Carney Says Canada Has Prepared for the 'Extreme Tail Risk' of US Action
Canada’s prime minister told the New York Times his government has examined and prepared for the remote possibility of American military action against his country. “I think you have a responsibility in these roles to look at extreme tail risk. That’s just risk management. That’s not a base case, but it would be irresponsible not to,” Mr Carney said. He added that he speaks to Mr Trump frequently and still sees a path back to trade negotiations.
The remarkable thing is not the assessment but that it was said aloud. A G7 prime minister confirming his officials have modelled invasion by the neighbouring superpower, while insisting the relationship is workable — “we can pick up the phone and talk to each other about issues” — is the clearest measure yet of how far the alliance has drifted since the tariff exchanges deepened last month. The asymmetry makes the planning largely theoretical: the United States fields more than two million active and reserve personnel against fewer than 200,000 Canadian, and as of 2024 held sixty-five military submarines to Canada’s four. What such preparation would consist of, he did not say. Watch whether Washington responds at all, and whether trade talks resume this autumn.