Opinium: Labour 28, Reform 21, Conservatives 20 as Greens climb to 11
Labour holds a seven-point lead over Reform UK in Opinium’s poll for the Observer, though both fell — Labour to 28% and Reform to 21% — with the Conservatives unchanged on 20% and the Greens up three to 11%. Andy Burnham’s net approval slipped two points to +5; Kemi Badenoch stands at -1, Nigel Farage at -27 and Zack Polanski at -30.
Asked to choose a prime minister, respondents prefer Mr Burnham to Ms Badenoch by 41% to 22% and to Mr Farage by 47% to 22%. The fieldwork, 4–6 November among 2,050 adults, straddles Thursday’s rate rise. Ipsos’s October poll had Labour on 32% with the Conservatives second on 24% and Reform on 20% — its largest Labour lead since June 2025 — yet only 30% there thought the government deserved re-election against 47% who did not. Keiran Pedley of Ipsos cautioned that “the lesson of the last year is the British politics is volatile”.