US-Iran Strikes Continue as Hormuz Stays Closed; Brent Set to Gap Higher on Sunday Asia Open
The US-Iran overnight strikes exchange continued to ripple through regional positioning Saturday as the Strait of Hormuz remained closed. Kuwait was targeted by seven Iranian missiles overnight Friday-Saturday in the third IRGC strike on the country in a fortnight. The Iran framework deal sits in operational impasse pending Tehran’s response to Trump’s tougher edits on enriched uranium disposal and Hormuz governance. Brent crude is set to gap higher on the Sunday Asia open if Hormuz stays closed through the weekend; the Friday close was $95.80 a barrel.
Around 20% of global oil supply transits the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian closure is the principal binding constraint on the Brent price path through the framework-deal uncertainty. If the closure is sustained through Sunday, Brent likely tests $105-115 within 48-72 hours of the Monday London open. The framework as originally drafted would extend the ceasefire by 60 days, reopen the Strait of Hormuz with no tolls, lift the US naval blockade of Iranian ports, allow Iran to sell oil freely under sanctions waivers, and start new nuclear-programme talks. The two Trump edit areas — enriched-uranium disposal pathway and Hormuz governance — are the most structurally binding parts of the framework.