Weekly Roundup
The stories that defined this week View roundup
The Week In Numbers
- Brent crude traced the widest weekly swing of the Gulf war. It opened the week around $88 after a seventh consecutive night of US strikes on Iran, climbed to a six-week high above $100 by Thursday as the Houthis choked the Red Sea and Saudi tankers turned back, then retreated to $95.90 by Saturday’s close once Washington paused its bombing and both sides signalled talks. WTI held in the mid-$90s. The VIX spiked to 19.36 on Thursday before easing to 17.79; the American death toll from the war reached sixteen by mid-week. US airstrikes ran from a seventh night on 18 July to a thirteenth by 24 July.
- UK inflation slipped to 2.6 per cent in June, a fifteen-month low, as fuel and food costs eased — yet ten-year gilt yields touched a two-month high above 5.10 per cent, leaving Britain with the costliest borrowing in the G7. The FTSE 100 hit a five-month high of 10,717 on Wednesday before settling at 10,710, up on the week; sterling held around $1.334 and gold firmed to $4,078. Retail sales jumped in June on the warm weather and business activity reached a three-month high. The Bank of England is expected to hold Bank Rate at its meeting on Thursday.
- Andy Burnham entered Downing Street on Monday as Britain’s seventh prime minister in a decade, and within his first week scrapped VAT on domestic electricity, capped bus fares at £2, axed Sir Keir Starmer’s £2bn digital ID scheme and cut business rates for pubs and music venues. Across the Channel, wildfires forced more than 267,000 people to flee France and Spain — up from 166,000 at midweek — while a Cairngorms blaze was declared a major incident and Britain braced for a fourth heatwave with 35C alerts. A record 165 migrants crossed the Channel in a single boat.
What Moved Forward
Burnham Enters Downing Street and Launches a Cost-of-Living Blitz
DomesticAndy Burnham walked into Downing Street on Monday, vowing a “circuit-breaker for Britain” and reshaping the Cabinet at once — John Healey to the Treasury as Chancellor, Rachel Reeves and David Lammy out. Within days he had scrapped VAT on domestic electricity, capped bus fares at £2, axed Starmer’s £2bn digital ID scheme, cut business rates for pubs and music venues and stood up a “Number 10 North” in Manchester. The former mayor governs, unusually, without a Commons seat, shielded from Prime Minister’s Questions by the summer recess until September. A “Burnham bounce” narrowed Reform’s poll lead to near parity, though the new premier has ruled out a snap election.
US Halts Its Strikes on Iran as Both Sides Signal Talks
GeopoliticalAfter thirteen consecutive nights of American bombing — Tabriz, Natanz and the fortified “Pickaxe Mountain” enrichment site all struck — Washington paused its campaign by the weekend as mediated contacts resumed. Iran, which had spent the week firing back across the Gulf at bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan and Saudi Arabia, reported its first “peaceful night” and both sides confirmed indirect talks, with the Strait of Hormuz at the centre of the dispute. Trump ruled out a formal deal “for now” even as the guns fell quiet, and the Houthis’ claimed strikes on Saudi Aramco sites remained unverified. The first genuine de-escalation of the war, if it holds.
Oil Retreats Below $100 as the War-Risk Premium Unwinds
MarketsBrent crude, which had surged to a six-week high above $100 on Thursday as the Red Sea blockade bit and a Saudi tanker burned, unwound much of that spike to settle at $95.90 by Saturday once Washington halted its strikes. The FTSE 100 rebounded to 10,710 and gilts steadied as the oil panic faded; the VIX fell back from 19.36 to 17.79. Pump prices, which had jumped as crude topped $100, are expected to ease if the calm endures — a reprieve for Burnham’s cost-of-living plan, which had been squeezed by every dollar on the barrel. Markets closed the week pricing through the ceasefire signals rather than the strikes.
Inflation Falls to a Fifteen-Month Low of 2.6 Per Cent
MarketsConsumer price inflation slipped to 2.6 per cent in June, its lowest in fifteen months, as falling fuel and food costs offset stubborn services prices. Retail sales jumped over the month on the run of warm weather and a purchasing-managers’ survey showed business activity at a three-month high. The data handed the new government a rare piece of good economic news in its first week and firmed expectations that the Bank of England will hold Bank Rate on Thursday rather than resume cuts. The relief is fragile: the surge in oil through mid-week threatened to feed back into transport costs before crude retreated at the weekend.
What Stalled
The Iran War Grinds On With No Deal in Sight
GeopoliticalFor all the weekend’s de-escalation, the war remained unresolved. Trump spent the week threatening a “massive” strike, vowing to bomb a bridge or power plant for every ship hit and menacing Natanz and “Pickaxe Mountain”, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio dismissed Tehran as “not serious” about talks. A mediators’ proposal for a ten-day truce circulated early in the week but never firmed into agreement, and Trump ruled out a deal “for now” even as the strikes paused. A senior Senate Democrat branded the conflict “a war of choice”. The ceasefire is a lull, not a settlement, and the Hormuz blockade has yet to lift.
Gilt Yields Hit a Two-Month High, the Costliest in the G7
MarketsEven as inflation eased, the price of government borrowing climbed. Ten-year gilt yields pushed above 5.10 per cent at a two-month high, leaving Britain with the highest funding costs in the G7 and sterling slipping on the strain. Markets took fright early in the week at Burnham’s run of unfunded giveaways — the VAT cut, the bus-fare cap, cheaper energy bills — with economists warning the largesse points to autumn tax rises. Chancellor John Healey vowed a “fiscal buffer” to reassure the bond market, but the arithmetic of a £110bn debt-interest bill and a stalled economy leaves little room. The gilt market is the first hard constraint on the new premiership.
Russia–Ukraine Talks Falter as Zelensky Sacks His Army Chief
GeopoliticalRubio and Sergei Lavrov met in Manila to test peace hopes, but the diplomacy went nowhere as both armies traded heavy blows. Russian missiles killed ten on a grain ship off Odesa and struck a Kyiv event killing at least ten more; Ukraine answered with 400-drone raids on the Moscow region and strikes crippling Russia’s Black Sea fuel network. President Zelensky sacked his army chief after days of protests in Kyiv, and the Institute for the Study of War reported the Kremlin laying the ground for fresh mobilisation. Ukrainian civilian casualties reached a wartime record. Eighteen months of attrition show no sign of a breakthrough.
Channel Crossings Return as a Record Boat Lands
DomesticA record 165 migrants crossed the Channel in a single boat, a stark reminder that small-boat arrivals remain Burnham’s toughest political test even as overall crossings ran 41 per cent below last year. The new government has offered no fresh enforcement legislation, and the asylum question continues to divide Labour’s benches. Nigel Farage, preparing to fight a record 33 rivals in the Clacton by-election, demanded an immediate general election on the grounds that Burnham “has no mandate”. With the Commons in recess, the argument played out in the newspapers rather than the chamber — but it will not wait until September.
What To Watch Next Week
The Bank of England’s Thursday Rate Decision
MarketsThe Monetary Policy Committee meets on Thursday with markets betting on a hold at the current Bank Rate, the first policy verdict of the Burnham era. June’s fall in inflation to 2.6 per cent argues for patience; the two-month high in gilt yields and the mid-week oil spike argue against any dovish signal. The decision, and Governor Andrew Bailey’s language on the fiscal outlook, will be read closely by a bond market already nervous about the new government’s unfunded pledges. Any hint that rate cuts have been pushed further out would tighten the vice on mortgage-holders and on Healey’s promised “fiscal buffer” alike.
Whether the Iran Ceasefire Signals Hold
GeopoliticalThe weekend’s pause is the war’s first real opening for diplomacy, but it rests on indirect contacts and a Trump who has ruled out a deal “for now”. The test is whether the quiet survives contact with the Strait of Hormuz, still effectively blockaded, and with the Houthis, whose claimed strikes on Aramco sites remain unverified. A durable truce would pull Brent back towards $90 and hand Burnham a cost-of-living dividend; a single tanker attack or a resumed American strike would send crude back above $100 within a session. Watch the shipping lanes, the mediators’ language and the first oil futures to reopen on Sunday night.
Burnham’s Funding Gap and the Threat of Autumn Tax Rises
DomesticThe bill for Burnham’s first-week giveaways now comes due. Economists have warned that scrapping VAT on electricity, capping bus fares and cutting business rates — without offsetting savings — points to tax rises in an autumn Budget, even as the Prime Minister has ruled out immediate increases. Sacked Starmer loyalists have already branded the energy cut “unfunded” from the backbenches. Healey must reconcile the “cost-of-living government” framing with a £110bn debt-interest bill and the costliest borrowing in the G7. Expect the Treasury’s search for revenue — and the internal Labour argument over where it falls — to sharpen through the recess.
Europe’s Fires and Britain’s Fourth Heatwave
DomesticWith more than 267,000 people already displaced across France and Spain and EU water-bombers stretched thin, the wildfire emergency shows no sign of easing as another hot spell builds. At home, Britain braces for a fourth heatwave with temperatures near 35C and widening heat-health alerts; a Cairngorms blaze declared a major incident forced a village to flee, and hosepipe bans continue to spread as reservoirs run low. The week also brought an Essex explosion that hospitalised twenty firefighters. Watch for fresh evacuations abroad, new fire and drought warnings across England, and the strain a prolonged heatwave places on water companies such as the embattled Thames Water.
Evening Briefing
What It Means For You
- Petrol: Oil has fallen further — Brent down around 6 per cent to the high $80s — as the US–Iran truce holds and talks progress. If it lasts, petrol and diesel prices should ease over the coming weeks.
- NHS & Benefits: The Prime Minister is pressing ahead with a welfare crackdown, signalling that some benefits will become conditional — a change that could affect claimants, especially younger ones — while warning the NHS needs radical social-care reform.
- Heat: An amber heat-health alert has been issued as a fourth heatwave approaches, with temperatures forecast towards 35C this week. Check on elderly or vulnerable neighbours and take care in the heat.
GEO Geopolitical
US and Iran Report Progress in Talks as Trump Issues an Ultimatum
Mediators reported “significant” progress in indirect talks between the United States and Iran, as an American pause in air strikes held for a third day. President Trump called the negotiations “very deep” but warned they must move quickly, saying it would “either go fast or not at all” and threatening a return to “very strong military action” if they failed. Iran said it would keep its fire only while Washington held off.
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Netanyahu Flies to Washington for Talks With Trump
Prime Minister Netanyahu of Israel left for Washington under unusual secrecy for a meeting with President Trump, set for Tuesday, amid reported Iranian threats against Israeli officials. The talks are expected to range across Iran, the war in Gaza and the prospect of normalising relations with Saudi Arabia — areas where the two leaders are said to diverge. Mr Trump is due to meet President Zelensky the same day.
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Wildfires Reach the Edge of Bordeaux as Spain Declares an Emergency
Wildfires bore down on the outskirts of Bordeaux as more than 300,000 people were evacuated across France and Spain, prompting President Macron to convene an emergency meeting of his cabinet. Spain declared a national emergency and appealed for international firefighting help. Officials warned of “difficult hours ahead” as record heat showed no sign of relenting.
