threatening asset seizures. Western intelligence agencies remain uncertain whether Mojtaba commands genuine authority over the IRGC or is merely amplifying its position. The tone suggests no near-term path to de-escalation.

Three More Ships Hit in Gulf; Iran Warns of $200 Oil

↻ This morning: three ships attacked → This evening: three more struck; Iran warns of $200 oil

IRGC naval forces struck three further commercial vessels in the Persian Gulf on Thursday, bringing the total to at least six ships hit in 48 hours. Iraqi port operations remain suspended. Iran’s oil ministry warned Brent crude could reach $200 per barrel if the conflict escalates, as the price settled above $100.

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The widening of attacks to Iraqi territorial waters marks a dangerous escalation; Iraq exports roughly 3.3 million barrels per day through its southern Basra terminal. Goldman Sachs raised its Q4 Brent forecast and warned spot prices could exceed the 2008 peak of $147 if Hormuz flows remain depressed. Insurance premiums for Gulf-bound tankers have risen fifteenfold since the war began, with several major shipping lines now routing around the Cape of Good Hope at enormous additional cost.

UNHCR: 3.2 Million Displaced Inside Iran as Crisis Deepens

The United Nations refugee agency reported that up to 3.2 million Iranians have been temporarily displaced since hostilities began on 28 February. Families are fleeing Tehran, Tabriz and other cities for northern and rural areas. The figure is expected to rise as fighting persists across multiple provinces.

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The displacement figure — representing roughly 600,000 to one million households — places the humanitarian toll of this conflict on a scale comparable to the early months of the Syrian civil war. Aid agencies warn that Iran’s infrastructure for sheltering internally displaced people is inadequate, with many sleeping in vehicles or open fields. The crisis is compounded by Lebanon, where 750,000 people have fled their homes since the concurrent Israeli operations against Hezbollah.

Trump and Zelenskyy Agree on 95% of Ukraine Peace Framework

Presidents Trump and Zelenskyy confirmed they have reached agreement on 90 to 95 per cent of a peace proposal framework for Ukraine. The remaining sticking points reportedly concern security guarantees and the status of occupied territories. Russia’s total personnel losses since February 2022 now exceed 1.27 million.

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The near-agreement comes as Ukraine shifts from isolated strikes on Russian oil infrastructure to systematic attacks on military-industrial targets producing missiles and aviation components. An oil depot in Russia’s Krasnodar region was set ablaze by Ukrainian drones on Thursday. The diplomatic progress on a peace framework, however incomplete, represents the most concrete advance since the 2022 Istanbul talks, though European leaders remain cautious about any deal that rewards territorial conquest.

IEA’s Historic Reserve Release Fails to Calm Markets

The largest strategic petroleum reserve release in history — 400 million barrels across IEA member states, including 172 million from the US — has failed to prevent Brent crude from breaching $100. The S&P 500 fell 1.2% to its lowest close since November as energy costs weigh on equities worldwide.

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The combined release dwarfs the 120-million-barrel draw during the 2011 Libyan civil war, yet markets remain sceptical that reserves alone can compensate for the loss of 20 per cent of global oil transit through Hormuz. KPMG’s chief economist warned of an economic “butterfly effect”: even in the base case of a late-March reopening, US CPI inflation could reach 3.3 per cent by year-end. A prolonged closure of three to six months could push core inflation to 4.1 per cent globally.

UK Domestic Politics

Mandelson Files Show Starmer Overruled Epstein Warnings

The 147 pages released by the Government reveal officials explicitly warned Keir Starmer of a “reputational risk” before he appointed Peter Mandelson as US ambassador in December 2024. Documents show Mandelson’s relationship with Epstein continued from 2009 to 2011; he reportedly stayed at Epstein’s home while the latter was in prison.

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The files are the first batch in a wider disclosure demanded by Parliament’s Intelligence and Security Committee. They confirm Starmer proceeded with the appointment despite explicit warnings, only sacking Mandelson nine months later when the full depth of the Epstein relationship emerged. Mandelson, arrested in February on suspicion of misconduct in public office, sought £547,000 in severance but received £75,000. The affair continues to erode Starmer’s judgement credentials at a time when Labour trails in polls.

