Iran Threatens to Halt All Regional Energy Exports as Oil Holds Near $85
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard threatened to cut off energy exports from the entire region, not just its own: “The export of oil and gas from the region will be either for everyone or for no one.” Brent crude held around $85 a barrel — well above pre-war levels but short of last month’s peak — as traders weighed the threat against ample spare capacity. Roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and gas passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and analysts warned prices could retest $100 if the strait’s traffic seizes up further.
The threat is a reminder that Iran’s ultimate weapon is not its missiles but its geography: it sits astride the chokepoint through which the Gulf’s oil must pass, and a serious attempt to close it would hurt the Arab exporters and the world economy far more than the war has so far. That oil has only firmed to around $85, rather than spiking, tells you the market still doubts Iran can or will fully shut the strait — there is spare capacity elsewhere and no confirmed halt to the flow. But the balance is fragile: a hit on a major terminal, a mined tanker, or a broadening of the fight to Saudi or Emirati facilities could send prices sharply higher within hours. For Britain the transmission is quick, through petrol, diesel and the gas price that sets energy bills. Watch the tanker traffic through Hormuz, the war-risk insurance market, and whether any Gulf oil infrastructure is struck.