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Settlers Burn Mosques as Israel Raids Across the West Bank
Israeli settlers set fire to two mosques and scrawled “revenge” graffiti in the occupied West Bank, in rampages that accompanied a wide Israeli military operation across the territory. Troops raided some twenty towns, demolishing homes and detaining dozens, days after a deadly gun battle near Nablus. A group of former Israeli generals appealed to President Trump to press Mr Netanyahu to curb the settler violence.
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Ukrainian Drones Strike the Russian City of Belgorod
Ukrainian drones struck the Russian city of Belgorod, near the border, in a fresh long-range attack, footage of the strike showed. It came as Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, met his Iranian counterpart to discuss the disputed strike on an Iranian ship in the Caspian Sea. The two wars — in Ukraine and the Gulf — are increasingly entangled.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Britain Arms Ukraine’s Drones as Zelensky Visits Burnham
Britain will supply Ukraine with “Stone Cloak” electronic-warfare devices to shield its attack drones from Russian air defences, the government announced as President Zelensky became the first foreign leader to visit Andy Burnham as Prime Minister. The two met aboard a Royal Navy aircraft carrier at Portsmouth, where Mr Burnham told his guest: “I am with you 100 per cent.” They agreed to deepen defence-industrial cooperation.
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FTSE Closes at a Five-Month High as Oil Tumbles
The FTSE 100 climbed to its highest close in five months as oil tumbled on the pause in the US–Iran war, easing fears of an inflationary energy shock. London’s blue-chip index rose 0.4 per cent to around 10,780, buoyed by lower energy costs, while Brent crude fell some 6 per cent into the high $80s. The pound was steady and gilt yields eased.
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Burnham’s Welfare Crackdown Sets Up a Clash With Labour MPs
Andy Burnham’s drive to cut the welfare bill hardened into a firm commitment on Monday, with the Prime Minister signalling that some benefits will be made conditional and youth payments tightened. Having warned that morning that the NHS “will collapse” without social-care reform, he said Britain must “get really serious” about welfare. The plans set up a likely confrontation with Labour MPs.
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Minister Defends Refusing Army Help for the Cairngorms Fire
A Scottish government minister defended the decision not to call in military help for the Cairngorms wildfire, now in its thirteenth day, insisting emergency services had the resources they needed. It came after the Ministry of Defence offered helicopters and troops but acknowledged that the armed forces have no water-bombing aircraft suited to fighting major blazes. Firefighters reported continued progress.
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Amber Heat Alert Issued as a Fourth Heatwave Nears
Health authorities have issued an amber heat-health alert as Britain braces for its fourth heatwave of the summer, with temperatures forecast to reach 33 to 35C this week. The UK Health Security Agency warned of a likely rise in deaths among the elderly and vulnerable. Drought has been declared in the driest regions, deepening the wildfire risk.
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Morning Briefing
What It Means For You
- Petrol: Oil has fallen sharply — Brent down around 5 per cent to roughly $91 — after the US and Iran paused their fighting over the weekend. If the truce holds, the drop should ease the recent pressure on petrol and inflation.
- NHS & Care: The Prime Minister has warned the NHS “will collapse” without social-care reform and signalled a crackdown on sickness benefits — changes that could reshape care and welfare for millions. No timeline was given.
- Rates & Mortgages: The Bank of England is expected to hold interest rates on Thursday; the fall in oil eases the case for a rise, welcome for borrowers, though inflation risks from the Gulf war remain.
GEO Geopolitical
US Pause on Iran Holds as Tehran Warns of a Wider War
The United States held off from striking Iran for a second consecutive day, and Tehran suspended its retaliation, extending a fragile pause in a two-week war that has convulsed the Gulf. Oil tumbled around 5 per cent on renewed hopes of negotiations. Yet Iran’s army warned the conflict would “expand geographically” if Washington resumed its bombing, accusing Israel of trying to drag the United States back in.
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Israel Approves a Limited International Force for Gaza
Israel’s cabinet has approved the limited deployment of an international stabilisation force in Gaza, endorsing the territory’s demilitarisation and a Palestinian transitional administration — a notable shift in policy. The move came as Prime Minister Netanyahu prepared to fly to Washington to meet President Trump. It marks a step towards the post-war governance envisaged under the US-brokered ceasefire.
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Russia and Ukraine Trade Overnight Strikes, Killing Ten
At least ten people were killed as Russia and Ukraine exchanged strikes overnight. Ukrainian officials said Russian drones killed six, including a child, at a supermarket in Chernihiv, while Moscow said Ukrainian strikes had killed four on its side. Ukraine also struck Russian logistics targets deep behind the front, part of its sustained campaign against the enemy’s war economy.
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Trump Shares Fake AI Images of Strikes and Denies an Ammo Shortage
President Trump posted artificial-intelligence-generated images on social media overnight depicting American jets destroying an Iranian oil terminal, captioning one seized-tanker picture “It’s Our Oil Tanker now!”. Separately, he denied to the Wall Street Journal that a shortage of munitions was constraining the US campaign against Iran. The posts came during the pause in actual strikes.
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Ebola Surges in DR Congo, Killing More Than 1,400
An Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo has surged past 3,200 cases and 1,405 deaths, health authorities say, with around a thousand new infections in the past ten days. The outbreak, the country’s seventeenth, has spread across five provinces, with the eastern Ituri region accounting for the bulk of cases. There is no approved vaccine or treatment for the strain involved.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Burnham Warns the NHS Will Collapse and Signals a Welfare Crackdown
The Prime Minister has warned that the NHS “will collapse” without radical reform of social care, pledging to spend his “political capital” on fixing it, in a set-piece BBC interview. Andy Burnham also signalled a crackdown on sickness and incapacity benefits, saying Britain must “get really serious” about cutting a rising welfare bill. He gave no timeline for the social-care overhaul.
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Zelensky Becomes the First Leader to Visit Burnham as PM
President Zelensky of Ukraine is to become the first foreign leader to visit Andy Burnham since he became Prime Minister, meeting him at a British naval base. Mr Burnham pledged “continued support” for Kyiv, signalling that Britain’s backing will endure under his government. The visit underscores Ukraine’s place at the top of the Prime Minister’s foreign-policy in-tray.
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Oil Slides and the FTSE Rallies as the Iran Truce Holds
Oil fell sharply and London shares were set to rally as the pause in the US–Iran war took hold, unwinding the war-risk premium that had driven crude towards $100. Brent dropped around 5 per cent to roughly $91 a barrel, and the pound firmed above $1.33. The retreat eases the inflationary threat that had loomed over the Bank of England ahead of its rate decision on Thursday.
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Cairngorms Fire Burns Into Day 13 as a Fourth Heatwave Looms
The wildfire in the Cairngorms burned into its thirteenth day, with firefighters reporting “welcome progress” but warning that a fourth heatwave forecast for this week could raise the risk of fresh blazes. The Ministry of Defence has offered helicopters and troops to support the effort. Temperatures are expected to climb towards 35C in the coming days.
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Bev Craig Leads the Race to Succeed Burnham in Manchester
Labour’s Bev Craig, the leader of Manchester City Council, has emerged as the frontrunner to succeed Andy Burnham as mayor of Greater Manchester, the post he vacated on becoming Prime Minister. A by-election for the high-profile mayoralty is expected in the autumn. Whoever wins inherits a role Mr Burnham used to build a national platform.
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Evening Briefing
What It Means For You
- Petrol & Prices: The US pause on Iran strikes held and talks are under way, easing some pressure on oil — but the Gulf war is not over, and a new front has opened with Iran threatening Ukraine. Markets reopen Monday; pump prices remain high.
- Travel: Wildfires have now displaced more than 360,000 people across France and Spain. If you are holidaying there, check official advice, follow evacuation orders, and expect further extreme heat.
- Your Region: The Prime Minister has floated electoral reform and giving city mayors a share of income tax — part of a push to shift power and money out of Westminster. Watch how it might affect your area.
GEO Geopolitical
Iran Threatens Ukraine After a Strike on a Caspian Ship
Iran has warned Ukraine that an attack on an Iranian commercial vessel in the Caspian Sea “cannot go unanswered”, opening a startling new front in the widening Gulf war. The foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, summoned Ukraine’s envoy and accused Kyiv of acting “at Israel’s behest” — a claim Ukraine did not confirm and which could not be independently verified. Tehran promised a response.
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US Pause Holds as Oman Brokers Talks on Hormuz
The American pause in strikes on Iran held through Sunday, as Oman-mediated talks on reopening the Strait of Hormuz were reported to be making progress. A senior Iranian source said Tehran would hold its fire so long as Washington did the same, in an unofficial halt-for-halt. President Trump’s team said he was giving diplomacy “some space”, though American forces continued to mass in the region.
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Wildfires Displace More Than 360,000 in France and Spain
The number of people driven from their homes by wildfires in France and Spain has passed 360,000, as fires burned beyond containment in a fourth week of extreme heat. France, which has evacuated some 250,000 people, has mounted what officials call its largest peacetime evacuation, while Spain, under a national emergency, has moved more than 116,000 from around Madrid and beyond. Temperatures have topped 40C.
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Israeli Strike Kills a Senior Hamas Officer in Gaza
An Israeli air strike on a vehicle in Gaza killed two Hamas security officials on Sunday, among them Brigadier General Abdel-Nasser al-Maqadma, described as the head of Hamas’s police in the north of the territory. The Israeli military said several of those killed had taken part in the 7 October 2023 attacks. It was the latest strike to test a fragile ceasefire.
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Car Rams the Berlin Pride Parade; Suspect Shot Dead
A car was driven into the Berlin Pride parade on Sunday, and police shot dead the suspect, a 21-year-old man. The motive was not immediately clear, and the number of people hurt was still being established as an investigation began. The attack cast a pall over one of Europe’s largest celebrations of LGBT rights.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Burnham Signals Electoral Reform and Tax Powers for Mayors
Andy Burnham has signalled a shift towards electoral reform, saying compulsory voting was “on the table”, and floated giving England’s city mayors a share of income-tax revenue, in interviews marking his first weekend as Prime Minister. The proposals, trailed after his appearance on the BBC, point to a devolutionary, reforming instinct as he seeks to define his government.
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RAF Chinooks Offered as the Cairngorms Fire Enters Day 12
The Ministry of Defence has offered Chinook helicopters and troops to help fight the Cairngorms wildfire as it entered its twelfth day, after Scotland’s First Minister, John Swinney, requested military support. Firefighters reported “welcome progress” and evacuated residents of Nethy Bridge were allowed home, but crews cautioned that the blaze was not yet under control.
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Teenager Charged Over the Record Channel Crossing
A teenager has been charged in connection with the record small-boat crossing of the Channel, in which 165 migrants reached Dover in a single vessel last week. Prosecutors accuse the Sudanese youth of piloting the overcrowded “mega dinghy”. It is the first charge arising from the record arrival, which has intensified pressure on the government over migration.
