Reform Falls to 21%, Its Lowest Since January 2025, as Greens Surge
YouGov’s tracker for The Times and Sky put Reform UK on 21%, down two and its worst since the series restarted in January 2025, with Labour on 23%, the Conservatives 21%, the Greens up three at 14% and the Liberal Democrats 12%. Nigel Farage’s net favourability stands at minus 45, with 69% viewing him unfavourably. The poll landed as the Metropolitan Police opened a criminal investigation into Reform’s donation declarations — £36m each from Christopher Harborne and Ben Delo.
Reform no longer leads, but the beneficiary is not the government: a governing party on 23% is nobody’s idea of strength, and the arithmetic points to the anti-system vote redistributing — towards the Greens and back to the Conservatives — rather than returning to Labour. Two things explain the slide: a Prime Minister who occupies the northern, plain-spoken ground Farage claimed as his own, and a donations story that has migrated from the newspapers to a police file. The Greens at 14% are now the fourth party by some distance, a number that would shred Labour’s left flank in the cities at a general election. The Reform-linked Centre for a Better Britain chose this week to launch a paper proposing the abolition of the state pension, inheritance tax and capital gains tax — a gift Labour will unwrap daily until the Budget. Watch the next tracker for whether 21% is a floor.