Home Secretary Imposes Month-Long March Ban in London

Shabana Mahmood approved the Metropolitan Police’s request to ban the Al-Quds Day march from 11 March to 11 April — the first protest march prohibition since 2012. The Met cited the Iran war’s heightened tensions and recent counter-terrorism arrests of four men suspected of spying on the Jewish community.

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The Islamic Human Rights Commission, which organises the annual demonstration, has vowed to mount a legal challenge. A stationary protest remains permitted but will be strictly policed. The ban reflects the Government’s difficult balancing act between freedom of assembly and public safety; community tensions have risen sharply since the Iran conflict began, with antisemitic and Islamophobic incidents both increasing according to monitoring groups.

NI Pensions Bill Clears Lords with £5,000 Threshold

The National Insurance Contributions (Employer Pensions Contributions) Bill completed its third reading in the Lords today. A cross-party amendment raised the salary sacrifice threshold from the Government’s proposed £2,000 to £5,000, above which employers must pay NICs on pension contributions. Changes take effect from April 2029.

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The Lords inflicted five defeats on the Government during report stage, including exempting contributions above the cap from student loan repayment calculations and carving out small businesses and charities from the provision entirely. The bill now returns to the Commons, where ministers must decide whether to accept or reverse the amendments. The higher threshold reduces expected Treasury revenue but protects more workers’ pension arrangements from the new charge.

Crime and Policing Bill Nears End of Lords Report Stage

The Crime and Policing Bill reached its fifth day of report stage in the House of Lords, with peers debating amendments on knife crime, anti-social behaviour and violence against women. The bill creates new offences for possessing knives with intent and increases maximum penalties for selling prohibited weapons.

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The bill represents one of the most significant pieces of criminal justice legislation in this Parliament, touching on issues from shoplifting to child sexual exploitation and youth radicalisation. Peers have tabled amendments seeking to strengthen protections for retail workers and expand the scope of anti-social behaviour orders. With one further day of report stage remaining, the bill is expected to proceed to third reading before Easter, though several contentious amendments on protest rights remain unresolved.

Starmer Under Pressure to Accelerate Defence Spending

Military chiefs have warned of a £28 billion hole in the defence budget as the Prime Minister presses the Treasury to move faster toward 3 per cent of GDP on defence. NATO allies agreed a collective target of 5 per cent by 2035 at the February summit. The Chancellor has reportedly resisted the pressure, citing narrow fiscal headroom.

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The Iran conflict has intensified political pressure on Starmer, with cross-party voices urging the Government to go further and faster than the current 2.6 per cent commitment for 2027. Finding billions more for defence without further tax rises appears arithmetically challenging after the Spring Statement already cut welfare and trimmed departmental budgets. The debate exposes a fundamental tension in Labour’s fiscal strategy between its domestic spending commitments and the rapidly deteriorating international security environment.

One To Read

How Will the Iran Conflict Impact Oil Prices?

Goldman Sachs · Detailed scenario analysis of the conflict’s impact on crude, LNG and global inflation — essential reading as Brent breaches $100.

☼

Morning Briefing

Wednesday 11 March 2026 — 08:03 GMT

What It Means For You

Brent stabilising near $88 after last week’s $120 spike — RAC expects pump prices to ease toward 150p/litre; filling a 55-litre tank now £6 cheaper than feared
Gilt yields climb to 4.62%, highest since November — fixed-rate mortgage repricing likely; two-year fixes may edge back above 5.1% this week
Workers’ rights reforms take effect 6 April: statutory sick pay from day one, zero-hours contract protections — check your employment terms now

Geopolitical

Iran Says 10,000 Civilian Sites Struck as War Enters Day 12

Tehran claims US and Israeli forces have bombed nearly 10,000 civilian sites and killed more than 1,300 civilians since Operation Epic Fury began on 28 February. Explosions rocked Tehran, Tabriz, Karaj and Kish Island overnight. Defence Secretary Hegseth announced Tuesday would be “yet again, our most intense day of strikes”, deploying the largest sortie of fighters and bombers to date.

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Iran’s civilian casualty figures cannot be independently verified, but satellite imagery corroborates widespread infrastructure damage across multiple cities. The Pentagon insists its targeting is confined to military and IRGC assets; Tehran’s broader count includes dual-use infrastructure such as power stations, bridges and communications hubs. The intensification suggests Washington is pressing for maximum degradation of Iranian capabilities before political pressure forces a halt. Iran’s ballistic missile launches have fallen 90 per cent and drone launches 83 per cent, indicating the campaign is achieving its stated military objectives.

