FTSE 100 Set for Weaker Thursday Open as Geopolitical Uncertainty Persists
London stocks are poised for a weaker Thursday open at around 10,380 as investors weigh mixed signals from Middle East peace negotiations. Brent crude is steady at $96.50 a barrel; UK 10-year gilt yields hold at 5.03%, slightly above the 5% line. Sterling weakens to $1.3400; gold firms to $4,485. The VIX is up 1.5%. Defence stocks are likely to bounce on the unresolved Iran framework; oil majors BP and Shell are mixed on the Brent steady-state. UK services PMI weakness from Wednesday continues to weigh.
The Thursday open reflects the mixed picture — Lebanon conditional ceasefire is positive but the Israeli strikes Wednesday and the unresolved Iran framework keep the war-risk premium elevated. The 5.03% gilt yield is back above the 5% line that has been the binding macro-political resistance level for the Reeves Treasury through May. The Bank of England MPC’s rate-cut path is now uncertain again; if Brent stays above $95 through mid-June, the next rate cut may be delayed. The Ofgem October price-cap reset depends on Brent staying in the $88-95 range through mid-summer. The Bank of England’s next decision lands in two weeks.