Small-Boat Arrivals Remain Burnham’s Toughest Political Test
Immigration remains the sharpest challenge facing the new government, and the issue on which Reform UK has built its lead. Around 36,000 people arrived by small boat in the year to the end of May, about 13 per cent fewer than a year earlier, according to House of Commons Library figures, but the crossings continue to dominate the political argument through the summer.
Small-boat arrivals account for around 90 per cent of people detected reaching the UK without authorisation, and almost all go on to claim asylum; roughly three-quarters are adult men. Crossings peaked at about 46,000 in 2022 and rose again to some 41,000 last year, so the modest recent fall offers ministers only limited comfort. Reform has drawn much of its support from public frustration at successive governments’ inability to stem the flow. For Mr Burnham, demonstrating grip on the Channel is central to converting his early poll recovery into durable support. Watch the summer crossing figures and any new enforcement measures.