Morning Briefing: Friday 12 June 2026
- President Donald Trump retracted his threat to seize Iran’s Kharg Island and cancelled the threatened US strikes overnight, claiming a deal with Iran is “nearly done”. Tehran denies any agreement. The Thursday Kharg seizure threat and the “hit Iran very hard tonight” framing — the most serious US-side escalation framing since the early war — are now formally walked back. Trump veered through Thursday from threatening a third straight day of strikes to abruptly calling them off. The US Navy added that a naval blockade would remain.
- India demanded an end to US attacks on Indian-crewed tankers and summoned a senior US diplomat after three Indian sailors were killed in Thursday’s strike on the tanker Jalveer off Oman. India said three merchant ships with Indian crew members have come under attack from American military off the Oman coast in the past week. The Indian-sailor deaths are a major diplomatic incident; Prime Minister Modi’s government is publicly furious.
- The FTSE 100 is set to open materially higher Friday at around 10,435 on Trump’s retracted Kharg threat and “deal nearly done” framing. Brent crude fell 3% to $96.50 a barrel from Thursday’s $99.50 close. UK 10-year gilt yields ease to 5.02%; sterling firms to $1.3415. The VIX is down 11% as the war-risk premium materially eases. Iran has separately said it will reestablish closure of the Strait of Hormuz, blaming US tensions; the closure is the structural binding constraint on the Brent path.
Trump Cancels Threatened Iran Strikes; Says Deal “Nearly Done”; Tehran Denies Any Agreement
President Donald Trump retracted his threat to seize Iran’s Kharg Island and cancelled the threatened US strikes overnight, claiming a deal with Iran is “nearly done”. Tehran denies any agreement. The Thursday Kharg seizure threat and the…
India Demands End to US Attacks on Indian Tankers After Three Sailors Killed; Delhi Summons US Envoy
India demanded an end to US attacks on Indian-crewed tankers and summoned a senior US diplomat after three Indian sailors were killed in Thursday’s strike on the tanker Jalveer off Oman. India said three merchant ships with Indian crew mem…
IDF Pushes Deeper Into Lebanon to Neutralise Hezbollah Threat; Iran to Reestablish Hormuz Closure
The Israeli army continues to push deeper into southern Lebanon to neutralise the Hezbollah threat, according to the Jerusalem Post live updates. Iran has separately said it will reestablish closure of the Strait of Hormuz, blaming US tens…
Russian Summer Offensive Continues; Iran Relief Rally May Free Patriot Inventory for Ukraine Pipeline
Russian forces continued large-scale missile and drone barrages against Ukrainian cities overnight Thursday-Friday as the London Coalition of the Willing summit’s Patriot interceptor replenishment commitment continues to ramp into operatio…
Netanyahu 70%-Gaza Directive Holds as Trump Iran-Strikes Cancel and Lebanon Push Define Friday
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s directive to expand Israeli control of Gaza to 70% of the territory remains in operational effect through Friday morning as Trump’s Iran-strikes cancellation and the deepening Israeli Lebanon pus…
FTSE 100 Materially Higher Open on Trump Iran-Strikes Cancellation; Brent Pulls Back to $96.50, VIX Drops 11%
London stocks are set to open materially higher Friday at around 10,435 on Trump’s retracted Kharg threat and “deal nearly done” framing. Brent crude fell 3% to $96.50 a barrel from Thursday’s $99.50 close. UK 10-year gilt yields ease to 5…
Starmer Cabinet Iran Engagement Eases on Trump Cancellation; India Pressure Adds UK-Indo-Pacific Variable
Sir Keir Starmer’s Cabinet engagement on the Iran crisis eases Friday following Trump’s Thursday-evening cancellation of the threatened strikes. The Wednesday and Thursday emergency Cobra convenings coordinated UK response to the IRGC stri…
Burnham Makerfield Friday: 6 Days to Polling; Trump Iran Cancellation Eases Defence-Pivot Pressure
Andy Burnham’s Makerfield by-election campaign closes Friday with 6 days to polling day on 18 June. The Trump Thursday-evening cancellation of the threatened Iran strikes partially defuses Reform UK’s “defence first” campaign pressure thro…
Streeting Cabinet-Bargain Position Holds Through Trump Iran Cancellation; Burnham 80-10 Lead Unchanged
Senior allies of Wes Streeting continue to expect to abandon his Labour leadership bid and fall in behind Andy Burnham if the Greater Manchester mayor wins the Makerfield by-election. The Friday Trump Iran-strikes cancellation does not cha…
Reeves Cost-of-Living Fiscal Headroom Eases on Trump Cancellation; Gilt Yields Slip to 5.02%, Brent at $96.50
Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s cost-of-living package faces an eased Friday-open macro backdrop as Brent crude pulled back to $96.50 on Trump’s Iran-strikes cancellation and gilt yields eased to 5.02%. Friends of Reeves believe there is a worl…