Evening Briefing
What It Means For You
- Jet fuel supply at risk — the UK’s last known shipment of aviation fuel from the Middle East arrives Thursday. Airlines could face disruption by late April. If you have flights booked, check with your airline and consider travel insurance.
- Diesel breaks £100 per tank — at 182.7p per litre, filling a 55-litre family car now costs over £100 for the first time since December 2022. Use the new GOV.UK Fuel Finder to compare prices nearby.
- Energy bills fell today — but don’t celebrate yet. The April price cap saves £117 per year, but Cornwall Insight forecasts a £322 surge in July. If you can lock in a fixed deal now, it may be worth it.
GEO Geopolitical
Trump Tells Starmer and Allies “Go Get Your Own Oil”
President Trump told European allies to “build up some delayed courage, go to the Strait, and just TAKE IT,” urging nations that refused to join the war to secure their own oil supplies from the Hormuz strait. He singled out Britain, saying: “You’ll have to start learning how to fight for yourself.” US gasoline prices passed $4 per gallon for the first time since 2022. Iran struck an oil tanker off Dubai, tightening its grip on Gulf shipping.
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Pakistan and China Launch Five-Point Peace Plan for Middle East
China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Pakistan’s Deputy PM Ishaq Dar issued a joint five-point peace initiative calling for an immediate ceasefire, humanitarian access, civilian protection, maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz, and a UN-based framework for resolution. The plan calls on all parties to halt attacks on civilian infrastructure including energy, desalination and nuclear facilities.
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Iran Strikes Oil Tanker off Dubai — Gulf Shipping Under Direct Attack
An Iranian missile struck a commercial oil tanker in waters off Dubai, the first confirmed attack on merchant shipping outside the Strait of Hormuz since the war began. The vessel, carrying crude for an Asian buyer, sustained significant damage but remained afloat. Lloyd’s of London raised the Gulf war risk zone to include UAE coastal waters. Shipping insurance premiums for the entire Gulf surged to record levels.
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UK’s Last Jet Fuel Shipment from Middle East Arrives Thursday
The Libyan-flagged tanker Maetiga, carrying jet fuel from Saudi Arabia, is expected to dock in the UK on Thursday — the last known shipment of aviation fuel from the Middle East. No other vessels bound for Britain have managed to transit the Strait of Hormuz. London has imported at least half its jet fuel from the Middle East in recent months. Industry warns airlines could face disruption by late April.
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US Gasoline Passes $4 as Global Oil Crisis Deepens
Average US gasoline prices broke $4 per gallon for the first time since 2022, driven by the Hormuz closure’s removal of approximately 20 million barrels per day from global supply — the largest disruption in history according to the IEA. Brent crude climbed above $118. Goldman Sachs warned prices could reach $130 if the conflict escalates further. Trump blamed “Biden’s incompetence” for the energy infrastructure he inherited.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
COBRA Meets as UK Faces Jet Fuel Shortage Within Weeks
Starmer chaired a second COBRA session with the Chancellor, Foreign Secretary, Energy Secretary and Bank of England Governor. GBN News reported the meeting was called urgently after it emerged Britain’s last known jet fuel shipment arrives Thursday. Emergency rationing plans under the Energy Act 1976 are under active review, including a £30 fuel purchase limit and priority access for NHS, police and emergency services.
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Diesel Breaks £100 Per Tank — Drivers Pay £544m Extra Since War Began
Diesel hit 182.77p per litre, meaning a typical 55-litre family car now costs £100.52 to fill — breaching the £100 mark for the first time since December 2022. Petrol reached 152.83p. British drivers have collectively paid £544 million extra for fuel since the US-Israeli campaign began on 28 February. The RAC warned both fuels could rise a further 10p per litre by mid-April.
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Energy Price Cap Falls Today — April Reprieve Amid Gathering Storm
Ofgem’s energy price cap dropped to £1,641 from 1 April, cutting typical household bills by £117 per year. Gas fell to 5.7p/kWh and electricity to 24.7p/kWh. However, wholesale gas prices have surged 70% in March. Cornwall Insight forecasts the July cap at £1,963, adding £322. Starmer pledged “appropriate support” after the cap expires but provided no detail on the mechanism or cost.
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Fuel Finder Launched — Government Urges Drivers to Shop Around
The Government launched a new Fuel Finder tool on GOV.UK to help drivers compare petrol and diesel prices at nearby stations. The tool, which aggregates live data from UK forecourts, aims to increase price transparency and reduce profiteering. Asda, Tesco, Sainsbury’s and Morrisons all publish live prices. However, critics argued the tool addresses symptoms rather than the supply-side crisis driving prices up.
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Labour’s Poll Position Worsens as Local Elections Approach
A fresh YouGov poll puts Reform UK on 24%, Conservatives on 20%, and Labour on 16% — a new record low. Labour’s net approval rating fell to minus 42, the worst for a governing party this early in a parliament since records began. Internal party projections suggest Labour could lose control of all councils it gained in 2022. The 1 May local elections are five weeks away.
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Morning Briefing
What It Means For You
- Energy bills fall tomorrow — Ofgem’s new cap of £1,641 takes effect on 1 April, saving roughly £10 per month. Green levies are being removed from bills, potentially saving a further £150 per year. But Cornwall Insight forecasts the July cap at £1,963 — consider fixing your tariff before summer.
- Petrol easing slightly — Brent crude dropped to $108 overnight on diplomatic optimism, but the RAC still expects pump prices above 155p per litre this week. Diesel remains at 169p, adding cost to every delivery and grocery bill.
- Mortgage pressure continues — two-year fixed rates have climbed from 4.84% to 5.21% in March alone, adding roughly £115 per month on a £250,000 mortgage. If your fix expires before autumn, locking in a rate now could save hundreds.
GEO Geopolitical
Trump Threatens to Seize Kharg Island as Iran Rejects Peace Terms
President Trump told the Financial Times the US could “take the oil in Iran” and seize Kharg Island, warning he would “completely” obliterate Iran’s power plants, oil wells and export terminals if the Strait of Hormuz is not immediately reopened. Iran dismissed the 15-point US demands as “unrealistic, illogical and excessive.” Pakistan confirmed it will host direct US–Iran talks “in coming days.”
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Netanyahu Orders Expanded Invasion of Southern Lebanon
Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu instructed his military to widen the security buffer zone in southern Lebanon, with forces advancing toward the Litani River. At least 1,238 people have been killed since Lebanon entered the war on 2 March, including 124 children; over 1.2 million have been displaced. Satellite imagery reveals mounting destruction across the south.
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Iranian Strike Wounds US Personnel at Saudi Air Base
An Iranian missile strike wounded over a dozen US military personnel and damaged fighter jets at a coalition air base in Saudi Arabia. The attack marks a significant escalation in Iran’s direct targeting of American forces in the Gulf. CENTCOM confirmed it has now struck over 11,000 targets in Iran since operations began on 28 February.
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Russia Fires 289 Drones at Ukraine as Bulgaria Signs Defence Pact
Russia launched 289 drones at Ukraine overnight; air defences intercepted 267. Ukrainian forces reported 970 Russian casualties in 24 hours, bringing total losses to approximately 1.3 million since February 2022. A drone struck an apartment building in Odesa. Ukraine and Bulgaria signed a 10-year security pact committing Sofia to fund air defences and co-produce arms.
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Pope Leo XIV Condemns War in Palm Sunday Address
Pope Leo XIV rejected claims that God justifies war during Palm Sunday Mass before tens of thousands in St Peter’s Square, praying specifically for Christians in the Middle East. The pontiff’s message was widely interpreted as a rebuke of both American and Israeli military action. Vatican diplomatic channels with Tehran remain among the few active Western contacts with Iran.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Consumer Confidence Collapses to Lowest Under Starmer
The British Retail Consortium’s economic expectations index plunged to minus 53 in March from minus 30 — the lowest recorded under Starmer’s premiership and worse than during the 2022 mini-budget crisis. Households face a triple squeeze from rising energy costs, food prices and mortgage rates. The BRC warned the decline was driven by “acute anxiety over the international situation.”
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Energy Cap Falls Tomorrow but July Surge of £322 Looms
Ofgem’s reduced price cap of £1,641 takes effect on 1 April, saving households approximately £10 per month. The government is also removing green levies from bills, potentially saving a further £150 per year. However, Cornwall Insight forecasts the July cap at £1,963 — a £322 increase — as the Hormuz crisis drives wholesale gas prices 67% higher.
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Welfare Cuts Hit 3.2 Million as OBR Halves Growth Forecast
Spring Statement welfare reforms are set to affect 3.2 million people, costing an average £1,720 per year. Universal credit health benefits have been cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants until 2030; some 800,000 will lose disability payments entirely. The OBR halved its growth forecast, forcing Reeves to find £4.1 billion in savings to meet her fiscal rules.
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Defence Spending to Reach 2.5% of GDP by 2027
The government confirmed defence spending will reach 2.5 per cent of GDP by 2027 — three years ahead of the Conservative timeline — with a target of 3 per cent in the next parliament. Overseas development aid will be cut from 0.5 per cent to 0.3 per cent of GNI to fund the increase. The MoD receives an immediate £2.2 billion supplement.
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Reform Projected to Gain 2,260 Council Seats in May
Electoral projections indicate Reform UK could gain 2,260 council seats on 7 May if current polling holds. Three traditionally Conservative counties — Essex, Norfolk and Suffolk — are projected to flip to Reform. YouGov puts Labour at a record low of 16 per cent, behind Reform on 23 per cent and the Greens on 21 per cent.
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Weekly Roundup
The stories that defined this week View roundup
The Week In Numbers
- Iran’s death toll passed 1,900 including 230 children as the war entered its second month — Houthis opened a new front from Yemen, firing ballistic missiles at Israel for the first time, while the US military presence in the Gulf reached its highest level since the 2003 Iraq invasion
- Petrol broke £1.50 per litre for the first time since the 2022 energy crisis, up 17.3p in four weeks — the OECD delivered the steepest growth downgrade of any G20 nation, slashing UK forecasts from 1.2% to 0.7% and nearly doubling its inflation projection to 4.0%
- Consumer confidence collapsed to record lows as the BRC index plunged to minus 53 — Labour fell to 16% in polls, behind Reform at 23% and the Conservatives at 19%, while an estimated 500,000 marched through London against the far right and war
What Moved Forward
Two-Child Benefit Cap Abolished — 450,000 Children Lifted From Poverty
DomesticThe Universal Credit (Removal of Two Child Limit) Act takes effect on 6 April, ending the nine-year restriction that capped benefit payments at a household’s first two children. An estimated 570,000 households will gain an average of £450 per month, with the child element — worth approximately £3,650 per year per additional child — applied automatically. The government estimates 450,000 children will be lifted out of relative poverty, making it the most significant anti-poverty measure since the introduction of tax credits.
