The Daily BriefEvening Briefing · Saturday 18 July 2026 · 09:00 BST
Evening Briefing · Saturday 18 July 2026

Labour Pulls Level With Reform in the Final Starmer-Era Poll

Labour has drawn level with Reform UK on 24 per cent each, up five points and its biggest single jump since the 2024 election, in Survation’s last poll of Sir Keir Starmer’s leadership. Reform fell three points to 24 per cent, its lowest in over a year; the Conservatives rose to 21. Prompting voters with Mr Burnham’s name made no difference, suggesting he is already seen as the de-facto leader.

Dive deeper

After trailing for more than a year, Labour’s recovery reframes the succession as a genuine contest rather than damage limitation, and has fuelled speculation that Mr Burnham could be tempted to call an early election to bank a “Burnham bounce”. The caveats are heavy: Labour’s net favourability remains worse than Reform’s and the Conservatives’, and Sir Keir departs the most disliked leader the pollster tests. A separate Ipsos poll found Mr Burnham the public’s clear choice for prime minister on 30 per cent. Watch the first fully post-handover polls for whether the bounce holds once he owns the decisions.

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