Russian Summer Offensive Drone Barrages Continue; Ukrainian Air Defence Under Sustained Pressure
Russian forces fired drone and missile barrages at Ukrainian cities and infrastructure overnight as part of the early phase of the anticipated Russian summer offensive. Ukrainian air defences shot down a majority of incoming drones but Patriot interceptor stockpiles remain constrained. President Volodymyr Zelensky continues to press the United States for more interceptors; US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told reporters Saturday that the US will “find a way” to help Ukraine defend itself. Ukrainian deep-strike operations against Russian refining infrastructure continue.
The Ukraine air-defence picture is the second-order victim of the Iran-deal collapse: if the Iran framework holds, NATO-side Patriot replenishment to Ukraine can resume in volume; if it collapses, Ukraine faces a sustained interceptor gap through the summer. Each Patriot PAC-3 MSE interceptor costs roughly $4 million and is produced at a constrained rate of around 600 per year industry-wide. Russian Geran-2 attack drones are produced at a rate of around 5,000 per month. Ukrainian strikes on the Saratov Oil Refinery and a Caspian military base over the weekend opened a new operational direction targeting Russian-Iranian Shahed drone-delivery infrastructure. Romania’s Friday expulsion of the Russian consul general remains the highest-tier NATO diplomatic response to a Russian airspace incursion since the war began.