FTSE 100 Closes at 10,355, Down 0.53% as Lebanon-Truce Optimism Fades; Brent Back Above $97
The FTSE 100 closed at 10,355 on Thursday, down 0.53% on the day, as the Lebanon-truce optimism faded into the structural flaws of the deal and Brent crude pushed back above $97 a barrel. UK 10-year gilt yields ticked up to 5.04%, holding above the 5% line. Sterling weakened to $1.3395; gold firmed to $4,490. The VIX rose 2.3% as the war-risk premium rebuilt. Defence stocks BAE Systems, Babcock and Melrose recovered most of Tuesday’s losses; oil majors BP and Shell led the FTSE gainers on the Brent rebound.
The Thursday close reflects the structural read on the Lebanon ceasefire deal: the conditional clause requiring “complete cessation” by Hezbollah is operationally unverifiable given Hezbollah was not party to the talks. If the Lebanon track breaks formally, Brent is likely to test $100 again within 48-72 hours and the FTSE could fall toward the 10,330 Monday low. The 5.04% gilt yield is materially above the 5% line that has been the binding macro-political resistance level for the Reeves Treasury through May. The Bank of England MPC’s rate-cut path is now uncertain. The Ofgem October price-cap reset depends on Brent staying in the $88-95 range through mid-summer; the current trajectory points to a price-cap rise rather than a roll-back.