‘Burnham Bounce’ Narrows Reform’s Lead in the Polls
Labour has closed much of the gap on Reform UK since Andy Burnham entered Downing Street, according to a run of recent surveys. Survation’s final poll under Sir Keir Starmer put the two parties level on 24 per cent each, Labour’s largest single jump since the 2024 election. Ipsos found Mr Burnham favoured as prime minister by 30 per cent against 16 per cent for Nigel Farage.
The shift marks a striking reversal for a party that trailed Reform for much of the spring, though most pollsters still place Nigel Farage’s party narrowly ahead on voting intention, with the Conservatives languishing around 18 per cent. Ipsos’s Keiran Pedley said Labour would be “more optimistic about the future than they were a month ago”, citing public doubts over whether Reform or the Tories were “ready for government”. The honeymoon is fragile: immigration, the cost of living and the North Sea question could all puncture it. Watch whether the bounce survives Mr Burnham’s first difficult decisions.