Evening Briefing
What It Means For You
- Tax & Bills: Andy Burnham ruled out tax rises at the autumn Budget and stepped back from his hint that he might unfreeze the £12,570 personal allowance, insisting his cost-of-living measures are “fully funded” by cuts elsewhere. Scrapping the digital ID scheme will pay the £850m cost of removing VAT from electricity bills from October.
- Petrol & Energy: Brent crude jumped to a six-week high above $93 a barrel — spiking towards $95 during the session — as President Trump threatened to bomb an Iranian bridge or power plant for every ship attacked in the Strait of Hormuz. Pump and energy costs will keep rising while both the Gulf and Red Sea routes are threatened.
- Savings & Markets: The FTSE 100 closed at a five-month high on the softer inflation figures and a commodities rally, and gold hit a record. But ten-year gilt yields stayed pinned near 5 per cent, the market’s cautious verdict on the new government’s spending.
GEO Geopolitical
Trump Vows to Bomb a Bridge or Power Plant for Every Ship Hit
President Trump unveiled a stark new retaliation doctrine, declaring that the United States would “bomb and destroy one bridge or power plant” — including targets in or beside Tehran — every time Iran fires on a ship in the Strait of Hormuz. The threat followed an eleventh straight night of US strikes and came alongside a renewed vow to hit the fortified “Pickaxe Mountain” nuclear site near Natanz. Iran’s military warned any such attack would trigger a “powerful assault”.
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Oil Hits a Six-Week High as War Chokes Two Sea Routes
Brent crude surged to a six-week high, jumping as much as 4 per cent to around $93 a barrel and spiking towards $95 during the session, as Washington talked down peace prospects and traders confronted a “dual-strait” threat. Iranian attacks have throttled the Strait of Hormuz to a trickle, while a fresh Houthi blockade menaces the Bab el-Mandeb, forcing tankers of Saudi crude bound for Asia to turn back towards Suez. US pump prices ticked up above $4 a gallon.
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Iran Strikes Back Across the Gulf as Rubio Warns Asia on Hormuz
Iran fired a missile at a Jordanian city near Israel and triggered alerts in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, retaliating for the latest American bombardment; Tehran’s health ministry says US strikes have now killed 53 people over eleven days. In Manila, the US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, told Southeast Asian ministers that letting Iran control and tax the Strait of Hormuz would set a “very dangerous precedent”, and held a rare sideline meeting with China’s foreign minister.
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Ukraine Turns Its Drones on Southern Russia’s Oil and Supply Lines
Ukrainian long-range drones struck warehouses, an oil depot and Russia’s biggest online retailer deep inside Krasnodar and Stavropol, injuring at least eight and killing one. President Zelensky confirmed the raids and said thirteen Russian “shadow fleet” vessels had been hit in the Black and Azov seas over 48 hours, part of a campaign Kyiv says is designed to drag Moscow back to the negotiating table.
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Flash Floods Kill 23 and Leave 100 Missing in Afghanistan
Flash floods that tore through Afghanistan’s remote Nuristan province have killed at least 23 people and left more than 100 missing, with rescue crews digging through mud and rubble for a second day. Some 80 people were injured and buildings collapsed when the waters struck; the toll is expected to climb as teams reach cut-off villages, and forecasters warn of further flooding across ten provinces.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Burnham Rules Out Budget Tax Rises and Cools Allowance Talk
The Prime Minister ruled out tax rises at the autumn Budget and stepped back from his own hint that he might unfreeze the £12,570 personal allowance, insisting his cost-of-living measures are “fully funded” by reprioritising existing budgets. “We’ll take decisions on tax at the Budget. This is about reprioritising in this phase,” Mr Burnham said on a walkabout in Bath, hours after unveiling the £2 bus-fare cap.
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Burnham Axes Starmer’s Digital ID Scheme to Fund Cheaper Bills
Downing Street confirmed that the £850m cost of scrapping VAT on household electricity from October will be met by cancelling Sir Keir Starmer’s flagship digital ID programme. It is the first concrete casualty of Mr Burnham’s cost-of-living reprioritisation, killing off one of his predecessor’s signature reforms to bankroll a tax cut worth about £45 per household.
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Burnham Orders Early-Release Review After Harper Killers Outcry
The Prime Minister ordered his new Justice Secretary to review Labour’s prison early-release policy after fury that two of PC Andrew Harper’s killers could walk free halfway through their sentences. Mr Burnham said the ringleader would not qualify but stopped short of guaranteeing the others would serve full terms, promising to examine “every single part” of the scheme before it takes effect in September.
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FTSE Hits a Five-Month High as Gilts Stay Pinned Near 5 Per Cent
London’s blue-chip index closed at its highest since February, powered by miners and oil majors, even as the government-bond market kept the new administration on a short leash. The FTSE 100 finished at 10,716.97, up 1.24 per cent, and gold hit a record. But ten-year gilt yields held near 5 per cent, still the highest in the G7, and sterling slipped below $1.34 despite the softer June inflation figures.
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Burnham Courts Scotland and Wales as Sarwar Heads to the Lords
The new Prime Minister opened a charm offensive with the devolved nations, winning cautious goodwill from the Scottish and Welsh first ministers, who said he seemed readier to listen than Sir Keir Starmer. In a linked move, the Scottish Labour leader, Anas Sarwar, is standing down to take a peerage and a ministerial post, reshaping the party’s leadership north of the border less than a year before the Holyrood election.
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Morning Briefing
What It Means For You
- Cheaper Buses & Bills: Single bus fares in England will be capped at £2 from January, down from £3, in Andy Burnham’s second cost-of-living measure in two days after scrapping VAT on electricity. Inflation has also fallen to 2.6 per cent, a 15-month low, largely on cheaper petrol and diesel.
- Petrol & Energy: The relief may be brief: Brent crude has climbed towards $93 a barrel, its highest in five weeks, as an eleventh night of US strikes on Iran and a Houthi blockade of Red Sea shipping keep the pressure on. Forecasters expect inflation to climb back towards 3.4 per cent by November.
- Savings & Markets: Ten-year gilt yields are holding near a two-month high around 5 per cent and the pound has slipped below $1.34, as investors question how the giveaways will be funded before the autumn Budget. Economists warn tax rises may follow. Gold hit a fresh record.
GEO Geopolitical
US Bombs Iran for an Eleventh Night as Trump Threatens Natanz
American forces struck Iran for an eleventh consecutive night, with air defences firing over Tehran and blasts reported near Bushehr, Tabriz and Chabahar. US Central Command said the barrage was designed to keep degrading Iran’s ability to threaten Hormuz shipping. President Trump threatened to hit a suspected underground enrichment site near Natanz, known as “Pickaxe Mountain”, warning: “We’ll be hitting that area pretty soon, and very heavily.” The American military death toll has reached eighteen.
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Rubio Says Iran Is “Not Serious” About Talks as Strikes Go On
The US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, said Tehran was “not serious” about negotiations as the two sides traded an eleventh night of fire, with a mediator-tabled ten-day ceasefire still unaccepted. Washington is holding out for a longer pause and a guarantee of safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz first. A US official said the strikes would continue until the President decided otherwise, “but talks between our countries are continuing”.
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Oil Nears $93 as the Houthis Turn Back Saudi Tankers
Brent crude climbed towards $93 a barrel, a five-week high, after Yemen’s Houthis enforced a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia, forcing two tankers laden with Saudi crude bound for China and India to reverse course in the Red Sea. With the Strait of Hormuz already throttled, the closure threatens the kingdom’s main alternative export route. Kazakhstan separately halted Black Sea exports after a fourth drone strike on tankers at its Novorossiysk terminal.
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Ukraine Launches a 400-Drone Raid on the Moscow Region
Ukraine struck an oil depot and logistics hubs across the Moscow region in one of its largest drone raids of the war, with Russian officials claiming more than 400 drones approached the capital. President Zelensky said Kyiv had also hit six Russian vessels in the Black Sea, including sanctioned “shadow fleet” tankers. Russia, meanwhile, pressed one of its heaviest ballistic barrages on Kyiv.
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Two Firefighters Die as Record Wildfires Ravage France
Two firefighters were killed battling a blaze near Bordeaux-Mérignac airport as France endures its worst wildfire season on record. More than 42,000 hectares have burned since January, surpassing the 2022 record, with a separate out-of-control fire in the Var forcing evacuations. President Macron said France had not seen so many blazes since the Second World War.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Burnham Caps Bus Fares at £2 in a Fresh Cost-of-Living Blitz
Single bus fares across England will be capped at £2 from January and held there through 2027, the Prime Minister has announced, cutting the current £3 limit by a third for millions. It is Andy Burnham’s second cost-of-living intervention in as many days, after Tuesday’s VAT cut on domestic electricity. The scheme, which he ran as Greater Manchester mayor, is backed by £454m of funding.
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Inflation Slips to 2.6 Per Cent, a 15-Month Low, as Fuel Falls
Inflation fell to 2.6 per cent in the year to June, down from 2.8 per cent in May and below the 2.7 per cent economists had expected, official figures showed. It is the lowest reading since spring 2025, driven chiefly by cheaper diesel and petrol, with food and clothing prices also easing. The figures hand the new Prime Minister an early, if fragile, boost as he presses his cost-of-living measures.
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Economists Warn Burnham’s Giveaways Point to Autumn Tax Rises
As the government trumpets cheaper energy and bus fares, economists warn the spending points to tax rises at the Chancellor’s first Budget. June borrowing came in at £16bn, some £7.9bn below a year earlier but still ahead of official forecasts, and analysts say there is little room for extra borrowing. The Institute for Fiscal Studies has questioned how this year’s giveaways will be sustained beyond 2026.
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Gilts Hold Near 5 Per Cent as Markets Eye the Bank of England
The cooler inflation print offered only limited comfort to bond markets, where British borrowing costs remain the highest in the G7. Ten-year gilt yields are holding around 5 per cent and the pound has slipped below $1.34 to a one-week low, after the Prime Minister’s remarks about fiscal “flexibility” rattled investors on Monday. Attention now turns to the Bank of England’s rate decision on 30 July, where a hold is expected.
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Sacked Starmer Loyalists Nurse Their Wounds on the Backbenches
Mr Burnham’s swift purge of Sir Keir Starmer’s allies has left a restive bloc of former ministers on the Labour benches, testing party discipline in his opening days. Pointed parting shots — the ousted Treasury minister Darren Jones has already needled the government over its “unfunded” energy policy — suggest the peace will be uneasy. Some MPs have dismissed the reshuffle as the “same gang, different seats”.
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Evening Briefing
What It Means For You
- A Cost-of-Living Government: Andy Burnham chaired his first Cabinet and declared a “cost-of-living government”, confirming VAT scrapped on domestic electricity from 1 October — about £45 off a typical bill — though a sacked minister branded it “unfunded”. Markets steadied: the FTSE reversed higher to close up and official figures showed pay growth cooling.
- Petrol & Energy: Brent crude rebounded above $91 a barrel as a tenth night of US strikes, a stalled truce and a new Houthi blockade of Red Sea shipping overwhelmed diplomacy hopes. Petrol pumps and winter energy bills remain squeezed.