Royal Navy Authorised to Board Russian Shadow Fleet
GeopoliticalStarmer announced at the Helsinki JEF summit that UK armed forces may now interdict sanctioned Russian shadow fleet vessels in British waters, including the English Channel. The fleet of over 500 ships carries an estimated 75 per cent of Russia’s crude exports using false flags and disabled transponders. HMS Cutlass supported the French interception of MV Deyna in the Mediterranean, while patrol ships shadowed the Russian warship Boikiy and oil tanker MT General Skobelev in the Channel — the first active enforcement of the UK’s new maritime authority.
First Female Archbishop of Canterbury Installed
DomesticThe Right Reverend Sarah Mullally was enthroned as the 106th Archbishop of Canterbury on Wednesday at Canterbury Cathedral, becoming the first woman to hold the role in the Church of England’s 490-year history. Over 2,000 guests attended, including representatives from 85 Anglican provinces. The appointment marks a generational shift in the church’s leadership and follows years of debate over gender equality within the Anglican Communion.
What Stalled
Bank of England Freezes Rate Cuts as Inflation Forecast Surges
MarketsThe Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously to hold the base rate at 3.75%, abandoning what had been widely expected cuts. Governor Bailey warned the Middle East conflict constitutes a “major shock to energy supply,” with CPI inflation now forecast between 3% and 3.5%. Mortgage rates have climbed sharply, with two-year fixes rising from 4.84% to 5.28% in eleven days. The Bank effectively signalled that rate cuts are off the table until the Hormuz crisis resolves — a timeline nobody can predict.
Iran Rejects US Ceasefire Plan and Islamabad Summit
GeopoliticalTehran dismissed Washington’s 15-point ceasefire proposal as “maximalist and unreasonable” and boycotted the four-nation Islamabad summit — the first multilateral diplomatic effort since the war began. Iran issued five counterdemands including war reparations, sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, and a halt to all attacks on allied forces. Foreign Minister Araghchi warned that US troops setting foot on Iranian soil would arrive “on fire.” The gulf between positions remains vast.
UK Growth Slashed to 0.7% — Steepest Cut of Any G20 Nation
DomesticThe OECD cut the UK’s 2026 growth forecast by 0.5 percentage points to just 0.7% and nearly doubled its inflation projection to 4.0%, calling Britain the most exposed G20 economy to the Iran war’s energy price shock. Consumer confidence collapsed to record lows, with the BRC index plunging 23 points in a single month to minus 53. Retailers recorded their worst month since the first lockdown, while manufacturers face their largest cost surge since 1992.
What To Watch Next Week
Trump’s Extended Deadline — 6 April for Iran to Reopen Hormuz
GeopoliticalTrump extended the deadline for strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure to 6 April after Tehran permitted 10 oil tankers through Hormuz as a “present.” Diplomatic insiders suggest direct US–Iran talks could occur as early as Tuesday, routed through Pakistani channels. But Iran’s “toll booth” system remains in place, charging vessels an estimated £1.6 million per transit and permitting only five nations through. The deadline gives diplomacy eight days — and markets a week of uncertainty.
Energy Cap Falls Tuesday — But July Surge of £322 Looms
DomesticOfgem’s price cap drops to £1,641 from 1 April, saving typical households £117 per year. But Cornwall Insight now forecasts the July cap could surge £322 to £1,963 as the Iran war drives oil above $100 per barrel — erasing the saving and adding a net £205 over six months. With petrol already past £1.50, diesel at 177.7p, and wholesale gas up 70% in March alone, the April reprieve may prove short-lived.
Easter Recess — No Parliamentary Scrutiny During War’s Most Volatile Phase
DomesticParliament rose for a fortnight’s Easter recess on Thursday, returning 13 April. The two-week absence means no parliamentary scrutiny during the war’s most volatile phase — with the Houthi front opening, Trump’s 6 April deadline approaching, and the Islamabad diplomatic track stalling. With 52% of Britons now saying Starmer should resign and Labour in third place, the recess gives the government breathing room but denies the opposition its most powerful platform.
Evening Briefing
What It Means For You
- Energy bills drop tomorrow — Ofgem’s cap falls to £1,641, saving roughly £10 per month. But wholesale gas is up 75% since February; Cornwall Insight forecasts the July cap at £1,963. Consider fixing your tariff before summer.
- Petrol still climbing — Brent crude crossed $116 today and Houthis are threatening to close a second maritime chokepoint. The RAC expects forecourt prices above 155p per litre this week.
- Late payment reform for small businesses — new laws force large firms to pay within 60 days with mandatory 8% interest penalties. If you supply larger companies, overdue invoices totalling £23.4bn nationally should clear faster.
GEO Geopolitical
Trump Threatens to Obliterate Iran’s Oil Wells if Hormuz Deal Fails
President Trump told the Financial Times he could “take the oil in Iran” and seize Kharg Island, warning he would “completely” obliterate Iran’s power plants, oil wells and export terminals if a deal is not reached to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Pakistan’s Deputy PM Ishaq Dar confirmed Islamabad will host direct US–Iran talks “in coming days.” Iran described the US demands as “unrealistic, illogical and excessive.”
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Houthis Threaten Bab al-Mandeb Blockade as Second Chokepoint Looms
Yemen’s Houthi deputy information minister confirmed that closing the Bab al-Mandeb strait is “among our options” in the next phase, should Israel target Hodeidah or civilian infrastructure. The strait handles 4.8 million barrels of oil and 12% of global trade daily. Bloomberg warned oil markets face acute risk from dual chokepoint closure. Major shipping lines have suspended Suez Canal transits.
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European Consumer Confidence Collapses at Fastest Rate Since 2022
Eurozone consumer confidence plunged to minus 16.3 — its lowest since October 2023 — with the sharpest monthly decline since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in March 2022. Economic sentiment fell 1.6 points to 96.6 across the euro area. Consumers’ inflation expectations surged from 26.2 to 43.4. The ECB warned energy-dependent economies including Germany and Italy face technical recession.
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US Marines Arrive in Gulf as Pentagon Plans Limited Ground Operations
Some 3,500 additional US troops arrived in the Middle East aboard the USS Tripoli, bringing the regional total to its highest since the 2003 Iraq invasion. Pentagon officials confirmed planning for “weeks” of ground operations “falling short of a full-scale invasion,” including special forces raids and conventional infantry deployments. CENTCOM said it has struck over 11,000 targets in Iran since 28 February.
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Russia Launches Largest Drone Barrage as Spring Offensive Intensifies
Russia fired 948 drones at Ukraine in 24 hours — one of the largest aerial attacks since the full-scale invasion — alongside 147 combat clashes on the front line. Ukrainian forces reported 870 Russian troops killed or wounded daily. Explosions hit Taganrog overnight from Ukrainian drone strikes. A chemical plant in Samara Oblast was struck, with smoke visible from Tolyatti.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Starmer Pledges Open-Ended Energy Support as Bills Set to Surge
Following this morning’s roundtable with energy, shipping and insurance executives, the Prime Minister pledged “appropriate” support for household energy bills after the current price cap expires at the end of June. Cornwall Insight now forecasts the July cap at £1,963 — a net increase of £322 over April levels. Treasury contingency planning is understood to be “well advanced.”
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Government Unveils Strongest Late Payment Laws in G7 History
Labour introduced the toughest late payment protections in the G7, forcing large firms to pay small suppliers within 60 days. All commercial contracts will carry mandatory interest at 8% above the Bank of England base rate — a £10,000 invoice paid 60 days late automatically triggers £293 in interest and compensation. Small businesses are owed an estimated £23.4 billion in overdue payments nationally.
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Royal Navy Authorised to Seize Russian Shadow Fleet Tankers
Starmer announced at the Joint Expeditionary Force summit in Helsinki that UK armed forces will board and seize sanctioned Russian shadow fleet tankers transiting British waters. Officials estimate 75% of Russian crude exports move through this ageing, uninsured network of vessels operating under flags of convenience. Over 500 ships have been sanctioned; enforcement powers rest on the 2018 Sanctions Act.
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NHS Satisfaction Rises for First Time Since Pandemic
The King’s Fund and Nuffield Trust survey showed public dissatisfaction with the NHS fell 8 percentage points — the largest drop in nearly three decades. Waiting lists are at a three-year low, A&E four-hour performance is the best in four years, and ambulance response times the fastest in five. However, only 12% of respondents said they were satisfied with waiting times overall.
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Reform Projected to Gain 2,260 Council Seats at May Elections
Electoral projections indicate Reform UK could gain 2,260 council seats on 7 May if current polling translates into votes. Three eastern counties — Essex, Norfolk and Suffolk — are projected to flip to Reform, representing a historic realignment of traditionally Conservative strongholds. Combined, the Conservatives and Labour face a net loss of 74% of the seats they are defending.
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Morning Briefing
What It Means For You
- Energy bills fall tomorrow — Ofgem’s price cap drops 7% from 1 April, saving roughly £10 per month. But wholesale gas has surged 70% in March; the July cap could reverse the saving entirely. Consider fixing a deal before the next review.
- Petrol still climbing — Brent crude rose above $113 overnight as Houthi attacks threaten Red Sea shipping alongside the Hormuz closure. The RAC expects forecourt prices to reach 155p per litre by mid-week.
- Easter recess means no Commons scrutiny — Parliament returns 13 April. With the IRGC’s university deadline passing today and Trump’s 6 April Hormuz deadline approaching, the government faces two weeks of executive-only decision-making.
GEO Geopolitical
Trump Claims Iran Agreed to “Most of” 15-Point Demands — Tehran Denies
President Trump claimed Iran has agreed to “most of” the 15-point list of demands conveyed via Pakistan to end the war. Pakistan confirmed it will host direct US–Iran talks “in coming days,” with Foreign Minister Dar saying Pakistan “will be honoured to host and facilitate meaningful talks.” Iran continues to deny any direct negotiations are taking place, accusing Washington of “talking to itself.” CNN analysis described the war as “at a fateful fork in the road.”
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Foiled Paris Bomb Plot Linked to Iran War — Two More Suspects Arrested
French anti-terrorism authorities arrested two more suspects in connection with the foiled bomb attack outside Bank of America’s Paris headquarters on the Rue de la Boétie, near the Champs-Élysées. A 22-year-old man was arrested Saturday at 03:30 as he placed a device containing five litres of fuel and an ignition system. He told police he was recruited via Snapchat for €600. Prosecutors linked the plot to the “concretisation of the Iranian threat towards American and Israeli interests in Europe.”