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North-South Life-Expectancy Gap Widens, Study Finds
The gap in life expectancy between the north and south of England has widened, according to research reported on Sunday, underscoring the entrenched regional inequalities Andy Burnham has pledged to tackle. People in the poorest northern areas can expect to live several years fewer than those in the affluent south, with the divide having grown over the past decade.
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Miliband Puts Climate at the Centre of Foreign Policy
Ed Miliband has argued that climate change and global development should sit “at the heart” of Britain’s foreign policy, in an intervention setting out priorities for the Burnham government’s approach to the world. The remarks signal continuity in Labour’s green agenda even as ministers weigh politically fraught decisions on North Sea oil.
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Morning Briefing
What It Means For You
- Travel: If you are holidaying in France or Spain, wildfires have forced hundreds of thousands from their homes and closed roads and rail. Check official advice before travelling and follow evacuation instructions.
- Petrol: The US has paused its strikes on Iran and talks are under way, easing some pressure on oil, but the Gulf war is not over. With markets closed for the weekend, any price effect will show on Monday; pump prices remain high.
- Heat & Water: A fourth heatwave is forecast next week, with temperatures up to 35C and renewed wildfire risk, while more than 23 million people remain under hosepipe bans. Plan for the heat and check on vulnerable neighbours.
GEO Geopolitical
Settlers Torch Two Mosques in an Overnight West Bank Rampage
Israeli settlers set fire to two mosques in the occupied West Bank overnight and daubed “revenge” graffiti on their walls, in a fresh wave of rampages that also saw Palestinians attacked and cars torched. The violence followed a deadly gun battle near Nablus on Friday, and the Israeli military said its troops had arrived too late to arrest those responsible. Dozens of Palestinians were detained in overnight raids.
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Typhoon Noul Forces Mass Evacuations in Southern China
Typhoon Noul battered southern China and Hong Kong overnight, bringing fierce winds and torrential rain and forcing the evacuation of more than 700,000 people. Hundreds of flights were cancelled and coastal defences tested as the storm made landfall. Authorities across Guangdong and neighbouring provinces suspended work, schools and transport.
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US Pause on Iran Strikes Holds as Diplomacy Gains Space
The United States refrained from striking Iran for a second night, sustaining a pause that has opened the first real space for diplomacy in a fortnight of war. Iran again reported “a peaceful night”, and both sides indicated they were exchanging messages through mediators. President Trump’s envoy to the United Nations said the President was giving peace talks “some space”.
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Hundreds of Thousands Flee Wildfires in France and Spain
Wildfires raging across France and Spain have driven hundreds of thousands of people from their homes, as a punishing heatwave pushes temperatures above 40C. France has mounted what may be its largest peacetime evacuation, and Spain has declared a national emergency, with fires burning beyond containment in places. Water-bombing aircraft have been drawn from across the European Union.
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Romania Downs a Russian Drone and Summons Moscow’s Envoy
Romania scrambled a fighter jet to shoot down a suspected Russian drone that had entered its airspace, and summoned Moscow’s ambassador in protest, in the latest spillover of the Ukraine war onto Nato territory. It was said to be the third such incursion into Romanian skies. The alliance has repeatedly complained of Russian drones straying across its eastern frontier.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Burnham Vows to Stand Up to Trump and Rules Out Early Poll
In his first major broadcast interview as Prime Minister, Andy Burnham said he was prepared to “stand up to President Trump” and to disagree with him publicly “if it’s right for Britain”, while declining to say he trusted the American president. Speaking on the BBC’s Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg, Mr Burnham also ruled out calling an early general election, saying he did not believe the public wanted one.
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Cairngorms Residents Return as Crews Gain Ground on the Fire
Residents evacuated from the village of Nethy Bridge were allowed to return home overnight as firefighters reported “welcome progress” against the large wildfire in the Cairngorms, which was declared a major incident on Saturday. Scotland’s First Minister, John Swinney, who called it a “very serious situation”, has asked the UK government for military support. Crews warned the blaze was not yet under control.
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Met Police Investigate Reform Donations Linked to Tice
The Metropolitan Police have opened an investigation into donations to Reform UK from a company controlled by Richard Tice, a senior figure in the party, following reporting by the Guardian. The inquiry adds to scrutiny of the party’s funding as it rides high in the polls. Mr Tice dismissed the coverage as a “hit piece”.
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Britain Braces for a Fourth Heatwave Next Week
Britain is forecast to face its fourth heatwave of the summer next week, with temperatures expected to climb to between 33 and 35C, after a cooler, showery lull this weekend. The Met Office warned of renewed wildfire risk and heat-health concerns, with alerts likely for parts of England. It caps a summer of repeated extremes.
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Channel Crossings Continue Through the Weekend
Small-boat crossings of the Channel continued over the weekend, days after a record 165 migrants arrived in a single vessel, keeping migration at the top of the new government’s in-tray. The crossings, the first sustained arrivals since Andy Burnham became Prime Minister, underline the scale of a challenge he has promised to tackle. Ministers face mounting pressure to show results.
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Evening Briefing
What It Means For You
- Heat & Fire: Britain faces a fourth heatwave next week, with temperatures near 35C and fresh heat-health alerts, as wildfires flare from the Cairngorms to southern Europe. Check on elderly or vulnerable neighbours and heed local warnings.
- Petrol: Yemen’s Houthis say they have struck Saudi oil sites, and the US–Iran war continues, keeping a risk premium on oil. With markets closed for the weekend, any price effect will show on Monday; pump prices remain elevated.
- Travel: If you are holidaying in France or Spain, wildfires have forced more than 267,000 people from their homes and closed roads and rail. Check official advice before travelling and follow evacuation instructions.
GEO Geopolitical
Wildfires Force More Than 267,000 to Flee France and Spain
Wildfires have forced more than 267,000 people from their homes across France and Spain, in what may be France’s largest peacetime evacuation, as a relentless heatwave and record blazes overwhelm firefighters. Around 197,000 have fled in France and some 70,000 near Madrid, with fires burning beyond containment in places. No deaths have been reported, though dozens of French firefighters have been injured.
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Houthis Say They Struck Saudi Aramco Oil Sites
Yemen’s Houthis said they had fired dozens of missiles and drones at Saudi Aramco oil facilities in Jizan and Yanbu on Saturday, opening a new front against the kingdom in the widening Gulf war. Civil-defence sirens sounded in both provinces and smoke was reported over the Jizan refinery, though Saudi authorities gave an all-clear and Aramco did not confirm any damage. The Iran-aligned group has attacked Saudi and Red Sea shipping for weeks.
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US Halts Its Strikes on Iran as Both Sides Signal Talks
The United States paused its bombing of Iran overnight for the first time in nearly two weeks, and both sides signalled a willingness to negotiate. Iran reported “a peaceful night” after thirteen consecutive nights of American strikes, while President Trump said Tehran was “talking to us right now” and that he was “willing to listen”. Messages have reportedly been exchanged through mediators.
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At Least Eleven Killed as Russia and Ukraine Trade Strikes
At least eleven people were killed in strikes across Ukraine and Russian-held territory on Saturday. Russian-appointed officials said a Ukrainian strike on a holiday camp at Kyrylivka, on the occupied Azov coast, had killed eight people, including two children, and wounded fourteen. In the Ukrainian region of Sumy, three delivery couriers were killed by a Russian drone. Romania scrambled a fighter jet to down a drone that breached its airspace.
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Israeli Settlers Set Up New Outposts After Deadly Clash
Israeli settlers established four new outposts in the occupied West Bank overnight, a day after a gun battle near the village of Tell killed two Israeli soldiers and four Palestinians. The Israeli military said it had arrested more than seventy wanted Palestinians in raids across the territory, while groups of settlers entered Tell for what they called a “hike”. It was among the most turbulent days in the West Bank in weeks.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Cairngorms Wildfire Declared a Major Incident as a Village Flees
A large wildfire in the Cairngorms National Park was declared a major incident by police on Saturday, forcing the evacuation of hundreds of residents and an entire village near Nethy Bridge. Fire crews battled the blaze into the afternoon amid tinder-dry conditions and a summer of record heat. Scotland’s First Minister, John Swinney, called it a “very serious situation”.
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Twenty Firefighters in Hospital After an Essex Explosion
Twenty firefighters were taken to hospital after a large explosion and blaze at an industrial site in Essex, near Rettendon, believed to have involved fertiliser. More than a hundred firefighters were deployed and three fire engines were destroyed, though no deaths have been reported. Residents nearby were evacuated as crews brought the fire under control.
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Burnham Rules Out a Snap Election and an Independence Vote
Andy Burnham used his first weekend as Prime Minister to rule out both a snap general election and a second Scottish independence referendum, vowing to govern to Labour’s 2024 manifesto. On a visit to Scotland, where he met the First Minister, John Swinney, Mr Burnham pledged to “tackle the cost-of-living crisis faced by Scots and give them hope”. He is due to be interviewed on television on Sunday.
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Record 165 Migrants Cross the Channel in a Single Boat
A record 165 migrants crossed the Channel to Dover in a single vessel, a so-called “mega dinghy”, as small-boat arrivals continued into the weekend — the first crossings since Andy Burnham became Prime Minister. The figure, the highest recorded for one boat, underscores the scale of the challenge confronting the new government, which has made stopping the crossings a priority.
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Britain Braces for a Fourth Heatwave as Alerts Widen
Britain is bracing for its fourth heatwave of the summer next week, with temperatures forecast to peak around 35C. Fresh heat-health alerts have been issued for parts of England, warning of risks to the elderly and vulnerable, as wildfires flare from the Cairngorms to the south. The heat compounds a summer that has already brought the driest spring on record and widespread hosepipe bans.
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Morning Briefing
What It Means For You
- Petrol & Energy: Oil eased back below $100 a barrel on Friday, with Brent around $96, relieving the immediate pump-price scare — but the war-risk premium could return quickly if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is hit again.
- Interest Rates: The Bank of England sets rates on Thursday. A hold at 3.75 per cent is widely expected, though the oil spike has led markets to price in two rate rises by March 2027, which would bear on mortgages and savings.
- Water Bills: Thames Water, which serves around 16 million customers, has asked the regulator for another increase in household charges — a fresh squeeze as ministers weigh the future of the debt-laden sector.
GEO Geopolitical
Trump Rules Out Iran Deal ‘For Now’ as Strikes Continue
President Trump dampened hopes of an early truce with Iran overnight, telling the White House Correspondents’ dinner “I don’t think it’s time yet” for a deal, though he was “willing to listen”. His remarks came as US Central Command completed a further night of strikes and Mr Netanyahu’s office confirmed the Israeli premier would visit the White House on Tuesday, his seventh trip of Mr Trump’s second term.
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US Fires on Tanker Running Iran’s Hormuz Blockade
American forces disabled a tanker in the Gulf after its crew repeatedly tried to breach Iran’s blockade of a port, US Central Command said. “We disabled the tanker after the crew attempted to run the blockade at least four times prior,” said Navy Captain Tim Hawkins, adding that the ship was stopped by firing into its engine room after repeated warnings. The vessel was not named.