- Savings & Markets: Ten-year gilt yields held near a two-month high around 5 per cent and sterling stayed soft as investors waited to see how Mr Burnham’s giveaways will be funded; the real test comes at the autumn Budget. Gold hit a fresh record high.
GEO Geopolitical
Iran Weighs a Ten-Day Truce as Trump Demands Tehran Pay
Tehran has received a mediator proposal for a ten-day ceasefire to salvage last month’s interim deal, Iran’s foreign ministry confirmed on Tuesday, signalling that diplomatic channels remain open. Washington is holding out for a longer pause and firm Strait of Hormuz navigation guarantees before any halt, and says its strikes will continue until the President decides otherwise. A tenth consecutive night of American bombing preceded the overtures.
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Oil Rebounds Above $91 as the Houthis Blockade the Red Sea
Brent crude rebounded to more than $91 a barrel on Tuesday, reversing an early dip, after Yemen’s Houthis declared a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia and a tanker was abandoned off Oman. The blockade opens a second front in the region’s shipping war, widening supply fears from the Gulf to the Red Sea, even as mediators pressed a ceasefire proposal. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains near a standstill.
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ASEAN Demands a Hormuz Truce as Rubio Lands in Manila
Southeast Asian foreign ministers opened their annual meeting in Manila on Tuesday under the shadow of the US–Iran war, preparing a joint statement demanding an immediate halt to hostilities and the restoration of safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, arrived for his first visit to the region as America’s top diplomat, as Washington condemned a “dangerous” Chinese clash with the Philippine navy.
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Kazakhstan Halts Black Sea Oil Exports After Tanker Drone Strikes
Kazakhstan suspended crude shipments through its main export terminal near Russia’s Novorossiysk on Tuesday after a wave of drone attacks left tanker operators too nervous to sail, threatening roughly 80 per cent of the country’s oil exports. The strikes on vessels loading Kazakh crude, widely attributed to Ukraine, have dragged a neutral third country’s energy lifeline into the Black Sea shipping war.
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Russia and Ukraine Trade Heavy Drone Barrages as Talks Stall
Russia and Ukraine exchanged fresh waves of drone attacks overnight into Tuesday, with Moscow claiming more than 200 Ukrainian drones downed and Kyiv reporting dozens of Russian strike drones. Russia said it had again hit cargo vessels at Ukraine’s Chornomorsk port, which it alleged were carrying military supplies. No date has been set for the peace talks Kyiv has been pressing for.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Burnham Tells His First Cabinet: We Are a Cost-of-Living Government
Andy Burnham chaired the first meeting of his new Cabinet on Tuesday, declaring his administration a “cost-of-living government” and ordering every department to find ways to ease the squeeze on households. Convening ministers a day after purging eleven of Sir Keir Starmer’s allies, he told them Labour was now “one team” and that all new policies must show how they would be paid for. The confirmed first act — scrapping VAT on domestic electricity from 1 October — set the tone.
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Sacked Starmer Ally Brands Burnham’s Energy Cut “Unfunded”
Mr Burnham’s first major policy was overshadowed within hours when Darren Jones, dismissed from the Cabinet a day earlier, branded the VAT cut on electricity “unfunded”. Mr Jones, who ran the very digital ID scheme whose cancellation is meant to pay for it, argued that programme had no money attached in the first place, so the saving cannot bankroll cheaper bills. The intervention, widely read as revenge for the purge, exposed the new government to accusations of loose accounting on day one.
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Recess Shields Burnham From the Commons Until September
The new Prime Minister will face no Commons scrutiny for six weeks, with Parliament in its summer recess until 1 September and his first Prime Minister’s Questions not due until then. The Conservatives, who tried and failed to delay the recess so Mr Burnham could be questioned on taking office, accused Labour of “running scared”. A government majority of more than 150 blocked the motion, leaving Tuesday’s funding row to play out online rather than on the floor of the House.
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Trump Signals a Manchester Visit After a “Very Good” First Call
Downing Street and the White House confirmed details of Mr Burnham’s first call as Prime Minister with Donald Trump, who called it a “very good conversation” and signalled the pair would meet before long. The two discussed North Sea oil, the military alliance and the de-mining of the Strait of Hormuz. Mr Burnham said he hoped to show the president “what Manchester has to offer” — a striking warming days after Mr Trump branded Britain a “Poverty Stricken Disaster”.
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Burnham Sets Up “No 10 North” and Merges Whitehall Departments
Mr Burnham’s first full day brought structural change to Whitehall as well as policy. Downing Street confirmed a new Manchester base for the Prime Minister’s office — dubbed “No 10 North” — while the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology was abolished and folded back into an enlarged business department, with a new Cabinet-level artificial-intelligence minister created. The moves signal Mr Burnham’s intent to govern from beyond Westminster, even as unions warned of disruption.
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Morning Briefing
What It Means For You
- A New Government Takes Shape: Andy Burnham confirmed his Cabinet on his first full day, naming John Healey as Chancellor, with Ed Miliband at the Foreign Office and Rachel Reeves out. His first act was to scrap VAT on domestic electricity from 1 October, expected to cut a typical bill by around £45 a year.
- Petrol & Energy: Brent crude eased back towards $88 a barrel as mediators floated a ten-day truce, but a tenth night of US strikes on Iran and blocked Strait of Hormuz shipping keep prices near five-week highs. Pump and energy costs stay elevated.
- Savings & Markets: The bond market took fright — ten-year gilt yields hit a two-month high near 5 per cent and sterling slipped — as investors waited for the new Chancellor and questioned how the giveaways will be funded. Watch this week’s inflation and borrowing data.
GEO Geopolitical
US Strikes Iran for a Tenth Night as Tehran Hits Kuwait
American forces bombed Iranian military targets for a tenth consecutive night, with explosions reported across Qeshm Island, Bandar Abbas, Sirik, Shiraz and Isfahan. Tehran retaliated before dawn on Tuesday, its army claiming surface-to-surface missiles struck US HIMARS launchers at Camp Arifjan in Kuwait, where air defences were activated. The American military death toll stands at seventeen, and the Pentagon says nearly a hundred troops have been wounded in the past fortnight.
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Mediators Table a Ten-Day Truce as Iran Signals Openness to Talks
Mediators have handed Tehran a proposal for a ten-day ceasefire to revive last month’s collapsed interim deal, a senior Iranian official said, though Washington has played down the prospect of the President accepting it. The US Secretary of State said America remained open to a diplomatic solution if Iran halted its attacks. Iran asked Pakistan to resume its mediating role even as the strikes continued.
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Oil Retreats From a Five-Week High on Ceasefire Hopes
Brent crude slipped around 0.9 per cent towards $88 a barrel on Tuesday, easing from Monday’s near-$90 close, as reports of a ten-day truce proposal offset the tenth night of strikes and fresh tanker fires in Hormuz. Prices remain near five-week highs and up roughly 20 per cent this month. The retreat came despite Yemen’s Houthis declaring a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia.
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Russian Missiles Kill Ten on a Grain Ship Off Odesa
A Russian cruise-missile strike on the Golden Leo, a bulk carrier laden with corn, killed at least ten as it left Odesa — the deadliest attack yet in a widening Black Sea campaign. The dead included nine foreign crew from Syria and India and a Ukrainian port pilot. In retaliation, Ukraine launched more than 400 drones at the Moscow region overnight, striking an oil depot and wounding at least ten people.
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Ukrainian Civilian Toll Hits a Wartime Record as Crimea Link Is Cut
Russia’s intensifying long-range strikes drove Ukrainian civilian casualties to their highest monthly level since April 2022, United Nations monitors reported — 293 killed and nearly 2,000 injured in June. War analysts said Ukraine’s drone campaign has now partly severed the main road link between mainland Russia and occupied Crimea, forcing Moscow to divert scarce air defences.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Healey Made Chancellor as Burnham Purges Starmer’s Ministers
Andy Burnham has confirmed a sweeping Cabinet on his first full day as Prime Minister, naming John Healey — the former defence secretary who quit over military funding — as Chancellor in a surprise choice. Ed Miliband becomes Foreign Secretary, Shabana Mahmood stays as Home Secretary, Angela Rayner returns to housing and Wes Streeting takes defence. Rachel Reeves, David Lammy and nine other Starmer-era ministers are out.
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Burnham Scraps VAT on Electricity in His First Act as PM
Andy Burnham has used his first full day in office to remove VAT from domestic electricity bills from 1 October, his opening cost-of-living measure. The Chancellor, John Healey, said the cut is funded by cancelling the previous government’s digital ID programme and will lower the Ofgem price cap by around £45 a year. The move delivers on Mr Burnham’s Downing Street pledge to give households “breathing space”.
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Markets Take Fright as Gilt Yields Hit a Two-Month High
Government borrowing costs jumped to their highest in two months and the pound fell after Mr Burnham said he would use “any flexibility” within the fiscal rules. The ten-year gilt yield rose to around 5 per cent, sterling slipped to $1.34 and the FTSE 100 closed lower. Rachel Reeves’s departure, and the delay in naming a Chancellor, unsettled investors who had treated her fiscal rules as an anchor.
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Trump Brands Britain “Poverty Stricken” as Burnham Courts the President
Mr Burnham’s first day was overshadowed by Donald Trump, who called Britain a “Poverty Stricken Disaster” while praising reports the new Prime Minister could ease curbs on North Sea drilling. In their first phone call, Mr Burnham invited Mr Trump to visit Manchester and stressed his commitment to defence and to Strait of Hormuz shipping security. Downing Street says he will honour Labour’s manifesto on oil and gas, pursuing “a change of emphasis” rather than new licences.
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Farage Demands a Snap Election as Badenoch Attacks “Airy Fairy” Plans
Opposition leaders have rounded on Mr Burnham’s unelected arrival in Downing Street. Reform’s Nigel Farage demanded an immediate general election, saying the Prime Minister has “no mandate” beyond his Makerfield by-election. The Conservative leader, Kemi Badenoch, branded his agenda “airy fairy” and, in a letter, urged him to rule out tax rises while refusing to hand him a “blank cheque”. Mr Burnham faces his first Prime Minister’s Questions on Wednesday.
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Evening Briefing
What It Means For You
- A New Prime Minister: Andy Burnham is now in Downing Street, pledging help with the cost of living this week and an end to rough sleeping. Rachel Reeves has gone as Chancellor, with Shabana Mahmood tipped to replace her — the choice markets will judge first.
- Petrol & Energy: Brent crude spiked above $90 overnight before easing back to around $88 as Iran hinted at talks. Pumps and winter bills remain exposed to the Strait of Hormuz; the average US petrol price has already touched $4 a gallon.
- Tax & Spending: The new government inherits a £110bn debt-interest bill and a “tax lock” on income tax, VAT and national insurance. That leaves little room for giveaways without an autumn Budget, so watch the Treasury as the new Chancellor is named.
GEO Geopolitical
US Strikes Iran for a Ninth Night as Third American Dies
US Central Command struck Iran for a ninth consecutive night, hitting Revolutionary Guard air defences, missile stores and coastal surveillance sites it says threaten Hormuz shipping. The attacks followed confirmation that a third American service member had been killed since Friday — two in an Iranian missile strike on the Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan and one in northern Iraq. Seventeen US personnel have now died in the war, with more than 430 wounded.
