Morning Briefing: Saturday 18 July 2026
- Petrol & Energy: Brent crude jumped to about $88 a barrel — up around 16 per cent on the week — as the widening US–Iran war throttled traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Forecourt prices and the wholesale gas price that sets energy bills are directly exposed, and a confirmed move on a second chokepoint would push both higher.
- A New Prime Minister on Monday: Andy Burnham enters Downing Street on Monday with an interventionist agenda — public control of essential services, a large council-housing drive, and no ruling-out of a wealth tax — with Shabana Mahmood tipped as Chancellor. Expect a shift in economic direction and likely tax decisions in the autumn.
- Savings & Markets: Fear drove a safe-haven move on Friday: gold rose and UK and US government bond yields eased, but a chip-led sell-off pushed shares lower and the “fear gauge” jumped around 12 per cent. A sustained oil shock would feed the inflation the new government has promised to bring down.
Iran Warns of “Full-Scale Offensive” After a Seventh Night of Strikes
US Central Command said it completed a seventh consecutive night of strikes on Iran early on Saturday, hitting weapons stores and maritime targets around Bandar Abbas and the Strait of Hormuz. A senior adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, Moh…
Iran Hits Kuwaiti Power Plant as the War Spills Across the Gulf
Iran’s retaliation reached deep into Gulf civilian infrastructure, with Kuwait reporting that an Iranian strike damaged a combined power and desalination plant, starting a fire and knocking out generating units. Desalination supplies aroun…
Oil Surges to $88 as Strait of Hormuz Shipping Collapses
Brent crude settled 4.6 per cent higher at $88.10 a barrel on Friday, capping a weekly gain of about 16 per cent — its strongest in months — as the US–Iran strikes choked the Strait of Hormuz. Confirmed crude transit through the waterway h…
Russia Digs In for Attrition War as Putin’s Approval Slumps
Russia is optimising its forces for grinding positional warfare rather than the mechanised manoeuvre needed for rapid gains, and neither side made confirmed advances on Friday, according to the latest campaign assessment. A Russian state-a…
Powerful Earthquake Rattles Southern Mexico, No Deaths Reported
A magnitude 7.3 earthquake struck off the coast of Chiapas in southern Mexico, shaking buildings from Mexico City to El Salvador and briefly triggering a Pacific tsunami advisory that was later lifted. Authorities reported no deaths and on…
Burnham Declared Labour Leader, to Become Prime Minister on Monday
Andy Burnham was formally declared leader of the governing Labour Party on Friday, securing nominations from 379 of the party’s 403 MPs as the sole candidate to succeed Sir Keir Starmer. The former Greater Manchester mayor becomes Britain’…
Reeves Faces the Axe as Burnham Lines Up a New Chancellor
Rachel Reeves is expected to leave the Treasury when Mr Burnham names his government on Monday, with the Home Secretary, Shabana Mahmood, the reported frontrunner to become Chancellor. The energy secretary, Ed Miliband, once tipped for the…
Labour Pulls Level With Reform as Burnham Inherits a Polling Boost
Labour has drawn level with Reform UK on 24 per cent apiece, according to a Survation poll, its largest jump since the 2024 general election and the first time it has caught Reform in the series for more than a year. The Conservatives trai…
Farage to Fight a Record 33 Rivals in Clacton By-Election
Nigel Farage will face a record 33 candidates in the Clacton by-election on 13 August, a contest he triggered himself by resigning as an MP on 7 July and re-standing. His resignation suspended a parliamentary standards inquiry into an unde…
Burnham Pledges a Power Shift From Westminster and a Housing Drive
In his first speech as Labour leader, Mr Burnham set out a programme built on shifting power out of Whitehall, “the biggest council house building programme since the postwar period”, and fixing social care. He argued that Britain took “a…