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Wildfires Force 166,000 to Flee Across France and Spain
More than 166,000 people have been evacuated across France and Spain as wildfires rage near Bordeaux and Madrid, with Spain declaring a national emergency and President Macron ordering the army to help contain what officials called the worst fire France has known. Around 141,000 have fled in south-western France and some 25,000 in the Madrid region, where merged blazes near Madrid and Ávila displaced tens of thousands.
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Russia and Ukraine Trade Strikes as Blackout Hits Chernihiv
A Russian attack on an energy facility around the northern Ukrainian city of Chernihiv cut power to about 150,000 people, as the two sides pressed a relentless exchange of long-range strikes. It followed a rare daytime Russian ballistic strike on a defence-industry gathering in the Kyiv region that killed at least ten and wounded more than a hundred. Kyiv struck back at a missile-components plant in the Russian city of Kirov.
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West Bank Settler Rampages Follow Deadly Nablus Clashes
Israeli settlers rampaged through villages across the occupied West Bank on Friday and into Saturday, according to reports, hours after four Palestinians and two Israeli soldiers were killed in a gun battle near Nablus that prompted a wide Israeli operation. Some 86 Palestinians have been killed across the territory this year as violence surges alongside the wider regional war.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Trump Cheers Burnham’s North Sea Drilling Amid Green Backlash
President Trump has seized on reports that Andy Burnham may fast-track North Sea oil and gas, declaring that people in Aberdeen were “dancing in the streets” and that drilling would turn Britain “from a Poverty Stricken Disaster, to one of the Richest Countries anywhere in the World”. Downing Street has not confirmed any change of policy, and the decision on the Rosebank and Jackdaw fields rests with the Energy Secretary, Miatta Fahnbulleh.
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‘Burnham Bounce’ Narrows Reform’s Lead in the Polls
Labour has closed much of the gap on Reform UK since Andy Burnham entered Downing Street, according to a run of recent surveys. Survation’s final poll under Sir Keir Starmer put the two parties level on 24 per cent each, Labour’s largest single jump since the 2024 election. Ipsos found Mr Burnham favoured as prime minister by 30 per cent against 16 per cent for Nigel Farage.
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Bank of England Set to Hold Rates on Thursday
The Bank of England is widely expected to leave interest rates at 3.75 per cent when the Monetary Policy Committee reports on Thursday, with markets putting the probability of no change at around 86 per cent. The decision comes after a bruising week for oil and bonds, though firmer retail sales and business-activity data late in the week steadied sterling and gilts.
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Thames Water Seeks Fresh Bill Rise as Burnham Vows Reform
Thames Water has applied to the regulator, Ofwat, to raise household charges again, presenting an early dilemma for a prime minister who has promised to ease the cost of living and overhaul the water sector. Britain’s largest water company, serving around 16 million customers, has been struggling under a heavy debt burden and repeated questions over its finances.
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Small-Boat Arrivals Remain Burnham’s Toughest Political Test
Immigration remains the sharpest challenge facing the new government, and the issue on which Reform UK has built its lead. Around 36,000 people arrived by small boat in the year to the end of May, about 13 per cent fewer than a year earlier, according to House of Commons Library figures, but the crossings continue to dominate the political argument through the summer.
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Evening Briefing
What It Means For You
- Petrol & Prices: Oil fell back below $100 a barrel on Friday, easing the immediate inflation scare, though pump prices remain elevated after this week’s spike. The Bank of England sets interest rates on 30 July.
- Your Money: Reassuring UK data — a jump in retail sales and stronger business activity — lifted the FTSE and steadied borrowing costs, with markets still expecting the Bank to hold rates next week.
- Pubs & the High Street: Business rates for pubs, clubs and music venues will be cut by 20 per cent, worth around £100m, funded by a planned levy on large online retailers — part of the government’s cost-of-living push.
GEO Geopolitical
Spain Declares Emergency as Wildfires Force Tens of Thousands to Flee
Spain declared a national emergency on Friday as wildfires raged across the country, while on the French Atlantic coast fresh mass evacuations drove holidaymakers from their homes — some fleeing by boat. Together the fires in Spain and south-western France have forced tens of thousands to flee, with both governments requesting help from fellow European Union states. Temperatures reached 44C in southern Spain.
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Iran Strikes US Gulf Bases as Trump Weighs a Bigger Attack
Iran launched retaliatory strikes on Friday against American military targets in the Gulf, including the Al-Azraq air base in Jordan, as Bahrain and Kuwait reported intercepting Iranian missiles. President Trump said he was “close to making a decision” on “a massive attack… bigger than ever before”, but had not ordered one. It followed a thirteenth night of American strikes and Iran’s rejection of a US ceasefire proposal.
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Oil Retreats Below $100 as the War-Risk Premium Unwinds
Brent crude fell back below $100 a barrel on Friday, sliding around 4 per cent to roughly $96, as traders unwound part of the war-risk premium that had driven it above $100 on Thursday for the first time in two months. The pullback offered a measure of relief, though oil remained on course for a weekly gain of about 10 per cent as the US–Iran war ground on.
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Russian Strike on a Kyiv Event Kills 10 as Both Sides Trade Blows
A Russian missile strike on a defence-industry gathering in the Kyiv region killed at least ten people and wounded more than a hundred on Friday, Ukrainian officials said, in one of the deadliest attacks of recent weeks. Ukraine struck back deep inside Russia, hitting an arms factory in Kirov, some 1,200km from the border, killing six. It was a bloody day on a front that has barely moved.
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Six Killed in West Bank Gunfight as Israel Raids Nablus
Six people were killed in a gun battle in the occupied West Bank on Friday, among them four Palestinians and two Israeli soldiers, after which Israel launched a wide operation around Nablus. The clash, near the village of Tell, was followed by reprisal raids by Israeli settlers that wounded seven Palestinians, according to local sources. It marks one of the deadliest days in the territory in weeks.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Burnham Launches ‘Number 10 North’ in Manchester
Andy Burnham marked the end of his first week as Prime Minister by launching “Number 10 North”, relocating devolution and local-growth policy functions to Manchester. Working from an interim headquarters in the city, Mr Burnham called it “the nerve centre of a rewired Britain” and “not a gimmick”, insisting the shift would bring government closer to the regions. He described it as “the best day of my life”.
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Burnham Cuts Business Rates for Pubs and Music Venues
The government has announced a 20 per cent cut in business rates for pubs, clubs and grassroots music venues across England, a package worth around £100m, in its latest high-street and cost-of-living measure. Ministers indicated the relief would be funded by a new levy on large online retailers, framing it as shifting the burden from struggling hospitality to “big ecommerce”. The trade gave the move a cautious welcome.
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FTSE Rebounds and Gilts Steady as the Oil Panic Fades
London’s FTSE 100 recovered on Friday, rising around 0.7 per cent to about 10,710, as oil’s retreat from $100 eased the previous day’s inflation scare. Banks led the gains, with HSBC among the risers, while government bond yields dipped and the pound firmed towards $1.334. The rebound clawed back much of Thursday’s sharp, oil-driven sell-off.
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Business Activity Hits a Three-Month High, Survey Shows
British private-sector activity grew at its fastest pace in three months in July, a closely watched business survey indicated on Friday, a further sign that the economy is holding up. The S&P Global flash survey pointed to the first expansion in three months, with firms reporting easing cost pressures, helped by summer spending and the warm weather. The pound firmed on the improved picture.
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Ministers Pressed to Award £2.4bn Satellite Deal to Airbus
The government is under pressure to award a £2.4bn military satellite contract to Airbus rather than an American rival, in a decision that pits industrial sovereignty against the transatlantic relationship, according to reporting on Friday. Supporters of the European bid argue that Britain’s secure communications should not depend on a foreign supplier, particularly amid strains with Washington over defence and energy.
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Morning Briefing
What It Means For You
- Petrol & Inflation: Oil is holding near $100 a barrel as the US–Iran war grinds on, keeping petrol close to 156p a litre and threatening to push inflation back above 3 per cent. The Bank of England sets interest rates on 30 July.
- Your Money: Retail sales rose 1 per cent in June as warm weather boosted spending — a rare bright spot — but UK borrowing costs hit a two-month high, with markets now betting on rate rises rather than cuts, which would lift mortgage costs.
- NHS & Heat: Resident doctors begin a five-day strike on Saturday, risking cancelled operations and appointments, while an amber heat alert covers much of England this weekend — check on elderly or vulnerable neighbours.
GEO Geopolitical
US Strikes Iran for a 13th Night as Trump Vows More Pain
American forces bombed Iran for a thirteenth consecutive night, US Central Command said, striking command centres, drone sites and coastal targets around Bandar Abbas and Khuzestan. Iranian authorities said at least four people were killed and five injured in an overnight strike near Ahvaz. President Trump signalled no let-up, telling Axios that Tehran “haven’t received enough pain yet” and that he was weighing “a massive attack… bigger than ever before”.
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Oil Holds Near $100 as the Gulf War Grinds On
Brent crude held close to $100 a barrel on Friday, easing only slightly after surging past that level on Thursday for the first time since May, and remains up around 13 per cent on the week. The retreat was modest: prices stay elevated as Houthi attacks on Red Sea tankers and nightly American strikes on Iran keep a hefty risk premium on oil. US pump prices have climbed above $4 a gallon.
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Wildfires and Record Heat Grip Spain and France
Wildfires continued to rage across Spain and France on Friday as a punishing heatwave pushed temperatures towards 44C, with thousands evacuated. A blaze in Spain’s Guadalajara region, one of the country’s largest on record, has consumed some 32,000 hectares north of Madrid, emptying dozens of hamlets, while fires in south-western France have forced holidaymakers from coastal campsites and killed two firefighters this week.
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Kremlin Lays Ground for Mobilisation, War Institute Says
Russia is preparing the ground for a fresh wave of mobilisation and bracing for possible domestic unrest, the Institute for the Study of War has assessed, even as President Putin plays down a worsening fuel-shortage crisis. The Washington think tank said the Kremlin was setting the political conditions to call up more troops, a sign Moscow expects a long war despite renewed diplomatic contacts. Ukraine, meanwhile, has continued a shake-up of its military command.
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Israel Strikes Gaza After Fresh Displacement Orders
Israel bombarded parts of Gaza on Friday after issuing new displacement orders, killing at least two Palestinians, according to medical sources cited by Al Jazeera, in the latest strain on a US-brokered ceasefire in place since October. Strikes hit homes in the Bureij and Jabalia refugee camps and the Zeitoun and Tal al-Hawa districts of Gaza City. The truce has held only loosely, with near-daily Israeli operations.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Retail Sales Jump in June as the Warm Weather Lifts Spending
British retail sales rose by 1 per cent in June, official figures showed on Friday, comfortably beating forecasts as the second-warmest June on record drew shoppers out and summer promotions lifted demand. The Office for National Statistics said sales volumes were 4.2 per cent higher than a year earlier, led by clothing and online retailers. It is a rare piece of good economic news for Andy Burnham’s government amid the oil-price squeeze.
