Ryanair warns fares could rise 20% as the war’s fuel shock bites
Ryanair’s half-year profit fell 15% to €2.15bn as the cost of its unhedged fuel doubled, and the airline is weighing temporary pay freezes. “Unless there is a swift resolution of the Middle East conflict, we expect jet-fuel prices to remain elevated well into 2027,” said Michael O’Leary, its chief executive, who expects European fares to rise by up to 20% next year.
Ryanair has been the best-insulated carrier in Europe, with 80% of this year’s fuel hedged at $67 a barrel; jet fuel now trades at $170. “This is a very significant cost cliff we’re all facing next year,” O’Leary said. The airline expects a €2bn rise in its fuel bill from April 2027 that higher fares will not fully offset, so it is reviewing airport costs, crewing ratios and maturing labour deals. It has already cut its traffic target and will hold winter capacity flat for the first time in years. If the strongest balance sheet in European aviation is freezing pay, weaker rivals face a harder winter.