Makerfield, Aberdeen South and Arbroath All Vote Thursday: Polls Close 10pm, Counts Begin Tonight
Voters in three constituencies cast ballots Thursday in by-elections crucial to UK political alignment. Makerfield polls close at 10pm with declaration expected early Friday morning. Aberdeen South and the Arbroath and Broughty Ferry constituency — both Scottish — were triggered by the election of SNP MPs Stephen Flynn and others. The Makerfield count is the principal binding result for the UK leadership trajectory; a Burnham win could trigger a Labour leadership challenge against Sir Keir Starmer by Friday afternoon. Reuters and the New York Times both have correspondents on the ground in Makerfield.
The five-candidate Makerfield field is settled: Burnham (Labour), Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon, Conservative Michael Winstanley, Liberal Democrat Jake Austin, Green Chris Kennedy; Restore Britain (Rupert Lowe’s breakaway) candidate and Climate Party candidate Ed Gemmell are also standing. The Reform UK / Restore Britain right-wing split is the structural reason for the wider Burnham lead. If Burnham wins, the Friday-morning leadership-challenge timing reflects the count window plus a 24-hour parliamentary-party coordination period. The Aberdeen South and Arbroath contests are the structural test of whether the SNP can hold ground against Labour and Reform UK in Scottish constituencies that voted SNP in 2024.