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Gilt Yields Hit a Two-Month High as Markets Bet on Rate Rises
British borrowing costs pushed higher again on Friday, with the ten-year gilt yield reaching around 5.1 per cent, a two-month high, as the oil-driven inflation scare prompted traders to bet on interest-rate rises rather than cuts. The reversal, days before the Bank of England’s decision on 30 July, threatens to raise the cost of Mr Burnham’s spending plans and to feed through to mortgages. Sterling slipped towards $1.33.
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Resident Doctors Poised to Strike as Last-Ditch Talks Continue
Tens of thousands of resident doctors in England are due to begin a five-day strike at 7am on Saturday, even as the British Medical Association and the Health Secretary, Wes Streeting, report “constructive” but unresolved talks. The government has offered a 5.4 per cent rise for this year; the union says pay has fallen roughly a fifth in real terms since 2008. Hospital leaders warn of widespread cancellations.
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Amber Heat Alert Covers Much of England This Weekend
An amber heat-health alert came into force across much of southern and central England on Friday morning and will run until Sunday, as a fresh heatwave builds. Issued by the UK Health Security Agency with the Met Office, the alert covers six regions and warns of a likely rise in deaths among the elderly and vulnerable. It is the same warm spell credited with lifting June’s retail sales.
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Labour Narrows Reform’s Lead as Burnham Settles In
Labour has closed much of the gap on Reform UK since Andy Burnham became Prime Minister, polling suggests, though Reform still holds a narrow lead. A YouGov survey put Reform on 23 per cent, the Conservatives on 21 and Labour on 20 — the closest the parties have been in a year. Mr Burnham is also the public’s preferred prime minister, according to Ipsos, ahead of Nigel Farage and Kemi Badenoch.
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Evening Briefing
What It Means For You
- Petrol & Bills: Oil has broken $100 a barrel for the first time since May, driving petrol up around 5p to 155.6p a litre and diesel up 8p, according to the RAC. Pump and energy costs look set to rise further, threatening the recent fall in inflation.
- Savings & Mortgages: UK borrowing costs hit a two-month high, with thirty-year gilt yields near 5.75 per cent, even as the Chancellor pledged fiscal discipline. Higher yields feed through to mortgage and loan rates. The Bank of England decides on rates on 30 July.
- NHS & Appointments: Resident doctors will strike for five days from 25 July, risking cancellations of operations and appointments even as waiting lists fall to a two-year low. Check before travelling for planned hospital care.
GEO Geopolitical
Trump Threatens a ‘Massive’ Strike on Iran as Oil Tops $100
President Trump has threatened “major military punishment” against Iran and told Axios he is weighing “a massive attack… bigger than ever before”, after Yemen’s Houthis struck a second Saudi oil tanker in the Red Sea. Brent crude vaulted above $100 a barrel for the first time since May, settling around $100.70 — up some 7 per cent on the day and roughly 30 per cent across July. The Saudi tanker Layla was hit hours after the Encelia.
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US Presses Its Strikes as Iran Claims Hits on Gulf Bases
American forces pressed on with their bombing of Iran, with US Central Command reporting fresh strikes on “maritime capabilities, missile and drone storage facilities, coastal surveillance sites and air-defence assets”. Two people were killed and eleven injured at Shalamcheh, near the Iraqi border, and a power substation beside the Bushehr nuclear plant was hit, causing outages. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard claimed retaliatory strikes on American bases in Kuwait and Jordan.
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Rubio and Lavrov Meet in Manila to Test Ukraine Peace Hopes
The US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, met Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, on the sidelines of an Asean gathering in Manila for just over half an hour, though the encounter produced no breakthrough. Mr Rubio said Washington was “prepared to play a constructive role in bringing about an end to a senseless war”. Moscow said Mr Lavrov had “reaffirmed Russia’s readiness for a political and diplomatic settlement”.
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Two Firefighters Die as Wildfires Sweep Southern Europe
Two firefighters have been killed battling a wildfire near Bordeaux in south-western France, where more than 10,000 holidaymakers were evacuated from campsites, as an intense heatwave drives temperatures above 40C across the Mediterranean. Fires are burning through France, Spain and Italy; Spain’s Guadalajara blaze has consumed some 32,000 hectares, and Italy has mobilised thousands to fight dozens of blazes.
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Saudi Arabia Halts Some Red Sea Oil as the Blockade Bites
Saudi Arabia has suspended some of its Red Sea oil shipments after Houthi attacks on two of its tankers, with at least five vessels reversing course, deepening the disruption to global energy trade. The Iran-aligned Houthis have declared a blockade of the strategic Bab el-Mandeb strait, opening a second front alongside the throttled Strait of Hormuz. Maritime authorities reported a tanker ablaze some 70 nautical miles off the Saudi coast, its crew unharmed.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Healey Vows a ‘Fiscal Buffer’ as Gilt Yields Hit a Two-Month High
The Chancellor, John Healey, has used his first big set-piece in the City to pledge disciplined public finances, telling executives at Bloomberg’s London headquarters that he would meet the government’s fiscal rules “with a buffer against uncertainty”. Markets were unmoved: the thirty-year gilt yield climbed towards 5.75 per cent, a two-month high, and the ten-year held above 5 per cent, keeping British borrowing costs the dearest in the G7.
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Oil at $100 Sends the FTSE Lower and Rattles Global Markets
London’s FTSE 100 fell 78 points, or 0.7 per cent, to close at 10,639, retreating from a five-month high as oil’s surge above $100 a barrel stoked fears of renewed inflation. The sell-off was sharper on Wall Street, where the S&P 500 dropped 1.2 per cent and the Nasdaq more than 2 per cent, dragged down by heavy falls in Alphabet and Tesla after disappointing earnings. Gold slid around 2 per cent and volatility jumped.
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Pump Prices Jump as $100 Oil Squeezes Burnham’s Cost-of-Living Plan
The surge in oil has begun to bite at the forecourt, with petrol rising around 5p to 155.6p a litre and diesel up 8p to 172.1p, according to the RAC, threatening the centrepiece of Andy Burnham’s cost-of-living agenda. The RAC’s Simon Williams said fuel prices were “shooting up like a rocket on the back of oil being above $90”. The Prime Minister spent Thursday promoting cheaper bills even as the war pushed them the other way.
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Resident Doctors to Strike for Five Days as Waiting Lists Fall
Tens of thousands of resident doctors in England will stage a five-day strike from 25 July after rejecting the government’s pay offer, the British Medical Association has confirmed. The walkout, over a demand to restore pay eroded since 2008, threatens widespread cancellations of operations and appointments. The Health Secretary, Wes Streeting, urged the union to call it off, pointing to NHS waiting lists that have fallen to their lowest level since early 2023.
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Heat Alerts and Hosepipe Bans Widen as the Summer Bakes On
A fresh Thames Water hosepipe ban took effect across London on Thursday, extending restrictions that now cover more than 23 million people, as amber heat-health alerts remained in force across much of England. This year has become the first on record to see temperatures reach 35C in each of May, June and July. Water companies say prolonged heat and the driest spring on record have left reservoirs and rivers depleted.
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Morning Briefing
What It Means For You
- Petrol & Bills: Oil has surged above $95 a barrel — a six-week high — as the Gulf war chokes shipping, threatening to push petrol and diesel prices back up just as UK inflation had eased to a 15-month low of 2.6 per cent. Forecourt costs could rise within weeks.
- Your Water: Around 23 million people in England are now under hosepipe bans after Thames Water restricted its ten million customers, following the driest spring on record. Expect tighter curbs on watering gardens and washing cars as reservoirs run low.
- Mortgages & Savings: UK borrowing costs remain the highest in the G7, with ten-year gilt yields near 5 per cent and the pound below $1.34, as markets question how the government’s giveaways will be funded. The Bank of England is expected to hold rates on 30 July.
GEO Geopolitical
US Bombs Iran for a Twelfth Night as Oil Spikes Anew
American forces struck Iran for a twelfth consecutive night, US Central Command said, hitting “maritime capabilities, missile and drone storage facilities, coastal surveillance sites and air-defence assets”. Explosions were reported across the south, from Bandar Abbas to Bushehr. Iran’s parliament speaker, Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf, was defiant: “The equation for this war is clear: it is all or nothing.” The Pentagon puts its losses at eighteen dead and 482 wounded.
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Oil Tops $95 as a Saudi Tanker Burns in the Red Sea
Brent crude pushed above $95 a barrel, a six-week high and a near-$20 rise since fighting resumed on 7 July, after fresh attacks on Gulf shipping. Yemen’s Houthis said they had struck two oil tankers; the Saudi-linked Encelia was hit and caught fire at the bow, though its crew were reported safe. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard separately claimed a tanker had caught fire after an explosion near the Strait of Hormuz.
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Trump Threatens Iran’s ‘Pickaxe Mountain’ as Tehran Denies Nuclear Work
President Trump has warned that the United States will strike a fortified site south of Natanz known as “Pickaxe Mountain”, which Western intelligence believes shelters Iran’s centrifuge programme. Tehran on Wednesday denied conducting any nuclear activity at the complex. Iran’s top joint military command has threatened to target American and allied interests across the region should its nuclear facilities be hit.
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Zelensky Sacks His Army Chief After Days of Kyiv Protests
President Zelensky has dismissed his commander-in-chief, General Oleksandr Syrskyi, and named the ground-forces commander, Major-General Mykhailo Drapatyi, to lead Ukraine’s army. The move follows nearly a week of protests in Kyiv, sparked by the earlier removal of the defence minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, with demonstrators demanding Syrskyi’s departure. Mr Zelensky has ordered the new command to produce an updated defence strategy.
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Wildfires Rage Across Spain and France Amid Another Heatwave
Spain, France and Italy are battling fierce wildfires as a third heatwave of the summer pushes temperatures towards 44C. A blaze in Spain’s Guadalajara region has consumed some 32,000 hectares, one of the country’s largest on record, while fires in the French Var and on Sicily have forced evacuations. Spain’s prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, said: “Climate change kills and destroys wealth… This isn’t politics. It is science.”
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Burnham Weighs North Sea Drilling in a Manifesto Reckoning
Andy Burnham’s government is weighing approval for drilling at the Rosebank and Jackdaw fields, a move campaigners say would shatter Labour’s 2024 manifesto pledge to issue no new oil and gas licences. Both fields already hold consents granted in 2022–23, but an Edinburgh court voided them last year over unaccounted emissions. The new energy secretary, Miatta Fahnbulleh, is reviewing the schemes as ministers hunt for growth and energy security.
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UK Borrowing Costs Stay Highest in the G7 as Sterling Slips
British government borrowing costs remain the dearest in the G7, with the ten-year gilt yield holding near 5.07 per cent, its highest since May, as investors weigh Mr Burnham’s spending pledges against his talk of fiscal “flexibility”. Sterling has slipped to around $1.337. The FTSE 100, by contrast, touched a five-month high near 10,717, buoyed by its heavy weighting in energy and commodity shares as oil climbs.
