Asia Stocks Surge, Brent Falls Below $95 on Iran Truce Deal Hopes
Asian stock markets surged on Friday and Brent crude oil fell to $94.50 a barrel as investor sentiment was lifted by expectations of a deal between the United States and Iran. Japan’s Nikkei, South Korea’s KOSPI and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng all closed higher; pan-European futures pointed slightly higher into the London open. The FTSE 100 opens around 10,450, up 0.5% from Thursday’s 10,396 close. The dollar softened against the euro and the yen as safe-haven flows reversed. The 10-year US Treasury yield eased modestly from the 4.50% Thursday close.
The Asian-session move is the cleanest single-day repricing of the Iran-deal probability since the early-May peace-talk track began. The catalysts: Vance’s “close to a deal” framing overnight; the 60-day MoU reportedly reached and pending Trump approval; the absence of further Iran-US strikes in the past 24 hours; and reduced concerns about Strait of Hormuz disruption. Brent at $94.50 is more than 25% below the post-war peak of $126. If the deal holds and is signed, Brent would likely fall to the $80-90 range that the market would consider consistent with a confirmed Hormuz reopening. The risk to the Asian rally is a Trump rejection or a Tehran counter-walkout; the latter would re-anchor the war-risk premium quickly.