Trump Rules Out Striking Iran Before the Midterms, and Oil Falls
Brent had climbed 5% to $105.30 by midday on a report that the White House had asked the Pentagon for options to strike Iran before the 3 November elections. Donald Trump then wrote that “we will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections”, and the price gave back more than a dollar.
The full post keeps the pressure on while removing the threat: Iran is “in very bad condition, both Economically and Militarily”, he wrote, and “the Blockade will remain in full force and effect”. His claim that 22 million barrels passed through Hormuz in a single night is a presidential assertion rather than a verified figure and is not treated as one here. What can be checked is harsher: Kpler counts nine tankers attacked in and around the strait in the past week, and 9.5 million barrels a day leaving Hormuz in the week to Tuesday, about 30% below the pre-war norm, with total Middle East flows near normal only because of pipeline workarounds. A further 500,000 barrels a day of Gulf of Mexico production is shut in for a hurricane, which is weather rather than war but prices the same. Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi says messages are still moving through intermediaries: “We presented our plan, which was the plan referred to as the seven-day plan. We heard the Americans’ views in response. We are now reviewing them. I think we will respond within a few days.” The British consequence arrived through the bond market, and is the subject of the first item in the column alongside this one.