Russia Continues Overnight Strikes; ISW Says Putin Army Expansion No Battlefield Impact; Oreshnik Warning Still Active
Russian forces continued overnight long-range strikes against Ukraine through Monday morning with strikes recorded in the Sumy and Zaporizhzhia regions. Three killed, seven injured. The Institute for the Study of War reiterated that Vladimir Putin’s decree expanding the Russian armed forces will not affect the battlefield situation. The CIA Saturday-night Oreshnik IRBM warning remains in active operational effect through Monday evening. President Zelensky warned over the weekend that Moscow’s new bases near Europe’s borders signal a long-term anti-democratic strategy. Ukrainian drones hit fuel-storage facilities in Russia’s Yaroslavl region.
The Russia-Ukraine track will dominate G7 Day 2 Tuesday: G7 leaders’ communique is expected to address Patriot replenishment, sanctions on Russia’s shadow oil fleet, and the post-framework regional re-architecture. The framework signing late Sunday materially reduces Russia’s strategic-leverage position on global energy markets through the Hormuz reopening. The Oreshnik IRBM warning has not yet operationalised into a strike but the 24-48 hour window stretches into the G7 communique window; if operationalised, it would be the most significant Russian strategic-weapon deployment of the early-summer offensive and would materially shape G7 leaders’ positioning. The London-summit Patriot interceptor replenishment commitment continues to ramp into operational delivery.