FTSE 100 Stalls at Wednesday Open as Traders Await Iran Breakthrough; Gilt Yields Slip Below 5%
London stocks are set to open marginally higher Wednesday at around 10,455 as investors await an Iran breakthrough and a busy slate of corporate and macro data. Brent crude is steady at $94.10 a barrel after Tuesday’s 4% slide. UK 10-year gilt yields ease to 4.98%, slipping below the 5% line for the first time since Friday. Sterling holds $1.3430; gold steadies at $4,465. The VIX continues to fall, down a further 2%. Defence stocks BAE Systems, Babcock and Melrose are likely to give back further; oil majors BP and Shell are mixed. PMQs at noon is expected to lead on Iran.
The Wednesday open reflects the structural de-escalation Trump engineered with the Tuesday intervention but with caution pending Iran’s formal re-engagement with the framework. If the Trump edits to the deal text are accepted by the Iranian side, Brent is likely to test $88-92 within 48-72 hours and the FTSE could push toward the 10,690 April high. The 4.98% gilt yield is back below the 5% line that has been the binding macro-political resistance level for the Reeves Treasury through May. The Bank of England MPC’s rate-cut path is back on track. The Ofgem October price-cap reset would absorb most of the July 13% hike on a sustained Brent decline. Wednesday’s ONS macro data set is the next domestic data point.