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Israel Kills Three Journalists in Marked Press Car in Lebanon
An Israeli airstrike hit a clearly marked press car on the Jezzine highway in southern Lebanon on Saturday, killing journalist Ali Shoaib of Al-Manar TV, journalist Fatima Ftouni of Al-Mayadeen TV, and her brother, freelance photojournalist Mohamad Ftouni. The IDF claimed Shoaib was embedded within a Hezbollah intelligence unit but offered no evidence and did not mention the other two victims. Lebanese President Aoun called it a violation of “the most basic rules of international law.”
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Zelenskyy Signs 10-Year Defence Deals with Gulf States
President Zelenskyy completed a diplomatic tour of the Gulf, signing 10-year security agreements with Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE. The deals establish joint defence industry projects, co-production facilities and technological partnerships focused on countering missiles and drones. Ukraine has deployed anti-drone experts to all three countries. In return, Kyiv is seeking high-end air defence missiles that Gulf nations possess and that Ukraine needs to counter Russian attacks.
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CPAC Exposes Republican Rifts Over Iran as Trump Skips Event
President Trump skipped CPAC for the first time in a decade as divisions over the Iran war dominated the conservative conference in Texas. Former Congressman Matt Gaetz warned from the stage that “a ground invasion of Iran will make our country poorer and less safe.” Tucker Carlson and Megyn Kelly have become vocal critics. Trump’s approval has crashed to 36% — the lowest of his second term. Attendees expressed anxiety about surging gas prices and the risk of escalation.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Starmer Convenes Energy and Shipping Chiefs for Hormuz War Briefing
The Prime Minister convened senior government and military officials alongside energy, shipping, finance and insurance sector leaders for a roundtable in Downing Street to examine the impact of Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The session focused on fuel supply security, shipping insurance costs and the financial sector’s exposure to prolonged disruption. It follows four COBRA meetings in March as the economic fallout from the conflict intensifies.
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Energy Price Cap Drops Tomorrow — But Wholesale Surge Threatens July
Ofgem’s energy price cap falls to £1,641 from 1 April, cutting gas to 5.7p/kWh and electricity to 24.7p/kWh — saving a typical household £117 per year. However, wholesale gas prices have surged 70% in March, and Cornwall Insight now forecasts the July cap at £1,963. The Prime Minister pledged “appropriate support” to ease household bills after the cap expires at the end of June.
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Labour Launches Local Election Campaign Amid Record-Low Polling
Starmer launched Labour’s local election campaign with a focus on cost-of-living measures — the energy bill discount, the two-child benefit cap abolition, the living wage increase and pension triple lock. He argued that voting Reform risks “undermining the progress we’ve made.” Internal predictions point to significant setbacks in Wales, Scotland and English councils. YouGov puts Labour at 17%, Reform at 23%, Conservatives at 19%.
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Together Alliance March — Organisers Claim 500,000, Police Say 50,000
The Metropolitan Police estimated 50,000 attended Saturday’s Together Alliance march through central London — significantly below the 500,000 claimed by organisers. Over 300 organisations including the TUC, Unison and Amnesty International supported the march from Park Lane to Whitehall. A separate Palestine solidarity contingent converged from Exhibition Road. Police reported no major incidents.
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IRGC University Deadline Passes Today — UK Universities on Alert
The IRGC’s deadline for Washington to condemn strikes on Iranian universities expires today (30 March), with threats to expand attacks on educational institutions if no condemnation is issued. UK universities with Iranian research partnerships have been advised to review cybersecurity protocols. The Russell Group confirmed it has received guidance from the National Cyber Security Centre. Three Iranian universities have been damaged in strikes since 28 February.
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Morning Briefing
What It Means For You
- Energy bills drop from Tuesday — Ofgem’s price cap falls 7%, saving a typical household £10 per month. But wholesale prices have surged since; consider fixing before July’s expected £322 increase.
- Petrol prices heading higher — with Brent at $112 and Houthi attacks threatening Red Sea shipping, the RAC expects forecourt prices to reach 155p per litre by mid-week. Fill up this weekend.
- Universal Credit changes take effect next week — the two-child cap ends 6 April, adding roughly £450 per month per additional child. But the health element halves for new claimants; submit before 6 April to secure the higher £97 weekly rate.
GEO Geopolitical
Islamabad Peace Summit Opens — Four Nations Table Ceasefire Framework
Foreign ministers from Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt convene in Islamabad for the first multilateral diplomatic effort since the war began on 28 February. PM Sharif held a 90-minute call with Iranian President Pezeshkian. Diplomatic insiders suggest direct US–Iran talks via Rubio and Araghchi could occur as early as Tuesday. Iran has conveyed its formal response to Washington’s 15-point peace proposal.
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Houthis Open New Front as Iran War Enters Second Month
Yemen’s Houthi rebels launched two missile and drone attacks on Israel on Saturday, marking their formal entry into the conflict on Day 29. Both ballistic missiles were intercepted; falling debris injured 11 in Eshtaol. The Houthis vowed to continue strikes until attacks on Iran cease. Major container lines suspended all Suez transits within hours of the attacks.
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Iran Death Toll Nears 2,000 — IRGC Issues University Strike Deadline
The Iranian Health Ministry reports 1,937 killed since 28 February, including 230 children. The IRGC has demanded Washington condemn strikes on Iranian universities by 30 March or face expanded attacks on educational institutions. In Lebanon, 1,189 have been killed since 2 March, including 124 children. Israel killed three journalists in a targeted strike in southern Lebanon.
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Trump Considers 10,000 More Troops as Gulf Force Hits Post-2003 High
The USS Tripoli amphibious assault ship carrying 3,500 Marines has arrived in the CENTCOM area, bringing the US military presence to its highest since the 2003 Iraq invasion. More than 300 service members have been wounded and 13 killed. Trump is reportedly considering deploying up to 10,000 additional troops. Several senators have demanded a War Powers Act authorisation vote.
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Ukraine Hits Russian Oil Terminals Again; Odesa Struck Overnight
Ukrainian drones struck Ust-Luga and Primorsk oil terminals for the third time in five days, keeping oil loading suspended. Ukraine’s air defence shot down 252 of 273 Russian drones overnight; 21 penetrated. One person was killed and 12 wounded, including a nine-year-old boy, in a strike on Odesa. Russia lost 1,360 personnel in the latest daily count.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Energy Cap Drops Tuesday — But July Surge of £322 Looms
Ofgem’s price cap falls to £1,641 per year from 1 April, saving typical households £117 annually. However, Cornwall Insight warns the cap could surge £322 to £1,963 in July as the Iran war drives oil above $100 per barrel. The Government has deployed a £6.9 billion energy bill discount scheme removing green levy costs from bills for three years.
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Consumer Confidence Collapses to Record Low Under Starmer
The BRC reported consumer expectations plunged to minus 53 — the lowest ever recorded — down 23 points in a single month. The GfK index fell to minus 21. Household savings rates surged six points as families brace for higher energy bills, petrol at 150.7p per litre, and inflation forecast at 4% by the OECD.
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Hundreds of Thousands March Against Far Right and War
The Together Alliance march brought an estimated 50,000 to 500,000 through central London on Saturday. Over 300 organisations including the TUC, Unison and Amnesty International supported the march from Park Lane to Whitehall. A separate Palestine solidarity march converged from Exhibition Road. Police reported no major incidents.
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Parliament Rises for Easter Amid Acute Geopolitical Crisis
The Commons rose on Thursday and the Lords on Friday for a fortnight’s Easter recess; both return on 13 April. The Pension Schemes Bill and Crime and Policing Bill completed Lords stages. The Representation of the People Bill, lowering the voting age to 16, entered committee stage. The two-week absence means no parliamentary scrutiny during the war’s most volatile phase.
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Reform Fractures as Restore Britain Targets Local Elections
Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain will field candidates in the 1 May local elections, threatening to split the right-wing vote. Farage launched Reform’s campaign days after the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards ruled he breached disclosure rules 17 times, totalling £384,000 in undisclosed interests. YouGov puts Reform at 23%, Conservatives at 19%, Labour at 17%.
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Evening Briefing
What It Means For You
- Fill up this weekend — the RAC expects petrol to hit 155p per litre by mid-week as Houthi attacks add Red Sea disruption to the Hormuz closure. A full tank today saves roughly £5–8.
- Energy bills fall Tuesday — Ofgem’s cap drops to £1,641, saving £10 per month. But Cornwall Insight now forecasts a July surge to £1,963; fixing your tariff before summer may lock in savings.
- Food prices under pressure — the Hormuz closure has disrupted 20% of global oil shipping and rerouted cargo around the Cape of Good Hope, adding 10–14 days to deliveries and pushing up import costs.
GEO Geopolitical
Iran Rejects Islamabad Talks; Warns US Troops Will Arrive ‘on Fire’
Iran’s Foreign Ministry dismissed the four-nation Islamabad summit as “futile,” warning that American troops setting foot on Iranian soil would be “on fire as soon as they arrive.” The Pentagon is preparing weeks of limited ground operations, including raids on Kharg Island. Pakistan secured passage for 20 ships through the Strait under Iranian escort.
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IDF Completes ‘Widespread’ Tehran Strikes; Nuclear Scientist Killed
The Israel Defence Forces launched “widespread” strikes on government infrastructure “in the heart of Tehran” on Saturday, targeting ballistic missile production sites and command centres. Nuclear scientist Mohammed Reza Kia and his wife were killed in Kiashahr. The IDF says it will finish targeting nearly all key military industry sites within days. Bushehr nuclear plant was struck on Friday.
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Houthis Fire Second Missile Barrage at Israel Within 24 Hours
Yemen’s Houthi rebels fired a second salvo of ballistic missiles at Israel, targeting what they described as “sensitive military sites” in southern Israel. Both attacks were intercepted; falling debris injured 11 in Eshtaol. Analysts warn the group could impose a blockade of the Bab al-Mandeb strait, threatening 12% of global containerised trade. Major shipping lines suspended all Suez transits.
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Pope Leo XIV Condemns War in Palm Sunday Address
Pope Leo XIV rejected claims that God justifies war during a Palm Sunday Mass in St Peter’s Square, declaring “He does not listen to the prayers of those who wage war.” Cardinal Pizzaballa, the Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem, was blocked by Israeli police from the Church of the Holy Sepulchre. Leo prayed for Christians in the Middle East, Myanmar and the Congo.
