FTSE 100 Closes at 10,405, Up 0.48%; Roughly Flat on the Week as Brent Eases Below $96
The FTSE 100 closed at 10,405 on Friday, up 0.48% on the day, recovering most of the week’s losses as Brent crude eased to $95.80 a barrel. UK 10-year gilt yields fell back to the 5.00% line; sterling firmed to $1.3415. The VIX is down 3.4% as the war-risk premium eased modestly on Putin’s relatively measured SPIEF tone. The FTSE 100 closed the week roughly flat at 10,405, having traded as low as 10,330 Monday and as high as 10,460 last Friday. Defence stocks BAE Systems, Babcock and Melrose gave back some of the week’s gains.
The Friday close completes a week of risk-on, risk-off oscillation around the 10,400 level. The structural macro environment remains the Iran-deal-uncertainty + AI-bubble-pressure combination: a signed Iran deal would push the FTSE toward the 10,690 April high, while a Lebanon-track collapse would test the 10,330 Monday low. The 5.00% gilt yield is right at the binding macro-political resistance level for the Reeves Treasury. The Bank of England MPC’s rate-cut path is uncertain; the next decision in two weeks is the binding macro variable. The Ofgem October price-cap reset depends on Brent staying in the $88-95 range through mid-summer; the current $95.80 trajectory points to a marginal price-cap rise rather than a roll-back.