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Burnham Governs as Preferred PM but Faces a Sceptical Public
Andy Burnham enters Downing Street as the public’s clear choice for prime minister but with doubts over his readiness, polling suggests. Ipsos found three in ten Britons named him their preferred premier, on 30 per cent, well ahead of Reform’s Nigel Farage on 16 per cent and the Conservatives’ Kemi Badenoch on 13. Yet on raw voting intention Reform still led Labour narrowly, by 26 per cent to 24.
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Millions More Face Hosepipe Bans as England Dries Out
Around 23 million people in England are now under hosepipe bans after Thames Water became the latest supplier to restrict its ten million customers. The curbs follow the driest spring on record for England and Wales and three successive heatwaves. Only 13 per cent of rivers are running at normal levels for the time of year, and several reservoirs are classed as notably or exceptionally low.
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Oil’s Surge Threatens to Undo Britain’s Inflation Relief
The jump in crude prices driven by the Gulf war threatens to reverse the fall in British inflation that has buoyed Mr Burnham’s opening days. Brent’s climb above $95 a barrel feeds quickly into petrol and diesel, the very costs that pushed headline inflation down to 2.6 per cent in June, a fifteen-month low. Forecasters already expected inflation to climb back towards 3.4 per cent by the autumn; the oil spike sharpens that risk.
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Evening Briefing
What It Means For You
- Tax & Bills: Andy Burnham ruled out tax rises at the autumn Budget and stepped back from his hint that he might unfreeze the £12,570 personal allowance, insisting his cost-of-living measures are “fully funded” by cuts elsewhere. Scrapping the digital ID scheme will pay the £850m cost of removing VAT from electricity bills from October.
- Petrol & Energy: Brent crude jumped to a six-week high above $93 a barrel — spiking towards $95 during the session — as President Trump threatened to bomb an Iranian bridge or power plant for every ship attacked in the Strait of Hormuz. Pump and energy costs will keep rising while both the Gulf and Red Sea routes are threatened.
- Savings & Markets: The FTSE 100 closed at a five-month high on the softer inflation figures and a commodities rally, and gold hit a record. But ten-year gilt yields stayed pinned near 5 per cent, the market’s cautious verdict on the new government’s spending.
GEO Geopolitical
Trump Vows to Bomb a Bridge or Power Plant for Every Ship Hit
President Trump unveiled a stark new retaliation doctrine, declaring that the United States would “bomb and destroy one bridge or power plant” — including targets in or beside Tehran — every time Iran fires on a ship in the Strait of Hormuz. The threat followed an eleventh straight night of US strikes and came alongside a renewed vow to hit the fortified “Pickaxe Mountain” nuclear site near Natanz. Iran’s military warned any such attack would trigger a “powerful assault”.
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Oil Hits a Six-Week High as War Chokes Two Sea Routes
Brent crude surged to a six-week high, jumping as much as 4 per cent to around $93 a barrel and spiking towards $95 during the session, as Washington talked down peace prospects and traders confronted a “dual-strait” threat. Iranian attacks have throttled the Strait of Hormuz to a trickle, while a fresh Houthi blockade menaces the Bab el-Mandeb, forcing tankers of Saudi crude bound for Asia to turn back towards Suez. US pump prices ticked up above $4 a gallon.
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Iran Strikes Back Across the Gulf as Rubio Warns Asia on Hormuz
Iran fired a missile at a Jordanian city near Israel and triggered alerts in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, retaliating for the latest American bombardment; Tehran’s health ministry says US strikes have now killed 53 people over eleven days. In Manila, the US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, told Southeast Asian ministers that letting Iran control and tax the Strait of Hormuz would set a “very dangerous precedent”, and held a rare sideline meeting with China’s foreign minister.
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Ukraine Turns Its Drones on Southern Russia’s Oil and Supply Lines
Ukrainian long-range drones struck warehouses, an oil depot and Russia’s biggest online retailer deep inside Krasnodar and Stavropol, injuring at least eight and killing one. President Zelensky confirmed the raids and said thirteen Russian “shadow fleet” vessels had been hit in the Black and Azov seas over 48 hours, part of a campaign Kyiv says is designed to drag Moscow back to the negotiating table.
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Flash Floods Kill 23 and Leave 100 Missing in Afghanistan
Flash floods that tore through Afghanistan’s remote Nuristan province have killed at least 23 people and left more than 100 missing, with rescue crews digging through mud and rubble for a second day. Some 80 people were injured and buildings collapsed when the waters struck; the toll is expected to climb as teams reach cut-off villages, and forecasters warn of further flooding across ten provinces.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Burnham Rules Out Budget Tax Rises and Cools Allowance Talk
The Prime Minister ruled out tax rises at the autumn Budget and stepped back from his own hint that he might unfreeze the £12,570 personal allowance, insisting his cost-of-living measures are “fully funded” by reprioritising existing budgets. “We’ll take decisions on tax at the Budget. This is about reprioritising in this phase,” Mr Burnham said on a walkabout in Bath, hours after unveiling the £2 bus-fare cap.
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Burnham Axes Starmer’s Digital ID Scheme to Fund Cheaper Bills
Downing Street confirmed that the £850m cost of scrapping VAT on household electricity from October will be met by cancelling Sir Keir Starmer’s flagship digital ID programme. It is the first concrete casualty of Mr Burnham’s cost-of-living reprioritisation, killing off one of his predecessor’s signature reforms to bankroll a tax cut worth about £45 per household.
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Burnham Orders Early-Release Review After Harper Killers Outcry
The Prime Minister ordered his new Justice Secretary to review Labour’s prison early-release policy after fury that two of PC Andrew Harper’s killers could walk free halfway through their sentences. Mr Burnham said the ringleader would not qualify but stopped short of guaranteeing the others would serve full terms, promising to examine “every single part” of the scheme before it takes effect in September.
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FTSE Hits a Five-Month High as Gilts Stay Pinned Near 5 Per Cent
London’s blue-chip index closed at its highest since February, powered by miners and oil majors, even as the government-bond market kept the new administration on a short leash. The FTSE 100 finished at 10,716.97, up 1.24 per cent, and gold hit a record. But ten-year gilt yields held near 5 per cent, still the highest in the G7, and sterling slipped below $1.34 despite the softer June inflation figures.
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Burnham Courts Scotland and Wales as Sarwar Heads to the Lords
The new Prime Minister opened a charm offensive with the devolved nations, winning cautious goodwill from the Scottish and Welsh first ministers, who said he seemed readier to listen than Sir Keir Starmer. In a linked move, the Scottish Labour leader, Anas Sarwar, is standing down to take a peerage and a ministerial post, reshaping the party’s leadership north of the border less than a year before the Holyrood election.
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Morning Briefing
What It Means For You
- Cheaper Buses & Bills: Single bus fares in England will be capped at £2 from January, down from £3, in Andy Burnham’s second cost-of-living measure in two days after scrapping VAT on electricity. Inflation has also fallen to 2.6 per cent, a 15-month low, largely on cheaper petrol and diesel.
- Petrol & Energy: The relief may be brief: Brent crude has climbed towards $93 a barrel, its highest in five weeks, as an eleventh night of US strikes on Iran and a Houthi blockade of Red Sea shipping keep the pressure on. Forecasters expect inflation to climb back towards 3.4 per cent by November.
- Savings & Markets: Ten-year gilt yields are holding near a two-month high around 5 per cent and the pound has slipped below $1.34, as investors question how the giveaways will be funded before the autumn Budget. Economists warn tax rises may follow. Gold hit a fresh record.
GEO Geopolitical
US Bombs Iran for an Eleventh Night as Trump Threatens Natanz
American forces struck Iran for an eleventh consecutive night, with air defences firing over Tehran and blasts reported near Bushehr, Tabriz and Chabahar. US Central Command said the barrage was designed to keep degrading Iran’s ability to threaten Hormuz shipping. President Trump threatened to hit a suspected underground enrichment site near Natanz, known as “Pickaxe Mountain”, warning: “We’ll be hitting that area pretty soon, and very heavily.” The American military death toll has reached eighteen.
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Rubio Says Iran Is “Not Serious” About Talks as Strikes Go On
The US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, said Tehran was “not serious” about negotiations as the two sides traded an eleventh night of fire, with a mediator-tabled ten-day ceasefire still unaccepted. Washington is holding out for a longer pause and a guarantee of safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz first. A US official said the strikes would continue until the President decided otherwise, “but talks between our countries are continuing”.
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Oil Nears $93 as the Houthis Turn Back Saudi Tankers
Brent crude climbed towards $93 a barrel, a five-week high, after Yemen’s Houthis enforced a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia, forcing two tankers laden with Saudi crude bound for China and India to reverse course in the Red Sea. With the Strait of Hormuz already throttled, the closure threatens the kingdom’s main alternative export route. Kazakhstan separately halted Black Sea exports after a fourth drone strike on tankers at its Novorossiysk terminal.
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Ukraine Launches a 400-Drone Raid on the Moscow Region
Ukraine struck an oil depot and logistics hubs across the Moscow region in one of its largest drone raids of the war, with Russian officials claiming more than 400 drones approached the capital. President Zelensky said Kyiv had also hit six Russian vessels in the Black Sea, including sanctioned “shadow fleet” tankers. Russia, meanwhile, pressed one of its heaviest ballistic barrages on Kyiv.
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Two Firefighters Die as Record Wildfires Ravage France
Two firefighters were killed battling a blaze near Bordeaux-Mérignac airport as France endures its worst wildfire season on record. More than 42,000 hectares have burned since January, surpassing the 2022 record, with a separate out-of-control fire in the Var forcing evacuations. President Macron said France had not seen so many blazes since the Second World War.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Burnham Caps Bus Fares at £2 in a Fresh Cost-of-Living Blitz
Single bus fares across England will be capped at £2 from January and held there through 2027, the Prime Minister has announced, cutting the current £3 limit by a third for millions. It is Andy Burnham’s second cost-of-living intervention in as many days, after Tuesday’s VAT cut on domestic electricity. The scheme, which he ran as Greater Manchester mayor, is backed by £454m of funding.
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Inflation Slips to 2.6 Per Cent, a 15-Month Low, as Fuel Falls
Inflation fell to 2.6 per cent in the year to June, down from 2.8 per cent in May and below the 2.7 per cent economists had expected, official figures showed. It is the lowest reading since spring 2025, driven chiefly by cheaper diesel and petrol, with food and clothing prices also easing. The figures hand the new Prime Minister an early, if fragile, boost as he presses his cost-of-living measures.
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Economists Warn Burnham’s Giveaways Point to Autumn Tax Rises
As the government trumpets cheaper energy and bus fares, economists warn the spending points to tax rises at the Chancellor’s first Budget. June borrowing came in at £16bn, some £7.9bn below a year earlier but still ahead of official forecasts, and analysts say there is little room for extra borrowing. The Institute for Fiscal Studies has questioned how this year’s giveaways will be sustained beyond 2026.
