Energy Agency Warns the Diesel Squeeze Will Last Into 2027
The International Energy Agency’s monthly report says gasoil supply will fall short of demand this quarter and lost stocks are unlikely to be rebuilt before the second half of 2027. Global diesel exports fell 700,000 barrels a day year-on-year in September. Wholesale prices touched record highs of about $220 a barrel in Europe.
The agency’s point is that markets went into winter without a buffer: heavy inventory draws over the summer “deprived global gasoil markets of crucial stock cover ahead of the peak winter demand season”. A loss of 1.3 million barrels a day from Russia and the Middle East was only partly replaced. That is the backdrop to the American deal for Russian diesel, which the European Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis dismissed in Bangkok: the volumes are “not going to have any macroeconomic significance”. A second shortage is building behind it — a senior United Nations official warns that Asia and Africa face a food crisis unless Washington and Tehran agree a stalled plan to move fertiliser through Hormuz before planting season.