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Russia Loses 8,700 Troops in One Week; Ukraine Hits Baltic Oil Terminals
Russia lost 1,360 troops in the latest daily count, bringing weekly losses above 8,700 — the highest sustained rate of the war. Ukrainian drones struck Baltic oil terminals at Ust-Luga and Primorsk for the third time in five days. Partisans sabotaged electronic warfare equipment in Novgorod Oblast, enabling strikes on an aircraft repair plant in Staraya Russa.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Energy Cap Falls Tuesday but July Surge Could Add £322
Ofgem’s price cap drops to £1,641 from Tuesday, saving typical households £117 per year. But Cornwall Insight now forecasts the July cap could surge to £1,963 — erasing the saving and adding a net £205 over six months. Wholesale gas prices are up 75% since late February. The 1.5 million homes on kerosene heating oil face the sharpest pain, with prices up 40%.
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Organisers Claim 500,000 at Largest Anti-Far-Right March in UK History
The Together Alliance confirmed its estimate of 500,000 marchers at Saturday’s demonstration through central London — which, if accurate, would be the largest anti-far-right rally in British history. Over 300 organisations including the TUC and Amnesty International backed the march. Police estimated 50,000. A Palestine solidarity march converged at Whitehall.
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Ipsos: 52% Say Starmer Should Resign as Labour Falls to Third
An Ipsos poll found 52% of Britons believe Starmer should stand down, up four percentage points from November. YouGov puts Labour at 17% — behind Reform at 23% and the Conservatives at 19%. Despite the numbers, Labour MPs increasingly expect Starmer to survive through 2027. Parliament’s prorogation from late April removes the infrastructure for organised leadership challenges.
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Pension Schemes Bill Faces Ping-Pong After Lords Strip Asset Mandate
The Lords voted 191–118 to strip the Government’s power to mandate pension fund asset allocations before the bill completed its passage on Thursday. The defeat means the Pension Schemes Bill faces ping-pong after Easter. Ministers had argued the measure was essential for channelling pension capital into UK infrastructure; peers called it an “unprecedented” overreach.
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Armed Forces Commissioner Endorsed as Defence Spending Debate Sharpens
The Defence Committee endorsed the interim appointment of Polly Miller-Perkins as Armed Forces Commissioner, the first holder of a new role designed to advocate for service personnel. The appointment comes as the Iran conflict sharpens debate over defence spending, currently at 2.3% of GDP. Senior military figures are pressing for a commitment to 2.5% by 2028.
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Evening Briefing
What It Means For You
- Fill up this weekend — Brent at $112.57 means pump prices above 150p per litre will keep climbing. Analysts expect 155p by midweek as wholesale costs feed through to forecourts.
- Mortgage rates have hit 5.51% for two-year fixes, up from 4.84% three weeks ago. If your deal expires within six months, locking in now with a free switching window is prudent — the BoE is unlikely to cut before 2027.
- Universal Credit claimants: the health element halves for new claims from April. Submitting before 6 April secures the higher £97 weekly rate; existing claimants are frozen, not cut.
GEO Geopolitical
Houthis Fire Second Missile at Israel Hours After First Strike
Yemen’s Houthi rebels fired a second ballistic missile at Israel on Saturday evening, hours after their first strike marked the group’s entry into the Iran war. The IDF intercepted both missiles, though falling debris from the first launch injured 11 people in Eshtaol. The Houthis declared they are acting in solidarity with Iran.
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Rubio Claims War Will End “in Weeks” — Tehran Rejects Timeline
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Washington expects to complete its Iran war objectives “in the next couple of weeks,” declaring Iran will be left “weaker than in recent history.” Tehran dismissed the claim, with Foreign Minister Araghchi accusing the US of refusing genuine diplomacy. The Pentagon privately acknowledged the conflict may extend past its original timeline.
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Iran Death Toll Passes 1,900 as War Enters Second Month
The Iranian Red Crescent reported at least 1,900 killed since 28 February as the conflict passed the one-month mark. Israeli strikes damaged buildings at a Tehran university overnight. In Lebanon, 1,189 have been killed since 2 March, including 124 children. Israel killed three journalists in a targeted strike in southern Lebanon.
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Islamabad Summit Tomorrow — Four Nations to Table Ceasefire Plan
Pakistan confirmed foreign ministers from Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan will meet in Islamabad on Sunday in the first multilateral diplomatic effort since the war began. US special envoy Steve Witkoff confirmed Washington has been negotiating through Pakistani channels. Turkey’s foreign minister said a monitored ceasefire framework will be proposed.
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USS Tripoli Deploys 3,500 Marines — US Gulf Force at Highest Since Iraq
The USS Tripoli amphibious assault ship arrived in the CENTCOM area on Friday carrying 3,500 Marines and sailors. The deployment brings the American military presence to its highest level since the 2003 Iraq invasion. More than 300 US service members have been wounded and 13 killed since operations began on 28 February.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Starmer Warned Britain “Not on War Footing” at Defence Grilling
MPs accused the Prime Minister of “enormous complacency” on defence during a combative Liaison Committee session. Bernard Jenkin pressed Starmer on the delayed defence investment plan, demanding to know when spending would reach 3% of GDP. Starmer snapped back that Britain suffered “years of underinvestment by the last Government” and warned the Iran war “could go on for some time.”
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NHS Records Biggest Fall in Dissatisfaction in Nearly Three Decades
The British Social Attitudes survey found NHS satisfaction rose six percentage points to 26% in 2025, the first increase since the pandemic. Dissatisfaction fell eight points — the largest single-year drop since the late 1990s. Waiting lists are at their lowest in three years and ambulance response times the fastest in five.
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UKRI Suspends Research Grants — Physics Faces 60% Budget Cuts
UK Research and Innovation suspended grant-review processes across medicine, biosciences, engineering and physical sciences. The STFC asked the particle physics and astronomy community to model cuts of up to 60%, requiring £162 million in savings by 2030. Britain has told CERN it will withdraw from a Large Hadron Collider detector upgrade.
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Universal Credit Health Element Halved for New Claimants From April
From April 2026, the health-related element of Universal Credit for new claimants falls from £97 to £50 per week. Under-22s will no longer be eligible. For 2.25 million existing recipients the payment is frozen until 2029/30. Some 730,000 new recipients face an average annual loss of £3,000; the measures save £1.9 billion by 2030/31.
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Parliament Rises for Easter After Busy Legislative Week
The Commons rose on Thursday and the Lords on Friday for a fortnight’s Easter recess; both return on 13 April. The Pension Schemes Bill and Crime and Policing Bill completed Lords stages. Commons considered amendments to the Tobacco and Vapes Bill. The Representation of the People Bill, lowering the voting age to 16, entered committee stage.
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Evening Briefing
What It Means For You
- Fill up before Monday — Brent’s 4% surge has not yet reached forecourts. The RAC expects another 3–5p per litre increase by mid-week. Diesel drivers face the sharpest hit — 180p is realistic by Easter.
- Two-child cap ends 6 April — if you have three or more children on Universal Credit, the additional £3,650 per child per year should appear automatically. Check your UC journal after 6 April to confirm.
- Review savings and mortgage deals — the OECD now forecasts UK inflation at 4.0%. If you’re approaching a fixed-rate renewal, expect lenders to reprice upwards. Cash ISA rates may rise but will lag inflation.
GEO Geopolitical
Houthis Enter the War — Two Barrages at Israel as Red Sea Shipping Suspended
Yemen’s Houthi rebels launched two barrages of ballistic missiles at Israel on Saturday, marking their formal entry on day 29. Major container lines suspended all Suez transits within hours. Combined with the Hormuz restriction, roughly 35% of global seaborne oil and 12% of containerised trade is now rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope, adding 10–14 days to Asia–Europe voyages.
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Iran Strikes Saudi Airbase — 15 US Troops Wounded, Two Aircraft Damaged
Iran fired six ballistic missiles and 29 drones at Prince Sultan Air Base outside Riyadh overnight, wounding at least 15 US service members — five seriously — and damaging two USAF KC-135 refuelling aircraft. Total US casualties since 28 February: 303 wounded, 13 killed. 2,500 Marines from the USS Tripoli have arrived, boosting the US presence to over 50,000 troops.
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IDF Nears 90% of Iran’s Military Targets — Missile Capacity Down 92%
The IDF says it has targeted roughly 70% of Iran’s military-industrial sites, expecting 90% “in the coming days.” Iran’s missile launch rates have fallen 92% since the war’s start. Overnight, an Iranian cluster missile hit eight sites across Tel Aviv, killing a 52-year-old security guard. Iran’s Red Crescent reports 1,900+ deaths; independent estimates range from 3,100 to 5,300.
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Ukraine’s Baltic Drone Campaign Spills Into NATO Territory
Ukrainian drones struck Ust-Luga and Primorsk for the third time in five days. Stray drones entered Estonian, Latvian, and Lithuanian airspace — one striking Estonia’s Auvere power station chimney, likely redirected by Russian electronic warfare. Oil loading at Ust-Luga remains suspended. The Kirishi refinery, processing 350,000 barrels per day, was also hit.
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G7 Fractures — No Communiqué for First Time on a Major Conflict
The G7 ended without a joint communiqué for the first time in the bloc’s history on a major conflict. Rubio told counterparts the war would last “two to four more weeks” with no ground troops. European ministers pressed for a ceasefire timeline. The Islamabad quadrilateral summit — Pakistan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt — begins tomorrow.
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UK UK Domestic
Hundreds of Thousands March in London Against the Far Right
The Together Alliance march brought tens of thousands to central London — organisers claim 500,000, police estimate 50,000. Over 300 organisations including the TUC, Unison, and Amnesty International supported the march from Park Lane to Whitehall. A parallel Palestine solidarity march fed in from Exhibition Road. Police reported no major incidents.
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Consumer Confidence Collapses to Record Low Under Starmer
The BRC reported consumer expectations plunged to minus 53 — the lowest ever recorded, down 23 points in a single month. The GfK index fell to minus 21. The savings rate surged 6 points as households brace for higher energy bills, petrol at 150.7p, and inflation forecast at 4% by the OECD.
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Two-Child Benefit Cap Ends 6 April — 500,000 Families to Gain
The abolition takes effect on 6 April, extending Universal Credit’s child element (£3,650 per year) to all children. An estimated 500,000 families gain an average of £450 per month. Existing UC claims update automatically. The separate benefit cap remains, meaning around 70,000 workless families may not see the full increase.
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Reform Fractures Deepen as Restore Britain Targets 1 May Elections
Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain will field candidates in the 1 May local elections. Farage launched Reform’s campaign days after the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards ruled he breached disclosure rules 17 times totalling £384,000 in undisclosed interests. YouGov puts Reform at 23%, Conservatives at 19%, Labour at 17%.