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Iran Signals Openness to Talks Yet Suspends Its Commitments
Iran said it remained open to negotiations even as the strikes continued. The foreign ministry spokesman, Esmail Baghaei, said intermediaries had gone on exchanging messages with Tehran throughout the latest American bombardment, and that talks could be pursued on Iran’s terms. Hours earlier the deputy foreign minister, Kazem Gharibabadi, said Iran had suspended its commitments under the memorandum of understanding signed last month, deepening doubts over the fragile framework.
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Oil Breaks $90 Then Retreats as Iran Hints at Diplomacy
Brent crude jumped nearly 4 per cent overnight to break $90 a barrel — its highest since mid-June — before easing to around $88 as Iran’s openness to talks tempered supply fears. US West Texas Intermediate slipped to $82.24 a barrel. Yemen’s Houthis declared an immediate maritime embargo on Saudi Arabia, while the average American petrol price touched $4 a gallon.
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Russian Strike on Grain Ship Near Odesa Kills Ten
At least ten people were killed when a Russian strike hit a cargo vessel near the Ukrainian port of Odesa. The Guinea-Bissau-flagged ship, carrying corn and crewed by Indian and Syrian nationals, was struck as Russia said it had targeted fuel reservoirs at the port; eight crew were rescued. The attack pushed July’s death toll in the Odesa region to twenty-eight.
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Ukraine Launches 400 Drones at Moscow, Hitting an Oil Depot
Ukraine sent more than 400 drones against the Moscow region overnight, striking logistics sites and an oil depot over 400km inside Russia. The mayor, Sergei Sobyanin, said most were shot down, including 85 near the capital, but at least ten people were wounded, among them a child and three Chinese citizens. It was one of the largest drone assaults on the capital of the war.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Burnham Becomes PM, Vowing a ‘Circuit-Breaker for Britain’
Andy Burnham became the United Kingdom’s seventh prime minister in a decade on Monday, after King Charles III asked him to form a government following Sir Keir Starmer’s resignation. In his first speech outside Downing Street, Mr Burnham promised to end political instability and pledged help with the cost of living this week, with an end to rough sleeping as an immediate priority. He had been Labour leader for barely three days.
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Reeves and Lammy Out as Burnham Reshapes the Cabinet
Mr Burnham moved swiftly to remake the government, with Rachel Reeves resigning as Chancellor and David Lammy departing as Deputy Prime Minister. The business secretary, Peter Kyle, was sacked, while the housing secretary, Steve Reed, and the science secretary, Liz Kendall, also left. The home secretary, Shabana Mahmood, was reported the frontrunner to become Chancellor, with Ed Miliband, John Healey and Louise Haigh seen entering No 10.
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New PM Inherits £110bn Debt Bill and a Stalled Economy
Mr Burnham takes office facing acute fiscal constraints. The government spent £110bn on debt interest in 2025-26 — about 8 per cent of all public spending — while taxes are forecast to reach their highest share of the economy since the Second World War by the end of the decade. Borrowing has run higher than planned this year, and the economy he inherits has barely grown in two decades.
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Trump Hails North Sea Plan, Calls Britain ‘Poverty Stricken’
President Trump welcomed Mr Burnham’s plan to fast-track North Sea oil and gas exploration, writing on Truth Social that the move would take the United Kingdom from a “Poverty Stricken Disaster, to one of the Richest Countries anywhere in the World”. The new Prime Minister is expected to permit new drilling in already-licensed fields, a notable break from his predecessor’s energy stance. Mr Trump had last month called Mr Burnham “extremely liberal”.
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Reform Leads or Levels With Labour as Burnham Takes Over
Mr Burnham inherits a party under pressure from Reform UK. A YouGov poll for The Times and Sky News on 12-13 July put Reform on 24 per cent, five points clear of the Conservatives and Labour on 19 apiece. A separate Survation survey found Labour and Reform tied on 24 per cent each — Labour’s largest single upward movement since the 2024 general election.
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Morning Briefing
What It Means For You
- A New Prime Minister Today: Andy Burnham enters Downing Street today. He is expected to name his Cabinet, with Shabana Mahmood tipped as Chancellor, scrap the digital ID scheme and promise cost-of-living help. Expect a change of economic direction, though he has bound himself to the manifesto “tax lock” on income tax, VAT and national insurance.
- Petrol & Energy: Brent crude has topped $90 a barrel — its highest since mid-June — after a ninth night of US strikes on Iran and a seizing-up of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Petrol pumps and winter energy bills are directly exposed, and a further squeeze on the strait would push both higher.
- Savings & Markets: Markets have read the handover as orderly — sterling is steady near $1.35 and ten-year gilt yields eased to 4.94 per cent — but the oil spike is now the main inflation risk. Watch the pound and gilts as the new Chancellor is named.
GEO Geopolitical
America Bombs Iran for a Ninth Night as Tabriz Is Hit
US forces completed a ninth consecutive night of strikes on Iran, with explosions reported from the Gulf ports of Sirik and Jask to Chabahar and, for the first time in the campaign, the north-western city of Tabriz. Central Command said it had targeted command centres, air defences and missile and drone launch sites. Iranian authorities reported at least 50 people killed and more than 500 wounded, and the American military death toll has now reached seventeen.
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Iran Strikes Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan in Gulf-Wide Retaliation
Tehran launched a fresh wave of missiles and drones at American allies across the Gulf overnight, sounding air-raid sirens in Bahrain’s capital and striking Kuwait for a second straight day. The Revolutionary Guard said it had fired ballistic missiles at US aircraft at Jordan’s Aqaba airport, claiming “heavy damage”, and had hit the Ali al-Salem airbase in Kuwait. Jordan said its air defences downed several missiles without casualties.
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Brent Tops $90 as Tankers Burn and Hormuz Shipping Seizes Up
Oil surged above $90 a barrel on Monday, its highest since mid-June, after the ninth night of strikes and a third American death revived fears over the Strait of Hormuz. Brent rose more than 2.5 per cent to around $90.50, capping a near-16 per cent weekly gain. Only four vessels transited the strait on Sunday, down from eight, and Britain’s maritime authority reported a vessel on fire off the coast of Oman.
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Russia Unleashes One of the War’s Largest Barrages on Kyiv
Russia fired one of its heaviest ballistic salvoes of the war overnight, launching around 40 missiles — including ten Zircon anti-ship weapons — and 125 drones, mostly at Kyiv. President Zelensky said it was among the largest strike packages against the capital region since 2022, killing at least one civilian and wounding sixteen. A postal sorting terminal in Kharkiv was also hit, killing three.
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Ukrainian Drones Cripple Russia’s Black Sea Fuel Lifeline
Ukraine pressed a sweeping long-range campaign against Russian energy and naval targets, striking three oil depots in Stavropol Krai some 600km inside Russia and setting off large fires. Ukrainian commanders said their forces had hit 176 Russian vessels in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov since 6 July and destroyed five ferries handling around 80 per cent of military transport to occupied Crimea, cutting the Kerch crossing’s capacity by three-quarters.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Burnham to Enter Downing Street as Britain’s Seventh PM in a Decade
Andy Burnham is due to become Prime Minister today after Sir Keir Starmer tenders his resignation to King Charles III. Sir Keir is expected to give a farewell address outside Downing Street this morning before travelling to Buckingham Palace; Mr Burnham will then be invited to form a government and deliver his own first speech around midday. The former Greater Manchester mayor, an MP again for barely a month, was elected Labour leader unopposed on Friday.
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Mahmood Tipped for Chancellor as Burnham Keeps the Cabinet Guessing
Mr Burnham is expected to begin naming his Cabinet only after entering Downing Street, and no appointment has been confirmed. The Home Secretary, Shabana Mahmood, is the reported frontrunner for Chancellor — a choice framed as reassuring to markets and a setback for the energy secretary, Ed Miliband, who is tipped instead for the Foreign Office. Rachel Reeves is expected to be replaced, with comebacks anticipated for Wes Streeting and Angela Rayner.
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Burnham to Axe Starmer’s Digital ID Scheme on Day One
In his first confirmed break from Sir Keir’s programme, Mr Burnham has said he will scrap plans for a government-issued digital ID for all British adults, redirecting the money — reported at around £2bn — to cost-of-living help. His office says one of the new government’s first acts will be to put its focus “where people need it right now”. Conservatives accused him of claiming credit for a retreat already forced by their pressure.
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New PM to Promise “Breathing Space” With Energy Bills in His Sights
Mr Burnham is expected to use his first speech to pledge “breathing space” on the cost of living. A package is anticipated among his first acts, with his team examining a radical energy-bills overhaul, drawn up by the thinktank Nesta, that could cut a typical household’s bill by about £130 a year and make running a heat pump cheaper than a gas boiler. Nothing has been announced or delivered as of this morning.
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Farage Demands an Immediate Election as Burnham “Has No Mandate”
Mr Burnham takes office facing loud calls for a general election. Reform UK’s Nigel Farage says the incoming Prime Minister has “absolutely no mandate of any kind at all” and that voters, not Labour MPs, should decide who governs. The Conservative leader, Kemi Badenoch, has stopped short of demanding an election but dismissed Mr Burnham’s programme as “airy fairy” and cast him as a “people pleaser” unwilling to take tough decisions.
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Evening Briefing
What It Means For You
- Energy Bills: The price cap rose 13 per cent on 1 July, from £1,641 to £1,862 a year for a typical direct-debit household — gas up 24 per cent, electricity up 5 per cent, driven by the Middle East conflict. Roughly 40 per cent of accounts on fixed-term deals are shielded for now; around two million households are already in debt to their supplier, with average arrears up from £1,848 to £2,270 in two years.
- A New Government Tomorrow: Andy Burnham takes office on Monday and will name his Cabinet the same day, with Shabana Mahmood reported to be heading to the Treasury ahead of Ed Miliband. He inherits Labour’s pledge not to raise the main tax rates but has declined to rule out a wealth tax, so autumn fiscal choices are genuinely open.
- Travel & Fuel: The American embassy in Amman urged citizens to avoid Aqaba’s airport and seaport and all Jordanian military sites after an Iranian missile was intercepted over the Red Sea resort; Jordan insists both are operating normally. Brent finished Friday at $88.10, up more than 14 per cent on the week, which will keep forecourt prices firm.
GEO Geopolitical
Washington and Amman Publicly Contradict Each Other Over Aqaba
The American embassy in Amman issued a security alert saying Jordan was “evacuating the King Hussein International Airport and seaport in the Red Sea resort town of Aqaba due to a specific and credible threat”, advising citizens to avoid both sites and all Jordanian military installations. Within hours the Jordanian government flatly denied it. The dispute came a day after Washington confirmed two American personnel had been killed in Jordan, with a third missing.
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Jordanian and Israeli Forces Intercept Iranian Missiles Over Aqaba
Israeli and Jordanian forces intercepted Iranian missiles aimed at Aqaba on Sunday afternoon, the Jordanian military reporting three shot down and a fourth falling in a deserted area. The Israeli military had identified launches from Iran towards the port some forty minutes earlier and warned of possible spillover into Israeli territory. Aqaba lies immediately adjacent to Eilat, and no casualties were reported.
