ISW Warns Russia May Launch Oreshnik IRBM at Ukraine in Next 24-48 Hours
The Institute for the Study of War reported Russian forces may launch an Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) at Ukraine in the next 24 to 48 hours. Russian forces conducted a series of long-range drone strikes against Ukraine overnight Friday-Saturday. The London Coalition of the Willing summit’s Patriot interceptor replenishment commitment continues to ramp into operational delivery. Trump’s Thursday-evening cancellation of the threatened Iran strikes has freed up some US Navy carrier-strike-group and air-defence inventory that would otherwise have been consumed by the Kharg seizure operation.
The Oreshnik is the Russian intermediate-range ballistic missile system unveiled in late 2024; it carries multiple independently-targetable warheads and travels at speeds that standard Patriot PAC-3 interceptors do not reliably engage. A successful Oreshnik launch against Ukraine in the next 48 hours would be the most significant Russian strategic-weapon deployment of the early-summer offensive phase. Each Patriot PAC-3 MSE interceptor costs roughly $4 million and is produced at a constrained rate of around 600 per year industry-wide; the London-summit replenishment commitment is the principal short-term Western response. The Russia-Ukraine bilateral diplomatic track remains closed after Putin’s rejection of Zelensky’s meeting offer.