Oil Jumps and Asian Markets Slip as the War Reopens
Oil climbed around 4% when markets reopened on Monday, with Brent crude rising to about $79 a barrel — its highest in three weeks — as traders priced in the weekend’s escalation and the threat to the Strait of Hormuz. Asian equities fell, with Japan’s Nikkei down more than 2%, as a risk-off mood spread. The move reverses the easing of recent weeks, when the war premium had drained out of oil, and puts renewed pressure on petrol and energy prices worldwide.
A 4% jump is significant but a long way from the panic a full closure would bring, and that gap is the market’s judgement: traders are pricing a serious disruption, not a catastrophe, betting that neither side wants the strait shut for good and that talks may yet contain it. Analysts see oil holding in the upper-$70s with the risk of sharper spikes if the fighting worsens, rather than the triple-digit prices some had feared. Roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and gas normally passes through Hormuz, so even a partial, intermittent disruption keeps a war premium in every barrel. For Britain, a net energy importer, the read-through is quick, through petrol, diesel and the gas price that sets bills. Watch whether the rally extends or fades as the London and New York sessions open, and whether OPEC signals it will pump more to fill any gap.