Around 650 more prisoners walk free today in third early-release wave
About 650 offenders serving up to three years and two months leave prisons in England and Wales on Tuesday after a third of their sentence rather than half, the third tranche of the early-release programme; at least 1,350 have gone since 1 October and officials expect 2,500 by the end of the year, with the scheme reaching those on terms over 12 years next June. Prisons held 86,982 people on Monday, 97.6% of usable capacity, with room for 2,076 more.
The cohort includes affray, burglary and fraud, and some violent offenders convicted of wounding, grievous bodily harm with intent or lower-end firearms charges; more than 70 offences are excluded, among them manslaughter, rape, sexual and grooming offences and life terms. The programme has bought roughly 500 more empty cells than existed on its eve, in a system that added about 500 net places between 2010 and 2024 and must find 14,000 by 2031; without the Sentencing Act the population was projected to reach 104,000 by 2032 against capacity of 99,000. The strain shifts to probation. Recalls to custody ran at 12,338 between April and June, 12% up on a year earlier, and 51,419 in the year to March, a 28% rise, with about a fifth for new offences; Napo, whose members voted on strike action over a 5% pay offer against a 12% claim, announces its result on Friday, and warned on Saturday that leavers are being discharged onto the streets. The Institute for Government’s Cassia Rowland says “the probation service is overwhelmed”. Kemi Badenoch is “worried about dangerous people being let out”, though her party freed more than 10,000 early in 2023–24. Watch Friday’s ballot.