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Senior Senate Democrat Calls the Iran Conflict “A War of Choice”
Senator Mark Warner, the ranking Democrat on the Senate Intelligence Committee, said on CBS’s Face the Nation that American bases in the Middle East had been “on and off under attack” throughout the five months of the conflict and that it remained a war of choice, with no imminent Iranian threat when it began in February. His remarks followed the deaths of two American service members at a Jordanian base at the weekend.
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Rubio Hosts Lebanon’s President Before a Rare White House Visit
The Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, met President Joseph Aoun of Lebanon in Washington on Sunday ahead of talks with President Trump on Tuesday — the first visit by a Lebanese head of state since Michel Sleiman met Barack Obama in 2009. The State Department said Mr Rubio had commended Beirut’s effort to reclaim Lebanese sovereignty and disarm Hezbollah.
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Zelensky Faces Stalemate Over the Sacking of His Defence Minister
The dismissal of Ukraine’s defence minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, an architect of the country’s drone programme, has hardened into a political crisis. More than a thousand people rallied in central Kyiv waving Ukrainian and European flags and chanting “bring Fedorov back”; a deputy commander of the air force and two of Mr Fedorov’s advisers resigned in protest, and parliament is reported to be reluctant to confirm a successor.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Burnham to Name His Cabinet on Monday, With Mahmood Tipped for No 11
Andy Burnham will appoint his Cabinet on Monday, hours after accepting the King’s invitation to form a government. Shabana Mahmood, the Home Secretary, is reported to be his choice as Chancellor, with Ed Miliband — the early favourite and a key ally — expected to move to the Foreign Office instead. Nothing is confirmed until the appointments are announced.
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Burnham Inherits a Slowing Economy and a Strained Washington Relationship
The incoming Prime Minister takes office facing an economy squeezed by the fallout from the Iran conflict, strained public finances and mounting pressure on public services, with growth widely expected to slow sharply this year as inflation rises. He is bound by Labour’s commitment not to raise its main tax rates, though he has refused to rule out a wealth tax.
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Energy Bills Up 13 Per Cent Define the New Government’s In-Tray
The cost-of-living package Mr Burnham has promised meets an energy market already 13 per cent more expensive: the price cap rose on 1 July from £1,641 to £1,862 a year for a typical direct-debit household, the highest since early 2024. Gas bills rose 24 per cent and electricity 5 per cent, driven by wholesale gas costs after Iran moved against the Strait of Hormuz.
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Labour Narrows the Gap on Reform as the Burnham Bounce Registers
Labour has recovered ground in the polls during the leadership contest while Reform UK has slipped. YouGov, publishing on 13 July, put Reform on 24 per cent with the Conservatives and Labour tied on 19; Opinium, three days earlier, had Reform on 24 and Labour on 19, a one-point gain for Labour and a one-point drop for Reform. Both leave Reform in front.
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Channel Crossings Fall 41 Per Cent as the Asylum Bill Divides Labour
Some 11,884 people crossed the Channel in small boats between January and June, a 41 per cent fall on the 19,982 recorded over the same period in 2025, figures cited in the Commons show. Ministers also told MPs that arrests of people smugglers were up 55 per cent and that 46,000 attempted crossings had been stopped in partnership with French law enforcement.
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Morning Briefing
What It Means For You
- Petrol & Energy: American forces struck Iran for an eighth consecutive night and Brent crude is holding near a one-month high of $88, up about 14 per cent on the week. Markets are shut for the weekend, but forecourt and energy-bill pressure will persist, and a confirmed move against a second shipping chokepoint would push prices higher still.
- A New Prime Minister Tomorrow: Andy Burnham enters Downing Street on Monday and has confirmed he will scrap the roughly £2bn digital ID scheme, redirecting the money to the cost of living. His deputy says he will be “bolder” while keeping the manifesto, with a cost-of-living package and the full Cabinet expected on Monday. Expect a clear change of direction.
- Savings & Markets: The war-risk premium in oil persists, the ten-year gilt yield sits near 4.97 per cent, and Friday brought a safe-haven bid into gold and bonds. A prolonged oil shock is the main threat to the inflation the incoming government has promised to bring down.
GEO Geopolitical
US Bombs Iran for an Eighth Night to “Punish” the Revolutionary Guard
American forces struck Iran for an eighth consecutive night into Sunday, hitting coastal surveillance, air-defence and missile-storage sites at Sirik, Qeshm Island, Bandar Abbas and near Shadegan. Central Command said the raids were designed to degrade Iran’s ability to threaten Hormuz shipping and to “swiftly punish” the Revolutionary Guard units behind Friday’s deadly attack on a US base in Jordan. Iranian media reported that a desalination plant was destroyed, cutting water to some 10,000 people.
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American Death Toll in the Iran War Climbs to Sixteen
The American military death toll in the conflict rose to sixteen on Sunday after a Navy pilot missing earlier in the month was declared dead, the second increase this week following the two soldiers killed in Jordan. President Trump, mourning the fallen, called the deaths “a very sad thing” and repeated that Washington would never allow Iran a nuclear weapon. Iran’s health ministry says at least 50 people have been killed and more than 500 wounded over three weeks.
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Iran Hits a Kuwait Plant Again as Bahrain Sirens Wail
Iran pressed its Gulf retaliation on Sunday, launching a large drone attack on two US facilities in Kuwait and striking again the Kuwaiti power-and-water plant hit the previous day, restarting a fire. Bahrain sounded air-raid sirens for a sixth time in hours. The Revolutionary Guard said it had downed a US MQ-9 drone over Ahvaz and warned that vessels defying its Hormuz rules would “certainly face accidents”.
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Russia Fires a Record Ballistic Barrage at Kyiv, Killing One
Russia launched its largest number of ballistic missiles against Kyiv since the start of the war early on Sunday — 41 missiles, including 25 ballistic, alongside 125 drones nationwide. One person was killed and at least sixteen wounded across six districts of the capital. Ukraine said it downed eighteen missiles and 108 drones, suggesting its depleted interceptor stocks have been partly replenished.
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Dozens Missing as a Guyana Ferry Capsizes With 116 Aboard
A passenger ferry, the MV Barima, capsized off Guyana’s coast while sailing from the capital, Georgetown, to Port Kaituma, carrying 116 passengers and crew. It issued a distress call late on Saturday. Prime Minister Mark Phillips said 53 people had been rescued by Sunday, with authorities hoping to find more in daylight. The cause is not yet clear.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Burnham to Scrap Starmer’s £2bn Digital ID Scheme
Andy Burnham will axe Sir Keir Starmer’s flagship digital identity programme when he takes office on Monday, redirecting the money — put at around £2bn — to the cost of living in what his team calls a “reset of priorities”. It is the first major policy break from his predecessor that Mr Burnham has confirmed before entering Downing Street. The scheme, announced last year for right-to-work checks, drew a petition of roughly three million signatures.
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Burnham Will Be Bolder but Keep the Manifesto, Says His Deputy
Labour’s deputy leader, Lucy Powell, said Andy Burnham would stand by the 2024 manifesto while being “bolder and more ambitious”, using the change of leader to “clear the decks” and focus on the cost of living. Speaking on the BBC’s Sunday programme, she defended scrapping digital ID as “reprioritising” and backed greater public ownership, arguing the economy had been “overly privatised”.
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Badenoch Dismisses Burnham’s Plans as “Airy-Fairy Stuff”
The Conservative leader, Kemi Badenoch, used the BBC’s Sunday programme to attack Andy Burnham as a “people pleaser” unwilling to take tough decisions, dismissing his weekend pronouncements as “airy-fairy stuff”. She refused to give the incoming Prime Minister “a blank cheque” and rejected his call for less political point-scoring, vowing to score “as many points as possible” in the national interest.
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Rayner Tipped for a Cabinet Return as Burnham’s Team Takes Shape
Angela Rayner is being lined up for a Cabinet comeback as Andy Burnham finalises his top team over the weekend, according to reports, with Wes Streeting also expected to return. One account suggesting Ms Rayner would take Health to lead an £18bn National Care Service was dismissed by sources close to her. The full Cabinet will be confirmed only after Mr Burnham enters Downing Street on Monday.
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Farage’s Finances Dog Reform on the Eve of the Handover
As Labour prepares to take power, Reform UK remains under pressure over Nigel Farage’s finances: a tax expert claims the party could face a £3m bill over his undeclared £5m donation, on top of a paused parliamentary standards inquiry and calls for an Electoral Commission investigation. Mr Farage denies any wrongdoing and alleges an “establishment hit job”.
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Evening Briefing
What It Means For You
- Petrol & Energy: Brent crude settled near $88 a barrel — a one-month high, up more than 14 per cent on the week — as the US–Iran war choked the Strait of Hormuz. Forecourt prices and the wholesale gas price that sets energy bills are directly exposed, and a fresh sustained closure of the strait would push both higher.
- A New Prime Minister on Monday: Andy Burnham enters Downing Street on Monday signalling a change of direction — a cost-of-living package that would cut VAT on energy and make heat pumps cheaper, a shift towards new North Sea drilling, and greater public control of utilities such as Thames Water, with Shabana Mahmood tipped as Chancellor. Expect tax and spending decisions in the autumn.
- Savings & Markets: The ten-year gilt yield sits near 4.97 per cent and a safe-haven bid lifted gold on Friday, but a prolonged war-driven oil shock is the main threat to the inflation the incoming government has promised to bring down.
GEO Geopolitical
Two US Troops Killed as Iranian Missiles Strike Jordan Base
Two American service members were killed and one remains missing after an Iranian ballistic missile and drone attack on the Muwaffaq Salti airbase at Azraq in Jordan late on Friday, US Central Command said. Four others were taken to hospital and later discharged. They are the first American fatalities of the renewed conflict, and prompted a direct retaliatory bombing order from Washington.
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Iran Strikes Kuwait, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia in Widening Barrage
Iran launched attacks across the Gulf on Saturday, striking a Kuwaiti power and desalination plant and an oil facility, hitting Bahrain’s Sheikh Isa airbase, and firing a ballistic missile at a US base at al-Kharj near Riyadh — its first strike on Saudi territory in nearly three months. Kuwait International Airport suspended operations; Jordan said it intercepted four drones and ten missiles.
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Oil Jumps to a One-Month High as West Demands Strait Reopened
Oil prices climbed more than four per cent to their highest in over a month as Iran and the United States traded strikes on energy and shipping infrastructure, with Brent settling around $88 a barrel. Washington reimposed a naval blockade of Iranian ports, while Tehran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed. The European Union and Gulf states jointly demanded that Iran halt its attacks and keep the waterway open without fees.
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Ukrainian Drones Cripple Russia’s Largest Retailer’s Warehouses
Ukrainian long-range drones struck two vast logistics hubs of Wildberries, Russia’s largest online retailer, near Moscow and in Tambov overnight, causing fires and losses estimated at up to 100 billion roubles, around $1.3bn. Russian governors said the strikes killed eight and injured more than sixty. On the front, Russia’s top general, Valery Gerasimov, again claimed sweeping advances in Donetsk that war analysts say the evidence does not support.
