Iran Wields Hormuz Control as Leverage in Settlement Talks
Iran is explicitly using its hold over the Strait of Hormuz as leverage in negotiations with Washington over a permanent end to the war, with Tehran and Oman exploring transit charges that could reach $40bn a year. All tankers have been ordered to use Iranian-approved routes or face a “forceful response”. The talks are paused for the funeral week; shipping traffic, though recovering strongly, remains well below the pre-war norm.
The $40bn figure explains why Tehran will not simply trade the strait away: annualised, it would rival the country’s entire pre-war oil revenue, converting a military position into a permanent income stream. Washington insists free navigation is non-negotiable, but European capitals are reported to be resigned to some form of charge, and every day tankers comply with Iranian routing concedes a little more of the principle. The strait carried a fifth of global oil and liquefied gas before the war; the outcome will set petrol and energy prices for years. Watch the first negotiating session after Thursday’s burial in Mashhad.