Labour Narrows the Gap on Reform as the Burnham Bounce Registers
Labour has recovered ground in the polls during the leadership contest while Reform UK has slipped. YouGov, publishing on 13 July, put Reform on 24 per cent with the Conservatives and Labour tied on 19; Opinium, three days earlier, had Reform on 24 and Labour on 19, a one-point gain for Labour and a one-point drop for Reform. Both leave Reform in front.
A five-point deficit is a considerable improvement on Labour’s position through the spring, and the party briefly overtook Reform in a national poll at the end of June for the first time since 2025. The caution is that both figures predate Mr Burnham’s actual election as leader on Friday, so the genuine bounce — if there is one — has yet to be measured. The Greens, on 14 to 16 per cent, remain the structural threat to Labour’s left flank in a five-party field where 24 per cent is enough to lead. Watch the first full post-handover polls late this week.