Bank of England Set to Hold Rates on Thursday
The Bank of England is widely expected to leave interest rates at 3.75 per cent when the Monetary Policy Committee reports on Thursday, with markets putting the probability of no change at around 86 per cent. The decision comes after a bruising week for oil and bonds, though firmer retail sales and business-activity data late in the week steadied sterling and gilts.
Rates were last held in a 7–2 vote on 18 June, with Megan Greene and the Bank’s chief economist, Huw Pill, favouring a rise to 4 per cent; Mr Pill has since said publicly that rates will need to climb over the coming year. Services inflation at 3.7 per cent keeps the Committee cautious, and the war-driven rebound in crude has prompted traders to price in two rate rises by March 2027. The ten-year gilt yield eased to about 5.04 per cent on Friday after touching a two-month high. For borrowers, the decision and the accompanying forecasts will shape mortgage costs into the autumn. Watch the vote split.