Sunday Asia Open Sets Up Monday London Pivot on Trump Iran Decision
The Sunday Asia open is the next macro pivot point ahead of the Monday London session. FTSE 100 futures, S&P 500 futures and Brent crude will price the probability of a signed US-Iran deal during the Asia session. The FTSE 100 closed Friday at 10,460, up 0.62% on the day and 1.4% on the week; Brent crude finished the week at $93.80 a barrel, its largest weekly fall in two months. UK 10-year gilt yields fell below 5% on Friday for the first time since 13 May. Sterling firmed to $1.3430. The Trump “changes to the draft” signal Saturday adds caution to the open.
The bull case for Monday: Trump signs over the weekend, Brent moves to $80-90, FTSE tests resistance at 10,690 (April high), gilt yields drop another 10-15 basis points. The bear case: Trump rejects, the war restarts or extends, Brent jumps to $105-110, FTSE falls 2-3%, gilt yields back above 5%. The Iranian-state-media “billions in frozen funds” framing is the highest-level Iranian commitment to the framework architecture; if mirrored by Trump movement Sunday or Monday, the bull case materialises. The Bank of England MPC is widely expected to keep interest rates on a downward path; the 4.98% gilt yield is consistent with two more 25-basis-point Bank Rate cuts priced in for the second half of 2026. The Ofgem energy price-cap reset in October would absorb a meaningful share of the July 13% hike if Brent stays in the $80-95 range through mid-summer.