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Mandelson Phone Theft Fuels “Cover-Up” Accusations
A phone belonging to Morgan McSweeney, Starmer’s former Chief of Staff, was stolen last October — one month after Lord Mandelson was removed as US ambassador. The phone contained texts relevant to the Mandelson-Epstein investigation. The Met declined to investigate. The next batch of appointment files is expected after Easter.
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Morning Briefing
What It Means For You This Weekend
- Fill up today if you can — Brent’s 4.2% Friday surge has not yet reached forecourts. Petrol at 150.7p will climb further next week as wholesale prices feed through. Topping up today saves money versus midweek.
- Check your Universal Credit — if you have three or more children, the two-child limit ends on 6 April. Existing claims should update automatically, adding roughly £450 per month per additional child. If you don’t see the change by May, contact the UC helpline.
- Review your energy tariff before 1 April — the Ofgem price cap drops 7% from Tuesday, saving a typical household £117 per year. But this is based on pre-war wholesale prices. Consider whether fixing now protects you against autumn increases.
GEO Geopolitical
Israel Strikes Two Iranian Nuclear Sites — Tehran Vows Disproportionate Response
The IDF confirmed it bombed Iran’s Arak heavy water reactor and the Ardakan yellowcake plant in Yazd — the first direct assault on nuclear infrastructure since the war began on 28 February. Tehran says no casualties or radiation release occurred but warned retaliation would be disproportionate, with the IRGC ordering employees at sites with American or Israeli shareholders to “leave their workplaces immediately.”
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Trump’s Peace Plan Hits Wall — Quadrilateral Summit Set for 30 March in Islamabad
The US 15-point peace proposal demands nuclear dismantlement, full IAEA access and Hormuz reopening. Iran’s five counter-demands include war reparations and sovereignty over the strait. Washington has privately acknowledged the war may run past its initial 4–6 week timeline. A quadrilateral meeting in Islamabad on 30 March will be the first multilateral diplomatic effort since hostilities began.
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Houthis Enter the War — First Ballistic Missile Fired at Israel From Yemen
Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis launched their first ballistic missile at Israel since the war began, triggering air raid sirens across Beersheba and the Negev. The IDF says the missile was intercepted with no injuries. A second and third missile followed within 24 hours, with the third falling short of Israeli territory.
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Ukraine Hammers Russia’s Baltic Oil Ports for Third Time in Five Days
Ukrainian drones struck Ust-Luga and Primorsk oil terminals overnight for the third consecutive attack in five days, destroying at least one loading berth completely and damaging five storage tanks. The campaign has severed an estimated 2 million barrels per day of Russian oil exports — roughly 40% of total export revenue.
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G7 Fails to Produce Joint Communiqué as Western Divisions on Iran Deepen
G7 foreign ministers abandoned attempts to issue a comprehensive final statement at the Paris summit, exposing deep fissures between European allies pushing for de-escalation and the US keeping “multiple options on the table.” The group did agree on coordination for eventual freedom-of-navigation operations in the Strait of Hormuz.
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UK UK Domestic
OECD Confirms UK Took Largest Growth Cut of Any G20 Economy — Inflation Forecast Nearly Doubled
The OECD cut its 2026 UK growth forecast from 1.2% to 0.7% and raised its inflation projection to 4.0%, calling Britain the most exposed G20 economy to the Iran war’s energy price shock. CPI is expected to hit 3.5% as early as this month. The BoE warned of “increased risk of domestic inflationary pressures through second-round effects.”
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Petrol Climbs Past 150p as Brent Surges to $112 — Drivers Pay £11 More Per Tank
Average UK petrol hit 150.7p per litre, breaching the £1.50 mark for the first time since the 2022 energy crisis. Diesel stands at 178.2p. Over three weeks, petrol rose 10p per litre and diesel 20p, adding roughly £11 to the cost of filling a 55-litre family car. Brent crude settled at $112.57 on Friday — the highest since 2022.
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Royal Navy Shadow Fleet Interdiction Formally Authorised at Helsinki JEF Summit
Prime Minister Starmer announced at the Joint Expeditionary Force summit in Helsinki that UK Armed Forces will now interdict sanctioned Russian shadow fleet vessels in British waters. The Royal Navy has already been tracking ships to enable interdiction. Finland, Sweden and Estonia have closed critical Baltic routes, creating a Nordic-Baltic maritime cordon.
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Two-Child Benefit Cap Ends 6 April — 570,000 Households to Gain £450 a Month
The Universal Credit (Removal of Two Child Limit) Act takes effect on 6 April, extending the child element (£3,650 per year per child) to all children in a household. An estimated 570,000 households gain an average of £450 per month, with the government projecting 450,000 children lifted out of poverty this parliament.
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Reform UK Fractures as Restore Britain Registers — Musk Endorsement Shifts Dynamics
Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain formally registered with the Electoral Commission on 20 March, with Lowe defecting from Reform to sit as a Restore MP. Eight councillors — including seven from Kent — followed. Elon Musk endorsed the new party. YouGov puts Reform at 23%, Conservatives at 19%, Labour at 17%.
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Evening Briefing
What It Means For You
- Petrol at £1.50 and rising — fill up this weekend if you can. RAC data shows prices rising daily. A full 50-litre tank now costs £8.65 more than four weeks ago; budget an extra £35 per month for fuel.
- Mortgage holders: rate cuts are off the table — the BoE is stuck at 3.75% with inflation forecast to hit 4%. If you’re on a tracker or coming off a fix, prepare for rates to hold through summer at minimum.
- Two-child benefit cap ends 6 April — if you claim Universal Credit and have three or more children, you do not need to take any action. The additional £3,650 per child per year will be applied automatically.
GEO Geopolitical
Israel Bombs Iran’s Arak Nuclear Reactor as War Enters Day 28
The Israeli Air Force confirmed striking Iran’s Arak heavy water reactor on Friday afternoon, calling it “key infrastructure for producing plutonium for nuclear weapons.” The IAEA confirmed the reactor was not operational and contained no nuclear material, meaning no radiological risk — but the symbolism is seismic. Hours earlier, fragments from an Iranian ballistic missile damaged the Dan Accadia Resort in Herzliya, central Israel.
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Trump’s 15-Point Peace Plan Meets Iran’s Five Conditions — Gulf Between Positions Remains Vast
Iran is expected to deliver its formal response to Washington’s 15-point peace plan on Friday, routed through Pakistani Army Commander Asim Munir. Tehran has signalled five conditions: an end to all aggression and assassinations, concrete guarantees against future attack, war reparations, a comprehensive ceasefire across all fronts, and Iran’s “exercise of sovereignty” over the Strait of Hormuz.
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Iran’s Hormuz “Toll Booth” Tightens Grip — Only Five Nations Granted Passage
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard has formalised a “toll booth” system in the Strait of Hormuz, rerouting approved vessels along the Iranian coastline for IRGC inspection. Some ships have been charged an estimated £1.6m per transit. Only vessels from China, Russia, India, Iraq, and Pakistan are granted passage. Approximately 20,000 sailors remain trapped on their vessels, with at least seven killed in IRGC attacks on commercial shipping.
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G7 Concludes Paris Summit — Deep Divisions on Iran, Unity on Ukraine
G7 foreign ministers concluded their two-day summit outside Paris, issuing a joint statement demanding an immediate halt to attacks on civilians. Secretary of State Rubio sought allied support for Washington’s Iran strategy but met scepticism from European counterparts. On Ukraine, ministers expressed “firm support for Kyiv and US mediation efforts.”
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Ukraine Cripples 40% of Russian Oil Exports with Baltic Drone Campaign
Ukraine’s drone campaign against Russian energy infrastructure reached a critical threshold this week, with strikes on the Ust-Luga oil terminal sparking large-scale fires. Reuters calculates approximately 40% of Russia’s crude oil export capacity — around 2 million barrels per day — has been shut down. Eight people were injured in Kharkiv overnight when Russian drones struck a residential high-rise.
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UK UK Domestic
OECD Delivers Steepest Growth Downgrade of Any G20 Nation — UK Forecast Slashed to 0.7%
The OECD cut the UK’s 2026 growth forecast by 0.5 percentage points to just 0.7% — the steepest downgrade of any G20 economy — driven by surging energy prices, financial market volatility, and supply chain disruptions from the Iran war. CPI inflation is now projected at 4%, up sharply from the December forecast of 2.5%.
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Petrol Breaks £1.50 Barrier as Fuel Costs Surge 13% in Four Weeks
Petrol hit 150.11p per litre on Friday, up 17.3p in less than four weeks since the outbreak of the Iran war. Diesel has climbed to 177.68p. On 28 February, unleaded stood at just 132.83p. The RAC said further increases are expected next week as Brent crude remains above $108 per barrel.
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Royal Navy Shadow Fleet Operations Enter Active Phase
The Royal Navy’s authorisation to board suspected Russian shadow fleet vessels is now operational. Patrol ships shadowed the Russian warship Boikiy and oil tanker MT General Skobelev in the Channel, while HMS Cutlass supported the French interception of MV Deyna in the Mediterranean. Russia’s shadow fleet comprises over 1,000 ageing tankers using false flags and disabled transponders.
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Two-Child Benefit Cap Officially Abolished — 450,000 Children to Exit Poverty
The Universal Credit (Removal of Two Child Limit) Act takes effect on 6 April 2026. Families already claiming Universal Credit will see the child element — worth approximately £3,650 per year per additional child — applied automatically with no action needed. The government projects 450,000 fewer children in relative poverty by 2030/31.
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Reform UK Fractures as Councillors Defect in Both Directions
Reform UK’s local base is simultaneously growing and splintering. Two Wealden Conservative councillors defected to Reform at Farage’s local election launch. But seven councillors in Kent switched to Rupert Lowe’s breakaway Restore Britain movement, with further defections in Warwickshire and Leicestershire. A former Labour council leader also crossed to Reform.
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Morning Briefing
What It Means For You
- Mortgage holders stuck — the Bank of England’s rate freeze at 3.75% means the 1.6 million households refinancing in 2026 face higher-for-longer fixed rates. If you’re remortgaging, lock in now before autumn.
- Fuel and energy bills climbing — petrol past 150p per litre, wholesale gas up 75% since February. The July energy cap is forecast to rise £322. Budget accordingly and check if you’re on the best tariff.
- Pay transparency coming — if you work for a firm with 250+ staff, your employer will soon publish ethnicity and disability pay gaps. Check your company’s existing gender pay gap report for context.
