Evening Briefing: Monday 25 May 2026
- Brent crude crashed below $100 a barrel for the first time since 7 May, settling at $97.53 in thin holiday trade — down 5.8% on the day — as oil markets priced in the prospect that an Iran-US deal reopening the Strait of Hormuz could be announced this week. President Donald Trump said in an early Memorial Day Truth Social post: his administration will either reach “a great and meaningful” deal with Iran “or there will be no deal”. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said yesterday an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be announced as soon as today. Gold rose 1% as the dollar softened.
- Iran continues to push back on the US framing. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said today the memorandum of understanding does not include specifics about the management of the Strait of Hormuz and that any fees Iran charges “will not be presented as tolls”. The IRGC-affiliated Tasnim news agency said the United States “is still obstructing” parts of the potential deal, including Tehran’s demand for the release of frozen funds. Iran has acknowledged agreement on many points but says the signing of a deal is not imminent.
- UK and US markets were closed today for the Spring Bank Holiday and Memorial Day, leaving global trade thin and volatility high. The Brent move — if it holds — would translate into materially lower UK pump prices in the coming weeks: Brent at $97 is roughly 23% below the post-war peak of $126. Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s cost-of-living package this week — cancelling a planned 5p rise in fuel duty, VAT cut from 20% to 5% on summer attraction tickets, removal of import tariffs from 100 food items, and a £120 million ceramics support package — would compound the relief if the oil-price move proves durable.
Trump — “Great and Meaningful” Deal “Or There Will Be No Deal”
President Donald Trump said in an early Memorial Day Truth Social post that his administration will either reach “a great and meaningful” deal with Iran to end the war, “or there will be no deal”. The post hardened the tone of yesterday’s…
Brent Crashes Below $100 — 5.8% Drop on Iran-Deal Optimism, Thin Holiday Trade
Brent crude futures dropped $6.01, or 5.8%, to $97.53 a barrel by 11:25 GMT, the lowest level since 7 May. West Texas Intermediate fell 5.9% to $90.95. Both contracts hit lows not seen in over two weeks as traders unwound the war-risk prem…
Baghaei — MoU Does Not Include Hormuz Specifics; Fees “Not Presented As Tolls”
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said today that the memorandum of understanding under negotiation does not include specifics about the management of the Strait of Hormuz. Baghaei added that any fees Iran charges “will…
Three-Stage Architecture Holds — Hormuz First, Sanctions Later, 60-Day Nuclear Window
The proposed three-stage framework remains the operational template: formally ending the war, resolving the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, and launching a 30-day window for negotiations on a broader agreement — which can be extended to 60…
Iran “Stalling” Deliberately to Normalise Hormuz Control; “Deal or Force” Remains the Binary
One of Iran’s primary negotiating objectives is to secure sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz — an objective more important to Tehran than the fee revenue from merchant vessels. Iran is likely stalling and delaying the negotiations proce…
UK Pump-Price Relief in Prospect as Brent Falls Below $100 on Bank Holiday
If Brent crude’s 5.8% Monday drop below $100 holds, UK pump prices are likely to fall materially in the coming weeks. Petrol and diesel prices typically lag Brent moves by 10-14 days through wholesale and retail margins; a sustained Brent…
Jones’s “Fantasy Politics” Warning Holds Through Bank Holiday Weekend
Senior Starmer ally Darren Jones, Chief Secretary to the Treasury, warned Labour against playing “fantasy politics” on the BBC’s Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg yesterday: there is no “magic answer” to the country’s problems and “Britain is p…
Alan Johnson — Burnham “Would Have To Call Snap General Election”
Former Home Secretary Alan Johnson said yesterday that Labour MPs would be “daft” if they backed a leadership bid by Andy Burnham. Johnson told Radio 4’s Broadcasting House: “Absolutely no case for Keir Starmer to step down.” Asked whether…
Streeting’s Substantive Policy Spine — Wealth Tax + Sure Start + Planning Reforms
Wes Streeting has set out a policy platform combining a wealth tax to fund a return of the New Labour-era Sure Start programme, and planning reforms to fund council homes to prevent children growing up in temporary accommodation. The Stree…
Reeves Cost-of-Living Package Starts to Bite as Brent Drops
Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s cost-of-living package this week — the cancellation of a planned 5p rise in fuel duty, free bus travel for children over the summer holiday, a VAT reduction from 20% to 5% on tickets for summer attractions (theme…