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Lebanon’s President Heads to the White House Over Israeli Withdrawal
The Lebanese President, Joseph Aoun, departed for Washington to meet President Trump, the first visit by a Lebanese head of state since 2009. Mr Aoun will press for American guarantees on an Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, reinforcement of the fragile framework agreement, and a reconstruction package. The trip follows US-mediated talks in Rome that agreed “pilot zones” for a phased Israeli pull-back.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Mahmood Favourite for Chancellor as Burnham Finalises His Team
The Home Secretary, Shabana Mahmood, has become the frontrunner to replace Rachel Reeves as Chancellor when Andy Burnham names his Cabinet on Monday, after his inner circle objected to the early favourite, Ed Miliband, now tipped for the Foreign Office. Seen as being on Labour’s right and able to reassure markets, Ms Mahmood has no prior economic brief. Mr Burnham insists no final decision has been made.
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Burnham Plans New North Sea Drilling in Break With Manifesto
Andy Burnham will announce plans for new North Sea oil and gas drilling once in office, a shift from Labour’s 2024 manifesto pledge to issue no new licences. Green figures and campaigners rounded on him within hours, while industry and unions welcomed the move. Sources stress that no final decision has been made and that the plan may come after his first day.
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Burnham Lines Up a Cost-of-Living Package to Cut Energy Bills
Andy Burnham is preparing a cost-of-living package as one of his first acts as Prime Minister, reportedly including making heat pumps cheaper than gas boilers and cutting VAT on domestic energy. Aides say he intends a “dynamic start”, with a Downing Street speech promising households “breathing space” and growth “in every postcode”.
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Labour Pulls Level With Reform in the Final Starmer-Era Poll
Labour has drawn level with Reform UK on 24 per cent each, up five points and its biggest single jump since the 2024 election, in Survation’s last poll of Sir Keir Starmer’s leadership. Reform fell three points to 24 per cent, its lowest in over a year; the Conservatives rose to 21. Prompting voters with Mr Burnham’s name made no difference, suggesting he is already seen as the de-facto leader.
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Thames Water Awaits Burnham as First Public-Ownership Test
Debt-laden Thames Water, around £20bn in the red and serving 16 million customers, is shaping up as the earliest test of Mr Burnham’s pledge for “greater public control” of essential services. He has said there is a strong case for public ownership; the company’s lenders say they want to see what a Burnham government intends before providing more funding.
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Morning Briefing
What It Means For You
- Petrol & Energy: Brent crude jumped to about $88 a barrel — up around 16 per cent on the week — as the widening US–Iran war throttled traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Forecourt prices and the wholesale gas price that sets energy bills are directly exposed, and a confirmed move on a second chokepoint would push both higher.
- A New Prime Minister on Monday: Andy Burnham enters Downing Street on Monday with an interventionist agenda — public control of essential services, a large council-housing drive, and no ruling-out of a wealth tax — with Shabana Mahmood tipped as Chancellor. Expect a shift in economic direction and likely tax decisions in the autumn.
- Savings & Markets: Fear drove a safe-haven move on Friday: gold rose and UK and US government bond yields eased, but a chip-led sell-off pushed shares lower and the “fear gauge” jumped around 12 per cent. A sustained oil shock would feed the inflation the new government has promised to bring down.
GEO Geopolitical
Iran Warns of “Full-Scale Offensive” After a Seventh Night of Strikes
US Central Command said it completed a seventh consecutive night of strikes on Iran early on Saturday, hitting weapons stores and maritime targets around Bandar Abbas and the Strait of Hormuz. A senior adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, Mohsen Rezaei, warned that Tehran would move to “full-scale offensive operations” within days if the barrage continued through the weekend. Iranian officials say 38 people have been killed and more than 400 wounded over the past week.
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Iran Hits Kuwaiti Power Plant as the War Spills Across the Gulf
Iran’s retaliation reached deep into Gulf civilian infrastructure, with Kuwait reporting that an Iranian strike damaged a combined power and desalination plant, starting a fire and knocking out generating units. Desalination supplies around 90 per cent of Kuwait’s drinking water, exposing the vulnerability of the Gulf states now caught in the war. Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar said their air defences intercepted further drone attacks overnight, and Kuwaiti forces reported injuries among their troops.
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Oil Surges to $88 as Strait of Hormuz Shipping Collapses
Brent crude settled 4.6 per cent higher at $88.10 a barrel on Friday, capping a weekly gain of about 16 per cent — its strongest in months — as the US–Iran strikes choked the Strait of Hormuz. Confirmed crude transit through the waterway has fallen by around 62 per cent to some four million barrels a day. Tehran has pressed Yemen’s Houthis to be ready to close the Red Sea, raising the prospect of a second severed chokepoint.
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Russia Digs In for Attrition War as Putin’s Approval Slumps
Russia is optimising its forces for grinding positional warfare rather than the mechanised manoeuvre needed for rapid gains, and neither side made confirmed advances on Friday, according to the latest campaign assessment. A Russian state-affiliated pollster recorded one of the sharpest falls in President Putin’s approval since the war began. In Kyiv, President Zelensky pressed on with a sweeping wartime cabinet reshuffle, installing a new prime minister and moving to change his defence chief.
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Powerful Earthquake Rattles Southern Mexico, No Deaths Reported
A magnitude 7.3 earthquake struck off the coast of Chiapas in southern Mexico, shaking buildings from Mexico City to El Salvador and briefly triggering a Pacific tsunami advisory that was later lifted. Authorities reported no deaths and only minor injuries and structural damage across Mexico, Guatemala and El Salvador. President Claudia Sheinbaum said preliminary reports showed no significant damage in the affected states.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Burnham Declared Labour Leader, to Become Prime Minister on Monday
Andy Burnham was formally declared leader of the governing Labour Party on Friday, securing nominations from 379 of the party’s 403 MPs as the sole candidate to succeed Sir Keir Starmer. The former Greater Manchester mayor becomes Britain’s seventh prime minister since 2016 when Sir Keir tenders his resignation to the King on Monday. In his first speech Mr Burnham promised to “give people hope back” and to build “a new politics”.
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Reeves Faces the Axe as Burnham Lines Up a New Chancellor
Rachel Reeves is expected to leave the Treasury when Mr Burnham names his government on Monday, with the Home Secretary, Shabana Mahmood, the reported frontrunner to become Chancellor. The energy secretary, Ed Miliband, once tipped for the role, is instead expected to move to the Foreign Office. Mr Burnham’s team insists no final decisions have been taken and that the full cabinet will be appointed only after he enters Downing Street.
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Labour Pulls Level With Reform as Burnham Inherits a Polling Boost
Labour has drawn level with Reform UK on 24 per cent apiece, according to a Survation poll, its largest jump since the 2024 general election and the first time it has caught Reform in the series for more than a year. The Conservatives trail on 21 per cent. A separate Ipsos poll found Mr Burnham is the public’s clear choice for prime minister on 30 per cent, well ahead of Nigel Farage and Kemi Badenoch.
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Farage to Fight a Record 33 Rivals in Clacton By-Election
Nigel Farage will face a record 33 candidates in the Clacton by-election on 13 August, a contest he triggered himself by resigning as an MP on 7 July and re-standing. His resignation suspended a parliamentary standards inquiry into an undeclared £5m donation from the businessman Christopher Harborne. Labour, the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens are all boycotting the seat.
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Burnham Pledges a Power Shift From Westminster and a Housing Drive
In his first speech as Labour leader, Mr Burnham set out a programme built on shifting power out of Whitehall, “the biggest council house building programme since the postwar period”, and fixing social care. He argued that Britain took “a series of wrong turns in the 1980s” when power was centralised and essential services privatised, promising “good growth in every postcode” and greater public control of utilities.
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Evening Briefing
What It Means For You
- Petrol & Energy: Brent crude jumped around 2% to about $86 a barrel as the US widened its strikes on Iran and Iran hit a Gulf power plant. Pump prices, near 151p a litre, will keep climbing, and the wholesale gas price that sets energy bills is exposed to the same shock.
- A New Prime Minister on Monday: Andy Burnham was confirmed Labour leader today and enters No 10 on Monday. He has signalled a more interventionist course — greater public control of essential services, more social housing, and he has not ruled out a wealth tax — with Shabana Mahmood tipped as Chancellor. Expect a shift in economic direction and likely tax rises in the autumn.
- Heat, Fire & Water: Today was forecast to be the hottest of the spell, up to 35 to 36C in the South, before a cooler, more unsettled weekend brings a risk of heavy showers and thunderstorms. Hosepipe bans now cover millions of households. Save water, and take care in any sudden downpours.
GEO Geopolitical
US Strikes Iran’s Bridges and Bandar Abbas Port on a Sixth Night
American forces widened their campaign against Iran overnight, striking five road and rail bridges in Hormozgan province in an apparent bid to sever the port city of Bandar Abbas from its links to Tehran. US Central Command said precision munitions hit dozens of military targets near Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island, collapsed a tower at the port complex, and again struck Iranshahr airport; US forces also boarded a tanker. It was the sixth consecutive night of strikes, enacting part of President Trump’s threat to “knock out all their bridges”, though the threatened strikes on power plants have not been carried out.
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Iran Hits a Kuwaiti Water and Power Plant, Widening the War
Iran’s retaliation reached deep into Gulf civilian infrastructure, with Kuwait reporting that an Iranian strike damaged a combined desalination and electricity plant, starting a fire and knocking out several generating units. Desalination supplies around 90% of Kuwait’s drinking water, laying bare the vulnerability of the Gulf states now caught in the war. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, which called it part of a “15th wave” of its operation, also claimed strikes on US assets in Qatar, Bahrain, Jordan and Oman, though those claims could not be verified.
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Oil Climbs Toward $86 as Iran Threatens a Second Chokepoint
Brent crude rose around 2% on Friday to roughly $86 a barrel, its highest in weeks, after the strike on Kuwait’s power plant and the widening US campaign, with tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz at a two-month low. Adding to the alarm, Tehran was reported to have told Yemen’s Houthis to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait — a second vital chokepoint for global shipping — if its power infrastructure is struck. Together the two straits carry a large share of the world’s seaborne oil.
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Russian Strikes Kill Four in Ukraine as the Reshuffle Backlash Grows
Russian attacks overnight killed at least four people and wounded around twenty across Ukraine, with two dead in Odesa, two in Zaporizhzhia and injuries in Kharkiv. The strikes came as Ukraine fights under an interim defence chief following President Zelensky’s contested government reshuffle, whose sacking of the popular defence minister Mykhaylo Fedorov has drawn protests in several cities. Ukraine said it had destroyed a Russian Tu-95 bomber at the Engels airbase, some 800 kilometres inside Russia, in its continuing campaign against the aircraft and refineries that sustain Moscow’s war.
