A Third American Carrier Heads to the Gulf and Oil Jumps 4%
Brent closed 4.4% higher at $102.31 after a report that the United States is sending a third aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East, along with Marine Corps ships and up to 10,000 additional troops, expected to arrive by the end of November. The USS Theodore Roosevelt left San Diego on Sunday; two carriers are already on station.
The deployment reads as preparation rather than deterrence. Officials have said the president expects to resume bombing Iran after November’s midterm elections, and Scott Modell of Rapidan Energy, a former CIA officer, set out the market’s reading: “The president I think is going to escalate after the midterms; we keep hearing that the Iranians are going to escalate into the midterms. The direction of travel is toward escalation.” What makes the oil move striking is that it happened even though supply has largely recovered — Middle East crude flows are back near pre-war levels — which tells you the price is now carrying a risk premium rather than a shortage. The fragility is real enough: at least three tankers were attacked this week attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz. West Texas Intermediate settled 2.7% higher at $92.87. Watch whether Tehran responds to the deployment before it answers the diplomatic note still sitting in front of it.