Tankers Stay Frozen in Hormuz as Oil Slips Back
The Strait of Hormuz remains all but impassable for large tankers, with owners keeping ships away from a waterway that carries a fifth of the world’s oil — yet the crude price is drifting lower rather than spiking. Brent eased towards $76 a barrel, down on the day and below its late-Thursday level, as traders judged the disruption contained and bet that neither side wants the strait closed for good. Maritime trackers say tracked crossings have effectively stopped since Tuesday.
The market’s composure in the face of a frozen chokepoint is the week’s most revealing signal. Insured, tracked tanker traffic through the strait has ground to a halt, a handful of ships crossing “dark” aside, and analysts have called the paralysis one of the biggest supply disruptions on record — yet Brent is falling. The logic is that closure would choke Iran’s own exports and invite the overwhelming American response Tehran has so far avoided, so the strangulation reads as leverage rather than a permanent cut. Washington insists Iran “does not control” the strait; Tehran says passage will come only under “Iranian arrangements”. The risk sits in the tail: a vessel struck in error, an insurer pulling cover, a mediation collapse. For UK households the war premium of recent weeks is now embedded in petrol and gas rather than climbing. Watch tanker-tracking data, war-risk insurance premiums, and whether the market’s bet on containment survives another night of strikes.