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A Spanish Wildfire Forces Evacuations as Europe’s Heat Rebuilds
Firefighters in north-eastern Spain battled a wildfire near Ores in Aragon that spread past 12,000 hectares overnight, forcing more than a thousand people to evacuate, with some 30 aircraft and 300 military personnel deployed. Further fires burned near Madrid and in Guadalajara, and Athens was on high alert. Though the heatwave that set the continent alight is receding — the World Health Organization has linked the recent spell to around 10,000 excess deaths — forecasters warn temperatures will rebuild from Saturday, with 42 to 44C possible in southern Spain next week.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Burnham Declared Labour Leader, Vowing the “Biggest Rebalancing”
Andy Burnham was formally declared leader of the Labour Party at a special conference in London today, the last step before he enters Downing Street on Monday as Prime Minister. The sole candidate, backed by the overwhelming majority of Labour’s MPs and most of the affiliated unions, he used his acceptance speech to promise to “give people hope back” and “good growth in every postcode”, pledging the “biggest rebalancing” of power in modern British history from Whitehall to the cities and regions. He said his government would be “unashamedly Labour”, named social care as a neglected problem he would fix, and paid tribute to Sir Keir Starmer.
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Burnham’s Economic Pitch: Public Control of Essentials
In his first remarks as leader, Andy Burnham set out an interventionist economic direction, arguing that the government could not control inflation without greater public control over essential services. He named a ramp-up in social housing, the reindustrialisation of the economy and bringing essential utilities under greater public control as priorities, framing them against a squeezed cost of living. The pitch marks a clear shift in tone from the outgoing government’s fiscal caution, and sits alongside his refusal to rule out a wealth tax.
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Mahmood Set for Chancellor as the Cabinet Takes Shape
Reports say Andy Burnham is set to name the Home Secretary, Shabana Mahmood, as his Chancellor, having chosen her over Ed Miliband, Yvette Cooper and Wes Streeting. Mr Miliband, once the favourite, is now seen as unlikely for the Treasury amid business concern over his energy stance, and Rachel Reeves is reported to be leaving the Chancellorship. No appointments are confirmed, and Mr Burnham is expected to name his cabinet only after he enters Downing Street on Monday.
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China Rebukes Britain Over the British Steel Nationalisation
China reacted angrily to the nationalisation of British Steel, with its commerce ministry saying it was “strongly dissatisfied” and warning the move had dealt “a severe blow to Chinese companies’ confidence in investing in the UK”. The government took the Scunthorpe steelworks — Britain’s last able to make steel from raw materials — and its Teesside mills into public ownership on Thursday, protecting thousands of jobs, after the Chinese owner Jingye, which bought the business for £70m in 2020, moved to halt operations at a plant losing around £700,000 a day.
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Heatwave Peaks as Thunderstorms Loom for the Weekend
Friday was forecast to be the hottest day of Britain’s third heatwave, with temperatures expected to reach 35 to 36C in southern and eastern England under heat-health alerts that ran until this evening. A cooler, more unsettled spell is due to arrive over the weekend as fresher Atlantic air moves in, bringing a rising risk of heavy showers and thunderstorms, with the potential for downpours, lightning and gusty winds. Two more hosepipe bans, from Cambridge Water — its first in three decades — and Affinity Water, are now in force, part of a wave of restrictions across the country.
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Morning Briefing
What It Means For You
- Petrol & Energy: Oil is holding around $84 to $85 a barrel as the US blockade keeps shipping through the Strait of Hormuz near a two-month low, and pump prices — close to 151p a litre — are climbing again. The wholesale gas price that sets energy bills is exposed to the same shock.
- A New Prime Minister on Monday — and Tax Rises Ahead: Andy Burnham is confirmed Labour leader today and becomes Prime Minister on Monday, with Shabana Mahmood tipped as his Chancellor. He has not ruled out a wealth tax and has hinted at “asking for a little more”, so plan for tax rises in the autumn Budget.
- Heat, Fire & Water: Today brings another hot day, with up to 35 to 36C possible in the South, before a cooler, more unsettled spell with thunderstorms reaches the country over the weekend. Two more hosepipe bans, from Cambridge Water and Affinity Water, take effect today. Keep saving water and check on the elderly and unwell.
GEO Geopolitical
US Strikes Hit Iranian Airport, Railway and Bridges Overnight
American forces struck Iran again overnight, US Central Command said, in another night of a campaign now approaching a week, hitting air-defence, logistics and coastal-surveillance sites. Iranian state media reported strikes on Iranshahr airport, the Bandar Abbas railway junction and two bridges in Hormozgan province. Iran’s health ministry put the toll since the fighting resumed at more than 35 killed and over 300 wounded — a figure that cannot be independently verified. President Trump threatened to widen the war “next week”, saying the US would “knock out all their power plants… all their bridges” if Tehran refused a deal.
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US Spares Kharg’s Oil Terminal as Trump Holds Off Wider Action
For all the talk of escalation, the US has so far stopped short of its most drastic options. American forces struck military targets on Kharg Island but deliberately avoided the oil terminal that handles the bulk of Iran’s crude exports, which Iran says is undamaged and operating normally, and no decision has been announced on the mooted seizing of the island or the use of ground forces. The naval blockade of Iran’s ports holds, though Trump has dropped an earlier idea of charging a toll on Hormuz shipping.
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Iran’s Strikes Reach the Gulf Mediators, Straining Diplomacy
Iran’s retaliation continued to rain on US-linked sites across the Gulf — Jordan and Kuwait reported intercepting missiles and drones, with debris damage but no deaths — and, more damagingly for any peace effort, reached the mediators themselves. Oman, which had hosted Iran’s foreign minister only hours earlier, issued a rare formal protest to Tehran after strikes on its territory, and Qatar was also hit. The White House insisted Iran “very much continues to talk”, but the attacks on the very states brokering a ceasefire have left the diplomacy badly frayed.
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Zelensky’s Wartime Reshuffle Sparks a Backlash
President Zelensky’s decision to overhaul his government in the middle of the war has drawn an unusually public backlash. The dismissal of the popular defence minister Mykhaylo Fedorov, architect of Ukraine’s drone programme, along with the departure of the prime minister, triggered protests in several cities and criticism from soldiers, veterans and lawmakers who fear the loss of momentum. The reshuffle came as Russia struck Kyiv, killing at least two, and as Ukrainian drones hit a Russian refinery at Syzran, deepening Moscow’s fuel troubles.
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Congo’s Ebola Outbreak Remains the Fastest-Growing on Record
The Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo stands at more than 2,000 confirmed cases and over 750 deaths, the fastest-growing outbreak of the disease ever recorded and now the third-largest, according to the World Health Organization, which warns the true scale may be several times the official count. The Bundibugyo strain involved has no approved vaccine, though a clinical trial of an antibody treatment has begun. Ituri province is worst hit, and a handful of cases have crossed into Uganda.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Burnham to Be Confirmed Labour Leader Today
Andy Burnham will be formally confirmed as Labour leader at a special party conference today, having secured the leadership unopposed, and becomes Prime Minister on Monday when the King appoints him after Sir Keir Starmer resigns. In his first speech as leader he is expected to promise to be “unashamedly Labour” and to show the “courage to fix the big things that politics has neglected”. It completes one of the swiftest transfers of power in modern British history, a man outside Parliament weeks ago installed in Downing Street by Monday.
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Mahmood Set for Chancellor as the Cabinet Takes Shape
Reports say Andy Burnham is set to name the Home Secretary, Shabana Mahmood, as his Chancellor, passing over the early favourite Ed Miliband, who is now tipped for the Foreign Office. Mahmood is said to have beaten Mr Miliband, Yvette Cooper and Wes Streeting to the Treasury; Rachel Reeves is expected to be replaced. Mr Miliband’s candidacy for the Treasury had reportedly unsettled business over his stance on net zero and North Sea licensing. Burnham’s team stress no appointments are confirmed until he takes office.
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The Heat Reaches Another Hot Day as More Hosepipe Bans Begin
The heatwave brings another hot day on Friday, with the Met Office forecasting widely above 30C across England and Wales and up to 35 or 36C in the hottest spots, under yellow heat-health alerts that run until this evening. A cooler, more unsettled spell with thunderstorms is expected to reach the country over the weekend, though the South stays warm into Saturday. Two more hosepipe bans, from Cambridge Water and Affinity Water, took effect from just after midnight, covering parts of the East and South East and adding to restrictions on millions of households.
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Widdecombe Suspect Still Held as Scotland Brings a Charge Over Online Abuse
The man arrested over the killing of Ann Widdecombe remains in custody without charge, held under a Terrorism Act warrant while Counter Terrorism Policing leads what it has called a targeted attack; officers stress it has not been declared a terrorist incident. In a separate case, Police Scotland has charged a 50-year-old over online comments said to celebrate her death, with a report to go to the procurator fiscal. No motive has been established in the killing, and reporting restrictions limit what can be said while proceedings are active.
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The Starmer Government’s Final Acts: Kyiv and British Steel
Sir Keir Starmer’s premiership closed on two deliberate notes. On his last overseas trip he travelled to Kyiv, pledging £255m with Sweden towards 16 Gripen fighter jets for Ukraine and being awarded the Order of Freedom, telling Kyiv Britain’s support “will endure” under his successor. At home, his government took British Steel into public ownership, securing the Scunthorpe blast furnaces — Britain’s last able to make steel from raw materials — and thousands of jobs from its Chinese owner. Both now pass to Andy Burnham.
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Evening Briefing
What It Means For You
- Petrol & Energy: Oil is holding above $85 a barrel as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz collapses under the US blockade, and pump prices — near 151p a litre — are climbing again. The wholesale gas price that sets energy bills is exposed to the same shock, so budget for higher motoring and heating costs.
- A New PM on Monday — and Tax Rises Ahead: Andy Burnham is confirmed leader on Friday and Prime Minister on Monday, with Shabana Mahmood tipped as his Chancellor. He has not ruled out a wealth tax and has hinted at “asking for a little more”, so expect tax rises in the autumn Budget. Separately, British Steel is now in public ownership.
- Heat, Fire & Water: The heatwave has passed its peak and a cooler, more unsettled spell arrives from Saturday. Yellow heat-health alerts run until Friday evening, and fresh hosepipe bans from Cambridge Water and Affinity Water take effect on Friday. Keep saving water and check on the elderly and unwell.
GEO Geopolitical
US Strikes Iran for a Sixth Day as Iran Fires on Gulf Bases
The US and Iran traded fire for a sixth consecutive day. US Central Command ran a fresh strike operation against Bandar Abbas, Greater Tunb island and sites across northern and central Iran, targeting command centres, air defences and missile capacity. Iran answered by aiming missiles and drones at US-linked bases across the Gulf: Kuwait said it intercepted four cruise missiles and 21 drones, Jordan reported downing eight missiles, and Iran claimed strikes on air bases in Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan. Iran’s health ministry put the cumulative toll since fighting resumed last week at least 35 killed and more than 300 wounded.
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Hormuz Shipping Collapses as Oil Holds Above $85
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries about a fifth of the world’s oil and gas, has all but dried up under the US blockade: trackers counted just seven vessels crossing on Wednesday, down from thirteen the day before. Brent crude held above $85 a barrel, near a one-month high, having climbed more than 10% over the week, before easing slightly on the day as traders took profits. Owners are refusing the passage after Iranian strikes on tankers and the American disabling of a ship bound for Iran’s main oil terminal.
