Trump Rules Out an Iran Strike and Tehran Says It Will Reply
“We will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the midterm elections to be held in the United States on November 3rd,” Donald Trump wrote, saying discussions were productive. Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi says Tehran is reviewing the American response to its seven-day plan for reopening the Strait of Hormuz and will answer within days. Brent has fallen back below $103.
The sequence is the interesting part. Brent closed Thursday up 4% at $104.28 on reports the White House had asked the Pentagon for strike options; it gave that back after the post and fell again this morning, which some analysts read as the point of the exercise. On Monday President Masoud Pezeshkian had called talks with Washington “futile”, accusing the United States of using negotiations as cover for an attack, so Araghchi’s undertaking to respond is a shift inside a week. JD Vance said on Tuesday that Iran must make a “meaningful” reduction in enrichment capacity, which reads as a retreat from the earlier demand that it abandon enrichment altogether. The underlying numbers have not improved: nine tankers were attacked in and around the strait in the past week, and throughput was 9.5 million barrels a day in the week to Tuesday, about 30% below the pre-war norm, with total Middle East flows near normal only because of pipeline workarounds. Ryan McKay of TD Securities explains why the price stays elevated anyway: the need for naval escorts, higher costs, logistical friction and “constant risk of being attacked” together “warrant a sticky risk premium to remain in pricing”. Vladimir Putin told Mr Pezeshkian on Thursday that Russia would “do everything” to help end the war.