CIA Urgent Warning: Russia May Launch Oreshnik IRBM at Ukraine Within 24 Hours; May Civilian Casualties Highest Since April 2022
The US Central Intelligence Agency has issued an urgent message that Russia may launch an Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile at Ukraine within the next 24 hours, prompting nationwide alerts from Kyiv. The last time the American services issued this type of warning, Russia attacked with an Oreshnik in the suburb of Bila Tserkva. The United Nations recorded May 2026 as the month with the highest number of civilian casualties in Ukraine since April 2022, marking the most lethal phase of the Russian summer offensive so far.
The Oreshnik is the Russian intermediate-range ballistic missile system unveiled in late 2024; it carries multiple independently-targetable warheads and travels at speeds that standard Patriot PAC-3 interceptors do not reliably engage. A successful Oreshnik launch in the next 24 hours would be the most significant Russian strategic-weapon deployment of the early-summer offensive. The CIA-Ukraine warning channel is reportedly the same that operationally pre-positions US-supplied air-defence assets for the highest-probability strike windows; the previous Bila Tserkva precedent is the structural reason Kyiv is taking the warning at maximum operational seriousness. The UN May-2026 civilian-casualty record is the consequence of the Russian summer-offensive long-range strike volume.