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Trump Weighs Widening the War as Iran Calls It “Existential”
President Trump is reported to be weighing options to broaden the operation against Iran, with more airstrikes, the seizing of Gulf islands or of Kharg Island, Iran’s main oil terminal, and strikes on fortified sites all said to be under consideration; no decision has been taken. Iran’s lead negotiator, General Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, called it “an essential and existential war with America” while signalling the door to talks was not fully closed, and an Iranian military spokesman threatened to “crush” Gulf infrastructure if the US hit Iranian facilities.
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Zelensky Reshuffles His Government After a Deadly Kyiv Strike
President Zelensky dismissed his defence minister, Mykhaylo Fedorov, in a government reshuffle that also followed the recent removal of his prime minister, as Ukraine looks for fresh momentum in the war. The shake-up came hours after Russian missiles struck two districts of Kyiv early on Thursday, killing at least two people, including a teenager, and setting warehouses ablaze — shortly before Sir Keir Starmer arrived in the city. The United Nations said June had been the deadliest month for Ukrainian civilians in more than three years.
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Congo’s Ebola Outbreak Passes 2,000 Cases as It Outruns Containment
The Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo has passed 2,000 confirmed cases and more than 750 deaths, the fastest-growing outbreak of the disease on record and now the third-largest ever. The medical charity Médecins Sans Frontières warned the epidemic is moving faster than efforts to contain it, and the World Health Organization says the true scale may be several times the official count. The strain involved, the Bundibugyo species, has no approved vaccine, and cases have spread across five provinces with a handful over the border in Uganda.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Starmer’s Farewell in Kyiv: £255m for Fighter Jets
On his final overseas trip as Prime Minister, Sir Keir Starmer met President Zelensky in Kyiv and announced £255m, jointly with Sweden, to help deliver a squadron of 16 advanced Gripen fighter jets to strengthen Ukraine’s air defences. He pledged that Britain’s support “will endure” and that the handover to Andy Burnham “doesn’t change that dynamic at all”. Arriving by train hours after a Russian strike killed two people in the city, he was awarded Ukraine’s Order of Freedom on what was his fourth visit as Prime Minister.
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British Steel Taken Into Public Ownership
The government took British Steel into full public ownership today, after the Steel Industry (Nationalisation) Act received Royal Assent yesterday, in one of the final acts of the Starmer government. The move secures the Scunthorpe blast furnaces — the last in Britain able to make steel from raw materials — and around 2,700 jobs, after the previous Chinese owner, Jingye, moved to halt operations. The Business Secretary, Peter Kyle, said “British Steel now belongs to the British people”; Jingye is seeking compensation, to be set by an independent valuer.
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Burnham Locked In as Mahmood Is Tipped for Chancellor
Andy Burnham’s path to Downing Street is complete, unopposed, with the trade-union nomination window closing this evening; he is confirmed Labour leader at a special conference on Friday and becomes Prime Minister on Monday. Speculation over his cabinet intensified, with multiple reports now tipping the Home Secretary, Shabana Mahmood, as Chancellor, and Ed Miliband moving to the Foreign Office rather than the Treasury; Rachel Reeves is expected to be replaced. Burnham’s team insisted no decision has been taken until he is in office. The Commons rose for its summer recess today.
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Widdecombe Suspect Still Held as a Separate Arrest Is Made Over Online Abuse
The man arrested over the killing of Ann Widdecombe remains in custody without charge this evening, held under a Terrorism Act warrant while Counter Terrorism Policing leads the investigation; officers stress it has not been declared a terrorist incident. In a separate case, Police Scotland arrested and charged a 50-year-old man over social-media comments said to celebrate her death, with a report to go to the procurator fiscal. No motive has been established in the killing, and reporting restrictions limit what can be said while proceedings are active.
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The Heat Passes Its Peak as a Cooldown Nears
Britain’s third heatwave of the year has passed its peak, with temperatures reaching the low-to-mid 30s in the South East on Thursday — below the 35C recorded earlier in the spell — before a cooler, more unsettled spell arrives from Saturday. Yellow heat-health alerts from the UK Health Security Agency remain in force across much of England until Friday evening, and forecasters still warn of a high wildfire risk on tinder-dry ground. Fresh hosepipe bans from Cambridge Water and Affinity Water take legal effect on Friday, adding to restrictions that already cover millions of households.
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Morning Briefing
What It Means For You
- Petrol & Energy: Oil is holding near a one-month high around $85 a barrel as the US blockade of Iran chokes Gulf shipping, and the RAC says pump prices — near 151p a litre — have started climbing again. The wholesale gas price that sets energy bills is exposed to the same shock.
- A New PM on Monday — and Possible Tax Rises: Andy Burnham is confirmed leader and becomes Prime Minister on Monday, with Shabana Mahmood tipped as his Chancellor. He has declined to rule out a wealth tax and warned he may have to “ask for a little more”, so plan for tax rises in the autumn.
- Heat, Fire & Water: The heatwave peaks today at around 35C, with yellow heat-health alerts in force until Friday evening and extreme wildfire risk on tinder-dry ground. Hosepipe bans now cover more than eight million households. Save water, avoid disposable barbecues, and check on the elderly and unwell.
GEO Geopolitical
US Strikes Expand Into Northern Iran on the Fifth Day
American forces widened their campaign against Iran overnight into a fifth consecutive day, striking coastal-defence and cruise-missile sites, including a 90-minute barrage on Greater Tunb Island, and expanding the strikes into northern Iran for the first time. US Central Command said it was continuing to enforce its naval blockade of Iran’s ports, having turned back or disabled ships bound for the country and redirected two compliant vessels in the blockade’s first day. President Trump is reported to be weighing options to widen the operation further.
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Iran Retaliates Across the Gulf and Rules Out Talks
Iran pressed its counter-attack overnight, aiming missiles and drones at US-linked sites across the Gulf. Jordan said its air defences shot down eight Iranian missiles crossing its territory, and video verified by CNN showed a drone striking a warehouse near Mina Abdullah in Kuwait, which Iran’s Revolutionary Guard claimed was a US logistics centre. Iran’s foreign ministry said it would keep responding “firmly” and had “no plans for negotiations”, hardening its stance against the mediation efforts of Qatar and Oman.
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Russia Strikes Kyiv Hours Before Starmer’s Farewell Visit
Russian missiles hit two districts of Kyiv early on Thursday, killing at least two people, including a teenager, and setting warehouses ablaze, only hours before Sir Keir Starmer was due in the city on his final foreign trip as Prime Minister to meet President Zelensky. The strike came days after Ukraine and nine European states launched a coalition to build a shared missile defence, and as Mr Zelensky reshuffled his government, dismissing his defence minister. President Putin has vowed retaliation “several times more powerful” for Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries.
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Congo’s Ebola Outbreak Is the Fastest-Growing Ever Recorded
The Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo has become the fastest-growing on record and the third-largest ever, the World Health Organization says, with confirmed cases nearing 2,000 and more than 700 deaths across five provinces. Cases have tripled in under five weeks, and the WHO warns the true scale may be far higher, with around 80% of new infections coming from untraced chains. The strain involved, the Bundibugyo species, has no approved vaccine or specific treatment.
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Oil Holds Near a One-Month High as the Blockade Bites
Crude held near a one-month high on Thursday, with Brent around $84 to $85 a barrel after climbing more than 10% over the past week, as the US blockade and strikes choked traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Prices eased slightly in early trading on profit-taking and doubts about demand, but the war premium remains firmly in place; roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and gas normally passes through the strait. Analysts warn prices could retest $100 a barrel if the disruption deepens or oil infrastructure is struck.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Burnham’s Coronation Nears as the Final Box Is Ticked
Andy Burnham’s path to Downing Street enters its last procedural day. Backed by 379 of Labour’s 403 MPs, according to the party’s own tally, and unopposed, he is set to be confirmed leader at a special conference on Friday and installed as Prime Minister on Monday, once Sir Keir Starmer formally resigns to the King. The 24-hour window for trade-union and affiliate nominations closes at 6pm today, the last formality before his coronation, with the major Labour-linked unions already declared for him.
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Mahmood Set for Chancellor as Reeves Is Moved
Andy Burnham is reported to be poised to name the Home Secretary, Shabana Mahmood, as his Chancellor, passing over the early favourite Ed Miliband; one source called it “nailed down”. Rachel Reeves, the outgoing Chancellor, is expected to be moved to another post, with Culture or Health said to be under consideration, and Mr Miliband is tipped for a possible switch to the Foreign Office. Mr Burnham’s team have declined to comment, and no appointments will be confirmed until he takes office on Monday.
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Widdecombe Suspect Held Under the Terrorism Act
The man arrested over the killing of Ann Widdecombe is now being held under the Terrorism Act, as Counter Terrorism Policing leads what officers describe as a targeted attack at her Devon home. A 28-year-old man from Rotherham, arrested at the weekend, was re-arrested on suspicion of the commission, preparation or instigation of acts of terrorism, and detectives have obtained a warrant to hold him for up to seven days. The Home Secretary, Shabana Mahmood, told the Commons the suspect was not known to the Prevent programme, and new security guidance for MPs is being prepared.
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Starmer Makes a Final Trip to Kyiv as the Commons Rises
Sir Keir Starmer travels to Kyiv today on his last foreign trip as Prime Minister, meeting President Zelensky to pledge that Britain’s support for Ukraine “will always endure”, days before he hands power to Andy Burnham. The visit, coming hours after a fresh Russian missile strike on the city, closes a premiership whose Ukraine record was the one part of his foreign policy to draw consistent cross-party praise. The Commons rises for its summer recess today, meaning the new Prime Minister will not face the despatch box until September.
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Heatwave Peaks Today as Hosepipe Bans Reach Eight Million Homes
Britain’s third heatwave of the year peaks on Thursday, with temperatures forecast to reach around 35C in parts of southern England and yellow heat-health alerts from the UK Health Security Agency in force until Friday evening. Forecasters warn of extreme wildfire conditions on tinder-dry ground. Water restrictions now cover more than eight million households, with fresh hosepipe bans from Cambridge Water and Affinity Water taking effect on Friday. A cooler, more unsettled spell is expected to arrive from Saturday.
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Evening Briefing
What It Means For You
- Petrol & Energy: Oil is holding around $85 a barrel as the US naval blockade of Iran bites, and the RAC says pump prices — near 151p a litre for petrol — have started climbing again after weeks of falls. The wholesale gas price that sets energy bills is exposed to the same shock.
- A New Prime Minister on Monday: Sir Keir Starmer gave his farewell PMQs today. Andy Burnham is confirmed leader unopposed and takes office on Monday 20 July, with Shabana Mahmood reported as his likely Chancellor over Ed Miliband — a signal he intends to keep Labour’s fiscal discipline rather than break with it.
- Heat, Fire & Water: The heatwave peaks on Thursday and Friday, when parts of England could reach 35–36C under amber warnings, and hosepipe bans are spreading across the south and east. Save water, avoid disposable barbecues, and check on the elderly and unwell.