Gulf States Intercept Fresh Iranian Missile and Drone Waves

Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and the UAE reported intercepting Iranian missiles and drones early on Wednesday local time. Bahrain confirmed it had destroyed 105 missiles and 176 drones since the war began; a 29-year-old woman was killed in Manama when a projectile struck a residential building. Saudi air defences intercepted four drones bound for the Shaybah oilfield. It is the first conflict in which Iran has struck all six GCC member states.

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The expansion of Iranian strikes to all GCC nations marks a dramatic escalation from Tehran’s initial posture, which pledged to spare neighbouring states unless they hosted offensive operations against Iran. The attacks appear designed to raise the cost of the Gulf states’ tacit support for US basing rights. Bahrain — home to the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet — has borne a disproportionate share of the bombardment. The Shaybah oilfield, deep in Saudi Arabia’s Empty Quarter, was previously targeted by Houthi drones in 2019; its vulnerability underscores the limits of even sophisticated air defence systems against saturation attacks.

Brent Stabilises Near $88 After Last Week’s $120 Spike

Brent crude traded at $87.95 on Wednesday morning, consolidating after last week’s violent swing from $120 to $87. A diplomatic delegation secured commitments to keep Hormuz shipping lanes partially open, and the US Navy announced escort missions for commercial tankers — though no vessel has yet completed a Navy-escorted transit. Iran continues to ship oil to China through the strait, with 11.7 million barrels dispatched since the war began.

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The $30 price collapse drained the “war premium” but analysts caution it may prove premature. Mine fears persist: ten vessels have been attacked in or near Hormuz, killing at least seven seafarers. Insurance underwriters have withdrawn war-risk cover for the strait, effectively doubling transit costs for those willing to attempt the passage. Iran’s continued oil exports to China — circumventing its own declared blockade — expose the selective nature of the strait closure and have drawn sharp criticism from Gulf producers unable to ship their own crude.

Russia Emerges as Early Winner of Iran Conflict

European Council President Antonio Costa declared Russia the “only winner” of the US-Israeli war on Iran. Brent’s surge above $100 last week pushed Russia’s Urals blend past $70 per barrel — well above the $59 assumed in Moscow’s 2026 budget. Global attention has shifted from Ukraine, and Moscow has internalised production of Iranian-designed Shahed drones, reducing its dependence on Tehran.

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The windfall from higher oil prices comes at a moment when Russia’s war economy was under strain. The Urals blend premium strengthens the Kremlin’s fiscal position and reduces incentives to accept a Ukraine ceasefire. Chatham House analysis notes that the conflict has paradoxically weakened Russia’s leverage in the Middle East — Moscow could not protect its Iranian partner, and its influence over regional outcomes has diminished. Lavrov has signalled that Russia will delay engagement with the Jeddah ceasefire framework, calculating that prolonged US involvement in the Gulf serves Moscow’s strategic interests.

Ukraine Ceasefire Framework Agreed in Jeddah; Russia Stalls

Ukraine and the United States concluded nine hours of talks in Jeddah, with Kyiv accepting a 30-day ceasefire framework. Washington immediately resumed military aid and intelligence sharing. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Moscow was “familiarising itself” with the joint statement but reiterated demands for a comprehensive peace deal. Zelenskyy offered Ukrainian drone-defence expertise to Middle Eastern states.

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Russia’s foot-dragging is strategically rational: the Iran war boosts Moscow’s oil revenues while consuming American diplomatic bandwidth. The outstanding sticking points remain Crimea’s sovereignty and Ukraine’s NATO membership timeline. Zelenskyy’s offer of “shahed” expertise to Gulf states is a shrewd diplomatic move, positioning Ukraine as a valuable security partner at precisely the moment when Middle Eastern nations are reassessing their defence relationships.

UK Domestic Politics

Courts Bill Survives First Vote Despite Labour Rebellion

The Courts and Tribunals Bill cleared its second reading by 304 votes to 203, a majority of 101, despite ten Labour MPs voting against and 90 abstaining. The bill would replace juries with single judges for cases where the likely sentence is three years or fewer. Lord Chancellor Lammy argued the Crown Court backlog of 73,000 cases — including 2,000 rape trials waiting over a year — demanded radical reform.

