FTSE 100 Closes at 10,395, Down 0.29% on Trump Kharg Threat; Brent Surges to $99.50, VIX Spikes 20%
The FTSE 100 closed at 10,395 on Thursday, down 0.29% on the day, holding up better than expected as defence-stock gains offset oil-major mixed performance. Brent crude surged 5.3% to $99.50 a barrel on Trump’s Kharg Island seizure threat. UK 10-year gilt yields pushed to 5.07%. Sterling weakened to $1.3395; gold firmed to $4,520. The VIX spiked 20% as the war-risk premium materially rebuilt. Defence stocks BAE Systems, Babcock and Melrose led the FTSE gainers; oil majors BP and Shell mixed on the Brent surge vs broader risk-off.
The Thursday close reflects the Trump-Kharg-seizure threat pricing. If the threat is operationalised, Brent likely tests $115-125 within 48-72 hours and the FTSE could fall toward the 10,250 next support level. The 5.07% gilt yield is materially above the 5% line; the Bank of England MPC’s next decision later this month is the binding macro variable. The Ofgem October price-cap reset depends on Brent staying in the $88-95 range through mid-summer; the current $99.50-and-rising trajectory points to a meaningful price-cap rise rather than a roll-back. UK Treasury / Bank of England fiscal-policy positioning is now under direct macro pressure.