Washington and Tehran Discussing a Phased Deal: Hormuz for the Blockade
The shape of an agreement has emerged, according to Reuters, citing two Iranian and two regional officials and two Western diplomats: Iran reopens the Strait of Hormuz to navigation, America lifts its economic blockade, and Tehran may regain access to frozen assets — in stages rather than at once. Iran is willing to move its demand for transit fees, which the Gulf states reject outright, into a side attachment. “One way forward would be to solve the crisis in stages,” a senior Iranian official said.
This is the first reported substance behind Tuesday’s three hours of mediated contact, and it explains the sequencing both sides have hinted at: ending the blockade first, because that is what is actually hurting. Dennis Ross put it plainly — “The blockade is what’s really squeezing the Iranians. It’s strangling them” — and he puts the odds of a deal before the 3 November midterms at about three in ten. The counter-case came from the same reporting: Alan Eyre, a former American negotiator, warned the squeeze “is likely to drive them to escalate because they believe that if they soften their position, they are dead”. The Iranian official’s own words carried both halves — a phased path, and “our fingers are on the trigger”. Watch whether any second round gets a date.