Hormuz Stays Shut to Most Traffic as Iran Holds to Its Terms
Brent dipped to $102.16 in early trading after Wednesday’s 4% surge, then recovered above $103.60 by the London open. The strait itself tells a harder story: ten commodity vessels transited on Wednesday, up from seven but well below the ten-day average of about seventeen, against roughly 125 large vessels a day before the war. Iran’s security chief Mohsen Rezaei said the strait will not reopen until Tehran’s conditions are met.
No second round of talks has been scheduled, and a senior Iranian official’s formulation to Reuters is the honest summary of where Tuesday’s contact left things: “There are still many differences between the Iranian and US positions, but diplomacy is continuing.” Meanwhile the pressure ratchets on a separate track — American secondary sanctions against countries permitting Iranian civilian flights took effect after Wednesday, and Mr Rezaei has threatened that neighbouring countries’ airports would be made unusable if they comply. That is a threat aimed at exactly the Gulf states hosting the mediation. American crude stocks rose three million barrels against an expected draw, and Gulf supply is recovering by other routes — which is how the price can wobble while the waterway itself stays shut. Watch for any date attached to a second round.