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The rebellion is the largest under Starmer’s premiership and reflects deep unease on the backbenches about curtailing a constitutional right dating to Magna Carta. Karl Turner MP led the opposition, calling the changes a “dereliction of duty” without additional Crown Court funding. More than 3,200 lawyers — including 300 King’s Counsel and 22 retired judges — marched on Parliament ahead of the vote. The bill faces a far more hostile reception in the Lords, where cross-bench peers are expected to table significant amendments.

New Workers’ Rights Take Effect from 6 April

Statutory sick pay from day one, an end to exploitative zero-hours contracts, and day-one paternity and parental leave come into force on 6 April. The reforms extend SSP to 1.3 million low-paid workers previously excluded by the £125-per-week earnings threshold. The government also confirmed protections for pregnant workers and a new statutory right to bereavement leave.

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The Employment Rights Bill represents the most significant overhaul of workplace legislation in a generation. Employers’ groups have warned of increased costs, particularly for small businesses already contending with the National Insurance rise from April. The Federation of Small Businesses estimates the combined cost of new employment obligations at £4.5 billion annually. However, the TUC argues that reducing presenteeism — workers attending while ill — will boost productivity and reduce the spread of illness in workplaces.

Water Companies Sent Bailiffs to Thousands of Homes

The EFRA Committee published data showing water companies in England and Wales used bailiffs against indebted customers 35,000 times in 2024, up from 15,000 in 2020. Yorkshire Water recorded 6,124 bailiff visits in 2024–25 alone. Southern Water instructed bailiffs more than 8,000 times in 2024. The figures mark the first time this data has been made public, as water firms are exempt from the Freedom of Information Act.

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The scale of bailiff use against customers of an essential public service has prompted calls for regulatory reform. Water debt differs from other consumer debts because customers cannot switch provider — they are tied to a regional monopoly. Consumer groups argue that the post-pandemic surge in enforcement reflects a failure by companies to offer adequate hardship schemes. The revelation is politically significant as it coincides with public anger over sewage discharges and executive bonuses across the water industry.

Inheritance Tax Farm Relief Changes Take Effect Next Month

From 6 April, agricultural and business property attracting inheritance tax relief will be capped at £2.5 million per person at the full 100 per cent rate; assets above this threshold face an effective 20 per cent tax. Couples may pass on up to £5 million of combined farm and business assets. The Treasury estimates 185 estates will pay more IHT in 2026–27, while 85 per cent of claims will be unaffected.

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The changes, announced at the Autumn 2024 Budget, provoked months of protest from farming groups who argue that land values have inflated beyond the cap. The NFU contends that the £2.5 million threshold will force family farms to sell land to meet tax bills, accelerating consolidation. The government has responded with a concession allowing payments over ten annual interest-free instalments. Rural constituencies are politically sensitive for Labour ahead of the May local elections, and several Labour MPs in agricultural seats have voiced concern privately.

Rail Fare Freeze Saves Commuters up to £300 Per Year

The first rail fare freeze in three decades took effect across England, covering all regulated fares including season tickets and off-peak returns. The government estimates the freeze will save passengers £600 million in 2026–27, with commuters on the busiest routes saving more than £300 annually. The measure accompanies the ongoing renationalisation of rail services under Great British Railways.

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The freeze applies to approximately 45 per cent of fares — those regulated by the government — while unregulated fares set by train operators may still rise. The cost is borne by the Exchequer rather than operators, adding to the transport budget at a time of fiscal constraint. Transport economists note the freeze addresses a longstanding grievance: UK rail fares have risen 40 per cent in real terms since privatisation in 1993. The renationalisation programme has so far brought four operators under public control, with the remaining franchises due to transfer by 2028.

One To Read

How Will the Iran War Affect the Global Economy?

Chatham House · A rigorous assessment of the conflict’s economic consequences — from oil supply shocks to hidden vulnerabilities in helium and semiconductor supply chains.

