FTSE 100 Opens Lower on Iran-Israel Re-Escalation; Brent Back Above $97, Gilt Yields Push Back to 5.04%
London stocks are set to open lower Thursday at around 10,380 as the renewed US-Iran strikes exchange drives risk-off flows. Brent crude jumped 2.9% to $97.20 a barrel from Wednesday’s $94.50 close. UK 10-year gilt yields push back to 5.04% above the 5% line, reversing Wednesday’s break below. Sterling weakens to $1.3405; gold firms to $4,495. The VIX is up 10% as the war-risk premium rebuilds. Defence stocks BAE Systems, Babcock and Melrose are likely to lead Thursday gainers.
The Thursday open reflects the renewed Iran-Israel exchange pattern restarting overnight. If the exchange continues through the week, Brent likely tests $100-105 within 48-72 hours and the FTSE could fall toward the 10,310 Monday-low level. The 5.04% gilt yield is back above the 5% line; the Bank of England MPC’s next decision later this month is the binding macro variable. The Ofgem October price-cap reset depends on Brent staying in the $88-95 range through mid-summer; the current $97.20-and-rising trajectory points to a meaningful price-cap rise rather than a roll-back. UK Treasury / Bank of England fiscal-policy positioning is back under direct macro pressure.