Hormuz Shipping Collapses as Oil Holds Above $85
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries about a fifth of the world’s oil and gas, has all but dried up under the US blockade: trackers counted just seven vessels crossing on Wednesday, down from thirteen the day before. Brent crude held above $85 a barrel, near a one-month high, having climbed more than 10% over the week, before easing slightly on the day as traders took profits. Owners are refusing the passage after Iranian strikes on tankers and the American disabling of a ship bound for Iran’s main oil terminal.
The collapse in shipping is the war’s clearest economic signal, and it is a closure of the strait in all but name: whatever Washington and Tehran claim about the waterway being open, owners are voting with their hulls and staying away, and that scarcity, not any single missile, is what holds the oil price up. That Brent has firmed to around $85 rather than spiking to three figures tells you the market still doubts a total, lasting shutdown — there is spare capacity elsewhere and no confirmed halt to the flow — but the balance is fragile, and a hit on a Gulf terminal or a mined tanker could send prices sharply higher within hours. The ships that do still move are paying steep war-risk premiums that feed through to every barrel. For Britain the transmission is quick, through petrol, diesel and the gas price that sets energy bills. Watch the daily transit counts, the war-risk insurance market, and whether any oil infrastructure is struck.