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Evening Briefing

Wednesday 11 March 2026 — 18:12 GMT

What It Means For You

Brent crude rebounds to $91 despite record IEA release — petrol prices likely to hold above 155p/litre this week; filling a 55-litre tank costs roughly £85
Fuel duty freeze ends September — staggered increases will add 5p/litre by March 2027, costing the average driver an extra £130 per year
FTSE 100 rebounds 1.59% to 10,412 — pension and ISA holders see partial recovery after three consecutive days of losses

Prime Minister’s Questions Wednesday 11 March 2026

Badenoch Presses Starmer on Fuel Duty Rise

The Conservative leader devoted all her questions to the Chancellor’s confirmation that the 15-year fuel duty freeze will end in September, demanding: “Why does the Prime Minister think now is the right time to increase the cost of petrol?” Starmer declined to engage directly, insisting: “Fuel duty is frozen, it is going to remain frozen until September, and we will keep the situation under review in light of what is happening in Iran.” He notably stumbled mid-sentence — beginning “There hasn’t been a rise, there isn’t going…” before correcting himself — a slip reporters noted suggested internal government uncertainty about whether the September implementation remains viable. Badenoch turned his language back on him: “The mother of all U-turns is him saying that they are not increasing fuel duty.”

Starmer’s Iran Takedown of Badenoch

The centrepiece of the session. Having supported US-Israeli strikes the previous week, Badenoch had told the BBC in the days since: “I never said we should join.” Starmer arrived prepared. “If I’d asked her last week, her position would be, we support the initial strikes and we want to join the war. This week, she says, we don’t want to join the war. That is the mother of all U-turns on the single most important decision a prime minister ever has to take.” He accused her of suggesting RAF personnel were “just hanging about” and delivered a pointed defence: “Let me tell you what they’ve been doing: flying sorties in seven of the 10 countries in the region, day and night, taking out incoming strikes, protecting the lives of others whilst risking their own.” His closing line drew the loudest cheers from Labour benches: “She has utterly disqualified herself from ever becoming Prime Minister, thankfully she never will.”

Flynn Forces Starmer on Civilian Casualties

SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn raised footage of an American Tomahawk missile striking a primary school, killing 110 children, and asked whether the Prime Minister considered it a war crime. Flynn argued that Starmer “did indeed take us into this war” — a framing Starmer resisted, given the Government’s position that UK involvement is limited to base access and defensive RAF sorties. But Flynn’s point — that this distinction was becoming increasingly untenable as civilian casualties mounted — landed with visible discomfort on the Labour benches. Reporters judged it the most substantively important question of the afternoon.

Davey Invokes Dunblane on Farage’s Handgun Comments

With the 30th anniversary of the Dunblane massacre approaching on 13 March, Ed Davey raised the case of Mick North, father of five-year-old Sophie, who was murdered in the attack. North had called on Farage — who in 2014 described the post-Dunblane handgun ban as “ludicrous” and a “kneejerk” reaction — to renounce those comments; something Farage still refuses to do. Davey told the House: “Thirty years ago this week, a man carried four handguns into Dunblane Primary School and murdered a teacher and 16 children.” Starmer signalled openness to reviewing firearms legislation. In his second question, Davey attacked both Badenoch and Farage for “competing to be Donald Trump’s biggest cheerleader” and their “costly warmongering.”

Personal Attacks: Phil Shiner and Andy Burnham

The session grew explicitly personal. Badenoch mocked Starmer by suggesting the only decisive action he had taken was blocking Andy Burnham from standing in a by-election. She then delivered the sharpest personal attack of the afternoon, telling the Commons that Starmer had worked with “traitor to this country” Phil Shiner — the human rights lawyer struck off in 2017 for pursuing false abuse claims against British troops and convicted of fraud in 2024. Starmer declined to address the Shiner allegation directly, having previously insisted he had “absolutely nothing to do with” him. The Spectator described the session’s end as “the political equivalent of two children telling each other they weren’t invited to their birthday party.”

Speaker Ejects Labour MP for Persistent Disruption

Sir Lindsay Hoyle intervened twice — first rebuking Starmer that this was “Prime Minister’s Questions, not Opposition Questions” given the PM was spending more time attacking Badenoch than answering her. He then lost patience with Labour MP Peter Swallow (Bracknell), pointing at him and delivering a sharp dressing-down: “Mr Swallow, go out. I’ve had enough. Week in, week out.” The ejection was widely circulated on social media, with journalist Kate Ferguson quipping: “The swallow has flown the nest….”

