Evening Briefing · Monday 2 November 2026
Bank of England expected to raise rates for first time since 2023
All 35 economists in a Bloomberg survey expect the Monetary Policy Committee to raise Bank Rate to 4% from 3.75% on Thursday, its first increase in more than three years. Ten-year gilt yields fell to their lowest since 22 September, around 5.2%, as oil retreated.
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Rates have been held at 3.75% for eleven months; the war’s energy shock has since pushed inflation risk back up. Gilts have also been supported by Chancellor John Healey’s first Budget, which adhered to the fiscal rules and largely reassured markets. Monday’s oil slide complicates the Bank’s communication: a hike priced into markets is hard to withhold, but a sustained fall in crude would strengthen the case for signalling that it is a one-off.