GEO Geopolitical
US Steps Up Strikes on Iran and Disables First Tanker Under the Blockade
American forces launched two fresh waves of strikes on Iran on Wednesday, hitting coastal-defence and missile sites and a military barracks, and for the first time since the naval blockade resumed they disabled a ship trying to run it. US Central Command said an aircraft fired missiles into the smokestack of the Curaçao-flagged tanker Belma after it ignored warnings and headed for Kharg Island, Iran’s main oil-export terminal. Iranian officials reported casualties from the barracks strike, with at least seven troops said to have been killed. President Trump called the ceasefire “over” but suggested Tehran “do want to settle”.
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Iran Widens Its Retaliation to the Gulf States
Iran pushed its response beyond the shipping lanes, aiming missiles and drones at US-linked sites across the Gulf and drawing Washington’s partners directly into the war. Kuwait and Jordan both said they had intercepted incoming missiles and drones crossing their territory, reporting no casualties, while Bahrain — home to the US Fifth Fleet — sounded emergency sirens. The widening front raises the risk of a broader regional war, with several Arab states now under fire for hosting American forces.
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Iran Threatens to Halt All Regional Energy Exports as Oil Holds Near $85
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard threatened to cut off energy exports from the entire region, not just its own: “The export of oil and gas from the region will be either for everyone or for no one.” Brent crude held around $85 a barrel — well above pre-war levels but short of last month’s peak — as traders weighed the threat against ample spare capacity. Roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and gas passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and analysts warned prices could retest $100 if the strait’s traffic seizes up further.
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Fire Grips Fontainebleau Forest as Spain’s Wildfire Toll Reaches 13
The wildfires driven by Europe’s third heatwave burned on across the continent. In the historic Fontainebleau forest south of Paris, blazes that have destroyed more than 2,000 hectares were described as contained but not extinguished, with around 1,000 people evacuated and 850 firefighters still deployed; investigators suspect arson and have made arrests. In southern Spain, the death toll from the Almería wildfire rose to thirteen after a 93-year-old British woman died of her injuries in hospital, with around ten people still missing.
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Europe’s Air-Defence Coalition Takes Shape as Russia Strikes Kyiv
Ukraine and nine European states, Britain among them, are building a shared ballistic-missile defence for Europe, a coalition launched in Paris that will part-fund Ukraine’s home-grown “Freyja” interceptor as a low-cost rival to the Patriot. France also confirmed Ukrainian orders of Franco-Italian air-defence systems and Rafale jets. Russia answered with a fresh ballistic-missile barrage on Kyiv, starting fires in the city, and President Putin vowed retaliation “several times more powerful” for Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries and oil terminals.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Starmer Bids Farewell at His Final PMQs
Sir Keir Starmer took Prime Minister’s Questions for the last time at noon, days before handing power to Andy Burnham. He said he was “proud to leave this country in better shape than I found it”, described the moment as the end of his political journey while pledging to stay on as a backbencher, and opened on a sombre note about the killing of the former MP Ann Widdecombe, calling it “chilling” that three sitting or former members had been killed during his time in Parliament. He closed by thanking staff and civil servants, told his family in the gallery he loved them, and signed off with “Goodbye”, to a cross-party standing ovation. Kemi Badenoch warned that a change of leader was no “silver bullet” for Labour but praised his support for Ukraine.
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Burnham Confirmed as Leader-in-Waiting, PM on Monday
Andy Burnham has secured the Labour leadership unopposed, backed by the overwhelming majority of the party’s 403 MPs — well beyond the point at which any challenger could reach the threshold to stand. Nominations close on Thursday 16 July, and if no valid rival emerges a special conference is expected to confirm him, with his installation as Prime Minister set for Monday 20 July, when Sir Keir Starmer visits the King. His last potential opponent stood aside earlier in the week, clearing his path entirely.
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Mahmood Tipped for Chancellor as Burnham’s Cabinet Takes Shape
Andy Burnham is reported to be set on naming the Home Secretary, Shabana Mahmood, as his Chancellor, passing over the early favourite Ed Miliband, who is tipped instead for a possible move to the Foreign Office. His camp is said to be split — the left favouring Miliband, the right warning against unsettling business and the markets — but one source described the Mahmood choice as “nailed down”. Burnham’s team declined to comment, and no appointments will be confirmed until he takes office on Monday.
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Counter-Terror Police Lead Widdecombe Murder Inquiry
The investigation into the killing of Ann Widdecombe, the former Conservative minister and Reform UK spokesperson found dead with serious injuries at her home, has been taken over by Counter Terrorism Policing. A 28-year-old man arrested on suspicion of murder remains in custody; police believe she was attacked around a day before she was found. MPs paid tribute in the Commons earlier this week, and Sir Keir Starmer referenced her death at his final PMQs, calling on Parliament to do more to defend democracy.
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Heatwave Nears Its Peak as Hosepipe Bans Widen
Southern England reached around 33C on Wednesday as Britain’s third heatwave of the year built towards its peak, with the Met Office forecasting 35 to 36C on Thursday and Friday and the UK Health Security Agency issuing amber and yellow heat-health alerts. Water restrictions are spreading with the heat: hosepipe bans have taken effect for around a million Southern Water customers and are being extended to millions more in the east, with Cambridge Water imposing its first ban in three decades. Fire services warn of a high wildfire risk on tinder-dry ground.
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Morning Briefing
What It Means For You
- Petrol & Energy: Oil is back above $85 a barrel after the US naval blockade of Iran took hold overnight, and pump prices have already climbed back above 151p a litre. The RAC warns of further rises this week — the recent easing at the forecourt is over, and energy bills are exposed to the same shock.
- A New Prime Minister Within Days: Sir Keir Starmer takes his final PMQs at noon today before the Commons rises. Andy Burnham is confirmed leader unopposed and will be Prime Minister within days; his allies are now tipping Shabana Mahmood, not Ed Miliband, to replace Rachel Reeves as Chancellor — a signal of the fiscal direction to come.
- Heat, Fire & Water: The heatwave peaks later this week under amber extreme-heat warnings, with temperatures forecast to reach 35–36C by Thursday and Friday. Wildfires are burning across the country and hosepipe bans are spreading. Keep away from open water, ditch disposable barbecues, and save water.
GEO Geopolitical
US Blockade of Iran Takes Hold as Tankers Burn in Hormuz
The US naval blockade of Iran’s ports came into force from Tuesday evening, US Central Command said, after the interim ceasefire collapsed. Iran answered by firing cruise missiles at two supertankers, the UAE-linked al-Bahiya and Mombasa, in Omani waters at the mouth of the Strait of Hormuz, setting both ablaze; at least one crew member was killed and several others, mostly Indian, wounded. Iran also claimed retaliatory strikes on US-linked sites in Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan. Traffic through the strait has fallen to a near-standstill as owners refuse the passage.
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US Strikes Iran for a Fourth Day as Trump Threatens Power Plants
American forces struck Iran again overnight in what US Central Command called a seven-hour operation against military assets near the Strait of Hormuz and along the coast — a fourth consecutive day of bombing, after earlier hits on the Abadan refinery, Bushehr and Bandar Abbas. President Trump told Fox News the strikes would continue and that the US could target Iranian power plants and bridges next week unless Tehran returns to talks. Iran’s deputy foreign minister said the country now has “no commitments” under the June memorandum, which is effectively dead.
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Ukraine and Nine Allies Launch a European Missile-Defence Coalition
Ukraine and nine European states — Britain, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain and Sweden — announced in Paris a coalition to build a shared ballistic-missile defence for Europe, part-funding Ukraine’s home-grown “Freya” interceptor, pitched as a low-cost rival to the Patriot within a year. Hours later Russia launched a fresh ballistic-missile attack on Kyiv, and President Putin vowed retaliation “several times more powerful” for Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries and export terminals.
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Wildfires Reach the Gates of Paris as Europe’s Heat Turns Deadly
Two blazes in the Fontainebleau forest south of Paris have burned around 2,000 hectares and forced some 1,000 evacuations, with water-bombing aircraft deployed over the Paris region for the first time and two people arrested on suspicion of starting the fire. In southern Spain, one of the country’s deadliest fires has killed at least 13 people, with around ten still missing. Extreme heat is gripping France, Spain, Italy and Britain at once, straining firefighting systems built for a cooler climate.
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EU Rallies $1bn for Gaza Recovery as the Need Runs to $70bn
The European Commission has launched a “Team Gaza” initiative, rallying dozens of nations and institutions to pledge around $1bn for the early recovery of Gaza after more than two years of war. Announced at a meeting of the Palestine Donors Group in Brussels, the fund will pay for restoring water and sanitation, clearing debris and rebuilding health facilities. It falls far short of the roughly $70bn the UN, World Bank and EU estimate reconstruction will cost over a decade, and the stalled ceasefire leaves the timing uncertain.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Starmer Faces His Final PMQs as His Premiership Ends
Sir Keir Starmer holds his last Cabinet in Downing Street this morning and takes his final Prime Minister’s Questions at the despatch box at noon, before the Commons rises for the summer recess. It is his farewell Commons appearance as Prime Minister, drawing a line under a premiership ended not by the country but by his own MPs’ loss of confidence. He is expected to leave No 10 early next week, handing over to Andy Burnham after one of the swiftest transfers of power in modern British history.
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Burnham’s Coronation Confirmed as Mahmood Emerges for Chancellor
Andy Burnham’s path to No 10 is complete: backed by 369 of Labour’s 403 MPs and the only candidate, he will be confirmed leader unopposed when nominations close this week and become Prime Minister within days. Attention has turned to his cabinet. Labour whips have told colleagues they now expect Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood, not Ed Miliband, to replace Rachel Reeves as Chancellor, with Miliband tipped for the Foreign Office. Burnham’s team have declined to comment, and the full cabinet will be revealed only after he takes office.
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Heatwave Set to Peak This Week Under an Amber Alert
Britain’s third heatwave of the year is building towards its peak, with the Met Office warning temperatures could reach 35 to 36C on Thursday and Friday and an amber extreme-heat warning in force across much of England and Wales. UKHSA heat-health alerts cover seven English regions until Friday. This year has already set a record run of days above 35C, and tropical nights that stay above 20C are forecast across the south before thunderstorms are expected to break the heat towards the weekend.
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Petrol Prices Climb Again as the Gulf Shock Hits the Pumps
The escalation in the Gulf is feeding through to British forecourts. Average unleaded, which had fallen to 150.6p a litre earlier in the month, has climbed back above 151p, with diesel near 167p, and the RAC warns pump prices could rise a further couple of pence this week as the oil above $85 a barrel works through. The motoring group says the recent savings for drivers “could begin to disappear”, with the scale of any rise depending on whether the US-Iran conflict escalates further.
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Wildfires and Hosepipe Bans Spread as the Drought Bites
The heat is driving fire and water shortages across the country at once. Fire services have been tackling around 19 wildfires, with major incidents in force at Tintwistle Moor in Derbyshire, burning for some three weeks, and near Conwy Mountain in North Wales, and most of England and Wales rated at “very high” wildfire risk. Hosepipe bans are widening across southern and eastern England, with South West Water the latest company to impose restrictions, after one of the driest springs in decades left reservoirs low.