Geopolitical

IEA Agrees Largest-Ever Oil Reserve Release to Calm Markets

↻ This morning: Brent steady at $88 → This evening: IEA releases 400m barrels, Brent at $91

The International Energy Agency agreed to release 400 million barrels from emergency reserves — the largest coordinated intervention in its history. The move responds to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of global crude normally flows. Brent initially dipped but rebounded to $91, suggesting traders view the release as insufficient. The UK will contribute 13.5 million barrels.

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The release dwarfs the 183 million barrels coordinated after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, yet represents barely four days of global consumption. Analysts at Rystad Energy warn Brent could reach $135 if Hormuz remains closed for four months. China, which is not an IEA member and has continued importing Iranian crude through the strait, has not committed to releasing its own reserves. The pace of the release remains uncertain, with estimates ranging from 1.2 to 4 million barrels per day reaching the market.

Iran Launches ‘Most Intense’ Offensive of War on Day 12

↻ This morning: 1,300 civilians reported killed → This evening: 600+ missiles fired at Israel and Gulf

Tehran launched what it called its “most intense” operation, firing more than 600 missiles at Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi air defences intercepted waves of drones targeting the eastern provinces. The Thai-flagged bulk carrier Mayuree Naree was struck in Hormuz; three crew remain missing. Iran simultaneously attacked the UAE’s Ruwais refinery, forcing a precautionary shutdown.

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The escalation in missile volume suggests Iran is expending remaining stockpiles before its launch capabilities are fully degraded. The Pentagon estimates Iran’s ballistic missile capacity has fallen 90 per cent since the war began. The attack on Ruwais — one of the world’s largest refineries — represents a qualitative shift toward economic targets. Iran’s confirmed mining of Hormuz, with 16 minelaying vessels destroyed by the US Navy, raises the spectre of disruption long after hostilities cease.

WHO Warns ‘Black Rain’ from Oil Strikes Poses Health Crisis

The World Health Organisation warned that contaminated “black rain” falling over Tehran and northern Iran from burning oil facilities poses acute respiratory and carcinogenic risks. Strikes on four major depots produced plumes that mixed with rain clouds. Iranian authorities urged 14 million residents to remain indoors. The WHO said the pollution raises “serious questions” about proportionality under humanitarian law.

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The phenomenon draws comparison with the 1991 Kuwaiti oil fires, though those burned in sparsely populated desert rather than near a metropolitan area of 14 million. Hydrocarbons, sulphur oxides and nitrogen compounds have been detected at dangerous levels. The Conflict and Environment Observatory identified four facilities — Karaj, Shehran, Aghdasiyeh and Tehran refinery — as the principal sources. Long-term contamination of groundwater and agricultural land may prove the most enduring consequence of the air campaign.

Russia Giving Iran Specific Drone Targeting Advice, Says West

Russia is providing Iran with specific tactical advice on drone operations to strike US and Gulf targets, according to a Western intelligence official. The support goes beyond previously reported general assistance and represents a new level of military cooperation. Moscow has simultaneously internalised production of Iranian-designed Shahed drones, reducing its dependence on Tehran for the Ukraine war.

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The intelligence assessment complicates the Putin–Trump phone call held on Monday, their first since December, which the Kremlin described as “frank and constructive.” Russia’s dual strategy — advising Iran while profiting from the oil price surge — illustrates Moscow’s opportunistic positioning. European Council President Antonio Costa declared Russia the “only winner” of the conflict. Analysts note Moscow calculates that prolonged US involvement in the Gulf diverts Western attention and resources from Ukraine.

Ukraine Ceasefire Talks Stall as Washington Pivots to Gulf

Washington postponed its sponsored talks between Ukraine and Russia, citing the demands of the Middle East conflict. The Jeddah ceasefire framework agreed last week remains unsigned by Moscow; Kremlin spokesman Peskov said Russia was “familiarising itself” with the text. Zelenskyy offered Ukrainian drone-defence expertise to Gulf states to maintain diplomatic leverage. Russian attacks on Ukrainian civilian areas continued daily.

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The diplomatic hiatus hands Moscow a strategic advantage: higher oil revenues and reduced international pressure coincide with the onset of spring, historically a period of intensified ground operations. Ukraine’s offer of battle-tested drone technology to the Gulf is shrewd but risks further antagonising Russia. Outstanding sticking points — Crimea’s sovereignty and Ukraine’s NATO timeline — remain unresolved. The longer the Iran conflict persists, the further Ukraine recedes from Western political attention.

