African Union and Washington Demand De-escalation as Tigray Fighting Spreads
The African Union Commission’s chairperson Mahmoud Ali Youssouf called for “immediate de-escalation” and a return to talks, and the American ambassador to Ethiopia, Ervin Massinga, condemned what he called the Tigray People’s Liberation Front’s “poor decision to launch a large-scale offensive” and an “unwinnable fight”. Fighting has spread into the Afar and Amhara regions. Ethiopian Airlines has suspended flights to the region after the seizure of its airports. Tigray says it is defending itself against federal attacks.
The 2020-2022 war killed an estimated 600,000 people, and the question now is whether Addis Ababa repeats it. Alan Boswell of the International Crisis Group framed the fork precisely: “how will the federal government respond? With total all out war? Or will we see a more measured response that tries to contain this?” The second danger is the border. “This area borders Eritrea, which is backing the TPLF, so if this war expands there is major risk of conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea” — a reversal of 2020, when Eritrea fought alongside the federal government against the same force. Sunday’s announcement of a six-group alliance aimed at removing Abiy Ahmed is what turns a regional revolt into a national one. Watch Asmara.