GEO Geopolitical
Royal Navy Given Green Light to Intercept Russian Shadow Fleet in British Waters
Prime Minister Starmer has authorised UK armed forces to board, intercept and seize Russian “shadow fleet” vessels transiting British waters, including the English Channel. The fleet — more than 500 sanctioned ships carrying an estimated 75% of Russia’s crude exports — uses false flags and disabled transponders to evade Western sanctions. Nine European NATO members will coordinate enforcement through the Joint Expeditionary Force.
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Trump Extends Iran Deadline to 6 April After Tehran Permits 10 Oil Tankers Through Hormuz
President Trump revealed that Iran allowed 10 oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz as a “present” to the United States, extending his deadline for Iran to fully reopen the strait to 6 April and pausing strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure. However, Tehran has rejected Washington’s 15-point ceasefire framework and submitted its own conditions — including sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz — leaving a deal far from certain.
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Russia Launches 400-Drone Barrage at Ukraine as Spring Offensive Begins
Russia unleashed one of its most ferocious aerial bombardments in weeks, firing nearly 400 long-range drones — many Iranian-designed Shaheds — and 34 missiles, including ballistic weapons, across at least seven Ukrainian cities. Poland placed its air defences on the “highest state of readiness” and scrambled fighter jets alongside Romania as strikes neared NATO airspace.
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G7 Ministers Convene Outside Paris as Iran Rejects Trump’s 15-Point Ceasefire Plan
Foreign ministers from G7 nations gathered at Vaux-de-Cernay Abbey outside Paris for a two-day summit dominated by the Iran conflict, with France also inviting counterparts from Saudi Arabia, Brazil, India and South Korea. Tehran rejected Washington’s ceasefire proposal outright, with Foreign Minister Araghchi declaring Iran “has not engaged in talks to end the war,” while publishing a counterproposal demanding war reparations and sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz.
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EU Gas Storage Falls to Critical Lows as Hormuz Crisis Triggers 70% Price Surge
The benchmark Dutch TTF natural gas price has surged from €38 to €54 per megawatt-hour in March alone — a 70% monthly increase, the steepest since September 2021 — as the Strait of Hormuz disruption chokes global LNG supplies. EU underground gas storage stood at just 28.4% as of 24 March, five percentage points below the same date last year, with the Netherlands at a critical 6.0% and Germany at 22.3%.
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UK UK Domestic
Bank of England Freezes Rate Cuts as Middle East Conflict Pushes Inflation Forecast to 3.5%
The Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously to hold the base rate at 3.75%, abandoning what had been an expected cut to 3.50%. Governor Bailey warned that the Middle East conflict constitutes a “major shock to energy supply,” with CPI inflation now forecast between 3% and 3.5% over the coming quarters. Wholesale gas prices have risen roughly 75% since late February, and household energy bills are forecast to climb 10% from July.
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Firms With 250+ Staff Must Now Publish Ethnicity and Disability Pay Gaps
The government has confirmed that large employers will be required to publish six key pay gap metrics covering ethnicity and disability, alongside workforce composition data. The move — backed by 87% of consultation respondents — extends the existing gender pay gap reporting framework to cover race and disability for the first time. At minimum, firms must compare disabled and non-disabled workers, and white employees against all other ethnicities combined.
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Meta and YouTube Found Negligent in Landmark Social Media Addiction Verdict
A Los Angeles jury found Meta and YouTube negligent in the design of their platforms, concluding both companies deliberately built addictive features and failed to protect young users. Meta was assigned 70% responsibility. The jury awarded $6 million in damages. Both companies plan to appeal, but the bellwether verdict could influence more than 2,000 pending lawsuits.
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Two-Child Benefit Cap Abolished as Historic Anti-Poverty Law Takes Effect in April
The Universal Credit (Removal of Two Child Limit) Act takes effect on 6 April, abolishing the nine-year-old restriction that capped benefit payments at a household’s first two children. The government estimates 450,000 children will be lifted out of relative poverty — the largest single reduction since comparable records began in the 1990s — while 570,000 households will gain an average of £450 per month by 2030–31.
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One in Ten Reform Councillors Quit as Party’s First Year Brings Tax Rises and Cuts
A year after Reform UK won control of 14 local authorities and 677 council seats, an audit reveals 63 councillors — almost one in ten — have already resigned, while Reform-controlled councils have pushed through council tax increases of up to 9% despite campaigning to cut bills. The findings land six weeks before the 7 May local elections, where Reform is projected to win the most seats nationally — polls showing it at 27%, ahead of Labour on 20%.
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Evening Briefing
What It Means For You
- Fuel bills climbing fast — petrol has risen to 149.9p per litre and diesel to 176.6p. Budget an extra £10–15 per tank. The April energy cap drops to £1,641, but a £322 rise is forecast for July.
- Savings rates on hold — the Bank of England at 3.75% means mortgage rates stay elevated but savings accounts remain attractive. Lock in a fixed-rate ISA before 5 April.
- Pension check-up time — the Pension Schemes Bill could reshape your workplace pension. Check performance against benchmarks.
GEO Geopolitical
Trump Extends Iran Energy Strike Deadline to 6 April as Back-Channel Talks Intensify
The US president announced a further ten-day pause on strikes against Iran’s energy infrastructure, pushing the deadline to 6 April. Trump claimed “talks are going very well” while envoy Witkoff confirmed a 15-point framework had been transmitted to Tehran via Pakistan. Iran publicly denied any negotiations.
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Pentagon Weighs Diverting Ukraine Weapons to the Middle East
The Pentagon is considering redirecting military aid earmarked for Ukraine as the Iran campaign depletes Patriot and THAAD interceptors. Zelensky claimed US-aligned nations fired over 800 Patriots in three days, exceeding Ukraine’s total four-year stockpile.
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Russia Launches Nearly 1,000 Drones at Ukraine in One of the War’s Largest Attacks
Russia fired approximately 948 drones including a rare daytime assault of 550. NATO scrambled jets from Poland and Romania. Ukraine hit Ust-Luga, sparking fires at one of Russia’s most important oil export hubs.
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Meta and YouTube Found Liable in Landmark Youth Addiction Verdicts
A jury found Meta and YouTube liable for addictive platform design, awarding $6 million. Meta was 70% responsible. A separate New Mexico trial hit Meta with $375 million for failing to protect children. Over 2,000 similar lawsuits are pending.
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Denmark’s Inconclusive Election Triggers Coalition Talks
Frederiksen was named formateur after her Social Democrats won 38 seats but fell short of a majority. Rasmussen’s centrist Moderates (14 seats) are kingmaker. The 21.9% vote share was the Social Democrats’ worst since 1903.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Consumer Confidence Collapses to Record Low as Iran Conflict Fuels Fears
The BRC’s economic expectations hit minus 53 — the worst since records began. Personal finance expectations fell to minus 17. CNBC described a coming “brutal” inflation surge with ING forecasting CPI could peak at 4% in autumn.
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Government Bans Crypto Donations to Political Parties
Starmer announced an immediate moratorium following the Rycroft Review. Reform UK MPs walked out. The ban will be embedded in the Representation of the People Bill.
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North Sea Drilling Row Splits Cabinet
Starmer deferred to Miliband as Reeves pushed for new licences. Petrol prices have surged past 149p amid Hormuz disruption. Industry groups estimate 75,000 jobs from expedited licensing.
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Kent Meningitis Passes Peak — 20 Cases, Two Deaths
No new infections reported on 26 March. Over 10,500 antibiotic doses administered. The WHO issued a situation report. The strain is not fully covered by the current Bexsero vaccine.
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Pension Schemes Bill Heads to Final Stage as Lords Rebel
Lords voted 191–118 to remove the government’s power to mandate pension asset allocations. The Bill awaits Third Reading on Friday before Easter recess.
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Morning Briefing
What It Means For You
- Petrol prices may ease — Brent crude fell below $97 overnight as Iran’s partial Hormuz reopening continues. If oil stays below $100, expect 3–5p per litre off pump prices by mid-April, though the two-week lag means no immediate relief at the forecourt.
- Mortgage rates stuck through summer — the Bank of England’s hold at 3.75% and rising inflation expectations mean two-year fixes remain above 5.2%. If you are remortgaging, lock in before the war-driven energy shock feeds through to CPI.
- Consumer confidence at record low — the BRC index plunged to minus 53, the worst since records began. Retailers are warning of further price rises from April as employer National Insurance increases and energy costs cascade through supply chains.
GEO Geopolitical
Day 27: Iran Fires Fresh Missile Salvos at Central Israel
Iran resumed missile attacks on central Israel after a 14-hour lull, injuring two people in Kfar Qasim with cluster bomb impacts. Sirens sounded across the Dan metropolitan area. The strikes confirm Tehran retains significant offensive capability despite nearly four weeks of sustained US-Israeli bombardment.
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Tehran Rejects US Ceasefire Plan as “Maximalist”
Iran dismissed Washington’s 15-point peace proposal, delivered via Pakistan, as “maximalist and unreasonable.” Foreign Minister Araghchi said message exchanges “do not mean negotiations.” Tehran issued five counterdemands including war reparations, Hormuz sovereignty and a halt to all strikes on allied forces in Lebanon and Iraq.
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Russia Unleashes Record 9,414-Drone Barrage on Ukraine
Russian forces fired 9,414 drones and conducted 158 combat engagements in 24 hours — the heaviest aerial assault of the entire war. Ukraine destroyed 2,038 unmanned vehicles. Russia lost 1,210 soldiers, bringing total casualties since February 2022 to approximately 1,292,170. An early-morning strike hit infrastructure in Kryvyi Rih.
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Saudi Arabia Intercepts 28 Drones and Ballistic Missile
Saudi Arabia shot down 28 drones and a ballistic missile targeting its Eastern Region, home to the Abqaiq and Ras Tanura oil processing facilities. Gulf air defences are at their highest alert since the conflict began. The attack followed IRGC threats to strike energy infrastructure across Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE.
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Starmer Warns of “War on Two Fronts” at Helsinki Summit
The Prime Minister told JEF leaders in Helsinki that Western nations confront simultaneous threats from the Iran conflict and Russian aggression. President Zelenskyy and Canadian PM Carney joined remotely. The summit of ten northern European defence partners focused on coordinating Ukraine support and countering Russian maritime threats in the Baltic.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Consumer Confidence Collapses to Lowest Under Starmer
The BRC’s measure of economic expectations plunged to minus 53 in March from minus 30 in February — the worst reading since the tracker began in 2024. Personal finance expectations hit a record low of minus 17. The collapse is driven by fears of surging inflation as the Iran conflict pushes energy costs sharply higher.