UK Domestic Politics

Home Secretary Bans Al Quds March in First Order Since 2012

Shabana Mahmood approved a Metropolitan Police request to ban the annual Al Quds Day march planned for 15 March, citing the risk of “serious public disorder.” It is the first march ban since 2012. The order covers central London from 11 March to 11 April. MI5 has foiled more than 20 Iranian state-backed attacks on the UK in the past year.

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The Islamic Human Rights Commission, which organises the march, has vowed a legal challenge, calling the ban “politically charged.” Static assemblies cannot legally be banned, so the Met will impose strict conditions on any stationary protest. The decision reflects the heightened security environment; the Iran war has raised the domestic threat level considerably. Assistant Commissioner Adelekan cited “extreme tensions between factions” as the decisive factor.

Fuel Duty Freeze to End in September After 16 Years

The Chancellor confirmed that fuel duty will begin rising from 1 September, ending a freeze in place since 2011. Increases will be staggered: 1p per litre in September, 2p in December, and 2p in March 2027, returning the rate to 57.95p. The OBR estimates the cumulative cost of freezes since 2011 has reached £120 billion.

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The timing is politically perilous, coinciding with oil prices inflated by the Iran conflict. Industry groups including FairFuelUK have demanded the freeze continue until 2029. The staggered approach is designed to soften the blow, but the RAC estimates the combined increases will add roughly 5p per litre to pump prices by spring 2027, costing the average driver an additional £130 annually. With local elections in May, the Government risks a backlash from motorists already facing elevated prices.

Foreign Affairs Committee Finds UK–EU Reset Lacks Direction

A report by the Foreign Affairs Committee concluded that the Government’s UK–EU reset “lacks clear strategic priorities,” with Brussels achieving “more concrete progress towards their most pressing demands than the UK.” The committee warned that without defined objectives, Britain risks conceding ground on fisheries, youth mobility and regulatory alignment.

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The report is uncomfortable for Starmer, who has staked political capital on improving relations with the EU whilst maintaining red lines on single market membership. The committee’s finding that Brussels has outperformed London at the negotiating table echoes criticism from Eurosceptic commentators. With local elections in May, the Government cannot afford to be seen giving ground to Brussels without tangible benefits for British businesses and citizens.

Royal Mail Faces Parliament Over 219 Million Late Letters

The Business and Trade Committee published data showing 219 million letters were delivered late this year, with only 74.9 per cent of First Class mail arriving on time against a 93 per cent target. A First Class stamp will rise to £1.80 next month — nearly three times its cost a decade ago. Ofcom fined Royal Mail £21 million in October.

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Royal Mail has denied deliberately delaying letters to prioritise more profitable parcel deliveries, but the committee noted the company does not record when such deprioritisation occurs. The postal operator is due before Parliament on 24 March alongside Ofcom and the Communication Workers Union. The revelations coincide with controversial plans to end Saturday second-class deliveries nationally, a move delayed by union negotiations.

MPs Warn Carbon Budget Must Address Fairness for Public Consent

The Environmental Audit Committee warned that fairness is “fundamental” to the legitimacy of the Seventh Carbon Budget and that failure to distribute costs equitably could erode public support for net zero. The committee called for targeted support for lower-income households. The carbon budget, covering 2038 to 2042, will set legally binding emissions limits.

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The warning reflects growing political sensitivity around net zero costs. Recent polling shows support for climate action falls sharply when respondents face specific personal costs. The committee’s emphasis echoes concerns from the Climate Change Committee about a “two-speed transition” in which wealthier households benefit from heat pumps and electric vehicles while poorer families bear disproportionate costs. With energy bills already elevated by the Iran conflict, the timing is particularly acute.

One To Read

IEA Agrees to Release Record 400 Million Barrels of Oil

CNBC · Comprehensive reporting on the largest coordinated oil release in history — what it means for prices, how quickly barrels reach the market, and why traders remain sceptical.

