Brent Tops $116 at a Six-Month High on Expected Iran Strikes
Brent crude rose 2.7% to above $116 a barrel, its highest since 30 April, as investors priced in renewed American strikes on Iran. It is on course for a weekly gain of nearly 6%, a third consecutive week of rises. Oil traded at about $72 before the war began in February.
The trigger is reporting that American and Israeli forces have plans for fresh strikes after the midterm elections on 3 November, which rests on unnamed United States officials and should be read as such. Around it sit three harder facts: Tehran has threatened to attack oil facilities, undersea cables and datacentres across the Gulf if a new offensive begins; Saudi Aramco has told staff to evacuate its headquarters at Dhahran; and Ukraine’s continuing strikes on Russian diesel refineries are tightening refined supply at the same time. Richard Hunter of the broker Interactive Investor put the repricing plainly: the reports were “enough for the price to pop, after what many had considered would be a brief conflict is now in its eighth month”. For scale, Brent peaked at about $126 at the end of April before falling back, so this is a return towards the war’s highs rather than a new extreme. Iran’s army chief said his forces are “fully prepared” for asymmetric warfare, a claim carried by Iranian state media and close to one we reported on Wednesday.