Iran “Stalling” Deliberately to Normalise Hormuz Control; “Deal or Force” Remains the Binary
One of Iran’s primary negotiating objectives is to secure sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz — an objective more important to Tehran than the fee revenue from merchant vessels. Iran is likely stalling and delaying the negotiations process deliberately, because the protraction of the current situation serves Iran’s interests by normalising its de facto control of transit through the strait. The strait will not return to normal without either a deal that ends Iranian control or a US-led military operation that forces the strait open. Recognition of Iranian claims of sovereignty is both unacceptable and fails to accomplish a return to normal. The binary the international community now faces is “deal or force”.
Iran likely sees two paths to controlling the strait. First, Iranian control could be officially recognised by the United States through an agreement. Other countries would probably oppose such recognition, but changing the new status quo would be extremely challenging. Second, Iran could maintain the current situation by firing missiles or drones at ships that fail to heed Iranian demands. Very few countries — and perhaps none — will approve of Iranian threats, but stopping Iranian coercion will require the use of force or an agreement that formally ends Iranian efforts to assert sovereignty over the strait. If negotiations do not lead rapidly to an agreement to reopen the strait under the previous, internationally recognised transit scheme, it will be necessary to resort to force.