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Weekly Roundup

The Week In Numbers

↑ What Moved Forward

Ukraine–US Peace Framework Nears Completion

Hereditary Peers Bill Clears Final Hurdle

GCC States Unite at UN Security Council

Employment Rights Act Reforms Confirmed for April

• What Stalled

Bank of England Rate Cuts Effectively Shelved

Russia Blocks Ukraine Ceasefire Despite Framework

Labour Immigration Reforms Delayed by Rebellion

→ What To Watch Next Week

Bank of England Rate Decision — Thursday 19 March

Trump’s Coalition Flotilla — Who Signs Up?

Al Quds Day Protests — Sunday 15 March

Petrol Prices Set to Breach 150p

The Global Price Tag of War in the Middle East

Evening Briefing

What It Means For You

Geopolitical

Trump Demands Multinational Warship Fleet to Reopen Hormuz

Iran Strikes UAE as IRGC Declares US Interests ‘Legitimate Targets’

Brent Crude Breaks $103 as Hormuz Blockade Enters Third Week

Ukraine Strikes Russian Electronics Plant Making Missile Components

Iran Death Toll Reaches 1,444 on Day 15 of US-Israel Campaign

UK Domestic Politics

Starmer Faces Pressure to Join Hormuz Warship Coalition

Immigration Rebels Force Government to Review Settlement Timetable

Al Quds March Ban Faces Legal Challenge Ahead of Tomorrow’s Protest

Reform UK Set to Win Most Council Seats Nationally in May Elections

Bank of England Rate Decision Looms as Oil Shock Stalls Easing Cycle

How Much Is the War in Iran Costing You?

Morning Briefing

What It Means For You

Geopolitical

US Bombs Kharg Island Military Targets; Warns Oil Facilities Next

Iran Fires Missiles at Tel Aviv; Smoke Rises Over Israel’s Commercial Hub

IEA Releases Record 400m Barrels as Oil Crisis Enters Third Week

Hegseth Claims Iran’s Supreme Leader ‘Wounded and Disfigured’

Ukraine Recovers 244 sq km as Russian Territorial Gains Hit 20-Month Low

UK Domestic Politics

Bank of England Rate Hold Expected as Oil Shock Clouds Outlook

More Than 100 Labour MPs Revolt Over Immigration Reforms

Labour Braces for Local Election Losses as Reform Surges

Defence Spending to Rise to 2.5% of GDP by 2027 as OBR Backs Increase

NHS Waiting List Falls for Third Month to 7.25 Million

The Energy Crisis Could Outlast the Iran War

Evening Briefing

What It Means For You

Geopolitical

Israel Launches ‘Broad Wave’ of Tehran Strikes; Explosion Rocks State Rally

All Six KC-135 Crew Confirmed Dead; US Death Toll Reaches 13

Israel Destroys Litani Bridge; Warns Lebanon Faces Gaza-Scale Destruction

GCC Submits UN Resolution Demanding Iran Halt Gulf Attacks

Putin Stalls on Ukraine Ceasefire; Russia Fires 559 Drones and Missiles

UK Domestic Politics

UK Economy Flatlines in January; Sterling Falls Below $1.33

Hereditary Peers Bill Clears Final Hurdle — 92 Lords to Leave After 700 Years

Government Adopts First Anti-Muslim Hostility Definition

BBC World Service Faces Funding Crisis as March Deadline Looms

Overseas Dentists Exam Places Expanded Tenfold to Tackle Access Crisis

The Gulf Monarchies Are Caught Between Iran’s Desperation and America’s Recklessness

Morning Briefing

What It Means For You

Geopolitical

Four US Crew Killed as KC-135 Tanker Crashes in Iraq

Iran Warns Oil Could Hit $200 as Three More Ships Struck

Pezeshkian Sets Three Conditions for Peace as Day 14 Begins

UNHCR: 3.2 Million Iranians Displaced; Civilian Toll Passes 1,348

Ukraine Hits Russian Electronics Plant Building Missile Parts

UK Domestic Politics

Reeves Faces Treasury Committee Grilling on Iran Oil Shock

Courts and Tribunals Bill Provokes Cross-Party Fury on Jury Trials

Crime and Policing Bill Enters Final Report Stage Debates

Inheritance Tax Relief Reforms Take Effect in Three Weeks

Defence Spending Pressure Mounts as Iran Conflict Enters Third Week

Why the Iran War May Not Trigger a Ukraine-Style Inflation Shock