FTSE 100 Closes at 10,310, Down 0.91%; Brent Breaks Above $100 on IRGC Strike
The FTSE 100 closed at 10,310 on Monday, down 0.91% on the day, as the IRGC strike on Israeli Nevatim and Tel Nof air bases and the broken Lebanon ceasefire drove risk-off flows. Brent crude broke above $100 a barrel for the first time since mid-May, closing at $100.50, up nearly 5% on the day. UK 10-year gilt yields rose to 5.08%. Sterling weakened to $1.3380; gold firmed to $4,515. The VIX is up 14% as the war-risk premium materially rebuilds. Defence stocks BAE Systems, Babcock and Melrose led the FTSE gainers.
The Monday close confirms the structural risk-off pattern: Brent breaking above $100 is the principal binding macro signal. If the IRGC strikes continue through the week and Hormuz stays closed, Brent likely tests $105-110 within 48-72 hours and the FTSE could fall toward the 10,250 next support level. The 5.08% gilt yield is materially above the 5% line; the Bank of England MPC’s next decision later this month is the binding macro variable. The Ofgem October price-cap reset depends on Brent staying in the $88-95 range through mid-summer; the current $100.50 trajectory points to a meaningful price-cap rise rather than a roll-back. UK Treasury / Bank of England fiscal-policy positioning is now under direct macro pressure.