Ministers Refuse to Guarantee the Triple Lock Beyond 2029
Asked whether the pensions triple lock would survive into the 2030s, Wes Streeting would say only that Labour would “stand by our manifesto” until the next election. Pressed again on radio, he answered: “I’m not going to write the next manifesto on your radio programme.” The Chancellor gave the same non-answer: “The manifesto will be the manifesto at the time, I’m not going to do that now.”
Three cabinet ministers declining the same guarantee on the same day is not a coincidence, and the arithmetic explains why. Earnings are the highest of the three measures this year at 3.9%, which means a full state pension rise of nearly £500 from April 2027, enough to make the state pension taxable for some people for the first time. The Institute for Fiscal Studies reckons the lock has already added £16bn a year to the pension bill against a simple earnings link, and the care service being promised is costed by the Health Foundation at £18bn a year by 2035, a figure the Prime Minister disputes. Darren Jones, until recently at the centre of government, put the trade explicitly: “you’re going to have to swap something out if you’re going to start putting money in this way.” The former pensions minister Sir Steve Webb cautions that squeezing the pension “would not deliver anything like the amount needed”. Watch the Budget on 28 October.