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Government Blocks £1.5bn Chinese Wind Factory Over Security
Ministers blocked Ming Yang’s plans for a wind turbine factory at Ardersier Port in the Scottish Highlands, citing national security. The facility would have created 1,500 jobs. Concerns centred on Chinese technology in critical energy infrastructure, intensified by the alleged spy scandal involving Scottish Labour MP Joani Reid’s husband.
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British Forces Authorised to Board Russian Shadow Fleet
Starmer announced that British military personnel may interdict sanctioned Russian shadow fleet vessels transiting UK waters. The legal framework, identified in January, permits boarding and inspection. Around 75 per cent of Russia’s crude oil is transported by the shadow fleet; the UK has sanctioned 544 such vessels alongside allies.
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Parliament Rises for Easter as Defence Plan Row Intensifies
The House of Commons rises today for Easter recess, returning on 13 April. The break follows a bruising Liaison Committee session where Bernard Jenkin accused Starmer of “enormous complacency” on defence. The Prime Minister snapped back at 14 years of Conservative underinvestment. The defence investment plan remains unpublished.
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New Visa Rules Bar Afghan and Sudanese Nationals From Today
Immigration restrictions taking effect today bar nationals from Afghanistan and Sudan from applying for student and skilled worker visas. The measures form part of the Government’s earned settlement reforms, delayed to autumn after a 100-MP Labour revolt. The Home Affairs Committee warned the ban risks “unintended consequences” for NHS staffing.
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Evening Briefing
What It Means For You
- Petrol prices may ease — Brent crude fell below $100 for the first time since mid-March as Iran partially reopened the Strait of Hormuz. Forecourt prices typically lag by 7–10 days; if oil stays below $100, expect 3–5p per litre off pump prices by early April.
- Mortgage rates remain elevated — the Bank of England’s rate hold at 3.75% means two-year fixes remain above 5.2%. If you are remortgaging before summer, locking in now avoids further rises should inflation spike as expected.
- Kent meningitis alert — if you have a child at the University of Kent or in Canterbury, contact the university health service about the targeted vaccination programme. Over 9,300 jabs have been administered; two students have died.
Prime Minister’s Questions Wednesday 25 March 2026
Badenoch Opens on North Sea Energy
Kemi Badenoch chose energy security as her line of attack, demanding Starmer explain why the government refuses to grant new drilling licences for the Jackdaw and Rosebank North Sea fields. “While families are paying record prices at the pump, the Prime Minister is blocking British energy,” she said to loud cheers from the Conservative benches. Starmer accused her of “opportunism,” noting the Court of Session had ruled the original licences unlawful. Badenoch shot back: “He’s hiding behind Ed Miliband and the courts.”
Starmer Pivots to Iran: “I Stuck to My Principles”
In the second half, Starmer seized the initiative on foreign policy, declaring “I stuck to my principles not to join this war” and attacking what he called “Badenoch’s Iran amnesia.” He accused the Conservatives of having supported US military action without conditions during the early days of the conflict. Badenoch appeared wrong-footed, offering no direct rebuttal on Iran. The New Statesman gave this exchange decisively to the Prime Minister.
Davey Backs Starmer on Drilling Licences
In a rare moment of cross-party agreement, Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey stood to support Starmer: “As a former energy secretary who himself granted oil and gas licences, the Prime Minister is actually right and the leader of the opposition is wrong. The law is clear and I believe in the rule of law.” The intervention drew a mix of cheers and groans. Badenoch dismissed it as “a coalition of the unwilling.”
Farage Attacks on Small Boats: “Smash the Gangs Has Failed”
Nigel Farage rose to challenge Starmer on Channel crossings, delivering a sustained attack: “Smash the gangs, that is what the Prime Minister promised us. Trust me, I will stop the boats from coming. But 70,000 later and 1,000 in the last week, and too many young men that pose a threat to national security — is it not time to admit smash the gangs has been a total abject failure?” He accused Starmer of presiding over “a collapse in border security” as Labour backbenchers jeered.
Starmer Brands Farage “Absolute Disgrace”; All Eight Reform MPs Walk Out
Starmer responded with the session’s most explosive moment: “This is from the man and the party that voted against giving law enforcement counter-terrorism style powers to tackle it. He wants the grievance — he doesn’t want it sorted.” He called Farage an “absolute disgrace,” attacked his “screeching U-turn” on Iran and noted a Reform-run council raised council tax by 9 per cent. All eight Reform MPs stood and walked out. Labour’s Emily Darlington called “bye” as they left, drawing laughter. Starmer quipped they were “absolutely snookered.”
Cross-Party Reaction: Walkout Branded “Absolutely Pathetic”
Conservative MP Ben Obese-Jecty called the walkout “absolutely pathetic” and “obviously pre-rehearsed,” describing it as reflective of Reform’s “thin-skinned demeanour.” Reform Deputy Leader Richard Tice told GB News afterwards: “We’re furious! It’s ridiculous! This is becoming a farce.” The walkout dominated post-PMQs coverage, overshadowing the substantive energy and Iran exchanges that preceded it.
GEO Geopolitical
Iran Rejects US Ceasefire Plan, Issues Five-Point Counterproposal
Iran dismissed the US 15-point ceasefire proposal delivered via Pakistan, with an official telling Press TV: “Iran will end the war when it decides to do so.” Tehran issued a five-point counterproposal demanding a halt to all US and Israeli attacks, war reparations, and international recognition of Iran’s authority over the Strait of Hormuz.
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Oil Crashes Below $100 as Iran Opens Hormuz to “Non-Hostile” Ships
Iran’s UN mission announced that “non-hostile” vessels may transit the Strait of Hormuz, the first easing of the blockade since 28 February. Brent crude crashed 6% in morning trading to $99.16 before recovering to $101.47. Only five vessels transited on Monday, compared with 120 per day before the conflict.
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Iranian Drones Strike Kuwait Airport; 82nd Airborne Deploys
Iranian drones struck a fuel tank at Kuwait International Airport, sparking a major fire. The Kuwait National Guard intercepted six drones. Separately, the Pentagon confirmed 2,000–3,000 troops from the 82nd Airborne Division, under Maj. Gen. Tegtmeier, are deploying to the region — supplementing approximately 50,000 US forces already in theatre.
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Russia Launches 948 Drones in Largest Assault; Spring Offensive Begins
Russia fired 948 drones in a 24-hour barrage — the largest single aerial assault since the full-scale invasion — alongside ground movements signalling the start of its spring offensive. Seven people were killed and 55 injured. Part of the UNESCO-listed area around Lviv’s St Andrew’s Church was damaged.
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Danish PM Frederiksen Resigns After Worst Result Since 1903
Mette Frederiksen submitted her government’s resignation after her Social Democrats won just 38 seats in the 179-seat parliament — the party’s worst showing since 1903. The left-leaning “red bloc” secured 84 seats, six short of a majority. Coalition talks with the Moderates could still return Frederiksen for a third term.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
All Eight Reform MPs Walk Out of PMQs After Farage Clash
Nigel Farage and all eight Reform UK MPs staged a dramatic walkout from the Commons after Starmer branded Farage an “absolute disgrace” over his U-turn on the Iran war. Conservative MP Ben Obese-Jecty called the stunt “absolutely pathetic” and “pre-rehearsed.” The session had earlier seen Badenoch dominate on North Sea drilling licences.
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UK Inflation Holds at 3.0% — Last Clean Print Before War Impact
CPI rose 3.0% in the 12 months to February, unchanged from January. Core inflation edged up to 3.2%; services inflation slowed to 4.3%, the lowest since March 2022. This is the final reading before the Iran war energy shock feeds through — analysts expect sharp rises from April onwards.
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Kent Meningitis Outbreak Kills Two; 23 Cases Confirmed
An outbreak of meningitis B centred on the University of Kent in Canterbury has killed two young people, including 18-year-old Juliette Kenny, with 23 confirmed cases. Health Secretary Wes Streeting described it as “unprecedented” and announced a targeted vaccination programme for 5,000 students. Over 9,300 vaccines have been administered.
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Court of Appeal Upholds VAT on Private School Fees
The Court of Appeal dismissed a human rights challenge against the government’s 20 per cent VAT on private school fees, brought by Charedi Jewish parents and evangelical Christian schools. The court found “no general prohibition on taxing education.” The claimants plan to seek permission to appeal to the Supreme Court.
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Retail Records Worst Month Since April 2020; Costs Surge
British retailers recorded their worst month since the first lockdown, with sharp sales declines and no recovery signals. Manufacturers face their largest monthly cost surge since 1992, driven by Middle East energy prices. Enterprise Foods entered administration with £5 million in debts, affecting 250 suppliers.
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Morning Briefing
What It Means For You
- Fuel costs keep climbing — petrol has reached 149.5p per litre, up 14p in a month. Diesel at 175.6p. Filling a 55-litre family car now costs roughly £82, about £7.70 more than four weeks ago. Fill up sooner rather than later.
- Mortgage rates are rising sharply — two-year fixes jumped from 4.84% to 5.28% in just eleven days, adding roughly £55 per month on a £200,000 mortgage. If you are remortgaging this year, lock in rates now before further increases.
- Energy bills will fall to £1,641 from April, but Ofgem’s cap is forecast to surge 20% to £1,973 in July — a £332 jump. Consider fixing your tariff before wholesale rises feed through to retail offers.
GEO Geopolitical
Day 26: Pentagon Orders 82nd Airborne to Middle East
The Pentagon has ordered Maj. Gen. Brandon Tegtmeier and his headquarters staff to deploy to the Middle East, with up to 3,000 paratroopers on standby. Kharg Island, handling 90 per cent of Iran’s crude exports, is identified as the likeliest target for an airborne assault. No final order has been issued.
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Trump Claims Iran Talks Under Way; Tehran Flatly Denies
President Trump said Vice-President Vance, Secretary Rubio and envoys Witkoff and Kushner were engaged in discussions with Tehran. Iran rejected the claims outright, accusing Washington of “buying time.” Trump ordered a five-day postponement of planned strikes on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure.
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Russia Launches Spring Offensive With 400-Drone Barrage
Russia fired nearly 400 long-range drones at seven Ukrainian cities on 24 March, signalling the start of its spring-summer offensive. Ground assaults intensified around Lyman in Donetsk, where 500 Russian troops mounted a seven-pronged attack using 30 armoured vehicles. Ukrainian forces report all attacks were repelled.
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Strait of Hormuz Crisis Chokes Global Energy Supplies
The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to Western-allied shipping on Day 26. Around 200 tankers are stranded, and global oil supply has been cut by an estimated 10 million barrels per day — the largest disruption in history. Iran is selectively permitting transit for Chinese, Indian and Japanese vessels.