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Gilts Hold Near 5 Per Cent as Markets Eye the Bank of England
The cooler inflation print offered only limited comfort to bond markets, where British borrowing costs remain the highest in the G7. Ten-year gilt yields are holding around 5 per cent and the pound has slipped below $1.34 to a one-week low, after the Prime Minister’s remarks about fiscal “flexibility” rattled investors on Monday. Attention now turns to the Bank of England’s rate decision on 30 July, where a hold is expected.
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Sacked Starmer Loyalists Nurse Their Wounds on the Backbenches
Mr Burnham’s swift purge of Sir Keir Starmer’s allies has left a restive bloc of former ministers on the Labour benches, testing party discipline in his opening days. Pointed parting shots — the ousted Treasury minister Darren Jones has already needled the government over its “unfunded” energy policy — suggest the peace will be uneasy. Some MPs have dismissed the reshuffle as the “same gang, different seats”.
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Evening Briefing
What It Means For You
- A Cost-of-Living Government: Andy Burnham chaired his first Cabinet and declared a “cost-of-living government”, confirming VAT scrapped on domestic electricity from 1 October — about £45 off a typical bill — though a sacked minister branded it “unfunded”. Markets steadied: the FTSE reversed higher to close up and official figures showed pay growth cooling.
- Petrol & Energy: Brent crude rebounded above $91 a barrel as a tenth night of US strikes, a stalled truce and a new Houthi blockade of Red Sea shipping overwhelmed diplomacy hopes. Petrol pumps and winter energy bills remain squeezed.
- Savings & Markets: Ten-year gilt yields held near a two-month high around 5 per cent and sterling stayed soft as investors waited to see how Mr Burnham’s giveaways will be funded; the real test comes at the autumn Budget. Gold hit a fresh record high.
GEO Geopolitical
Iran Weighs a Ten-Day Truce as Trump Demands Tehran Pay
Tehran has received a mediator proposal for a ten-day ceasefire to salvage last month’s interim deal, Iran’s foreign ministry confirmed on Tuesday, signalling that diplomatic channels remain open. Washington is holding out for a longer pause and firm Strait of Hormuz navigation guarantees before any halt, and says its strikes will continue until the President decides otherwise. A tenth consecutive night of American bombing preceded the overtures.
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Oil Rebounds Above $91 as the Houthis Blockade the Red Sea
Brent crude rebounded to more than $91 a barrel on Tuesday, reversing an early dip, after Yemen’s Houthis declared a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia and a tanker was abandoned off Oman. The blockade opens a second front in the region’s shipping war, widening supply fears from the Gulf to the Red Sea, even as mediators pressed a ceasefire proposal. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains near a standstill.
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ASEAN Demands a Hormuz Truce as Rubio Lands in Manila
Southeast Asian foreign ministers opened their annual meeting in Manila on Tuesday under the shadow of the US–Iran war, preparing a joint statement demanding an immediate halt to hostilities and the restoration of safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, arrived for his first visit to the region as America’s top diplomat, as Washington condemned a “dangerous” Chinese clash with the Philippine navy.
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Kazakhstan Halts Black Sea Oil Exports After Tanker Drone Strikes
Kazakhstan suspended crude shipments through its main export terminal near Russia’s Novorossiysk on Tuesday after a wave of drone attacks left tanker operators too nervous to sail, threatening roughly 80 per cent of the country’s oil exports. The strikes on vessels loading Kazakh crude, widely attributed to Ukraine, have dragged a neutral third country’s energy lifeline into the Black Sea shipping war.
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Russia and Ukraine Trade Heavy Drone Barrages as Talks Stall
Russia and Ukraine exchanged fresh waves of drone attacks overnight into Tuesday, with Moscow claiming more than 200 Ukrainian drones downed and Kyiv reporting dozens of Russian strike drones. Russia said it had again hit cargo vessels at Ukraine’s Chornomorsk port, which it alleged were carrying military supplies. No date has been set for the peace talks Kyiv has been pressing for.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Burnham Tells His First Cabinet: We Are a Cost-of-Living Government
Andy Burnham chaired the first meeting of his new Cabinet on Tuesday, declaring his administration a “cost-of-living government” and ordering every department to find ways to ease the squeeze on households. Convening ministers a day after purging eleven of Sir Keir Starmer’s allies, he told them Labour was now “one team” and that all new policies must show how they would be paid for. The confirmed first act — scrapping VAT on domestic electricity from 1 October — set the tone.
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Sacked Starmer Ally Brands Burnham’s Energy Cut “Unfunded”
Mr Burnham’s first major policy was overshadowed within hours when Darren Jones, dismissed from the Cabinet a day earlier, branded the VAT cut on electricity “unfunded”. Mr Jones, who ran the very digital ID scheme whose cancellation is meant to pay for it, argued that programme had no money attached in the first place, so the saving cannot bankroll cheaper bills. The intervention, widely read as revenge for the purge, exposed the new government to accusations of loose accounting on day one.
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Recess Shields Burnham From the Commons Until September
The new Prime Minister will face no Commons scrutiny for six weeks, with Parliament in its summer recess until 1 September and his first Prime Minister’s Questions not due until then. The Conservatives, who tried and failed to delay the recess so Mr Burnham could be questioned on taking office, accused Labour of “running scared”. A government majority of more than 150 blocked the motion, leaving Tuesday’s funding row to play out online rather than on the floor of the House.
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Trump Signals a Manchester Visit After a “Very Good” First Call
Downing Street and the White House confirmed details of Mr Burnham’s first call as Prime Minister with Donald Trump, who called it a “very good conversation” and signalled the pair would meet before long. The two discussed North Sea oil, the military alliance and the de-mining of the Strait of Hormuz. Mr Burnham said he hoped to show the president “what Manchester has to offer” — a striking warming days after Mr Trump branded Britain a “Poverty Stricken Disaster”.
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Burnham Sets Up “No 10 North” and Merges Whitehall Departments
Mr Burnham’s first full day brought structural change to Whitehall as well as policy. Downing Street confirmed a new Manchester base for the Prime Minister’s office — dubbed “No 10 North” — while the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology was abolished and folded back into an enlarged business department, with a new Cabinet-level artificial-intelligence minister created. The moves signal Mr Burnham’s intent to govern from beyond Westminster, even as unions warned of disruption.
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Morning Briefing
What It Means For You
- A New Government Takes Shape: Andy Burnham confirmed his Cabinet on his first full day, naming John Healey as Chancellor, with Ed Miliband at the Foreign Office and Rachel Reeves out. His first act was to scrap VAT on domestic electricity from 1 October, expected to cut a typical bill by around £45 a year.
- Petrol & Energy: Brent crude eased back towards $88 a barrel as mediators floated a ten-day truce, but a tenth night of US strikes on Iran and blocked Strait of Hormuz shipping keep prices near five-week highs. Pump and energy costs stay elevated.
- Savings & Markets: The bond market took fright — ten-year gilt yields hit a two-month high near 5 per cent and sterling slipped — as investors waited for the new Chancellor and questioned how the giveaways will be funded. Watch this week’s inflation and borrowing data.
GEO Geopolitical
US Strikes Iran for a Tenth Night as Tehran Hits Kuwait
American forces bombed Iranian military targets for a tenth consecutive night, with explosions reported across Qeshm Island, Bandar Abbas, Sirik, Shiraz and Isfahan. Tehran retaliated before dawn on Tuesday, its army claiming surface-to-surface missiles struck US HIMARS launchers at Camp Arifjan in Kuwait, where air defences were activated. The American military death toll stands at seventeen, and the Pentagon says nearly a hundred troops have been wounded in the past fortnight.
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Mediators Table a Ten-Day Truce as Iran Signals Openness to Talks
Mediators have handed Tehran a proposal for a ten-day ceasefire to revive last month’s collapsed interim deal, a senior Iranian official said, though Washington has played down the prospect of the President accepting it. The US Secretary of State said America remained open to a diplomatic solution if Iran halted its attacks. Iran asked Pakistan to resume its mediating role even as the strikes continued.
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Oil Retreats From a Five-Week High on Ceasefire Hopes
Brent crude slipped around 0.9 per cent towards $88 a barrel on Tuesday, easing from Monday’s near-$90 close, as reports of a ten-day truce proposal offset the tenth night of strikes and fresh tanker fires in Hormuz. Prices remain near five-week highs and up roughly 20 per cent this month. The retreat came despite Yemen’s Houthis declaring a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia.
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Russian Missiles Kill Ten on a Grain Ship Off Odesa
A Russian cruise-missile strike on the Golden Leo, a bulk carrier laden with corn, killed at least ten as it left Odesa — the deadliest attack yet in a widening Black Sea campaign. The dead included nine foreign crew from Syria and India and a Ukrainian port pilot. In retaliation, Ukraine launched more than 400 drones at the Moscow region overnight, striking an oil depot and wounding at least ten people.
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Ukrainian Civilian Toll Hits a Wartime Record as Crimea Link Is Cut
Russia’s intensifying long-range strikes drove Ukrainian civilian casualties to their highest monthly level since April 2022, United Nations monitors reported — 293 killed and nearly 2,000 injured in June. War analysts said Ukraine’s drone campaign has now partly severed the main road link between mainland Russia and occupied Crimea, forcing Moscow to divert scarce air defences.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Healey Made Chancellor as Burnham Purges Starmer’s Ministers
Andy Burnham has confirmed a sweeping Cabinet on his first full day as Prime Minister, naming John Healey — the former defence secretary who quit over military funding — as Chancellor in a surprise choice. Ed Miliband becomes Foreign Secretary, Shabana Mahmood stays as Home Secretary, Angela Rayner returns to housing and Wes Streeting takes defence. Rachel Reeves, David Lammy and nine other Starmer-era ministers are out.
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Burnham Scraps VAT on Electricity in His First Act as PM
Andy Burnham has used his first full day in office to remove VAT from domestic electricity bills from 1 October, his opening cost-of-living measure. The Chancellor, John Healey, said the cut is funded by cancelling the previous government’s digital ID programme and will lower the Ofgem price cap by around £45 a year. The move delivers on Mr Burnham’s Downing Street pledge to give households “breathing space”.
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Markets Take Fright as Gilt Yields Hit a Two-Month High
Government borrowing costs jumped to their highest in two months and the pound fell after Mr Burnham said he would use “any flexibility” within the fiscal rules. The ten-year gilt yield rose to around 5 per cent, sterling slipped to $1.34 and the FTSE 100 closed lower. Rachel Reeves’s departure, and the delay in naming a Chancellor, unsettled investors who had treated her fiscal rules as an anchor.
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Trump Brands Britain “Poverty Stricken” as Burnham Courts the President
Mr Burnham’s first day was overshadowed by Donald Trump, who called Britain a “Poverty Stricken Disaster” while praising reports the new Prime Minister could ease curbs on North Sea drilling. In their first phone call, Mr Burnham invited Mr Trump to visit Manchester and stressed his commitment to defence and to Strait of Hormuz shipping security. Downing Street says he will honour Labour’s manifesto on oil and gas, pursuing “a change of emphasis” rather than new licences.
