FTSE Weekend Recap: Brent Records Biggest Weekly Fall in Two Months; Gilt Yields Below 5%
UK and European markets enter the weekend on a measurably easier macro footing. The FTSE 100 closed Friday at 10,460, up 0.62% on the day and 1.4% on the week. Brent crude finished the week at $93.80 a barrel — the largest weekly fall in two months on rising US-Iran deal probability. UK 10-year gilt yields fell 4 basis points on Friday to 4.98% — below the 5% threshold for the first time since 13 May and well off the 5.18% post-mini-Budget 2026 peak. Sterling firmed to $1.3430. Trump’s overnight no-decision on the Iran deal adds caution to the Sunday open in Asia.
The gilt-yield move below 5% is the biggest macro signal of the week for UK fiscal policy. The Brent fall — from above $100 a barrel last week to $93.80 on Friday — would feed through to Ofgem’s next quarterly price-cap reset (October) and roll back part of the 13% July hike if Brent stays in the $80-95 range through mid-summer. Reeves’s cost-of-living package now lands into a measurably easier macro backdrop than the brief was drafted for. The Sunday-open risk is Trump rejecting the framework deal outright; the bull case is Trump signing on Sunday or Monday. The Asian session opens with FTSE futures, US S&P futures, and Brent all sensitive to a weekend Trump tweet. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey is widely expected to keep interest rates on a downward path; the 4.98% gilt yield is consistent with two more 25-basis-point Bank Rate cuts priced in for the second half of 2026.