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NATO Agrees Unprecedented 5% Defence Spending Target
NATO member states agreed at The Hague summit to a new defence investment target of 5 per cent of GDP, with an interim commitment of 3.5 per cent by 2035. Germany has committed to reaching 3.2 per cent by 2029, budgeting €117.2 billion for defence in 2026. Poland leads allies at 4.48 per cent.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Crime and Policing Bill Clears Lords Third Reading
The Crime and Policing Bill completed its third reading in the House of Lords, clearing upper chamber scrutiny of the government’s flagship criminal justice legislation. The bill tackles anti-social behaviour, knife crime, violence against women, retail theft and child sexual abuse. It returns to the Commons for consideration of Lords amendments.
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Starmer Chairs COBR as Iran Conflict Drives Energy Surge
The Prime Minister chaired a COBR meeting on the domestic economic impact of the Iran conflict, attended by Chancellor Reeves and Bank of England Governor Bailey. Wholesale gas prices have risen approximately 75 per cent since late February; petrol climbed 14p per litre and diesel surged 29p per litre in under a month.
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English Devolution Bill Enters Lords Report Stage
The English Devolution and Community Empowerment Bill began its report stage in the House of Lords this week, with debate continuing on 25 March. The legislation transfers powers from Westminster to combined authorities and local councils across England, covering planning, transport, skills and economic development.
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Votes at 16 Bill Advances Through Commons Committee
The Representation of the People Bill continued its committee stage scrutiny. The bill’s core measures include lowering the voting age to 16 for all UK elections, extending voter registration to 14-year-olds and clamping down on foreign interference. Approximately 1.7 million young people would become newly eligible to vote.
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Bank of England Holds Rate at 3.75% as War Clouds Outlook
The Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously to maintain the base rate at 3.75 per cent, pausing rate cuts widely anticipated before the Middle East conflict escalated. Mortgage rates have risen sharply, with two-year fixes climbing from 4.84 per cent to 5.28 per cent in just eleven days.
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Evening Briefing
What It Means For You
- Oil is climbing back — Brent surged above $102 today, reversing Monday’s relief rally. Petrol prices are unlikely to fall this week; diesel may push past 170p per litre. Don’t count on the Trump “pause” holding — fill up sooner rather than later.
- Today’s PMI data signals the services sector is weakening fast. If you work in hospitality, retail or any discretionary-spending sector, prepare for a tougher spring — employers are already cutting hours and pausing recruitment.
- The £53 million heating oil fund targets rural households not covered by the energy price cap. If you heat with oil (not mains gas), check eligibility at gov.uk — Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales and rural England qualify.
GEO Geopolitical
Day 25: Trump Claims Iran Offered a “Significant Prize” — Tehran Denies Any Contact
President Trump claimed Iran had offered “a very significant prize” related to the Strait of Hormuz, but refused to specify what it was. Tehran categorically denied any contact, accusing Washington of “trying to buy time.” Israel carried out a large wave of airstrikes on central Tehran, while Iran fired multiple missile barrages at Tel Aviv, damaging a multi-storey apartment building. Over 1,000 additional troops from the 82nd Airborne have been deployed to the region.
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Trump’s Approval Crashes to 36% as Americans Turn Against Iran War
A Reuters/Ipsos poll shows President Trump’s approval rating has plunged to 36% — the lowest of his second term — driven by surging fuel prices and growing public opposition to the war. Just 25% approved of his handling of the cost of living. The four-point drop in a single week is one of the sharpest declines for any modern US president.
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German President Calls Iran War a “Disastrous Mistake” in Sharpest European Rebuke
President Steinmeier delivered an extraordinary public rebuke, calling the war “politically disastrous” and a breach of international law. He said Trump’s second term had caused a rupture in transatlantic relations “as profound as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,” adding that there would be “no going back.” He called on Germany to reduce its “excessive dependencies” on the United States.
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Israel Strikes Lebanese Christian Town in Significant Expansion of Conflict
Israeli forces struck Sahel Alma, a predominantly Maronite Christian town north of Beirut, for the first time — a significant geographic expansion of the parallel Israel-Hezbollah conflict. Separately, Israel killed three people in strikes on Beirut itself. The war in Lebanon has now killed over 100 children, according to Lebanon’s health ministry.
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Colombian Military Plane Crash Kills at Least 66 Soldiers
A Colombian Air Force C-130H Hercules carrying 128 people crashed shortly after takeoff from Puerto Leguizámo in southwestern Colombia, near the Ecuador and Peru borders. At least 66 were killed and 58 survived. The military has ruled out hostile action, citing a mechanical failure. It is the second-deadliest crash in Colombian Air Force history.
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UK UK Domestic
Counter-Terror Police Probe Iran-Linked Group After Golders Green Arson
Four ambulances belonging to Hatzola, a Jewish volunteer medical service, were set ablaze outside Machzike Hadath Synagogue in Golders Green. Counter-terrorism officers are leading the investigation after an Islamist group with alleged Iranian links, Harakat Ashab al-Yamin al-Islamia, claimed responsibility. A public fundraising appeal surpassed £1 million within 24 hours. The Community Security Trust recorded a 500% increase in antisemitic incidents since the war began.
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UK Economy Stalls as Flash PMI Slumps to Six-Month Low
The S&P Global UK Composite PMI fell sharply from 53.7 to 51.0, with services particularly hard-hit at 51.2 versus 53.0 expected. Input price inflation surged to its highest in over three years, with manufacturing cost pressures accelerating at the fastest pace since 1992. Companies directly blamed lost business on the Middle East conflict.
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Matt Brittin Named as Next BBC Director-General
The BBC Board has approved the appointment of Matt Brittin, 57, the former president of Google for Europe, the Middle East and Africa, as the next director-general. He succeeds Tim Davie and becomes the first technology executive ever to lead the 103-year-old public broadcaster. Rhodri Talfan Davies will act as interim DG during the transition.
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Davey Declares “Two-Horse Race” as Lib Dems Launch Local Election Bid
Sir Ed Davey launched the Lib Dem local election campaign in Surrey, declaring a “two-horse race” with the Conservatives and targeting traditional Tory seats in southern England. He dismissed the Greens as “dangerous” and appealed to centrist voters, positioning his party as the pragmatic opposition focused on “potholes, police officers and GP appointments.” Local elections are on 7 May.
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Government Announces £53m Heating Oil Fund and Toughest Late Payment Crackdown in 25 Years
Starmer announced £53 million in emergency support for vulnerable households struggling with soaring heating oil costs, targeting the 1.5 million rural homes not covered by the energy price cap. Separately, ministers unveiled a mandatory 60-day payment window for large firms paying smaller suppliers, backed by statutory interest at 8% above base rate and multimillion-pound fines.
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Morning Briefing
What It Means For You
- Petrol prices remain elevated at roughly 155p per litre; diesel at 168p. Trump’s five-day postponement eased oil below $100, but Brent could spike again if talks collapse — fill up while prices are marginally lower.
- Mortgage rates continue to climb as gilt yields hold near 5%. The average two-year fix is now 5.25%, adding approximately £120 per month on a £250,000 mortgage compared with January rates. Remortgage offers are being withdrawn daily.
- Reeves’s new anti-profiteering framework gives the CMA powers to investigate fuel and food retailers exploiting the crisis — report suspected price gouging via the CMA consumer hotline.
GEO Geopolitical
Day 25: “Unprecedented” Israeli Strikes Devastate Eastern Tehran
Israel launched two waves of strikes on Tehran overnight, targeting IRGC headquarters and weapons manufacturing sites in what correspondents called “unprecedented” attacks. Over 80,000 civilian buildings have been damaged across Iran since the war began; at least 1,047 civilians, including 214 children, have been killed.
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Iran Denies Trump’s “Productive Talks” Claim as Five-Day Pause Begins
President Trump postponed strikes on Iranian power plants for five days, citing “good and productive conversations.” Tehran categorically denies any dialogue, with state media accusing Trump of “retreating out of fear.” The Pentagon has paused targeting of energy infrastructure but conventional strikes continue unabated.
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Iran Attacks All Six GCC States in Historic First
For the first time, Iran struck targets across all six Gulf Cooperation Council states — Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE — in overnight missile and drone salvoes. The attacks represent a dramatic widening of the conflict beyond Israel and US forces. Damage assessments are continuing.
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Asian Markets Rally on Trump Pause; Oil Falls Below $100
Asian equities surged overnight — the Nikkei gained 0.9 per cent, the Hang Seng 1.4 per cent, and South Korea’s Kospi 1.1 per cent. Brent crude fell below $100 for the first time in two weeks. S&P 500 futures edged down 0.6 per cent as the initial euphoria faded on Iran’s denial of talks.
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Russia Strikes Ukrainian Energy Grid Across Nine Regions
Russian forces hit energy infrastructure in Odessa with Geranium drones and struck targets across nine Ukrainian regions overnight, causing power outages in the south. Moldova’s power link to Ukraine was severed. Ukraine destroyed 86 drones in response; total Russian casualties have reached an estimated 1.29 million.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Starmer Chairs COBRA on Economic Fallout; Plans for “Some Time”
The Prime Minister chaired an emergency COBRA meeting yesterday with the Governor of the Bank of England, the Chancellor and the Energy Secretary to address the war’s economic impact. Starmer warned the Government must plan for the conflict to continue “for some time” and pledged to use “every lever available.”
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Reeves Unveils Anti-Profiteering Framework to Combat Price Gouging
The Chancellor announced a new anti-profiteering framework giving the CMA “time-limited, targeted powers” to investigate companies exploiting the crisis. Lord Richard Walker, the Government’s cost-of-living tsar, recommended a temporary profit cap on energy and petrol retailers to prevent windfall gains.
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Gilt Yields Hold Near 5% as Fiscal Headroom Evaporates
The UK 10-year gilt yield remains near 4.94 per cent, its highest level since July 2008, after briefly breaching 5 per cent on Monday. Government borrowing costs have risen 68 basis points in three weeks, erasing Rachel Reeves’s £9.9 billion fiscal headroom and raising the spectre of emergency spending cuts.
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Labour Falls to Record Low of 16% as Greens Surge
A YouGov poll puts Reform UK on 23 per cent, the Greens on 21 per cent, and Labour on just 16 per cent — its lowest ever recorded. The Green Party gained 15,000 members in a single week following its Gorton and Denton by-election victory, with opposition to UK involvement in the Iran conflict driving support.
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Commons Enters Final Week Before Easter Recess
Parliament sits for its last week before the Easter break, with Lords amendments to the Tobacco and Vapes Bill, the National Insurance Bill and the Victims and Courts Bill all on the agenda. Both Houses rise by Friday 27 March and return on 13 April. A debate on Northern Ireland is scheduled for Monday.