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Farage Demands a Snap Election as Badenoch Attacks “Airy Fairy” Plans
Opposition leaders have rounded on Mr Burnham’s unelected arrival in Downing Street. Reform’s Nigel Farage demanded an immediate general election, saying the Prime Minister has “no mandate” beyond his Makerfield by-election. The Conservative leader, Kemi Badenoch, branded his agenda “airy fairy” and, in a letter, urged him to rule out tax rises while refusing to hand him a “blank cheque”. Mr Burnham faces his first Prime Minister’s Questions on Wednesday.
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Evening Briefing
What It Means For You
- A New Prime Minister: Andy Burnham is now in Downing Street, pledging help with the cost of living this week and an end to rough sleeping. Rachel Reeves has gone as Chancellor, with Shabana Mahmood tipped to replace her — the choice markets will judge first.
- Petrol & Energy: Brent crude spiked above $90 overnight before easing back to around $88 as Iran hinted at talks. Pumps and winter bills remain exposed to the Strait of Hormuz; the average US petrol price has already touched $4 a gallon.
- Tax & Spending: The new government inherits a £110bn debt-interest bill and a “tax lock” on income tax, VAT and national insurance. That leaves little room for giveaways without an autumn Budget, so watch the Treasury as the new Chancellor is named.
GEO Geopolitical
US Strikes Iran for a Ninth Night as Third American Dies
US Central Command struck Iran for a ninth consecutive night, hitting Revolutionary Guard air defences, missile stores and coastal surveillance sites it says threaten Hormuz shipping. The attacks followed confirmation that a third American service member had been killed since Friday — two in an Iranian missile strike on the Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan and one in northern Iraq. Seventeen US personnel have now died in the war, with more than 430 wounded.
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Iran Signals Openness to Talks Yet Suspends Its Commitments
Iran said it remained open to negotiations even as the strikes continued. The foreign ministry spokesman, Esmail Baghaei, said intermediaries had gone on exchanging messages with Tehran throughout the latest American bombardment, and that talks could be pursued on Iran’s terms. Hours earlier the deputy foreign minister, Kazem Gharibabadi, said Iran had suspended its commitments under the memorandum of understanding signed last month, deepening doubts over the fragile framework.
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Oil Breaks $90 Then Retreats as Iran Hints at Diplomacy
Brent crude jumped nearly 4 per cent overnight to break $90 a barrel — its highest since mid-June — before easing to around $88 as Iran’s openness to talks tempered supply fears. US West Texas Intermediate slipped to $82.24 a barrel. Yemen’s Houthis declared an immediate maritime embargo on Saudi Arabia, while the average American petrol price touched $4 a gallon.
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Russian Strike on Grain Ship Near Odesa Kills Ten
At least ten people were killed when a Russian strike hit a cargo vessel near the Ukrainian port of Odesa. The Guinea-Bissau-flagged ship, carrying corn and crewed by Indian and Syrian nationals, was struck as Russia said it had targeted fuel reservoirs at the port; eight crew were rescued. The attack pushed July’s death toll in the Odesa region to twenty-eight.
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Ukraine Launches 400 Drones at Moscow, Hitting an Oil Depot
Ukraine sent more than 400 drones against the Moscow region overnight, striking logistics sites and an oil depot over 400km inside Russia. The mayor, Sergei Sobyanin, said most were shot down, including 85 near the capital, but at least ten people were wounded, among them a child and three Chinese citizens. It was one of the largest drone assaults on the capital of the war.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Burnham Becomes PM, Vowing a ‘Circuit-Breaker for Britain’
Andy Burnham became the United Kingdom’s seventh prime minister in a decade on Monday, after King Charles III asked him to form a government following Sir Keir Starmer’s resignation. In his first speech outside Downing Street, Mr Burnham promised to end political instability and pledged help with the cost of living this week, with an end to rough sleeping as an immediate priority. He had been Labour leader for barely three days.
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Reeves and Lammy Out as Burnham Reshapes the Cabinet
Mr Burnham moved swiftly to remake the government, with Rachel Reeves resigning as Chancellor and David Lammy departing as Deputy Prime Minister. The business secretary, Peter Kyle, was sacked, while the housing secretary, Steve Reed, and the science secretary, Liz Kendall, also left. The home secretary, Shabana Mahmood, was reported the frontrunner to become Chancellor, with Ed Miliband, John Healey and Louise Haigh seen entering No 10.
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New PM Inherits £110bn Debt Bill and a Stalled Economy
Mr Burnham takes office facing acute fiscal constraints. The government spent £110bn on debt interest in 2025-26 — about 8 per cent of all public spending — while taxes are forecast to reach their highest share of the economy since the Second World War by the end of the decade. Borrowing has run higher than planned this year, and the economy he inherits has barely grown in two decades.
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Trump Hails North Sea Plan, Calls Britain ‘Poverty Stricken’
President Trump welcomed Mr Burnham’s plan to fast-track North Sea oil and gas exploration, writing on Truth Social that the move would take the United Kingdom from a “Poverty Stricken Disaster, to one of the Richest Countries anywhere in the World”. The new Prime Minister is expected to permit new drilling in already-licensed fields, a notable break from his predecessor’s energy stance. Mr Trump had last month called Mr Burnham “extremely liberal”.
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Reform Leads or Levels With Labour as Burnham Takes Over
Mr Burnham inherits a party under pressure from Reform UK. A YouGov poll for The Times and Sky News on 12-13 July put Reform on 24 per cent, five points clear of the Conservatives and Labour on 19 apiece. A separate Survation survey found Labour and Reform tied on 24 per cent each — Labour’s largest single upward movement since the 2024 general election.
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Morning Briefing
What It Means For You
- A New Prime Minister Today: Andy Burnham enters Downing Street today. He is expected to name his Cabinet, with Shabana Mahmood tipped as Chancellor, scrap the digital ID scheme and promise cost-of-living help. Expect a change of economic direction, though he has bound himself to the manifesto “tax lock” on income tax, VAT and national insurance.
- Petrol & Energy: Brent crude has topped $90 a barrel — its highest since mid-June — after a ninth night of US strikes on Iran and a seizing-up of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Petrol pumps and winter energy bills are directly exposed, and a further squeeze on the strait would push both higher.
- Savings & Markets: Markets have read the handover as orderly — sterling is steady near $1.35 and ten-year gilt yields eased to 4.94 per cent — but the oil spike is now the main inflation risk. Watch the pound and gilts as the new Chancellor is named.
GEO Geopolitical
America Bombs Iran for a Ninth Night as Tabriz Is Hit
US forces completed a ninth consecutive night of strikes on Iran, with explosions reported from the Gulf ports of Sirik and Jask to Chabahar and, for the first time in the campaign, the north-western city of Tabriz. Central Command said it had targeted command centres, air defences and missile and drone launch sites. Iranian authorities reported at least 50 people killed and more than 500 wounded, and the American military death toll has now reached seventeen.
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Iran Strikes Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan in Gulf-Wide Retaliation
Tehran launched a fresh wave of missiles and drones at American allies across the Gulf overnight, sounding air-raid sirens in Bahrain’s capital and striking Kuwait for a second straight day. The Revolutionary Guard said it had fired ballistic missiles at US aircraft at Jordan’s Aqaba airport, claiming “heavy damage”, and had hit the Ali al-Salem airbase in Kuwait. Jordan said its air defences downed several missiles without casualties.
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Brent Tops $90 as Tankers Burn and Hormuz Shipping Seizes Up
Oil surged above $90 a barrel on Monday, its highest since mid-June, after the ninth night of strikes and a third American death revived fears over the Strait of Hormuz. Brent rose more than 2.5 per cent to around $90.50, capping a near-16 per cent weekly gain. Only four vessels transited the strait on Sunday, down from eight, and Britain’s maritime authority reported a vessel on fire off the coast of Oman.
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Russia Unleashes One of the War’s Largest Barrages on Kyiv
Russia fired one of its heaviest ballistic salvoes of the war overnight, launching around 40 missiles — including ten Zircon anti-ship weapons — and 125 drones, mostly at Kyiv. President Zelensky said it was among the largest strike packages against the capital region since 2022, killing at least one civilian and wounding sixteen. A postal sorting terminal in Kharkiv was also hit, killing three.
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Ukrainian Drones Cripple Russia’s Black Sea Fuel Lifeline
Ukraine pressed a sweeping long-range campaign against Russian energy and naval targets, striking three oil depots in Stavropol Krai some 600km inside Russia and setting off large fires. Ukrainian commanders said their forces had hit 176 Russian vessels in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov since 6 July and destroyed five ferries handling around 80 per cent of military transport to occupied Crimea, cutting the Kerch crossing’s capacity by three-quarters.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Burnham to Enter Downing Street as Britain’s Seventh PM in a Decade
Andy Burnham is due to become Prime Minister today after Sir Keir Starmer tenders his resignation to King Charles III. Sir Keir is expected to give a farewell address outside Downing Street this morning before travelling to Buckingham Palace; Mr Burnham will then be invited to form a government and deliver his own first speech around midday. The former Greater Manchester mayor, an MP again for barely a month, was elected Labour leader unopposed on Friday.
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Mahmood Tipped for Chancellor as Burnham Keeps the Cabinet Guessing
Mr Burnham is expected to begin naming his Cabinet only after entering Downing Street, and no appointment has been confirmed. The Home Secretary, Shabana Mahmood, is the reported frontrunner for Chancellor — a choice framed as reassuring to markets and a setback for the energy secretary, Ed Miliband, who is tipped instead for the Foreign Office. Rachel Reeves is expected to be replaced, with comebacks anticipated for Wes Streeting and Angela Rayner.
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Burnham to Axe Starmer’s Digital ID Scheme on Day One
In his first confirmed break from Sir Keir’s programme, Mr Burnham has said he will scrap plans for a government-issued digital ID for all British adults, redirecting the money — reported at around £2bn — to cost-of-living help. His office says one of the new government’s first acts will be to put its focus “where people need it right now”. Conservatives accused him of claiming credit for a retreat already forced by their pressure.
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New PM to Promise “Breathing Space” With Energy Bills in His Sights
Mr Burnham is expected to use his first speech to pledge “breathing space” on the cost of living. A package is anticipated among his first acts, with his team examining a radical energy-bills overhaul, drawn up by the thinktank Nesta, that could cut a typical household’s bill by about £130 a year and make running a heat pump cheaper than a gas boiler. Nothing has been announced or delivered as of this morning.
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Farage Demands an Immediate Election as Burnham “Has No Mandate”
Mr Burnham takes office facing loud calls for a general election. Reform UK’s Nigel Farage says the incoming Prime Minister has “absolutely no mandate of any kind at all” and that voters, not Labour MPs, should decide who governs. The Conservative leader, Kemi Badenoch, has stopped short of demanding an election but dismissed Mr Burnham’s programme as “airy fairy” and cast him as a “people pleaser” unwilling to take tough decisions.