FTSE 100 Closes at 10,425, Up 0.39%; Brent at $94.50, Gilt Yields Break Below 5% Line
The FTSE 100 closed at 10,425 on Wednesday, up 0.39% on the day, as Trump’s “progress toward nuclear talks” framing extended the bilateral Iran-Israel pause. Brent crude fell 2.4% to $94.50 a barrel. UK 10-year gilt yields fell to 4.99% — below the 5% line for the first time since Friday. Sterling firmed to $1.3430. Gold eased to $4,475. The VIX is down 7% to 24.80. Defence stocks BAE Systems, Babcock and Melrose pulled back further; oil majors BP and Shell led the FTSE losers on the Brent slide.
The Wednesday close reflects the Trump-progress-toward-nuclear-talks scenario pricing. If the framework deal formally locks in over the coming week, Brent likely tests $88-92 within 48-72 hours and the FTSE could push toward 10,500. If Lebanon-front operations break the Iran pause and Iran follows through on “crushing reprisal”, Brent likely tests $105-110 and the FTSE falls toward the 10,250 next support. The 4.99% gilt yield is below the 5% line for the first time since Friday; the Bank of England MPC’s next decision later this month is the binding macro variable. The Ofgem October price-cap reset depends on Brent staying in the $88-95 range through mid-summer; the current $94.50 trajectory is back inside that range.